2020 - status quo scenario
Pakistan’s population has grown to 220 million in 2020, 80% of children coming out from madrassas spewing venom on US, Israel and India. Poverty, climate change and militancy have taken firm grip with the military ruling either directly or indirectly.
Gilgit and northern areas have become a district in Pakistan and China military presence is fixed. Gwadar port has become a Chinese Navy docking point.
With above, Pakistan will with impunity engage in terrorism inside India knowing fully well that India has been finally surrounded by Chinese forces and will not be able to do much. And Pakistan will up the ante across the length and breadth of India, bleeding the economic progress and reducing the Indian elephant into a cancerous carcass exacerbated by incompetent, pliant and corrupt politicians too busy to look at the large picture.
If the above scenario is not acceptable to us, then one has to act today – so that in future our children have a better and safer India to live in.
2020 - the way forward
Today, Pakistan is not a country but a piece of land ruled by the military. PERIOD !
While India looks at cracks in Pakistan based on religious divisions (sunni, ahmediya, shia etc) or entho-linguistic division (Sindhi, Punjabi, Balochi, Pushtun) – it has overlooked a major crack inside Pakistan that can be exploited. India has been trying to weakly exploit the ethno-liguistic divisions in Pakistan but different PMs and Home Ministers of India have had differences of opinion on the policy driven by what they deemed “we can live in peaceful co-existence”. How do you live in peace when the vast majority of Pakistani population is fed a daily diet of hatred -which enslaves people to this ideology which is then exploited by the army through its various arms including terrorist groups under its wings?
Hence, Paksitan is a bane to the civilized world as it exists today. The people of Pakistan are like any other people around the world – if they are well educated, well rounded individuals. But Pakistan today, is a basket case of terrorism, spewing cheap foot soldiers dreaming of creating Khorasan and starting wars over the world through Ghazwatul Hind.
Read Ghazwatul Hind before proceeding further by clicking on the link.
The biggest crack Pakistan has is Gini co-efficient. The mix of wealth and the organized poverty it is leading to. More poverty = more terrorist foot soldiers. Wealth and land is in the hands of 1000 or so feudal lords and their extended family. Such is their clout that they are the politicians, the judges, the senior bureaucrats. Justice system for the poor simply do not exist and this alienation too is exploited by the terrorists.
Gini Co-efficient:
A Gini Coefficient of 0 would indicate equal income for all earners. A Gini Coefficient of 1 would mean that one person had all the income and nobody else had any. Thus, a lower Gini Coefficient indicates more equitable distribution of wealth in a society, while higher a Gini Coefficient means that wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people. Sometimes, the Gini Coefficient is multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100 ('Gini Index').
According to a US State Department report, released in 2006, the Gini Coefficient for Pakistan is 68.0 Such high rates are deemed good for revolutions.
The single most devastating factor for increased income and wealth inequalities in Pakistan remains the regressive tax system. Incidence of tax on the poor in the last 10 years has increased substantially (by about 35 per cent), while the rich are paying almost no direct tax on their colossal income and wealth. A study conducted by the Centre for Research on Poverty and Income Distribution (CRPID), 63 per cent of poor in Pakistan fall in the category of 'transitory poor'. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also admitted in its annual reports that the standard definition of 'transitory poor' includes those households that are below the poverty line for most of the time, but not always, during a defined period.
The remaining 32 per cent and five per cent of the population that subsist below the poverty line are 'chronic' and 'extremely poor', respectively. 'Chronic' and 'extremely' poor are those households that are below the poverty line all the time during a defined period. Similarly, on the other side, 13 per cent and 21 per cent of total non-poor (above the poverty line) are classified as 'transitory vulnerable' and 'transitory non-poor', respectively.
This portrays an alarming situation, as more and more people are moving from the 'transitory' category to the 'chronic category', courtesy inequitable distribution of income and wealth, monopoly over assets and regressive tax policies.
Ayman Al Zawahari is not wrong when he calls on the poor of Pakistan to start the revolution against this feudal class. They have done precious little during the floods, and most likely siphoned off millions of aid dollars into their overseas slush funds. It is strange how the short term goals of Indian intelligence and Al-Qaeda are similar – mainly overthrow of Pakistan Army and its feudal class. That is where our goals merge and end.
India has spectacularly failed to rally these poor peasants into an insurgency group tackling the rich feudal lords. Islam does not lend itself to Maoist philosophy, however right against wrong through Quran was not exploited. India has seen Maoist insurgencies in swathes of land where this income distribution is at its worst.
Click to read leftist view emanating from within Pakistan
That being said, it is a question of liquidating 1000+ soft targets in Pakistan to bring about social anarchy – much to the glee of Al-Qaeda. Let super powers fret whether Al-Qaeda will be able to exploit this and get their hands on nukes. India should not be worried about this.
Shaking the ground below the US / EU:
As long as the situation remains under the control of Pakistan Army, no Western nation will come to India’s aid to the rot it faces on its western border. Only if the situation appears to slip from the grasp of Pakistan Army will these countries wake up and dust off contingency plans that were prepared a while back. It is India’s duty to bring in social anarchy inside Pakistan without a single missile being fired from this side and to let the West sweat as Pakistan Army loses grip over Pakistan.
The flood would have shown Indian military planners the devastation it can cause to 1/5 of land mass of Pakistan. It knows what non-military vice grip it can hold over Pakistan. Time to open the tap towards social anarchy and leading to liquidation to over 1000+ feudal landlords to be blamed on rising peasant resentment and exploitation.
At the same time, India knows if there is Mumbai 2 – it will have to act, notwithstanding Peter Bergen’s version. But then India will be acting on Pakistan’s time (or even on US time – David Headley was an US asset) . India knows Mumbai 2 will happen – is waiting to happen.
Question is - Do we let another Mumbai 2 happen – assuming the best vigilance can stop 96 out of 100 attempts ( a fairy tale – but even assume this to be true) – 4 will never be detected. But do we wait for this to happen on their time when they are ready?
Integration of PoK:
Or dare I write here, we make Mumbai 2 happen on our time, on our terms. Its so easy to run an operation inside Pakistan against India through contacts inside Afghanistan. Any of the groups will be eager for shahadat. I am willing to extend here and hope that the next Mumbai 2 be known to us – so that we act and achieve a goal. The goal is not to eliminate terrorist camps – but to take over PoK and integrate it with India.
Chinese interest:
However, we must let Chinese interest remain – let the Karakoram highway be there and allow movement of oil & gas into China. The leverage of the road opening will be directly linked to Chinese behaviour on our border. If the Chinese are quiet, the road remains open. But the road will not allow Chinese arms to come to Pakistan – that is clear. It’s a one way energy corridor for China, be it oil or gas grid. But it will pass through Indian Kashmir – and yes token transit costs that can be swapped with Indian tourists going to Kailash Mansarovar.
Iran & Gilgit:
Iran will not have forgotten the brutality with which Pakistan, then under Pervez Musharraf joined hands with Osama bin Laden to kill local Shias of Gilgit and bring in hordes of Sunnis to settle down to have a better ratio skewed towards to Sunnis. India on liberating, PoK must ensure that these Punjabi Sunnis return to their lands in Pakistan and India allows opening of a consular office of Iran in Gilgit. We must return the Zahedan favour.
In one shot, India will have locked China & Pakistan in a game that will be based on equality and based on mutual respect. Paksitan will greatly feel the pinch of all water originating regions falling into India – the Indus water treaty notwithstanding. Climate change can be blamed for man-made disasters too – to keep Pakistan guessing.
If we are able to pull this off, 2020 will see a better neighbourhood that is based on hard geopolitics and leverages.
Showing posts with label CHINA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CHINA. Show all posts
Friday, September 17, 2010
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
IF VIETNAM CAN DEFEAT CHINA ......
The Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979 has lessons for India. The same fear is stalking the Chinese, that India is getting into some sort of a military alliance with the West, especially the USA to its geo-strategic detriment in the region. Also the fact that the “spittist” Dalai Lama is allowed exile in India and India’s tough stance in Arunachal is being viewed very suspiciously by the Chinese.
Hence, a look at recent history. Feb 1979 : China & Vietman.
China's relations with Vietnam began to deteriorate seriously in the mid-1970s. After Vietnam joined the Soviet-dominated Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation (Comecon) and signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1978, China branded Vietnam the "Cuba of the East" and called the treaty a military alliance. Incidents along the Sino-Vietnamese border increased in frequency and violence. In December 1978 Vietnam invaded Cambodia, quickly ousted the pro-Beijing Pol Pot regime, and overran the country.
China's twenty-nine-day incursion into Vietnam in February 1979 was a response to what China considered to be a collection of provocative actions and policies on Hanoi's part. These included Vietnamese intimacy with the Soviet Union, mistreatment of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, hegemonistic "imperial dreams" in Southeast Asia, and spurning of Beijing's attempt to repatriate Chinese residents of Vietnam to China.
In February 1979 China attacked along virtually the entire Sino-Vietnamese border in a brief, limited campaign that involved ground forces only. The Chinese attack came at dawn on the morning of 17 February 1979, and employed infantry, armor, and artillery. Air power was not employed then or at any time during the war. Within a day, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) had advanced some eight kilometers into Vietnam along a broad front. It then slowed and nearly stalled because of heavy Vietnamese resistance and difficulties within the Chinese supply system. On February 21, the advance resumed against Cao Bang in the far north and against the all-important regional hub of Lang Son. Chinese troops entered Cao Bang on February 27, but the city was not secured completely until March 2. Lang Son fell two days later. On March 5, the Chinese, saying Vietnam had been sufficiently chastised, announced that the campaign was over. Beijing declared its "lesson" finished and the PLA withdrawal was completed on March 16.
