tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42267856007494996762024-03-17T20:02:52.263-07:00INDIA UNDER ATTACK & OTHER MUSINGS !!BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.comBlogger172125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-33211727319353778042019-08-02T05:05:00.000-07:002019-08-02T05:13:43.643-07:00HALAL - THE TRUTH YOU WERE NOT TOLD ABOUT<br />
We are led to believe that Halal is just a method of cutting meat – there is Halal and then there is “Jhatka” ( a single strike ). <b>No, the Muslims do not wish to tell the truth.</b> If this be the case, why will Muslims not eat meat cut by a non- Muslim in the method prescribed – which is : “killing through a cut to the jugular vein, carotid artery and windpipe and all blood is drained from the carcass.”<br />
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To be truly Halal <br />
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1) <b>The meat has to be cut by an adult Muslim</b><br />
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2) <b>The slaughterer should face towards the qiblah and the animal’s neck should be turned to face the qiblah. (Qiblah is Kaaba, Mecca – the direction to which Muslims turn at during prayer.</b><br />
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3) <b>The phrase bismillah (‘in the name of God’) must be uttered just before slaughtering an animal.</b><br />
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If you read this carefully, <b>HALAL essentially is an offering to Allah</b> and hence, it becomes a religious offering.<br />
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Lets turn the discussion around : <i>These two questions were asked by Muslims</i>. <br />
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1. <a href="http://www.darulifta-deoband.com/home/en/Food--Drinks/5947">Can we (Muslims) eat the food items given in temples?</a><br />
This question was asked and a Fatwa by Darul Uloom Deoband : “It is unlawful and haram to eat if it is surely known that the items were offered to their gods and goddesses or the items are impure. However, a Muslim should avoid going into temples.”<br />
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2. Another question was asked : <a href="http://www.darulifta-deoband.com/home/en/Food--Drinks/4227">can eating food at any hindu's ivitation is halal or haram ?</a><br />
Darul Uloom Deoband issued this Fatwa : “One can eat at a Hindu?s invitation provided one is sure that neither a haram (impure) agent is used in the food <b>nor it is offering of Hindu gods and goddesses</b>.”<br />
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<b>BOTTOM LINE</b>: A Muslim will not eat any food if there was a prayer involved invoking Hindu Gods & Goddess but Hindus are being forced to eat HALAL meat where prayer to Allah is invoked.<br />
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<b>SO THIS INJUSTICE MUST END. SAY NO TO HALAL.</b> <br />
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Meat is one thing. <i>How are peanuts etc getting Halal certified ?</i><br />
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Any food is halal if NO ALCOHOL is used as flavour / artificial flavour or even ethyl alcohol is used as a solvent or carrier and if the flavoring ingredients are not from Halal source.<br />
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Again – if this sounds ludicrous or confusing to you – it is meant to me so. <b>Because there is money to made</b>. For a product to be HALAL certified,<b> a Halal certification fee is to be paid</b>. And in the process, the Muslims have formed a cartel to infiltrate the food business with processes and certifications even in non Muslim countries. <br />
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Today as you eat<b> Non Vegetarian meal in any Indian airline or any restaurant (specially top end 5 star ones) – the meat is always Halal certified.</b> In a way the Muslims have <b>won the food jihad</b> in India (and indeed, many other non Muslim countries) by ensuring even Non Muslims eat meat that is a religious offering to Allah (ie HALAL).<br />
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There is major financial angle to this. <b>71% of India is non vegetarian</b> – yet most of the butchers (of goat meat) are Muslims – the Hindu butchers have been pushed away into oblivion. Hence the business of certifying Halal has benefitted Muslims in a Hindu majority country.<br />
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When a Hindu buys Halal meat he thinks nothing much – he thinks its just a way of cutting meat – he has been told that Halal cut is healthier option as the blood is drained etc – <b>he is not told the religious aspect of it at all</b>. And even if he knew, he thinks – “I am not going to turn Muslim after eating Halal meat – whats the fuss about?”<br />
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The fuss is – aggregating this behaviour has <b>led to loss of livelihood of Hindu butchers</b>.<br />
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<b>The possession of sharp knives and cutting instruments gets to be kept with Muslims</b> – this way during riots – Hindus are left with no weapons to fend for themselves. While the Muslim butchers are free to dispense with their myriad knives amongst their people.<br />
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<b>Let us have HINDU CERTIFIED products in the market. Let us push the hotels to give us NON HALAL food and insist on it. Let there be a law against being force fed Allah’s offering which is HALAL on NON MUSLIMS.</b><br />
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Even vegetarian items such as Unilever’s MAGNUM icecream bars are HALAL certified. Boycott all such products. <br />
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Say<b> NO TO HALAL</b>. Say <b>YES to HINDU CERTIFIED Products</b>. <br />
BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-72432518985651082652019-03-12T05:18:00.000-07:002019-03-12T05:18:58.263-07:00RAHUL GANDHI & PRIYANKA VADRA ARE CATHOLICS, NOT HINDU.This will not be a long post. And given the credibility factor, I will quote only two articles - One British : The Guardian and One US : New York Times.
Let us start with The Guardian and its article : <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/24/sonia-rahul-gandhi-caught-in-dance-with-destiny-india-politics">Are Sonia and Rahul Gandhi caught in a dance with destiny they can't escape?</a> written by IAN JACK.
Excerpt from the article : <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kdw2x5hSq3Y/XIefoVOLC6I/AAAAAAAABOg/qsUmQNBzsRIUi2MmlwJtJYZgjtm4CrRqwCLcBGAs/s1600/jawaharlal-nehru.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kdw2x5hSq3Y/XIefoVOLC6I/AAAAAAAABOg/qsUmQNBzsRIUi2MmlwJtJYZgjtm4CrRqwCLcBGAs/s320/jawaharlal-nehru.jpg" width="320" height="238" data-original-width="800" data-original-height="594" /></a></div>
At the start of his passionate relationship with Edwina Mountbatten, Nehru wrote to her every day and went on writing weekly or fortnightly until the day she died. The contents of his letters remain unknown, or at least unpublished, but one of her replies suggests the deepest intimacy: "<b>I think I am not interested in sex as sex. There must be so much more to it, beauty of spirit and form … But I think you and I are in the minority</b>!"
Likewise with religion: long before Alastair Campbell, the Nehru-Gandhis did not do God. "The spectacle of what is called religion … in India and elsewhere <b>has filled me with horror</b>," Nehru wrote, "and I have <b>frequently condemned it</b> and wished to make a clean sweep of it."
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Rajiv Gandhi was only slightly less pliable when I interviewed him in 1985. <b>No, he never prayed to God. No, he'd never believed in God</b>. He conceded that his mother had gone a little off the rails towards the end of her life by taking up with swamis and yogis and consulting astrologers (she had premonitions, correctly, of a violent death), but she had brought him up to be agnostic and "secular."
Now I move onto New York Times article : <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/02/27/world/sonia-gandhi-the-foreigner-startles-the-political-pundits.html">Sonia Gandhi, the 'Foreigner,' Startles the Political Pundits</a> by JOHN BURNS.
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Excerpt from The Guardian : Rajiv married the daughter of a building contractor from a small town near Turin. Nehru's great-grandson, <b>Rahul, is therefore a quarter Kashmiri, a quarter Parsi and half Italian.</b>
Excerpt from NYT : Initially the Hindu nationalists seemed perplexed by Mrs. Gandhi's role, paying her scant attention. Then, as the polls showed the Congress Party's support picking up, men like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, who would lead a Hindu nationalist Government, became increasingly shrill, warning of the dangers of a ''Rome Raj.'' Few doubted that this was code for<b> Mrs. Gandhi's Roman Catholicism, a faith in which her son, Rahul, 27, and her daughter, Priyanka, 26, were also raised.</b>
Now NOTE THE FOLLOWING :
<b>JN Nehru : Religion fills me with horror and I condemn it.<i></i></b>
<b>Rajiv Gandhi : He never prayed, nor did he believe in GOD.<i></i></b>
<b>Rahul Gandhi & Priyanka Vadra : Rahul & Priyanka were raised as CATHOLICS.<i></i></b>
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How long are you willing to be fooled by Rahul Gandhi's and Priyanka Vadra's temple visits. <b>This family has never believed in Hinduism. NEVER !!</b>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-50780906697205844122019-03-10T23:15:00.001-07:002019-03-10T23:15:46.015-07:00This is a test message. Coming back to blog after several years. Checking for <b>caps</b>.
Checking for <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/view-heres-an-opportunity-for-india-to-unbalance-the-china-pakistan-equation/articleshow/68348532.cms">links</a>
Checking for <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-haVurz9WFHw/XIX8_4UYN6I/AAAAAAAABOU/KTgOh-19MC0i3gsSMqomg256gaZsEju8QCLcBGAs/s1600/china%2Bclaim%2Bon%2Bs%2Bchina%2Bsea.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-haVurz9WFHw/XIX8_4UYN6I/AAAAAAAABOU/KTgOh-19MC0i3gsSMqomg256gaZsEju8QCLcBGAs/s320/china%2Bclaim%2Bon%2Bs%2Bchina%2Bsea.png" width="320" height="320" data-original-width="1600" data-original-height="1600" /></a></div>
Checking !! BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-51568903673711448692013-08-07T21:04:00.001-07:002013-08-07T21:04:24.055-07:00WHY INDIAN DEFENSE MINISTER IS OUT TO PROTECT PAKISTAN ARMY FROM ITS HENIOUS ACT OF KILLING 5 INDIAN SOLDIERS?<b><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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THE ANSWER IS NOBEL PEACE PRIZE FOR PRIME MINSTER MANMOHAN SINGH</b>
MY HYPOTHESIS:
My two bit as to why the <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Under-fire-Antony-to-make-fresh-statement-in-Parliament/articleshow/21694228.cms">Indian Defense Min tried to put Pakistan off the hook </a>for its dastardly act in killing of 5 soldiers:
1. USA is in the process of withdrawal of forces and is facing serious heat on its flank, it has told India not to do anything to heat matters in LoC that will make Pakistan direct more Army personnel from its Afghan border to Indian border - making Haqqanis et al go in and out more easily to blow ofF NATO and coalition troops.
2. As a quid pro quo, it has offered Indian Govt a way out - a Nobel Peace prize for PM Manmohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif for a joint declaration and treaty (along the lines of the 1994 Prize - <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1994/">Arafat, Perez and Rabin</a>). For a beleaguered UPA government, this would have been an imp coup de etat. However Pakistan Army is in no mood for Nawaz to be given a Nobel Prize, much less, sign a treaty with India. It acted on its own to derail the peace talk.
Hence Indian government is trying to get Pakistan off the hook. <b>The question is - is this in India's self interest?</b>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-20167729799399900052013-04-05T02:33:00.002-07:002013-04-07T23:10:32.237-07:00KALI (KILO AMPERE LINEAR INJECTOR) - TESTED IN SIACHEN ?<b>Uncorfirmed report but makes for a compelling reading.</b>
<b>KALI WEAPON:<i></i></b>
He came to Delhi and popped up the idea to use <b>avalanche</b> to kill enemies. Initially he was snubbed but his elaborate and detailed plan presentation convinced the Director to take it up with PM and NSA. PM though have little interests in technical details but wanted to know any political and diplomatic repercussions. It was a cease-fire scenario all along LoC and AGPL for many reasons and he didn't want to India being blamed for violation. Also he was not sure about such a ambitious plan using technology and that too from DRDO but he gave that to NSA to ponder and reply. Director RAW and NSA were old time pals and NSA was taken into confidence by RAW much before that meeting at RCR. Director RAW also convinced the NSA to persuade PM for this op being highly classified and not to be shared with anyone except whom RAW thinks appropriate. PM gave in after NSA's assurance even though he couldn't find any scope of political mileage out of it. But NSA was smart enough to show the PM much larger picture. Permission granted and a task team was constituted. NSA was made to head the team with direct reporting to PM. Director RAW handpicked people from RAW, DRDO (LASTEC and SASE), Army and Airforce for the operation. Op was christened "<b>White Wash</b>". He even managed to pass it through always cunning finance controllers without any suspicion.
KALI also known as an avatar of Hindu Goddess Durga. KALI Ma (Mother KALI) is ruthless destroyer of the enemies. She is shown as four handed lady wearing garlands made of heads of enemies she has killed. One right hand holds a sword and other right hand holds a trident. Upper left hand holds a amputated and bleeding head of one enemy and lower left hand holds a bowl where blood from enemy head is collected. So the name suggests actual intentions and idea of DRDO behind this.
6 NLI BN HQ was marked as "test" area and a team of RAW and SASE visited "S" post of Indian Army at 21,000 feet in Siachen glacier from where battalion HQ of 6 NLI was visible. SASE team mapped the area and identified possible trigger points to bury the "test" area under tons of snow. Now the task force was facing a huge challenge of taking up the heavy laser gun, the gen set and other support equipments up there at 21,000 feet. Also heavy noise and vibrations of the equipment could also trigger an avalanche on our own troops. So, it was decided to use air platform for KALI. <b>Two IL- 76s </b>were deputed to ARC (Aviation Research Centre) from Indian Air force. ARC is aviation arm of RAW. Immediately those were flown by ARC pilots to Charbatia Airbase near Cuttack in Odisha. These IL-76s were refitted with KALI-50000W on board. It is much more powerful version than what RAW officer saw at Jawahar tunnel. Techically it is a pulsed accelerator of ~30 MeV electron energy, 50-100 ns pulse time, 90kA Current and 200 GW Power level. After refitting these IL76s were flown to Sarsawa AF station and parked. No one was allowed to go near those and were guarded by fierce looking Garud commandos of IAF.
H hour or the time of action was decided as 1200 hrs. It was suppose to take 2 hours to soften up the trigger points and then start the avalanche around 2 PM. Most avalanches occur around late noons, so was that planned timing. An observation party was though deployed at Indian Army's "S" post to monitor, feed and give directions if any to master control room aboard one of the IL 76s. Most of the DRDO scientists working with KALI and other communication engineering projects were South Indians and had never seen altitudes over 1000 feet. They were most uncomfortable when some of them were told to hold at 21,000 feet for 1 month. SASE guys were not so uncomfortable as they always are in snow and studying snow but still 21,000 feet is an altitude which can freeze the shit in you.
But they were lucky to find some brave and lunatics to accept that challenge. They were given high altitude training and proper acclimatization along with new inducting army units for deployments in north and central glaciers. Army instructors and jawans had seen many civilians at Siachen base camp earlier but never ever they saw some civilians training as hard as them.
The only problem with air platform was the very long shot for "<b>laser fire</b>" and thus problems in polarization (keeping laser intensity focused at target). And this operation required high precision "shooting". IL 76's were supposed to fly at 30000 feet and well away from Siachen. So BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre), Mumbai was roped in for help regarding polarization. After studying the requirements it was suggested to shift the H-hour either in early morning or late evening to avoid any refraction. Though both the times were highly unusual for natural occurrence of avalanches but it was decided to start "firing" around 4 in the morning, <b>a day before Mr Zardari would be visiting Delhi.
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On the d-day IL-76 flew from Sarsawa and soon positioned themselves at the required altitude and pre designated coordinates. <b>1 AWACS and 1 IL-78 mid air refuler took off from Agra and were given co-ordinates and call signs to help 2 classified flying objects over Uttrakhand skies. RAW ops are always strictly need to know basis.</b> AWACS staff was little puzzled seeing few plain cloth men on board overseeing them but nobody questioned. <b>AWACS were also tasked to vector in 6 Mirages from Gwalior and 4 SU 30s from Lohegaon (Pune) in support of those 2 classified flying objects. Mirages and SU 30s were airborne since 2 in the morning and taking turns to scan the area around 2 unknown birds.</b>
At 4 in the morning the shooting started and as expected early morning rare environment helped a lot in precision. SASE team had earmarked the points after detailed analysis of images at satellite data reception centre and 3-D Terrain Visualization Center. DRDO's team KALI was shooting at right places with laser gun being fed with precise coordinates. By 5:40 AM massive snow started hurtling towards plains where 6 NLI BN HQ was situated. It was a dry snow avalanche and very soon massive slabs of snow attained speed of around 300km/hour. Outposts of 6 NLI troops and other Pakistani troops must have seen the mass of snow coming down and might have tried to alert the HQ. But that massive avalanche not only had snapped the communication lines but also blasted away some outposts. And 300km/hr is a speed coupled with thousand tones of cruising mass which can beat any wit or training. Even Indian observation party at "S" post was horrified to see such large avalanche. Within 10-15 minutes everything was covered with 80-100 feet of snow. Indian soldiers looking that were horrified too and it was the real "tandav" of KALI who as per Hindu mythology has defeated "Shiva" the greatest and official destroyer of the Universe.
2 brand new MI 17V5s helicopters flew from Thoise airbase to "A" post at 8 AM. 6 Cheetah Helicopters were also ready at Siachen Base camp 1 hour before 2 Mi-17s i.e at 7 AM . 6 Cheetahs flew after gap of 5 minutes with each other and destination was "S" post. Task was to pick the group of "civilians" and their equipments who were dropped a month ago on postal-stamp size helipad of post "S". Cheetahs were suppose to bring those civilians to post "A" at 16,000 feet from where they'll board Mi17s to climb down to Thoise. KALI carrying IL76s were back at their base Charbatia and so were their escorts.
Brigade Commander 323 Pakistani brigade was jolted out of his sleep by his staff with the news. He was immediately out for rescue and relief work after informing Maj. Gen. Muzammil Hussain, Commander FCNA who in turn informed Lt Gen Khalid Nawaz Khan, GoC, X corps. Soon Pakistani news channels started reporting the tragedy which has struck PA. The first rescue team led by Brigade Commander himself couldn't believe what they saw. There was just snow all around at the same place where 6 NLI was having its BN HQ few hours back. There was no communication signal either. FCNA Signal unit detachment, which was summoned to take part in relief ops were trying to get in touch with border outposts of the unit. Some of them perished in the avalanche and most of them were "out" of signal due to large scale destruction of communication lines. Brigade intelligence officer gave record of last evening roll call details as mentioned in sit-rep (situational report) of the BN HQ as sent by 2 in Command Maj Zaka UL Haq. There were 124 army personnel's including BN commander Lt Col Tanvir Ul Hassan, Cap (Doc) Haleem Ullah and Major Zaka. There were 11 civilians also including tailor, barber, porters etc. In total 135 men were under snow. Initial estimate showed a layer of 80 ft snow which is beyond reach of any sniffer dog or digging machines.
<b>It was a crippling blow to Pakistan's tactical position in Siachen.</b>
With Pakistan Army occupying only downhill features in Siachen and Soltoro ranges India can take out all those positions without firing a bullet and no collateral damage. IL 76 mounted KALI avatar is very expansive as of now and not viable against small border outposts. DRDO is confident of developing a handheld or compact version soon for usage of KALI against such targets. <b>KALI is also very useful and effective in "frying" up electronic circuits from considerable distance and with no human-eye visible rays. That can have wide range of application form missile defense system to satellite killer or snapping out communication of a moving armored column or making an AWACS a sitting duck. </b>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-37949535863371518172012-06-15T03:07:00.000-07:002012-06-15T03:07:42.276-07:00TRIBUTE TO SHRI MALOY KRISHNA DHAR<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Mr Maloy Krishna Dhar, spy extraordinaire, author is no more with us. Many of the articles I have written were from his books and through e-mail correspondences shared with him. We were to meet in Kolkata, that never happened.
This is one the articles I wrote - with inputs from his book:
WHEN DIRE STRAITS SANG - BROTHERS IN ARMS - AM SURE THEY DID NOT HAVE THIS "ARMS" IN MIND.
Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto had alleged that elements of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) "continue the alliance with both the Taliban and al Qaeda to this very day" on the premise that Pakistan’s security requires "strategic depth" in the shape of a friendly or pliant Afghanistan. In an interview to Yale Global, Bhutto said that the ISI was continuing to adhere to the old arrangement, "even if it means supporting fanatics." Daily Times, August 29, 2007
Benazir Bhutto had also said the Pakistani army decided to overthrow her in 1996 after she announced plans to crack down on terrorism.
She had said she first heard the name of Osama bin Laden in 1989, when he sent USD 10 million to the ISI to help it overthrow her first government.
ISI man Khalid Khawaja says that Osama financed the move against Bhutto. This money, Khawaja said, then was handed to Nawaz, the Chief Minister of Punjab. Nawaz Sharif met Osama and said “I love Jihad”.
Given that ISI is a organ of Pakistan Army, it is important to understand that this relationship (nexus with Al Qaeda and various terrorist groups including Taliban) existed from the very beginning and continues till this day. So much so I am going to state this – there is no difference between Pakistan Army, ISI, Taliban, Al Qaeda and terrorist groups it supports specially Lashkar e Taiba (LeT), Jasih e Mohammad (JeM), Lashkar e Jhangvi (LeJ) and Harkat Ul Jihadi Islami (HUJI & HUJI – B). The overt arms are Pakistan Army and ISI and covert arms are the rest including elements of ISI.
I WILL KEEP ON REPEATING THIS: PAKISTAN ARMY HAS EMBEDDED ITS SOLDIERS, EX-SOLDIERS, DESERTERS INTO THE RANKS OF TALIBAN, LeT AND OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS FOR PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY OF STATE ROLE.
MR. ZARDARI - STATELESS ACTORS IS NOT EVEN AN EXCUSE THAT WILL BEFUDDLE US ANY MORE. ISI IS AN ARM OF PAKISTAN ARMY AND THEY LAUNCH AND TRAIN THESE TERRORISTS IN THE LAND CALLED PAKISTAN. HENCE, THEY ARE STATE ACTIONS AND ACTORS. EITHER YOU ARREST THESE "STATELESS" ACTORS, OR STATE THAT YOU HAVE LOST GOVERNANCE OVER THEM. IN THAT CASE INDIA HAS THE RIGHT TO ARREST / KILL THESE STATELESS ACTORS AND OBLITERATE THEIR TRAINING AND BREEDING GROUND.
New York Times: The intelligence service of Pakistan, a crucial American ally in the war on terrorism, has had an indirect but longstanding relationship with Al Qaeda, turning a blind eye for years to the growing ties between Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, according to American officials.
On Lashkar e Taiba : NEW YORKER reports the group’s bank accounts remain unmolested by the Pakistani government, which gives Lashkar quite a lot of running room; on the other, the group resents the accommodations reached between Pakistan’s government and the United States. There is little doubt that the Army and I.S.I. continue to use Jamat’s legitimate front as a vehicle for prosecution of a long-running “double game” with the United States, in which Pakistan pledges fealty to American counterterrorism goals while at the same time facilitating guerrilla violence against India.
A little history to see how they (ISI - Al Qaeda - Terror groups) worked in tandem. We will take two countries here – PHILIPPINES and BOSNIA.
RAMZI YOUSEF
KHALID SHEIKH MD.
But before that – a tale of two individuals – Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (both related to each other). Both are Pakistani citizen though Khalid was born in Kuwait to Pakistani Balochi parents, his first passport was from Pakistan. After 9/11 people tried to pass Khalid Sheikh as a Kuwaiti citizen.
I have deliberately kept Omar Saeed Sheikh out of this - I am yet to make up my mind about him. That he is a coveted ISI asset is without doubt. But is he also a British intelligence asset?
Khalid & Ramzi were nurtured, sheltered and trained by ISI in its Peshawar camp and received training in Khowst camp. Khalid, a brilliant student, became deeply involved with ISI & Al Qaeda.
In 1993 Khalid and Ramzi planned the New York city World Trade Centre bombing which was successfully carried out by Ramzi in Feb 26th, 1993. After the bombing, he came back to Pakistan and met Khalid Sheikh and stayed in ISI safe houses.
While in Pakistan, both planned to assassinate Benazir Bhutto in collaboration with some ISI operatives. ISI masterminded the assassination attempt – which did not take place (Note – the constant Al Qaeda ISI hand in the assassination attempt on Benazir. READ THIS QUIXOTIC BLOG ON BENAZIR AND ASSASINATION)
After the failed attempt, Ramzi moved to Phillipines. By this time Ramzi became a coveted ISI asset.
Nur Misauri, a professor of University of Philippines formed Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). After suffering reversals at the hand of Philippines Army, Nur fled to PAKISTAN. Nur was financially supported by the ISI and stayed in guest houses in Peshawar and Karachi. He helped MNLF recruit for Afghan Jihad. While Nur wanted autonomy, Salamat Hashmi wanted independence from Philippines and he too was actively supported by ISI – so much so that Salamat moved his organization (MILF) head quarters to LAHORE.
However, the most prominent face of Moro revolt is Aby Sayyaf group (ASG). It was originated in PAKISTAN when 400 Moro youths were inducted to Pakistan’s ISI managed camp.
MR ZARDARI : STATELESS ACTORS ????
At this time, 3 retired ISI officers were recruited by ISI and deputed to Mindanao under cover as religious teachers.
Simultaneously, Osama bin Laden (OBL) stationed his brother-in-law Md. Jamal Khalifa in Philippines. Al Qaeda and ISI came to a tacit understanding – to transplant Afghan jihad in South East Asia and create a distinct Islamic hub, as against the increasing Christian influence.
The other common thread binding them were students emanating from the madrassas of Karachi, Peshawar, Binori, Bannu & Quetta.
Khalifa set the Philippine operation rolling by setting up several front offices, trading units and charities. He was in charge of Saudi charity – Islamic International Relief Organization. With this he set up the terror network in Philippines and funded Al Qaeda operations in Jordan, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Committed Al Qaeda operatives – Zubair, Abu Oman and Sadiq Oden (Kenyan bombing fame) joined him.
Later Pakistani trainers, former ISI operatives, trained MILF and Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, the Malayan Kampulan Mujahideen, Jemmah Islamiyah and Lashkar Jundullah volunteers.
Linkages of ISI and Al Qaeda are very deep and stretches to the core positions of Islamic terrorism in the entire South East Asia.
Here the ISI – Al Qaeda team carried out several terrorist activities:
1. Ramzi bombed a mall at Cebu city
2. Ramzi masterminded the bombing of Miss Universe paegent
3. Wali Khan Shah, the ISI trained operative, bombed Greenbelt theatre in Manila
4. Audacious plan to assassinate Pope John Paul II and Bill Clinton (then US President) in Manila by these core group was uncovered in time and a major disaster was averted.
5. Trial run for 9-11 was hatched in Manila by ISI – Al Qaeda operatives. It was codenamed Operation Oplan Bojinka
OPLAN BOJINKA: This was conceived by Osama bin Laden, Khalifa, Ramzi,Khalid Sheikh and a faction of ISI. The grand plan was to sabotage 11 US flights over Pacific and they recruited Abu Sayyaf jehadists to carry out the plan.
An ISI trained Pakistani – Tareq Kaved Rana – resident of Paranque, Philippines, played an important role. He housed the conspirators at his place which he used to fabricate bombs.
Jamal, Ramzi & Khalid Sheikh guided the Manila cell of Al Qaeda. Another Pakistani terrorist, Wali Khan Shah (Greenway belt bomber) was entrusted by ISI to open terrorist cells in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. Another Pakistani born in Kuwait, Abdul Hakim Ali was trained by ISI in bomb making in Pehsawar. A product of Binori mosque and aligned to Harkat ul Ansar and trained by ISI – he joined the Philippines Al Qaeda cell.
MR ZARDARI : ISI AND "STATELESS ACTORS" !!
On December 11, Ramzi boarded Philippines Airline 434 on a Manila – Cebu – Tokyo route. He assembled a bomb and planted it under his seat and deplaned at Cebu. The bomb exploded on the 2nd leg and killed one passenger – the plane had to make emergency landing at Okinawa, Japan.
The dry run for Oplan Bojinka was successful.
However, the full plan could not be carried out, as the apartment that the conspirators were living in, mysteriously caught fire. They abandoned the plans after “incriminating evidence” was collected by federal agencies in Philippines. Ramzi promptly fled to Pakistan where he was housed by ISI in their safe houses.
Filipino intelligence reported that Wali Khan Shah had visited Pakistan embassy in Manila twice to meet the ISI station in charge.
On September 5th 1996, Ramzi, Murad and Shah were convicted of Oplan Bojinka.
Under intense pressure Ramzi was arrested from a guest house in Islamabad.
Under intense pressure, Khalid Sheikh was arrested after 9/11 – described as the mastermind of 9/11.
PAUSE FOR A MOMENT :
Part 1. WTC 1st attack was by Ramzi who was ISI asset.
Part 2. Oplan Bojinka the dry run to 9/11 was conceived by Ramzi, Khalid, Osama and "a section of" ISI.
Part 3.In 9/11 the only mastermind is Khalid Sheikh – no mention of ISI (ISI paid US lobbyists to have their name erased from the final 9/11 commission report)
PHILIPPINES TODAY : So you thought this is all past. News flashing now - "Wednesday, 03 Dec 2008, COTABATO: Authorities in the southern Philippines have arrested a Pakistani with alleged links to a Southeast Asian extremist group for making bombs, it was announced Wednesday. Muhammand Alpariz was arrested at his apartment in Shariff Kabunsuan town on the island of Mindanao by joint police and military operatives on Tuesday, local Army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Julieto Ando said. Found in his possession were 'two 60 millimetre mortar shells rigged to improvised explosives devices,' and two howitzer shells ready to be attached to similar bombs, said regional police head Chief Superintendent Pedro Tango.
THE GLOBAL TERROR ARRANGEMENTS AND CONNECTIONS CONTINUE AND BEHIND IT ALL ONLY ONE NAME : ISI
MR ZARDARI : WE KNOW HOW THESE "STATELESS" ACTORS HAVE BEEN FACILITATED BY ISI OVER THE YEARS. AND ISI IS A STATE INSTRUMENT.
Coming to the plot to assassinate Bill Clinton – why would ISI want to do it?
Let us go over to BOSNIA.
When the Serbs attacked and laid siege on the Bosnian Muslims there was a UN embargo in weapons transfers into the war zone. Pakistan flouted the UN ban by transferring weapons to the Bosnian Muslims. Pakistan amry planes were used for this purpose. ISI Lt Gen Javed Nasir claimed that despite the UN ban, he successfully airlifted sophisticated anti-tank guided missiles and this forced the Serbs to life the siege, much to the annoyance of the US government. Not only arms and ammunition, Javed Nasir facilitated the movement of jihadists from Paksitan – Afghan theatre into Bosnia, some of whom are today settled in Bosnia after marrying locally.
LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OF JAVED NASIR (RETD. ISI HEAD)- DOES HE LOOK ANY DIFFERENT FROM YOUR TALIBAN?
US President Bill Clinton threatened to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan will be declared a TERRORIST STATE if Sharif did not remove Javed Nisar from top post of ISI. Which Sharif did and averted his nation from being called a Terrorist State.
Recall a similar sacking of Mahmood Ahmed (AGAIN - ISI HEAD) who was implicated by Washington (FBI specifically) for passing on $100,000 to the 9/11 hijackers – who incidentally were trained by ISI.
What Pakistan does – it does the deed deemed essential for military objectives and if the heat is great – they sacrifice the ISI head – temporarily. They use him some time later for the global jihad.
ON MUMBAI ATTACKS - 3 POINTS:
1. The external section of ISI which reported to DG – ISI routinely executed plans of Army General A Kiyani and trained a few dozen Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) militants near Mangla Dam (close to Islamabad). And guess what : PAKISTAN'S SSG COMMANDO UNIT IS BASED THERE. These Mumbai attackers were part of this group.
2. n a major reshuffle of ISI a couple of months back the Director of External wing was changed placing the "game" in the hands of a low level ISI forward section head (a major) and the LeT's commander in chief - ZAKIUR RAHMAN. Zakiur was personally in Karachi to oversee the operation. Zaikur and ISI’s forward section in Karachi approved of the plan under which more than 10 men took Mumbai hostage for nearly 3 days and successfully established a reign of terror.
3. The PNS Iqbal – a naval commando unit in Karachi – was the main outlet of militants to be given training and through deserted points they were launched into the Arabian sea and on into the Indian region of Gujarat.
MR ZARDARI: STATELESS ACTORS & ACTIONS?
WHY HAS NO ONE YET COMMENTED ON THE ROLE OF ISI FORWARD SECTION HEAD AND ITS CONNECTION WITH ZAKIUR RAHMAN - SPL. THE COMPLICITY OF ISI's KARACHI FORWARD SECTION HEAD?
ISI’s global successes in penetrating several countries have emboldened it to chew more than it can swallow.
And if you want to know why DANIEL PEARL was killed - it was because he unearthed a direct link of nuclear commerce and knowledge between ISI and Al Qaeda. Muslims use CHARITY organizations as a front to spread terror and in this case too there was one - UMAAH TAMEER E NAU - read about it here and go to the links for a detailed analysis for complicity of ISI. Read this excellent article: PAKISTAN'S FORGOTTEN AL-QAEDA NUCLEAR LINK.
I will not waste any more write up on ISI – but I want to make two quick points.
ISI was deeply involved in the Bali Bombings as well as in Somalia (Black Hawk down episode). ISI was greatly impacted by Somalia adventures. USA moved out of Somalia as the body bags started climbing which was interpreted by ISI as – USA public opinion matters a lot to USA and it is averse to “body bags”. It completely miscalculated the American 9/11 response.
Did it also miscalculate the Indian response (yet to be) to the Mumbai blasts?
HAMID GUL (Retd ISI HEAD) - the GODFATHER OF TALIBAN put it most aptly when he said : Al Qaeda should be considered as a global superpower.
