BDR MUTINY IN BANGLADESH – AN ATTEMPT BY PAKISTAN TO ERASE THE 1971 GENOCIDE

MASS GRAVE IN DHAKA CAUSED BY BDR MUTINY, 2009.

1971 – Role of Pakistan Army’s genocide in Bangladesh

To understand the context for the present crisis, we need to look back at the bloody birth of Bangladesh. In 1970, Bangladesh was part of united Pakistan. During the 1970 general elections, the Bengalis of Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) won an overwhelming majority, electing Sheikh Mujib to Prime Minister of Pakistan. Alarmed at the thought of being ruled by their racial inferiors from East Pakistan(EVEN TODAY PAKISTANIS VIEW THE SHORT STATURED DARKER BANGLADESHIS AS RACIALLY INFERIOR), the Pakistan army cancelled the results of the election and launched a brutal crackdown. In the mass genocide that followed, 3 Million Bengalis were killed and 10 Million became refugees in India.


PAKISTAN ARMY SURRENDER

The war that followed - Pakistan was soundly defeated in 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh, the retreat of Pakistan was marred by charges of genocide and brutality that were so horrifying and cruel that Pakistan itself chose to bury the findings of report of this massacre.

HAMOOD-UR-RAHMAN REPORT



In December 1971, within a week of replacing General Yahya as the President, Bhutto formed a commission headed by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Justice Hamood-ur-Rahman. The Commission's responsibility was to ascertain the facts of the 1971 debacle.

Originally there were 12 copies of the Report. These were all destroyed; expect the one that was handed over to Z. A. Bhutto. Though the Report remained classified, till its contents were made public in 2002.

The Hamood-ur-Rahman Report's findings accuse the Pakistan Army of carrying out senseless and wanton arson, killings in the countryside, killing of intellectuals and professionals and burying them in mass graves, killing of Bengali Officers and soldiers on the pretence of quelling their rebellion, killing East Pakistani civilian officers, businessmen and industrialists, raping a large number of East Pakistani women as a deliberate act of revenge, retaliation and torture, and deliberate killing of members of the Hindu minority.

NIGHTS & DAYS OF PAKISTANI BUTCHERS – ABUL KASEM (BANGLADESH)

I beseech every reader to read his real life accounts of by clicking here.

On the last para Abul writes: “As I write this re-count, I learnt that 100 new 'killing fields' have been discovered all around Bangladesh. Was I surprised? No, not at all! However, what surprised me the most was why did it take so long?

Why did we have to wait almost 30 years to know that innocent folks were butchered just as cattle? Rest assured that many more killing fields will be found. The killing fields of Cambodia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Afghanistan, etc., will be nothing when compared to the killing fields in Bangladesh. Let us not forget these killing fields. Let us not forget the sacrifice of 3 million people who shed enough blood to change the verdure of monsoon drenched land of Bengal. They certainly gave their lives so that we can enjoy the fruits of freedom. Freedom from the tyranny of Punjabi masters and Pakistani Oligarchy. I would ask every Bangalees not to forget the butchers of those nights and days when we remember the fallen angels of our land. The crime should never go unpunished.”

Seeing his writing, one Major Kashif from Pakistan Army wrote to Abul: (excerpts)-

From: kashif khan <kashifkhan29@hotmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, 7 August 2005 1:43:11 AM
To: abul88@hotmail.com
Subject: friendship

“d. Why we always spread hatred now, even u have got ur free country.
e. I normally go through all the papers concerning East Pakistan crises and i always found a hatred towards Pakistan Army from u my bengali brothers. Why.
f. i m from the same Pakistan Army, i have done nothing to u. Granted my forefathers must have done something, well i seek apologies on their behalf because i cannot do any thing at this time except for seeking apologies.
g. why cant we forget those follies which were committed by my forefathers as well as ur forefathers.”

REPLY FROM ABUL KASEM:

To get an idea of how your favourite army killed uncountable innocents and burnt thousands of our villages, may I request you to go through page 91 of the famous document "Witness to Surrender" by Pakistani Brig. Siddque Salik?

Now, please tell me:

How can we ever forgive and forget an army whose soldiers indiscriminately killed our young children and old people? I can tell you for certainty that there is probably not a single family in BD (Bangladesh) who has not lost at least one close or distant relation in the gratuitous murder committed by the Jawans of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

How can we forgive and forget those soldiers who raped our mothers, sisters, wives and daughters? They perpetrated this Islamic rape (to use their terminology) to around 400,000 of our women. The Islamic army of Pakistan regarded our women as captives (ganimatter maal), and, as per Islamic law, they were entitled to have sex with them. Please tell me how could we tolerate and forget such calumnious, debauched rectitude of Pakistani Jawans and Officers?

How can we forgive an army who treated us like they were treating animals and cattle? They believed, Allah had permitted them to kill all the unbelievers living in BD. This, of course, included almost the entire Bengali race, who, according to general Yahya Khan, were not true Muslims and, so, were fair game for the genocide. I have written an elaborate essay on this.

And, how can we forgive a nation that has not, as yet, given to us what rightfully belonged to us?