Hanoi's post-incursion depiction of the border war was that Beijing had sustained a military setback if not an outright defeat. Most observers doubted that China would risk another war with Vietnam in the near future. Gerald Segal, in his 1985 book Defending China, concluded that China's 1979 war against Vietnam was a complete failure:
"China failed to force a Vietnamese withdrawal from [Cambodia], failed to end border clashes, failed to cast doubt on the strength of the Soviet power, failed to dispel the image of China as a paper tiger, and failed to draw the United States into an anti-Soviet coalition." Nevertheless, Bruce Elleman argued that "one of the primary diplomatic goals behind China's attack was to expose Soviet assurances of military support to Vietnam as a fraud. Seen in this light, Beijing's policy was actually a diplomatic success, since Moscow did not actively intervene, thus showing the practical limitations of the Soviet-Vietnamese military pact. ... China achieved a strategic victory by minimizing the future possibility of a two-front war against the USSR and Vietnam."
After the war both China and Vietnam reorganized their border defenses. In 1986 China deployed twenty-five to twenty-eight divisions and Vietnam thirty-two divisions along their common border.
The 1979 attack confirmed Hanoi's perception of China as a threat. The PAVN high command henceforth had to assume, for planning purposes, that the Chinese might come again and might not halt in the foothills but might drive on to Hanoi. The border war strengthened Soviet-Vietnamese relations. The Soviet military role in Vietnam increased during the 1980s as the Soviets provided arms to Vietnam; moreover, Soviet ships enjoyed access to the harbors at Danang and Cam Ranh Bay, and Soviet reconnaissance aircraft operated out of Vietnamese airfields. The Vietnamese responded to the Chinese campaign by turning the districts along the China border into "iron fortresses" manned by well-equipped and well-trained paramilitary troops. In all, an estimated 600,000 troops were assigned to counter Chinese operations and to stand ready for another Chinese invasion. The precise dimensions of the frontier operations were difficult to determine, but its monetary cost to Vietnam was considerable.
By 1987 China had stationed nine armies (approximately 400,000 troops) in the Sino-Vietnamese border region, including one along the coast. It had also increased its landing craft fleet and was periodically staging amphibious landing exercises off Hainan Island, across from Vietnam, thereby demonstrating that a future attack might come from the sea.
Low-level conflict continued along the Sino-Vietnamese border as each side conducted artillery shelling and probed to gain high spots in the mountainous border terrain. Border incidents increased in intensity during the rainy season, when Beijing attempted to ease Vietnamese pressure against Cambodian resistance fighters.
Since the early 1980s, China pursued what some observers described as a semi-secret campaign against Vietnam that was more than a series of border incidents and less than a limited small-scale war. The Vietnamese called it a "multifaceted war of sabotage." Hanoi officials have described the assaults as comprising steady harassment by artillery fire, intrusions on land by infantry patrols, naval intrusions, and mine planting both at sea and in the river ways. Chinese clandestine activity (the "sabotage" aspect) for the most part was directed against the ethnic minorities of the border region. According to the Hanoi press, teams of Chinese agents systematically sabotaged mountain agricultural production centers as well as lowland port, transportation, and communication facilities. Psychological warfare operations were an integral part of the campaign, as was what the Vietnamese called "economic warfare"--encouragement of Vietnamese villagers along the border to engage in smuggling, currency speculation, and hoarding of goods in short supply.
Hence, a look at recent history. Feb 1979 : China & Vietman.
China's relations with Vietnam began to deteriorate seriously in the mid-1970s. After Vietnam joined the Soviet-dominated Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation (Comecon) and signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1978, China branded Vietnam the "Cuba of the East" and called the treaty a military alliance. Incidents along the Sino-Vietnamese border increased in frequency and violence. In December 1978 Vietnam invaded Cambodia, quickly ousted the pro-Beijing Pol Pot regime, and overran the country.
China's twenty-nine-day incursion into Vietnam in February 1979 was a response to what China considered to be a collection of provocative actions and policies on Hanoi's part. These included Vietnamese intimacy with the Soviet Union, mistreatment of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, hegemonistic "imperial dreams" in Southeast Asia, and spurning of Beijing's attempt to repatriate Chinese residents of Vietnam to China.
In February 1979 China attacked along virtually the entire Sino-Vietnamese border in a brief, limited campaign that involved ground forces only. The Chinese attack came at dawn on the morning of 17 February 1979, and employed infantry, armor, and artillery. Air power was not employed then or at any time during the war. Within a day, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) had advanced some eight kilometers into Vietnam along a broad front. It then slowed and nearly stalled because of heavy Vietnamese resistance and difficulties within the Chinese supply system. On February 21, the advance resumed against Cao Bang in the far north and against the all-important regional hub of Lang Son. Chinese troops entered Cao Bang on February 27, but the city was not secured completely until March 2. Lang Son fell two days later. On March 5, the Chinese, saying Vietnam had been sufficiently chastised, announced that the campaign was over. Beijing declared its "lesson" finished and the PLA withdrawal was completed on March 16.
Hanoi's post-incursion depiction of the border war was that Beijing had sustained a military setback if not an outright defeat. Most observers doubted that China would risk another war with Vietnam in the near future. Gerald Segal, in his 1985 book Defending China, concluded that China's 1979 war against Vietnam was a complete failure:
"China failed to force a Vietnamese withdrawal from [Cambodia], failed to end border clashes, failed to cast doubt on the strength of the Soviet power, failed to dispel the image of China as a paper tiger, and failed to draw the United States into an anti-Soviet coalition." Nevertheless, Bruce Elleman argued that "one of the primary diplomatic goals behind China's attack was to expose Soviet assurances of military support to Vietnam as a fraud. Seen in this light, Beijing's policy was actually a diplomatic success, since Moscow did not actively intervene, thus showing the practical limitations of the Soviet-Vietnamese military pact. ... China achieved a strategic victory by minimizing the future possibility of a two-front war against the USSR and Vietnam."
After the war both China and Vietnam reorganized their border defenses. In 1986 China deployed twenty-five to twenty-eight divisions and Vietnam thirty-two divisions along their common border.
The 1979 attack confirmed Hanoi's perception of China as a threat. The PAVN high command henceforth had to assume, for planning purposes, that the Chinese might come again and might not halt in the foothills but might drive on to Hanoi. The border war strengthened Soviet-Vietnamese relations. The Soviet military role in Vietnam increased during the 1980s as the Soviets provided arms to Vietnam; moreover, Soviet ships enjoyed access to the harbors at Danang and Cam Ranh Bay, and Soviet reconnaissance aircraft operated out of Vietnamese airfields. The Vietnamese responded to the Chinese campaign by turning the districts along the China border into "iron fortresses" manned by well-equipped and well-trained paramilitary troops. In all, an estimated 600,000 troops were assigned to counter Chinese operations and to stand ready for another Chinese invasion. The precise dimensions of the frontier operations were difficult to determine, but its monetary cost to Vietnam was considerable.
By 1987 China had stationed nine armies (approximately 400,000 troops) in the Sino-Vietnamese border region, including one along the coast. It had also increased its landing craft fleet and was periodically staging amphibious landing exercises off Hainan Island, across from Vietnam, thereby demonstrating that a future attack might come from the sea.
Low-level conflict continued along the Sino-Vietnamese border as each side conducted artillery shelling and probed to gain high spots in the mountainous border terrain. Border incidents increased in intensity during the rainy season, when Beijing attempted to ease Vietnamese pressure against Cambodian resistance fighters.
Since the early 1980s, China pursued what some observers described as a semi-secret campaign against Vietnam that was more than a series of border incidents and less than a limited small-scale war. The Vietnamese called it a "multifaceted war of sabotage." Hanoi officials have described the assaults as comprising steady harassment by artillery fire, intrusions on land by infantry patrols, naval intrusions, and mine planting both at sea and in the river ways. Chinese clandestine activity (the "sabotage" aspect) for the most part was directed against the ethnic minorities of the border region. According to the Hanoi press, teams of Chinese agents systematically sabotaged mountain agricultural production centers as well as lowland port, transportation, and communication facilities. Psychological warfare operations were an integral part of the campaign, as was what the Vietnamese called "economic warfare"--encouragement of Vietnamese villagers along the border to engage in smuggling, currency speculation, and hoarding of goods in short supply.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
FUTURE CONFLICT ZONES WITH CHINA
Nestled between India and China at an altitude of 14,500 feet, and 4 hours bone shaking drive from Leh, lies Pangong Lake (also known as Lukung Lake). 45 kms of this lake lies within Indian territory while the remaining 90 kms lies within China.
Things deteriorated in 1999 after China, taking advantage of the Indian Army’s buildup in Kargil, built a 5-km permanent track into Indian territory along the lake.
The Chinese have led incursions into India because they know that they can – and can get away with it. It’s as simple as that. Our politicians refuse to acknowledge even today the Chinese threat. Reminds one of the 1962 debacle when Krishna Menon ordered COFFEE PERCOLATORS to be made in ARMS FACTORY – thinking that the Chinese aggression is a myth, only to be proved wrong at a catastrophic cost to the country.
In July 2008, an Indian motorboat on regular patrolling duty along the perceived border in the lake, was surrounded by three Chinese naval crafts. Things started turning tense as the Chinese crafts approached the Indian boat (which was sufficiently armed with two machine guns and a 20 -member contingent). The situation calmed down only after the quick thinking operator swung around the larger Indian boat in circles to disperse the Chinese crafts.
The Chinese Navy operates close to 22 armed patrol boats in the lake — mostly smaller vessels seating five to seven soldiers. India, on the other hand, has two patrol boats that are operated by the Army. While these boats are bigger — carrying up to 21 soldiers — the numeric superiority that China enjoys is undeniable.
Stuck in the corridors of South Block is a proposal to ferry in an additional 10-12 boats for better patrolling of the lake.
BACK TO 1962: The Govt of India, with Krishna Menon as Defence Minister, was least interested in defence preparedness. Ordnance factories were manufacturing coffee percolators and toasters, because they had “extra spare capacity”. But as they all shouted in Parliament, “ ------every inch of our land will be defended to the last man.” With what?
The analysts from Jane’s Information Group, believe that the Chinese Communist Party can only continue to rule the country if it maintains economic growth at more than 10 per cent. It is already investing heavily in Africa for food and natural resources but this could lead to a CONFLICT WITH INDIA with the trade route that crosses the Indian Ocean.
Are we ready for this future conflict?