STATELESS ACTORS - MY FOOT !!BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com60tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-21437171715251083212011-09-25T22:32:00.000-07:002011-09-25T22:41:15.258-07:00PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR SECRETS - TUMBLING OUT AS USA MOUNTS PRESSURE ON ISI TO DISMANTLE HAQQANI<strong>Dr A Q Khan’s 13-Page Confession</strong><br /><br />I was in Belgium in December 1971 and had just submitted by Ph.D. thesis when I saw the most painful and humiliating scenes of the surrender of the Pakistan Army in Dacca. To see our officers and jawans with crosses on their backs and their heads shaven being herded like cattle by Indian soldiers being kicked and hit with sticks was such a traumatic scene that I would never forget it my whole life long. In May 1974 I was working as a Senior Scientist at FDO in Amsterdam and had specialized in uranium enrichment technology, the most advanced and the most complicated technology that the Dutch, the Germans and the British had perfected after spending billions of dollars over a 20 year period. Even today it is the best technology for enriching uranium. On 18th May, 1974 the Indians exploded their first nuclear weapon.<br /><br /> Appreciating the immediate dangers posed to Pakistan’s security and very existence, I offered my services to the Prime Minister, Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. On 20th December 1974 I paid a short visit and explained the whole process to the Prime Minister and told him that I could give Pakistan nuclear capability. After explaining the process to Munir Ahmed Khan, Chairman PAEC, we went back to Holland. On 21st December 1975 we again came on holiday. I went to see the progress of the work done in one year, which turned out to be almost nil. I explained this to the Prime Minister, who asked me to stay back and send my resignation to FDO. It was a tough decision for me and my family but we decided to stay so I could serve my beloved Pakistan. I was appointed Advisor to PAEC in June 1976. For six months I had worked without being paid and under miserable and disgusting conditions. I was later paid Rs. 3,000 per month. Working under PAEC proved to be impossible, hence the Prime Minister detached the Project from PAEC and made it independent under a Board of Coordination with Mr. A.G.M. Kazi (Chairman), Mr. Agha Shahi (Secretary General Foreign Affairs) and Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan (Secretary General Defence ) as members. We were to work directly under the Prime Minister. One should not forget that I had brought with me technology, experience and personal notes worth billions of dollars. Without my knowledge and experience, Pakistan could never - repeat never - have become a nuclear power. It was only because of my initiative, knowledge and achievements that our nation can walk straight and tall today! How I organized the work, set up the facilities and organized a most efficient network of companies to import materials and equipment is part of our history. I personally supervised each and every aspect of the Project and prepared the drawings and specifications to give to the suppliers. I trained hundreds of scientists and engineers who were initially totally ignorant of this high technology. The speed of the work and our achievements surprised our worst enemies and adversaries and the West stood helplessly by to see a Third World nation, unable even to produce bicycle chains or sewing needles, mastering the most advanced nuclear technology in the shortest possible span of time. Our mastery of this most advanced and invaluable technology enabled us to sign a historic contract for a giant plant in China. Because of my assistance to the Chinese, they in turn helped Munir Ahmed Khan in various projects that had been stagnating for years (i.e. UF6, Reprocessing, Conversion, Production Reactor etc.). By 1984 we had conducted successful cold tests and had manufactured all components for 30 nuclear devices. Upon my personal request, the Chinese Minister for Nuclear Technology had gifted us 50kg of weapon-grade enriched uranium, enough for 2 weapons. This gift clearly illustrates the importance the Chinese attached to the enrichment technology they received from me. I had asked for this to neutralize Indian nuclear blackmail and the imminent security threat to our country. Work was progressing very fast and I worked 14 to 16 hours a day, 7 days a week to get the job done against all odds, against all embargoes and despite the non-availability of trained manpower or expertise. In August 1988 President Gen. Zia-ul Haq died in a tragic air crash. Elections were held and Benazir Bhutto became the Prime Minister. Gen. Imtiaz, former M.S. to Mr. Bhutto, became Advisor on Defence to the Prime Minister and took over the supervision of the nuclear programme. In 1985 the revolution in Iran took place and there were many in Pakistan who sympathized with the revolution and change of dress code. Kahuta had a large number of Shias working there. One senior officer, Hanif Khalil, was even reported to have contacted the Iranian Ambassador, Mr. Mousavi, but, apprehensive of overzealousness and leakage to favour Iran, I warned him to be more cautious and carefull. In 1989 or 1990 COAS, Gen. Aslam Beg, promised to give the Iranians a few weapons and technology in lieu of 10 years of our defence budget. The Iranian Army Chief, Shamkani, flew to Islamabad in his own plane to pick up the weapons and papers. Admiral Sirohey as Chairman JCSC had a hard time trying to get out of this commitment, in which he succeeded. Later there was a lot of pressure by the COAS on Gen. Imtiaz and P.M. Benazir Bhutto to honour his commitment. Under pressure, Gen. Imtiaz asked Dr. Hashmi (I was out of station) to give some centrifuge parts and drawings etc. to the Iranians. He (Hashmi) asked him to wait until my return. When I got back, Gen. Imtiaz advised me to get components of two old (P-1) discarded machines and pack them into boxes together with 2 sets of drawings prepared by the late Mr. Khokhar. These drawings on their own were not sufficiently detailed to enable mastery of this difficult technology. The components and drawings were handed over to the late Dr. M.Z. Niazi for further disposal. As you know, Dr. Niazi was a confidante of Benazir Bhutto and Gen. Imtiaz. It was some time in 1994 or 1995 that Dr. Niazi requested me to see a few Iranian scientists passing through Karachi from China on their way to Dubai and then on to Teheran. I met them in our guesthouse in Karachi for about half an hour. I did not know any of them and they didn’t give any names. They said that they could not make any progress with their programme and asked whether it would be possible for me to visit them or to send a team for a few weeks. I flatly told them that it was not possible to have that kind of contact. They then asked a few simple questions and I advised them to study the available scientific literature, which contained all the information they were asking for. They seemed to be ignorant of the basic knowledge available in publications. During Gen. Zia’s rule, Benazir, her family, Gen. Imtiaz and Dr. Niazi were financially supported by Col. Gaddafi. It was reliably reported that Col. Gaddafi had given $ 200 million to the late Mr. Z.A. Bhutto to launch our nuclear programme. This was confirmed by Mr. Khalid Hassan, Press Secretary to Mr. Bhutto, in the mischievous BBC film “Project 706 - The Islamic Bomb”. I believe that one set of the drawings and components given by me was given to the Iranians and the other to the Libyans. Dr. Z.K. Niazi used to travel between Dubai, Tripoli and London and in Dubai he became friendly with Farooq of Sri Lanka through a British common friend named Peter. He probably brought a Libyan in contact with Farooq and asked him to arrange a meeting during one of my trips to Turkey. Once when we went to Istanbul (I donot know the date) to have discussions with Dr. Heilingbrunner, Lerch and Ruegg, Farooq (Sri Lanka) told me that a friend of Dr. Niazi’s would like to see me in the nearby Sheraton Hotel. We were staying at Hotel Dilson, Taksim Square. I met the gentleman, a plump darkish person who introduced himself as Magid or Mageed. He said that they wanted to start some R & D programme in the enrichment field and had been given assurances of Pakistan Government assistance. I said they lacked the trained manpower and infra-structure. He said that they could still start learning and do some laboratory experiments. I gave him a brief idea of how complex and difficult the whole technology was. After about half an hour we left and he said he would contact Farooq (Sri Lanka) whenever necessary. He was not a technical person. We did not hear from them for years and then during one of our trips to Turkey to meet our Turkish and Swiss suppliers, Tahir (nephew of Farooq) said that his uncle had phoned to say that a gentleman from Libya was there to see us. I met this gentleman with Tahir. He was of medium stature, average weight and a bit bald. He introduced himself as an Engineer and the name I understood was Mahfooz (you mentioned it as Matooq). He said he was now planning to start the programme as nothing had been done so far and he wanted to start on a small laboratory scale. I told him the plant needed a lot of space and many workshops and manpower. He said that they could go underground, to which I replied that it was not possible for such a big plant with all the facilities to go underground. Since he was planning on a small scale, he thought they might set up a farm of camels or goats and put one or two small sheds in between to put up the laboratory and start training the people in various technologies (vacuum, welding process, computer etc.). I suggested they first send enough people abroad for degrees/training and then start the research programme. He seemed to like that idea. We met for about half an hour at the most. We did not meet again for a long time. After 4 or 5 years, while in Dubai, Tahir invited us to dinner in his flat and the whole Matooq family (9 or 10 people) was there too. He said that they were now starting the work and that he was in touch with foreign suppliers. These had agreed to supply components, equipment etc. through Dubai and other countries. I just listened, being sure in my mind that there was not a committed approach and that they would not be able to achieve much. What they needed was commitment and trained manpower, neither of which they had. I met this same gentleman at dinner at Tahir’s place once or twice more over a period of 4 to 5 years. On those occasions he never discussed any technical matters or asked any questions. I only heard him discuss payment problems to suppliers with Tahir. Tahir once mentioned that Matooq was always taking away quite a bit of money for his personal use. There was always a young man named Karim with him. The last time I met him was in Casablanca for half an hour at tea when we were going to Timbuktu. Tahir said he had asked to see him there as the suppliers were making his life difficult. Tahir asked him to send some money as quickly as possible as the suppliers were pressing him very hard and chasing him. Matooq neither gave me any detail of his work nor asked any questions. I was aware that Tahir was assisting him with the placing of orders according to the supplier’s quotations. It was business between user and supplier. The suppliers had all the drawings that we had originally given them as well as their own modified drawings and were, thus, in a position to supply the requested or suggested products, make their own suggestions and/or submit quotations. Even when we met the last time, I was sure that the Libyans were unable to run any machine properly, not to talk of enrichment. Since I never visited their country or saw any film of their facilities, I did not know anything about their programme. I had heard that they had not even erected a single shed to do some preliminary work. Western suppliers were supplying components etc. and one factory in Malaysia, owned by the son of the Malaysian Prime Minister, Ahmad Badawi, was producing milk/oil tankers, liquid petroleum tankers etc. A Swiss Engineer had put up some machines in this factory to manufacture some components. The components intercepted on the ship near Italy were reportedly manufactured there. Pakistan or KRL had nothing whatsoever to do with it. At one time Tahir asked if he could hire some retired/nearly retired engineers for his factory. Farooq (KRL) was quite unhappy at being demoted and was interested in a good job. Mr. Nasimuddin was nearing LPR and wanted to find a job abroad as his children were studying in the U.S.A. I asked them to send their C.V.s to Malaysia. Mr. Nasimuddin paid a visit there but did not like the place and preferred a government job in the Middle East. Farooq showed some interest, but then preferred to stay back as he was hoping that Mr. Azmat would retire and that he would again be promoted to the post of D.G. That was the end of their interest in Malaysia. If the Libyans have any papers/drawings bearing our name or signatures etc, they must have obtained them either from Farooq (Sri Lanka), Tahir or our old suppliers, as the two first-mentioned had them in Dubai for our use. I have heard that Tahir is being interrogated by the Malysian, American and British authorities and is telling all sorts of stories to save himself. He must be saying the things that the interrogators want to hear from him, even though they may be incorrect. I did not ask anybody in KRL to send any gas to Libya and it is impossible to get 2 tons of gas out of Kahuta without this discrepancy being found out or caught. Our material balance sheet is foolproof. If one believes in the disappearance of this quantity of gas, one could also accept the possibility of the disappearance of Kg 200 or 300 weapon-grade material, which is also impossible. The suggestion that I ever asked for a Libyan passport is both ludicrous and preposterous. I lived in Europe for 15 years and could have got nationality of Germany, Holland or Belgium, but I was proud to keep my Pakistani passport. H.H. Prince Mamdouh bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, brother of King Fahd, offered us (Gen. Chowhan, Dr. Nazeer and me) Saudi passports during one of our visists to the Islamic Development Bank meetings in Jeddah, but I very politely refused. H.H. Gen. Shaikh Mohammad bin Zayed, Chief of the U.A.E. Armed Forces and Deputy Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, offered me U.A.E. nationality many times together with a luxurious villa, which I also politely refused. I discarded all these lucrative and attractive offers and preferred to work and live in Pakistan.<br /><br />Iran<br />The Iranians went on their own to buy, process or manufacture components and equipment. We did not hear from them for years. Some 10 odd years ago Tahir asked for some P-1 components from Farooq (KRL). I don’t remember the exact details. As you mentioned, some small components (200 sets) were collected from our old, discarded stock or a few may have been manufactured and sent by Farooq (KRL) to Tahir, who then probably passed them on to some Iranians. There were no casings, bases, feed systems, scoops etc. Without this system the machine is useless and hence the components were of little value in the overall project. Furthermore, the components were old, mostly rejected due to being out-of-tolerances. They could, at the most, be useful for assembling a few machines but it would not have been possible to make them run to the desired speed. You have to be extremely competent and expert to assemble, balance and run these machines to full speed (63,000 rpm). I allowed it as it was earlier sanctioned by Gen. Imtiaz and the Government and it would keep the Iranians happy and our friendship with them in tact. That the Iranians failed to achieve any progress in 15 years, shows the complexities and extreme technical expertise required to master this technology. It is most unfortunate that, having been betrayed by their own opposition nationals (Mujahideen Khalq Group) and having failed in their effort to achieve any progress, the Iranians have reportedly pointed their finger at us and are now putting us into trouble. They say that they have not given any names or sources from Pakistan. This was emphatically assured and conveyed to me through Izaz Jaffery by ex-Ambassador Agha Siraj Mousavi himself. The spirit behind giving some assistance to Iran or Libya was to maintain friendly relations between them and us. At no time did I seriously believe that they were capable of mastering this technology as they didn’t have the required infra-structure, the trained manpower or the technical know-how.<br /><br /><br />North Korea<br />After approval from the Prime Minister and the COAS, a contract was signed with the North Koreans for a Km 1500 surface-to-surface guided missile. A delegation led by me and including Gen. Mian Mushtaq, DGCD, Admiral Sohail Ahmed Khan, Col. Qazi, Dr. Mirza, Nasim Khan and others visited North Korea for about 5 days. Later their team came here and the deal was finalized with the participation of the then DGCD, Gen. Ziauddin, Dr. Samar Mubarakmand and Chairman Suparco, Mr. Sikander. The Korean team was officially allowed to stay at Kahuta once the products started coming. This was some time in 1993-4. They had to work in the shops and instruct our engineers and technicians in the making of the components. Most of their work was in the two machine shops that were also producing and assembling centrifuges and centrifuge sub-assemblies. They became interested in the technology and some engineers spent a lot of time with Khokhar in his shop where rotor tubes, bellows, etc. were being made and there was a test-bed of P-2. Khokhar was making the liquid fuel rocket engine and needed the Koreans the whole day on a daily basis. During the course of their stay it is quite possible that he explained some details of centrifuge machines to them. Some time in 1996, when the missile project was in full swing, some payments from the GHQ to the Koreans were pending. Somebody from GHQ advised Gen Kang, the Korean representative, to pay some money to Gen. Ziauddin to get the money released. Gen. Kang gave him a suitcase containing $ 0.5 million. Gen. Ziauddin informed Gen. Waheed, COAS, and they returned the money to Kang. Gen. J. Karamat, CGS, came to know of this and phoned me after a few days saying that I should arrange with Gen. Kang to pay this money to him for some secret army funds. He would then sanction the payment of their outstanding charges. He phoned me a few times to expedite the matter. I talked to Gen. Kang and he gave me the $ 0.5 million in cash, which I personally delivered to Gen. J. Karamat. In the meantime Gen. Karamat became COAS and said to me that he needed more money for the same secret funds and that I should talk to Gen. Kang. Gen. Kang came back to me after a few days and said that his boss was willing to give a further $ 2.5 million, provided we helped them with the enrichment technology. They already had a production reactor and were producing plutonium. They had also manufactured a few weapons as, according to Gen. Kang’s boss, they had received Kg 200 plutonium and weapon designs from the Russians in the mid-fifties after the Korean War. They had shown Dr. Mirza and me the perfect nuclear weapon, technologically more advanced than ours. They wanted this technology only for fuel for the power reactors as it cost only 1/10 of that of the diffusion process and required only low capital investment. They were not interested in weapon-grade production of material and did not ask any questions or for drawings for specially designed cascades for weapon-grade material. I informed Gen. J. Karamat; he agreed and gave me a go-ahead. I asked my people to prepare 20 outdated P-1 machines and gave them. Since they were working in the plant and were familiar with the P-2 machines, they asked for 4 of these too. I discussed the matter with the COAS and obtained his approval. After that I personally gave the remaining $ 2.5 million to Gen. Karamat in cash at the Army House to make up the whole amount. The senior engineers at Kahuta were responsible for the Korean’s movements and work. People at the plant were mixing with them every day and taking them around or discussing things with them. I was hardly there. I used to go to Kahuta for 3 or 4 hours to do administrative work and mostly spent the time in my office or with Brig. Behram who was making a launcher, which was our priority at the time. The Koreans took the machines in their own plane with which they were bringing missile parts for us. Security Staff was always present to check incoming and outgoing cargo. Even Dr. Mirza and Nasim Khan made some control panels and software packages and gave them. The Koreans had brought some UF6 gas for analysis, which we tested and found that it was not pure enough. They requested a few Kg of depleted gas for comparison purposes, which we gave them. Technically and monetarily it had no value. One could buy such a sample from abroad. One flowmeter was given to them as a sample. A flowmeter is an ordinary instrument in a UF6 plant. It is banned for Pakistan but available in the open market in Europe. They, in return, taught us how to make Krytrons (fast switches), which were banned items and are needed in nuclear weapons detonation. This was very valuable to us. After having been here for years, the COAS (Gen. Pervez Musharraf) desired that we should send the Koreans back immediately. They left within 3 days. After that we had no more contact with them. I left KRL on 31.3.2001 and that was that. As far as the destroying of any papers or gate passes is concerned, I only advised people not to keep any papers or records that could implicate Pakistan with transfer of technology or equipment to North Korea at any later stage. At that time there were various lobbies against Pakistan and I feared that these papers could, if falling into wrong hands, be used to implicate Pakistan. It was only meant as a precautionary measure. I have done nothing against the interests of Pakistan and whatever I did could not have resulted in proliferation of nuclear weapons. It was primarily meant to keep up our friendship with those countries that had been helping Pakistan from time to time. I would like to reiterate that I never - repeat never - ever put foot on Iranian or Libyan soil. In early 1989 Gen. Aslam Beg asked me if I could help the Iranians in enrichment technology so that they could also achieve nuclear capability. He was convinced that, if Iran had this capability, it would work as a shield between Pakistan on the one side and the U.S.A. and other Western countries on the other side and that these countries would then not be able to undertake any mischievous or adventurous action against Pakistan. I agreed in principle, but told him I could only do so with a go-ahead from the Government. When Gen. Imtiaz told me to do the needful, I did so as I knew he must have obtained clearance from the Prime Minister. So also was the case with Libya. Dr. Zafar Niazi told me that it had been cleared by the Prime Minister, upon which I took the necessary action.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/15/aq-khans-thirteen-page-confession/#ixzz1Yz1EPcLc">Fox News </a><br />The A Q Khan Report by Pakistan’s ISI<br />After hearing press complaints and information coming out from various sources after agreements, first by Iran and then Libya, to abandon their programmes of weapons of mass destruction, the Government of Pakistan took a very serious note of the allegations made by various international newspapers and media and started an intensive, thorough and aggressive investigation against a number of scientists and engineers who had anything to do with the production, assembling and testing of centrifuge components and machines as well as those responsible for the import and export of equipment and materials. The Director General of Security and the Director General of Maintenance and General Services were also detained for thorough investigation. <br /><br />The Principal Engineer of the Design Office, who had been abroad for 4 years, had just returned and was also detained. Similarly, the Director General Process Division who was responsible for keeping records of UF6 gas and the Director General Health Physics who kept the records of incoming natural gas and outgoing depleted gas, uranium metal etc. were also detained. The founding father of KRL, Dr. A.Q. Khan, was also interrogated 3 times for many hours by the DG ISI and the DG SPD. The investigation has yielded the following results:<br /><br />1. When the organization was set up in mid 1976, a free hand was given to the Project Director to acquire each and everything through any means. There was a direct and imminent threat to Pakistan’s security and existence in the wake of the dismemberment of the country in 1971 and after the Indian nuclear test in 1974.<br /><br />2. Gen. Ziaul Haq had openly proclaimed that to “beg, borrow or steal” was the policy of the day in the light of the imposition of stringent embargoes and restrictions on any nuclear-related materials and equipment to Pakistan.<br /><br />3. Pakistan, being an under-developed country with no industrial infrastructure, had to buy each and every bit of material and piece of equipment surreptitiously from abroad in the open market and had to establish a network of cover companies within the country and outside to by-pass embargoes and import all the necessary items. Such companies were operating in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Singapore, the UK, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, etc.<br /><br />4. Since no industrial infra-structure was available within the country, production drawing of all the components of the centrifuge machines were sent to England, France, Germany, Switzerland, Holland etc. for the placing of orders for the thousands of components and equipment required in order to expedite the work, which was a race against time.<br /><br />5. Dubai, having no customs formalities or restrictions and no financial impediments, was made the main operating centre. All the foreign suppliers (Dutch, British, French, Turkish, Belgian, Swiss, German etc.) were regularly coming to Dubai to discuss offers and orders. A company named Ben Belilah Enterprises BBE), owned by an Arab police officer, was introduced by Mr. A. Salam, a British national. BBE had a Sri Lankan Manager named Farooq. Salam and Farooq, both being Tamils, were good friends. Due to the frequent meetings between our experts and the foreign suppliers, sets of almost all the drawings were kept in Dubai in a flat that had been rented especially for this purpose so they wouldn’t have to be carried to and fro all the time.<br /><br />6. Due to religious and idealogical affinity, Pakistanis had great affection for Iran. Former COAS, Gen. Aslam Beg was in favour of very close cooperation in the nuclear field in lieu of financial assistance promised to him towards Pakistan’s defence budget. Benazir Bhutto’s government came under a lot of pressure for cooperation and under this pressure and the decision/approval/directive of Gen. Imtiaz Ali, Adviser on Defence (including nuclear matters) to the Prime Minister, KRL gave some drawings and components to Iran for R & D work. The information given was by no means sufficient to enable Iran to establish even a small pilot plant, not to talk of a fully fledged centrifuge plant or produce nuclear weapons. The Iranians already had excellent contacts with European suppliers and they also started importing components and equipment through Dubai (Farooq). For some time there was close cooperation through Farooq. The Iranians wanted drawings etc. of valves, inverters, control panels, cascades etc. from Farooq and they gave him $ 5 million to help them in their efforts to acquire this information. Farooq gave some money to Dr. Niazi who had arranged the initial contact between him (Farooq) and the Iranians and some he transferred to his own accounts. Part of the money was put in an account in the fictitious name of Haider Zaman, which first Farooq and later on Tahir (Farooq’s nephew) and Dr. A.Q. Khan could operate. This account was opened personally by Farooq. Some of the money from this account was used by Tahir for payments etc. and some was donated for vaious social, educational and welfare projects undertaken by Dr. A.Q. Khan in Pakistan.<br /><br />7. The Iranians needed some P-1 (early discarded model) components. They approached Tahir to request Farooq, an engineer in KRL, to send them these components. These were old components that were no longer being used by KRL and were not sufficient or adequate for the establishment of a small pilot plant or to produce nuclear weapons.<br /><br />8. If it is true, but this is highly unlikely, that there were some traces of uranium in the Iranian facilities, there is just the remotest off chance that one or more KRL components inadvertently had traces of UF6 gas on them that had not been properly decontaminated before shipment.<br /><br />9. Farooq (Sri Lanka) was the main contact with the Libyans through Dr. Niazi. He brought the suppliers in contact with them and gave copies of all the drawings etc. which Dr. A.Q. Khan had kept in Dubai for discussions with the suppliers. These drawings also included those of the device, as Dr. Khan was ordering components from England, Switzerland etc. His own old notes were also kept there for necessary use. Farooq and/or Tahir had access to the flat as they were maintaining it and they must have given copies of all the papers to the Libyans. The Libyans gave Farooq/Tahir $5 million, some of which they gave to Dr. Niazi, some they transferred to India, Singapore etc. and some was put in the account of the fictitious Haider Zaman. Some money from this account was used by Tahir for payments to suppliers etc. and some was again donated for social, welfare and educational projects in Pakistan run by Dr. Khan.<br /><br />10. The Iranian affair was closed long ago, but the Libyans were trying to acquire components and equipment from abroad via Dubai either through Tahir or directly from other suppliers in Europe.<br /><br />11. Whatever assistance was given was done in order to maintain friendly relations between the concerned country and us. It was never seriously believed this would lead to anything as they were scientifically and technologically backward countries unable even to establish a pilot plant of this nature or produce nuclear weapons.<br /><br />12. It is most unfortunate that these things happened due to the peculiar nature of the circumstances and loose arrangements in those early days and because of the personal obligations of previous governments to these countries. There is a very strict command and control system now under the National Command Authority and nothing can be leaked out or taken away from any facilities any more. Fortunately, these happenings have not done irreparable damage to weapons control regimes and have awakened everyone all over the world to the danger of the vast underground network of western suppliers of this most sensitive and dangerous technology.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/16/aq-khan-report-isi/?intcmp=related#ixzz1Yz2sv04o">Fox News</a> <br />Letter Written by Dr A Q Khan to His Wife<br /><br />Darling,<br /><br />If the government plays any mischief with me take a tough stand:<br />(1)You know we had cooperation with China for 15 years. We put up a centrifuge plant at Hanzhong (250km south-west of Xian). We sent 135 C-130 plane loads of machines, inverters, valves, flow meters, pressure gauges. Our teams stayed there for weeks to help and their teams stayed here for weeks at a time. Late minister Liu We, V. M. [vice minister] Li Chew, Vice Minister Jiang Shengjie used to visit us.<br /><br />(2)The Chinese gave us drawings of the nuclear weapon, gave us kg50 enriched uranium, gave us 10 tons of UF6 (natural) and 5 tons of UF6 (3%). Chinese helped PAEC [Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, the rival organisation to the Khan Research Laboratories] in setting up UF6 plant, production reactor for plutonium and reprocessing plant.<br /><br />(3) Probably with the blessings of BB [Benazir Bhutto] & Gen [Aslam] Beg , Gen Imtiaz asked Hashmi [a former colleague of AQK] & me to give a set of drawings and some components to the Iranians. We had no direct contact and we never sent anybody or received anybody. The names and addresses of suppliers were also given to the Iranians. [Note in margin] Gave these things through Dr Niazi [Bhutto family dentist and confidant, now dead]. Must have got money for it ($1 million).<br /><br />(4) Gen Jehangir Karamat [still alive, chief of army staff 1996-8, sent by Musharraf as ambassador to U.S. 2004-2006] took $3 million through me from the N Koreans and asked me to give them some drawings and machines.<br /><br />(5) We sold [conventional] weapons to Libya, Sudan and Malaysia. And sent [conventional] weapons to Bosnia. [Khan’s KRL plant also made anti-tank missiles and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.]<br /><br />(6) There is proof of all this stashed somewhere safely which will be given to public and press.<br /><br />Use Major Islam or Hashmi [former colleagues of A Q Khan] and get S M Zafar [lawyer of AQK] to take up these matters in court/public. Get in touch with Simon Henderson and give him all the details. Ask Henk [Slebos, part of Khan’s purchasing network in The Netherlands] to get a guy from Telegraaf and give him all the details. Tell them the bastards first used us and now playing dirty games with us.<br /><br />Love you<br /><br />Khantje [diminutive name used between Khan and his wife]<br />Get out quickly to Dubai with Tanya [grand-daughter who lives with them] for a while or leave Tanya with Ayesha [daughter who lives in Islamabad]. I believe they want to make me a scapegoat as Mr Wajid Shamsul Hassan (former HC [high commissioner] in London) had warned in an article (with Major Islam). They might try to get rid of me to cover up all the things (dirty) they got done by me in connection with Iran, Libya & N. Korea. This is just to forewarn you.<br />Dr A Q Khan<br />NI & Bar, HI<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/15/letter-written-by-aq-kahn-to-his-wife/#ixzz1Yz3pXRmj">Fox News</a> <br /><br />General Jehangir Karamat’s Letter to Fox News<br /><br />Dear Ms Browne,<br /><br />Thank you for reaching out to me prior to your planned broadcast and website postings. I am sure that a prestigious news organization like the Fox News will satisfy themselves about the authenticity and credibility of sources, documents, letters, statements etc because many of these have been in circulation and have been changing hands for years even as new fabricated ones keep cropping up. There are obviously many motivations for this activity. None of the information that you have asked me to comment upon is new. It has all been published before in different formats and pertains to events almost fifteen years ago. The entire proliferation episode actually spans a much longer period with more than one country involved. The total episode was the subject of an exhaustive and thorough investigation before it was formally closed. The allegations and information surfacing now have to be seen in this overall context as regards their timing and motivation as well as coincidence with other currently ongoing situations----these aspects will inevitably be discussed. Having retired in 1998 I was not privy to the details of the proliferation episode and the final investigation report. I can only comment on the specific issues that concern me and are supposedly from ‘statements made during investigations’. The allegation that I accepted any payment from Dr Khan for letting him pass on material to North Korea is preposterous, false and a malicious fabrication. In fact if such an allegation has been made then it fully implicates Dr Khan in ‘one on one’ dealing with another country including receiving money. Where that money subsequently went (if it was paid) is speculation and no one persons word can be accepted especially if that person was actually involved in such matters over a prolonged period. I doubt that Dr Khan would put himself in such a position because it in no way clears him—it actually implicates him. I categorically deny this baseless allegation because I never asked Dr Khan to pass on to the North Koreans ‘drawings and machines’ related to uranium enrichment. As CGS I was not in a position to demand anything from Dr A Q Khan. He was neither my subordinate nor could I delay or sanction payments to him or anyone else. I had nothing to do with the payments or the program. I am also sure that a person of Dr Khan’s standing would not get into the business of carting around money in brief cases like a bagman. If any illegal demands were being made then those could, and should have been reported to my superiors because the CGS was never in the loop on matters pertaining to the nuclear program. I am not aware of the dealings between ‘Kang’ and Dr Khan or anyone else. I have no knowledge of the details of the North Korean program that are given in your note. I do know that as COAS I did not personally control any enrichment program and that GHQ never made payments of any sort to anyone. All contact was through designated staff and GHQ had nothing to do with contractual payments. There were never any ‘secret funds’. All contracts were between governments with laid down channels for payment—these could not be violated or circumvented. No contract with North Korea was signed during my tenure as COAS. Any material given or received outside the ongoing contracts by the person in charge of those materials was illegal. There was no reason for anyone to make any payment to me at Army House or anywhere else—no such payments were ever made because no transfer of material was ever authorized by me. The comments about the status of the North Korean program and the details given are something that I do not know about and therefore cannot comment upon. All this has been written about before and if you so desire I can try and locate that article and forward it to you. This probably pertains to a much later period 1999-2003 possibly so the question of anyone asking me for permission to transfer material does not arise. This never happened. I am not sure who is being indicated when it is said that ‘since they were working in the plant with P-2 machines’ but if it implies North Koreans then their presence was completely illegal and unauthorized. I would seriously question such an assertion. Finally let me say that as a rule I do not get into correspondence or discussion over such issues because no country would want its responsible people to publicly debate sensitive matters. I have given you my views frankly and I hope you will use this material judiciously.<br /><br />With best wishes and regards<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/09/15/general-jehangir-karamats-letter-to-fox-news/#ixzz1Yz5b8jAh">Jehangir Karamat</a> <br /><br />Compiled by <a href="http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/09/finally-truth-about-pakistans-wmd.html">PRASUN SENGUPTA</a>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-49319245764595044652011-05-31T23:38:00.000-07:002011-06-09T22:48:20.656-07:00SYED SHAHZAD SALEEM - Tortured and Killed by ISI, Pakistan<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wxmu_WEt_pQ/TeXiQhXCZGI/AAAAAAAABDE/pYVDydQydh4/s1600/syed%2Bshahzad%2Bsaleem.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 193px; height: 261px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wxmu_WEt_pQ/TeXiQhXCZGI/AAAAAAAABDE/pYVDydQydh4/s400/syed%2Bshahzad%2Bsaleem.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5613141284047971426" /></a><br /><br />ANYONE WILLING TO PAY TO SYED SALEEM'S TRUST FUND CAN DO SO BY <a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/MF08Aa01.html">CLICKING HERE:</a><br /><br />I had in many instances had e-mail interactions with Syed Saleem and he was always gracious with his inputs - a man with deep knowledge and far greater direct contacts with Taliban and Al-Qaeda than ISI could have liked. And in the end he did not pay heed to ISI warnings - he was a fearless journalist - and is the norm in Pakistan - you simply get bumped off !<br /><br /><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f5jEtXXKhfE/TebMTIwRktI/AAAAAAAABDM/v77gwUN-nqs/s1600/inside%2Balqaeda%2Band%2Btaliban%2Bsaleem%2Bshahzad.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 185px; height: 295px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f5jEtXXKhfE/TebMTIwRktI/AAAAAAAABDM/v77gwUN-nqs/s400/inside%2Balqaeda%2Band%2Btaliban%2Bsaleem%2Bshahzad.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5613398614703444690" /></a><br /><br />Before I go to his last published article, I wish to say a few words about his book that he got published just days before he was killed. <strong><a href="http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745331010&">INSIDE AL QAEDA & TALIBAN - BEYOND BIN LADEN & 9/11</a></strong>. Saleem made very interesting assertions on 26/11 Mumbai attacks. <strong>He said 26/11 was scripted by ISI, approved by AL-QAEDA commanders and executed by Lashkar e Taiba (LeT). From Al-Qaeda the main player was Ilyas Kashmiri and from LeT Haroon Ashik.</strong><br /><br />Guess what's the common link between Haroon Ashik and Ilyas Kashmiri? <strong>They were both from Pakistan Army!!</strong>Pakistan Army has been embedding terror outfits with its own men, especially in the operations and planning department so that there is close co-ordination with what Pakistan Army & ISI demands and its seamless execution by these terror outfits !<br /><br />The book and Saleem's last article reproduced below clearly incensed Pakistan Army and its terror outfit (<strong>oops sorry, its intelligence wing</strong>) -the ISI!!!<br /><br />This is his last published article in Asia Times Online (Hoping the part 2 is with the journal): Here is the article : <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME27Df06.html">Al-Qaeda had warned of Pakistan strike</a> </span><br /><br />ISLAMABAD - <span style="font-weight:bold;">Al-Qaeda carried out the brazen attack on PNS Mehran naval air station in Karachi on May 22 after talks failed between the navy and al-Qaeda over the release of naval officials arrested on suspicion of al-Qaeda links</span>, an Asia Times Online investigation reveals.<br /><br />Pakistani security forces battled for 15 hours to clear the naval base after it had been stormed by a handful of well-armed militants.<br /><br />At least 10 people were killed and two United States-made P3-C<br /><br />Orion surveillance and anti-submarine aircraft worth US$36 million each were destroyed before some of the attackers escaped through a cordon of thousands of armed forces.<br /><br />An official statement placed the number of militants at six, with four killed and two escaping. Unofficial sources, though, claim there were 10 militants with six getting free. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Asia Times Online contacts confirm that the attackers were from Ilyas Kashmiri's 313 Brigade, the operational arm of al-Qaeda.</span><br /><br />Three attacks on navy buses in which at least nine people were killed last month were warning shots for navy officials to accept al-Qaeda's demands over the detained suspects.<br /><br />The May 2 killing in Pakistan of Osama bin Laden spurred al-Qaeda groups into developing a consensus for the attack in Karachi, in part as revenge for the death of their leader and also to deal a blow to Pakistan's surveillance capacity against the Indian navy.<br /><br />The deeper underlying motive, though, <span style="font-weight:bold;">was a reaction to massive internal crackdowns on al-Qaeda affiliates within the navy.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Volcano of militancy</span><br /><br />Several weeks ago, naval intelligence traced an al-Qaeda cell operating inside several navy bases in Karachi, the country's largest city and key port.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">"Islamic sentiments are common in the armed forces</span>," a senior navy official told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity as he is not authorized to speak to the media.<br /><br />"We never felt threatened by that. All armed forces around the world, whether American, British or Indian, take some inspiration from religion to motivate their cadre against the enemy. Pakistan came into existence on the two-nation theory that Hindus and Muslims are two separate nations and therefore no one can separate Islam and Islamic sentiment from the armed forces of Pakistan," the official said.<br /><br />"<span style="font-weight:bold;">Nonetheless, we observed an uneasy grouping on different naval bases in Karachi. While nobody can obstruct armed forces personnel for rendering religious rituals or studying Islam, the grouping [we observed] was against the discipline of the armed forces. That was the beginning of an intelligence operation in the navy to check for unscrupulous activities</span>."<br /><br />The official explained the grouping was against the leadership of the armed forces and opposed to its nexus with the United States against Islamic militancy. When some messages were intercepted hinting at attacks on visiting American officials, intelligence had good reason to take action and after careful evaluation at least 10 people - mostly from the lower cadre - were arrested in a series of operations.<br /><br />"That was the beginning of huge trouble," the official said.<br /><br />Those arrested were held in a naval intelligence office behind the chief minister's residence in Karachi, but before proper interrogation could begin, <span style="font-weight:bold;">the in-charge of the investigation received direct threats from militants who made it clear they knew where the men were being detained.</span><br /><br />The detainees were <span style="font-weight:bold;">promptly moved to a safer location, but the threats continued. Officials involved in the case believe the militants feared interrogation would lead to the arrest of more of their loyalists in the navy. The militants therefore made it clear that if those detained were not released, naval installations would be attacked.</span><br /><br />It was clear the militants were receiving good inside information as they always knew where the suspects were being detained, indicating sizeable al-Qaeda infiltration within the navy's ranks. A senior-level naval conference was called at which an intelligence official insisted that the matter be handled with great care, otherwise the consequences could be disastrous. Everybody present agreed, and it was decided to open a line of communication with al-Qaeda.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Abdul Samad Mansoori, a former student union activist and now part of 313 brigade</span>, who originally hailed from Karachi but now lives in the North Waziristan tribal area was approached and talks begun. Al-Qaeda demanded the immediate release of the officials without further interrogation. This was rejected.<br /><br />The detainees were allowed to speak to their families and were well treated, but officials were desperate to interrogate them fully to get an idea of the strength of al-Qaeda's penetration. The militants were told that once interrogation was completed, the men would be discharged from the service and freed.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Al-Qaeda rejected these terms and expressed its displeasure with the attacks on the navy buses in April</span>.<br /><br />These incidents pointed to<span style="font-weight:bold;"> more than the one al-Qaeda cell intelligence had tracked in the navy</span>. The fear now was that if the problem was not addressed, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supply lines could face a new threat. NATO convoys are routinely attacked once they begin the journey from Karachi to Afghanistan; now they could be at risk in Karachi port. Americans who often visit naval facilities in the city would also be in danger.<br /><br />Therefore, another crackdown was conducted and more people were arrested. Those seized had different ethnic backgrounds. <span style="font-weight:bold;">One naval commando came from South Waziristan's Mehsud tribe and was believed to have received direct instructions from Hakeemullah Mehsud, the chief of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistan Taliban). Others were from Punjab province and Karachi, the capital of Sindh province.</span><br /><br />After Bin Laden was killed by American Navy Seals in Abbottabad, 60 kilometers north of Islamabad, militants decided the time was ripe for major action.<br /><br />Within a week, insiders at PNS Mehran provided maps, pictures of different exit and entry routes taken in daylight and at night, the location of hangers and details of likely reaction from external security forces.<br /><br />As a result, the militants were able to enter the heavily guarded facility where one group targeted the aircraft, a second group took on the first strike force and a third finally escaped with the others providing covering fire. Those who stayed behind were killed.BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com59tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-46661822471199105722011-05-05T00:20:00.000-07:002011-05-05T22:04:36.952-07:00OSAMA BIN LADEN KILLED - SO WHAT? NOTHING CHANGES<span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20110330-328441/Abu-Sayyaf-to-weaken-with-arrest-of-Bali-bombing-mastermindAFP">Omar Patek</a></span> gave the window the Americans were looking for to nab Osama bin Laden (OBL). The US had zeroed in the house OBL lived by August of 2010 but going in to raid with Pakistanis posed a serious challenge – every raid has been tipped off by ISI as OBL is a strategic asset of ISI. OBL brought in billions in aid to Pakistan.<br /><br />ISI controls Al-Qaeda and much of Sunni terrorist groups around the world. One can look at ISI as terror inc but more pragmatic view would be “<span style="font-weight:bold;">ISI – mercenaries on hire</span>” and it is this unique feature that US – UK el al use to further their oil and other interests in Central Asia / Africa / Eastern Europe and even India. The cohesiveness of US – UK in using ISI to use its foot soldiers (mercenaries to them, to the rest of us – terrorists) in various terror groups is a game beyond the grasp of many of our top foreign policy makers.<br /><br />It has to be understood that <span style="font-weight:bold;">OBL was nothing but a worthless crown – over the deadly brain of ISI</span>. He was an icon who brought in foot soldiers and money to the cause. OBL was not a mastermind of either 9/11 or Madrid bombings or Bali bombings or 26/11.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> And because OBL was a CIA asset during Soviet occupation of the Afghanistan, the poor bloke did not stand a chance of being captured alive to be tried in courts – lest CIA dirty secrets come out. </span><br /><br />Coming back to Omar Patek. The Americans needed him – the American President needed him even more. Now they had solid (not rock solid) intel, enough for an intervention. To go into Pakistan to pick up OBL without informing Pakistan Army was fraught with dangers. Even the best of radar evading electronic jamming machines may show up blips and Pakistan Army is not a rag tag bunch who will react like bumbling idiots. The Americans had to go into Abbottabad where OBL lived but had to go in without arousing Pakistan suspicion that they are after OBL.<br /><br />Hence US intel gave information about Omar Patek – who lived in Abbotabad and Pakistan ISI picked him up in January of 2011. The game began. The real intention to nab OBL was kept out. Pakistan was dulled into believing that the US is after Omar Patek and his team. The assault on May 1st to OBL was on to pick up OBL – the Pakistanis thought that US is there to pick up Omar Patek’s men. There is however a serious hole in this theory – why would US give up Omar Patek’s name to ISI and not give the “lesser names” for them to fly in.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Hence either Pakistan knew there was a high Al-Qaeda target or it was completely kept out of the loop.</span> This will require a whole new article.<br /><br />Omar Patek is part of Abu Sayyaf group – a group that was trained by ISI.<br /><br />The ISI hand in Bali bombings as well as 9/11 is unmistakable but US kept it out of public view for its own larger interests in Central Asia.<br /><br />Little digress of dealing of ISI and various terror outfits :<br /><br />A little history to see how they (ISI - Al Qaeda - Terror groups) worked in tandem..<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">But before that – a tale of two individuals – Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (both related to each other). Both are Pakistani citizen though Khalid was born in Kuwait to Pakistani Balochi parents, his first passport was from Pakistan. After 9/11 people tried to pass Khalid Sheikh as a Kuwaiti citizen.<br /><br />Khalid & Ramzi were nurtured, sheltered and trained by ISI in its Peshawar camp and received training in Khowst camp. Khalid, a brilliant student, became deeply involved with ISI & Al Qaeda.<br /><br />In 1993 Khalid and Ramzi planned the New York city World Trade Centre bombing which was successfully carried out by Ramzi in Feb 26th, 1993. After the bombing, he came back to Pakistan and met Khalid Sheikh and stayed in ISI safe houses.<br /><br />While in Pakistan, both planned to assassinate Benazir Bhutto in collaboration with some ISI operatives. ISI masterminded the assassination attempt – which did not take place (Note – the constant Al Qaeda ISI hand in the assassination attempt on Benazir.)<br /> <br />After the failed attempt, Ramzi moved to Phillipines. By this time Ramzi became a coveted ISI asset.<br /><br />Nur Misauri, a professor of University of Philippines formed Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). After suffering reversals at the hand of Philippines Army, Nur fled to PAKISTAN. Nur was financially supported by the ISI and stayed in guest houses in Peshawar and Karachi. He helped MNLF recruit for Afghan Jihad. While Nur wanted autonomy, Salamat Hashmi wanted independence from Philippines and he too was actively supported by ISI – so much so that Salamat moved his organization (MILF) head quarters to LAHORE.<br /><br />However, the most prominent face of Moro revolt is Aby Sayyaf group (ASG). It was originated in PAKISTAN when 400 Moro youths were inducted to Pakistan’s ISI managed camp.<br /><br />At this time, 3 retired ISI officers were recruited by ISI and deputed to Mindanao under cover as religious teachers.<br /><br />Simultaneously, Osama bin Laden (OBL) stationed his brother-in-law Md. Jamal Khalifa in Philippines. Al Qaeda and ISI came to a tacit understanding – to transplant Afghan jihad in South East Asia and create a distinct Islamic hub, as against the increasing Christian influence.<br /><br />( SEE THE CONNECTION OF ISI, OBL, ABU SAYYAF GROUP MERGING)<br /><br />The other common thread binding them were students emanating from the madrassas of Karachi, Peshawar, Binori, Bannu & Quetta.<br /><br />Khalifa set the Philippine operation rolling by setting up several front offices, trading units and charities. He was in charge of Saudi charity – Islamic International Relief Organization. With this he set up the terror network in Philippines and funded Al Qaeda operations in Jordan, Indonesia and Malaysia.<br /><br />Committed Al Qaeda operatives – Zubair, Abu Oman and Sadiq Oden (Kenyan bombing fame) joined him.<br /><br />Later Pakistani trainers, former ISI operatives, trained MILF and Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, the Malayan Kampulan Mujahideen, Jemmah Islamiyah and Lashkar Jundullah volunteers.<br /><br />Linkages of ISI and Al Qaeda are very deep and stretches to the core positions of Islamic terrorism in the entire South East Asia.<br /><br />Here the ISI – Al Qaeda team carried out several terrorist activities:<br /><br />1. Ramzi bombed a mall at Cebu city<br />2. Ramzi masterminded the bombing of Miss Universe paegent<br />3. Wali Khan Shah, the ISI trained operative, bombed Greenbelt theatre in Manila<br />4. Audacious plan to assassinate Pope John Paul II and Bill Clinton (then US President) in Manila by these core group was uncovered in time and a major disaster was averted.<br />5. Trial run for 9-11 was hatched in Manila by ISI – Al Qaeda operatives. It was codenamed Operation Oplan Bojinka<br /><br />OPLAN BOJINKA: This was conceived by Osama bin Laden, Khalifa, Ramzi,Khalid Sheikh and a faction of ISI. The grand plan was to sabotage 11 US flights over Pacific and they recruited Abu Sayyaf jehadists to carry out the plan.<br /><br />An ISI trained Pakistani – Tareq Kaved Rana – resident of Paranque, Philippines, played an important role. He housed the conspirators at his place which he used to fabricate bombs.<br /><br />Jamal, Ramzi & Khalid Sheikh guided the Manila cell of Al Qaeda. Another Pakistani terrorist, Wali Khan Shah (Greenway belt bomber) was entrusted by ISI to open terrorist cells in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. Another Pakistani born in Kuwait, Abdul Hakim Ali was trained by ISI in bomb making in Pehsawar. A product of Binori mosque and aligned to Harkat ul Ansar and trained by ISI – he joined the Philippines Al Qaeda cell.<br /><br />On December 11, Ramzi boarded Philippines Airline 434 on a Manila – Cebu – Tokyo route. He assembled a bomb and planted it under his seat and deplaned at Cebu. The bomb exploded on the 2nd leg and killed one passenger – the plane had to make emergency landing at Okinawa, Japan.<br /><br />The dry run for Oplan Bojinka was successful.<br /><br />However, the full plan could not be carried out, as the apartment that the conspirators were living in, mysteriously caught fire. They abandoned the plans after “incriminating evidence” was collected by federal agencies in Philippines. Ramzi promptly fled to Pakistan where he was housed by ISI in their safe houses.<br /><br />Filipino intelligence reported that Wali Khan Shah had visited Pakistan embassy in Manila twice to meet the ISI station in charge.<br /><br />On September 5th 1996, Ramzi, Murad and Shah were convicted of Oplan Bojinka.<br /><br />Under intense pressure Ramzi was arrested from a guest house in Islamabad.<br /><br />Under intense pressure, Khalid Sheikh was arrested after 9/11 – described as the mastermind of 9/11.</span><br /><br />Back to OBL – Why he was staying in a compound that was compromised once is not known and that too for 5 years. Medical treatment meant he be close to cantonment area where he cannot be “snatched” by hostile powers. The house in question is supposed to be owned by <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.rediff.com/news/report/osama-killed-hizbul-mujahedeen-owned-abbottabad-house/20110504.htm">100% ISI funded Hizbul Mujahiddeen group</a></span> - as is being claimed by a Canadian newspaper and even as an ISI safe house by Gulf News. Of course even a naive person will be aware that OBL living in Abbotabad was under the protection of ISI - so what ?<br /><br />That he was staying in that area was alerted by RAW to CIA in 2008 when RAW operatives sighted Ayman Al Zawahari moving from Islamabad to Abbottabad. <a href="http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-05-04/india/29508259_1_zawahiri-cantonment-area-indian-intelligence">TIMES OF INDIA</a>: It now turns out that Indian agencies had twice warned their US counterparts about the presence of al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden in an urbanized and heavily populated area not very far from Islamabad “ once in mid-2007 and again in early 2008 when they specifically mentioned his likely presence in a cantonment area. On both occasions, the Americans either did not take the Indian intelligence seriously or perhaps were too busy working on their own inputs about Osamas whereabouts.<br /><br />The first time Indian security agencies gave this information to the US authorities was in mid-2007, soon after a Taliban meeting in Peshawar which was attended by Osamas No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to the information gathered by Indian intelligence operatives, this meeting was also attended by top leaders of Haqqani network and at least two ISI officials.<br /><br />Was it really the courier whose tracking blew the whistle ultimately? Or was it a “rogue” ISI senior member who blew the lid off to the Americans to humiliate his counterparts due to a serious grouse? <span style="font-weight:bold;">Or was it ex-President Pervez Musharraf who struck a deal with US/UK so that he is not extradited to Pakistan to face murder charges against the killing of Bhutto</span>? Some one sold out. Americans used intel to target OBL. Fed ISI dis-information and pulled off the biggest and most startling covert ops in recent memory.<br /><br />Is Paksitan going to face heat? From public yes – and if public sentiment turns seriously negative, then President Obama’s rating that saw 11 point climb post the spl ops that killed OBL will plummet. He has to work hard to keep Pakistan happy to feed US troops in Afghanistan. And to keep Pakistan happy to keep its Central Asia / Arabian / African game going – like it is doing in Bahrain. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BWN03r3UpF8/TcN19OvQ7UI/AAAAAAAABC8/p9cEHyvAz0g/s1600/pakbahrain%2Badvt.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 259px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BWN03r3UpF8/TcN19OvQ7UI/AAAAAAAABC8/p9cEHyvAz0g/s400/pakbahrain%2Badvt.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5603452056167836994" /></a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">See Advt above that appeared in a Pakistani newspaper seeking "volunteers" to quell uprising in Bahrain.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">2011 BAHRAIN</span>: A Shia majority country has a Sunni monarchy. US 5th Fleet is based there. To quell the popular shia uprising, US took help from Pakistan to quell the uprising by<span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://criticalppp.com/archives/42347">sending ex-Pakistani soldiers & mercenaries (read terrorists)</a></span> via Saudi Arabia to kill and control Shia protestors. <span style="font-weight:bold;">All under US patronage !!</span><br /><br />As long as great game is on, why only in Afghan soil, the CIA & ISI are as much buddies as ISI & Al Qaeda are.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1970 JORDAN</span> : During “Black September” in 1970, when Palestinians nearly brought down King Hussein’s monarchy in Jordan, it was a unit of the Pakistani army led by none other than the late Gen. Zia-ul Haq that brutally put down the revolt and preserved Hashemite rule. <span style="font-weight:bold;">All under US patronage!</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">From 1970 to 2011 - the game is on and will continue to the detriment of India's security environment - as long as we have weak pliable PMs at helm.</span><br /><br />And ISI has usurped the top decision making units of all these terrorist outfits with its men. Ilyas Kashmiri is a Pakistan SSG Commando who is now the military wing head of Brigade 313 of Al Qaeda. Whether OBL lives or dies, ISI is firmly in control of all major Sunni terrorist organizations of the globe. And Kashmiri is recruiting ex- Pak Army soldiers into Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Operationally there is no difference between Taliban, Al Qaeda, Hizbul Mujahideen, HUJI et al. In a few years - the lines between Pakistan Army and Al-Qaeda will blur - if not already !!<br /><br />Read how much US did to Pakistan post 9/11 - read this: <a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2008/11/before-next-911-pay-senators-off.html">Before next 9/11 pay senators off</a> (which incl ex - Indian ambassador Timothy Roemer)<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span><br /><br />BOTTOM LINE: THERE WILL BE LOTS OF BLUSTER IN STATEMENTS FOR PUBLIC AT LARGE. BEHIND <span style="font-weight:bold;">CLOSED DOORS THEY (CIA, ISI ET AL) WILL BE SHAKING HANDS FOR THEIR NEXT OPS.</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com59tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-82045805414988131522011-01-24T21:57:00.000-08:002011-01-24T22:09:26.765-08:00ILLEGAL MONEY STASHED IN SWITZERLAND AND OTHER TAX HAVENSIt's funny if you look at visa regulations of countries that are deemed tax havens - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.visasforindians.com/TouristSummary.html">Indians do not require visa to enter in most of them</a></span>. And why not?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">JAN 21st, 2011</span>: INDIA TODAY ARTICLE - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story/127260/cover-story/black-money-indians-stashing-money-in-foreign-bank-accounts.html">THE GREAT INDIAN ROBBERY</a></span> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">MAR 18TH, 2009</span>: MY BLOG - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2009/03/india-has-14-trillion-of-illegal-money.html">INDIA has $1.4 Trillion of Illegal money stashed in Swiss Banks - Time to bring it home !</a> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">APR 28TH, 2009</span>: MY BLOG - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2009/04/kgb-paid-money-to-sonia-rahul-rajiv.html">KGB PAID MONEY TO SONIA, RAHUL, RAJIV GANDHI & ALSO TO SONIA'S MOTHER IN ITALY !</a></span><br /><br />I should not single out Congress Party as the only corrupt party, rest are too - but Congress ruled India most - hence its been singled out. Between <span style="font-weight:bold;">Koda, Kalmadi, Radiaa and others - do we care anymore ?</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com49tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-86262101360818377562011-01-18T21:58:00.000-08:002011-01-18T22:04:39.395-08:00BANGLADESH MUTINY SENTENCING - THE HISTORY BEHIND IT<span style="font-weight:bold;">BANGLADESH SENTENCES 46 MORE BORDER GUARDS FOR MUTINY (XINHUA</span>):
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<br />DHAKA, January 13, 2011 (Xinhua) -- A special court in Bangladesh on Thursday sentenced another 46 border guards of the paramilitary force to different jail terms for the February 2009 mutiny involvement, an official said.