Please answer me: If you had gone through what we Bengalis had suffered for nine months, would you have forgiven the perpetrators of rape, loot and arson? Do you think that by forgiving your great Muslim army, we would be able to forget the atrocities they committed when we were helpless and unarmed?

Are you trying to absolve your nation of the assets it owes to us by seeking our forgiveness?

Let the Pak-Govt pay us back, as was on 26 March 1971 (A) half of the State-Bank reserve (B) Half of PIA, (C) Half of Pakistan National Shipping Corporation and all other national resources. Don't you think this is just fair, Islamically speaking? - as you claim to be a very good Muslim?

Only when these are settled, could we talk of peace and reconciliation. Our hearts and minds will burn for ever, for what Pakistan army did to us in the name of Islam and the so-called Islamic brotherhood, which were just the tools of exploitation and oppression for the simple-minded and gullible Bengali people. We shall never ever let this happen to us again.

To the Pakistan army, India is the eternal enemy. This is not true for us. We can, and we are, living quite amicably with India. We never forget the help Indian government and the its common people accorded us generously when Pakistan army was killing us. Please know that India is not our enemy, it can never be. We shall, for ever, remain grateful to India and its citizens to let us survive when your Islamic brothers were slaughtering us.”

BuA: In my numerous trips to Dhaka, the above sentiment is nearly all pervasive and being a Bengali myself, I speak the same language as Bangladeshis. And during my work, I wanted to meet the person I will vilify shortly, Salahuddin Qader Chowdhury – however he just refused to meet me after he came to know I was from India.

In that fight for freedom there were elements in Bangladesh that sided with the Paskistan Army – they were Jamaat e Islami, Al Badr & Razakars amongst others.



The Razakars were officially created by the Pakistani military and trained and paid by the government of Pakistan should not be forgotten - and will become an important element in any future genocide trial.

The history of 1971 and the Bangladesh Genocide is under attack from revisionists and genocide deniers. The victims of this attack will be the younger generation of Bangladeshis unless there is an attempt to preserve that history.

Razakars: (1970) They are paid Rs. 3 a day (25 pence at the official rate) and receive seven days’ training which appears to consist entirely of learning how to shoot a police Lee-Enfield rifle. Their work consists of “security checks” - guiding the West Pakistan troops to the homes of supporters of the Awami League. They are supposed to be under the orders of local `peace committees” which are selected by the military authorities on a similar basis of “loyalty to Pakistan”. These people are, in fact, representatives of the political parties - were routed at the last elections, with an admixture of men with criminal records and bigoted Muslims who have been persuaded that strong arm methods are needed to protect their religion.



ASSASINATION OF SHEIKH MUJIBUR RAHMAN:



NOVEMBER 8, 1998 could well be a turning point in Bangladesh's history. On that day, Kazi Gulam Rasul, a District and Sessions Court judge of Dhaka, sentenced to death by firing squad in public 15 former Army officers, the "self-confessed killers" of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, 23 years after the country's founding father was assassinated in a military coup that overthrew Bangladesh's first Government. Mujibur Rahman was brutally murdered along with 26 others, including his wife, three sons (one of them was just 10 years old), two daughters-in-law, brother, close relatives, political associates and security men in a pre-dawn attack on August 15, 1975.

The historic verdict, which was delivered after 17 months of hearings, came at the end of an agonising trial. The "Bangabandhu murder case" - as it is called - was filed in October 1996, more than 21 years after the assassination took place and four months after the Awami League Government led by Sheikh Hasina, one of Mujibur Rahman's two surviving daughters, assumed office.

The shame that accompanied the killings was deepened by the proclamation in 1975 of the Indemnity Ordinance by the military government of Khandaker Mostaque Ahmed, who appointed himself President of the country following Mujibur Rahman's assassination. The infamous Ordinance was incorporated in the Constitution by President Gen. Ziaur Rahman. The Ordinance granted indemnity from prosecution to those who plotted for and participated in the bloody political changeover.

However, the Shiekh Hasina Government, after it assumed office in June 1996, sought the opinion of a panel of judges and legal experts and cleared the hurdles in the way of prosecution of the plotters. In October 1996, cases were filed against 19 persons in connection with the assassination. All but one of the accused were former military personnel.

WHAT IS THE PRESENT SITUATION?

Sheikh Hasina, one of the two surviving daughters of the assassinated Mujibur Rahman is the Prime Minister of Bangladesh today, having secured over 2/3 majority in the Parliament. She wanted to put on trial the 1971 collaborators.
If one looks at the collaborators – they were Bangladeshis who sided with Pakistan Army.

Hence, Pakistan has told Bangladesh that the “time is not ripe” for Dhaka’s conducting the trial of ‘war criminals’ who committed atrocities on civilians during the 1971 freedom movement.

Islamabad is very uneasy at the prospect of the war criminals trials in Bangaldesh and does not want the true story of genocide to come out in public, specially now since it is already in the eyes of the world as a “terrorist” spewing entity and home to Al-Qaeda and Taliban.

MERE COINCIDENCE OF TIMING OF MUTINY - I THINK NOT !