China, historically has been a land power, barring the dynasty of Zeng He in 15th century, when China had famed treasure fleets. Then, it was more for explorations rather than expansions or even guarding any trade lanes. As threat of invasion from north increased, China quickly abandoned its ocean going enterprises – considering them to be expensive.
However 21st century is panning out quite the opposite. China has found itself increasingly dependant on resources and markets accessible only via maritime routes. Where US and Japan are dominant naval powers, China is stepping up its naval capabilities quite dramatically. Chinese navy is seeking to project powers not only throughout East and South China seas but also to Indian Ocean basin and beyond, to West Africa and Latin America.
By 2015 China is expected to have six Jin-class submarines capable of firing the JL2 ballistic nuclear missile that could threaten both the western and eastern American seaboards acting as deterrent to any US intervention if Taiwan or other areas erupted in conflict.
China’s nuclear attack submarine force is expanding “quite considerably” with six T93 hunter killers and more than a dozen Kilo class boats.
Fast attack craft, each carrying eight anti-ship missiles, are to increase from 40 to 100 giving the navy “a considerable capability. There had been a major build up of assault ships including 30 large tank landing craft that would allow long range operations.
2009 – Chinese navy pilots will begin training for aircraft carrier operations, that are expected to become operational early next decade.
ARE WE READY FOR THIS CHINA .... CLEARLY BENT ON CHANGING GEO-STRATEGIC SHIFTS AROUND INDIA.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
HON'BLE MINISTER OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS - WAKE UP AND SMELL THE DRY CHINESE GUNPOWDER !!
A message to Hon'ble Minister of External Affairs Mr SM Krishna who stated "India's borders with China is most peaceful" - are you smoking OPIUM or are you suffering from delusions that your namesake (Krishna Menon - then Defense Minister) suffered from and ordered Indian Army ordnance to manufacture coffee percolators instead of arms (because he too foresaw a peaceful border with CHINA) prior to the 1962 war with China.
Hon'ble Finance Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee - thank you for kicking Mr Krishna and his sidekick Mr Shashi Tharoor out of their 5 star confines which is taken from my tax money and make them smell coffee if not the dry smell of the Chinese gunpowder.
On a tactical sense, India and China can never go for an all our war - more out of geography than anything else. Will cover this in later articles. However a short decisive war is never ruled out. China is licking its wounds with India's forceful moves in Tawang and these are pressure tactics - the innumerable border incursions into India by China.
TIME TO TEACH CHINA A LESSON:
13th November 2008 : China made a direct request to India for blocking the six-day meeting organised by the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala from November 17 to discuss the future of Tibet. Significance of Tibet.
Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: “Anyone who participates in the meeting being organised by the Dalai Lama will not be liked by the Chinese people. The Chinese government is against anyone trying to split the nation or raise such an issue in the international arena. The Indian government has made solemn commitment about not allowing any anti-China activities on its soil. We hope that the commitment will be implemented.”
The Dalai Lama invoked article 59 of the Tibetan Charter that empowers him to call a 'Special Meeting' to discuss the future course of action as his envoys returned empty handed after secret meetings with Chinese government representatives. The past few weeks has seen the Tibetan leader complaining that he had "given up" on China and that his "faith in the Chinese government is thinning."
Chinese aggression on ground and verbal diktats are no longer welcome. It is time India behaved like a powerful nation and rapped the knuckles of these "interfering" Chinese.
30TH September 2008: The wall of mistrust continues to be an impediment in Indo-China relations. Intrusions by the Chinese forces continue unabated into Indian territory despite attempts by a red-faced South Block to brush them under the carpet.
The most recent incursion occurred on September 30 at the Burste post in the Ladakh sector along the Sino-Indian boundary. Soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered 15 km into India.
While the transgression itself was unacceptable, the Chinese captured the patrolling base hut of Indian forces who were not present at the outpost. The patrolling base was burnt and rations and other equipment stolen. In another incident a fortnight ago, the Chinese PLA confronted Indian soldiers and asked them to “vacate Chinese sovereign territory”.
THE CHINESE AUDACITY IS A DIRECT FUNCTION OF INDIA'S IMPOTENT RESPONSE.
Recent example of this. Chinese Premier himself gave assurances to the Indian Prime Minister that China will not obstruct India's entry in the Nuclear Supplier's Group but it did exactly that. Instead of being in the forefront, China aligned itself with countries that were opposing India's entry into the NSG by playing an active role inside the room with these dissenting nations. When Indian PM tried calling up the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao - Jiabao refused to take the call - such was the audacity. It was only when George Bush telephoned the Chinese Premier, that China relented.
While an all out war with China is a very remote possibility,more so to do with Himalayas and geography (as opposed to history), however there are clear Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 of possible local "war" with China.
Alarmingly, according to a report sent to National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, the incursions tally has increased to 213 incidents, up from 170 reported last year. While the Chinese continue to maintain an aggressive posture, India’s diplomatic response has been weak and tardy, which is certainly not the way an aspiring power behaves.”
The Chinese foreign ministry recently challenged external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee's claim that Arunachal is an integral part of India. Foreign Minister Qin said that Mukherjee's statement was contrary to historical facts as China does not accept the MacMohan Line and the border between the two nations has not yet been demarcated.
McMahon Line : The McMahon line runs through the eastern Himalayas and constitutes a psychological border between India and China. Drawn up and agreed to during by British India and Manchu China, its subsequent repudiation by China made it the major irritant plaguing the relations the two countries. Sir Henry McMahon, British India’s foreign secretary, drew this 1,360km border on a map at the 1914 Simla Convention attended by British, Tibetan and Chinese delegates, thereby adding 129,500 sq km to India. Though Mr Chen I-fan, the Chinese representative, initialled the map, his government disavowed it. China has never recognised the McMahon Line.
Chinese duplicity is its stock foreign policy. For example China’s stance on India’s annexation of Sikkim: the Chinese government did not accept India’s annexation of Sikkim for over two decades in spite of the fact that Sikkim was nowhere near the McMahon line which China first accepted and then unilaterally repudiated.
Bhutan incursions: There is a deep-seated fear in Indian defense circles that Chinese troop movements in Bhutan near the strategic Chumbi Valley are dangerously close to the Siliguri Corridor, aka India's chicken neck, which separates India proper from its restive northeast and is a mere 13 miles to 25 miles wide, making India extremely vulnerable to a territorial cutoff. A Chinese move into Dolam means that India’s border with China gets distorted at Sikkim’s tri-point with Bhutan. It also means that Chinese forces move a few kilometres south from where they originally were. It brings them closer to North Bengal’s Siliguri Corridor. China has always laid claim to Dolam. There is a suspicion that it has now extended its claim line.
TIBET:
Through out the brief history of territorial dispute between India and China, India chose to be on the defensive side for all the wrong reasons. India failed to use the ‘Tibet card’ as a bargaining chip in the territorial negotiation with China. China knows it very well that India would not dare raise the issue of Tibet either on international plate form or in bilateral talks. The Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh was based on the history of Tibet, not on Chinese history. Historically Tibet owned the large territories of present day Arunachal Pradesh, especially the Tawang district. However, India on the other hand also has a historically attested reason to claim over Arunachal Prasesh. Ironically it is also based on Tibetan history.
With the demise of the Manchu dynasty in China in 1912, the Thirteenth Dalai lama drove out the Ambans, the Manchu emperor’s representatives in Tibet and their security forces out of Tibet and declared Tibet as an independent sovereign nation.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH:
In 1914 British tried to mediate a negotiation between Tibet and China to settle the political status of Tibet and territorial dispute between Tibet and China. China declined to sign the treaty. With a failure to resolve Sino-Tibet dispute, British decided to settle the Indo-Tibet border directly with Tibet. On July 3rd 1914 the British foreign secretary Sir Henry McMohan and the Tibetan government representative Lonchen Shatra signed the Simla Convention. They accepted the McMohan Line, which accorded Tawang to British India, as an officially accepted boundary between the two nations. The actual map showing the McMohan Line as a boundary between Tibet and India was published by Survey of India in 1937. In 1954 India officially called the territories accorded to her side of the McMohan Line NEFA- North East Frontier Agency. To consolidate her claim over NEFA, in 1972 India gave it an Indian name, Arunachal Pradesh, which remained a Union Territory of the Central Government of India until 1987. In 1987 Arunachal Pradesh formally became an Indian state.
AGGRESSIVE DIPLOMACY:
India must be aggressive diplomatically with a fresh and more insightful foreign policy in dealing with China. The best card India can use to bargain with China is Tibet. Nothing perturbs China diplomatically more than Tibet and Tibet is not a dead issue yet. India is a host nation to Tibetan government in Exile and home to the Dalai Lama, accepted leader of the Tibetan people inside and outside Tibet. With India’s initiative more and more countries will come forward to join India to raise Tibet on the international platform. Hollywood is smitten with Tibet - need to bring it to realistic levels to choke CHINA.
BACK TO 1962: Nehru was smitten into the "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" concept. The Govt of India, with Krishna Menon as Defence Minister, was least interested in defence preparedness - he and Nehru refused to believe that China is an enemy. Ordnance factories were manufacturing coffee percolators and toasters, because they had “extra spare capacity”. (CAN YOU IMAGINE THIS - COFFEE PERCOLATORS AND TOASTERS AND NOT AMMUNITION).
AGGRESSIVE POSTURING:
Look at the population map of China above. See how sparsely it is populated around Tibetian region. The Chinese fear is this: If China were to withdraw from Tibet, and there were no military hindrance to population movement, Beijing fears this population could migrate into Tibet. If there were such a migration, Tibet could turn into an extension of India and, over time, become a potential beachhead for Indian power.
It is the Chinese fear that is forcing them to behave aggressively around their weakness. India should play around these Chinese fears and make it a reality for them.
8 steps :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims. Tibetians have a valid fear : that the Chinese have tried to alter the demographic balance of Tibet by settling Han Chinese there, that it wishes to assimilate the religious and cultural distinctiveness of Tibetan identity into a larger Chinese identity.