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<br />The verdict involved charges linked to Border Guard Bangladesh or BGB (previously known as Bangladesh Rifles or BDR) mutiny on February25-26, 2009, which took place in BGB headquarters in capital Dhaka and spread to many other stations of the force across the country.
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<br />The special court also fined 100 taka (1.43 U.S. dollars) for each of the 46 soldiers, the BGB official in Dhaka said on condition of anonymity.
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<br />He said the special court in Khagrachari district, some 259 km southeast of capital Dhaka, sentenced the convicts to different terms ranging from four months to seven years.
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<br />According to the official, the soldiers joined the mutiny at Khagrachhari BGB sector on Febr. 26, 2009 expressing solidarity with the mutineers of the force's headquarters in Dhaka.
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<br />They revolted against their commanding Army officers and misbehaved with their families on that day and attempted to murder them after looting arms and ammunition from the battalion armory.
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<br />With the Thursday's 12th verdict, the number of BGB soldiers who were accused and sentenced for the February 2009 mutiny involvement stood at 433.
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<br />The Bangladeshi government decided to try the accused for such offenses as killings, attempt to murder, looting and arson committed during the mutiny, which killed 74 people, including 57 Army officers, under the penal code.
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<br />Other offenses like breach of discipline and defying superiors' orders at the BGB headquarters in Dhaka and other stations of the force across the country will be tried under BDR (now BGB) laws.
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<br />The maximum punishment under the penal code is death sentence, while under the BDR (now BGB) laws it is seven years' imprisonment.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">THE REAL REASON - AN ATTEMPT BY PAKISTAN TO ERASE THE 1971 GENOCIDE:</span>
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatpGxiy12I/AAAAAAAAAjw/cKZit_zkQNI/s1600-h/bangladesh-RH.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 235px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatpGxiy12I/AAAAAAAAAjw/cKZit_zkQNI/s400/bangladesh-RH.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308452150885668706" /></a>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">MASS GRAVE IN DHAKA CAUSED BY BDR MUTINY, 2009.</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1971 – Role of Pakistan Army’s genocide in Bangladesh</span>
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<br />To understand the context for the present crisis, we need to look back at the bloody birth of Bangladesh. In 1970, Bangladesh was part of united Pakistan. During the 1970 general elections, the Bengalis of Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) won an overwhelming majority, electing Sheikh Mujib to Prime Minister of Pakistan. Alarmed at the thought of being ruled by their <span style="font-weight:bold;">racial inferiors from East Pakistan</span><span style="font-weight:bold;">(EVEN TODAY PAKISTANIS VIEW THE SHORT STATURED DARKER BANGLADESHIS AS RACIALLY INFERIOR</span>), the Pakistan army cancelled the results of the election and launched a brutal crackdown. In the mass genocide that followed, <span style="font-weight:bold;">3 Million Bengalis were killed and 10 Million became refugees in India.</span>
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatmWREuM5I/AAAAAAAAAi4/zV8LS6eN6s4/s1600-h/surr2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 333px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatmWREuM5I/AAAAAAAAAi4/zV8LS6eN6s4/s400/surr2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308449118512624530" /></a>
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">PAKISTAN ARMY SURRENDER</span>
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<br />The war that followed - <span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan was soundly defeated in 1971</span> that led to the creation of Bangladesh, the retreat of Pakistan was marred by charges of genocide and brutality that were so horrifying and cruel that Pakistan itself chose to bury the findings of report of this massacre.
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<br /><a href="http://www.ibitians.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/hamoodur_rahman_commission.pdf"><span style="font-weight:bold;">HAMOOD-UR-RAHMAN REPORT</span></a>
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SawdP0VI00I/AAAAAAAAAj4/PtmQT6nYLCo/s1600-h/hamoodur_rahman_bhutto.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 274px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SawdP0VI00I/AAAAAAAAAj4/PtmQT6nYLCo/s400/hamoodur_rahman_bhutto.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308650218345517890" /></a>
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<br />In December 1971, within a week of replacing General Yahya as the President, Bhutto formed a commission headed by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Justice Hamood-ur-Rahman. The Commission's responsibility was to ascertain the facts of the 1971 debacle.
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<br />Originally there were 12 copies of the Report. These were all destroyed; expect the one that was handed over to Z. A. Bhutto. Though the Report remained classified, till its contents were made public in 2002.
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<br />The Hamood-ur-Rahman Report's findings <span style="font-weight:bold;">accuse the Pakistan Army of carrying out senseless and wanton arson</span>, killings in the countryside, killing of intellectuals and professionals and <span style="font-weight:bold;">burying them in mass graves, killing of Bengali Officers and soldiers on the pretence of quelling their rebellion, killing East Pakistani civilian officers, businessmen and industrialists, raping a large number of East Pakistani women</span> as a deliberate act of revenge, retaliation and torture, and <span style="font-weight:bold;">deliberate killing of members of the Hindu minority.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">NIGHTS & DAYS OF PAKISTANI BUTCHERS – ABUL KASEM (BANGLADESH)</span>
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<br />I beseech every reader to read his real life accounts of by <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://avijit.humanists.net/26th_march/nights_and_days.htm">clicking here</a></span>.
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<br />On the last para Abul writes: “As I write this re-count, I learnt that 100 new 'killing fields' have been discovered all around Bangladesh. Was I surprised? No, not at all! However, what surprised me the most was why did it take so long?
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<br /> <span style="font-weight:bold;">Why did we have to wait almost 30 years to know that innocent folks were butchered just as cattle</span>? Rest assured that many more killing fields will be found. The killing fields of Cambodia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan, etc., will be nothing when compared to the killing fields in Bangladesh. Let us not forget these killing fields. Let us not forget the sacrifice of 3 million people who shed enough blood to change the verdure of monsoon drenched land of Bengal. They certainly gave their lives so that we can enjoy the fruits of freedom. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Freedom from the tyranny of Punjabi masters and Pakistani Oligarchy. I would ask every Bangalees not to forget the butchers of those nights and days when we remember the fallen angels of our land. The crime should never go unpunished</span>.”
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<br />Seeing his writing, one <a href="http://www.islam-watch.org/AbulKasem/pakistan_officers_contrition.htm">Major Kashif from Pakistan Army wrote</a> to Abul: (excerpts)-
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<br />From: kashif khan <<span style="font-weight:bold;">kashifkhan29@hotmail.com</span>>
<br />Sent: Sunday, 7 August 2005 1:43:11 AM
<br />To: <span style="font-weight:bold;">abul88@hotmail.com</span>
<br />Subject: friendship
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<br />“d. Why we always spread hatred now, even u have got ur free country.
<br />e. I normally go through all the papers concerning East Pakistan crises and i always found a hatred towards Pakistan Army from u my bengali brothers. Why.
<br />f. i m from the same Pakistan Army, i have done nothing to u. Granted my forefathers must have done something, well i seek apologies on their behalf because i cannot do any thing at this time except for seeking apologies.
<br />g. why cant we forget those follies which were committed by my forefathers as well as ur forefathers.”
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">REPLY FROM ABUL KASEM</span>:
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<br />To get an idea of how your favourite army killed uncountable innocents and burnt thousands of our villages, may I request you to go through<span style="font-weight:bold;"> page 91</span> of the famous document <span style="font-weight:bold;">"Witness to Surrender</span>" by Pakistani Brig. Siddque Salik?
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<br />Now, please tell me:
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<br />How can we ever forgive and forget an army whose soldiers indiscriminately killed our young children and old people? I can tell you for certainty that there is probably not a single family in BD (Bangladesh) who has not lost at least one close or distant relation in the <span style="font-weight:bold;">gratuitous murder committed by the Jawans of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span>.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">How can we forgive and forget those soldiers who raped our mothers, sisters, wives and daughters? They perpetrated this Islamic rape (to use their terminology) to around 400,000 of our women. The Islamic army of Pakistan regarded our women as captives (ganimatter maal), and, as per Islamic law, they were entitled to have sex with them. Please tell me how could we tolerate and forget such calumnious, debauched rectitude of Pakistani Jawans and Officers?</span>
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<br />How can we forgive an army who treated us like they were treating animals and cattle? <span style="font-weight:bold;">They believed, Allah had permitted them to kill all the unbelievers living in BD. This, of course, included almost the entire Bengali race, who, according to general Yahya Khan, were not true Muslims and, so, were fair game for the genocide.</span> I have written an elaborate essay on this.
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<br />And, how can we forgive a nation that has not, as yet, given to us what rightfully belonged to us?
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<br />Please answer me: If you had gone through what we Bengalis had suffered for nine months, would you have forgiven the perpetrators of rape, loot and arson? <span style="font-weight:bold;">Do you think that by forgiving your great Muslim army, we would be able to forget the atrocities they committed when we were helpless and unarmed?</span>
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<br />Are you trying to absolve your nation of the assets it owes to us by seeking our forgiveness?
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<br />Let the Pak-Govt pay us back, as was on 26 March 1971 <span style="font-weight:bold;">(A) half of the State-Bank reserve (B) Half of PIA, (C) Half of Pakistan National Shipping Corporation and all other national resources.</span> Don't you think this is just fair, Islamically speaking? - as you claim to be a very good Muslim?
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<br />Only when these are settled, could we talk of peace and reconciliation. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Our hearts and minds will burn for ever, for what Pakistan army did to us in the name of Islam and the so-called Islamic brotherhood</span>, which were just the tools of exploitation and oppression for the simple-minded and gullible Bengali people. <span style="font-weight:bold;">We shall never ever let this happen to us again.</span>
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<br />To the Pakistan army, India is the eternal enemy. <span style="font-weight:bold;">This is not true for us</span>. We can, and we are, living quite amicably with India. We never forget the help Indian government and the its common people accorded us generously when Pakistan army was killing us. Please know that India is not our enemy, it can never be. We shall, for ever, remain grateful to India and its citizens to let us survive when your Islamic brothers were slaughtering us.”
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">BuA: In my numerous trips to Dhaka, the above sentiment is nearly all pervasive and being a Bengali myself, I speak the same language as Bangladeshis. And during my work, I wanted to meet the person I will vilify shortly, Salahuddin Qader Chowdhury – however he just refused to meet me after he came to know I was from India.</span>
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<br />In that fight for freedom there were elements in Bangladesh that sided with the Paskistan Army – <span style="font-weight:bold;">they were Jamaat e Islami, Al Badr & Razakars</span> amongst others.
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Satm5OcXTrI/AAAAAAAAAjI/pjn_AN8F-so/s1600-h/toprz.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 176px; height: 400px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Satm5OcXTrI/AAAAAAAAAjI/pjn_AN8F-so/s400/toprz.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308449719101902514" /></a>
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<br />The <span style="font-weight:bold;">Razakars</span> were officially created by the Pakistani military and trained and paid by the government of Pakistan should not be forgotten - and will become an important element in any future genocide trial.
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<br />The history of 1971 and the Bangladesh Genocide is under attack from revisionists and genocide deniers. The victims of this attack will be the younger generation of Bangladeshis unless there is an attempt to preserve that history.
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<br /><a href="http://www.genocidebangladesh.org/?page_id=16">Razakars</a></span>: (1970) They are paid Rs. 3 a day (25 pence at the official rate) and receive seven days’ training which appears to consist entirely of learning how to shoot a police Lee-Enfield rifle. Their work consists of “security checks” - guiding the West Pakistan troops to the homes of supporters of the Awami League. They are supposed to be under the orders of local `peace committees” which are selected by the military authorities on a similar basis of “loyalty to Pakistan”. These people are, in fact, representatives of the political parties - were routed at the last elections, with an admixture of men with criminal records and bigoted Muslims who have been persuaded that strong arm methods are needed to protect their religion.
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatnNcuo0bI/AAAAAAAAAjQ/BDQB-52EIJE/s1600-h/cleanse+of+razakars.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 233px; height: 320px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatnNcuo0bI/AAAAAAAAAjQ/BDQB-52EIJE/s320/cleanse+of+razakars.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308450066534027698" /></a>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.hindu.com/fline/fl1524/15240040.htm">ASSASINATION OF SHEIKH MUJIBUR RAHMAN</a></span>:
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Satnfzlc6dI/AAAAAAAAAjY/kdCoJpTKAsY/s1600-h/MUJIBUR.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 105px; height: 114px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Satnfzlc6dI/AAAAAAAAAjY/kdCoJpTKAsY/s400/MUJIBUR.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308450381907159506" /></a>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">NOVEMBER 8, 1998 could well be a turning point in Bangladesh's history</span>. On that day, Kazi Gulam Rasul, a District and Sessions Court judge of Dhaka, s<span style="font-weight:bold;">entenced to death by firing squad in public 15 former Army officers, the "self-confessed killers" of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, 23 years after the country's founding father was assassinated in a military coup that overthrew Bangladesh's first Government.</span> Mujibur Rahman was brutally murdered along with 26 others,<span style="font-weight:bold;"> including his wife, three sons (one of them was just 10 years old)</span>, two daughters-in-law, brother, close relatives, political associates and security men in a pre-dawn attack on August 15, 1975.
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<br />The historic verdict, which was delivered after 17 months of hearings, came at the end of an agonising trial. The "Bangabandhu murder case" - as it is called - was filed in October 1996, more than 21 years after the assassination took place and four months after the Awami League Government led by Sheikh Hasina, one of Mujibur Rahman's two surviving daughters, assumed office.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The shame that accompanied the killings was deepened by the proclamation in 1975 of the Indemnity Ordinance by the military government of Khandaker Mostaque Ahmed, who appointed himself President of the country following Mujibur Rahman's assassination.</span> The infamous Ordinance was incorporated in the Constitution by President Gen. Ziaur Rahman. The Ordinance granted indemnity from prosecution to those who plotted for and participated in the bloody political changeover.
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<br />However, the Shiekh Hasina Government, after it assumed office in June 1996, sought the opinion of a panel of judges and legal experts and cleared the hurdles in the way of prosecution of the plotters. In October 1996, cases were filed against 19 persons in connection with the assassination. <span style="font-weight:bold;">All but one of the accused were former military personnel.</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">WHAT IS THE PRESENT SITUATION?</span>
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<br />Sheikh Hasina, one of the two surviving daughters of the assassinated Mujibur Rahman is the Prime Minister of Bangladesh today, having secured over 2/3 majority in the Parliament.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> She wanted to put on trial the 1971 collaborators.
<br />If one looks at the collaborators – they were Bangladeshis who sided with Pakistan Army. </span>
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<br />Hence, Pakistan has told Bangladesh that the “time is not ripe” for Dhaka’s conducting the trial of ‘war criminals’ who committed atrocities on civilians during the 1971 freedom movement.
<br /><a href="http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/islamabad-uneasy-at-dhaka-trying-war-criminals_100156033.html">
<br />Islamabad is very uneasy</a> at the prospect of the war criminals trials in Bangaldesh and does not want the true story of genocide to come out in public, specially now since it is already in the eyes of the world as a “terrorist” spewing entity and home to Al-Qaeda and Taliban.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">MERE COINCIDENCE OF TIMING OF MUTINY - I THINK NOT</span> !
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Sayyv8AiT0I/AAAAAAAAAkA/pHXtHkJvmKc/s1600-h/nizami.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 309px; height: 206px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/Sayyv8AiT0I/AAAAAAAAAkA/pHXtHkJvmKc/s400/nizami.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308814597394943810" /></a>
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">MATIUR RAHMAN NIZAMI</span>
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<br />Just a few days prior to the BDR mutiny, trials had begun against the JI chief, Matiur Rahman Nizami, and nine others for "carrying out a massacre during the war of independence in 1971".
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<br />MAIN PERPETRATORS OF THE BDR MUTINY - YOU TUBE:
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">SALAUDDIN QADER CHOWDHURY:</span>
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatntzQk7fI/AAAAAAAAAjg/ADlAfGTlR0U/s1600-h/salauddin+qader.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 150px; height: 180px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatntzQk7fI/AAAAAAAAAjg/ADlAfGTlR0U/s400/salauddin+qader.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308450622337773042" /></a>
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<br />The Bangladesh Liberation War Documents and a report by the people's commission appointed by the Committee for Elimination of the Killers and Collaborators of 1971 <span style="font-weight:bold;">describe in horrifying details some of the brutalities Salauddin had gratuitously committed against freedom fighters in Chittagong district. These include the gruesome killing of 71-year-old principal Nutan Chandra Singha, and assassination of Farooq, a student leader and Dayalhari Biswas, another college student. </span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Soon after the liberation of Bangladesh, Salauddin and his father were arrested when they were about to flee to Pakistan with a maund of gold.</span> Following a brief detention, they were let off under the general amnesty declared by the Sheikh Mujib government. Salauddin has thrived ever since on numerous heinous crimes. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Killing and maiming of political opponents are his favourite pastimes.</span>
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<br />In Khaleda Zia’s government, he was an MP. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Salauddin Qader Chaudhury lets go no pretext to spit venom against India to arouse communal passions against religious minorities. He is invariably involved in every act of Hindu-cleansing in Raujan upazilla and Chittagong metropolitan areas. </span>
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<br />It's an open secret that <span style="font-weight:bold;">Salauddin has made a huge fortune through his close links with the criminal underworld and smuggling networks operating in the Chittagong port and coastal belt</span>. Despite his pathological hatred for India, in 1991, he made a frantic bid for the GSA of the Indian Airlines and Air India. <span style="font-weight:bold;">His failure to clinch that lucrative deal only sharpened his enmity towards India. </span>
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<br />Originally <span style="font-weight:bold;">a diehard Muslim Leaguer</span>, Salauddin served as a Cabinet minister in the late Eighties in the Cabinet of Gen. Ershad. He joined the <span style="font-weight:bold;">BNP</span> just before the parliamentary election in 2001. His machinations ensured the defeat of the BNP candidate and freedom fighter Col. (Retd.) Oli Ahmed <span style="font-weight:bold;">to the unofficial Jamaat candidate Shajahan Chaudhury</span>. Despite this treachery, Begum Zia appointed him her adviser on parliamentary affairs <span style="font-weight:bold;">solely for the purpose of using his unending mischief potential against the Awami League</span>. Salauddin has been doing this task most effectively, making it impossible for the opposition Awami League to function in the Parliament.
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<br />Despite this un-edifying profile of the man, the <span style="font-weight:bold;">BNP-Jamaat government has nominated Salauddin as its candidate for the post of Secretary General of the Organisation of Islamic Countries</span>. This has triggered an avalanche of protests throughout the country. For his part, Salauddin has launched a fierce counter-offensive against his detractors. He has filed two defamation cases against the editors of two respected dailies of Dhaka for publishing criticisms of his nomination.
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<br />The Bangladesh intelligentsia has no doubt at all that the Khaleda government has nominated this <a href="http://www.muslimwakeup.com/main/archives/2003/07/war-criminal-to.php">war criminal for the OIC </a>assignment at the instance of Islamabad in the hope that, should he scrape through, it would enormously increase the leverage of the Pakistan-Bangladesh axis in the Islamic world that can be used, among other things, to discomfit and disturb India.
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<br />He had the temerity to call the then opposition leader and now Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina as <span style="font-weight:bold;">“bua” = housemaid</span>.
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<br />He is the mafia owner of the port of Chittagong and runs a racket on illegal arms through his transport company. The last "<span style="font-weight:bold;">ENORMOUS</span>" haul of illegal shipment of arms in Chittagong port was pinpointed to him. The <a href="http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/fline/fl2110/stories/20040521000206100.htm">Hindu newspaper</a> reports: The cache included <span style="font-weight:bold;">690 7.62 mm T-56-I sub-machine guns (SMGs); 600 7.62 mm T-56-2 SMGs; 150 40 mm T-69 rocket launchers; 840 40 mm rockets; 400 9 mm semi-automatic spot rifles; 100 `Tommy Guns'; 150 rocket launchers; 2,000 launching grenades; 25,020 hand grenades; 6,392 magazines of SMG and other arms; 700,000 rounds of SMG cartridges; 739,680 rounds of 7.62 mm calibre; and 400,000 cartridges of other weapons. Most of the arms and ammunition were reportedly of Korean, Italian, Chinese and American</span> make. (<span style="font-weight:bold;">And this was only part of the huge cache that were caught, the rest suspected to have reached its destination</span>).
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<br />Independent media investigations also revealed that a labour leader linked to <span style="font-weight:bold;">Jamaat-e-Islami</span>, a major constituent of the ruling coalition, had employed workers at the jetty of the state-owned Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Limited (CUFL) <span style="font-weight:bold;">to offload the arms from two fishing trawlers and a local Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader supervised the clandestine operation</span>. BuA:<span style="font-weight:bold;"> This was none other than Salauddin Qader Choudhury.</span>
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<br />Interestingly the Chittagong City Mayor and Awami League leader A.B.M. Mohiuddin Chowdhury alleged that<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Indian insurgent groups ran "at least 50 to 60 camps" in Bangladesh to train militants</span>. Addressing a media conference on April 10, the Mayor claimed that <span style="font-weight:bold;">the weapons were sent by the U.S. and Pakistan "to arm Indian rebels camped in Chittagong Hill Tracts</span>" (US & PAKISTAN ???)
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/91375">Amerian Chronicle</a></span> reporting on the arms haul points out : "...<span style="font-weight:bold;">former advisor to the Prime Minister, Salauddin Quader Chowdhury might have been involved in the arms hauls. But, none of these figures could ever be interrogated by the members of the investigations authorities, as they all are extremely influential politically in the country</span>."
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<br />It was his fleet of trucks that were caught ferrying arms to ULFA and other terror groups in India’s north eastern corridor. <span style="font-weight:bold;">No wonder, he was ISI’s favorite man in Dhaka.</span>
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<br />He was also a “<span style="font-weight:bold;">collaborato</span>r” in the 1971 and Sheikh Hasina surely would have targeted Salauddin first (the comment of bua would have instigated her no doubt).
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">BDR</span>
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatpGzd8-yI/AAAAAAAAAjo/Df8kSIVq2m4/s1600-h/BDR.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 150px; height: 150px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SatpGzd8-yI/AAAAAAAAAjo/Df8kSIVq2m4/s400/BDR.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308452151402232610" /></a>
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<br />The defense of border falls to BDR and in pay terms they draw a far lesser salary than Bangladesh Army. During Khaleda Zia’s regime, the <span style="font-weight:bold;">BDR was infiltrated with fundamentalists</span> owing allegiance to <span style="font-weight:bold;">Jamaat e Islami, AL BADR, HUJI-B</span> and other terror organizations – and overseen by Salauddin.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Seeing the trials of “war criminals” as an end of the road, both Pakistan Army (whose image will be tarnished) and Salauddin (who will get hanged, if found guilty) found common ground to stir up trouble in Bangladesh using lower level BDR recruits owing allegiance to it and using the discontent on the pay disparity as an excuse (valid, as it was). </span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Both Pakistan and BNP and Jamaat from time to time tried to kill of Sheikh Hasina and this was one more attempt. That Army Chief Moeen Ahmed may himself have been a target in this mutiny - for being "SECULAR" - is not ruled out either.</span>. However this failed in the final objective and full scale of Pakistan’s links with the “mutiny” is yet to come out.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Anup Chetia</span>, the jailed ULFA leader in Dhaka, is set to be handed over to India. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Surely this could be bad news to Paksitan</span>, as Chetia will be made to showcase the close relation ISI had with ULFA and other terror groups.
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<br />What is yet to come out is the dubious role the Bangladesh intelligence agency the DGFI played in the BDR revolt. The DGFI has sold itself lock, stock and barrel to ISI. Efforts are on to cleanse the rot, though. Read this excellent blog : <a href="http://bengalspotlight.blogspot.com/2008/07/dgfi-isi-plan-to-capture-bengal-through.html">DGFI & ISI plan to capture Bengal</a> (West Bengal, INDIA) through vote machinery.
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<br />For an excellent perspective from Bangladesh - do go to these "important" blog - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://shadakalo.blogspot.com/">Shada Kalo</a></span> (White & Black) & <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.shuchinta.com/">SUCHINTA</a></span> (Good Thoughts).