MATIUR RAHMAN NIZAMI

Just a few days prior to the BDR mutiny, trials had begun against the JI chief, Matiur Rahman Nizami, and nine others for "carrying out a massacre during the war of independence in 1971".

MAIN PERPETRATORS OF THE BDR MUTINY - YOU TUBE:



SALAUDDIN QADER CHOWDHURY:



The Bangladesh Liberation War Documents and a report by the people's commission appointed by the Committee for Elimination of the Killers and Collaborators of 1971 describe in horrifying details some of the brutalities Salauddin had gratuitously committed against freedom fighters in Chittagong district. These include the gruesome killing of 71-year-old principal Nutan Chandra Singha, and assassination of Farooq, a student leader and Dayalhari Biswas, another college student.

Soon after the liberation of Bangladesh, Salauddin and his father were arrested when they were about to flee to Pakistan with a maund of gold. Following a brief detention, they were let off under the general amnesty declared by the Sheikh Mujib government. Salauddin has thrived ever since on numerous heinous crimes. Killing and maiming of political opponents are his favourite pastimes.

In Khaleda Zia’s government, he was an MP. Salauddin Qader Chaudhury lets go no pretext to spit venom against India to arouse communal passions against religious minorities. He is invariably involved in every act of Hindu-cleansing in Raujan upazilla and Chittagong metropolitan areas.

It's an open secret that Salauddin has made a huge fortune through his close links with the criminal underworld and smuggling networks operating in the Chittagong port and coastal belt. Despite his pathological hatred for India, in 1991, he made a frantic bid for the GSA of the Indian Airlines and Air India. His failure to clinch that lucrative deal only sharpened his enmity towards India.

Originally a diehard Muslim Leaguer, Salauddin served as a Cabinet minister in the late Eighties in the Cabinet of Gen. Ershad. He joined the BNP just before the parliamentary election in 2001. His machinations ensured the defeat of the BNP candidate and freedom fighter Col. (Retd.) Oli Ahmed to the unofficial Jamaat candidate Shajahan Chaudhury. Despite this treachery, Begum Zia appointed him her adviser on parliamentary affairs solely for the purpose of using his unending mischief potential against the Awami League. Salauddin has been doing this task most effectively, making it impossible for the opposition Awami League to function in the Parliament.

Despite this un-edifying profile of the man, the BNP-Jamaat government has nominated Salauddin as its candidate for the post of Secretary General of the Organisation of Islamic Countries. This has triggered an avalanche of protests throughout the country. For his part, Salauddin has launched a fierce counter-offensive against his detractors. He has filed two defamation cases against the editors of two respected dailies of Dhaka for publishing criticisms of his nomination.

The Bangladesh intelligentsia has no doubt at all that the Khaleda government has nominated this war criminal for the OIC assignment at the instance of Islamabad in the hope that, should he scrape through, it would enormously increase the leverage of the Pakistan-Bangladesh axis in the Islamic world that can be used, among other things, to discomfit and disturb India.

He had the temerity to call the then opposition leader and now Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina as “bua” = housemaid.

He is the mafia owner of the port of Chittagong and runs a racket on illegal arms through his transport company. The last "ENORMOUS" haul of illegal shipment of arms in Chittagong port was pinpointed to him. The Hindu newspaper reports: The cache included 690 7.62 mm T-56-I sub-machine guns (SMGs); 600 7.62 mm T-56-2 SMGs; 150 40 mm T-69 rocket launchers; 840 40 mm rockets; 400 9 mm semi-automatic spot rifles; 100 `Tommy Guns'; 150 rocket launchers; 2,000 launching grenades; 25,020 hand grenades; 6,392 magazines of SMG and other arms; 700,000 rounds of SMG cartridges; 739,680 rounds of 7.62 mm calibre; and 400,000 cartridges of other weapons. Most of the arms and ammunition were reportedly of Korean, Italian, Chinese and American make. (And this was only part of the huge cache that were caught, the rest suspected to have reached its destination).

Independent media investigations also revealed that a labour leader linked to Jamaat-e-Islami, a major constituent of the ruling coalition, had employed workers at the jetty of the state-owned Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Limited (CUFL) to offload the arms from two fishing trawlers and a local Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader supervised the clandestine operation. BuA: This was none other than Salauddin Qader Choudhury.

Interestingly the Chittagong City Mayor and Awami League leader A.B.M. Mohiuddin Chowdhury alleged that Indian insurgent groups ran "at least 50 to 60 camps" in Bangladesh to train militants. Addressing a media conference on April 10, the Mayor claimed that the weapons were sent by the U.S. and Pakistan "to arm Indian rebels camped in Chittagong Hill Tracts" (US & PAKISTAN ???)

Amerian Chronicle reporting on the arms haul points out : "...former advisor to the Prime Minister, Salauddin Quader Chowdhury might have been involved in the arms hauls. But, none of these figures could ever be interrogated by the members of the investigations authorities, as they all are extremely influential politically in the country."

It was his fleet of trucks that were caught ferrying arms to ULFA and other terror groups in India’s north eastern corridor. No wonder, he was ISI’s favorite man in Dhaka.