6. Give Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissension.
8. How can India take over Mt Kailash – ordained as a religious site in Indian Vedic texts, now in Tibet (China)? Well India will not, Tibet will. And Tibet being hostlile to China will lease or hand over the region to India. Hence India should start preparing the Tibetians for armed struggle against the Chinese. Tibet is the soft underbelly and a strong guirella force of 50,000 battle hardened (taken from ITBP and infiltrated back to China) would cause enough unrest. Simultaneously help mass uprisings in Chinese villages against mainland city centric China. India's goal should be Tibetian independence.
Chinese navy is today weaker than Japanese navy and of course the US Navy. However, in 15 years, Chinese navy will be a force to reckon with. Gwadar is a port in Pakistan that can base Chinese naval ships and play three roles:
i) safeguard Chinese oil shipment to mainland China,
ii) threaten Indian navy and mainland India and
iii) provide a security blanket around Pakistan.
Do we wait for this to play out and forever alter our dealings not only with China but also Pakistan? The clear answer = NO.
Ancient Indian thinkers produced two schools of war, diplomacy and interstate relations; the dharmayuddha (ethical warfare) school; and the kutayuddha (devious warfare) school. The two schools were, however, not mutually exclusive. Chanakya scores of Sun Tzu many times over.
Buddhism is India’s cultural gift to Tibet and China. We win nations through culture and that is our primary way. Kutayuddha as a means of last resort - with China we have come to that last resort !
FLAG OF INDEPENDENT TIBET.
THE GOAL IS : TIBETIAN INDEPENDENCE. ANYTHING LESS IS NOT IN INDIA’S LONG TERM INTERESTS.
Hon'ble Finance Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee - thank you for kicking Mr Krishna and his sidekick Mr Shashi Tharoor out of their 5 star confines which is taken from my tax money and make them smell coffee if not the dry smell of the Chinese gunpowder.
On a tactical sense, India and China can never go for an all our war - more out of geography than anything else. Will cover this in later articles. However a short decisive war is never ruled out. China is licking its wounds with India's forceful moves in Tawang and these are pressure tactics - the innumerable border incursions into India by China.
TIME TO TEACH CHINA A LESSON:
13th November 2008 : China made a direct request to India for blocking the six-day meeting organised by the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala from November 17 to discuss the future of Tibet. Significance of Tibet.
Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: “Anyone who participates in the meeting being organised by the Dalai Lama will not be liked by the Chinese people. The Chinese government is against anyone trying to split the nation or raise such an issue in the international arena. The Indian government has made solemn commitment about not allowing any anti-China activities on its soil. We hope that the commitment will be implemented.”
The Dalai Lama invoked article 59 of the Tibetan Charter that empowers him to call a 'Special Meeting' to discuss the future course of action as his envoys returned empty handed after secret meetings with Chinese government representatives. The past few weeks has seen the Tibetan leader complaining that he had "given up" on China and that his "faith in the Chinese government is thinning."
Chinese aggression on ground and verbal diktats are no longer welcome. It is time India behaved like a powerful nation and rapped the knuckles of these "interfering" Chinese.
30TH September 2008: The wall of mistrust continues to be an impediment in Indo-China relations. Intrusions by the Chinese forces continue unabated into Indian territory despite attempts by a red-faced South Block to brush them under the carpet.
The most recent incursion occurred on September 30 at the Burste post in the Ladakh sector along the Sino-Indian boundary. Soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered 15 km into India.
While the transgression itself was unacceptable, the Chinese captured the patrolling base hut of Indian forces who were not present at the outpost. The patrolling base was burnt and rations and other equipment stolen. In another incident a fortnight ago, the Chinese PLA confronted Indian soldiers and asked them to “vacate Chinese sovereign territory”.
THE CHINESE AUDACITY IS A DIRECT FUNCTION OF INDIA'S IMPOTENT RESPONSE.
Recent example of this. Chinese Premier himself gave assurances to the Indian Prime Minister that China will not obstruct India's entry in the Nuclear Supplier's Group but it did exactly that. Instead of being in the forefront, China aligned itself with countries that were opposing India's entry into the NSG by playing an active role inside the room with these dissenting nations. When Indian PM tried calling up the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao - Jiabao refused to take the call - such was the audacity. It was only when George Bush telephoned the Chinese Premier, that China relented.
While an all out war with China is a very remote possibility,more so to do with Himalayas and geography (as opposed to history), however there are clear Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 of possible local "war" with China.
Alarmingly, according to a report sent to National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, the incursions tally has increased to 213 incidents, up from 170 reported last year. While the Chinese continue to maintain an aggressive posture, India’s diplomatic response has been weak and tardy, which is certainly not the way an aspiring power behaves.”
The Chinese foreign ministry recently challenged external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee's claim that Arunachal is an integral part of India. Foreign Minister Qin said that Mukherjee's statement was contrary to historical facts as China does not accept the MacMohan Line and the border between the two nations has not yet been demarcated.
McMahon Line : The McMahon line runs through the eastern Himalayas and constitutes a psychological border between India and China. Drawn up and agreed to during by British India and Manchu China, its subsequent repudiation by China made it the major irritant plaguing the relations the two countries. Sir Henry McMahon, British India’s foreign secretary, drew this 1,360km border on a map at the 1914 Simla Convention attended by British, Tibetan and Chinese delegates, thereby adding 129,500 sq km to India. Though Mr Chen I-fan, the Chinese representative, initialled the map, his government disavowed it. China has never recognised the McMahon Line.
Chinese duplicity is its stock foreign policy. For example China’s stance on India’s annexation of Sikkim: the Chinese government did not accept India’s annexation of Sikkim for over two decades in spite of the fact that Sikkim was nowhere near the McMahon line which China first accepted and then unilaterally repudiated.
Bhutan incursions: There is a deep-seated fear in Indian defense circles that Chinese troop movements in Bhutan near the strategic Chumbi Valley are dangerously close to the Siliguri Corridor, aka India's chicken neck, which separates India proper from its restive northeast and is a mere 13 miles to 25 miles wide, making India extremely vulnerable to a territorial cutoff. A Chinese move into Dolam means that India’s border with China gets distorted at Sikkim’s tri-point with Bhutan. It also means that Chinese forces move a few kilometres south from where they originally were. It brings them closer to North Bengal’s Siliguri Corridor. China has always laid claim to Dolam. There is a suspicion that it has now extended its claim line.
TIBET:
Through out the brief history of territorial dispute between India and China, India chose to be on the defensive side for all the wrong reasons. India failed to use the ‘Tibet card’ as a bargaining chip in the territorial negotiation with China. China knows it very well that India would not dare raise the issue of Tibet either on international plate form or in bilateral talks. The Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh was based on the history of Tibet, not on Chinese history. Historically Tibet owned the large territories of present day Arunachal Pradesh, especially the Tawang district. However, India on the other hand also has a historically attested reason to claim over Arunachal Prasesh. Ironically it is also based on Tibetan history.
With the demise of the Manchu dynasty in China in 1912, the Thirteenth Dalai lama drove out the Ambans, the Manchu emperor’s representatives in Tibet and their security forces out of Tibet and declared Tibet as an independent sovereign nation.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH:
In 1914 British tried to mediate a negotiation between Tibet and China to settle the political status of Tibet and territorial dispute between Tibet and China. China declined to sign the treaty. With a failure to resolve Sino-Tibet dispute, British decided to settle the Indo-Tibet border directly with Tibet. On July 3rd 1914 the British foreign secretary Sir Henry McMohan and the Tibetan government representative Lonchen Shatra signed the Simla Convention. They accepted the McMohan Line, which accorded Tawang to British India, as an officially accepted boundary between the two nations. The actual map showing the McMohan Line as a boundary between Tibet and India was published by Survey of India in 1937. In 1954 India officially called the territories accorded to her side of the McMohan Line NEFA- North East Frontier Agency. To consolidate her claim over NEFA, in 1972 India gave it an Indian name, Arunachal Pradesh, which remained a Union Territory of the Central Government of India until 1987. In 1987 Arunachal Pradesh formally became an Indian state.
AGGRESSIVE DIPLOMACY:
India must be aggressive diplomatically with a fresh and more insightful foreign policy in dealing with China. The best card India can use to bargain with China is Tibet. Nothing perturbs China diplomatically more than Tibet and Tibet is not a dead issue yet. India is a host nation to Tibetan government in Exile and home to the Dalai Lama, accepted leader of the Tibetan people inside and outside Tibet. With India’s initiative more and more countries will come forward to join India to raise Tibet on the international platform. Hollywood is smitten with Tibet - need to bring it to realistic levels to choke CHINA.
BACK TO 1962: Nehru was smitten into the "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" concept. The Govt of India, with Krishna Menon as Defence Minister, was least interested in defence preparedness - he and Nehru refused to believe that China is an enemy. Ordnance factories were manufacturing coffee percolators and toasters, because they had “extra spare capacity”. (CAN YOU IMAGINE THIS - COFFEE PERCOLATORS AND TOASTERS AND NOT AMMUNITION).
AGGRESSIVE POSTURING:
Look at the population map of China above. See how sparsely it is populated around Tibetian region. The Chinese fear is this: If China were to withdraw from Tibet, and there were no military hindrance to population movement, Beijing fears this population could migrate into Tibet. If there were such a migration, Tibet could turn into an extension of India and, over time, become a potential beachhead for Indian power.
It is the Chinese fear that is forcing them to behave aggressively around their weakness. India should play around these Chinese fears and make it a reality for them.
8 steps :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims. Tibetians have a valid fear : that the Chinese have tried to alter the demographic balance of Tibet by settling Han Chinese there, that it wishes to assimilate the religious and cultural distinctiveness of Tibetan identity into a larger Chinese identity.
6. Give Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissension.
8. How can India take over Mt Kailash – ordained as a religious site in Indian Vedic texts, now in Tibet (China)? Well India will not, Tibet will. And Tibet being hostlile to China will lease or hand over the region to India. Hence India should start preparing the Tibetians for armed struggle against the Chinese. Tibet is the soft underbelly and a strong guirella force of 50,000 battle hardened (taken from ITBP and infiltrated back to China) would cause enough unrest. Simultaneously help mass uprisings in Chinese villages against mainland city centric China. India's goal should be Tibetian independence.