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<br />SO THAT WE DO NOT FORGET:
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<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qk446FveZp8&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qk446FveZp8&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-70319376792783171162010-12-27T08:00:00.000-08:002010-12-27T08:12:23.901-08:00PAKISTAN ARMY ADMITS TO SENDING SUICIDE BOMBERS<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TRi4bela7MI/AAAAAAAABCw/UskDRTy2uuo/s1600/pakarmy_suicide%2Bmission.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 288px; height: 248px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TRi4bela7MI/AAAAAAAABCw/UskDRTy2uuo/s400/pakarmy_suicide%2Bmission.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5555392922567503042" /></a><br /><br />Thanks to some bureacratic bungling, <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Pak-owning-suicide-bomber-makes-its-intentions-clear-Army-Chief/articleshow/7098242.cms">Pak Army website hosted this </a>before blanking it out later.<br /><br />Points to note:<br />1. Look at the OPERATIONS - It states <strong>SUICIDE ATTACK </strong>(how blatant can u get?)<br />2. Zulfikar Ahmed was treated in Delhi - documents with hospital prove it - where he died due to complications.<br />3. His treatment was funded by Pakistan Embassy.<br /><br />Ergo - QEDBENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-86522520232526366952010-10-21T22:05:00.000-07:002010-10-22T00:52:57.742-07:00Ambassador Timothy Roeman and 9/11<span style="font-weight:bold;">Ambassador Timothy Roeman is doing yeoman service for the US government in trying to help bring business to the US from Indian government as well as from private companies. Nothing wrong in that, its his job and he is paving the ground for the visit of his boss – President Barack Hussein Obama.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TMEerCoPmOI/AAAAAAAABCk/Oj5S6bd3h8Y/s1600/TIMOTHY_ROEMER.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 399px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TMEerCoPmOI/AAAAAAAABCk/Oj5S6bd3h8Y/s400/TIMOTHY_ROEMER.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5530735542176553186" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">However what is not reported in the press here in India is his dalliance with the 9/11 commission which got bribed and were put through other pressure to simply erase the role of Pakistan in the 9/11. In that I find Timothy Roeman guilty and we need to also see him in that light</span>.<br /><br />Yes, he is American and he will see his country’s interest first. But what was the interest in hiding the Pakistan’s ISI role in funding and executing the 9/11 attacks through al-Qaeda. <br /><br />But guess what Ambassador Roeman: "<span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/18/osama-bin-laden-pakistan-nato">Osama bin Laden living in comfort in Pakistan, says Nato official</a></span>". You had a chance to nail Pakistan - you guys did not !!<br /><br />The earlier article I wrote on this subject (Nov 21, 2008):<br /><br />There was damning evidence linking ISI with Al Qaeda and 9-11. In fact, there has been serious evaluation and part of US Intelligence even stated that ISI masterminded 9-11, Al – Qaeda was a mere facilitator. <br /><br />A few comments here, as I will deal with this in details in a later blog.<br /><br /><strong>Arnaud de Borchgrave</strong>, editor of Washington Times stated: “ <strong>Former Pakistani intelligence officers knew beforehand all about Sept – 11 attacks. They even advised Osama bin Laden (OBL) and his cohorts how to attack key targets in the US with hijacked civilian aircraft. And bin Laden has been undergoing periodic dialysis treatment in a military hospital in Peshawar, Pakistan</strong>.”<br /><br /><strong>CIA officer Gary Schroen</strong> who spearheaded US’ search for OBL in Afghanistan stated: “<strong>ISI officials – probably at the colonel level, are very well aware of OBL’s presence in Pakistan tribal areas. Musharraf was so afraid of the internal political consequences of finding OBL that he doesn’t want to know his whereabouts. I think the philosophy of the Taliban, this fundamentalist view , is popular there. So Bin Laden, I think, strikes them as heroic. He fought a jihad against the Russians, and he’s bloodied America’s nose time and again</strong>.”<br /><br />THE MOST DIRECT LINK- WHICH FBI CONFIRMS: <strong>ISI wired money to 9-11 lead hijacker, through Omar Sheikh. Why then is Omar Sheikh not being dealt with when he is already under sentence of death? Astonishingly his appeal to a higher court against the sentence was adjourned for the 32nd time and has since been adjourned indefinitely. This is all the more remarkable when this is the same Omar Sheikh who, at the behest of General Mahmood Ahmed, head of the ISI, wired $100,000 to Mohammed Atta, the leading 9/11 hijacker, before the New York attacks</strong>, as confirmed by <strong>Dennis Lormel, director of FBI's financial crimes unit</strong>.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo7e-n4KKI/AAAAAAAAANs/Eovd3BGYtJQ/s1600-h/mahmood+ahmed.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 100px; height: 125px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo7e-n4KKI/AAAAAAAAANs/Eovd3BGYtJQ/s400/mahmood+ahmed.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272091717182957730" /></a><br />GEN. MAHMOOD AHMED<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo7e_d8AtI/AAAAAAAAAN0/aG275zjiCkM/s1600-h/omar+sheikh.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 94px; height: 106px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo7e_d8AtI/AAAAAAAAAN0/aG275zjiCkM/s400/omar+sheikh.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272091717409702610" /></a><br />OMAR SHEIKH<br /><br />When <strong>Mahmood Ahmed</strong>, <strong>head of ISI</strong>, was <strong>exposed by the <a href="http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/tvaradarajan/?id=110004025">Wall Street Journal </a>as having sent the money to the hijackers</strong>, he was forced to "<strong>retire</strong>" by President Pervez Musharraf.<br /><br /><strong>Bruce Reidel</strong>, the then National Security Council senior director for South Asia in the Bill Clinton administration stated: “<strong>If there was a state sponsor of al-Qaeda, it was the Pakistani army, acting through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)"</strong>. <br /><br />The following report was received by the 9-11 commission from “the” anonymous well connected Pakistani source : “<strong>The core issue of instability and violence in South Asia is the character, activities and persistence of the militarized Islamist fundamentalist state in PAKISTAN. No cure for this canker can be arrived at through any strategy of negotiations, support and financial aid to the military regine, or by a regulated transition to democracy. The imprints of every major act of international Islamist terrorism invariably passes through Pakistan, right from September – 11 ( 9-11) – where virtually all the participants had trained, resided or met in, coordinated with, or received from or through Pakistan – to major acts of terrorism across South Asia and South East Asia, as well as major networks of terror that have been discovered in Europe</strong>.”<br /><br />Given that the 9-11 commission had extra-ordinary proof to implicate ISI and Pakistan for 9-11 along with Al-Qaeda, the final report <strong>does not find any reference to either ISI, Pakistan or indeed Saudi Arabia</strong>.<br /><br /><strong>What transpired?</strong><br /><br />It seems the Pakistan foreign office paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to lobbyists in USA to get the <strong>“anti-Pakistan” references dropped from the 9-11 inquiry commission report</strong>. <br /><br />Pakistan weekly, THE FRIDAY TIMES claimed, its story is based on <em>disclosures made by foreign service officials to the Public Accounts Committee at a secret meeting in Islamabad</em> (March 2006).<br /><br />The sensational claim was – “<strong>some of the 9-11 commission members were also BRIBED to prevent them from including DAMAGING information about PAKISTAN. The disclosure sheds doubt about the integrity and honesty of the members of the 9-11 inquiry commission and, above all, the authenticity of the information in their final report</strong>.”<br /><br />The report quoted an officer as saying that dramatic changes were made in the final draft of inquiry commission after the lobbyists got to work. <br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060313/asp/nation/story_5962372.asp">FRIDAY TIMES</a> claimed, A LOT OF MONEY WAS USED TO SILENCE MEMBERS</strong>.<br /><br />According to the report, the lobbyists also helped Pakistan win sympathy of 75 US Congressmen as part of its strategy to guard Islamabad’s interests in Washington.<br /><br />This resulted in a complete U-Turn and Pakistan emerged as front runner in the fight against terrorism and US pumped in Billions of dollars to a doddering Pakistan economy on the brink of collapse.<br /><br /><em>Did not the 9-11 commission members have a patriotic duty to find the truth? <strong>The answer to that is NO</strong>. There were many skeletons in the closet.</em><br /><br />Andrew Rice, chair of the 9-11 commission Committee of the Sept 11 Families For Peaceful Tomorrow organization is among millions of terribly frustrated Americans and he stated: “This official 9-11 commission was “fixed in” from the beginning.”<br /><br />A senior EU Diplomat stated: “They (the 9-11 commission) seem to be interested in putting up a good show as a coverup; and of course they’re very worried about damage control.”<br /><br />THE <strong>9-11 INQUIRY COMMISSION </strong>– A FEW MEMBERS.<br /><br />This commission comprised nine men and a woman, five Republicans and five Democrats. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YSXrD2I/AAAAAAAAANc/GGRvYCce06I/s1600-h/thomas_kean.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 165px; height: 225px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YSXrD2I/AAAAAAAAANc/GGRvYCce06I/s400/thomas_kean.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272089403201359714" /></a><br /><strong>Chairman Thomas Kean</strong>: His was the case of most devastating conflict of interest. The US $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of Sept 11 included TWO FORMER business partners of Kean – Saudi Billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz (brother in law of OBL) and Mohd. Hussein al-Almoudi. Mahfouz transferred millions of dollars from a Saudi Pension Fund to bank accounts in London and New York linked to Al-Qaeda. He is also the former director of <strong>BCCI – the Pakistani bank in the centre of $12 billion bankruptcy scandal and terrorist links</strong>. <br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo4n2wHN7I/AAAAAAAAANE/nmS8HjsZCm8/s1600-h/khalid_bin_mahfouz.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 182px; height: 183px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo4n2wHN7I/AAAAAAAAANE/nmS8HjsZCm8/s400/khalid_bin_mahfouz.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272088571153954738" /></a><br />KHALID BIN MAHFOUZ<br /><br />A little digression to show the hand of Khalid Bin Mahfouz in India's terrorist funding too. See chart below. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Click on it to view enlarged version.</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo4gb7gzLI/AAAAAAAAAM8/07m68TqT3wg/s1600-h/Amex-Bank-Sheikh-Khalid-bin-Mahfouz.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 282px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo4gb7gzLI/AAAAAAAAAM8/07m68TqT3wg/s400/Amex-Bank-Sheikh-Khalid-bin-Mahfouz.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272088443694927026" /></a><br /><br />(Note: <strong>Bush himself had business links with Mahfouz – various investments in Houston, TX</strong>).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YZjrvYI/AAAAAAAAANk/4KhOfI-DBA8/s1600-h/Zelikow_150.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 168px; height: 226px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YZjrvYI/AAAAAAAAANk/4KhOfI-DBA8/s400/Zelikow_150.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272089405130784130" /></a><br /><strong>Philip D Zelikow </strong>– ultimate Bush insider, who worked with Jim Baker. Co-wrote two books with Condolizza Rice. Mr Zelikow, a former academic, once tried to push through wording in a draft report that suggested a greater tie between Osama bin Laden and Iraq, in line with White House claims but not with the views of the commission's staff. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1577712/911-inquiry-head-'tried-to-shield-George-Bush'.html">Read this Telegraph UK article</a>.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YCYn3AI/AAAAAAAAANM/W_kza8k3P7M/s1600-h/jamie+s+gorelick.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 88px; height: 99px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YCYn3AI/AAAAAAAAANM/W_kza8k3P7M/s400/jamie+s+gorelick.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272089398910376962" /></a><br /><strong>Jamie S Gorelick</strong> – very close to CIA director George Tenet. This means no chance for the commission to investigate dubious covert operations by the CIA which may forment terrorism instead of fighting it.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YJZhW6I/AAAAAAAAANU/bI-h28lDZ4A/s1600-h/Sec.+Lehman+at+Pod.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 178px; height: 200px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSo5YJZhW6I/AAAAAAAAANU/bI-h28lDZ4A/s400/Sec.+Lehman+at+Pod.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272089400793193378" /></a><br /><strong>John Lehman</strong> – ex Navy secretary under Reagan and served alongside two of commissions’ key witnesses: Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former counterterrorism head Richard Clarke. Lehman is Kissinger’s man in the commission (de-facto Bilderberg group oversight).<br /><br />It's <strong>unlikely</strong> fellow members at the 9-11 Commission will ask Kean to reveal to what extent he was aware of Mahfouz's links to al-Qaeda.<br /> <br /><strong>As to the 28 pages of the joint congressional committee detailing Saudi support to al-Qaeda, they also seem to have vanished into thin air.</strong> <br /><br />The commission, for instance, also will not investigate the foreign policy that started it all in the late 1970s and early 1980s: the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA's) full support to the hardcore international Islamic brigades which joined the jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan - and then turned against the US after the first Gulf War in 1991. This would mean that the commission would have to seriously investigate Secretary of State Colin Powell and his number two, Richard Armitage, key players in those 1980s proceedings. <br /><br />Former national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, also one of the key members of the Council on Foreign Relations, was the mastermind behind the building of an Islamic network in Afghanistan - as part of a huge, covert CIA operation. <strong>To a large extent, the modern Islamic jihad exists thanks to Brzezinski.</strong> There are four members of the Council on Foreign Relations in the commission. There's hardly any chance of them investigating their fellow Brzezinski.<br /><br />The commission report was anyway going to get whitewashed with or without Pakistan lobbyists pumping in money. Pakistan just helped itself get a clear name in the bargain. If the BIG BOYS were anyway going to play dirty, why not PAKISTAN? <br /><br /><em>The US always stated that the warlords in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal areas can be bought by the highest bidder. They forgot the mention that they too could be bought !</em><br /><br />PAKSITAN – MONEY FLOW AFTER 9/11<br /><br />The lobbyists not only got the name of Pakistan and ISI out of the final 9-11 commission report, it also helped Pakistan win sympathy of 75 US Congressmen as part of its strategy to guard Islamabad’s interests in Washington. It was a matter of time before the money came in.<br /><br />Dr Farrukh Saleem, noted economist in Pakistan commented: “ <strong>The US Department of Defense has been depositing a cool $100 million a month in our treasury for the last four years. The US forgave $3 billion worth of bilateral debt, and then convinced the Paris Club lender nations to reschedule a large portion of $38 billion bilateral debt on easy terms. Add it all up – and thank OSAMA – for the total bonanza is going to be a colossal $40 BILLION</strong>.”<br /><br />No wonder, in Pakistan, Al Qaeda is known as <strong>Al Faeda</strong>.<br />Faeda in Urdu means = BENEFIT.<br /><br />Readers are free to draw their conclusions from this. <br /><br />I only wonder, why Colin Powell is a friend of Pakistan (forget the military liking the military – is there a money trail, I wonder?)<br /><br />=====================================================<br /><br /><strong>USA - SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET? <br /><br />NOT AT ALL, IT WAS FOR A GOOD CAUSE - WHY SHY AWAY FROM THEM ?!!</strong><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSpBnyJGfiI/AAAAAAAAAN8/_oAPIIpj3pc/s1600-h/brzezinski.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 88px; height: 118px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSpBnyJGfiI/AAAAAAAAAN8/_oAPIIpj3pc/s400/brzezinski.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272098465521237538" /></a><br />Zbigniew Brzezinski: "<strong>What was more important in the world view of history? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet empire? A few stirred up Muslims or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War</strong>?"<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSpBoKjKodI/AAAAAAAAAOE/H1xA_p72xnE/s1600-h/orrin+hatch.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 119px; height: 150px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SSpBoKjKodI/AAAAAAAAAOE/H1xA_p72xnE/s400/orrin+hatch.jpeg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5272098472073011666" /></a><br />Senator Orrin Hatch: "<strong>It was worth it. Those were very important, pivotal matters that played an important role in the downfall of the Soviet Union</strong>."<br /><br />Osama bin Laden was the creation of Saudi Intelligence (Prince Turki) and CIA. <br /><br /><strong>Dr. Azzam and al-Zawahari had fought for the CIA in Lebanon and Palestine.</strong><br /><br />Moro Islamic Liberation Front (milf) was funded by Al Qaeda and trained by ISI. These were Islamists in southern Philippines. You would expect USA to take good care of this overwhelmingly Christian island. But its eyes were locked on to Soviet demise and so "anything went". <strong>CIA cover flights had flown 200 MILF mujahidden from Chittagong (BANGLADESH) to Karachi (PAKISTAN), in the garb of special flights for HAJ pilgrims to fight in Afghanistan.</strong><br /><br /><strong>Small contingent of US Special Forces helped ISI airlift Pakistani mujahidden to GEORGIA anad adjoining ARMENIA. Some jihadis were also transferred by boat from TURKMENISTAN to SOUTHERN DAGESTAN from where they traversed to CHECHNYA. These were also favourite arms supply routes for the ISI and the CIA.</strong><br /><br />While Pakistan and Al Qaeda were focussed on creating an Islamic Caliphate, the US need not have worried about as Brzezinski said " <strong>A FEW STIRRED UP MUSLIMS</strong>" !!<br /><br />====================================================<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/202522/radical-al-qaeda-cleric-lunched-at-pentagon">Post 9/11 a radical Al Qaeda cleric lunched at the Pentagon</a></span> - its interesting what we are fed in the name of <span style="font-weight:bold;">what is right</span>.<br /><br />The chief sponsor of Al-Qaeda, the Saudis are getting a whopping<span style="font-weight:bold;"> <a href="http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=226591">US $ 60 BILLION arms deal from the US</a> </span>in what is being sold as another right - to counter IRAN. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The House of Saud is responsible for funding and creating Taliban and setting up madrassas based on wahabbi doctrine (from where Taliban and al-Qaeda draw irs foot soldiers from) - and it gets rewarded. So does Pakistan get rewarded by the US. And we are told - IT'S RIGHT :).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">PERSONAL OPINION:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Ambassador Roemer is guilty of letting Pakistan’s ISI scot free. However it is my personal opinion that he may perhaps have been a patriotic American and not necessarily a Pakistan sympathizer. Be that as it may, it did India (and the world) no good.</span><br /><br />A few transcripts of Roemer’s views and you will understand what I am saying.<br /><br />In Washington Post article (excerpts) - <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A61252-2004Apr8?language=printer">Transcript - Rice's testimony on 9/11</a></span> : <br /><br /> KEAN: Congressman Roemer?<br /><br />ROEMER: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.<br /><br />Welcome, Dr. Rice. And I just want to say to you you've made it through 2 1/2 hours so far with only Governor Thompson to go. And if you'd like a break of five minutes, I'd be happy to yield you some of Governor Thompson's time.<br /><br />(LAUGHTER)<br /><br />Dr. Rice, you have said in your statement, which I find very interesting, "The terrorists were at war with us, but we were not at war with them."<br /><br />Across several administrations of both parties, the response was insufficient. And tragically, for all the language of war spoken before September 11th, this country simply was not on a war footing.<br /><br />You're the national security advisor to the president of the United States. The buck may stop with the president; the buck certainly goes directly through you as the principal advisor to the president on these issues.<br /><br />And it really seems to me that there were failures and mistakes, structural problems, all kinds of issues here leading up to September 11th that could have and should have been done better.<br /><br />Doesn't that beg that there should have been more accountability? That there should have been a resignation or two? That there should have been you or the president saying to the rest of the administration, somehow, somewhere, that this was not done well enough?<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer, by definition, we didn't have enough information, we didn't have enough protection, because the attack happened -- by definition. And I think we've all asked ourselves, what more could have been done?<br /><br />I will tell you if we had known that an attack was coming against the United States, that an attack was coming against New York and Washington, we would have moved heaven and earth to stop it.<br /><br />But you heard the character of the threat report we were getting: something very, very big is going to happen. How do you act on "something very, very big is going to happen" beyond trying to put people on alert? Most of the threat reporting was abroad.<br /><br />I took an oath, as I've said, to protect...<br /><br />ROEMER: I've heard it -- I've heard you say this....<br /><br />RICE: And I take it very seriously. I know that those who attacked us that day -- and attacked us, by the way, because of who we are, no other reason, but for who we are -- that they are the responsible party for the war that they launched against us...<br /><br />ROEMER: But Dr. Rice...<br /><br />RICE: ... the attacks that they made, and that our responsibility...<br /><br />ROEMER: You have said several times...<br /><br />RICE: ... that our responsibility is to...<br /><br />ROEMER: You have said several times that your responsibility, being in office for 230 days, was to defend and protect the United States.<br /><br />RICE: Of course.<br /><br />ROEMER: You had an opportunity, I think, with Mr. Clarke, who had served a number of presidents going back to the Reagan administration; who you'd decided to keep on in office; who was a pile driver, a bulldozer, so to speak -- but this person who you, in the Woodward interview -- he's the very first name out of your mouth when you suspect that terrorists have attacked us on September the 11th. You say, I think, immediately it was a terrorist attack; get Dick Clarke, the terrorist guy.<br /><br />Even before you mentioned Tenet and Rumsfeld's names, "Get Dick Clarke."<br /><br />Why don't you get Dick Clarke to brief the president before 9/11? Here is one of the consummate experts that never has the opportunity to brief the president of the United States on one of the most lethal, dynamic and agile threats to the United States of America.<br /><br />Why don't you use this asset? Why doesn't the president ask to meet with Dick Clarke?<br /><br />RICE: Well, the president was meeting with his director of central intelligence. And Dick Clarke is a very, very fine counterterrorism expert -- and that's why I kept him on.<br /><br />And what I wanted Dick Clarke to do was to manage the crisis for us and help us develop a new strategy. And I can guarantee you, when we had that new strategy in place, the president -- who was asking for it and wondering what was happening to it -- was going to be in a position to engage it fully.<br /><br />The fact is that what Dick Clarke recommended to us, as he has said, would not have prevented 9/11. I actually would say that not only would it have not prevented 9/11, but if we had done everything on that list, we would have actually been off in the wrong direction about the importance that we needed to attach to a new policy for Afghanistan and a new policy for Pakistan.<br /><br />Because even though Dick is a very fine counterterrorism expert, he was not a specialist on Afghanistan. That's why I brought somebody in who really understood Afghanistan. He was not a specialist on Pakistan. That's why I brought somebody in to deal with Pakistan. He had some very good ideas. We acted on them.<br /><br />Dick Clarke -- let me just step back for a second and say we had a very -- we had a very good relationship.<br /><br />ROEMER: Yes. I'd appreciate it if you could be very concise here, so I can get to some more issues.<br /><br />RICE: But all that he needed -- all that he needed to do was to say, "I need time to brief the president on something." But...<br /><br />ROEMER: I think he did say that. Dr. Rice, in a private interview to us he said he asked to brief the president...<br /><br />RICE: Well, I have to say -- I have to say, Mr. Roemer, to my recollection...<br /><br />ROEMER: You say he didn't.<br /><br />RICE: ... Dick Clarke never asked me to brief the president on counterterrorism. He did brief the president later on cybersecurity, in July, but he, to my recollection, never asked.<br /><br />And my senior directors have an open door to come and say, "I think the president needs to do this. I think the president needs to do that. He needs to make this phone call. He needs to hear this briefing." It's not hard to get done.<br /><br />But I just think that...<br /><br />ROEMER: Let me ask you a question. You just said that the intelligence coming in indicated a big, big, big threat. Something was going to happen very soon and be potentially catastrophic.<br /><br />I don't understand, given the big threat, why the big principals don't get together. The principals meet 33 times in seven months, on Iraq, on the Middle East, on missile defense, China, on Russia. Not once do the principals ever sit down -- you, in your job description as the national security advisor, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the president of the United States -- and meet solely on terrorism to discuss in the spring and the summer, when these threats are coming in, when you've known since the transition that al Qaeda cells are in the United States, when, as the PDB said on August, bin Laden determined to attack the United States.<br /><br />Why don't the principals at that point say, "Let's all talk about this, let's get the biggest people together in our government and discuss what this threat is and try to get our bureaucracies responding to it"?<br /><br />RICE: Once again, on the August 6th memorandum to the president, this was not threat-reporting about what was about to happen. This was an analytic piece that stood back and answered questions from the president.<br /><br />But as to the principals meetings...<br /><br />ROEMER: It has six or seven things in it, Dr. Rice, including the Ressam case when he attacked the United States in the millennium.<br /><br />RICE: Yes, these are his...<br /><br />ROEMER: Has the FBI saying that they think that there are conditions.<br /><br />RICE: No, it does not have the FBI saying that they think that there are conditions. It has the FBI saying that they observed some suspicious activity. That was checked out with the FBI.<br /><br />ROEMER: That is equal to what might be...<br /><br />RICE: No.<br /><br />ROEMER: ... conditions for an attack.<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer, Mr. Roemer, threat reporting...<br /><br />ROEMER: Would you say, Dr. Rice, that we should make that PDB a public document...<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer...<br /><br />ROEMER: ... so we can have this conversation?<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer, threat reporting is: "We believe that something is going to happen here and at this time, under these circumstances." This was not threat reporting.<br /><br />ROEMER: Well, actionable intelligence, Dr. Rice, is when you have the place, time and date. The threat reporting saying the United States is going to be attacked should trigger the principals getting together to say we're going to do something about this, I would think.<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer, let's be very clear. The PDB does not say the United States is going to be attacked. It says bin Laden would like to attack the United States. I don't think you, frankly, had to have that report to know that bin Laden would like to attack the United States.<br /><br />ROEMER: So why aren't you doing something about that earlier than August 6th?<br /><br />(APPLAUSE)<br /><br />RICE: The threat reporting to which we could respond was in June and July about threats abroad. What we tried to do for -- just because people said you cannot rule out an attack on the United States, was to have the domestic agencies and the FBI together to just pulse them and have them be on alert.<br /><br />ROEMER: I agree with that.<br /><br />RICE: But there was nothing that suggested there was going to be a threat...<br /><br />ROEMER: I agree with that.<br /><br />RICE: ... to the United States.<br /><br />ROEMER: I agree with that.<br /><br />So, Dr. Rice, let's say that the FBI is the key here. You say that the FBI was tasked with trying to find out what the domestic threat was.<br /><br />We have done thousands of interviews here at the 9/11 Commission. We've gone through literally millions of pieces of paper. To date, we have found nobody -- nobody at the FBI who knows anything about a tasking of field offices.<br /><br />We have talked to the director at the time of the FBI during this threat period, Mr. Pickard. He says he did not tell the field offices to do this.<br /><br />And we have talked to the special agents in charge. They don't have any recollection of receiving a notice of threat.<br /><br />Nothing went down the chain to the FBI field offices on spiking of information, on knowledge of al Qaeda in the country, and still, the FBI doesn't do anything.<br /><br />Isn't that some of the responsibility of the national security advisor?<br /><br />RICE: The responsibility for the FBI to do what it was asked was the FBI's responsibility. Now, I...<br /><br />ROEMER: You don't think there's any responsibility back to the advisor to the president...<br /><br />RICE: I believe that the responsibility -- again, the crisis management here was done by the CSG. They tasked these things. If there was any reason to believe that I needed to do something or that Andy Card needed to do something, I would have been expected to be asked to do it. We were not asked to do it. In fact, as I've...<br /><br />ROEMER: But don't you ask somebody to do it? You're not asking somebody to do it. Why wouldn't you initiate that?<br /><br />RICE: Mr. Roemer, I was responding to the threat spike and to where the information was. The information was about what might happen in the Persian Gulf, what might happen in Israel, what might happen in North Africa. We responded to that, and we responded vigorously.<br /><br />Now, the structure...<br /><br />ROEMER: Dr. Rice, let me ask you...<br /><br />RICE: ... of the FBI, you will get into next week.<br /><br />ROEMER: You've been helpful to us on that -- on your recommendation.<br /><br />KEAN: Last question, Congressman.<br /><br />ROEMER: Last question, Dr. Rice, talking about responses.<br /><br />Mr. Clarke writes you a memo on September the 4th, where he lays out his frustration that the military is not doing enough, that the CIA is not pushing as hard enough in their agency. And he says we should not wait until the day that hundreds of Americans lay dead in the streets due to a terrorist attack and we think there could have been something more we could do.<br /><br />Seven days prior to September the 11th, he writes this to you.<br /><br />What's your reaction to that at the time, and what's your response to that at the time?<br /><br />RICE: Just one final point I didn't quite complete. I, of course, did understand that the attorney general needed to know what was going on, and I asked that he take the briefing and then ask that he be briefed.<br /><br />Because, again, there was nothing demonstrating or showing that something was coming in the United States. If there had been something, we would have acted on it.<br /><br />ROEMER: I think we should make this document public, Dr. Rice. Would you support making the August 6th PDB public?<br /><br />RICE: The August 6th PDB has been available to you. You are describing it. And the August 6th PDB was a response to questions asked by the president, not a warning document.<br /><br />ROEMER: Why wouldn't it be made public then?<br /><br />RICE: Now, as to -- I think you know the sensitivity of presidential decision memoranda. And I think you know the great lengths to which we have gone to make it possible for this commission to view documents that are not generally -- I don't know if they've ever been -- made available in quite this way.<br /><br />Now, as to what Dick Clarke said on September 4th, that was not a premonition, nor a warning. What that memorandum was, as I was getting ready to go into the September 4th principals meeting to review the NSPD and to approve the new NSPD, what it was a warning to me that the bureaucracies would try to undermine it.<br /><br />Dick goes into great and emotional detail about the long history of how DOD has never been responsive, how the CIA has never been responsive, about how the Predator has gotten hung up because the CIA doesn't really want to fly it.<br /><br />And he says, if you don't fight through this bureaucracy -- he says, at one point, "They're going to all sign on to this NSPD because they won't want to be associated -- they won't want to say they don't want to eliminate the threat of al Qaeda." He says, "But, in effect, you have to go in there and push them, because we'll all wonder about the day when thousands of Americans" and so forth and so on.<br /><br />So that's what this document is. It's not a warning document. It's not a -- all of us had this fear.<br /><br />I think that the chairman mentioned that I said this in an interview, that we would hope not to get to that day. But it would not be appropriate or correct to characterize what Dick wrote to me on September 4th as a warning of an impending attack. What he was doing was, I think, trying to buck me up, so that when I went into this principals meeting, I was sufficiently on guard against the kind of bureaucratic inertia that he had fought all of his life.<br /><br />ROEMER: What is a warning, if August 6th isn't and September 4th isn't, to you?<br /><br />RICE: Well, August 6th is most certainly an historical document that says, "Here's how you might think about al Qaeda." A warning is when you have something that suggests that an attack is impending.<br /><br />And we did not have, on the United States, threat information that was, in any way, specific enough to suggest that something was coming in the United States.<br /><br />The September 4th memo, as I've said to you, was a warning to me not to get dragged down by the bureaucracy, not a warning about September 11th.<br /><br />ROEMER: Thank you, Dr. Rice.<br /><br />Thank you, Mr. Chairman.<br /><br />KEAN: Thank you, Congressman, very, very much. <br /><br />======================================================<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/terrorism/jan-june04/911_06-16.html">In another discussion</a></span> :<br /><br />KWAME HOLMAN: Commissioner Tim Roemer said a good deal of information about Khalid sheik Mohammed was known months before the 9/11 attacks. Roemer asked the panel of FBI And CIA Witnesses how that information was shared.<br /><br />TIMOTHY ROEMER: According to the staff report .KSM was widely known to be planning some kind of an operation against the United States. The staff statement says, quote, many were even aware that he had been preparing operatives to go to the United States as reported by a CIA source in June of 2001. What did the CIA specifically do with that type of threat coming in from KSM, who is at the top of the rendition list, who is widely known to have associated with these terrorists and been involved in different activities, and he's sending people to the United States to do an operation. How would you prioritize that? What happened to this? <br /><br />=======================================================<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Be that as it may, the bottom line is this. US is plying Pakistan with Billions which it uses against India. And Timothy Roeman is urging India to pay Billions to the US for its planes, arms, nuclear plants. <br /><br />To rub salt to wound, he was part of 9/11 commission that gave a clean chit to Pakistan and ISI. And also ensured US agent David Coleman Headley remains out of harm's way (de-facto Pakistan too remains out of harm's way).</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-55869443900065093512010-09-17T01:37:00.000-07:002010-09-17T03:15:13.812-07:00INDIA - VISION 2020<span style="font-weight:bold;">2020 - status quo scenario</span><br /><br />Pakistan’s population has grown to <span style="font-weight:bold;">220 million in 2020</span>, 80% of children coming out from madrassas spewing venom on US, Israel and India. Poverty, climate change and militancy have taken firm grip with the military ruling either directly or indirectly.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Gilgit and northern areas have become a district in Pakistan and China military presence is fixed. Gwadar port has become a Chinese Navy docking point.</span><br /><br />With above, <span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan will with impunity engage in terrorism inside India knowing fully well that India has been finally surrounded by Chinese forces</span> and will not be able to do much. And Pakistan will up the ante across the length and breadth of India,<span style="font-weight:bold;"> bleeding the economic progress and reducing the Indian elephant into a cancerous carcass exacerbated by incompetent, pliant and corrupt politicians too busy to look at the large picture.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">If the above scenario is not acceptable to us, then one has to act today – so that in future our children have a better and safer India to live in.<br /><br />2020 - the way forward</span><br /><br />Today, <span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan is not a country but a piece of land ruled by the military</span>. PERIOD !<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">While India looks at cracks in Pakistan based on religious divisions (sunni, ahmediya, shia etc) or entho-linguistic division (Sindhi, Punjabi, Balochi, Pushtun) – it has overlooked a major crack inside Pakistan that can be exploited. India has been trying to weakly exploit the ethno-liguistic divisions in Pakistan but different PMs and Home Ministers of India have had differences of opinion on the policy driven by what they deemed “we can live in peaceful co-existence”. How do you live in peace when the vast majority of Pakistani population is fed a daily diet of hatred -which enslaves people to this ideology which is then exploited by the army through its various arms including terrorist groups under its wings?</span><br /><br />Hence, Paksitan is a bane to the civilized world as it exists today. The people of Pakistan are like any other people around the world – if they are well educated, well rounded individuals. <span style="font-weight:bold;">But Pakistan today, is a basket case of terrorism, spewing cheap foot soldiers dreaming of creating Khorasan and starting wars over the world through Ghazwatul Hind.<br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2009/04/pakistan-army-taliban-are-intertwined.html">Read Ghazwatul Hind before proceeding further by clicking on the link</a>.</span><br /><br />The biggest crack Pakistan has is <span style="font-weight:bold;">Gini co-efficient</span>. The mix of wealth and the organized poverty it is leading to. More poverty = more terrorist foot soldiers. Wealth and land is in the hands of <span style="font-weight:bold;">1000 or so feudal lords and their extended family. </span>Such is their clout that they are the politicians, the judges, the senior bureaucrats. Justice system for the poor simply do not exist and this alienation too is exploited by the terrorists.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Gini Co-efficient:</span><br /><br />A Gini Coefficient of 0 would indicate equal income for all earners. A Gini Coefficient of 1 would mean that one person had all the income and nobody else had any. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Thus, a lower Gini Coefficient indicates more equitable distribution of wealth in a society, while higher a Gini Coefficient means that wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people</span>. Sometimes, the Gini Coefficient is multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100 ('Gini Index').<br /><br />According to a US State Department report, released in 2006, <span style="font-weight:bold;">the Gini Coefficient for Pakistan is 68.0</span> Such high rates are deemed good for revolutions. <br /><br />The single most devastating factor for increased income and wealth inequalities in Pakistan remains <span style="font-weight:bold;">the regressive tax system</span>. Incidence of tax on the poor in the last 10 years has increased substantially (by about 35 per cent), while the rich are paying almost no direct tax on their colossal income and wealth. A study conducted by the Centre for Research on Poverty and Income Distribution (CRPID), <span style="font-weight:bold;">63 per cent of poor in Pakistan fall in the category of 'transitory poor'. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also admitted in its annual reports that the standard definition of 'transitory poor' includes those households that are below the poverty line for most of the time, but not always, during a defined period.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The remaining 32 per cent and five per cent of the population that subsist below the poverty line are 'chronic' and 'extremely poor', respectively. 'Chronic' and 'extremely' poor are those households that are below the poverty line all the time during a defined period. Similarly, on the other side, 13 per cent and 21 per cent of total non-poor (above the poverty line) are classified as 'transitory vulnerable' and 'transitory non-poor', respectively.</span><br /><br />This portrays an <span style="font-weight:bold;">alarming situation</span>, as more and more people are moving from the 'transitory' category to the 'chronic category', courtesy inequitable distribution of income and wealth, monopoly over assets and regressive tax policies.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Ayman Al Zawahari</span> is not wrong when he calls on the poor of Pakistan<a href="http://www.metro.co.uk/news/841056-al-quaeda-urges-revolution-over-pakistan-flood-chaos"> to start the revolution against this feudal class</a>. They have done precious little during the floods, and most likely siphoned off millions of aid dollars into their overseas slush funds. It is strange how the short term goals of Indian intelligence and Al-Qaeda are similar – mainly overthrow of Pakistan Army and its feudal class. <span style="font-weight:bold;">That is where our goals merge and end.</span><br /><br />India has spectacularly failed to rally these poor peasants into an insurgency group tackling the rich feudal lords. Islam does not lend itself to Maoist philosophy, however right against wrong through Quran was not exploited. India has seen Maoist insurgencies in swathes of land where this income distribution is at its worst.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br /><a href="http://www.left.ru/inter/july/rahman.html">Click to read leftist view emanating from within Pakistan</a></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">That being said, it is a question of liquidating 1000+ soft targets in Pakistan to bring about social anarchy – much to the glee of Al-Qaeda. Let super powers fret whether Al-Qaeda will be able to exploit this and get their hands on nukes. India should not be worried about this</span>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Shaking the ground below the US / EU:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">As long as the situation remains under the control of Pakistan Army, no Western nation will come to India’s aid to the rot it faces on its western border. Only if the situation appears to slip from the grasp of Pakistan Army will these countries wake up and dust off contingency plans that were prepared a while back. It is India’s duty to bring in social anarchy inside Pakistan without a single missile being fired from this side and to let the West sweat as Pakistan Army loses grip over Pakistan.</span><br /><br />The flood would have shown Indian military planners the devastation it can cause to 1/5 of land mass of Pakistan. It knows what non-military vice grip it can hold over Pakistan. T<span style="font-weight:bold;">ime to open the tap towards social anarchy and leading to liquidation to over 1000+ feudal landlords to be blamed on rising peasant resentment and exploitation.</span><br /><br />At the same time, India knows if there is Mumbai 2 – it will have to act, notwithstanding <a href="http://www.indianexpress.com/news/mumbai-ii-could-lead-to-a-full-blown-indopak-war/680358/">Peter Bergen’s version</a>.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> But then India will be acting on Pakistan’s time (or even on US time – David Headley was an US asset) </span>. India knows Mumbai 2 will happen – is waiting to happen.<br /><br />Question is - Do we let another Mumbai 2 happen – assuming the best vigilance can stop 96 out of 100 attempts ( a fairy tale – but even assume this to be true) – 4 will never be detected. But do we wait for this to happen on their time when they are ready?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Integration of PoK:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Or dare I write here, we make Mumbai 2 happen on our time, on our terms. Its so easy to run an operation inside Pakistan against India through contacts inside Afghanistan. Any of the groups will be eager for shahadat. I am willing to extend here and hope that the next Mumbai 2 be known to us – so that we act and achieve a goal. The goal is not to eliminate terrorist camps – but to take over PoK and integrate it with India.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Chinese interest:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">However, we must let Chinese interest remain – let the Karakoram highway be there and allow movement of oil & gas into China. The leverage of the road opening will be directly linked to Chinese behaviour on our border. If the Chinese are quiet, the road remains open. But the road will not allow Chinese arms to come to Pakistan – that is clear. It’s a one way energy corridor for China, be it oil or gas grid. But it will pass through Indian Kashmir – and yes token transit costs that can be swapped with Indian tourists going to Kailash Mansarovar.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Iran & Gilgit:</span><br /><br />Iran will not have forgotten the brutality with which Pakistan, then under Pervez Musharraf joined hands with Osama bin Laden to kill local Shias of Gilgit and bring in hordes of Sunnis to settle down to have a better ratio skewed towards to Sunnis. I<span style="font-weight:bold;">ndia on liberating, PoK must ensure that these Punjabi Sunnis return to their lands in Pakistan and India allows opening of a consular office of Iran in Gilgit. We must return the Zahedan favour.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">In one shot, India will have locked China & Pakistan in a game that will be based on equality and based on mutual respect. Paksitan will greatly feel the pinch of all water originating regions falling into India – the Indus water treaty notwithstanding. Climate change can be blamed for man-made disasters too – to keep Pakistan guessing.<br /><br />If we are able to pull this off, 2020 will see a better neighbourhood that is based on hard geopolitics and leverages.</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-21016393451488943922010-09-10T01:40:00.001-07:002010-09-10T01:41:52.961-07:00CHINESE SOLDIERS IN PAKISTAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR<iframe frameborder='0' scrolling='no' align='middle' SRC='http://mediasuite.multicastmedia.com/player.php?v=pju2073x' height='386' width='640' allowtransparency='true'></iframe>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com51tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-39897744120238978582010-09-01T01:10:00.000-07:002010-09-01T01:56:21.158-07:00CHINA - HOW TO DEAL WITH IT - PART 1<span style="font-weight:bold;">The Chinese because of their short stature and shorter eyes always suffered an inferiority complex when standing in front of burly Americans or Pathans or even Punjabi officers from India. That is why they will go to any lengths to get a chair to make their short men be equal to their Indian counterpart while taking pictures. The Chinese men are rumored to have one of the shortest ***** and this makes them a centre of ridicule in campuses around the world - which they counter by showing skills in martial arts - but then most Chinese students are not good at it. On a macro level, this complex together with xenophobia makes the Chinese very nervous to the aims of its adversaries. It reacts by probing the relative strength and probes more if the country is silent. It encircles, plies the enemies of its adversaries with arms and ammunition, builds large buildings on loans from unstable banks creating a property bubble, and large ships to showcase its might in S China seas and later on in Indian ocean. Its navy is nothing compared to even the Japanese navy today, it will take China 10 more years to be a blue water navy. The recent positioning of 11,000 troops in Gilgit, if true, is manifestation of their desire to protect its core interest - and an inability from India to do anything about it. Karakoram highway is lifeblood of southwest China to warm waters of Gwadar. Pakistan wants it to integrate this region directly into Pakistan. Musharraf together with Osama bin Laden crushed the Shias of Gilgit Baltistan when he was in charge of the region by using militants belonging to Sunni - wahabbi doctrine.The routine incursions into India is the same tactics China has used for centuries - to poke and see, and poke some more and if required go in for a short swift localized war to psychologically humiliate a country.</span><br /><br />However, what India should and can do will be explored in Part 2. Here in Part 1 - it is important to understand China. This article by <span style="font-weight:bold;">Stratfor</span> captures it best. Please read it carefully.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/118032/analysis/geopolitics_china">THE STRATFOR ARTICLE</a></span>:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Contemporary China is an island</span>. Although it is not surrounded by water (which borders only its eastern flank), China is bordered by terrain that is difficult to traverse in virtually any direction. There are some areas that can be traversed, but to understand China we must begin by visualizing the mountains, jungles and wastelands that enclose it. This outer shell both contains and protects China.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4N8nDxnoI/AAAAAAAABB0/3-meAgqWIec/s1600/china+-+island.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4N8nDxnoI/AAAAAAAABB0/3-meAgqWIec/s400/china+-+island.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511858328876195458" /></a><br /><br />Internally, China must be divided into two parts: the Chinese heartland and the non-Chinese buffer regions surrounding it. There is a line in China called the <span style="font-weight:bold;">15-inch isohyet</span>, east of which more than 15 inches of rain fall each year and west of which the annual rainfall is less. The vast majority of Chinese live east and south of this line, in the region known as Han China — the Chinese heartland. The region is home to the ethnic Han, whom the world regards as the Chinese. It is important to understand that more than a billion people live in this area, which is about half the size of the United States.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4OLHJADgI/AAAAAAAABB8/UeJXM6PF-wc/s1600/china+-+provinces.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 283px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4OLHJADgI/AAAAAAAABB8/UeJXM6PF-wc/s400/china+-+provinces.