He was also a “collaborator” in the 1971 and Sheikh Hasina surely would have targeted Salauddin first (the comment of bua would have instigated her no doubt).

BDR



The defense of border falls to BDR and in pay terms they draw a far lesser salary than Bangladesh Army. During Khaleda Zia’s regime, the BDR was infiltrated with fundamentalists owing allegiance to Jamaat e Islami, AL BADR, HUJI-B and other terror organizations – and overseen by Salauddin.

Seeing the trials of “war criminals” as an end of the road, both Pakistan Army (whose image will be tarnished) and Salauddin (who will get hanged, if found guilty) found common ground to stir up trouble in Bangladesh using lower level BDR recruits owing allegiance to it and using the discontent on the pay disparity as an excuse (valid, as it was).

Both Pakistan and BNP and Jamaat from time to time tried to kill of Sheikh Hasina and this was one more attempt. That Army Chief Moeen Ahmed may himself have been a target in this mutiny - for being "SECULAR" - is not ruled out either.. However this failed in the final objective and full scale of Pakistan’s links with the “mutiny” is yet to come out.

Anup Chetia, the jailed ULFA leader in Dhaka, is set to be handed over to India. Surely this could be bad news to Paksitan, as Chetia will be made to showcase the close relation ISI had with ULFA and other terror groups.

What is yet to come out is the dubious role the Bangladesh intelligence agency the DGFI played in the BDR revolt. The DGFI has sold itself lock, stock and barrel to ISI. Efforts are on to cleanse the rot, though. Read this excellent blog : DGFI & ISI plan to capture Bengal (West Bengal, INDIA) through vote machinery.

For an excellent perspective from Bangladesh - do go to these "important" blog - Shada Kalo (White & Black) & SUCHINTA (Good Thoughts).

SO THAT WE DO NOT FORGET:

CLIMATE CHANGE : THE COMING DISASTER IN BANGLADESH AND WHAT ARE INDIA'S OPTIONS?

The article is divided into 8 (small) parts.

1. What are Green House Gases (GHG)
2. What is Green house effect
3. Carbon Sinks
4. Connection of GHG to climate change
5. Impact of Climate Change
6. Kyoto Protocol
7. INDIA
8. Coming disaster in Bangladesh

Green House Gases

Green House Gases (GHG) are essentially made up of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitric Oxides (NOx) and Fluorocarabons, in the following proportion:



Since carbon di-oxide is the main component of GHG, let us concentrate on reducing this (FCs are dangerous too – but let us not make this article complicated).

What is Green house effect?

The sun’s rays hits the surface of the earth and is bounced back into the atmosphere. The Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming solar radiation. The remaining 70% is absorbed, warming the land, atmosphere and ocean.

Simply put, GHG which covers the exo-atmosphere of earth, helps retain some of the rays of the sun that is bounced back from the surface of the earth, thus keeping the earth warm. The more the concentration of GHG, the more its ability to lock heat, thus heating up the earth’s temperature. Without the GHG cover, the earth’s average temperature could be as low as −18 °C (−0.4 °F). Hence GHG is a good thing – but having too much of it is also dangerous for earth.



We emit CO2 in atmosphere when we burn fossil fuel by driving cars, using electricity, burning coal, run inefficient factories etc. As economies grow, so does its capacity in releasing CO2 in the atmosphere.

There were natural carbon sinks that used to absorb the excess CO2. However the capacity of absorption has come down.

Natural Carbon Sinks:

The main natural carbon sinks are plants, the ocean and soil. Plants grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to use in photosynthesis; some of this carbon is transferred to soil as plants die and decompose. The oceans are a major carbon storage system for carbon dioxide (as much as 33%). Marine animals also take up the gas for photosynthesis, while some carbon dioxide simply dissolves in the seawater.

Combined, the Earth’s land and ocean sinks absorb about half of all carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. But these sinks, critical in the effort to soak up some of our greenhouse gas emissions, may be stopping up, thanks to deforestation (eg. Amazon jungle), and human-induced weather changes that are causing the oceanic carbon dioxide “sponge” to weaken.

About half of the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from human activities are absorbed by natural "sinks" on land and the oceans but the new study shows that the efficiency of these sinks has fallen significantly over the past half century. Fifty years ago, for every tonne of CO2 emitted, 600kg were removed by natural sinks. In 2006, only 550kg were removed per tonne and that amount is falling. The study also found that the amount of CO2 released into the air from human activities has accelerated in recent years not just because of the growth of the global economy but because, for the first time in a century, the efficiency with which fossil fuels are used has stagnated.

Linking GHG to Climate Change: (Stern Review)

Atmospheric concentration of GHGs are already at 430 ppm (parts per million), compared to 280 ppm before the Industrial revolution, and are slated to reach 550 ppm by 2050 at current emission levels. With accelerating emissions (very likely scenario), 550 ppm will be reached by 2035 bringing in a 77% chance of exceeding 2 degree average temperature rise. This is the maximum, scientists believe we can reach before dangerous climate change impact kicks in.