Chinese navy is today weaker than Japanese navy and of course the US Navy. However, in 15 years, Chinese navy will be a force to reckon with. Gwadar is a port in Pakistan that can base Chinese naval ships and play three roles:
i) safeguard Chinese oil shipment to mainland China,
ii) threaten Indian navy and mainland India and
iii) provide a security blanket around Pakistan.
Do we wait for this to play out and forever alter our dealings not only with China but also Pakistan? The clear answer = NO.
Ancient Indian thinkers produced two schools of war, diplomacy and interstate relations; the dharmayuddha (ethical warfare) school; and the kutayuddha (devious warfare) school. The two schools were, however, not mutually exclusive. Chanakya scores of Sun Tzu many times over.
Buddhism is India’s cultural gift to Tibet and China. We win nations through culture and that is our primary way. Kutayuddha as a means of last resort - with China we have come to that last resort !
FLAG OF INDEPENDENT TIBET.
THE GOAL IS : TIBETIAN INDEPENDENCE. ANYTHING LESS IS NOT IN INDIA’S LONG TERM INTERESTS.
Monday, June 15, 2009
CHINESE MEDIA : INDIA'S UNWISE MILITARY MOVES
This report came out on June 11th, 2009 in an editorial in People's Daily Online, CHINA: titled "India's unwise military moves". (c) People's Daily Online and Global Times.
Important article and a must read for fence sitters.
THE ARTICLE:
In the last few days, India has dispatched roughly 60,000 troops to its border with China, the scene of enduring territorial disputes between the two countries.
J.J. Singh, the Indian governor of the controversial area, said the move was intended to "meet future security challenges" from China. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh claimed, despite cooperative India-China relations, his government would make no concessions to China on territorial disputes.
The tough posture Singh's new government has taken may win some applause among India's domestic nationalists. But it is dangerous if it is based on a false anticipation that China will cave in.
India has long held contradictory views on China. Another big Asian country, India is frustrated that China's rise has captured much of the world's attention. Proud of its "advanced political system," India feels superior to China. However, it faces a disappointing domestic situation which is unstable compared with China's.
India likes to brag about its sustainable development, but worries that it is being left behind by China. China is seen in India as both a potential threat and a competitor to surpass.
But India can't actually compete with China in a number of areas, like international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has NOT YET realized this.
Indian politicians these days SEEM to think their country would be doing China a huge favor simply by NOT joining the "ring around China" established by the US and Japan.
India's growing power would have a significant impact on the balance of this equation, which has led India to think that fear and gratitude for its restraint will cause China to defer to it on territorial disputes.
But this is WISHFUL THINKING, as China won't make any compromises in its border disputes with India. And while China wishes to coexist peacefully with India, this desire isn't born out of fear.
India's current course can only lead to a rivalry between the two countries. India needs to consider whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China. It should also be asking itself why it hasn't forged the stable and friendly relationship with China that China enjoys with many of India's neighbors, like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Any aggressive moves will certainly not aid the development of good relations with China. India should examine its attitude and preconceptions; it will need to adjust if it hopes to cooperate with China and achieve a MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL OUTCOME.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
PAKISTAN & CHINA'S ECONOMIC TERRORISM AGAINST INDIA
Counterfeiting is economic terrorism, but terrorism none the less. When your adversary is economically becoming stronger it will mean that the adversary will also become militarily stronger and powerful, a situation to the detriment of the host country.
Pakistan’s ISI has systematically tried to weaken India by supporting insurgencies in India, opening of caste and religious divide in the society and also good old terrorism in Kashmir and elsewhere. Where it has played with finesse is in the counterfeiting department.
Before this, I cannot resist a little history : OPERATION BERNHARD
Only a fortnight after the start of World War II, at a meeting that has remained a secret for more than half a century, officials of German finance and Nazi espionage approved an audacious plot to bring down the world's financial system. Hundreds of millions of forged British pounds were to become a weapon of war. Operation Bernhard not only became the greatest counterfeit scheme in history but the most wide-ranging and bizarre, with its own gallery of rogues.
COUNTERFEIT £5 NOTE MADE BY THE NAZIS
Major Bernhard Krueger, a meticulously correct SS engineer, ran a production line of Jewish prisoners in Sachsenhausen concentration camp near Berlin. The millions of forged notes they printed were laundered through a Nazi confidence man with the help of Jewish agents who concealed their origins. Toward the end, one of Europe 's most accomplished professional forgers, the only career criminal in the operation, was brought in to counterfeit dollar bills.
Bernhard Krueger as a young SS officer (left), and in a mug shot taken by the British after the war. Photo Credit: British National Archives
In London, the arrogant grandees at the Bank of England could not believe their pound notes could be forged with such expertise and in such quantity. Even George Soros, the great speculator who broke the Bank of England fifty years later, almost got bilked as a boy on the Budapest black market. In one of the crowning ironies of many, after the war Golda Meir protected a millionaire Jewish money-launderer from British authorities in what was then known as Palestine.
The plot was hatched in Berlin on September 18, 1939, behind the imposing stone facade of what had once been Kaiser Wilhelm's Finance Ministry. Walther Funk, a pudgy former financial journalist whose principal task was keeping German industry in Hitler's camp, was the only one to register the least objection because he feared the counterfeit notes would upset his task of milking Hitler's conquered territories. Josef Goebbels, Hitler's propaganda minister, was not present but feared the "grotesque plan" might be turned against Germany 's own fragile finances by the Allies. In fact, Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt toyed with the idea of counterfeiting enemy currency but their advisers rejected it.
Nevertheless, the minds of Nazi espionage believed they could weaken the pound as the trading standard and store of value underpinning the British Empire. Bullies and incompetents were at first put in charge of the operation. After several false starts, Krueger, a textile engineer, figured out how to match the paper, printing, and design of the impressive British notes. He found his forgers in Jewish death camps on the orders of SS Reichsfuehrer Heinrich Himmler. Some were plucked from Auschwitz by Krueger himself, who courteously addressed them with the formal German Sie.
The SS planned to keep the operation secret by killing them when the job was done. The prisoners worked with the knowledge that they were marked for death when they had finished their jobs. " From the start, they wondered whether they should stretch out their work and risk execution for sabotage, or perform efficiently and thus hasten their own deaths. No one ever knew for sure where Krueger stood, but by keeping the operation going, he kept himself from being sent to the Russian front. What all these men said and thought as they lived under this sword of Damocles makes chilling, personal drama.
From 1942 to 1945, the Germans forged more pound notes than all the reserves in the vaults of the Bank of England--132 million pounds, equal to about 15 per cent of all genuine notes in circulation and enough to cast suspicion on all of England 's paper money. They were worth $650 million at the wartime rate of exchange and six or seven billion dollars in today's money.
By 1943 the Luftwaffe was almost kaput, so instead of pursuing their original goal of dropping the counterfeits on England to cast suspicion on real pound notes, the SS used the fakes to finance its own espionage service--whose discoveries Hitler ignored like all bad news--and to undermine and eventually absorb the German military's own intelligence corps. The SS specialized mainly in dirty tricks and, true to the nature of the Nazis' gangster regime, in skimming money to enrich themselves. So many counterfeit pounds flooded the black markets on the European continent and North Africa that Britain's currency came under widespread suspicion abroad, and its value plunged.The British defense was as weak as it was unprecedented. Normally nations at war guard their currency by prohibiting its export. Instead, the British imposed a wartime blockade on bringing pounds into the country to prevent the counterfeits from infecting the economy. Scotland Yard was powerless, and so was Interpol. Its Vienna headquarters had fallen into Hitler's hands when he swallowed Austria in 1938. The Nazis even fooled Swiss bankers, whom the British left swinging in the wind rather than let their secret defenses against counterfeits become known.
By the end of the war, Operation Bernhard had left its imprint. Through one of the Jewish money launderers, the Jewish underground passed on thousands of counterfeits to help the ingathering of exiles to Palestine and the purchase of war materiel for the nascent Israeli army. The Bank of England was so embarrassed by the massive counterfeit that it not only burned the fakes but some of its files. In the continuing and futile search for Nazi loot and bank records deep in the Alpine lakes where the SS dumped millions of forged bills, the financial and political ripples continued into this century.
PAKISTAN:
Times of India: Though the role of Pakistani intelligence agency ISI in printing and circulation of FICN (Fake Indian Currency Notes) has never been a secret, sleuths recently found that the spy agency had, of late, impressed upon the government in Islamabad to import additional currency-standard printing paper from companies located in London to pursue its nefarious designs in India.
Pakistan has been procuring currency-standard printing paper in huge quantities from London-based companies — much higher than normal requirement of the country for printing its own currency — for diverting it to print FICN.
The ISI has, in fact, been using state air-carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to tansport counterfeit currency to its conduits in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, sources in investigating agencies said.
The modus operandi of the ISI was revealed by two Nepali counterfeit currency traffickers who were arrested by Thailand police in October 2008. During interrogation, the accused disclosed that they were working for a prominent Nepali businessman who was the son of a former minister in King Gyanendra's regime. “The fact that Nepali territory is being used by Pakistanis to smuggle counterfeit currency is well known. The first such expose was made when Pakistani diplomats were caught distributing FICN in Nepal,” an official said.
According to a recent Government estimate, counterfeit currency amounting to Rs 169,000 crore (USD 36,000 MILLION) is floating around in the Indian financial system. From real estate transactions to ordinary grocery shopping, these bogus notes are being deployed everyday — sometimes innocently, sometimes with a sinister objective. “In 2008, the CBI registered 13 cases having international/ inter-State ramifications relating to the recovery/ seizure of fake Indian currency notes,” says Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) spokesperson Harsh Bhal.
Intelligence agencies see the counterfeit rupee attack as a form of “economic terrorism”. They have traced many of the fake currency operations back to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its ancillary crime syndicates such as the Dawood Ibrahim gang. With a multi-layered network in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka and also inside India, counterfeit notes enter India in all three ways — through land, sea and air.
Intelligence officials say the ISI uses terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) to smuggle and circulate counterfeit currency in India.