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511858578006216194" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PMMaDrrI/AAAAAAAABCM/3bjaMV9-iCw/s1600/china+-+terrain.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PMMaDrrI/AAAAAAAABCM/3bjaMV9-iCw/s400/china+-+terrain.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511859696111431346" /></a><br /><br />The Chinese heartland is divided into two parts, northern and southern, which in turn is represented by <span style="font-weight:bold;">two main dialects, Mandarin in the north and Cantonese in the south</span>. These dialects share a writing system but are almost mutually incomprehensible when spoken. The Chinese heartland is<span style="font-weight:bold;"> defined by two major rivers — the Yellow River in the north and the Yangtze in the South, along with a third lesser river in the south, the Pearl.</span> The heartland is China’s agricultural region. However — and this is the single most important fact about China — it has about one-third the arable land per person as the rest of the world. This pressure has defined modern Chinese history — both in terms of living with it and trying to move beyond it.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PZbeX7OI/AAAAAAAABCU/1iwV400XdKs/s1600/china-dialects.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PZbeX7OI/AAAAAAAABCU/1iwV400XdKs/s400/china-dialects.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511859923494366434" /></a><br /><br />A ring of non-Han regions surround this heartland — Tibet, Xinjiang province (home of the Muslim Uighurs), Inner Mongolia and Manchuria (a historical name given to the region north of North Korea that now consists of the Chinese provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">These are the buffer regions that historically have been under Chinese rule when China was strong and have broken away when China was weak. Today, there is a great deal of Han settlement in these regions, a cause of friction, but today Han China is strong.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PmuRIbCI/AAAAAAAABCc/rZNstWG43xc/s1600/china-pop+density.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TH4PmuRIbCI/AAAAAAAABCc/rZNstWG43xc/s400/china-pop+density.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5511860151877397538" /></a><br /><br />These are also the regions where the historical threat to China originated. Han China is a region full of rivers and rain.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> It is therefore a land of farmers and merchants. The surrounding areas are the land of nomads and horsemen.</span> In the 13th century, the Mongols under <span style="font-weight:bold;">Ghenghis Khan invaded and occupied parts of Han China until the 15th century, when the Han reasserted their authority. Following this period, Chinese strategy remained constant: the slow and systematic assertion of control over these outer regions in order to protect the Han from incursions by nomadic cavalry.</span> This imperative drove Chinese foreign policy. In spite of the imbalance of population, or perhaps because of it, <span style="font-weight:bold;">China saw itself as extremely vulnerable to military forces moving from the north and west. Defending a massed population of farmers against these forces was difficult. The easiest solution, the one the Chinese chose, was to reverse the order and impose themselves on their potential conquerors.</span><br /><br />There was another reason. Aside from providing buffers, these possessions provided defensible borders. With borderlands under their control, China was strongly anchored. Let’s consider the nature of China’s border sequentially, <span style="font-weight:bold;">starting in the east along the southern border with Vietnam and Myanmar.</span> The border with Vietnam is the only border readily traversable by large armies or mass commerce. <span style="font-weight:bold;">In fact, as recently as 1979, China and Vietnam fought a short border war, and there have been points in history when China has dominated Vietnam. However, the rest of the southern border where Yunnan province meets Laos and Myanmar is hilly jungle, difficult to traverse, with almost no major roads. Significant movement across this border is almost impossible. During World War II, the United States struggled to build the Burma Road to reach Yunnan and supply Chiang Kai-shek’s forces. The effort was so difficult it became legendary. China is SECURE in this region.</span><br /><br />Hkakabo Razi, almost 19,000 feet high, marks the border<span style="font-weight:bold;"> between China, Myanmar and India</span>. At this point, China’s southwestern frontier begins, anchored in the Himalayas.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> More precisely, it is where Tibet, controlled by China, borders India and the two Himalayan states, Nepal and Bhutan. This border runs in a long arc past Pakistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, ending at Pik Pobedy, a 25,000-foot mountain marking the border with China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. It is possible to pass through this border region with difficulty; historically, parts of it have been accessible as a merchant route. On the whole, however, the Himalayas are a barrier to substantial trade and certainly to military forces. India and China — and China and much of Central Asia — are sealed off from each other.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The one EXCEPTION is the next section of the border, with Kazakhstan.</span> This area is passable but has relatively little transport. As the transport expands, this will be the main route between China and the rest of Eurasia. <span style="font-weight:bold;">It is the one land bridge from the Chinese island that can be used. The problem is distance.</span> The border with Kazakhstan is almost a thousand miles from the first tier of Han Chinese provinces, and the route passes through sparsely populated Muslim territory, a region that has posed significant challenges to China.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Importantly, the Silk Road from China ran through Xinjiang and Kazakhstan on its way west. It was the only way to go.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">There is, finally, the long northern border first with Mongolia and then with Russia, running to the Pacific. This border is certainly passable. Indeed, the only successful invasion of China took place when Mongol horsemen attacked from Mongolia, occupying a good deal of Han China. China’s buffers — Inner Mongolia and Manchuria — have protected Han China from other attacks.</span> The Chinese have not attacked northward for two reasons. First, there has historically not been much there worth taking. Second, north-south access is difficult. Russia has two rail lines running from the west to the Pacific —<span style="font-weight:bold;"> the famous Trans-Siberian Railroad (TSR) and the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), which connects those two cities and ties into the TSR.</span> Aside from that, there is no east-west ground transportation linking Russia. There is also no north-south transportation. <span style="font-weight:bold;">What appears accessible really is not.<br /></span><br />The area in Russia that is most accessible from China is the region bordering the Pacific, the area<span style="font-weight:bold;"> from Russia’s Vladivostok to Blagoveschensk.</span> This region has reasonable transport, population and advantages for both sides. <span style="font-weight:bold;">If there were ever a conflict between China and Russia, this is the area that would be at the center of it. It is also the area, as you move southward and away from the Pacific, that borders on the Korean Peninsula, the area of China’s last major military conflict.</span><br /><br />Then there is the Pacific coast, which has numerous harbors and has historically had substantial coastal trade. <span style="font-weight:bold;">It is interesting to note that, apart from the attempt by the Mongols to invade Japan, and a single major maritime thrust by China into the Indian Ocean — primarily for trade and abandoned fairly quickly — China has never been a maritime power. Prior to the 19th century, it had not faced enemies capable of posing a naval threat and, as a result, it had little interest in spending large sums of money on building a navy.</span><br /><br />China, when it controls Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria, is an insulated state. Han China has only one point of potential friction, in the southeast with Vietnam. Other than that it is surrounded by non-Han buffer regions that it has politically integrated into China. <span style="font-weight:bold;">There is a second friction point in eastern Manchuria, touching on Siberia and Korea. There is, finally, a single opening into the rest of Eurasia on the Xinjiang-Kazakh border.</span><br /><br />China’s most vulnerable point, since the arrival of Europeans in the western Pacific in the mid-19th century, has been its coast. Apart from European encroachments in which commercial interests were backed up by limited force,<span style="font-weight:bold;"> China suffered its most significant military encounter — and long and miserable war — after the Japanese invaded and occupied large parts of eastern China along with Manchuria in the 1930s. Despite the mismatch in military power and more than a dozen years of war, Japan still could not force the Chinese government to capitulate. </span>The simple fact was that Han China, given its size and population density, could not be subdued. No matter how many victories the Japanese won, they could not decisively defeat the Chinese.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">China is hard to invade; given its size and population, it is even harder to occupy. This also makes it hard for the Chinese to invade others — not utterly impossible, but quite difficult.</span> Containing a fifth of the world’s population, China can wall itself off from the world, as it did prior to the United Kingdom’s forced entry in the 19th century and as it did under Mao Zedong. <span style="font-weight:bold;">All of this means China is a great power, but one that has to behave very differently from other great powers.</span><br /><br />China’s Geopolitical Imperatives<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">China has three overriding geopolitical imperatives:<br /><br />1. Maintain internal unity in the Han Chinese regions.<br />2. Maintain control of the buffer regions.<br />3. Protect the coast from foreign encroachment.<br />Maintaining Internal Unity</span><br /><br />China is more enclosed than any other great power. The size of its population, coupled with its secure frontiers and relative abundance of resources, <span style="font-weight:bold;">allows it to develop with minimal intercourse with the rest of the world, if it chooses</span>. During the Maoist period, for example, China became an insular nation, driven primarily by internal interests and considerations, indifferent or hostile to the rest of the world. It was secure and, except for its involvement in the Korean War and its efforts to pacify restless buffer regions, was relatively peaceful. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Internally, however, China underwent periodic, self-generated chaos.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The weakness of insularity for China is poverty.</span> Given the ratio of arable land to population, a self-enclosed China is a poor China. Its population is so poor that economic development driven by domestic demand, no matter how limited it might be, is impossible. However, an isolated China is easier to manage by a central government. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The great danger in China is a rupture within the Han Chinese nation. If that happens, if the central government weakens, the peripheral regions will spin off, and China will then be vulnerable to foreigners taking advantage of Chinese weakness.</span><br /><br />For China to prosper, it has to engage in trade, exporting silk, silver and industrial products. Historically, land trade has not posed a problem for China. The Silk Road allowed foreign influences to come into China and the resulting wealth created a degree of instability. On the whole, however, it could be managed.<br /><br />The dynamic of industrialism changed both the geography of Chinese trade and its consequences. In the mid-19th century, when Europe — led by the British —compelled the Chinese government to give trading concessions to the British, it opened a new chapter in Chinese history. For the first time, the Pacific coast was the interface with the world, not Central Asia. <span style="font-weight:bold;">This in turn massively destabilized China.</span><br /><br />As trade between China and the world intensified, the Chinese who were engaged in trading increased their wealth dramatically. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Those in the coastal provinces of China, the region most deeply involved in trading, became relatively wealthy while the Chinese in the interior (not the buffer regions, which were always poor, but the non-coastal provinces of Han China) remained poor, subsistence farmers.</span><br /><br />The central government was balanced between the divergent interests of coastal China and the interior. The coastal region, particularly its newly enriched leadership, had an interest in maintaining and intensifying relations with European powers and with the United States and Japan. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The more intense the trade, the wealthier the coastal leadership and the greater the disparity between the regions. In due course, foreigners allied with Chinese coastal merchants and politicians became more powerful in the coastal regions than the central government. The worst geopolitical nightmare of China came true. China fragmented, breaking into regions, some increasingly under the control of foreigners, particularly foreign commercial interests. Beijing lost control over the country. It should be noted that this was the context in which Japan invaded China, which made Japan’s failure to defeat China all the more extraordinary.</span><br /><br />Mao’s goal was threefold, Marxism aside. <span style="font-weight:bold;">FIRST, he wanted to recentralize China — re-establishing Beijing as China’s capital and political center. SECOND, he wanted to end the massive inequality between the coastal region and the rest of China. THIRD, he wanted to expel the foreigners from China. In short, he wanted to recreate a united Han China.</span><br /><br />Mao first attempted to trigger an uprising in the cities in 1927 but failed because the coalition of Chinese interests and foreign powers was impossible to break. Instead he took the Long March to the interior of China, where he raised a massive peasant army that was both nationalist and egalitarian and, in 1948, returned to the coastal region and expelled the foreigners. Mao re-enclosed China, recentralized it, and accepted the inevitable result. China became equal but extraordinarily poor.<br /><br />China’s primary geopolitical issue is this:<span style="font-weight:bold;"> For it to develop it must engage in international trade. If it does that, it must use its coastal cities as an interface with the world. When that happens, the coastal cities and the surrounding region become increasingly wealthy. The influence of foreigners over this region increases and the interests of foreigners and the coastal Chinese converge and begin competing with the interests of the central government. China is constantly challenged by the problem of how to avoid this outcome while engaging in international trade.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Controlling the Buffer Regions</span><br /><br />Prior to Mao’s rise, with the central government weakened and Han China engaged simultaneously in war with Japan, civil war and regionalism, the center was not holding. While Manchuria was under Chinese control, Outer Mongolia was under Soviet control and extending its influence (Soviet power more than Marxist ideology) into Inner Mongolia, and Tibet and Xinjiang were drifting away.<br /><br />At the same time that Mao was fighting the civil war, he was also laying the groundwork for taking control of the buffer regions. Interestingly, his first moves were designed to block Soviet interests in these regions. Mao moved to consolidate Chinese communist control over Manchuria and Inner Mongolia, effectively leveraging the Soviets out. Xinjiang had been under the control of a regional warlord, Yang Zengxin. Shortly after the end of the civil war, Mao moved to force him out and take over Xinjiang. Finally, in 1950 Mao moved against Tibet, which he secured in 1951.<br /><br />The rapid-fire consolidation of the buffer regions gave Mao what all Chinese emperors sought, a China secure from invasion. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Controlling Tibet meant that India could not move across the Himalayas and establish a secure base of operations on the Tibetan Plateau. There could be skirmishes in the Himalayas, but no one could push a multidivisional force across those mountains and keep it supplied. So long as Tibet was in Chinese hands, the Indians could live on the other side of the moon. </span>Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria buffered China from the Soviet Union. Mao was more of a geopolitician than an ideologue. He did not trust the Soviets. With the buffer states in hand, they would not invade China. The distances, the poor transportation and the lack of resources meant that any Soviet invasion would run into massive logistical problems well before it reached Han China’s populated regions, and become bogged down — just as the Japanese had.<br /><br />China had geopolitical issues with Vietnam, Pakistan and Afghanistan, neighboring states with which it shared a border, but the real problem for China would come in Manchuria or, more precisely, Korea. The Soviets, more than the Chinese, had encouraged a North Korean invasion of South Korea. It is difficult to speculate on Joseph Stalin’s thinking, but it worked out superbly for him. The United States intervened, defeated the North Korean Army and drove to the Yalu, the river border with China. The Chinese, seeing the well-armed and well-trained American force surge to its borders, decided that it had to block its advance and attacked south. What resulted was three years of brutal warfare in which the Chinese lost about a million men. From the Soviet point of view, fighting between China and the United States was the best thing imaginable. It demonstrated was the sensitivity of the Chinese to any encroachment on their borderlands, their buffers, which represent the foundation of their national security.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Protecting the Coast</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">With the buffer regions under control, the coast is China’s most vulnerable point, but its vulnerability is not to invasion. Given the Japanese example, no one has the interest or forces to try to invade mainland China, supply an army there and hope to win. Invasion is not a meaningful threat.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The coastal threat to China is economic, though most would not call it a threat. As we saw, the British intrusion into China culminated in the destabilization of the country, the virtual collapse of the central government and civil war. It was all caused by prosperity. Mao had solved the problem by sealing the coast of China off to any real development and liquidating the class that had collaborated with foreign business. For Mao, xenophobia was integral to national policy. He saw foreign presence as undermining the stability of China. He preferred impoverished unity to chaos. He also understood that, given China’s population and geography, it could defend itself against potential attackers without an advanced military-industrial complex.</span><br /><br />His successor, Deng Xiaoping, was heir to a powerful state in control of China and the buffer regions. He also felt under tremendous pressure politically to improve living standards, and he undoubtedly understood that technological gaps would eventually threaten Chinese national security. He took a historic gamble. He knew that China’s economy could not develop on its own. China’s internal demand for goods was too weak because the Chinese were too poor.<br /><br />Deng gambled that he could open China to foreign investment and reorient the Chinese economy away from agriculture and heavy industry and toward export-oriented industries. By doing so he would increase living standards, import technology and train China’s workforce.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> He was betting that the effort this time would not destabilize China, create massive tensions between the prosperous coastal provinces and the interior, foster regionalism, or put the coastal regions under foreign control. Deng believed he could avoid all that by maintaining a strong central government, based on a loyal army and Communist Party apparatus. His successors have struggled to maintain that loyalty to the state and not to foreign investors, who can make individuals wealthy. That is the bet that is currently being played out.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">China’s Geopolitics and its Current Position</span><br /><br />From a political and military standpoint, China has achieved its strategic goals. The buffer regions are intact and China faces no threat in Eurasia. It sees a Western attempt to force China out of Tibet as an attempt to undermine Chinese national security. <span style="font-weight:bold;">For China, however, Tibet is a minor irritant; China has no possible intention of leaving Tibet, the Tibetans cannot rise up and win, and no one is about to invade the region. Similarly, the Uighur Muslims represent an irritant in Xinjiang and not a direct threat. The Russians have no interest in or capability of invading China, and the Korean Peninsula does not represent a direct threat to the Chinese, certainly not one they could not handle.<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The greatest military threat to China comes from the United States Navy.</span> The Chinese have become highly dependent on seaborne trade and the United States Navy is in a position to blockade China’s ports if it wished. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Should the United States do that, it would cripple China. Therefore, China’s primary military interest is to make such a blockade impossible.</span><br /><br />It would take several generations for China to build a surface navy able to compete with the U.S. Navy. Simply training naval aviators to conduct carrier-based operations effectively would take decades — at least until these trainees became admirals and captains. And this does not take into account the time it would take to build an aircraft carrier and carrier-capable aircraft and master the intricacies of carrier operations.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">For China, the primary mission is to raise the price of a blockade so high that the Americans would not attempt it. The means for that would be land- and submarine-based anti-ship missiles. The strategic solution is for China to construct a missile force sufficiently dispersed that it cannot be suppressed by the United States and with sufficient range to engage the United States at substantial distance, as far as the central Pacific.</span><br /><br />This missile force would have to be able to identify and track potential targets to be effective. Therefore, if the Chinese are to pursue this strategy, <span style="font-weight:bold;">they must also develop a space-based maritime reconnaissance system. These are the technologies the Chinese are focusing on. Anti-ship missiles and space-based systems, including anti-satellite systems designed to blind the Americans, represent China’s military counter to its only significant military threat.</span><br /><br />China could also use those missiles to blockade Taiwan by interdicting ships going to and from the island. <span style="font-weight:bold;">But the Chinese do not have the naval ability to land a sufficient amphibious force and sustain it in ground combat. Nor do they have the ability to establish air superiority over the Taiwan Strait. China might be able to harass Taiwan but it will not invade it. Missiles, satellites and submarines constitute China’s naval strategy.</span><br /><br />For China, the primary problem posed by Taiwan is naval. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Taiwan is positioned in such a way that it can readily serve as an air and naval base that could isolate maritime movement between the South China Sea and the East China Sea, effectively leaving the northern Chinese coast and Shanghai isolated. When you consider the Ryukyu Islands that stretch from Taiwan to Japan and add them to this mix, a non-naval power could blockade the northern Chinese coast if it held Taiwan</span>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Taiwan would not be important to China unless it became actively hostile or allied with or occupied by a hostile power such as the United States. If that happened, its geographical position would pose an extremely serious problem for China. </span>Taiwan is also an important symbolic issue to China and a way to rally nationalism. Although Taiwan presents no immediate threat, it does pose potential dangers that China cannot ignore.<br /><br />There is one area in which China is being modestly expansionist — Central Asia and particularly Kazakhstan. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Traditionally a route for trading silk, Kazakhstan is now an area that can produce energy, badly needed by China’s industry.</span> The Chinese have been active in developing commercial relations with Kazakhstan and in developing roads into Kazakhstan. These roads are opening a trading route that allows oil to flow in one direction and industrial goods in another.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">In doing this, the Chinese are challenging Russia’s sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. The Russians have been prepared to tolerate increased Chinese economic activity in the region while being wary of China’s turning into a political power.</span> Kazakhstan has been European Russia’s historical buffer state against Chinese expansion and it has been under Russian domination. This region must be watched carefully. <span style="font-weight:bold;">If Russia begins to feel that China is becoming too assertive in this region, it could respond militarily to Chinese economic power.</span><br /><br />Chinese-Russian relations have historically been complex. Before World War II, the Soviets attempted to manipulate Chinese politics. After World War II, relations between the Soviet Union and China were never as good as some thought, and sometimes these relations became directly hostile, as in <span style="font-weight:bold;">1968, when Russian and Chinese troops fought a battle along the Ussuri River. </span>The Russians have historically feared a Chinese move into their Pacific maritime provinces. The Chinese have feared a Russian move into Manchuria and beyond.<br /><br />Neither of these things happened because the logistical challenges involved were enormous and neither had an appetite for the risk of fighting the other. We would think that this caution will prevail under current circumstances. However, growing Chinese influence in Kazakhstan is not a minor matter for the Russians, who may choose to contest China there. If they do, and it becomes a serious matter, the secondary pressure point for both sides would be in the Pacific region, complicated by proximity to Korea.<br /><br />But these are only theoretical possibilities.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> The threat of an American blockade on China’s coast, of using Taiwan to isolate northern China, of conflict over Kazakhstan — all are possibilities that the Chinese must take into account as they plan for the worst. In fact, the United States does not have an interest in blockading China and the Chinese and Russians are not going to escalate competition over Kazakhstan.</span><br /><br />China does not have a military-based geopolitical problem. It is in its traditional strong position, physically secure as it holds its buffer regions. It has achieved it three strategic imperatives. What is most vulnerable at this point is its first imperative: the unity of Han China. That is not threatened militarily. Rather, the threat to it is economic.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Economic Dimensions of Chinese Geopolitics</span><br /><br />The problem of China, rooted in geopolitics, is economic and it presents itself in two ways. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The first is simple</span>. China has an export-oriented economy. It is in a position of dependency. No matter how large its currency reserves or how advanced its technology or how cheap its labor force, China depends on the willingness and ability of other countries to import its goods — as well as the ability to physically ship them. Any disruption of this flow has a direct effect on the Chinese economy.<br /><br />The primary reason other countries buy Chinese goods is price. They are cheaper because of wage differentials. Should China lose that advantage to other nations or for other reasons, its ability to export would decline. Today, for example, as energy prices rise, the cost of production rises and the relative importance of the wage differential decreases. At a certain point, as China’s trading partners see it, the value of Chinese imports relative to the political cost of closing down their factories will shift.<br /><br />And all of this is outside of China’s control. China cannot control the world price of oil. It can cut into its cash reserves to subsidize those prices for manufacturers but that would essentially be transferring money back to consuming nations. It can control rising wages by imposing price controls, but that would cause internal instability. The center of gravity of China is that it has become the industrial workshop of the world and, as such, it is totally dependent on the world to keep buying its goods rather than someone else’s goods.<br /><br />There are other issues for China, ranging from a dysfunctional financial system to farmland being taken out of production for factories. These are all significant and add to the story. But in geopolitics we look for the center of gravity, and for China the center of gravity is that the more effective it becomes at exporting, the more of a hostage it becomes to its customers. Some observers have warned that China might take its money out of American banks. Unlikely, but assume it did. <span style="font-weight:bold;">What would China do without the United States as a customer?</span><br /><br />China has placed itself in a position where it has to keep its customers happy. It struggles against this reality daily, but the fact is that the rest of the world is far less dependent on China’s exports than China is dependent on the rest of the world.<br /><br />Which brings us to the second, even more serious part of China’s economic problem. The first geopolitical imperative of China is to ensure the unity of Han China. The third is to protect the coast. Deng’s bet was that he could open the coast without disrupting the unity of Han China. As in the 19th century, the coastal region has become wealthy. The interior has remained extraordinarily poor. The coastal region is deeply enmeshed in the global economy. The interior is not. Beijing is once again balancing between the coast and the interior.<br /><br />The interests of the coastal region and the interests of importers and investors are closely tied to each other. Beijing’s interest is in maintaining internal stability. As pressures grow, it will seek to increase its control of the political and economic life of the coast. The interest of the interior is to have money transferred to it from the coast. The interest of the coast is to hold on to its money. Beijing will try to satisfy both, without letting China break apart and without resorting to Mao’s draconian measures. But the worse the international economic situation becomes the less demand there will be for Chinese products and the less room there will be for China to maneuver.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The second part of the problem derives from the first.</span> Assuming that the global economy does not decline now, it will at some point. When it does, and Chinese exports fall dramatically, Beijing will have to balance between an interior hungry for money and a coastal region that is hurting badly. It is important to remember that something like 900 million Chinese live in the interior while only about 400 million live in the coastal region. When it comes to balancing power, the interior is the physical threat to the regime while the coast destabilizes the distribution of wealth. The interior has mass on its side. The coast has the international trading system on its. Emperors have stumbled over less.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Conclusion<br /><br />Geopolitics is based on geography and politics. Politics is built on two foundations: military and economic. The two interact and support each other but are ultimately distinct. For China, securing its buffer regions generally eliminates military problems. What problems are left for China are long-term issues concerning northeastern Manchuria and the balance of power in the Pacific.<br /><br />China’s geopolitical problem is economic. Its first geopolitical imperative, maintain the unity of Han China, and its third, protect the coast, are both more deeply affected by economic considerations than military ones. Its internal and external political problems flow from economics. The dramatic economic development of the last generation has been ruthlessly geographic. This development has benefited the coast and left the interior — the vast majority of Chinese — behind. It has also left China vulnerable to global economic forces that it cannot control and cannot accommodate. This is not new in Chinese history, but its usual resolution is in regionalism and the weakening of the central government. Deng’s gamble is being played out by his successors. He dealt the hand. They have to play it.<br /><br />The question on the table is whether the economic basis of China is a foundation or a balancing act. If the former, it can last a long time. If the latter, everyone falls down eventually. There appears to be little evidence that it is a foundation. It excludes most of the Chinese from the game, people who are making less than $100 a month. That is a balancing act and it threatens the first geopolitical imperative of China: protecting the unity of the Han Chinese.<br /></span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-78472547621761234502010-07-28T21:48:00.000-07:002010-07-29T02:13:15.821-07:00PAKISTAN - STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISMCan someone define what makes a state get the tag "State Sponsor of Terrorism"?<br /><br />ISI, Pakistan's intelligence agency has been caught red handed with the following - these are documented evidence - some of which are publicly available in Wikileaks. Most of what has come out was already known to every Indian anyway.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">a) Funding 26/11 attacks in Mumbai - purchasing boats etc to carry out the attacks.<br /><br />b) Funding 1000 motorbikes to Haqqani group to carry out suicide attacks inside Afghanistan.<br /><br />c) Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) runs a training facility in Quetta, and train Pakistani activists from Jamyat-Ul-Talabah and Harakat Islami Kashmir as well as Chechens, Uzbeks, Afghans and Arabs.<br /><br />d) Pakistan Army SSG Commando - Ilyas Kashmiri goes underground and surfaces as Commando Head of Brigade 313 - the feared unit of Al -Qaeda.</span><br /><br />e) A <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4926401.ece">dead Taliban leader in Afghanistan was found to be a Pakistan Army Major </a>but this was covered up by Britain.<br /><br />It is a matter of time before people in West realize that Al-Qaeda mentorship passed from CIA to ISI and Osama bin Laden (if alive) is just a mere puppet in the hands of ISI. For plausible deniability ISI maintains its links to Al-Qaeda and Taliban thru divisions outside of official divisions.<br /><br />An interesting article in Indian Express: "<span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.indianexpress.com/news/cia-watched-isi-tap-phones-help-suicide-bombers/653285/0">CIA watched ISI tap phones, help suicide bombers</a></span>"<br /><br />The Article:<br />=======<br /><br />Washington's claim that it gave a heads-up to New Delhi on the leaked Af-Pak documents is loaded with irony. For, what these papers show is that Pakistani spy agency ISI supplied suicide bombers in Afghanistan with explosives-strapped motorcycles and listened in on telephone networks to supply them crucial information — all right under the nose of the US intelligence establishment.<br /><br />In a threat assessment report dated August 27, 2007, one of the many leaked by Wikileaks, the US intelligence establishment admits it has information that all calls made to the largest mobile phone company in Afghanistan, Roshan, are routed through Pakistan.<br /><br />With a non-existent landline network, most telephone users in Afghanistan — including coalition force members and foreign nationals — are dependent on this mobile network.<br /><br />“Reporting from February 2007 indicates Pakistani intelligence service (ISI) is currently collecting and databasing all Roshan calls and numbers from Afghanistan. Reportedly, when a Roshan user places a call to any number — either inside or outside Afghanistan — the call is re-routed through Pakistan,” the intelligence report says. <br /><br />However, no course of action was charted out even though the report went on to say that the ISI is known to share information with Taliban insurgents.<br /><br />“Elements of the ISI and insurgents have cooperated in the past and it is possible that intercepted cell photo data can be passed to insurgents on a regular basis,” the report says.<br /><br />While phone-tapping can yield information that can be used by insurgents, there is more evidence in the leaked documents that US was aware of ISI’s direct funding of Taliban insurgents and suicide bombers.<br /><br />In May 2007, another intelligence report on the activities and plans of the Haqqani network reveals that the US was aware of ISI’s funding of suicide bombers. “<span style="font-weight:bold;">On 25 April, 2007, ISI sent 1000 motorcycles to Mawlawi Jalaludin Haqqani for suicide attacks in Khowst and Lowgar Province</span>,” the report says.<br /><br />Yet another report dated March 2009 — just before Kabul saw stepped up violence — reveals that the US was aware that Pakistan had ordered Taliban fighters to intensify attacks in the Afghan capital.<br /><br />“Several Taliban commanders leading approximately 100 armed fighters, along with 15 Chechen, have entered Afghanistan, passing through Iran. <span style="font-weight:bold;">These have been appointed by Pakistan to conduct attacks</span>, including suicide attacks, in Kabul Province,” the threat report says.<br /><br />While former ISI chief Hamid Gul has denied that he was involved with the Taliban, US intelligence reports say he attended meetings with the top leadership of the terror organisation in 2006 and instructed them to target coalition soldiers and “make the snow warm in Kabul” with repeated attacks.<br /><br />A December 2006 report says that <span style="font-weight:bold;">Gul procured 50 mines for distribution to Taliban fighters for use against targets in Kabul.</span><br /><br />“<span style="font-weight:bold;">During this meeting, Gul claimed he dispatched three unidentified individuals to Kabul city to carry out IED attacks during the Eid celebration...reportedly Gul’s final comment to the three individuals was make the snow warm in Kabul, basically telling them to set Kabul aflame</span>,” the report notes.<br /><br />Another intelligence report reveals that <span style="font-weight:bold;">US is aware of an ISI- run training camp in Quetta that is training Taliban fighters.</span><br /><br />The report dated August 16, 2006, says that i<span style="font-weight:bold;">n a meeting in Quetta, which was attended by both Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden, instructions were given to six suicide bombers to target different parts of Afghanistan.</span><br /><br />“<span style="font-weight:bold;">Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) runs a training facility in Quetta, and train Pakistani activists from Jamyat-Ul-Talabah and Harakat Islami Kashmir as well as Chechens, Uzbeks, Afghans and Arabs</span>,” the report says.<br /><br />In a December 2007 intelligence report, inputs were received that the <span style="font-weight:bold;">ISI could possibly be using children to carry out suicide attacks in Kabul and Khost.</span><br /><br />“<span style="font-weight:bold;">Extremist leaders in Pakistan, in coordination with a Pakistani intelligence agent (ISI), allegedly planned to send three children to conduct suicide attacks in the Afghan cities of Kabul and Khost on or shortly after the Eid ul-Adha holiday on 20 December 2007</span>,” the threat report says.<br /><br />On Hamid Gul, the last report on his meetings with the Taliban leadership is in January 2009 where he is described as planning operations to get suicide bombers into Afghanistan.<br /><br />“<span style="font-weight:bold;">Hamid Gul encouraged the AAF (Anti Afghan Forces) leaders to focus their operation inside Afghanistan in exchange for the government of Pakistan’s security forces turning a blind eye to the presence of AAF commanders and fighters in Pakistan</span>,” the report says. <br /><br />========================<br /><br />In our penchant to blame ISI, we forget it actually reports to Pakistan Army and is headed by a 3 star general - which makes him obligtory to report to the 4 star general in Pakistan Army.<br /><br />Which means - everything ISI does, has the sanction of Pakistan Army.<br /><br />Which makes it a state policy of Pakistan.<br /><br />Hence Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">But hold your horses - that is not how the real world works. Pakistan Army General Kayani's term has been extended by an unprecedented 3 years. And this is ostensibly been done to please the US - as is winds down its operations in Afghanistan - it needs a General it can rely on.</span><br /><br />Hence Pakistan will never become a state sponsor of terror - cause USA will not allow it. USA has its own national interest for which it will do what it feels is right. Fine, but where does that leave India?<br /><br />India, if it thinks USA will help it against Pakistan, it won't beyond moral boosting words that gather sound bites and looks good in newspapers. Behind it all, USA is plying Pakistan with military hardware it knows will only be used against India. USA / UK will never allow INDIA to have a common border with IRAN. <br /><br />If India starts looking at its national interest only - US too will bend its knees instead of us always bending over backwards to accomodate the Anglo American empire !!BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-76971775469246013232010-07-05T23:33:00.000-07:002010-07-06T00:01:13.528-07:00I WAS IN S AFRICA FOR THE WORLD CUP - HENCE NO POSTSI was there for 10 days and caught the following matches:<br /><br />1) USA - ALGERIA<br />2) ITALY - SLOVAKIA<br />3) ARGENTINA - MEXICO<br />4) BRAZIL - CHILE<br /><br />It was a fascinating experience for me to mingle and meet with so many fans. Even had wonderful lunch at a Pakistani restaurant - Kashif's where the chef from Karachi himself prepared a meal for me. Good memories to bring back home. Blog after the World Cup gets over !<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLP6k19YPI/AAAAAAAABBE/iM5CROziIaQ/s1600/DSCN1642.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLP6k19YPI/AAAAAAAABBE/iM5CROziIaQ/s400/DSCN1642.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490679500947415282" /></a><br />THE GRAND OLD MAN<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLPj4B8qeI/AAAAAAAABA8/KXf2BtJK3BM/s1600/DSCN1589.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLPj4B8qeI/AAAAAAAABA8/KXf2BtJK3BM/s400/DSCN1589.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490679110960982498" /></a><br />THE KING<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLUitf4MqI/AAAAAAAABBc/mz7IJXMJXdk/s1600/brazil-chile+match+to+start.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLUitf4MqI/AAAAAAAABBc/mz7IJXMJXdk/s400/brazil-chile+match+to+start.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490684588511998626" /></a><br />BRAZIL CHILE MATCH ABOUT TO START<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLUPnA2UFI/AAAAAAAABBU/fZLwL8CrIVY/s1600/mexican+fans.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLUPnA2UFI/AAAAAAAABBU/fZLwL8CrIVY/s400/mexican+fans.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490684260353724498" /></a><br />THE MEXICAN FANS<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLTyCdiXWI/AAAAAAAABBM/n3MwruQNmRM/s1600/slovakian+fans.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLTyCdiXWI/AAAAAAAABBM/n3MwruQNmRM/s400/slovakian+fans.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490683752325733730" /></a><br />THE SLOVAKIAN FANS<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLPB723yfI/AAAAAAAABA0/ZrdByPJeZp0/s1600/DSCN1561.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLPB723yfI/AAAAAAAABA0/ZrdByPJeZp0/s400/DSCN1561.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490678527872715250" /></a><br />ITALY VS SLOVAKIA MATCH<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLOywWrtBI/AAAAAAAABAs/q1QFJCzDG-4/s1600/DSCN1558.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLOywWrtBI/AAAAAAAABAs/q1QFJCzDG-4/s400/DSCN1558.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490678267086877714" /></a><br />THE ITALIAN FAN<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLOkO054GI/AAAAAAAABAk/9ZVJmy1oqJY/s1600/DSCN1537.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TDLOkO054GI/AAAAAAAABAk/9ZVJmy1oqJY/s400/DSCN1537.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5490678017568661602" /></a><br />THE USA FANBENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-91933242427197121772010-06-16T03:29:00.000-07:002010-06-16T23:45:34.393-07:00FULL LSE REPORT: PAKISTAN'S ISI SUPPORT TO AFGHAN TALIBAN<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TBin8CyWT-I/AAAAAAAABAc/6I-yyiwrBQo/s1600/Crisis+state+ISI+.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 316px; height: 272px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TBin8CyWT-I/AAAAAAAABAc/6I-yyiwrBQo/s400/Crisis+state+ISI+.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5483317196305616866" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">THIS IS THE FULL, UNEDITED VERSION OF SEMINAL RESEARCH DONE BY MATT WALDMAN OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY FOR LSE. IT'S LONG BUT IF YOU WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE REGION AND ITS TREACHERY - READ THIS.</span><br /><br />Crisis States Research Centre <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Sun in the Sky: The relationship between Pakistan’s ISI and Afghan insurgents </span><br /> <br />Matt Waldman<br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Abstract</span> <br /> <br />Many accounts of the Afghan conflict misapprehend the nature of the relationship between Pakistan’s security services and the insurgency. The relationship, in fact, goes far beyond contact and coexistence, with some assistance provided by elements within, or linked to, Pakistan’s intelligence service (ISI) or military. <br /> <br />Although the Taliban has a strong endogenous impetus, according to Taliban commanders the ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences the movement. They say it gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and supplies. In their words, this is ‘as clear as the sun in the sky’. <br /> <br />Directly or indirectly the ISI appears to exert significant influence on the strategic decision- making and field operations of the Taliban; and has even greater sway over Haqqani insurgents. According to both Taliban and Haqqani commanders, it controls the most violent insurgent units, some of which appear to be based in Pakistan. <br /> <br />Insurgent commanders confirmed that the ISI are even represented, as participants or observers, on the Taliban supreme leadership council, known as the Quetta Shura, and the Haqqani command council. Indeed, the agency appears to have circumscribed the Taliban’s strategic autonomy, precluding steps towards talks with the Afghan government throughrecent arrests. <br /> <br />President Zardari himself has apparently assured captive, senior Taliban leaders that they are ‘our people’ and have his backing. He has also apparently authorised their release from prison. The ISI even arrested and then released two Taliban leaders, Qayyum Zakir, the movement’s new military commander, and Mullah Abdul Raouf Khadem, reportedly now head of the Quetta Shura, who are among the three or four highest ranking in the movement below Mullah Omar. <br /> <br />Pakistan’s apparent involvement in a double-game of this scale could have major geo- political implications and could even provoke US counter-measures. However, the powerful role of the ISI, and parts of the Pakistani military, suggests that progress against the Afghan insurgency, or towards political engagement, requires their support. The only sure way to secure such cooperation is to address the fundamental causes of Pakistan’s insecurity, especially its latent and enduring conflict with India. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Introduction</span><br /> <br />This paper seeks to appraise the relationship between Afghan insurgents and Pakistan’s Inter- Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). It is not intended to be a precise analysis of this relationship, which is inevitably dynamic and opaque, or to specify how it is manifested in any particular location. Rather, it explores its principal dimensions as expressed by insurgent commanders and those with first-hand knowledge or experience of the Afghan insurgency. <br /> <br />The author conducted semi-structured interviews in or near Kabul and Kandahar, from February-May 2010, with nine insurgent field commanders: three operating in the south of the country (Kandahar province), three based in the centre of the country (Wardak province), and three operating in the south-east (two in Khost and one in Ghazni); and one high level Taliban intermediary. All interviewees were contacted and interviewed separately. Though some of the commanders operate in the same province, none is based in the same district as another, and none disclosed to comrades that they were being interviewed. Given the comparative lack of research involving active insurgents, their comments are reproduced at length. For background research and corroboration purposes an Afghan research assistant conducted a further six insurgent interviews: three in Kandahar with commanders who operate in that province; and three in Quetta: with a senior Taliban official and commanders who operate in each of Kandahar and Helmand. <br /> <br />The author also conducted interviews with ten former senior Taliban officials (six ministers, two ambassadors, a high-ranking civil servant and a military commander); twenty-two Afghan elders, tribal leaders, politicians and analysts; and thirteen foreign diplomats, experts and security officials.<br /> <br />As various analysts have shown, the Afghan insurgency is segmented, principally consisting of seven armed groups of different provenance (Ruttig 2009a; Giustozzi 2009). However, this research focuses on two of the most significant elements of the insurgency. First, the core Taliban movement led by Mullah Mohammad Omar, which is relatively hierarchical and has national reach but is strongest in southern Afghanistan; and, to a lesser extent, the Haqqani network, led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, which is based in Waziristan, but operates largely in south-east Afghanistan. <br /> <br />After the loss of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1971, Pakistan took steps to counter a perceived threat from India and growing Pashtun nationalism. Part of the response was an increasing Islamicization of society, reflected in the proliferation of maddrassas, and greater support for militant, Islamist groups that could be used as proxies in Kashmir and Afghanistan Cohen 2004). <br /><br />In the 1980s the ISI was instrumental in supporting seven Sunni Muslim mujahedeen groups in their jihad against the Soviets, and was the principal conduit of covert US and Saudi funding. It subsequently played a pivotal role in the emergence of the Taliban (Coll 2005:292) and Pakistan provided significant political, financial, military and logistical support to the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan (1996-2001)(Rashid 2001). This support was comprised not only of arms, ammunition, equipment, fuel and other supplies, but also military advisers and trainers, as well as economic support. Even in 2001, in breach of UN sanctions, up to thirty ISI trucks a day were still crossing into Afghanistan’ (Rashid 2008:60). This research asked insurgents and informed individuals: To what extent has this relationship endured? <br /> <br />Separately, there are a wide range of Islamist militant groups, principally based in north-west Pakistan, a large number of which coalesced under the banner of Tehrik-e-Taleban-e- Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban (Franco 2009:269). Although the ISI previously supported many of these groups, since 2007 the militants have increasingly turned their fire on Pakistani state. Consequently, the Pakistani military has undertaken extensive operations against their strongholds in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While there are undoubtedly links between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, they appear to be sufficiently distinct for the Pakistani military and ISI to treat them very differently. <br /> <br />Most studies posit a relationship of co-existence between the ISI and the Afghan Taliban, and suggest that individuals or elements within, or connected to, the ISI and Pakistani military support or advise the insurgents. As a US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report summarises: <br /> <br /> Many analysts believe that Pakistan’s intelligence services know the whereabouts of ... Afghan Taliban leadership elements and likely even maintain active contacts with them at some level as part of a hedge strategy in the region. Some reports indicate that elements of Pakistan’s major intelligence agency and military forces aid the Taliban. (Kronstadt 2009:12) <br /> <br />However, a 2010 CRS report suggests that: ‘Pakistan appears to have shifted somewhat to actively assisting the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan.’ <br /> <br />The author Ahmed Rashid argued recently (The Washington Post, 27 April 2010) that: ‘Taliban leaders and their families live in Pakistan and are in close touch with the military and its ISI. Some Taliban allies, such as the network led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, are even closer to the ISI. Although the military is finally hunting down the Pakistani Taliban in the Northwest tribal areas, the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani extremists in Punjab province are being left alone.’ <br /> <br />This paper argues that this is a significant underestimation of the current role of the ISI in the Afghan insurgency. Given that the ISI and its operations are by their nature secret, the findings described below are based on interviews and cannot by conclusively verified.<br /><br />However, according to Taliban commanders the powerful role of the ISI is ‘as clear as the sun in the sky’. <br /> <br />The paper considers the ISI involvement in terms of Taliban strategy; operations; sanctuary, funding, supplies and munitions; and training and recruitment. Separately, it considers ISI involvement in the Haqqani network. <br /> <br />Given the intrinsic opacity of covert agencies and their operations, it is not possible to say with certainty whether interviewees are correct in attributing certain individuals or activities to the ISI specifically. Therefore, references to the ISI should be taken to mean the ISI and/or, in some cases, elements of the Pakistani military or security agencies with whom they operate. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Strategy </span><br /> <br />Through providing sanctuary and support to the Afghan Taliban, and arresting those who step out of line, the ISI appears to be able to exert significant influence on Taliban strategy. As a Kandahari political figure summarised: ‘The ISI have some control [over the Taliban]. They have influence in strategic decision-making. Sure, they have dominated the Taliban movement, but they [the Taliban] have some independence.’ Likewise, a political analyst in Kandahar said: ‘The Taliban is obliged to accept Pakistan’s demands – it needs their support, but is not their puppet.’ <br /> <br />The Taliban-ISI relationship is founded on mutual benefit. The Taliban need external sanctuary, as well as military and logistical support to sustain their insurgency; the ISI believes that it needs a significant allied force in Afghanistan to maintain regional strength and ‘strategic depth’ in their rivalry with India. As a former Taliban minister put it: ‘The ISI are helping the Taliban a lot, but they only give for their own gain. There is a reciprocal issue: Kashmir. The root of the problem in Afghanistan is the Pakistan-India competition.’ <br /> <br />Pakistan’s fundamental strategic calculus does not appear to have altered significantly since the 1970s. According to Steve Coll (The New Yorker, 24 May 2010) earlier this year Pakistan submitted a briefing to the US on its national interests in the Afghan conflict, which reportedly, ‘reflects one overriding concern: India.’ Indeed, in February 2010, the US Director of National Intelligence confirmed: ‘Islamabad’s conviction that militant groups are an important part of its strategic arsenal to counter India’s military and economic advantages’. As Steve Coll explains (The New Yorker, 1 March 2010): ‘Pakistan’s generals have retained a bedrock belief that, however unruly and distasteful Islamist militias such as the Taliban may be, they could yet be useful proxies to ward off a perceived existential threat from India. In the Army’s view, at least, that threat has not receded.’<br /><br />Many in the Pakistan establishment believe that India has significant, and increasing, economic and political influence in Afghanistan. India enjoys close relations with the Karzai administration, has four regional consulates, and is providing substantial reconstruction assistance, including rebuilding the Afghan parliament, and construction projects on the Pakistan border (Tellis and Mukharji 2010; Sullivan 2010). Senior Pakistani officials also believe the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, scheduled to commence from July 2011, could open up a power struggle from which India could benefit (Tellis 2010) – a major incentive for Pakistan to maintain, or even strengthen, its Afghan allies (Wilkens 2010). <br /> <br />Pakistan’s support to the Afghan insurgency is reinforced by its aspiration for influence among the Pashtuns that are divided by the disputed ‘Durand Line’, which separates Afghanistan and Pakistan. It thus seeks to subdue the ‘<span style="font-weight:bold;">Pashtunistan</span>’ cause and quiescent Afghan claims to territory in north-west Pakistan, including in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA. <br /> <br />But how is Pakistan’s strategic influence manifested in practice? As noted above, analysts dispute whether ISI support to the insurgency is officially sanctioned, and whether it is carried out by serving or former officers. Some analysts speak of the ‘collaboration of elements within the ISI’ with the Taliban (Johnson and Mason 2008). Antonio Giustozzi argues there is evidence of the involvement in the insurgency of ‘advisors with long-standing experience of Afghanistan, such as current or former ISI operatives’ (Giustozzi 2007). <br /> <br />Seth Jones has argued: ‘There is some indication that individuals within the Pakistan government—for example, within the Frontier Corps and the ISI—were involved in assisting insurgent groups’ (Jones 2008). He has also reported that by mid 2008, ‘the United States collected fairly solid evidence of senior-level complicity [in ISI support to the insurgents]’ (Jones 2010) <br /> <br />In an organisation up to ten thousand strong (Bajoria 2009), with cross-service membership (Cohen 2004:100), and extensive partitioning of operational responsibilities, there is inevitably the possibility of recalcitrant elements. However, interviews strongly suggest that support to the Afghan insurgency is official ISI policy. It appears to be carried out by both serving and former officers, who have considerable operational autonomy. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">ISI Membership of the Quetta Shura </span><br /> <br />The supreme council of the Afghan Taliban is properly known as the ‘Rabari’ or ‘Markazi Shura’ (leadership or central council). However, most of the insurgents interviewed for this research referred to it as the ‘Quetta Shura’. (They distinguished it from another Quetta Shura, which is the military command council for Taliban operations in southernAfghanistan.) Therefore, unless otherwise stated, references to the Quetta Shura in this paper are intended to mean the leadership or central council. <br /> <br />It is not clear to what extent the membership and activities of the Quetta Shura are regimented or formalised. However, it is widely believed to comprise around a dozen or so members who meet several times a year; while certain members and sub-committees may meet more frequently. Interviews strongly suggest that the ISI has representatives on the Shura, either as participants or observers, and the agency is thus involved at the highest level of the movement. Significantly, even a limited ISI presence on the Shura would allow the agency to monitor the Shura’s decisions and take steps against members who are not perceived to be acting in Pakistan’s interests. <br /> <br />One individual who was a deputy minister under the former Taliban regime and who frequently liaises with the Taliban, said that three to seven ISI officials attend the Quetta Shura as observers. He believes that the ISI has responsibility for organising the meetings and that it exerts pressure on individual participants beforehand, especially if major decisions are to be taken.20 As one commander put it: ‘We heard that the ISI were on the Quetta Shura, but we don’t follow their orders. They are observers, not making decisions.’ An Afghan conflict analyst, with years of experience in southern Afghanistan and contacts with the Taliban, concurred, pointing out that the ISI, ‘use people who have the same appearance, language, behaviour, and habits as Afghans. They wouldn’t be strange to the Talibs, who seem to them to be Muslims, also fighting infidels.’ In fact, both he and other interviewees suggested that the ISI observers could be Afghans, possibly even Taliban leaders who are working closely with, or for, the ISI. <br /> <br />Almost all the Taliban commanders interviewed believe the ISI are represented on the Quetta Shura. One senior southern commander said: ‘Every group commander knows the reality – which is obvious to all of us – that the ISI is behind the Taliban, they formed and are supporting the Taliban.’ He also explained why it was not widely known: ‘Every commander knows about the involvement of the ISI in the leadership but we do not discuss it because we do not trust each other, and they are much stronger than us. They are afraid that if they say anything against the Taliban or ISI it would be reported to the higher ranks – and they may be removed or assassinated ... Everyone sees the sun in the sky but cannot say it is the sun.’<br /> <br />An ISI presence on the Shura is consistent with the agency’s heavy involvement in the movement’s inception and augmentation, as noted above. Indeed, a detailed assessment of the history and composition of the Quetta Shura indicates that the ISI, ‘maintains a hand in controlling its operations’ (Tribal Analysis Center 2009:6). <br /> <br />In addition, the ISI may be able to exert influence by exploiting tribal fractures within the Shura. It has limited representation of Zirak Durrani tribes, members of which tend to occupy <br /><br />senior positions in the Afghan government (the Karzai family, for instance, is from the Popalzai Zirak Durrani tribe). Instead, it comprises mainly Ghilzai Pashtuns (the Zirak Durranis’ historic rivals) and, increasingly, members of the Panjpai branch of the Durrani tribe (that are smaller, more disbursed and tend to have less government power than Zirak Durrani tribes). <br /> <br />Reportedly, two members of the Quetta Shura (Mohammad Hassan Rahmani and Abdul Razaq) are from the Achakzai tribe, a Zirak Durrani sub-tribe, which has been internally divided, manipulated by other groups or tribes, and, unlike other Zirak Durrani sub-tribes, excluded from political power. It is also principally located in Pakistan. Thus, as the Tribal Analysis Center argue: ‘It is entirely possible that ISI has some positive influence, if not actual control, over one or both of the Achakzai members of the Quetta Shura’ (Tribal Analysis Center 2009). <br /> <br />The ISI may also be able to exert influence through exploiting other fissures, and significant levels of mistrust, in the Taliban leadership. Indeed, interviews suggest that there is currently a rivalry or latent power-struggle between, on the one hand, the newly-empowered Qayyum Zakir, military commander of the movement, his deputy, Mullah Akhtar Mohammed Mansour, and his close associate, now believed to be head of the Quetta Shura, Mullah Abdul Raouf Khadem, and, on the other hand, the old guard figures of Amir Khan Muttaqi, Mullah Mohammad Hassan and Mullah Gul Agha. Although the extent of this dissension is not clear, it may well have generated opportunities for manipulation. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">ISI pressure and Taliban leadership arrests </span> <br /> <br />The ISI has apparently established parameters of Taliban conduct and strategy, reinforced by the threat of arrest. Independent contacts between the Taliban’s former military commander, Mullah Baradar, and the Afghan government, possibly with a view to negotiations, apparently breached these boundaries, and so he and at least seven other Taliban leaders were arrested by the ISI in early February 2010. It appears that the arrests were intended to send a message to both the Taliban and the United States that negotiations could only take place if the ISI had a major role in, if not control over, the negotiating process.<br /> <br />This view was echoed by Taliban commanders, most of whom doubted Pakistan’s support for negotiations. As a commander from a central province said: ‘The ISI arrests [of Taliban leaders] were done for their own interests; they don’t want peace in Afghanistan, and they don’t want them to talk to the Afghan government. If there is peace, it is not to Pakistan’s benefit.’ <br /><br />According to the conflict analyst: ‘There is not an equal relationship between the ISI and Taliban – the ISI are far more powerful. The Taliban don’t have any choice except to live in Pakistan; where else can they go?’ One former Taliban deputy minister said he thought Taliban leaders in Pakistan were ‘living under pressure ... they fear the Pakistan government, that their families will be taken to prison.’ This is confirmed by a joint US, NATO and Afghan intelligence assessment from June 2006, which concludes: ‘A large number of those fighting are doing so under duress as a result of pressure from the ISI.’<br /> <br />The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has a deliberate decapitation strategy that uses special forces to target Taliban commanders, which has been remarkably effective (as confirmed by ISAF officials and a majority of commanders interviewed). Thus, to some extent, Taliban leaders are caught between pressure and the threat of imprisonment from the ISI, and Afghan and international forces north of the border. Interviews suggest that Talibs deeply resent the ISI pressure. Indeed, one interviewee who has frequent contact with Taliban leaders and commanders said the only people they hate more than the Americans are the ISI. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Government collusion </span><br /> <br />Analysts are divided on the extent to which ISI policy towards Afghan insurgents is determined independently of civilian officials, especially after Pakistan’s newly elected government attempted, and failed, to bring the ISI under the control of the Interior Ministry in July 2008. Seth Jones has written: ‘there were some reports that senior officials of the ISI and the Pakistan government were aware of the ISI’s role [in supporting the Taliban] and were actively encouraging it.’ (Jones 2010:267). An incident in late March or early April suggests that the policy is approved at the highest level of Pakistan’s civilian government. <br /> <br />According to a Talib who has regular contact with members of the Quetta Shura, in late March or early April this year President Zadari and a senior ISI official visited some 50 high- ranking Talibs who were held in a prison in a secret location in Pakistan. Some 30-35 had been arrested in recent months, and 10-15 were longer-term prisoners. Reportedly, he told them they were arrested because he was under a lot of pressure from the Americans and that, ‘you are our people, we are friends, and after your release we will of course support you to do your operations.’ (Disturbingly, Zadari’s words echo what the ISI’s commanding general, Mahmud Ahmad, said to the Taliban’s Pakistan Ambassador, Abdul Salam Zaeef, in late in 2001, “We want to assure you that you will not be alone in this jihad against America. We will be with you”, as quoted by Steve Coll in his article (The New Yorker, 1 March 2010). <br /> <br />President Zadari told the prisoners he would release them in two categories: first, those who are not well known to the media, who would be released shortly, and, second, those who are<br /><br />better known, who would be released later in prisoner exchanges. He strongly urged them not to report the meeting to the media. Consistent with Zadari’s promise, just three days after the visit, around a dozen Taliban figures were released (including an individual who is the indirect source for this account).<br /> <br />This report is consistent with Pakistan’s political history, in which civilian leaders have actively backed jihadi groups that operate in Afghanistan and Kashmir. As Christine Fair concludes: ‘The army does not operate alone... Previous civilian governments tolerated and even supported some militant enterprises.’ (Fair 2009:161-163) <br /> <br />Indeed, the report gives credence to the claim of two American analysts, Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason, that ‘Pakistan is in fact following its own perceived strategic interests, which do not coincide with those of the United States.’ They even argue that the arrests constitute, ‘not cooperation against the Taliban by an allied state; it is collusion with the Taliban by an enemy state [Pakistan]’ (Johnson and Mason 2008). <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Arrest and release of Zakir and Raouf </span><br /> <br />As noted above, in early February 2010 the ISI arrested seven or more Taliban leaders, including Qayyum Zakir and Mullah Abdul Raouf Khadem, two of the most powerful individuals in the movement. Yet, only days after their detention they were released. To say the least, this is a strong indication of significant ISI influence over the movement and it is highly likely that the release was on ISI terms or at least on the basis of a mutual understanding. <br /> <br />The Pakistan government is said to have a long-term bias against the Durrani tribes due to their record of support for the idea of ‘Pashtunistan’ and claims to Pakistan territory. The appointments of Zakir and Raouf, who are reportedly Alizai, a sub-tribe of the Panjpai Durrani tribe, confirm the trend of increasing Panjpai Durrani representation on the Shura. As noted above, this could indicate diminishing ISI influence over the Taliban leadership. <br /><br />However, it is more likely to be an attempt by the ISI to increase its control over the movement and empower leaders more to their suiting: Mullah Baradar, who was arrested, is a Popalzai Zirak Durrani, which may have helped to facilitate links to President Karzai and his influential brothers. Increasing Panjpai Durrani representation on the Shura helps to strengthen the authority of the movement, given Afghanistan’s long tradition of Durrani rulers (Tribal Analysis Center 2009:6,7,10), and gives Pakistan more leverage in any possible negotiations. <br /> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Views of commanders and informed individuals </span><br /> <br />All eight Talibs interviewed (seven field commanders and one senior intermediary) believe that the ISI has heavy influence on their leadership, four of whom believe that this amounts to control.One of the southern commanders claimed: ‘If any one rejects that the ISI backs or controls the Taliban, he has a mental problem ... all our plans and strategy are made in Pakistan and step by step it is brought to us, for military operations or other activities. Pakistan [the ISI] does not have only one representative on the Quetta Shura, they have representatives everywhere. As for Mullah Baradar’s arrest, do you think they didn’t know where he and others were before that? ... the ISI have more than two, three or four [representatives] on the [Quetta] Shura. ... Some [other members of the Quetta Shura] know they work for the ISI, but it’s not discussed. ... The reality is that the ISI controls the leadership. Mullar Omar has strong support of Pakistan; he has to listen to them and do what they say.’<br /> <br />This view is echoed by leading community, tribal, civil society and political figures in Kandahar. Fourteen interviewees live in Kandahar, all of whom have first-hand knowledge of, or connections to, the insurgency; 10 of them believe that the ISI is represented on the Quetta Shura and has either control of the movement, or something that approximates to control. (The other four believe that the ISI has control or significant influence over the movement, but are not sure if it has representation on the Shura.) <br /> <br />A political figure said: ‘Everything is controlled by the ISI. Without the agreement of the ISI, then the insurgency would be impossible... The big problem is that Pakistan created the fundamentalists; the government, military and ISI supported them; yet while the first two have stopped supporting them, the ISI continues to ... of course ISI are on the Quetta Shura.’ (Obviously, this claim is not consistent with President Zadari’s approbation of the Taliban, but that is not surprising given its apparent secrecy.) <br /> <br />Although many informed Afghans interviewed argue that the ISI is controlling the Taliban leadership, this is probably an exaggeration, given the powerful internal force and dynamics of the movement. The Taliban leadership also has a record of resisting Pakistani pressure (for instance, the refusal of the Taliban regime to recognise the Durand Line or to hand over Osama bin Laden to the US). Nevertheless, indications of significant ISI involvement at a strategic level are compelling, and are consistent with reports of their influence in the field. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Operations </span><br /> <br />Insurgents believe the ISI shapes their operations in a powerful, surreptitious and coercive way. They even believe that the ISI is represented on their operational command councils. One, from a central province, said: ‘We heard the ISI are on the Quetta, Miramshah and Peshawar shuras, [the operational command councils for the south, south-east and eastern Afghanistan] and we’re not happy about this.’ Certainly, insurgent skills and capabilities at the operational and tactical level suggest the involvement of trained military personnel (Giustozzi 2007:25). As a former senior security official said: ‘They give them the plans, the strategy and new techniques. The chain goes back to the ISI.’ This is also consistent with reports that the ISI has provided tactical, operational and strategic intelligence to the Taliban (Jones 2010:266). <br /> <br />It should be borne in mind that insurgents may seek to shift the blame for some of their most egregious activities, such as the execution of elders or attacks on schools; they may misapprehend and overstate ISI power; or they may in fact be in a state of denial. <br /> <br />However, it is hard to discount the consistency, cogency and force of commanders' views. These comments of one southern commander echo those of many others: ‘There are a lot of ISI Taliban and they are very strong. It is very hard to recognise them ... Both foreign [meaning non-Pashtun] and Afghan Talibs are working for the ISI.’ He described how if an Afghan Talib is working for the ISI, and ‘if he is above us [in rank], then there is nothing we can do against him. The ISI make plots for killing commanders who do not obey their orders ... They have their groups and commanders, to whom they pay a lot, very secretly. They reach their interests through these commanders.’ <br /> <br />Likewise, the Afghan conflict analyst described how: ‘I have spoken to foot-soldiers and low- level commanders, who all say, “we have no independence, if we do not obey [the ISI] we are fired, replaced or transferred.” ISI control doesn’t extend to all levels, but there is a hierarchy that is disciplined.’ Arguably, such influence is facilitated by the movement’s fragmentation. As one commander put it: ‘I can’t say the Taliban are all united, there are different groups, and different ideas ... different leaders, which makes it very complex.’ <br /> <br />Southern Taliban commanders all complained of heavy ISI involvement, which they say is often responsible for attacks on civilians - accusations which have also been reported by Antonio Giustozzi (Giustozzi 2007:27). A south-eastern Taliban commander said: ‘They [the ISI] have specific groups under their control, for burning schools and such like. The ISI [also] has people working for it within the Taliban movement – it is clearer than the sun in the sky.’ <br /> <br />One southern commander described their predicament as follows: ‘Another group of Taliban is directly supported by the ISI. They will never stop fighting in the country; they want to destroy the government and bring chaos. Behind all the attacks on ... NGOs, schools, teachers, doctors, this is Pakistan. We cannot deny that it is Taliban; but there are Pakistan- controlled groups among us. They want destabilisation. They are the enemies of our nation and our country. The people in charge of these factions are members of the Pakistani intelligence. The fighters are Afghans, but they are not true Afghans. We have spoken to them, and they feel that only the Taliban are Muslims, but those who are just normal, working Afghans – who die in the suicide attacks – they think they are all infidels. The ISI Taliban are stronger than us, they have more money, and are supporting us. We have few resources, so we have to follow them. We have no backers in order to resist them. I was never given an orderto blow up a bridge or burn a school, because they know who is suitable. Even if they tell me I would not tell my fighters to do it. The Pakistan Taliban is perhaps about 30 per cent of the Taliban in our district [in Kandahar], but they are much stronger than the others, who have to follow them.’ <br /> <br />Two other southern commanders echoed these claims: ‘The assassination of tribal leaders, of ‘mawlawis’ [religious leaders] has ruined the foundation of our country. The ISI stand behind all this, the burning of schools, keeping children out of education, the beheadings, all are related to the ISI Taliban. The Emirate and Islam never order these innocent people to be killed. When we are ordered to do these things, we cannot say no, but try to persuade our commanders that we shouldn’t do it. If I don’t do it, they will make me powerless or a foot- soldier. ... Many [Taliban commanders] have been assassinated by the ISI.’ <br /> <br />The other southern commander said: ‘The ISI gives orders to the Taliban to attack road contractors, schools or aid workers. They tell our commander and he orders us. They say it is the Taliban’s plan, we know it is their [the ISI’s] plan. We know the projects are for the welfare of communities, we know that burning schools is not against the [Afghan] government; they benefit the community, so we know they are ISI activities. If he doesn’t accept he will be dismissed or killed. .... On the Kabul-Kandahar highway all the bridges are destroyed, this is on the orders of the ISI. Our country is like our house, nobody from the family wants to destroy his own home. If you see such destruction, you should know your neighbour [Pakistan] has done this.’<br /> <br />There have been reports of Pakistani commanders operating in Afghanistan, such as a Taliban commander killed by British special forces in late 2008 who was identified as a Pakistani military official (see Christina Lamb’s article for the UK Sunday Times, 12 October 2008). However, most commanders contend that Afghans are working for the ISI, and therefore the truth of the above assertions is difficult to verify.53 It could be an attempt to evade responsibility for acts that are deeply unpopular with ordinary Afghans or an overestimation of ISI involvement. Nevertheless, it reinforces claims of ISI participation in Taliban operations and raises the possibility that the ISI may be supporting the most violent commanders or units within the movement. Arguably, it is consistent with the arrest of Taliban leaders that showed an interest in talks with the Afghan government, and with the ISI sanctioning, perhaps even orchestrating, the replacement of Mullah Baradar with the more hard-line Qayyum Zakir. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sanctuary, funding, munitions and supplies</span> <br /> <br />The Taliban have a number of sources of external support, and there is little doubt that elements within Iran are increasing the arms, funding and training they provide to Afghan insurgents. This paper, however, focuses on support provided from within Pakistan.<br /><br />ISI involvement in the early stages of the insurgency has been widely acknowledged. From 2003-2004 the ISI were operating training camps for Taliban recruits, and facilitating the supply of funds, equipment and arms from Gulf countries.54 The Pakistani army established medical facilities for Taliban fighters, and were even providing covering fire at border crossings. Communications intercepts showed that Taliban commanders were liaising with Pakistani military officers to ensure safe passage across the border (Rashid 2008:223). <br /> <br />The scale of ISI support was evident from the major Taliban offensives launched in southern Afghanistan in 2006. In June that year a joint US, NATO and Afghan intelligence assessment (noted above) concluded that the ISI not only provided a vital sanctuary for the Taliban, but also paid and pressured them to fight. As Ahmed Rashid puts its, ‘over time evidence slowly collected by U.S. and NATO intelligence officers on the ground showed a systematic and pervasive system of ISI collusion.’(Rashid 2008:222) <br /> <br />A number of analysts suggest that due to American and international pressure in 2006, 2007 or later, Pakistan has curtailed its support for the insurgents, but there is little evidence to support this. Indeed, in February this year the US Director of National Intelligence admitted that the ‘Pakistan safe-haven is an important Taliban strength’, and made no mention of any change in their behaviour vis-à-vis the Afghan insurgents. <br /> <br />A former Taliban minister said there continued to be close cooperation on cross-border movement between the Taliban and ISI or military, of which he had seen written evidence: ‘I have seen a letter from the Taliban governor in Helmand to Pakistani officials, one year ago, which asks for them to let some vehicles go through the border, giving their type and number plate’. ISAF officials readily accept that insurgents continue to cross the border in significant numbers. And as one southern commander confirmed: ‘When we need ammunition we go to Miramshah [in North Waziristan]; our base is there and we get ammunition and expenses. If I go across the border, even if the Pakistani authorities know I am a commander they open the way for me, all the way to the base.’<br /><br />Taliban financing is diverse. As confirmed by senior American officials, and reported by Craig Whitlock in his article (The Washington Post, 27 Sept 2009), the movement receives significant funding from sources in Gulf countries. The insurgents also derive income from: ‘ushr’ an Islamic tithe or ‘zakat’, charitable donations, applied to businessmen or farmers, especially opium cultivators and traffickers; ransom from kidnappings; protection money from contractors or officials; or from selling goods from ambushed supply vehicles (Giustozzi 2009:8,51,187,202). <br /> <br />However, interviews suggest that Pakistan continues to give extensive support to the insurgency in terms of funding, munitions and supplies. As a south-eastern commander put it: ‘We receive a lot of training, weapons, ammunition and expenses from the Pakistan government. ... Everyone knows Pakistan gives money, it goes centrally, then flow down.’ Another commander from a central province said: ‘Of course, it’s a huge project [the insurgency], it needs huge funding, IEDs [improvised explosive devices], ammunition, training, needs everything, all of this has been given by Pakistan. We do not have facilities to produce any of this. ... We get 10,000 Pakistani rupees ($120) per month for each Talib. This money comes from Pakistan, first to the [shadow] provincial governor, then to the district commander, then to the group commander. It is from the Pakistan government – but maybeother countries too, are paying from behind the curtain.’ One southern commander reported that groups were paid bonuses for successful attacks against coalition forces, usually of $2,000-3,000, which he believed were derived from ISI sources. <br /> <br />Likewise, a commander from a central province said: ‘The ISI help our commanders, they come occasionally, and meet secretly. They give money and advice. I don’t like them – they are not honest people, they are fighting for their own purposes. Most Taliban think this. But we have to work with them – we don’t have any other choice. If we get injured or sick we have to go to Pakistan for treatment, or for training.’ <br /> <br />These accounts were corroborated by former Taliban ministers, a western security analyst, and a senior UN official based in Kabul, who said the Taliban largely depend on funding from the ISI and groups in Gulf countries. <br /> <br />The ISI also appears to be funding groups of Taliban fighters who are based in and operate from Pakistan. One southern commander said that when he and comrades were living in Pakistan they used to solicit donations for fighting in Afghanistan, but: ‘The ISI and Pakistan government [also] paid. Charity was small money; it didn’t even pay the rent. Groups going to Afghanistan [from Pakistan] have a lot of expenses. For sure the ISI were paying a lot of money: groups of 20-30 people got 2-3 million Pakistani rupees [$24,000-$36,000] each year.’68 Some Afghan and western security officials believe that the ISI is also covering the living costs of the families of Taliban fighters who live in Pakistan.<br /><br />The sheer scale of the insurgency appears to have convinced Afghan officials that it is supported by Pakistan. An Afghan minister interviewed for this research argued: ‘The ISI control the Taliban – otherwise there couldn’t be this level of insurgency, with huge logistical and military needs. How can we ... take this out of Pakistani hands?’ Likewise, a former senior Afghan security official observed: ‘For fighters, when they move to fight it’s essential that they have logistical support. They need vehicles, fuel and food. They need ammunition. They need money and guns. ... They need a hospital to take their casualties to for treatment. So who is providing these things to the Taliban if it’s not Pakistan?’ This argument is reinforced by the fact that the Afghan insurgency may be over 35,000 strong, as reported by Jerome Starkey (The Times [London], 3 March 2010) and last year launched an average of 620 attacks a month. Assuming costs associated with each Talib average $150 per month, manning costs alone would exceed $60 million a year. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Training and recruitment </span><br /> <br />The interviews suggest that the ISI continues to sanction and support military training centres for insurgents and a large number of madrassas that actively encourage their students to fight in Afghanistan. All commanders reported that significant numbers of their fighters attend training camps in Pakistan that are run or backed by the ISI. One southern commander described how in his district, where there are some 600 fighters, around 70-80 fighters had gone to Pakistan for training this winter [2009-2010].75 Emphasising the continuing importance of such training, a south-eastern commander said that, ‘of the 280 fighters in our district, some 80 per cent were trained in Pakistan.’<br /> <br />Commanders described their own experiences in Pakistani madrassas and training camps, highlighted below, which suggest a large-scale, well-organised system. One southern commander attended a madrassa in Quetta for four years to 2008. There were 500-600 students, most of whom were Afghan, and some 60-70 graduated every year. He said: ‘Everyone was saying jihad [in Afghanistan] is good. All our teachers were saying this as well. Everyday jihad was discussed.’ Apparently, jihad in Afghanistan was raised and endorsed not only in political classes but also in both religious, and religious law classes. At certain times, groups of students from the madrassa would attend military training camps in Pakistan (to learn how to make and lay IEDs, for example) or spend a period fighting in Afghanistan, which could range from 10-20 days to several months. <br /> <br />The commander described one round of training that took place at a house in Wana in South Waziristan agency, FATA, in 2005. There were between 20 to 50 people (at different times), who were being instructed in how to make suicide vests and car bombs. ‘The trainers were ISI. One of the trainers had two jobs: he worked with us and in the Pakistan military. There are very good relations between the Pakistan military and Taliban, a good friendship; we’d often sit together and exchange ideas on how best to attack. ... The man was definitely ISI, hetold some of us. When some of our friends were arrested by the Pakistani authorities, he went and got them freed.’<br /> <br />One of the commanders from a central province described how he spent a year in a Pakistani madrassa in 2008, describing it as ‘a big camp, really big, like a university with 2,000-4,000 people’ (although he believes it is now much smaller). It included a military training camp, where they were taught combat techniques, such as how to lay IEDs, attack or ambush. He said two-thirds of the students were Afghans, and that their Afghan and Pakistani teachers were continually telling them, ‘it was our duty to fight in Afghanistan.’<br /> <br />The other commander from the centre of Afghanistan described how he spent four years in a Pakistani madrassa in Karachi with 600-800 others, one third of whom were Afghans. He said that every day, either in formal classes or informal discussions, ‘jihad against the infidel American invaders’ would be condoned and encouraged. Often students would go for two or three months military training, and then some months fighting in Afghanistan, after which they would return to the madrassa. He said that the camps were ‘huge, with thousands of people’. Indeed, in 2007 he attended a camp in the mountains near Mansehra, in Kyber Pakhtunwha, which was up to 2,500 strong. The training was comprehensive: in attacks, ambushes, escapes, and in using rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and the PKM heavy machine gun (although IED training was conducted elsewhere). He said that all those attending the camp were being trained for fighting in Afghanistan. He also believed that most of the Pakistani military trainers were ISI: ‘The ISI is hard to recognise; we could tell, but we kept it secret.’ <br /> <br />Given that the commanders’ experiences are from some years ago, it is impossible to verify the continuance of this form of insurgent recruitment and training in Pakistan. However, most of the commanders believed that the only significant change is that the military training camps are now smaller, more dispersed and better concealed – a point which also emerged from research on the Haqqani network. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Haqqani network</span> <br /> <br />This section considers the Haqqani insurgent group, which is based in North Waziristan but operates mainly in south-eastern Afghanistan or ‘Loya Paktia’ and provinces further north towards Kabul. Although the group has links to the Taliban, it is considered separately given that it has a separate leadership, membership and operations. It is not intended as a detailed analysis of the group - such as impressively accomplished by Thomas Ruttig (Ruttig 2009b:57-88) - but focuses on its links to Pakistani officials, as described by Haqqani commanders. <br /> <br />Two such commanders were interviewed: one was jointly responsible for operations in three districts (referred to below as the ‘district commander’); the other was one of the two or three most senior Haqqani commanders. He leads eight other commanders with about a total of a thousand fighters (referred to below as the ‘senior commander’).81 The analysis is divided into the same sub-sections applied to the Taliban, above: strategy; operations; sanctuary, funding, supplies and munitions; and training and recruitment. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Strategy </span><br /> <br />Western analysts and intelligence agencies have long been aware of ISI support to the Haqqani network, which is founded on historic ties and ‘symbiotic relations’. Indeed, US intelligence agencies believe: ‘Islamabad has maintained relationships with ... Taliban- associated groups that support and conduct operations against US and ISAF forces in Afghanistan. It has continued to provide support to its militant proxies, such as Haqqani Taliban’. Both Haqqani commanders confirmed this relationship, which substantiates the ISI designation of Jalaluddin Haqqani as a ‘strategic asset’, as discussed by Catherine Philip in her article (The Times [London], 17 Feb 2009). Notably, Western intelligence officials attribute the July 2008 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul to the Haqqani network (Kronstadt 2009) <br /> <br />The senior commander described how the network was led and resourced by a command shura comprising Maulawi Jalaluddin Haqqani, his son Sirajuddin Haqqani and a small group of former senior ISI officials (at least one other of whom is Afghan), who are, in his words, contracted by and working for the ISI.’ The other district commander remarked: ‘If the Pakistani ISI were not with him [Jalaluddin Haqqani], then he can’t do anything’. <br /> <br />These views are consistent with the clandestine network, described by Ahmed Rashid, comprised of former ISI operatives or army officers who were hired by the ISI ‘on contract’ after 2001 to support Afghan insurgents (Rashid 2008:221). In March this year the New York Times reported that western officials believe ‘Colonel Imam’, a senior former ISI official, ‘has continued to train, recruit and finance the insurgents. Along with a number of other retired Pakistani intelligence officials, they say, he has helped the Taliban stage a remarkable comeback.’ <br /> <br />Indeed, it appears the ISI reportedly had a central role in the genesis (in some ways, re- emergence) of the Haqqani group after the intervention in 2001. The district commander described how he and many former Talibs and jihadi fighters were living in Pakistan, doing ordinary jobs. But in 2003-2004 the ‘Pakistani military and ISI’ were actively ‘trying to reconnect us, encouraging us to join back together, and urging us to fight. They said if you go back we will give you money, weapons, support.’ <br /> <br />With regard to relations with the Taliban, the senior commander said that neither Sirajuddin or Jalaluddin Haqqani was any longer a member of the Quetta Shura: ‘Before we got all [strategic] decisions from the Quetta Shura, but recently because they started talking to the [Afghan] government, we stopped being involved with them.’ The district commander believed that the Haqqani group was still represented on the Quetta Shura but suggested that there were not strong links with the Taliban. (He also said that in his area Haqqani fighters sometimes had ‘problems’ with Taliban and Hizb-e Islami fighters, which led to fighting. He was critical of both groups, who he accused of co-opting criminals.) He also said that there were a number of Arabs working for the Haqqani group, sometimes as commanders. Although he did not believe these were Al Qaeda operatives, there are reported to be close links between the Haqqani and the Al Qaeda networks (Ruttig 2009b:75). <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Operations</span> <br /> <br />The senior commander described how the ISI had significant influence within the ranks of the network, claiming: ‘Yes – there are ISI people inside the Taliban, even in the Afghan government. Three of my [eight] commanders have close relations with the ISI.’ <br /> <br />He described command and control arrangements, and his reluctance to carry out attacks which targeted Afghan civilians. ‘Our fighters get orders from the command group [of former ISI officials and Sirajuddin Haqqani], it goes step by step down the hierarchy. The top command gives the orders. We get orders to attack American, ANA (Afghan National Army), ANP (Afghan National Police) bases, whoever works with the Afghan Government and the Americans – even aid workers – all of them. This is an order I’ve been given. Construction workers and logisticsworkers. If they give money to Serrajudin then they don’t get attacked; if not, then they’re attacked. Taliban are not all the same. Some groups never attack Afghans; some others, run by the ISI, even attack schools, everybody. I support the ANA and ANP; so many times I sheltered them in the fighting. My view is that we should fight Americans; the ISI are telling us to kill Afghans. In Afghanistan, a lot of commanders were trained by the ISI so when they get orders from the ISI, they always listen to them. I hate the big suicide attacks that kill Afghan civilian; I hate the killing of NGO workers.’ <br /> <br />Whether these assertions are true is debatable (the caveats mentioned with respect to the Taliban also apply here). However, it is certainly consistent with a view among analysts that the Haqqani network is one of the most ruthless, aggressive and powerful insurgent groups (Ruttig 2009b:62,74). <br /> <br />Echoing comments of the senior commander, the district commander described how certain groups, comprised of mainly Pakistani fighters, are based in and operate from north-west Pakistan. ‘There are secret places in Miramshah and Quetta ... before the bases were open but now they are secret. Apart from the Pakistani authorities no one knows they are there. ... Police or military vehicles transport fighters to the border at night. ... Other trucks loaded with guns and ammunition arrive separately, which are distributed at the border. The Pakistani army, police, intelligence all cooperate. ... Only the group commander knows where they will fight.’ <br /> <br />He described how he is involved in such operations around once a month: in 2010 he had undertaken four such missions by May, and one just a fortnight before. He said that around 40 per cent of all the attacks in his area were undertaken by these groups, and that ‘there are many [of these] groups and their number is increasing.’ <br /> <br />He described how many are led by ‘Pakistani ISI or military officers’, apparently often Punjabis, who comprise the majority of the officer corps of the Pakistani army. He said that although they don’t wear uniforms, they (the Haqqani fighters) knew who they were because of their particular appearance and manner. They are, ‘well educated, well trained, give strong orders ... use advanced techniques ... and develop good plans’. He said they participate in almost all important operations, but if it is a major operation, then there might be up to three such commanders involved. He confirmed that from his district he would regularly communicate by radio with people in Pakistan whom he believed to be military. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sanctuary, funding, munitions and supplies</span> <br /> <br />Directly or indirectly, the ISI appear to have a major role in sustaining the Haqqani group. The senior commander said that in every three weeks he would usually spend two in Pakistan and one in Afghanistan. Every month he would receive 60-80 boxes of AK47 rounds and two or three large boxes of grenades and IEDs. If he required further supplies or munitions, he would go to the command group (the Haqqanis and former ISI officials) who would issue him with a letter of credit, which he could present to arms dealers in Khost (in south-east Afghanistan) or Miramshah. For operating expenses, he receives a monthly cheque of between 0.5-1 million Pakistani rupees $6-12,000. He believes the money comes from two sources: Gulf Countries, especially Saudi Arabia, that is accessed through the Saudi Bank; and from the ISI, which is accessed from the Islamic Bank of Pakistan, in which the Haqqani network apparently has a representative. Indeed, the former claim is corroborated by a recent report that over $920 million has flowed from Saudi Arabian donors to Afghan insurgents, mainly via Waziristan, over the last four years. <br /> <br />The district commander described how arms and ammunition would sometimes arrive in his area by trucks, and sometimes by horses, donkeys or camels, which was ‘from the Pakistani military’. He said that they were paid salaries: fighters receive around 9-10,000 Pakistani rupees ($110-120) a month and he, as a commander, receives 15-20,000 Pakistani rupees ($170-220) a month. It is apparently provided through ‘hawala’ (the informal money transfer system). When asked who it came from he replied: ‘The Americans. From them to the Pakistani military, and then to us.’ He was baffled as to why, in his eyes, the Americans were supporting their activities. (In fact, many Afghans believe that the United States is deliberately funding the insurgency. Although this is not credible, it is hardly surprising given America’s massive and sustained support to the Pakistani military.) Separately, the commander confirmed that groups receive a reward for killing foreign soldiers, usually $4- 5,000 for each soldier killed. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Training and recruitment</span> <br /> <br />There are apparently a number of small, covert Haqqani bases in North Waziristan and Korram Agencies, and Quetta, staffed by serving or former Pakistani military officials. They are often combined with a madrassa, provide a broad-based military training, and include suicide bomber cells. <br /> <br />The senior commander described how until recently there were insurgent training camps in Pakistan for two to three thousand fighters, but due to drone strikes they are now far smaller, capable of training 120 Taliban each, usually for 20 days at a time. He said there are now three major camps, two in Korram Agency and one near Miramshah. He related how: ‘The trainers are all Pakistan ISI – they are well trained, well educated. The Taliban have strong support of the ISI. Training is in all military tactics: attacks, ambushes, IEDs – but not suicide bombers. This training is separate, very specialist ... they have 200 standby suicide bombers; it’s run bPakistanis, Arabs, Chechens, Saudi Arabia, people who use foolish, uneducated boys 13-15 years, and most of these come from madrassas.’<br /> <br />This account is consistent with events on the ground in Afghanistan. For example, a suicide attack in Kabul on 18 May this year, which killed eighteen people including twelve civilians, has been widely attributed to the Haqqani network. A spokesman for the Afghan intelligence directorate said: ‘The intelligence service of our neighbouring country has definitely had its role in equipping and training of this group.’ <br /> <br />The district commander also described Haqqani bases in Quetta and Miramshah: ‘The base I use [in Miramshah] is in a house, with a huge basement, for around 50 people. Outside is a big board saying it is an office. The basement is divided into sections, for example some groups are being trained in IEDs; they sleep and eat in these rooms. People being trained for suicide attacks are kept separate. There’s also a big madrassa hall. Groups are taken off to other places to practice shooting or whatever. People stay for around a month.’ He described the people there as, ‘young boys, who cannot discern good from bad, who don’t know history but are very good fighters. They want to die for Islam’. <br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Taliban </span><br /> <br />Both Haqqani commanders echoed the comments of Taliban commanders about the presence of ISI on the Quetta Shura. According to the senior commander: ‘Yes the ISI control the Quetta Shura. When Mullah Baradar and Mullah Omar talked directly to the Afghan government – peace talks – the ISI arrested Baradar ... because they want peace talks to fail. I don’t know how many ISI are on the Quetta Shura ... Honest Afghans who want jihad and are honest to their country, were disarmed, detained and became powerless ... I know many good high-ranking [former] Taliban who are not supporting the fight in Afghanistan ... the rest are listening to the ISI, [and] still have the control. I don’t like this. Without the support of the ISI, Afghans cannot do anything, can’t even have meetings. Both former and current ISI are on the Quetta Shura. New ISI members are not so reliable and do not have such a strong role in it; the former ISI have more credibility and influence. All the Taliban interested in the peace process are detained.’ <br /> <br />Perhaps surprisingly, he argued: ‘Peace talks with the Afghan government are a good idea. The most important condition for the Afghan Taliban is the withdrawal of foreign forces. They should say how long they will be here, and when they will withdraw, and keep to the date exactly. The ISI Taliban will never come to peace – they always want instability and weak government here.’ <br /> <br />Similarly, the district commander said: ‘The Taliban get all their plans and strategy from the ISI, if they don’t cooperate, they can’t live for a day there.’ He doubted that negotiations with the Afghan government would succeed because in his view: ‘The Taliban is in the hands of Pakistan. They have to do what Pakistan tells them to do; they do not have autonomy. Pakistani wants a weak, puppet government in Afghanistan.’ <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Conclusion</span> <br /> <br />The Taliban movement has a strong internal impetus and dynamic. Numerous studies have shown that there are endogenous drivers of the insurgency, and this is confirmed by the interviews. Taliban and Haqqani fighters are motivated by a range of factors, many of which relate to government predation, corruption or injustice, and the perceived aggression of foreign military forces (see for example Giustozzi 2009 and Waldman 2010). <br /> <br />Thus, despite the claims of many interviewees, the ISI (and elements of the Pakistani military) may not actually control the Afghan insurgency, which implies power over all major dimensions of the movement and its campaign, and the ability to bring it to an end. However, as the provider of sanctuary, and very substantial financial, military and logistical support to the insurgency, the ISI appears to have strong strategic and operational influence – reinforced by coercion. There is thus a strong case that the ISI and elements of the military are deeply involved in the insurgent campaign, and have powerful influence over the Haqqani network. <br /> <br />This relationship appears to be of a different nature, or at least order of magnitude, than suggested by most studies. However, this assessment has been shared with three experienced Afghan analysts and two senior western security officials, who concur with the principal findings. <br /> <br />It means that without a change in Pakistani behaviour it will be difficult if not impossible for international forces and the Afghan government to make progress against the insurgency. It also means that, as one southern commander put it, ‘if the ISI doesn’t support negotiations [with the Afghan government], then they won’t succeed.’ <br /> <br />Perhaps more significantly, it is hard to see how the international coalition can continue to treat Pakistan as an ally and ‘effective partner’ (US Department of Defense 2010:5). Only last December President Obama affirmed that ‘we are committed to a partnership that is built on a foundation of mutual interest, mutual respect and mutual trust.’92 Since 2001 America has provided Pakistan with $11.6 billion in security-related assistance and $6 billion in economic aid. It is due to provide at least $7.5 billion dollars of aid over the next five years. Pakistani officers are even represented on the Tripartite Joint Intelligence Operation Center situated in ISAF Headquarters in Kabul (US Department of Defense 2010:7 and 32). <br /> <br />American and other western intelligence agencies must be aware of Pakistan’s conduct. Theapparent contradiction – backing the enemy’s backer – is perhaps a reflection of America’s preoccupation with the threat it faces from Al Qaeda and associated groups, rather than the Afghan Taliban. It may reflect a reluctance to confront an unstable, nuclear-armed country that faces a serious internal threat from Pakistani Taliban groups. It may also reflect a concern not to jeopardise Pakistani cooperation in preventing terrorist attacks against western targets; or a fear of galvanising extremism among Pakistani immigrant communities. <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"> <br />Nevertheless, Pakistan appears to be playing a double-game of astonishing magnitude. </span>The conflict has led to the deaths of over 1,000 American and 700 other foreign military personnel; thousands of Afghan soldiers, police, officials and civilians; and an unknown number of Afghan, Pakistani and other foreign insurgents. It has already cost America nearly $300 billion, and now costs over $70 billion a year (Belasco 2009). As a Haqqani commander put it: ‘Of course Pakistan is the main cause of the problems [in Afghanistan] but America is behind Pakistan.’<br /> <br />The Pakistan government’s apparent duplicity – and awareness of it among the American public and political establishment – could have enormous geo-political implications. It could jeopardise American financial support: security-related assistance is conditional on Pakistan’s cooperation on Afghanistan. Moreover, it could trigger punitive counter-measures by the US and its allies, or direct military action against the Afghan Taliban in Pakistani territory. <br /> <br />However, an aggressive American response to Pakistan’s conduct is only likely to generate further instability, especially given the army’s on-going battle against Pakistani militant groups and widespread anti-American sentiment among the population. The priority must be to address the fundamental causes of Pakistan’s insecurity, in particular its latent and enduring conflict with India. This requires a regional peace process and, as Bruce Riedel has argued, American backing for moves towards a resolution of the Kashmir dispute (Reidel 2008). It should be accompanied by support for military and political reform, and a combination of incentives and disincentives to persuade Pakistan’s elite that support for Islamic militants is no longer in Pakistan’s national interests (see Fair 2009 and Fischer 2010). <br /> <br />Even this is no panacea for the Afghan conflict; it merely makes treatment possible. So long as the root causes remain – especially a corrupt, exclusionary, unjust government, and the perception among some Afghans of an aggressive, self-serving foreign military presence – then the violence will continue. <br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Reference: </span><br /> <br />Bajoria, Jayshree. 2009 ‘The ISI and Terrorism: Behind the Accusations’, The Council on Foreign Relations <br /> <br />Belasco, Amy. 2009. ‘The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan and other global War on Terror operations since 9/11’. US Congressional Research Service report, September 2009 <br /> <br />Cohen, Stephen Philip. 2004. ‘The Idea of Pakistan’. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press <br /> <br />Coll, Steve. 2005. ‘ Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001’ London: Penguin <br /> <br />Dressler, Jeffrey and Forsberg, Carl. 2009. ‘The Quetta Shura Taliban in Southern Afghanistan’, Institute for the Study of War <br /> <br />Fair, C. Christine. 2009. ‘The Time for Sober Realism: renegotiating US relations with Pakistan’. The Washington Post Quarterly, Vol 32:2 <br /> <br />Fischer, Karl. 2010 ‘The Af-Pak Strategy: reactions in Pakistan’, Afghanistan Analysts Network. March 2010. <br /> <br />Franco, Claudio. 2009. ‘The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’, in A. Giustozzi (ed.), Decoding the New Taliban: Insights from the Afghan Field. London: C.Hurst, & Co. <br /> <br />Giustozzi, Antonio. 2007. ‘Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop’. London: C.Hurst & Co. <br /> <br />Giustozzi, Antonio. 2009. (ed.), Decoding the New Taliban: Insights from the Afghan Field’. London: C.Hurst & Co. <br /> <br />Johnson, Thomas H. and Mason, M. Chris. 2008. ‘No Sign until the Burst of Fire; Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier’, International Security, Vol. 32: 4 <br /> <br />Jones, Seth. 2008. ‘Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan’. RAND Counterinsurgency Study 4 <br /> <br />Jones, Seth. 2010. ‘In the Graveyard of Empires: America’s War in Afghanistan’. New York: W.W. Norton & Co <br /> <br />Kronstadt, K. Alan. 2009. ‘Pakistan-US Relations’, US Congressional Research Service report, February 2009 <br /> <br />Kronstadt, K. Alan. 2010a. ‘Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2011’, Congressional Research Service report, 9 March 2010 <br /> <br />Kronstadt, K. Alan. 2010b. ‘Major U.S. Arms Sales and Grants to Pakistan since 2001’, US Congressional Research Service report, 23 March 2010 <br /> <br />Rashid, Ahmed. 2001. ‘The Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and Fundamentalism in Central Asia’. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press<br /><br />Rashid, Ahmed. 2008. ‘Descent into Chaos. How the War against Islamic Extremism Is Being Lost in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia’. London: Allen Lane <br /> <br />Reidel, Bruce. 2008. ‘Pakistan and Terror: the eye of the storm’ in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 618:1 <br /> <br />Ruttig, Thomas. 2009a, ‘The Other Side: Dimensions of the Afghan Insurgency: Causes, Actors and Approaches to Talks’, Afghanistan Analysts Network, July 2009 <br /> <br />Ruttig, Thomas. 2009b. ‘The Haqqani Network as an autonomous entity’ in A. Giustozzi (ed) Decoding the New Taliban: insights from the Afghan field’. London: C. Hurst & Co. <br /> <br />Sullivan, Tim. 2010. ‘Indo-Pakistan proxy war heats up in Afghanistan’, The Associated Press, 26 April <br /> <br />Tellis, Ashley J. and Mukharji, Aroop (eds) 2010, ‘Is a Regional Strategy Viable in Afghanistan?’, Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace <br /> <br />Tellis, Ashley J. 2010. ‘Beradar, Pakistan, and the Afghan Taliban: What Gives?’. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace <br /> <br />Tribal Analysis Center. 2009. ‘The Quetta Shura: a tribal analysis’. Williamsburg: Tribal Analysis Center <br /> <br />US Department of Defense. 2010. ‘Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan and United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces’. Report to Congress. April 2010 <br /> <br />Waldman, Matt. 2010. ‘Golden Surrender: the risks, challenges and implications of reintegration in Afghanistan’. Afghan Analysts Network. April 2010 <br /> <br />Wilkens, Ann. 2010. ‘Smoke gets in your eyes’, Afghan Analysts Network, March 2010BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-91648529481469104362010-06-10T22:04:00.001-07:002010-06-11T01:08:56.713-07:00WORLD CUP SOCCER !!!Enjoy this link : <a href="http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/mundial/sudafrica-2010/calendario-english.html">http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/mundial/sudafrica-2010/calendario-english.html</a>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-87246649508941553672010-05-30T22:30:00.000-07:002010-05-31T02:01:52.023-07:00India's pipelines - change acronyms from IPI to II and from TAPI to TIIThe previous post "<a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2010/05/primer-before-new-post-great-game.html">THE GREAT GAME</a>" laid bare the Great Game and the politics of “hydrocarbons”. It is a fact that by proven reserves alone – Russia and Iran control 50% of the world’s gas. And with the new super “kid” on the block – Turkmenistan – the gas equations are set to change forever. <span style="font-weight:bold;">What will not change is Asia’s domination on gas – a potential $ 15 trillion and counting business opportunity.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Afghanistan happens to be at the crossroads of gas of Central Asia and warm water ports of Pakistan ( a client state of the USA). The other is Iran – NOT a client state of US.</span><br /><br />India has always been a marginal player in the Great Game – because of its gentle giant posturing in the global arena. A part of that image may be changing and I will come to that in a short while.<br /><br />From the last post on Great Game to now – many things have changed. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aObYnsr7rchs&refer=exclusive">China</a> desperately needs Iranian oil and gas, has already clinched a $100 billion gas "deal of the century" with the Iranians.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TANNp-qI0DI/AAAAAAAABAU/-RaHCQ6eQM8/s1600/turkmenistan+china+pipeline.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 383px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TANNp-qI0DI/AAAAAAAABAU/-RaHCQ6eQM8/s400/turkmenistan+china+pipeline.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5477306955402367026" /></a><br /><br />Mother of All Pipelines -t<span style="font-weight:bold;">he Turkmen-Kazakh-China Pipeline corridor from eastern Turkmenistan to China's Guangdong province will be the longest and most expensive pipeline in the world, 7,000 kilometers of steel pipe at a staggering cost of $26 billion.</span> When China signed the agreement, they made sure to add a cleveris little geopolitical kicker. The agreement explicitly states that "Chinese interests" will not be "threatened from [Turkmenistan's] territory by third parties." In translation: <span style="font-weight:bold;">no Pentagon bases allowed in that country</span>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">This last point – no Pentagon bases – is of immense help to not only China but Russia and India too.<br /></span><br />China has immense hunger for hydrocarbons and it will see to it that its legitimate dues are secured in the global stage. Being a weak naval power ‘currently’– it seeks to procure hydrocarbons through the expensive land route. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Where does India fit in?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">India had forever talked of IPI (Iran – Pakistan – India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India) pipeline. In the maps of geography, these pipelines were easy to draw. However in the cauldron of geopolitics – it was anything but so. The pipes were to make past the security and terrorist infested land of Pakistan, the Taliban and its mines in Afghanistan – hence is it any surprise that till date after numerous talks and flip flops on pricing – the pipelines of TAPI and IPI remain where they were before - on maps only.</span><br /><br />But that is about to change. No Pakistan did not have a change of heart and neither has Afghanistan become an adobe of peace. Indian planners may have hit the ultimate geopolitical coup.<br /><br />Before going into details:<span style="font-weight:bold;"> A look at Iran and Turkmenistan.</span><br /><br />Here are the gas grid pipelines in Iran. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Look at the northern part – Turkmenistan sits atop. Iran has linked gas pipeline infrastructure to Chabahar port on the southern side.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TANLlGHBzsI/AAAAAAAABAE/1Nc93yVpmac/s1600/Iran+natural+gas+grid.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 316px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/TANLlGHBzsI/AAAAAAAABAE/1Nc93yVpmac/s400/Iran+natural+gas+grid.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5477304672479989442" /></a><br /><br />Turkmenistan has played it best – it has decided to do business with all and not be a client state of any one country. <br /><br /><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8443787.stm">Turkmenistan has opened a second gas pipeline to Iran</a>, further eroding Russia's historical domination of its energy sector. The new pipeline will eventually more than double Turkmenistan's annual gas exports to Iran to 20bn cubic metres.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">IPI pipeline becomes II pipeline and TAPI becomes TII pipeline.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">IPI to II</span>: <span style="font-weight:bold;">Iran Pakistan India (IPI) gas pipeline becomes Iran India (II) pipeline. The pipeline simply bypasses the landmass of Pakistan and instead takes the undersea route. It might be more expensive – but in real world situations – a clincher of a plausible pipeline. No more will it remain on the maps and India will not be held hostage to Pakistan’s dirty tricks. This will hurt Pakistan majorly in financial terms – but that is least of the worries.</span><br /><br />Remember the Chabahar port that India help build (read the previous post). The submersible part of the pipeline will start from the<a href="http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/27-May-2010/India-Iran-mull-undersea-gasline-bypassing-Pak"> Iranian port city of Chabahar</a> and will deliver gas to consumers in Gujarat in India. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The carrying capacity of the gas pipeline’s first leg will total 31 billion cum annually, with the cost of construction estimated at 4 billion dollar.</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Editorials/28-May-2010/Iran-pipeline-project">The Nation</a>, a right wing newspaper aligned to the military wrote in its editorial: “<span style="font-style:italic;">TALKS are going on between Iran and India for the construction of a gas pipeline that would have Arabian sea as its course rather than Pakistan. It would cost $4 billion and would be 1,110km long. The project should jolt Islamabad out of its meek obeisance to Washington’s wishes, and prompt it to actively engage Tehran to finalise the stalled gas pipeline project. It is strange that New Delhi, which is a strategic partner of the US, should be able to disregard its ban and collaborate with Iran in such a venture, that would be highly lucrative for Iran</span>.”<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TAPI to TII</span>: <span style="font-weight:bold;">This is even a better one. It bypasses two volatile regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan altogether. As of now both Afghanistan and Pakistan are client states of the US. And the US will not be viewing this move of the Indians with pleasure. Given the slap the US has received from Russia and China consistently in the CARs (Central Asian Regions) – this move by India will not go down well. <br /><br />However, for Indians, this is the only viable option. How does it work?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">First : Turkmenistan pumps in the Indian requirement of gas into northern Iran gas grid.<br /><br />Second: Iran then swaps this Turkmenistan gas pumped into its northern grid, with its own gas into the Southern grid. (Note: No actual gas is flowing from northern grid to the southern grid – swap is a very normal practice in gas and oil sales).<br /><br />Third: This swapped gas (which is actually Iranian gas = quantity of Turkmen gas pumped into its northern grid) is then pumped by Iran’s southern pipelines to Chahbahar port.<br /> <br />Fourth: Here Indian pipelines take over and through submerged route, receive gas into its Gujarat port – where it is connected to the national grid.<br /></span><br /><br />While <span style="font-weight:bold;">pipelines for India have become a geo-political reality, it has become a geo-political nightmare for the US.</span> And the US is not known to be an idle bystander as it sees even India slipping from its grasp in this Great Game.<br /><br />Three news in short that will have serious implications in our region:<br /><br />1. <a href="http://www.debka.com/article/8794/">DEBKAfile's</a> military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran. For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.<br /><br />2. Tehran reports that an Iranian naval patrol Thursday, May 27, detected a US nuclear submarine sailing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the oil produced by Persian Gulf states passes on its way to world markets. <a href="http://www.debka.com/article/8812/">DEBKAfile's</a> Iranian sources report Tehran has placed its navy and army on high alert.<br /><br />3. The United States recently renewed supplies to the Israeli Air Force of GBU-28 Hard Target Penetrators and GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs, as well as Attack Munitions (LDJAM) for more accurate targeting of bombs, <a href="http://www.debka.com/article/8772/">DEBKAfile's </a>military sources report. The 2,268 kilo (5,000 pound), laser-guided Bomb Unit GBU-28 (nicknamed "Deep Throat") Hard Target Penetrator which can burrow 31 meters into earth or 6.2 meters into reinforced concrete. They can penetrate the stronger Hizballah installations or be used on Iranian nuclear weapons or missile installations, if so decided.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Now that Israel has fired on a flotilla sent by Turkish NGO and killing a few on board that were trying to block the Israeli blockage, the flash point in Middle East just became shorter!</span><br /><br />The middle east together with North Korea, puts Asia in a state of turmoil. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The attack on Iran, when it comes, will have disastrous consequences for the region. <br /><br />But India should not waver from its commitment with any regime in Iran to go ahead with the II and TII pipelines. </span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-24900729258552741202010-05-28T05:37:00.001-07:002010-05-28T05:42:28.654-07:00PRIMER BEFORE THE NEW POST : THE GREAT GAME<span style="font-weight:bold;">Before I write the new post in the next 2 days</span> - reading this old post which I wrote in December 09 is important.<br /><br />The world needs energy and hence we have the term “energy security”. For the longest time, energy meant OIL. Well, that is changing now – to OIL & GAS, and then onto Renewable energy, Solar energy, Wind energy et al.<br /><br />Today we are the initial cusp, where we are moving from OIL based energy dependence to a Gas based energy dependence. A few countries have made the leap, but globally we are at the inflexion point.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Why this shift ?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Oil has a finite supply and that supply is on the verge of coming to an end.</span> According to the Energy Bible : BP Statistical Review, at current levels of production, <span style="font-weight:bold;">Oil reserves of -<br /><br />1. Saudi Arabia is projected to last only 66 years<br />2. Iraq & Kuwait is projected to last 100 years<br />3. India, Australia, Italy, Brazil is projected to last 21 years.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsph1MdDSI/AAAAAAAAAF0/dBkVxxB73JM/s1600-h/bp-oil_chart_map_proved_oil_reserves_560.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 259px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsph1MdDSI/AAAAAAAAAF0/dBkVxxB73JM/s400/bp-oil_chart_map_proved_oil_reserves_560.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281360649213775138" /></a><br /><br />In contrast to the dipping oil reserves, <span style="font-weight:bold;">the gas reserves are growing as new findings are being made.</span> Cars which are running on gasoline (petrol) and diesel will be run on Auto LPG, CNG etc and these are all gas derived. Subsequently these cars will run on <span style="font-weight:bold;">hydrogen and even on Compressed Air</span> (Our very own <a href="http://www.alternativefuel-cars.com/tata_nano_optional_airpowered.htm">TATA NANO</a>). Industry, home etc will make this shift as pipeline infrastructures are put in place. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">And most of this Gas is located in a place called Central Asia. The access to this by major global powers has been romantically called “THE GREAT GAME” - to get a toehold to the supply lines of Central Asia Gas.<br /></span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs5oKUqQlI/AAAAAAAAAG8/5ZiVlFv0T-k/s1600-h/centralasian_pipelines.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 306px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs5oKUqQlI/AAAAAAAAAG8/5ZiVlFv0T-k/s400/centralasian_pipelines.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281378350150599250" /></a><br /><br />Currently the <span style="font-weight:bold;">largest gas reserves are in Russia with 48 TCM, followed by Iran with 28 TCM</span>. However, all this is changing and will continue to change. <span style="font-weight:bold;">With the discovery of Yolotan Osman gas field in Turkmenistan in October 2008, the gas equation and dynamics have changed. Preliminary indications are the gas reserves in Turkmenistan is around 38.4 TCM – far more than Iran and just 20% lower than Russia.</span> And this means immense geopolitical movements around this neighbourhood.<br /><br />It is to be understood, gas needs to be extracted and then moved over pipelines, some running over thousands of kilometres to reach its ultimate destination. Mostly the end destinations are ports – from where super tankers carry their cargoes around the world. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Getting hold of gas fields in not enough. Hence, it is also a game of getting hold of “warm water ports”. The major players in Central Asia are Russia, USA and China. </span><br /><br />Let us look at the map of Central & South Asia.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs4-i9nAfI/AAAAAAAAAGs/CpGNZ1Xknkk/s1600-h/map-south-asia.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 324px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs4-i9nAfI/AAAAAAAAAGs/CpGNZ1Xknkk/s400/map-south-asia.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281377635210297842" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Turkmenistan is atop Afghanistan & Iran and this Yolotan Osman gas field is just near the Afghanistan – Turkmenistan border. Other than this, for other gas fields too, Afghanistan is of extreme importance – pipeline infrastructure to warm ports – hence <span style="font-style:italic;">USA will be embedded in Afghanistan for “generations".</span> </span><br /><br />Central Asian nations were part of Soviet Union and <span style="font-weight:bold;">the breakup of Soviet Union was the handiwork of USA where <a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2008/12/michael-vickers-and-mumbai-attacks.html">MICHAEL VICKERS</a> played a sterling part in arming and training the Mujahideen from bases in Pakistan. The goal – Access to Central Asian gas reserves, maintaining its superpower status etc etc</span>.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The other major concern for USA is to keep both Russia and China out of the gas reserves of Central Asia. And also ensure that India and Russia do not join hands with Iran (USA remembers Northern Alliance).</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">BTC PIPELINE:</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsptBMSszI/AAAAAAAAAF8/QdjKTP1wQLs/s1600-h/BTC_pipeline.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 249px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsptBMSszI/AAAAAAAAAF8/QdjKTP1wQLs/s400/BTC_pipeline.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281360841412883250" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Azerbaijan was the true success story of US oil diplomacy.</span> Clinton literally snatched it from Russian orbit in the 1990s by pushing through the <span style="font-weight:bold;">Baku – Tbilsi – Ceyhan (BTC)</span> pipeline against seemingly impossible odds. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The pipeline meanders from Baku (capital of Azerbaian) to Tbilsi in Georgian and then onto the Turkish port of Ceyhan. From here gas is filled in super tankers and shipped to Europe for consumption.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">BTC completely bypasses Russia<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span> and this was the main purpose of this line.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">NABUCCO PIPELINE</span>:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs6Lq_MKOI/AAAAAAAAAHM/xhev3K41GHg/s1600-h/nabucco.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs6Lq_MKOI/AAAAAAAAAHM/xhev3K41GHg/s400/nabucco.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281378960214337762" /></a><br />The other <span style="font-weight:bold;">important pipeline for the USA is the Nabucco pipeline.</span> However, question marks have appeared regarding the future of the Nabucco gas pipeline, which, if constructed, would bypass Russian territory and bring Caspian gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia and Turkey to the European market. What if Azerbaijan accepts the Russian offer to buy gas at "European prices"? <span style="font-weight:bold;">Has the Caucasus conflict fatally hurt Nabucco's prospects? It seems, for the present, it has.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Europe has pinned its hopes on Nabucco, but it can only be implemented with Russian participation and also Iran. Nabucco is a serious threat to the Russian “South Stream pipelines” that feed Europe.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SUtd-jrMoxI/AAAAAAAAAUc/phKXy59ip5w/s1600-h/black-sea-map.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 243px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SUtd-jrMoxI/AAAAAAAAAUc/phKXy59ip5w/s320/black-sea-map.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281418317331735314" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">BLACK SEA TO A NATO LAKE:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">USA was planning and plotting and came to the conclusion that it has to make BLACK SEA into a NATO LAKE.</span> If you look at the map of Central Asia, notice that other than Russia the other 2 countries of ex-Soviet Union that skirt the Black Sea are <span style="font-weight:bold;">Ukraine and Georgia</span>. <span style="font-weight:bold;">And guess, who have been offered NATO memberships – you guessed it right – Ukraine and Georgia.</span><br /><br />However, Russia remains vehemently against this NATO intrusion into its former republics and has made its opposition very clear. <span style="font-weight:bold;">USA overplayed its hands in Georgia and gave Russia the chance to kill two birds with one stone.</span><br /><br />Georgia has two breakaway provinces – Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It has majority Russian population. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The Georgian maverick President Mikhail Shakashvili, under direction from his US experts, started bombing these two provinces to take them over by force. </span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs41iApk-I/AAAAAAAAAGk/rlOR6nBWHbE/s1600-h/georgia.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 247px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs41iApk-I/AAAAAAAAAGk/rlOR6nBWHbE/s400/georgia.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281377480335791074" /></a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Russia just drove in and in deft military manoeuvres took control of these provinces. Russia annexed these two provinces, and thus took de-facto control of two major Black Sea ports of Sukhumi & Poti. This was a great tactical blow to USA, because with this single Russian manoeuvre, the US dream of making BLACK SEA into A NATO LAKE was LOST - probably FOREVER.</span><br /><br />There were reports that <span style="font-weight:bold;">Israel wanted to use bases in Georgia to attack Iran and one of Russia’s aim was to pre-empt that.</span> Interesting to note – <span style="font-weight:bold;">Israel got wind of the Russian attack a week before the attacks and left Georgia with its advisers (note: USA stayed behind).</span> The Israelis went to Russia and admitted that <span style="font-weight:bold;">arming Georgia was a mistake and implored Russia NOT to arm Hezbollah and Iran with sophisticated armaments and missiles.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Germany came running to Russia and told them that they will block Ukraine’s and Georgia’s entry into NATO and this is exactly what they did</span> – together with France. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Germany, scarred from WWII memories of Russia and currently dependant on gas sales from Russia is in no position to take on Russia, nor is there any inclination to anger the Russian bear. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.topnews.in/rice-backs-nato-plans-georgia-ukraine-293218">Condoleeza Rice</a> came out defeated and admitted, “Georgia and Ukraine are not ready for (NATO) membership. That is very clear”. Russia won through coercive diplomacy.</span><br /><br />Russia also sent a message through this military move to all its former republics, <span style="font-weight:bold;">to take cognizance of Russian interests while plotting their gas sales – which have all been duly noted.</span> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Central Asian republics all saw that USA is actually in NO position to militarily help them – Georgia was a case in point. </span><br /><br />Russia deftly followed this by meeting Syrian President Assad and<span style="font-weight:bold;"> getting the port of Tartus as a resting place for its Black Sea maintenance quarters. </span><br /><br />With a series of further moves, <span style="font-weight:bold;">Russia has made USA nearly redundant in the Caspian region</span>. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Russia is flush with funds, and the economic might of USA has taken a serious beating in the economic crisis.</span><br /><br />Russia has re-negotiated to buy gas from Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan at prevailing “<span style="font-weight:bold;">European prices<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span>” thus raising the bar.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The four Russian oil majors had asked Putin for $ 80 billion package to pay off their foreign debts and finance strategic projects. Putin responded by saying that the government will disburse upto $ 50 billion.<br /><br />How many Western governments can match Russia providing such backing of sovereign wealth funds to its oil majors at the present time of global credit crunch?<br /><br />Moscow offered $4 billion loan to Ukraine for establishing two nuclear power plant in its western region. This is despite the pro-US stance of Ukranian Victor Yushchenko.</span><br /><br />Also, there is <span style="font-weight:bold;">huge</span> political symbolism when<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Iceland expresses “dissapointment” with the Western world and turns to Moscow for a 4 billion Euro ($ 5.5 billion) loan to salvage its economy from imminent bankruptcy.</span><br /><br />Such images make a lasting impression on the Central Asian steppes.<br /><br />Russia with its vast deposits of oil and gas is already an energy superpower. And unlike Iran and Venezuela, it does not subsidize its economy from the oil proceeds – hence with the oil price down, its economy is still strong unlike those that of Iran and Venezuela. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The EU is heavily dependant on Russia for gas imports and this dependence is expected to increase further as a result of declining offshore production of North Sea.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsxaD6Bm4I/AAAAAAAAAGU/Xx9Ne9axyKc/s1600-h/casp_pipe_map.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 276px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsxaD6Bm4I/AAAAAAAAAGU/Xx9Ne9axyKc/s400/casp_pipe_map.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281369311817079682" /></a><br /><br /><strong>TUSSLE IN AZERBAIJAN</strong>:<br /><br />Currently there are <strong>3 major pipelines </strong>running from Baku (capital of Azerbaijan). <strong>2 are US sponsosred - the BTC pipeline and the Baku - Supsa pipleline </strong>(Supsa in Georgia). <strong>The 3rd one is the Russain pipeline : Baku - Novorossiisk pipeline.</strong> SEE MAP ABOVE.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Azerbaijan</span> is negotiating with Russia to increase the annual capacity of the <span style="font-weight:bold;">Baku – Nvorossiisk pipeline</span>. At the same time Azerbaijanis <span style="font-weight:bold;">reducing its commitment to the US sponsored Baku – Supsa and BTC pipelines</span> and this is a major breakthrough for the Russians. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Azerbaijan understands the Russian resurgence in southern Caucasus and Baku’s new interest in the Russian pipeline stems from a desire to protect its relationship with Moscow.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The implications are very serious for Washington.</span> <span style="font-weight:bold;">Any reduction in the Baku export through BTC could impact the viability of the pipeline </span>which has been the cornerstone of US diplomacy in the region, pumping nearly 1 million barrels of oil / day from Azerbaijan to Turkey’s coast from where it is shipped to Europe. BTC, though secure now, has come under the watch of the Russians.<br /> <br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SUuTgJ2Cb6I/AAAAAAAAAUk/Ap7INyOhPYQ/s1600-h/cpc-map-en.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 176px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/SUuTgJ2Cb6I/AAAAAAAAAUk/Ap7INyOhPYQ/s400/cpc-map-en.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281477168629706658" /></a><br />In September 2008, Uzbekistan and Russia agreed to build a new pipeline with a capacity of 26 to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually to pump Uzbek and Trukmen gas to Europe. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Such a pipeline will again undermine the US efforts to pump trans-Caspian energy routes bypassing Russia.<span style="font-weight:bold;"></span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">On top of this, neither Azerbaijan nor Kazakhstan appears interested in US entreaties to re-route energy exports bypassing Russia. Both hope to maintain good relations with USA but that cannot be done by picking a quarrel with Russia.</span><br /><br />It seems the US phrase – “<span style="font-weight:bold;">either you are with us or against us</span>” is <span style="font-weight:bold;">not</span> finding any takers in Central Asia. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Central Asian countries would do business with both but not at the expense of Russia and this rankles the USA as it has clearly fallen from the high “horse” they thought it was in.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">CHINA:</span><br /><br />At the same time China is anxious to get its act together and bind its energy security in this region.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> It has formed <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation">SCO</a> to cement its energy needs in this region which the US is vehemently trying to push out.</span> China knows that it cannot match US power for at least the next 15 years and its naval forces are no match to the US fleet and even the Japanese fleet. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Hence it is going out of its way to get to the Central Asian gas reserves through land routes, even though many of them look unviable at the present time.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUtBRDb1WsI/AAAAAAAAAHs/Q4-jDCnZyRE/s1600-h/ESPO.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 390px; height: 223px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUtBRDb1WsI/AAAAAAAAAHs/Q4-jDCnZyRE/s400/ESPO.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281386749257669314" /></a><br /><br />One of the better tieups will be to tag along the <span style="font-weight:bold;">Russian ESPO pipeline</span>. Russia is expected to complete this <span style="font-weight:bold;">East Siberia to Pacific (ESPO) by 2012 for routing oil to Asian markets.</span> Kazakhstan’s state oil pipeline operator <span style="font-weight:bold;">KazTransOil is interested in transporting Kazakh oil through the ESPO. To note – Astana has shown no hurry to commit Kashagan oil to the US sponsored BTC pipeline but has committed to the Russian ESPO pipelines. </span> US influence has truly reached its <span style="font-weight:bold;">nadir</span> in this region.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUtBdlRDUaI/AAAAAAAAAH0/HSlx8srCX_E/s1600-h/china_pipes.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 250px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUtBdlRDUaI/AAAAAAAAAH0/HSlx8srCX_E/s400/china_pipes.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281386964497682850" /></a><br /><br />Unlike the USA or Russians, the Chinese have their own method of doing business overseas. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Being a mercantilist and free of moral and political constraints, it hopes that it will continue doing what it loves best – making money. Chinese hope to sell cheap DVD players and exotic Chinese prostitutes, build roads and docks and in the bargain – gobble up Central Asian energy.<br /></span><br />Washington is clearly nervous that <span style="font-weight:bold;">Kazakhstan is showing alarming signs of shifting towards Moscow.</span> All early investments by the USA in this region has come to naught. Astana supported Russian action in the Caucasus and cut down its investment in Georgia. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Clearly the Russians and Chinese have outmanoeuvred the American in Central Asia stakes</span>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TURKMENISTAN</span>: <br /><br />We had touched earlier on the fact : Preliminary indications are the gas reserves in Turkmenistan is around 38.4 TCM – far more than Iran and just 20% lower than Russia (largest gas reserves in the world). The British consultancy company <span style="font-weight:bold;">Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA)</span> presented the first results of its audit of Turkmen gas reserves.<br /><br />The biggest gas field discovery was in October 2008 – called the <span style="font-weight:bold;">Yoloten Osman deposits</span>. It is located near the Afghan – Turkmenistan border. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Turkmenistan has contracts to supply Russia with 50 bcm annually, China with 40 bcm and Iran with 8 bcm annually. The Russian energy giant GAZPROM requires this Turkmen gas to meet its export obligations in the European market, which accounts for 70% of the its total revenue. Gazprom sells 2/3 of Russia’s 550 bcm annual gas production in the rapidly growing domestic market. This compels it to secure Turkmen supplies to meet contracted European demands. </span><br /><br />Looks like Russia is all set to gobble up gas supplies from Turkmenistan – but look again. Gazprom’s agreement with Turkmengaz <span style="font-weight:bold;">DOES NOT INVOLVE YOLOTEN – OSMAN reserves</span>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Russia thought it held in its hand a chimera when it fancied that the July 25th Agreement put GAZPROM in charge of all of Turkmenistan’s exports. Surely, this is proving to be a misconception of Himalayan proportions.<br /></span><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">USA has deftly moved in to claim its stakes on the Yoloten-Osman gas reserves and for Russia the game starts again. </span><br /><br />Take a look at the map. <span style="font-weight:bold;">USA is well places in Afghanistan and can easily draw pipelines from Yoloten-Osman gas reserves through Afghanistan. And after that, it needs a warm water port to load it on super tankers.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The only viable ports are Karachi in Pakistan and also Gwadar port in Baluchistan area of Pakistan. Pakistan has built Gwadar with Chinese help to serve several purpose and one of them was access to Central Asian oil. USA is in no mood to see that this happens. Gwadar may well become the Chinese naval base in future and have eyeball to eyeball confrontation with the US naval fleet. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The other port is Chabahar in Iran. This has been built by India.</span> Look how <span style="font-weight:bold;">close</span> the ports of Gwadar and Chabahar are. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsqhCra76I/AAAAAAAAAGE/Hwr1471az38/s1600-h/chabahar_gwadar.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 275px; height: 318px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUsqhCra76I/AAAAAAAAAGE/Hwr1471az38/s400/chabahar_gwadar.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281361735165079458" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">We must not forget this part : </span><br /><br />When Afghanistan was under the control of Taliban, <span style="font-weight:bold;">USA was willing to shake hands with the devil – just to get access to pipelines through Afghanistan</span>. <span style="font-weight:bold;">UNOCAL the US company in the thick of pipeline planning through Afghanistan, was acting as the unofficial lobby for the Taliban and they were regularly briefed by CIA and Pakistan’s ISI. </span><br /><br />The then US Assistant Secy of State for South Asian Affairs, <span style="font-weight:bold;">ROBIN RAPHAEL went on to state – “The Taliban capture of Kabul is a POSITIVE STEP.”</span><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Another senior US Diplomat stated : “The Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did. There will be Aramco, pipelines, an Emir, no parliament and lots of shari’a law. We can live with that</span>.”<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">We must not lose sight of these statements.</span> These are not statements of two individuals - <span style="font-weight:bold;">they represent the USA mindset</span>. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The USA will have tolerated Taliban and Shari’a just to get gas pipelines and this approach has not changed.</span> USA tolerates the Saudi emirs. It may be a democracy itself, but in matters of business, it follows only one policy – “<span style="font-weight:bold;">ANYTHING GOES”</span> as long as its interests are met.<br /><br />USA is looking for <span style="font-weight:bold;">any stable partner that will guarantee it “peace” to “do business” in Afghanistan</span>. Hence, for India, this becomes very important –<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Who will guarantee this “Peaceful business environment in Afghanistan”</span>? <br /><br />Will it again be <span style="font-weight:bold;">Taliban + Pakistan</span> or will it be<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Pushtuns + Balochis through independent countries created out of parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan?</span> <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">If the USA game plan is the former – Taliban + Pakistan, we must ensure that this never comes into being. This will be disastrous for India. The latter, we can deal with and we will come to this part in the next article.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs5xN3cIsI/AAAAAAAAAHE/0Zf-1AXGvZQ/s1600-h/gas_pipelines.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 293px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs5xN3cIsI/AAAAAAAAAHE/0Zf-1AXGvZQ/s400/gas_pipelines.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281378505720603330" /></a><br /><br />The Central Asia as it will look in the future. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Afghanistan will play a pivotal pipeline role.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">India too has legitimate energy concerns but USA will see to it that the Iranian – Indian gas pipeline or even the TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) does not come into being.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs_jH2mSXI/AAAAAAAAAHk/SXEMmWqv36c/s1600-h/Iran-Pakistan-India+Map.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 375px; height: 330px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs_jH2mSXI/AAAAAAAAAHk/SXEMmWqv36c/s400/Iran-Pakistan-India+Map.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281384860658059634" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs-lgeuTQI/AAAAAAAAAHc/b8am2qO3sZI/s1600-h/oil-TAPI-pipeline.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 245px; height: 201px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rJE5EoUKGUI/SUs-lgeuTQI/AAAAAAAAAHc/b8am2qO3sZI/s400/oil-TAPI-pipeline.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5281383802116918530" /></a><br /> <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The US with its dipping wealth and high levels of corruption is unable to stake claim of any sort in Central Asia. It is clutching at the straws with BTC and Nabucco pipelines. It will surely seek to leverage its presence in Afghanistan on the Yolotan-Osman gas fields to salvage pride and standing in the region.</span><br /><br /><strong>THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE</strong>:<br /><br />USA is not going to give up without a fight. The attacks of NATO supply trucks recently in Pakistan has given planners in Washington time to formulate alternative strategies. The US has begun working on an entirely new supply route for Afghanistan which steers clear of Tehran, Moscow and Beijing and which, more importantly, not only dovetails but holds the prospects of augmenting and even strengthening the US's containment strategy towards Russia and Iran. <br /><br />Thus, the US has begun developing an <strong>altogether new land route through the southern Caucasus to Afghanistan, which doesn't exist at present.</strong> The US is working on the idea of <strong>ferrying cargo for Afghanistan via the Black Sea to the port of Poti in Georgia and then dispatching it through the territories of Georgia,Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. A branch line could also go from Georgia via Azerbaijan to the Turkmen-Afghan border.</strong> <br /><br />The project, if it materializes, will be a <strong>geopolitical coup </strong>- the biggest ever that Washington would have swung in post-Soviet Central Asia and the Caucasus. <strong>At one stroke, the US will be tying up military cooperation at the bilateral level with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.</strong> <br /><br />The US will have <strong>virtually dealt a blow to the Russia-led Collective Security Treat Organization (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSTO">CSTO</a>) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). </strong>Not only will the US have succeeded in <strong>keeping the CSTO and the SCO from poking their noses into the Afghan cauldron</strong>, it will also have made these organizations largely <strong>irrelevant to regional security when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan</strong>, the two key players in Central Asia, simply step out of the ambit of these organizations and directly deal with the US and NATO. <br /><br />Therefore, <strong>the US is making a determined bid to render Russian diplomacy on Afghanistan toothless.</strong> Interestingly, the US has allowed NATO at the same time to negotiate with Russia for transit route facilities, which Moscow will be hard-pressed to refuse.<br /><br />Washington has certainly done some <strong>smart thinking</strong>. It is having the best of both worlds - <strong>NATO taking help from Russia with the US at the same time puncturing the CSTO and undercutting Russian interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia. </strong><br /><br />Ever since the conflict in the Caucasus (Russia - Georgia conflict) in August, <strong>the US has maintained a continuous naval presence in the Black Sea</strong>, with regular port calls in Georgia. The indications are that the <strong>US is planning a carefully calibrated ground presence in Georgia as well. Talks are in the final stages for a US-Georgia Security and Military Agreement.</strong><br /><br /><strong>ENERGY CORRIDOR</strong>:<br /><br />Another dramatic fallout is that the proposed land route covering Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can also be <strong>easily converted into an energy corridor and become a Caspian oil and gas corridor bypassing Russia.</strong> Such a corridor has been a long-cherished dream for Washington. Furthermore, European countries will feel the imperative to agree to the US demand that the transit countries for the energy corridor are granted NATO protection in one form or the other. <strong>That, in turn, leads to NATO's expansion into the Caucasus and Central Asia. </strong><br /><br /><strong>RUSSIA</strong> is not expected to keep quiet and watch US intrusion into its former territories passively. The chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, <strong>General Nikolai Makarov</strong>, just about <strong>lifted the veil on the geopolitics of the Afghan war to let the world know that the Bush administration was having one last fling at the great game in Central Asia</strong>. Russia, it seems is about to transfer the <strong>S-300 missile defense system to Iran</strong>. S-300 is one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems capable of intercepting 100 ballistic missiles or aircraft at once, at low and high altitudes within a range of over 150 kilometers. As long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure put it, "<strong>If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran. This is a system that scares every Western air force</strong>." Russia stated that giving Iranians the S-300 will <strong>avoid "wars</strong>" in the region. More than US, <strong>the Israelis view this as a threat to their existence.</strong> the head of political-military policy in the Israeli Defense Ministry, <strong>Major General Amos Gilad</strong>, was traveling to Moscow with a <strong>demarche that Russia should not transfer S-300 to Iran</strong>. If things are not sorted out on the Iran front, <strong>Israel may have a go at Iran's suspected nuclear sites - ALONE</strong>.<br /><br />All this is expected <strong>to unfold in India's backyard and soon.</strong> <br /><br />The veiled threat of reopening the "<strong>Kashmir file</strong>", which is patently <strong>aimed at keeping India at bay</strong>, also serves a useful purpose. Plainly put, the <strong>US faces a real geopolitical challenge in Afghanistan if only a coalition of like-minded regional powers like Russia, China, Iran and India takes shape and these powers seriously begin exchanging notes about what the Afghan war has been about so far and where it is heading and what the US strategy aims at.</strong> So far, the US has succeeded in <strong>stalling such a process by sorting out these regional powers individually</strong>.<br /><br /><strong>Was India getting too close to Russia and Iran for USA's liking and was the Mumbai blast a timely reminder for India not to meddle in the "GREAT GAME"?</strong><br />===========================================<br /><br />While that was written in December 2009 - I cannot but feel the importance of last line today (28th May 2010) in light of <span style="font-weight:bold;">DAVID COLEMAN HEADLEY</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-8217792826308960702010-05-06T00:04:00.000-07:002010-05-06T21:34:03.468-07:00FAISAL SHAHZAD TIMES SQ BOMBER - A MERE SYMPTOM OF THE DISEASE THAT IS PAKISTAN<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S-JqO-iiyfI/AAAAAAAAA_s/9abSpfss1_c/s1600/Times+Sq.JPG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S-JqO-iiyfI/AAAAAAAAA_s/9abSpfss1_c/s320/Times+Sq.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5468049703119800818" /></a> TIMES SQ, NYC - PIC TAKEN MY ME
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<br />Another Pakistani wanted to be <span style="font-weight:bold;">the next Ramzi Yousef</span> - the first bomber of the World Trade Centre. He is <span style="font-weight:bold;">Faisal Shahzad, the son of Babur ul Haq, Air Vice Marshal of Pakistan</span> who retired from active military duty in 1992 and later joined the civil aviation industry.