Earlier we have stated, how higher the concentration of GHG, higher is the “heat trapping” ability – with the consequence of heating up the earth – known as global warming or climate change.

Average temp rise as calibrated by scientists:



Impact of Climate Change:

A temperature rise of only 3 – 4 degrees (celcius) include the following:

- Entire regions experiencing major declines in crop yields
- Sea level rise (polar ice melt due to rise in temperature) threatening whole of Bangladesh, London, Shanghai, New York, Tokyo, Cairo etc
- Collapse of Amazon rain forest
- Collapse of Gulf Stream and irreversible climate feedbacks eg – methane release
- Collapse of all the world’s major glaciers and major flood risks
- Loss of 40% of world’s species
- Major health epidemics
- Losing at least 5% global GDP each year, now and forever.

KYOTO PROTOCOL(Treaty):

The treaty is intended to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by "Annex I" (industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countries. As of 2008, 183 parties have ratified the protocol.

However the biggest emitters are not legally binded to reduce GHG (USA - yet to join, China and India exempted as they are developing nations). This is the treaty's MAJOR drawback. Most nations have not been able to curb their emissions and it will be prudent to think that while this is a step forward, this may not work.

INDIA:

Between 1998 and 2007, India has lost more people due to extreme weather events caused by climate change than any other country, with an average of 4,532 people killed every year, a well-known German NGO has calculated.

The monetary losses were an average of $12 bn a year in terms of purchasing power parity, representing 0.62 percent of India's GDP.

Stern warned that temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees – well the news is that the effect of climate change on India could be far worse than previously estimated.

Latest projections indicate that after 2050, temperatures would rise by 3-4 degrees over current levels. Given the dire warnings, this will have cataclysmic effect on INDIA. However, the country to suffer more will be our immediate neighbour – BANGLADESH.

BANGLADESH:

Bangladesh is a low-lying country with three of the greatest rivers of the world - the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. It is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with its people living in very crowded conditions in a delta of rivers that empty into the Bay of Bengal. Poverty is widespread; almost half of the population live on less than one dollar a day, and are landless.

The population of Bangladesh which was 30 million in 1947, is 157 million today.

The climate scientist predict Bangladesh will be wiped out as a nation due to flooding as a consequence of global warming, due to increase in sea level rise. Polar Ice Caps will melt exacerbating this issue. Look at the picture below:


POLAR ICE CAP MELT

The danger to Bangladesh (and yes to parts of Bengal too - certainly KOLKATA)


BANGLADESH - IN GRAVE DANGER

Look at the consequent rise in sea levels given below.



Climate change is likely to heavily hit Bangladesh by breaking down agricultural systems, which would seriously affect Bangladesh, leaving large sections of people facing malnutrition, worsening freshwater scarcity, increasing risks of fatal diseases, and triggering mass displacement due to recurring severe floods and storms like the recent Cyclone Sidr.

With sea levels rising and rivers swelling in the coming decades, vast areas of the country would disappear, sparking an exodus of climate refugees. The terrible question is, where will they go?...

THEY WILL COME TO INDIA.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO INDIA IF THIS REFUGEE MIGRATION OCCURS – THIS WILL BE A HUMANITRIAN DISASTER AND HOW CAN INDIA STOP THIS FLOW?

As it is, Assam's demographic profile has changed, Bengal is getting infiltrated massively. All these present a "vote bank", but more than that, Muslims today have a say in over 200 seats. And I am not talking about domiciled Indian Muslims only who have the right to exercise their franchise - I am talking about the vast number of illegal migrants from Bangladesh that have been given voters ID card by Congress Party in Assam and by CPI (M) in Bengal who have together brought about this situation in India today (facts acknowledged by papers).

Imagine if they could influence over 350 seats, this nation will be under Muslim rule. The day is not far when these Muslims (illegal migrants + locals) will float a Jamaat party pan India and fight elections and get a majority. What then?

To both Congress Party and CPI (M) : When you brought in illegal migrants and gave them voters ID card to win elections - did you not realize the dangers they pose to the country. And in over 50 - 60 years they will be such large numbers that they can and will float a Jamaat like political party (see this happening in different states already) - which will have pan India character. Your grand children will not forgive you for the sins of today and neither will INDIA.

Read an equally important article : 900% of Islamic growth in India's neighbourhood and its consequences.

But who will care for all this in face of an impending humanitarian disaster?

Of course the Bangladeshis need to survive too. But what India can do or should do today … next blog. Please give your ideas too !

As MAX commented - what is happening to fencing? Well, here's what the fencing looks like in most of the stretch.



Hardly any resistance to any infiltrators. I have been to Agartala recently and Bangladeshis openly cross over during the day, ply their hand held carts / rickshaws, earn daily wage and by evening cross back into Bangladesh. All this very openly and in connivance with the BSF. In fact, the open smuggling across the border has both BSF (India) and BDR (Bangladesh) connivance. Home Minister Chidambaram said that India needs to speed up on border fencing. Hon'ble Home Minister, with such blatant violations, what is the point of having these flimsy fencing?

What is needed is "Great Wall of INDIA".

This is far too important a topic I feel.