Dangerously, the counterfeiters have managed to find their way into the official banking system. “Perhaps there is no better way to pummel India’s economy,” says an intelligence official. He explains the modus operandi. Fake currency operatives usually deposit the notes during peak hours when bank tellers are pressed for time and liable to make mistakes.
Fake currency amounting to nearly Rs 3 crore was found in the chest of the State Bank of India’s Domariaganj branch in Uttar Pradesh’s Siddarthnagar district. Some fake notes were also found in the currency chest of ICICI Bank’s Sanjay Place branch in Agra. The examples can go on.
Where are the fake notes printed? A CBI report to the Finance Ministry suggested that the Pakistan Government printing press in Quetta (Baluchistan) was churning out large quantities of counterfeit Indian currency.
Karachi’s security press, and two other presses in Lahore and Peshawar, have also been suspected.
The fine quality of Pakistan-produced fake currency has alarmed India. Printed on security paper, the sophistication and craftsmanship is of a high order. “Only a specialist can make out the notes as counterfeit,” says an intelligence official. The fake notes duplicate serial numbers and floral designs of genuine notes. In addition, they even have the security wire or “guide wire” — the common man’s mode of authenticating a currency note.
However, in the larger reckoning, the problem remains. If and when India does decide to take action against Pakistan-based terror, it may find that it is not enough to destroy merely military camps. A certain currency printing press in Quetta may also need to be blown up!
CHINA:
China loses no chance to undermine India at international for a, be if for surreptitious moves during the Nuclear Deal or blocking Maulana Massod’s Azhar’s terrorist tag in the UN (though this was together with UK) or the more blatant vetoing of ADB loan of US$60 million to India because there was a reference to Arunachal Pradesh.
But what takes the cake is this Nigerian Tribune News dated 6th June 2009. It states: “A clearing agent(names withheld) has been apprehended by the National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) over his involvement in the importation of fake malaria drugs (Maloxine and Amalar tablets) worth N32.1million.
He was arrested at Kirikiri Terminal in Lagos while attempting to clear a container load of the drugs marked PCIU 2184458 which was imported by Divine Favour Overseas limited of 41, Tejuosho Street, Yaba.
According to the Director-Genral of NAFDAC, Dr. Paul Orhii, who disclosed this at a press conference in Lagos on Monday, the arrest and subsequent seizure of the drugs followed a text message from an informant on the development.
He said the fake products were produced in China but labelled “Made in India,” adding that the laboratory analysis of the drugs had revealed that it lacked an important active ingredient called pyrimenthamine.
The NAFDAC boss said the seizure was significant in view of the emergence of resistance strain of malaria parasites, saying the use of the fake drugs might lead to treatment failure, anaemia and death if no effective drug was given after.”
Bear in mind, The Indian pharmaceutical industry’s exports to Africa are worth $1,065 million a year and undermining that will suit China.
It is worth noting that multinational EU / US drug manufacturers who are hardest with the cheap Indian generic drugs, started a smear campaign in Africa that Indian generic drugs are fake. They forgot to mention that the fake ones are MADE IN CHINA.
How India helps : It costs about $15,000 a year to treat a patient with patented medicines. But the cost of the same treatment with generic drugs is just $300.
the Indian industry supplies quality drugs at one-tenth the cost of patented drugs. Over 15 per cent of India’s drug exports go to Africa. “And nearly a fifth of Africa’s $4.86 billion drug imports imports annually are from India.
A worthy target for economic terrorism. As China tries to increase its sphere of influence deeper into Africa, probably it makes economic sense to kill off India's entry to other sectors including oil, gas, coal, gemstones, other industries by sullying its name.
Pakistan’s ISI has systematically tried to weaken India by supporting insurgencies in India, opening of caste and religious divide in the society and also good old terrorism in Kashmir and elsewhere. Where it has played with finesse is in the counterfeiting department.
Before this, I cannot resist a little history : OPERATION BERNHARD
Only a fortnight after the start of World War II, at a meeting that has remained a secret for more than half a century, officials of German finance and Nazi espionage approved an audacious plot to bring down the world's financial system. Hundreds of millions of forged British pounds were to become a weapon of war. Operation Bernhard not only became the greatest counterfeit scheme in history but the most wide-ranging and bizarre, with its own gallery of rogues.
COUNTERFEIT £5 NOTE MADE BY THE NAZIS
Major Bernhard Krueger, a meticulously correct SS engineer, ran a production line of Jewish prisoners in Sachsenhausen concentration camp near Berlin. The millions of forged notes they printed were laundered through a Nazi confidence man with the help of Jewish agents who concealed their origins. Toward the end, one of Europe 's most accomplished professional forgers, the only career criminal in the operation, was brought in to counterfeit dollar bills.
Bernhard Krueger as a young SS officer (left), and in a mug shot taken by the British after the war. Photo Credit: British National Archives
In London, the arrogant grandees at the Bank of England could not believe their pound notes could be forged with such expertise and in such quantity. Even George Soros, the great speculator who broke the Bank of England fifty years later, almost got bilked as a boy on the Budapest black market. In one of the crowning ironies of many, after the war Golda Meir protected a millionaire Jewish money-launderer from British authorities in what was then known as Palestine.
The plot was hatched in Berlin on September 18, 1939, behind the imposing stone facade of what had once been Kaiser Wilhelm's Finance Ministry. Walther Funk, a pudgy former financial journalist whose principal task was keeping German industry in Hitler's camp, was the only one to register the least objection because he feared the counterfeit notes would upset his task of milking Hitler's conquered territories. Josef Goebbels, Hitler's propaganda minister, was not present but feared the "grotesque plan" might be turned against Germany 's own fragile finances by the Allies. In fact, Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt toyed with the idea of counterfeiting enemy currency but their advisers rejected it.
Nevertheless, the minds of Nazi espionage believed they could weaken the pound as the trading standard and store of value underpinning the British Empire. Bullies and incompetents were at first put in charge of the operation. After several false starts, Krueger, a textile engineer, figured out how to match the paper, printing, and design of the impressive British notes. He found his forgers in Jewish death camps on the orders of SS Reichsfuehrer Heinrich Himmler. Some were plucked from Auschwitz by Krueger himself, who courteously addressed them with the formal German Sie.
The SS planned to keep the operation secret by killing them when the job was done. The prisoners worked with the knowledge that they were marked for death when they had finished their jobs. " From the start, they wondered whether they should stretch out their work and risk execution for sabotage, or perform efficiently and thus hasten their own deaths. No one ever knew for sure where Krueger stood, but by keeping the operation going, he kept himself from being sent to the Russian front. What all these men said and thought as they lived under this sword of Damocles makes chilling, personal drama.
From 1942 to 1945, the Germans forged more pound notes than all the reserves in the vaults of the Bank of England--132 million pounds, equal to about 15 per cent of all genuine notes in circulation and enough to cast suspicion on all of England 's paper money. They were worth $650 million at the wartime rate of exchange and six or seven billion dollars in today's money.
By 1943 the Luftwaffe was almost kaput, so instead of pursuing their original goal of dropping the counterfeits on England to cast suspicion on real pound notes, the SS used the fakes to finance its own espionage service--whose discoveries Hitler ignored like all bad news--and to undermine and eventually absorb the German military's own intelligence corps. The SS specialized mainly in dirty tricks and, true to the nature of the Nazis' gangster regime, in skimming money to enrich themselves. So many counterfeit pounds flooded the black markets on the European continent and North Africa that Britain's currency came under widespread suspicion abroad, and its value plunged.The British defense was as weak as it was unprecedented. Normally nations at war guard their currency by prohibiting its export. Instead, the British imposed a wartime blockade on bringing pounds into the country to prevent the counterfeits from infecting the economy. Scotland Yard was powerless, and so was Interpol. Its Vienna headquarters had fallen into Hitler's hands when he swallowed Austria in 1938. The Nazis even fooled Swiss bankers, whom the British left swinging in the wind rather than let their secret defenses against counterfeits become known.
By the end of the war, Operation Bernhard had left its imprint. Through one of the Jewish money launderers, the Jewish underground passed on thousands of counterfeits to help the ingathering of exiles to Palestine and the purchase of war materiel for the nascent Israeli army. The Bank of England was so embarrassed by the massive counterfeit that it not only burned the fakes but some of its files. In the continuing and futile search for Nazi loot and bank records deep in the Alpine lakes where the SS dumped millions of forged bills, the financial and political ripples continued into this century.
PAKISTAN:
Times of India: Though the role of Pakistani intelligence agency ISI in printing and circulation of FICN (Fake Indian Currency Notes) has never been a secret, sleuths recently found that the spy agency had, of late, impressed upon the government in Islamabad to import additional currency-standard printing paper from companies located in London to pursue its nefarious designs in India.
Pakistan has been procuring currency-standard printing paper in huge quantities from London-based companies — much higher than normal requirement of the country for printing its own currency — for diverting it to print FICN.
The ISI has, in fact, been using state air-carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to tansport counterfeit currency to its conduits in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, sources in investigating agencies said.
The modus operandi of the ISI was revealed by two Nepali counterfeit currency traffickers who were arrested by Thailand police in October 2008. During interrogation, the accused disclosed that they were working for a prominent Nepali businessman who was the son of a former minister in King Gyanendra's regime. “The fact that Nepali territory is being used by Pakistanis to smuggle counterfeit currency is well known. The first such expose was made when Pakistani diplomats were caught distributing FICN in Nepal,” an official said.
According to a recent Government estimate, counterfeit currency amounting to Rs 169,000 crore (USD 36,000 MILLION) is floating around in the Indian financial system. From real estate transactions to ordinary grocery shopping, these bogus notes are being deployed everyday — sometimes innocently, sometimes with a sinister objective. “In 2008, the CBI registered 13 cases having international/ inter-State ramifications relating to the recovery/ seizure of fake Indian currency notes,” says Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) spokesperson Harsh Bhal.
Intelligence agencies see the counterfeit rupee attack as a form of “economic terrorism”. They have traced many of the fake currency operations back to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its ancillary crime syndicates such as the Dawood Ibrahim gang. With a multi-layered network in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka and also inside India, counterfeit notes enter India in all three ways — through land, sea and air.