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S-JqV6YG5QI/AAAAAAAAA_0/0TjBO1y6FfM/s1600/Times+Square+Car+Bomb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 288px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S-JqV6YG5QI/AAAAAAAAA_0/0TjBO1y6FfM/s400/Times+Square+Car+Bomb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5468049822261372162" /></a>
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<br />Last September ,Najibullah Zazi, a US legal resident of Afghan origin, was caught for plotting an attack on New York's subway system. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Stand alone operations will be the way forward for would be terrorists in the US to evade profiling.</span>
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<br />With a solid background, Shahzad is not your typical impoverished brainwashed terrorist from the rugged mountains or harsh hinterlands. These are city bred, educated – more in the mould of <span style="font-weight:bold;">Omar Saeed Sheikh.</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Zia ul Haq can take his bow today. His experiment to glue Pakistan through Islam has been singularly responsible for Islamizing the Pakistan Army, legitimising terrorist groups for the cause of “quom” and supplanting bigotry in education institutions across Pakistan – this we are talking of schools, colleges and institutions in cities and not madrassas. That madrassas have been breeding ground for insular, indoctrinated Islamic foot soldiers is a bygone conclusion. </span>
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<br />Shahzad’s generation grew up in a Pakistan <span style="font-weight:bold;">where alcohol had been banned and Islam had been forced into schools and communities as a doctrine and a national glue.</span>
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<br />“It’s not that they don’t speak English or aren’t skilled,” a Pakistani official said. “<span style="font-weight:bold;">But in their hearts and in their minds they reject the West. They can’t see a world where they live together; there’s only one way, one right way</span>.”
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<br />What it did, was bring the vision of Islam (that too wahabbi – deoband variety) into the mindset that found similarity across the typical militant, the fire-spewing mullah, the <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2008/12/isi-al-qaeda-terror-groups-we-are.html">Pakistan Army</a></span> and across the average citizen bred on Urdu language papers.
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<br />There were sane voices like Pervez Hoodbhoy – but they get drowned out these days, a few get beaten up in college premises if they even question student bodies affiliated to the terror groups. <span style="font-weight:bold;">What is fascinating to note is that these student bodies that are affiliated to banned terror organizations are being headed by boys whose fathers have a military background.
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<br />“Nuclear weapons are only as safe as the people who handle them,” <span style="font-weight:bold;"<a href="http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?240640">>Pervez Hoodbhoy</a></span>, an eminent nuclear physicist in Pakistan, said in a talk last summer at a Nation and Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy forum in New York. For more than two decades, Hoodbhoy said, <span style="font-weight:bold;">“the Pakistan Army has been recruiting on the basis of faithfulness to Islam. As a consequence, there is now a different character present among Army officers and ordinary soldiers. There are half a dozen scenarios that one can imagine</span>.” There was no proof either that the most dire scenarios would be realized or that the arsenal was safe, he said.
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<br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Is it any more of a surprise to hear stories like this:</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1997: DEA agents arrested a senior Pakistan Air Force officer trying to sell 2 kgs of heroin in a Mc Donald’s outlet in New York City.
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<br />In the same year a Thai diplomat got nabbed carrying two suitcases filled with heroin into the UK. He told his British interrogators that he picked up the suitcases at an ISI safe house !!
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<br />1983: A young Pakistani smuggler was arrested in Norway carrying 3.5 kgs of crystal heroin. He was Hamid Hasnain, President Zia ul Haq’s personal banker.
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<br />June 1986: A Pakistani Army Major was arrested while driving from Peshawar to Karachi carrying 220 kgs of high grade heroin. Two months later an Air Force officer was caught with a similar amount and he claimed it was his 5th mission!
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<br />In both cases the Pakistan military swiftly removed its men from police custody and before any investigations could start, let alone trials, the two officers made highly suspicious “escape”.
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<br />1988: President Zia ul Haq’s pilot Maj. Farooq Hamid was arrested in drug charges and released. At that time Lt. Gen Fazle Haq was known as Pakistan’s Noriega for providing protection to the heroin trade.</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://thefinancialdaily.com/newsdetail/122537.aspx">Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi</a></span> termed abortive New York bombing as a blowback of US drone attacks along Pak-Afghan border. "This is a blowback. This is a reaction. This is retaliation. And you could expect that. Let's not be naive. They're not going to sort of sit and welcome you eliminate them. They're going to fight back."
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<br />Mehmood Querishi almost ends up <span style="font-weight:bold;">justifying the attacks.</span> In the hearts and minds of the Islamists across Pakistan – they would have cheered had the bomb gone off and killed scores of “infidels” in their land.
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<br />S<span style="font-weight:bold;">omething ominous is happening in Pakistan. With 12 hours of power cuts a day, no industry to feed the nation, ethno-linguistic groups clamouring for more autonomy, Pakistan Army is reviving the Islamist parties again to keep the disenchantment of the population under check and keep the spittist entho-linguistic groups under control and glue of Islam. This, in turn, is legitimizing terrorism and making Pakistan a terrorist spewing nation. </span>
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<br />Faizal Shahzad is a case in point. I<span style="font-weight:bold;">n a 6 month crash course he has become a terrorist well versed in the art of wiring and triggering explosives. It is this asymmetric force that the world will have to counter going forward.
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<br />The US is relying on the Pakistan Army. <span style="font-weight:bold;">But it is the Pakistan Army that is fuelling this Islamic resurgence. It knows no other way – their top officers are brainwashed Islamic bigots. </span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">What then is the goal?</span>
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Simple. Establish Sharia in Pakistan (and then the globe!!) – not what the founding father of Pakistan wanted. Islamists want to replace secular and traditional law and customs in Pakistan's tribal areas with their version of the sharia. This goal, which they share with religious political parties such as Jamat-e-Islami, is working for a total transformation of society. It calls for elimination of music, art, entertainment, and all manifestations of modernity and Westernism. </span>
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<br />Recently the assassination of ex – ISI officer Khalid Khwaja darkened the Islamists agenda further inside Pakistan. He was, after all, one of the founding members of the Taliban movement. He died at the hands of the Taliban who thought him to be a CIA stooge. A few weeks before his abduction, he met <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=28590">Taliban leader Waliur Rehman Mehsud</a></span> in North Waziristan and handed over a list of some militants and alleged that they were working for Indian spy agencies. Within a few hours of that meeting, the vehicle of Waliur Rehman was attacked by a US drone but the Taliban commander survived. Waliur Rehman immediately informed the Punjabi Taliban to be careful about Khwaja, who then decided to trap him.
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<br />Interestingly <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GF22Df04.html">Khalid Khwaja introduced Nawaz Sharif to Osama bin Laden</a></span>. In an interview Khwaja stated: The most historic was the meeting in the Green Palace Hotel in Medina between Nawaz Sharif, Osama and myself. Osama asked Nawaz to devote himself to "jihad in Kashmir". Nawaz immediately said, "I love jihad." Osama smiled, and then stood up from his chair and went to a nearby pillar and said. "Yes, you may love jihad, but your love for jihad is this much." He then pointed to a small portion of the pillar. "Your love for children is this much," he said, pointing to a larger portion of the pillar. "And your love for your parents is this much," he continued, pointing towards the largest portion. "I agree that you love jihad, but this love is the smallest in proportion to your other affections in life."
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<br />These sorts of arguments were beyond Nawaz Sharif's comprehension and he kept asking me. "Manya key nai manya?" [Agreed or not?] He was looking for a Rs500 million [US$8.4 million at today's rate] grant from Osama. Though Osama gave a comparatively smaller amount, the landmark thing he secured for Nawaz Sharif was a meeting with the [Saudi] royal family, which gave Nawaz Sharif a lot of political support, and it remained till he was dislodged [as premier] by General Pervez Musharraf [in a coup in 1999]. Saudi Arabia arranged for his release and his safe exit to Saudi Arabia.
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<br />Interestingly, Pervez Musharraf, now in Britain in a de facto exile, stated that Nawaz Sharif is a Taliban in disguise.
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<br />In Pakistan, who is an Islamist, who is a Taliban in disguise or who is with Al-Qaeda is now getting merged and difficult to distinguish. The nation is sinking into an abyss of hatred for all things un-Islamic (strictest version). The nation has failed to provide its citizens with any positivity and employment or a decent standard of living. It lives by nurturing hatred for everyone else, harsh form of Islam to glue an ever fractious society – a doomsday country about to implode in our lifetime.
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<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Faizal Shahzad is a symptom – a by product of the disease that Pakistan has managed to infect itself with. </span>
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<br />And<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Hakemullah Mehsud</span>, notwithstanding <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/national/hakeemullah-writes-letter-to-afias-sister-550">his letter of support to Dr Afia Siddiquis’s sister</a></span> vowing a spectacular response inside US, will always find able bodies like Faizal dime a dozen inside US and Europe.
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<br />It is my "guess" that the wired money from Dubai to fund the SUV purchase that was used in the abortive attempt in Times Sq. will give useful leads - which I feel the US will "hide" from the public eye, but use it to good use in its negotiations with Pakistan behind closed doors.</span>
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<br />Expect more Faizal Shahzads.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> The next bomber in USA will most probably be an academician, living long under the radar, in the US.</span>
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<br />It is because the Islamists did see the decline in superpower status of the US coming. They calculated that US derives its power from dollar which is a function of purchasing power of the citizens and a base currency specially for oil&gas. It is this dollar that fuels the military machine. In this downturn, what better way to hurt the investment sentiment and erode the purchasing power - than to stage a few spectacular bombings inside the US and cause the dollar to erode faster - <span style="font-weight:bold;">leading to a faster decline of the superpower! While others keep plugging away to de-roster the US dollar as reserve currency !!</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-9162617801567053952010-05-03T21:10:00.000-07:002010-05-04T03:15:50.221-07:00THE NETHERLANDSBack from a hectic work schedule in the Netherlands - the ash clouds from Iceland trying to delay the departure. Managed to take a few snapshots from my Blackberry (hence pics are <span style="font-weight:bold;">not</span> of a good quality). Will get back to "<span style="font-weight:bold;">normal</span>" postings soon !!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">DEN HAAG</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-gwP4prgI/AAAAAAAAA_c/M4fJSeyooOs/s1600/Den+Haag+1.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-gwP4prgI/AAAAAAAAA_c/M4fJSeyooOs/s400/Den+Haag+1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467265223409380866" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">THE GIRL WITH THE PEARL</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-g-X9nBXI/AAAAAAAAA_k/AJV1JBpxIxg/s1600/Den+Haag+Museum.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-g-X9nBXI/AAAAAAAAA_k/AJV1JBpxIxg/s400/Den+Haag+Museum.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467265466095830386" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">DEN HAAG CENTRAAL</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-ggotB9rI/AAAAAAAAA_U/yTPR0-IEY9c/s1600/Den+Haag.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-ggotB9rI/AAAAAAAAA_U/yTPR0-IEY9c/s400/Den+Haag.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467264955193620146" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">CHICKEN & BROCOLLI </span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-gQIYsDKI/AAAAAAAAA_M/7ku0rwpR668/s1600/Chicken_Brocolli.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-gQIYsDKI/AAAAAAAAA_M/7ku0rwpR668/s400/Chicken_Brocolli.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467264671640456354" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TULIPS - KUKENHOF</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-f-JSm04I/AAAAAAAAA_E/ZDXBcMHSpW0/s1600/Tulips1_Kukenhof.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-f-JSm04I/AAAAAAAAA_E/ZDXBcMHSpW0/s400/Tulips1_Kukenhof.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467264362645738370" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TULIPS (AGAIN)- KUKENHOF</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-fv-74ntI/AAAAAAAAA-8/58YM2fVMglY/s1600/Tulips_Kukenhof.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-fv-74ntI/AAAAAAAAA-8/58YM2fVMglY/s400/Tulips_Kukenhof.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467264119347912402" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">AMSTERDAM</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-ev8hLa9I/AAAAAAAAA-k/x0jsCNdFJxY/s1600/Amsterdam_canal.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-ev8hLa9I/AAAAAAAAA-k/x0jsCNdFJxY/s400/Amsterdam_canal.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467263019187399634" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">GUINNESS:</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-fbWpiBnI/AAAAAAAAA-0/BcoRL1LdSMk/s1600/Guiness.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 400px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S9-fbWpiBnI/AAAAAAAAA-0/BcoRL1LdSMk/s400/Guiness.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467263764936132210" /></a>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4226785600749499676.post-22195849489821347872010-04-14T04:07:00.000-07:002010-04-14T04:35:55.994-07:00KASHMIR : THE WAR OF ARMS & HEARTS<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WiyV3bstI/AAAAAAAAA-E/JskcE0LuCCE/s1600/maloy_krishna_dhar.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 200px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WiyV3bstI/AAAAAAAAA-E/JskcE0LuCCE/s320/maloy_krishna_dhar.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5459949109003399890" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">This article is written by Maloy Krishna Dhar, ace spymaster.</span> Received permission to reproduce article in my blog. If you have to know about Mr MK Dhar, just read this article: <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://sify.com/news/my-friend-the-rebel-maloy-krishna-dhar-news-columns-jegq8dfjiac.html">My friend the rebel, Maloy Krishna Dhar</a>.</span><br /><br />The original article appeared in his page: <span style="font-weight:bold;"><a href="http://maloykrishnadhar.com/">maloykrishnadhar.com</a></span><br /><br />THE ARTICLE:<br /><br />Most wars are uncertain, some leading to victory, some in defeat. But sustained trans-border proxy war and jihad thrusts are more uncertain. It is possible to find our lasting solution to ethnic unrest, which is political in nature, <span style="font-weight:bold;">but it is difficult to vanquish the enemy which directs the proxy war sitting in comfort of war rooms.</span> The jihadis and terrorists bred by them taking advantage of certain unsolved legacy of history and religious susceptibilities are also mushrooming enemies, who are mostly invisible and rarely come under the hairpin of the guns of the defending soldiers. There is another war to win besides the military engagement; the war of minds.<br /><br />So much has been written on Kashmir problem and Pakistan inspired and engineered jihad thrusts and terrorists actions that no new furrow can be cut by following the old grounds. It is better to focus on the players and the end results they expect and portray what the people of Indian Kashmir aspire for. Before we look into the dark areas of jihad campaign and internal failures let us have a look at the physical status of Kashmir, as it was thrown in the tailspin of partition and <span style="font-weight:bold;">deceitful occupation by Pakistan.</span><br /><br />Physical Geopolitical Status of Kashmir<br /><br />China and Pakistan occupied Kashmir<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WjWiwmS1I/AAAAAAAAA-U/UrIoYagBNwk/s1600/china_pakistan_occupied_kashmir.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 198px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WjWiwmS1I/AAAAAAAAA-U/UrIoYagBNwk/s400/china_pakistan_occupied_kashmir.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5459949730939685714" /></a><br /><br />Green Pins Pakistan Occupied, Red Pins China Occupied (click to enlarge)<br /><br />In India there exist some misperceptions that Abdullah and Nehru’s Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Leh constitute the geopolitical status of Kashmir. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Historically speaking the entire Northern Area of J&K ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh was annexed by Pakistan in collaboration with the British officers posted there as administrative and military heads.</span> The area known as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) or Azad Kashmir was annexed by Pakistan as Sheikh Abdullah and <span style="font-weight:bold;">Nehru</span> were not determined to allow the Indian army to chase away the Pakistani aggressors beyond Muzaffarabad. The sordid history of that episode has been bleeding India incessantly since 1948. This is an instance of <span style="font-weight:bold;">effeminate foreign policy</span> and inexcusable intervention in the war plan of the Indian army; a greater colossal blunder than emasculation of the armed forces between 1950 and 1962 that encouraged China to humiliate India and encouraged Pakistan to attack India again in 1965. Leadership failure has chained the country almost permanently to the Kashmir quagmire <span style="font-weight:bold;">and possible future wars with China and Pakistan</span>.<br /><br />When India talks of Composite dialogue it probably means a fresh legalized partition of Kashmir along the Line of Control. <span style="font-weight:bold;">When Pakistan talks about Comprehensive dialogue it means total vacation of Kashmir by India</span>-ultimate fulfillment of the agenda of partition. When the Indian Kashmiri separatists talk about solution, some insist on merger with Pakistan and some others talk of independence-sans Indian and Pakistani interference; a South Asian Switzerland. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Some politicians in India (including the Congress and Sangh Parivar Brigade) talk in term of restoration of the entire Kashmir to India</span>. In the case of <span style="font-weight:bold;">Congress this is a mere populist posture</span>; not even a diplomatic approach and strategic formulation. The Sangh Parivar reflects common Indian sentiment but even during the BJP rule it did not make headway diplomatically, least to speak of strategically. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The other political forces are busy with bread and butter and pocketfuls of people’s money.</span> Existence of live contradiction in perception in India has contributed to the failure of structuring a broader bilateral and international diplomatic policy. Since military solution is not on the anvil the Indian forces are busy with containing the jihadi thrusts from Pakistan, which has often spilled over the borders of Kashmir and affected various parts of India. India’s failure on diplomatic as well as military fronts has given excessive leeway to the Pakistani Establishment and certain disgruntled elements in Indian Kashmir to intensify the jihad campaign. Let us examine the intricate machinery that Pakistan employ to bleed India.<br /><br />It is necessary to analyze how Pakistan views and treats the occupied portions of Jammu and Kashmir. The so-called Azad Kashmir is totally under the control of Pakistan and ISI and Islambad’s will determine all the parameters of election to the legislative assembly, appointment of Governor and ministers. Most key officers are exported from Punjab and few key departments are held by serving or retired officers of the armed forces. <span style="font-weight:bold;">In all practical considerations Azad Kashmir is an extended part of Pakistani Punjab, acting as a buffer and geostrategic depth for key cities of Pakistan which are at a vulnerable distance from Indian borders and even short range missile strike.</span><br /><br />Before we proceed further it is necessary to discuss with the readers <span style="font-weight:bold;">two </span>important aspects concerning the Kashmir and general proxy war conducted by Pakistan. India is the only nation against whom hostile neighbours engage in proxy war by supporting the ethnic and ideological insurgents and the jihadi groups inspired by religious fanaticism which has become an integral part of the state policy of Pakistan. This requires some illustration:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WjJSPUxnI/AAAAAAAAA-M/fGt3mmkM2Kk/s1600/jihad_machinery_pakistan.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 224px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8WjJSPUxnI/AAAAAAAAA-M/fGt3mmkM2Kk/s400/jihad_machinery_pakistan.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5459949503166858866" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Jihad Machinery of Pakistan</span><br /><br />At the root of the proxy war problem is the psyche of the leaders and elites of Pakistan now embodied in the highest command of Pakistan army, considered as the soul of Pakistan. It is like the fabled witch: whose soul lives in a parrot or a maynah. Till that bird is killed the evil soul cannot be subdued. India achieved that goal once but allowed the opportunity to emasculate the Pakistan army through the instrument of Simla Agreement 1972, which made the LoC permanent.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The controls the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Joint Intelligence North (JIN) conducts proxy war in Kashmir and the Joint Intelligence Miscellaneous (JIM) jointly with the JIN and JIX conduct jihad warfare in rest of India.</span><br /><br />At present the <span style="font-weight:bold;">main tool of operation is the Markaz- ud- Dawa al Irshad</span>, the master terrorist organization located at Muridke near Lahore. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The main operational tool of the Markaz and the ISI is Lashkar-e-Taiba and Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami (HuJI)</span>. The Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Allah) was established by <span style="font-weight:bold;">Hafiz Mohammad Ibrahim and Zafar Iqbal in May 1990 under patronage of the ISI</span>. Initially the volunteers were trained in NWFP and Afghanistan. Later the training facilities were shifted by the ISI in PoK. The head quarter of the Lashkar (Markaz-e-Lashkar) is situated at Muridke. This force, armed to the teeth by Pakistan army, and numbering about 3500 recruits (figure varies) <span style="font-weight:bold;">is now totally under control of the ISI and Pakistan army.</span> The Lashkar has not been allowed to mingle with Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan and Al Qaeda factions. However, the Lashkar is utilized mainly in Indian Kashmir, other parts of India on its own or in tandem with United Jihad Council of Syed Salahuddin and a major faction of the HuJI.<br /><br />HuJI was formed in 1984 by Fazalur Rehman Khalil and Qari Saifullah Akhtar, as the first Pakistan-based jihadist – Islamic terrorist – outfit to fight alongside the Afghan mujahideens against the USSR. Khalil later broke away to form his own group Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA), which later emerged as the most feared militant organization in Kashmir. After the Afghan war this group was reassembled as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen after HuA was banned by the USA. The HuJI was directed by the ISI to export jihad to the Indian state of J & K. <span style="font-weight:bold;">HuJI’s footprint was extended to Bangladesh when the Bangladesh unit was established in 1992, with direct assistance from Osama bin Laden. Illyas Kashmiri group of the HuJI is aligned with both Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Qaeda. Both HuJI and Lashkar are encouraged to expand operation in Chechnya, Dagestan and other parts of the Russian federation.</span><br /><br />The <span style="font-weight:bold;">United Jihad Council</span> or Muttahida Jihad Council was formed in 1994 of which <span style="font-weight:bold;">Hizb-ul-Mujahideen</span> is the largest and dominating component consisting members from Indian Kashmir and Pakistan. At present the ration of Indian and Pakistani component is 35%-55%. Headquarter of the Council is located near Muzaffarabad and <span style="font-weight:bold;">all logistics are supplied by Pakistan army and the ISI</span>. The member components are: <span style="font-weight:bold;">Harakat-ul-Ansar, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen, Al-Jihad, Al-Barq, Al-Badr, Ikhwan-ul-Mussalmin, Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen</span>. Around 1999, as many as fifteen organizations were affiliated with the Council. <span style="font-weight:bold;">However, the most important components are Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Al-Badr and Tehrik-e-Jihad. </span>Most of these are recognized as terrorist organizations by the US and the UN. The US recently urged Pakistan to eliminate the Lashkar <span style="font-weight:bold;">as the high profile attack on Mumbai (26/11) was jointly organized by Pakistan army, ISI, Markaz ud Dawa and the Lashkar. David Coleman Headly Tahawwur Rana now under trial in USA is also connected with Lashkar and Illiyas Kashmiri. Their links with serving Pakistan army officers have been well established by the US investigators.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Osama bin Laden’s Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan have so far not directly operated in Kashmir</span>. However, <span style="font-weight:bold;">Illyas Kashmiri, a Mirpuri PoK national had joined the Special Services group (SSG), a commando force of Pakistan. He later, under ISI direction trained the HuJI and the Afghan mujahideen. Later he broke away with the parent body of HuJI and floated his own outfit Brigade 313</span>. It is affiliated to Al Qaeda and he often directs some of the Lashkar operations. Once he was arrested in India but escaped from jail. Later he was arrested on suspicion of attempt on life of President Musharraf for attack on the Lal Masjid. Kashmiri’s force often independently operates in Indian Kashmir and <span style="font-weight:bold;">he was one of the masterminds of the 26/11 attack on Mumbai.</span><br /><br />There are satellite images and other ground inputs about patronization of the jihad forces by Pakistan. Till 3 months back <span style="font-weight:bold;">Brigadier Rathore was in charge of the Jihad formations and training and arming them with assistance from retired army and ISI officers. It is understood that a new brigadier is in charge of Pakistan’s Kashmir and India operations.</span> Earlier nearly 18 camps were located in NWFP and Punjab. These camps have now been shifted to PoK. According to Indian sources <span style="font-weight:bold;">there are 42 live camps in PoK where about 2500 terrorists are undergoing training.</span> The illustration below would indicate training facilities and main infiltration points:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan to Kashmir infiltration routes</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8Wjl1L7cpI/AAAAAAAAA-c/rQn-z9nolpY/s1600/pakistan_kashmir_infiltration_routes.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 198px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TlX8EZcNmlk/S8Wjl1L7cpI/AAAAAAAAA-c/rQn-z9nolpY/s400/pakistan_kashmir_infiltration_routes.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5459949993584194194" /></a><br /><br />Red-Camps; Yellow-Infiltration routes; Illustrative<br /><br />Having discussed the basics let us understand what is Pakistan doing with the PoK and Northern Areas, comprising Gilgit, Baltistan, Skardu etc areas. Understanding POK and Northern Area’s problems would require a brief journey through the pages of history between 1935 and 1947. Sheikh Abdullah and Chaudhri Ghulam Abbas of Muslim Conference had spearheaded the movement for greater devolution of power to the subjects through elected representatives. The vortex of One Nation independence movement spearheaded by the Congress and the creation of Pakistan on the basis of presumed Two Nation theory had also affected the leadership of the Muslim Conference. Sheikh Abdullah charmed Nehru and Newton’s 3rd Law propelled Ghulam Abbas to the lap of Jinnah. These two leaders were willing to arrive at a compromise with<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Sir Gopalswami Ayeangar, than PM of J&K.</span> The two Kashmiri rivals were united on the issue of opposition to the Maharaja but disunited on most other issues. Their ego bags had no space in a common political geography. In Nehru’s perception Sheikh wielded the key to Kashmir problem. Congress did not consider it necessary to tackle the Maharaja soon after 1940, when it was clear that Jinnah would not stop at anything but partition of India. He wanted his roast to be cooked according to his specifications with Kashmir thrown in as top dressing. Pakistan had not left anything to be decided by the departing British power.<br /><br />Pakistan Occupied Kashmir comprises of the Muzaffarabad region, adjacent to Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, Manshera and Gujrat etc strategic border areas of Pakistan. <span style="font-weight:bold;">By grabbing these areas in 1948 Pakistan acquired a strategic depth against India’s conventional war thrusts. By technically integrating the POK areas with its main territory Pakistan had flagrantly violated the UN resolutions, Tashkent and Simla Agreements. Pundits have elaborated these aspects of Pakistan’s perfidious activities.<br /></span><br />Indian mind is not trained to think in terms of understanding that vast areas of the kingdom of Kashmir, besides the Muzaffarabad region described by Pakistan as Azad Kashmir, are under Pakistani and Chinese occupation. These territories of the kingdom of Kashmir, which merged into India, have almost disappeared from Indian memory and are considered as <span style="font-weight:bold;">‘technical cartographic definition.’</span><br /><br />The political class and the governments in India have so far not made average Indians aware of the fact that<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Pakistan had ceded 1/3rd of J&K to China on the strength of assumed parameter ‘the defence of which (the ceded area) is under the actual control of Pakistan.’ What follows from this assumption? Pakistan reserves the right to cede the Gilgit and Baltistan areas of Northern Areas of J&K to China or America on some other strategic consideration on the same plea of de facto military presence in the area.</span> It’s as bad in international law as is the forcible amalgamation of parts of Gaza strip, Western Bank and Golan Heights by Israel. While Pakistan joins voice with other Arab governments to condemn Israel, it has no explanation to give to the people of J&K and India; the legal inheritor of the territories of the Maharaja of J&K. India has also not kept the item on diplomatic dinner plates in Agra, Delhi and Islamabad. The present foreign office diplomats and Track II and III diplomats are also not adding the POK and the Northern Areas including Areas Ceded to China to the menu card.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">A detailed reading of the land mass transferred to China in 1963 indicate that Pakistan was preparing the grounds for a decisive round of war against India in 1965 with tacit Chinese help and silent nod from America, which was using Pakistan to build a bridge with China.</span> After the devastating defeat in 1962 a stupefied India could do very little to stop China from grabbing a territory through deceit. Article Two of the treaty delineates the ceded area, which include important Passes like Mintake Daban, Parpik, Yutr Daban, Muztagh, and Karakoram.<br /><br />The Gilgit and Baltistan tracts of the kingdom of Kashmir are known as Northern Areas. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Maharaja of Kashmir occupied the territory in 1842 and the British recognized his sovereignty in 1846. Through a recorded history of turmoil, finally, in 1935 the British Crown assumed firm control of Gilgit Agency through a lease agreement. However, the lease did not terminate sovereignty of the Maharaja. During transfer of power, The British did not consider either India or Pakistan as legal claimants of this territory. Paramountcy was reverted to Srinagar durbar and only the Maharaja had legal rights to transfer that territory either to India or Pakistan.</span><br /><br />Pakistan repeated the show it staged by stoking rebellion in Poonch, Mirpur and Kotli. It started negotiating with the figurehead rulers of the area and the Sirdars. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Mostly Muslims, the Gilgit Scout was also influenced by Pakistan through local religious leaders, Sirdars and potentates. Like the ‘Provisional Government of POK’ a move was mooted by Shah Rias Khan to set up ‘The Gilgit Republic.’</span> History bears evidence of Pakistani connectivity of Rias Khan. Delhi or Srinagar could do precious little to intervene decisively<span style="font-weight:bold;"> as pro-Pakistani British officers controlled military balance.</span> William Brown, the British major in charge of the forces of the Maharaja in his memoir ‘The Gilgit Rebellion’ mentioned that taking advantage of the withdrawal of the British the Pakistani authorities incited the Muslim tribesmen and arranged their congregation in Gilgit town. <span style="font-weight:bold;">They were incited to kill Hindu and Sikh officials and other J&K citizen. Absence of authority, especially inability and helplessness of the circumstances of India allured Pakistan to incite Poonch, Mirpur type rebellion under leaders like Rais Khan.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Major Brown was the only military authority in Gilgit and his colleague Captain Mathieson was in Chilas. Brown put the Crown representative Ghansara Singh and his associates under house arrest on the ruse of protecting them. Major Brown came under severe pressure from his superior Col. Bacon at Peshawar and Col. Iskander Mirza, Defence Secretary of Pakistan to declare merger of Gilgit Agency with Pakistan. On the morning of 4th November, he raised Pakistan flag over his headquarters.</span><br /><br />The area is divided into five administrative units: Gilgit, Baltistan, Diamir, Ghizer and Ghanche. A population of nearly 2 million inhabits the 72,495 square kilometer geographical spread. The main ethnic groups are Baltis (Balawaris), Yashkuns, Mughals, Kashmiris, Pathans, Ladakhis, Tajik, Uzbek, Mongol, Turkmen and population of Greek origin. Though Pakistan is trying to impose Urdu in the Northern Areas the main languages spoken are, Balti, Shina, Brushaski, Khawer, Wakhi, Turki, Tibeti, and Pushto.<br /><br />Religious sect-wise breakdown of population in the Northern Areas is:<br /><br />Gilgit – 60% Shia, <span style="font-weight:bold;">40% Sunni (imported from Pakistan)</span>; Nagar- 100% Shia, Hunza, Yasin, Punial, Ishkoman, Gupis- 100% Ismaili (Aghakhani), Chilas, Darel, 100% Sunni, Astor- 90% Sunni and 10% Shia and Baltistan- 98% Shia and 2 % Sunni. There are about 10% Nurbakshis in the Northern Areas. The Sunnis are predominantly Hanafi with sprinkles of Maliki and Hanbali sects.<br /><br />While the PoK was granted some charade of self rule the Northern Areas were so far directly administered by Islamabad. Discontent at growing Punjabi domination and lack of any kind of self-rule had given rise to the demand of independent Balawaristan by some of the protagonists.<br /><br />The Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2009, replaces the Northern Areas Legal Framework Order of 1994. Under the order, Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly will formulate its own Rules of Procedures, while legislation on 61 subjects will be done by a council and an assembly in their respective jurisdictions. The region will not be regarded as a province, as the self-rule has been granted on the pattern of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. The self-governance to Gilgit-Baltistan will have no impact on the future of Kashmir. The Legislative Assembly will elect its own Chief Minister; however, the Legislative Assembly of Gilgit-Baltistan would have no control over defence and treasury. The elections in the areas would be held in October this year. Out of 36 assembly members, 24 would be elected directly whereas seven seats each would be reserved for the technocrats.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan views this as a landmark step towards integration of the occupied Northern Areas with rest of the country. In their view:</span> The declaration of “Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order 2009” has not only fulfilled the longstanding demand of the people of Northern Areas for self-rule on the lines of AJK type of governance, it will also frustrate the nefarious designs of Indian external strike in Northern Areas. It is beyond doubt that the Northern Areas of Pakistan lag behind the rest of the provinces of the country. Sectarianism, poverty, Indian connection, weak judicial system, burgeoning of small arms, and separatist forces like Balawaristan National Front (BNF), Karakoram National Movement (KNM), are some of the major concerns that had alarmed the NA Administration. Some of the demands put across by the people of Pakistan’s mountainous Northern Areas were: (1) Self-governance like that of AJK or as a province. (2) Fully autonomous Legislative Assembly with Chief Minister. (3) Set up an independent High Court and Supreme Court. (4) The reforms in education set-up, e.g., affairs of Karakoram International University to be straightened, quota for Gilgit Baltistan be separated from FATA, setting-up of Medical College and Engineering College. (5) The Land allotment to non-locals, NGOs and foreign Govts should be banned. (6) Economic Developmental Package for the uplift of common people. (7) Control over the sectarianism. This is far from the truth prevailing on the grounds. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Discontent and preparations for armed conflict with Pakistan are growing in the Northern Areas which prompted Islamabad to depute two additional brigades and a large contingent of the ISI and the SSG.</span><br /><br />Another issue that is disturbing India is Chinese intrusion both in PoK and the Northern Areas for execution of certain hydroelectric and other infrastructural projects. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Pakistan and China signed a memorandum of understanding for construction of Bunji dam in Northern Areas in August 2009. </span>The agreement was signed on behalf of Pakistan’s ministry of water and power and China’s Three Gorges Project Corporation by the Chairman, Board of Investment, Saleem Mandviwala, and Li Yang’an. The ceremony was attended by President Asif Zardari.<br /><br />“Political and administrative reforms recently announced by Pakistan for its Northern Areas, known officially as Gilgit Baltistan, are basically aimed at providing better security cover for the rapidly growing Chinese interests in the territory. Gilgit, the Northern Areas capital, has acquired the status of a gateway to Central Asia in the wake of a Pakistan-China barter trade agreement and accords with Central Asian states. <span style="font-weight:bold;">China has invested heavily in a range of projects in the Northern Areas and is poised to launch several new projects, particularly in power sector, costing billions of dollars.</span> In August 2009, during a visit by Zardari to China, the countries signed a memorandum of understanding on construction of a hydro-power station at Bunji, in Gilgit Baltistan. The countries also agreed in June to allow market access for bilateral trade in 11 services sectors and to intensify their efforts to increase border trade, which constitutes merely 5% of their overall trade, and takes place through the Karakoram Highway (KKH), whose repair and upgrade is likely to be completed by 2012.” Syed Fazl-e-Hyder, in Pakistan acts to guard Chinese interests; Asia Times, September 4, 2009.<br /><br />India has recently lodged protest with China for undertaking works in the Northern Areas and PoK as these areas are legally parts of India and Pakistan has no right to invite China to carry out development works in Indian Territory without Delhi’s concurrence. The Indian foreign minister is likely to take up this issue with his Chinese counterparts during his forthcoming visit to Beijing.<br /><br />Having surveyed the panorama of geopolitical status <span style="font-weight:bold;">let us examine if India can minimize or prevent Pakistan from launching jihad attacks from its soil against Kashmir in particular and India in general.</span><br /><br />Militarily it is not impossible to make precision strike against the terrorist camps in PoK and Punjab. India has the technology to gather intelligence data about these camps. The moot point is can India be determined to launch Israeli like attack and US like strikes? There are risks of a limited war between India and Pakistan that may <span style="font-weight:bold;">not</span> turn nuclear. Would the USA support India against the known proclivity of China and Pakistan to internationalize the issue. India does not have sufficient drones to mount precision attack. Conventional advanced bombers and warhorses are not suitable for such attack. Moreover, India, at the 62nd year of proxy war<span style="font-weight:bold;"> must also evolve a policy to hit Pakistan decisively.</span> This would require a comprehensive policy.<span style="font-weight:bold;"> Some political parties, which depend on Muslim vote, may not agree for a Bangladesh like operation</span>. However, forward proactive policy remains the best option provided the political policy makers are committed to the cause and the armed forces are given appropriate mandate.<br /><br />In the face of such impasse India can at best do firefighting in Kashmir and other places. <span style="font-weight:bold;">Prolonged fire fighting generates big problem. Such operations alienate the people, allegation of human rights violation are pitted on flimsiest ground.</span> Often excesses are committed by security personnel under conditions of severe stress. This is an intractable situation in an operational theatre. The militants try to terrorize the people to submission and in the process attack vulnerable targets. The security forces are compelled to operate in the populated villages that create hatred and aversion amongst the people. A defensive anti-guerrilla warfare suffers from such inbuilt disadvantages. However, record of the Indian security forces is more on the brighter side that than any isolated dark spots are left by rare acts of callousness.<br /><br />India has managed to maintain a democratic political structure in the state. Despite Pakistan inspired election boycott by the militants and the separatist Hurriyat Conference etc<span style="font-weight:bold;"> the people of the state exhibited indomitable courage to turn up to cast vote; nearly 45-60% in different booths.</span> It may be recalled that 40% voting is considered moderately high in disturbed situation. The common Kashmiri pine for peace and stability. They have understood that Pakistan is using them for scoring geostrategic and geopolitical victory over India. By involving China, Pakistan is adding international dimension to the conflict. However, there is no organized political platform that can focus on the aversion of the people towards Pakistani interference. Even the leaders of certain parties which talk in ambivalent manner understand that their future is tied up to India and they cannot enjoy freedom in Pakistan. Most of them use shrill anti-India campaign to remain politically relevant.<br /><br />Corruption in public offices has affected the common people adversely. No job can be done without paying the local officers and political leaders. Even for agricultural loan and loans for fruit orchards are available against a premium cut. High cost of implements, pesticide and other inputs has impeded agricultural growth. On top of it the campaign for potato cultivation and cultivation of green vegetables has not been well accepted by villagers. Crop insurance against adverse weather is not available as yet. Introduction of terrace cultivation with adequate irrigation facility is yet to pick up in the lower reach hill areas.<br />Because of lack of industrial activity and other job opportunities the youth mostly remain unemployed and some of them migrate to other states for running carpet and handloom business. The handloom and handicraft industry are in shambles because of high cost of inputs and paucity of subsidy and grant. There is high potential for sheep breeding and wool harvesting industry, poultry and dairy projects. If properly encouraged by importing high yielding cows and introducing mechanized process Kashmir can emerge as the cheese capital of India. The NABARD has recently opened a one-man office in Srinagar which is neither in a position to conceive projects conducive to Kashmir and Jammu region and offering financial assistance. Economic and administrative neglect has also disappointed the surrendered militants as they have no means of viable livelihood. <span style="font-weight:bold;">The degree of disillusionment is on the rise.</span><br /><br />Talks with common Kashmiris indicate that they are tired of continuous military operations and violation of human rights. Security of life, women and property are main concerns. A good percentage of them understand the Catch 22 situation created by Pakistan sponsored proxy war and jihad and India’s law and order response. They pine for peace and stability and economic advancement. The developmental administration has failed the state almost in every sector. The emphasis of the state and the central administration should be on the battle of winning over hearts of the people. Hopefully, multipronged offensive and defensive military actions would be accompanied by sustained and corruption free developmental activities. <span style="font-weight:bold;">War for winning the heart of the people is more important than defensive war against jihadi guerrillas operating from Pakistan.</span>BENGAL UNDER ATTACKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01412970042016633087noreply@blogger.com26