900% GROWTH OF ISLAMIC POPULATION

The growth of Islamic population, their birth rates etc have been much debated. How does it impact the rest of us? And if the growth rate is alarming, how will it impact India?

I will present this article first with a macro view and then bring in micro view which is India / Pakistan / Bangladesh centric.

Let us look at the macro view – the presence of Muslims around the world.

MACRO VIEW:

Map 1 – shows that Islam is spread all over the world, and the annual growth rate in absence of total growth rate does not give a realistic picture.


Map 2 – This is an important map as it shows the growth of Islam and this is pretty much confined to North Africa / Arab / South & South East Asia.


Map 3 – It shows the percentage of Muslims around the world. India still has overall percentage <15% (but for only a short time – we will come to this later). In a separate article I had written why Islam cannot integrate with host nations – specifically acts of arson / killing go up commensurate with the increasing % of muslims in host nations.


Map 4 & 5 – Shows the actual Muslim population in countries. See the huge number of Islamic population in the Indian sub-continent.


CLICK ON THE ABOVE MAP FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW.

On top of such a huge and growing population the Islamic states are blessed with oil. Hence, it has been the dream of some Islamic scholars and strategists that the Islamic nations should form a confederation of states and come under one banner and control this precious commodity through Unites States of Islam (USI) – a de facto Caliphate. It is interesting to see the US version of this Caliphate and the Islamic version of this Caliphate, 2050 AD. In the US version – Afghanistan and Iraq are under US control. Of course, the Islamic version has no such pretensions. I believe, if this Caliphate comes about – it will mirror the Islamic version.

Map 6 – US version on Caliphate


Map 7 – Islamic version of Caliphate


The US version feels that there is tremendous conflict within Islam and sectarianism (fight within Sunni & Shia) will never make this Caliphate a reality.

Map 8 - Distribution of Sunnis & Shias in this world.


If Sunni & Shia can be termed as brothers – there is an old Persian saying. Me, my brother and our cousin against the stranger. Then me and my brother against our cousin. Lastly, it will be me against my brother. (Hence, what is stopping brothers from making common cause against an “identified” enemy – the stranger).

If you look at both the versions – India, it seems is out of this Caliphate. However, dreamers of this Caliphate in Pakistan, view it differently - they very much see portions of India in this Caliphate.

Map 9 - World Map by population. Look at this very interesting map. The map of the world has been redrawn with same borders but with different bulge – greater the population, bigger the bulge. Look at India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh – they are huge.

CLICK ON THE ABOVE MAP FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW.

Herein, lies the second part of the story. The declining population of Europe, Japan and Russia.

To maintain a steady population, a country has to have a birth rate of 2.10. However, Western Europe has a birth rate of 1.5 – which is 30% below replacement. For a nation obsessed with sex, they are producing less children. Other than a shrinking population, these countries will see shrinking economies and a far higher tax burden on the younger generation. Europe is trying to tackle this issue by importing Muslim labourers. France and Germany today have 10% Muslim population that are growing at a far higher rate than is the “host” Christian population. This affects foreign policy of nations. Germany and France did not support the US invasion of Iraq, simply out of the fear that their Muslim population will implode on them.

Japan which has an even lower birth rate of 1.3 has tackled its issues differently. They stand to lose 60 million of its population in the next 30 years. Japan does not import labour. It simply shuts down schools and businesses. Till date, Japan has closed 2000 schools and the rate of school closure is 300 / year.

For Russia the problem has taken catastrophic proportions. Its birth rate is so low, that by 2050, THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF YEMEN. Russia sits on 1/6 of the global available land and one cannot defend such a huge territory with such a small population.

MICRO PICTURE:

Let us look at India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Even though Bangladesh was part of Pakistan in 1947, for reasons of statistics, I am taking it as a separate country. I will show the population that was there in 1947 and expected population of these countries in 2050. All figures taken from World Bank.

PAKISTAN: Population in 1947 = 30 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 300 million. A 900% growth over 103 years.

BANGLADESH: Population in 1947 = 32 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 280 million. A 775% growth over 103 years.

INDIA: Population in 1947 = 345 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 1630 million. A mere 373% growth over 103 years.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have overwhelmingly Islamic population, hence growth is wholly attributed to them.

In case of India, there is a difference of Islamic population growth rate and the Hindu population growth rate. Muslims in India accounted for 9.9% of India’s total population in 1951, 10.8% in 1971, 11.3% in 1981, 12.1% in 1991. (CENSUS FIGURES - ACTUAL FIGURE HIGHER).

Let us look at the scientific data, and try to figure out when India’s muslims become 25% of India’s total population. Will come to why this 25% is important.

Total Indian Population in 1991 = 816 million.

Indian Muslim Population in 1991 = 101 million (12.1% of total).

% Increase in Total Population since 1981 = 23.8
%
Increase in Muslim Population since 1981 = 32.8
%.