Intelligence officials say the ISI uses terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) to smuggle and circulate counterfeit currency in India.
Dangerously, the counterfeiters have managed to find their way into the official banking system. “Perhaps there is no better way to pummel India’s economy,” says an intelligence official. He explains the modus operandi. Fake currency operatives usually deposit the notes during peak hours when bank tellers are pressed for time and liable to make mistakes.
Fake currency amounting to nearly Rs 3 crore was found in the chest of the State Bank of India’s Domariaganj branch in Uttar Pradesh’s Siddarthnagar district. Some fake notes were also found in the currency chest of ICICI Bank’s Sanjay Place branch in Agra. The examples can go on.
Where are the fake notes printed? A CBI report to the Finance Ministry suggested that the Pakistan Government printing press in Quetta (Baluchistan) was churning out large quantities of counterfeit Indian currency.
Karachi’s security press, and two other presses in Lahore and Peshawar, have also been suspected.
The fine quality of Pakistan-produced fake currency has alarmed India. Printed on security paper, the sophistication and craftsmanship is of a high order. “Only a specialist can make out the notes as counterfeit,” says an intelligence official. The fake notes duplicate serial numbers and floral designs of genuine notes. In addition, they even have the security wire or “guide wire” — the common man’s mode of authenticating a currency note.
However, in the larger reckoning, the problem remains. If and when India does decide to take action against Pakistan-based terror, it may find that it is not enough to destroy merely military camps. A certain currency printing press in Quetta may also need to be blown up!
CHINA:
China loses no chance to undermine India at international for a, be if for surreptitious moves during the Nuclear Deal or blocking Maulana Massod’s Azhar’s terrorist tag in the UN (though this was together with UK) or the more blatant vetoing of ADB loan of US$60 million to India because there was a reference to Arunachal Pradesh.
But what takes the cake is this Nigerian Tribune News dated 6th June 2009. It states: “A clearing agent(names withheld) has been apprehended by the National Agency for Food, Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) over his involvement in the importation of fake malaria drugs (Maloxine and Amalar tablets) worth N32.1million.
He was arrested at Kirikiri Terminal in Lagos while attempting to clear a container load of the drugs marked PCIU 2184458 which was imported by Divine Favour Overseas limited of 41, Tejuosho Street, Yaba.
According to the Director-Genral of NAFDAC, Dr. Paul Orhii, who disclosed this at a press conference in Lagos on Monday, the arrest and subsequent seizure of the drugs followed a text message from an informant on the development.
He said the fake products were produced in China but labelled “Made in India,” adding that the laboratory analysis of the drugs had revealed that it lacked an important active ingredient called pyrimenthamine.
The NAFDAC boss said the seizure was significant in view of the emergence of resistance strain of malaria parasites, saying the use of the fake drugs might lead to treatment failure, anaemia and death if no effective drug was given after.”
Bear in mind, The Indian pharmaceutical industry’s exports to Africa are worth $1,065 million a year and undermining that will suit China.
It is worth noting that multinational EU / US drug manufacturers who are hardest with the cheap Indian generic drugs, started a smear campaign in Africa that Indian generic drugs are fake. They forgot to mention that the fake ones are MADE IN CHINA.
How India helps : It costs about $15,000 a year to treat a patient with patented medicines. But the cost of the same treatment with generic drugs is just $300.
the Indian industry supplies quality drugs at one-tenth the cost of patented drugs. Over 15 per cent of India’s drug exports go to Africa. “And nearly a fifth of Africa’s $4.86 billion drug imports imports annually are from India.
A worthy target for economic terrorism. As China tries to increase its sphere of influence deeper into Africa, probably it makes economic sense to kill off India's entry to other sectors including oil, gas, coal, gemstones, other industries by sullying its name.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
TIME TO TEACH CHINA A LESSON
13th November 2008 : China made a direct request to India for blocking the proposed six-day meeting organised by the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala from November 17 to discuss the future of Tibet. Significance of Tibet.
Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: “Anyone who participates in the meeting being organised by the Dalai Lama will not be liked by the Chinese people. The Chinese government is against anyone trying to split the nation or raise such an issue in the international arena. The Indian government has made solemn commitment about not allowing any anti-China activities on its soil. We hope that the commitment will be implemented.”
The Dalai Lama invoked article 59 of the Tibetan Charter that empowers him to call a 'Special Meeting' to discuss the future course of action as his envoys returned empty handed after secret meetings with Chinese government representatives. The past few weeks has seen the Tibetan leader complaining that he had "given up" on China and that his "faith in the Chinese government is thinning."
The "special meeting" to be held in Dharamshala will be attended by past and present members of the cabinet in his government-in-exile, past and present members of the Tibetan parliament in exile, representatives of non-government organisations and intellectuals interested in the Tibetan issue.
INDIA MUST NOT STOP THIS “SPECIAL MEETING”.
Chinese aggression on ground and verbal diktats are no longer welcome. It is time India behaved like a powerful nation and rapped the knuckles of these "interfering" Chinese.
30TH September 2008: The wall of mistrust continues to be an impediment in Indo-China relations. Intrusions by the Chinese forces continue unabated into Indian territory despite attempts by a red-faced South Block to brush them under the carpet.
The most recent incursion occurred on September 30 at the Burste post in the Ladakh sector along the Sino-Indian boundary. Soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered 15 km into India.
While the transgression itself was unacceptable, the Chinese captured the patrolling base hut of Indian forces who were not present at the outpost. The patrolling base was burnt and rations and other equipment stolen. In another incident a fortnight ago, the Chinese PLA confronted Indian soldiers and asked them to “vacate Chinese sovereign territory”.
THE CHINESE AUDACITY IS A DIRECT FUNCTION OF INDIA'S IMPOTENT RESPONSE.
Recent example of this. Chinese Premier himself gave assurances to the Indian Prime Minister that China will not obstruct India's entry in the Nuclear Supplier's Group but it did exactly that. Instead of being in the forefront, China aligned itself with countries that were opposing India's entry into the NSG by playing an active role inside the room with these dissenting nations. When Indian PM tried calling up the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao - Jiabao refused to take the call - such was the audacity. It was only when George Bush telephoned the Chinese Premier, that China relented.
While an all out war with China is a very remote possibility,more so to do with Himalayas and geography (as opposed to history), however there are clear Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 of possible local "war" with China.
Alarmingly, according to a report sent to National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, the incursions tally has increased to 213 incidents, up from 170 reported last year. While the Chinese continue to maintain an aggressive posture, India’s diplomatic response has been weak and tardy, which is certainly not the way an aspiring power behaves.”
The Chinese foreign ministry recently challenged external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee's claim that Arunachal is an integral part of India. Foreign Minister Qin said that Mukherjee's statement was contrary to historical facts as China does not accept the MacMohan Line and the border between the two nations has not yet been demarcated.
McMahon Line : The McMahon line runs through the eastern Himalayas and constitutes a psychological border between India and China. Drawn up and agreed to during by British India and Manchu China, its subsequent repudiation by China made it the major irritant plaguing the relations the two countries. Sir Henry McMahon, British India’s foreign secretary, drew this 1,360km border on a map at the 1914 Simla Convention attended by British, Tibetan and Chinese delegates, thereby adding 129,500 sq km to India. Though Mr Chen I-fan, the Chinese representative, initialled the map, his government disavowed it. China has never recognised the McMahon Line.
Chinese duplicity is its stock foreign policy. For example China’s stance on India’s annexation of Sikkim: the Chinese government did not accept India’s annexation of Sikkim for over two decades in spite of the fact that Sikkim was nowhere near the McMahon line which China first accepted and then unilaterally repudiated.
Bhutan incursions: There is a deep-seated fear in Indian defense circles that Chinese troop movements in Bhutan near the strategic Chumbi Valley are dangerously close to the Siliguri Corridor, aka India's chicken neck, which separates India proper from its restive northeast and is a mere 13 miles to 25 miles wide, making India extremely vulnerable to a territorial cutoff. A Chinese move into Dolam means that India’s border with China gets distorted at Sikkim’s tri-point with Bhutan. It also means that Chinese forces move a few kilometres south from where they originally were. It brings them closer to North Bengal’s Siliguri Corridor. China has always laid claim to Dolam. There is a suspicion that it has now extended its claim line.
TIBET:
Through out the brief history of territorial dispute between India and China, India chose to be on the defensive side for all the wrong reasons. India failed to use the ‘Tibet card’ as a bargaining chip in the territorial negotiation with China. China knows it very well that India would not dare raise the issue of Tibet either on international plate form or in bilateral talks. The Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh was based on the history of Tibet, not on Chinese history. Historically Tibet owned the large territories of present day Arunachal Pradesh, especially the Tawang district. However, India on the other hand also has a historically attested reason to claim over Arunachal Prasesh. Ironically it is also based on Tibetan history.
With the demise of the Manchu dynasty in China in 1912, the Thirteenth Dalai lama drove out the Ambans, the Manchu emperor’s representatives in Tibet and their security forces out of Tibet and declared Tibet as an independent sovereign nation.
ARUNACHAL PRADESH:
In 1914 British tried to mediate a negotiation between Tibet and China to settle the political status of Tibet and territorial dispute between Tibet and China. China declined to sign the treaty. With a failure to resolve Sino-Tibet dispute, British decided to settle the Indo-Tibet border directly with Tibet. On July 3rd 1914 the British foreign secretary Sir Henry McMohan and the Tibetan government representative Lonchen Shatra signed the Simla Convention. They accepted the McMohan Line, which accorded Tawang to British India, as an officially accepted boundary between the two nations. The actual map showing the McMohan Line as a boundary between Tibet and India was published by Survey of India in 1937. In 1954 India officially called the territories accorded to her side of the McMohan Line NEFA- North East Frontier Agency. To consolidate her claim over NEFA, in 1972 India gave it an Indian name, Arunachal Pradesh, which remained a Union Territory of the Central Government of India until 1987. In 1987 Arunachal Pradesh formally became an Indian state.
AGGRESSIVE DIPLOMACY:
India must be aggressive diplomatically with a fresh and more insightful foreign policy in dealing with China. The best card India can use to bargain with China is Tibet. Nothing perturbs China diplomatically more than Tibet and Tibet is not a dead issue yet. India is a host nation to Tibetan government in Exile and home to the Dalai Lama, accepted leader of the Tibetan people inside and outside Tibet. With India’s initiative more and more countries will come forward to join India to raise Tibet on the international platform. Hollywood is smitten with Tibet - need to bring it to realistic levels to choke CHINA.
BACK TO 1962: Nehru was smitten into the "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" concept. The Govt of India, with Krishna Menon as Defence Minister, was least interested in defence preparedness - he and Nehru refused to believe that China is an enemy. Ordnance factories were manufacturing coffee percolators and toasters, because they had “extra spare capacity”. (CAN YOU IMAGINE THIS - COFFEE PERCOLATORS AND TOASTERS AND NOT AMMUNITION).
AGGRESSIVE POSTURING:
Look at the population map of China above. See how sparsely it is populated around Tibetian region. The Chinese fear is this: If China were to withdraw from Tibet, and there were no military hindrance to population movement, Beijing fears this population could migrate into Tibet. If there were such a migration, Tibet could turn into an extension of India and, over time, become a potential beachhead for Indian power.
It is the Chinese fear that is forcing them to behave aggressively around their weakness. India should play around these Chinese fears and make it a reality for them.
8 steps :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims. Tibetians have a valid fear : that the Chinese have tried to alter the demographic balance of Tibet by settling Han Chinese there, that it wishes to assimilate the religious and cultural distinctiveness of Tibetan identity into a larger Chinese identity.
6. Give Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissension.
8. How can India take over Mt Kailash – ordained as a religious site in Indian Vedic texts, now in Tibet (China)? Well India will not, Tibet will. And Tibet being hostlile to China will lease or hand over the region to India. Hence India should start preparing the Tibetians for armed struggle against the Chinese. Tibet is the soft underbelly and a strong guirella force of 50,000 battle hardened (taken from ITBP and infiltrated back to China) would cause enough unrest. Simultaneously help mass uprisings in Chinese villages against mainland city centric China. India's goal should be Tibetian independence.
Chinese navy is today weaker than Japanese navy and of course the US Navy. However, in 15 years, Chinese navy will be a force to reckon with. Gwadar is a port in Pakistan that can base Chinese naval ships and play three roles:
i) safeguard Chinese oil shipment to mainland China,
ii) threaten Indian navy and mainland India and
iii) provide a security blanket around Pakistan.
Do we wait for this to play out and forever alter our dealings not only with China but also Pakistan? The clear answer = NO.
Ancient Indian thinkers produced two schools of war, diplomacy and interstate relations; the dharmayuddha (ethical warfare) school; and the kutayuddha (devious warfare) school. The two schools were, however, not mutually exclusive. Chanakya scores of Sun Tzu many times over.
Buddhism is India’s cultural gift to Tibet and China. We win nations through culture and that is our primary way. Kutayuddha as a means of last resort - with China we have come to that last resort !
FLAG OF INDEPENDENT TIBET.
THE GOAL IS : TIBETIAN INDEPENDENCE. ANYTHING LESS IS NOT IN INDIA’S LONG TERM INTERESTS.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
CPI(M) = CHINESE PARTY OF INDIA (MARXIST) ??
The bonhomie between China and the Bengali Marxists continue. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi inaugurated the Chinese consulate in Kolkata on Sunday 7th September 2008. CPI(M) manages to, deliberately or not, look like the Chinese foreign policy arm in India. It is not only the NSG, but its entire likes and dislikes mirror that of the Chinese.
But does the opening of the new consulate portend growing friendliness between India and China. Far from it : NSG & CHINA – In 3 steps below.
1. High drama at NSG : India is miffed at China antagonistic role at the Nuclear Supplier’s group where China asked for Indian parity with Pakistan and requested additional resources from New Delhi which India may have considered very demeaning and akin to extracting a pound of flesh at a critical juncture.
2. When the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to call the Chinese President Hu Jintao, the Chinese refused to take the call of the Indian Prime Minister and continued to snub the PM until the Americans intervened.
3. All the Indians could do was sulk. In retaliation, the angry Sonia Gandhi refused to see the Chinese Foreign Minister. To intimidate China, India last week announced the resurrection of forward air-force bases in the Northeast and Northwest.
A Pakistani think tank report stated : Beijing is ready to offer Pakistan a similar Nuclear deal that India got from the US. However Indian analysts who do not understand Chinese-Pakistani relations are expecting a public signing of a Pakistani-Sino deal in the same fashion as the Indo-US deal was announced. China and Pakistan work at different levels. The major difference is the Chinese Nuclear deal does not come with any strings and is cheaper. China has already built the Chasnupp 1 and the Chasnupp 2. To avoid a lot of publicity, the last time Pakistan and China worked out a nuclear deal (Chasnupp 2) it was announced without any pomp and ceremony.
An upgrade to the Gwader-China road and rail link is expected to bring huge benefits to the FATA that has already been signed between the two countries.
India today can block Chinese ships in the Indian ocean and this may prove decisive in any conflict with the Chinese. The Chinese do not have any aircraft carriers, but they will in 5 to 10 years time. Gwadar port in Pakistan gives them a chocking point with which to strangulate India with its “bead of pearls”. India may have constructed Chabahar port in Iran, but will it be enough?
The sad truth is that India is losing influence to the Chinese amongst all its neighbours, barring Bhutan.
Pakistan is long gone to the Chinese.
Nepal has a Maoist government sympathetic to China, its Premier visited China first in a break of protocol. India used to be the first port of call.
Chinese have started supplying missiles and launch pads to Bangladesh. The Chinese have supplied C-802A anti ship cruise missiles to Bangladesh which have a 120 kms range. With superior anti-jamming facilities, it hit ratio is an exceptional 98%.
The Chinese have supplied sophisticated 3D radars to Sri Lanka. To add insult to injury, Sri Lankan army has started buying Pakistani weapons using Iranian money. India supplied 2 D radars and clearly managed this game badly. We should have offered 3 D radars and avoided this.
Having said that, given the chaos in Kashmir and in Pakistan, India is faced with an extremely cunning and hostile China.
However, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Chinese to attack India and win a war (I will give a Stratfor article that will explain all this excellently), but they can take Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, and that will be a major psychological blow for India. Some battles are not won in the battlefields only!
India’s options :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims.
6. Giving Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissenstion.
Given the population graph, India can go into China and take Mt. Kailash – it is India’s and ordained in our sacred texts. It is a price the Chinese should be made to pay for sitting on Aksai Chin. Sometimes, one has to shed inhibitions and project force. Psy-ops cannot be one sided.
And CPI(M) should be made to understand once and for all, CHINA is NOT A FRIEND OF INDIA. Not at all !!!
But does the opening of the new consulate portend growing friendliness between India and China. Far from it : NSG & CHINA – In 3 steps below.
1. High drama at NSG : India is miffed at China antagonistic role at the Nuclear Supplier’s group where China asked for Indian parity with Pakistan and requested additional resources from New Delhi which India may have considered very demeaning and akin to extracting a pound of flesh at a critical juncture.
2. When the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to call the Chinese President Hu Jintao, the Chinese refused to take the call of the Indian Prime Minister and continued to snub the PM until the Americans intervened.
3. All the Indians could do was sulk. In retaliation, the angry Sonia Gandhi refused to see the Chinese Foreign Minister. To intimidate China, India last week announced the resurrection of forward air-force bases in the Northeast and Northwest.
A Pakistani think tank report stated : Beijing is ready to offer Pakistan a similar Nuclear deal that India got from the US. However Indian analysts who do not understand Chinese-Pakistani relations are expecting a public signing of a Pakistani-Sino deal in the same fashion as the Indo-US deal was announced. China and Pakistan work at different levels. The major difference is the Chinese Nuclear deal does not come with any strings and is cheaper. China has already built the Chasnupp 1 and the Chasnupp 2. To avoid a lot of publicity, the last time Pakistan and China worked out a nuclear deal (Chasnupp 2) it was announced without any pomp and ceremony.
An upgrade to the Gwader-China road and rail link is expected to bring huge benefits to the FATA that has already been signed between the two countries.
India today can block Chinese ships in the Indian ocean and this may prove decisive in any conflict with the Chinese. The Chinese do not have any aircraft carriers, but they will in 5 to 10 years time. Gwadar port in Pakistan gives them a chocking point with which to strangulate India with its “bead of pearls”. India may have constructed Chabahar port in Iran, but will it be enough?
The sad truth is that India is losing influence to the Chinese amongst all its neighbours, barring Bhutan.
Pakistan is long gone to the Chinese.
Nepal has a Maoist government sympathetic to China, its Premier visited China first in a break of protocol. India used to be the first port of call.
Chinese have started supplying missiles and launch pads to Bangladesh. The Chinese have supplied C-802A anti ship cruise missiles to Bangladesh which have a 120 kms range. With superior anti-jamming facilities, it hit ratio is an exceptional 98%.
The Chinese have supplied sophisticated 3D radars to Sri Lanka. To add insult to injury, Sri Lankan army has started buying Pakistani weapons using Iranian money. India supplied 2 D radars and clearly managed this game badly. We should have offered 3 D radars and avoided this.
Having said that, given the chaos in Kashmir and in Pakistan, India is faced with an extremely cunning and hostile China.
However, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Chinese to attack India and win a war (I will give a Stratfor article that will explain all this excellently), but they can take Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, and that will be a major psychological blow for India. Some battles are not won in the battlefields only!
India’s options :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims.
6. Giving Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissenstion.
Given the population graph, India can go into China and take Mt. Kailash – it is India’s and ordained in our sacred texts. It is a price the Chinese should be made to pay for sitting on Aksai Chin. Sometimes, one has to shed inhibitions and project force. Psy-ops cannot be one sided.
And CPI(M) should be made to understand once and for all, CHINA is NOT A FRIEND OF INDIA. Not at all !!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