We now make a few rough, order-of-magnitude calculations of the numbers involved and their actual consequences. Using t for time, with origin at 1991, T for total Indian population and M for the population of Indian Muslims, the relevant exponential equations are:

T(t)=T(0)exp(0.24t), with T(0)=816mil
M(t)=M(0)exp(0.24t), with M(0)=101mil

Our first calculation is based on the admittedly ad-hoc assumption that India can't support a population more than double the present one. The time for population to double is obtained by solving T(t)=2T(0), and we get t=2.89. Since we are measuring time in decades, this is about 30 years. Now we find that M(2.89)=262mil, while the total will double to 1632mil, and so the Muslim fraction will be only about 16%.

Now let us look at what it would take for the Muslim fraction to reach 25%. The relevant equation is:

M(0)exp(0.33t)=0.25T(0)exp(0.24t)

Solving for t, we get t=7.81, which is about 80 years i.e. 2070.

It is reliably argued (IN BOARDROOMS) that when the Muslim population of India will reach 25% of the total population, there will be a third partition of India. (The first two gave birth to Pakistan and Bangladesh).

Which area is vulnerable to such a scenario?

A quick look will point to Assam, West Bengal and Bihar. The present population ratio of Muslims is calculated to be 28% in Assam and 25% in W. Bengal.


I am quoting from a brilliant article written by Arun Shourie – which is a must read. He states: “West Bengal accounted for 56 per cent in South and North Parganas, 48 per cent in Nadia, 52 per cent in Murshidabad, 54 per cent in Malda and about 60 per cent in Islampur sub-division of West Dinajpur. (For those who are not in the know – the above mentioned named eg: West Dinajpur etc are districts within the state of West Bengal)

A study of the border belt of West Bengal yields some telling statistics: 20-40 per cent villages in the border districts are said to be predominantly Muslim. There are indications that the concentration of the minority community, including the Bangladesh immigrants, in the villages has resulted in the majority community moving to urban centres. Several towns in the border districts are now predominantly inhabited by the majority community but surrounded by villages mostly dominated by the minority community. Lin Piao’s theory of occupying the villages before overwhelming the cities comes to mind, though the context is different. However, the basic factor of security threat in both the cases is the same.

‘‘...Figures have been given showing the concentration of Muslim population in the districts of West Bengal bordering Bangladesh starting from 24 Parganas and going up to Islampur of West Dinajpur district and their population being well over 50 per cent of the population. The Kishanganj district (of Bihar) which was part of Purnea district earlier, which is contiguous to the West Bengal area, also has a majority of Muslim population. The total population of the districts of South and North 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Nadia, Malda and West Dinajpur adds up to 27,337,362. If we add the population of Kishanganj district of Bihar of 986,672, the total comes to 28,324,034. (All figures are based on the 1991 Census.) This mass of land with a population of nearly 2.8 crores has a Muslim majority. The total population of West Bengal in 1991 was 67.9 million and of these, 28.32 million are concentrated in the border districts, with about 16-17 million population of minority community being concentrated in this area. This crucial tract of land in West Bengal and Bihar, lying along the Ganges/Hughly and west Bangladesh with a population of over 28 million, with Muslims constituting a majority, should give cause for anxiety for any thinking Indian.’’

And what if, from these figures, I had advanced two warnings.

First: ‘‘There is a distinct danger of another Muslim country, speaking predominantly Bengali, emerging in the eastern part of India in the future, at a time when India might find itself weakened politically and militarily.’’

And second "that the danger is as grave even if that third Islamic State does not get carved out in the sub-continent into a full-fledged country.”

I agree 100% with Shourie and would like to draw attention back to 2070 when this might become a reality as per statistics. However, the reality will be different. The plotters in Pakistan have re-drawn the India map and they want to see it fructify in their lifetime – and most of these are old warhorses are into their late 60s and 70s. Which means – in the next 15 years.

I have kept this article deliberately simple. There are many scenarios which can seriously complicate the above assumptions, for example:

1) detonation of a dirty bomb in Gujarat
2) nuclear attack on Israel
3) increasing riots in city centres as food becomes scarce following a draught, population keeps increasing but land mass does not
4) Shrinking shorelines due to global warming and consequent rise in water level. Will push millions of Bangladeshis in Bengal.

I give 15 years before we see very interesting and intriguing developments in our neighbourhood. Some of our politicians are hastening this process by shamelessly indulging in vote-bank politics.

And the game has started unfolding in Assam and Bengal. I had written an earlier article : BEHEADING IN BENGAL - WHAT NEXT? Another article I wrote : IS THERE A GORKHALAND? I believe this Gorkhaland agitation has been funded by ISI to wrest the "Chicken neck".

To exacerbate the split:

1)The serial blasts have taken place in Guwahati. The blasts want to split the community along religious lines - makes it easier for a future split.

2) Logically, therfore, blasts are imminent in Kolkata, Siliguri in West Bengal. It should be mentioned, Assam, Bengal and Kerela are the most communally sensitive states (as per poll). Hence, blasts here will have the desired result.

3) SIMI etc will carry on mindless killing of innocents to push forward the message: We can strike anywhere at our will and your police and intelligence are worthless in protecting you. This will psychologically wilt the population and drive it against police / army / political forces, hastening the divide.

WHAT NEXT? AND OUR RESPONSE?

Is the Dirty Bomb meant for USA / UK / INDIA & ISRAEL being made in BANGLADESH?

A couple of years back I was in Bangladesh on a business visit when the BNP government was in power. This party (BNP) is known for its anti-India and pro-Pakistan views and is very close to Jamaat and other religious bodies. Behind these are ex-Generals of Bangladesh Army that fought alongside Pakistan in the war of 1971. Tthey are extremely close to ISI and some of their MPs are known sympathizers.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Awami League party, which is essentially formed of ex-Mukti Bahini guirella soldiers who fought for the liberation of Bangladesh against Pakistan and earned their independence in 1971. India helped this group gain independence from Pakistan, hence supporters of Awami League are pro-India. (Bangladesh was part of Pakistan from 1947 to 1971 and was referred to as East Pakistan).

I had gone to a cocktail party arranged by one of my clients and in that party, a gentleman working in a very senior position in a private company in Dhaka came up and chatted with me. ( I DO NOT RECALL THE NAME OF THE GENTLEMAN OR THE COMPANY HE WORKED FOR - SO THOSE OF YOU DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE THIS STORY - FINE). After initial introductions when we were suitably alone, he had something very interesting to state and it went like this:

“I am a supporter of Awami League and I do not want Bangladesh get into the Islamic morass. There is something very fishy going on and I thought of telling you this. My company’s work is near some remote granite mines and these are being excavated by the North Koreans. And I hear that some other “nationalities” to India's west are there too. No one can go near the sites and something very wrong is going on there. The North Koreans are in the mines deep down doing something weird and not mining granite – which is just a front. I cannot do a thing about it, probably you should let your government know.”

I thought that this gentleman is perhaps testing me and thinks that I am an Indian agent and wanted to feed me “disinformation”. I did nothing with this information. I did have a bad experience with Indian embassy when I was in New York city as a student – that is for later in this blog. But I wanted to get this off my chest, however improbable this may sound.

But there are interesting things to tie the story down.

1. Right next to Bangladesh border, in North East India – there are uranium deposits. And there are enough and more stories that locals ferry this “yellow cake” illegally in local buses in jute bags and sell it to “dealers”. Where this ultimately goes, is anybody’s guess. My bet is that this is simply sent over the borders into Bangladesh. The border is open and porous in North East.

2. There are granite mines in Bangladesh and some in very remote places. And indeed there are North Korean companies working there.

3. The Chittagong port is a den of criminal activity and anything goes and lands there. “Smugglers were unloading the largest ever arms cache on the Karnaphuli coast in Chittagong on Friday with 'help from local police', a witness told journalists in a major twist to the seizure top intelligence officials credited to tip-off from their foreign counterparts.”

4. 2 (Two) Pakistani nuclear scientists close to Al Qaeda were sent to Burma (next to Bangladesh and shares open borders). In December 2001, the New York Times reported that while US authorities were investigating Mahmood and Majid, they found some links between al-Qaeda and two other Pakistani nuclear scientists, Suleiman Asad and Muhammed Ali Mukhtar. Both Asad and Mukhtar had long experience at two of Pakistan's most secret nuclear-weapons-related installations. However, before US investigators could reach them, Pakistan sent the two scientists to Myanmar on an unspecified "research project".

The New York Times also quoted Pakistani officials as saying that President General Pervez Musharraf personally telephoned one of Myanmar's military rulers to ask him to provide temporary asylum for the two nuclear specialists. In January 2002, the Wall Street Journal reported that Asad and Mukhtar were possibly aiding Myanmar's efforts to build a 10-megawatt nuclear "research reactor". Asad and Mukhtar are still in Myanmar, well away from US reach. Read about their Taliban and Al_Qaeda links in this article: Pakistan's forgotten al-Qaeda nuclear link.

Even though a blog is not a credible source, this is indeed interesting read.

If one were to piece together the points 1 though 4 above and add “North Koreans along with undesirable West Asian foreigners” doing "weird things in the pit of mines" - we need to be worried. Not to forget, ISI has home base advantage in Bangladesh.

My guess is : This is the perfect place for manufacturing a Dirty Bomb. Whoever will think of Bangladesh? And stolen uranium, pliant port and "North Koreans" and "West Asians". A heady cocktail indeed !

BANGLADESH & DIRTY BOMB: A TRYST IN 2003. While writing this blog, I came upon the article written by Indian supercop KPS GILL - which is linked above "they are close to ISI" which states: "There were grave concerns about the possibility of Islamist extremists in the country acquiring radioactive materials and the technical know-how to build a ‘dirty bomb’, when on May 30, 2003, Bangladeshi police arrested four suspected members of a Islamist group, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, at a house in the northern village of Puiya. Officers also seized a football-size package with markings indicating it contained a crude form of uranium manufactured in Kazakhstan. Subsequent tests at the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission in Dhaka confirmed that the 225-gram ball was uranium oxide—enough to make a weapon capable of dispersing radiation across a wide area if strapped to conventional explosives."


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About my bad experience with Indian embassy as a student and why I kept quiet. I was in New York city on a full Presidential scholarship during graduate studies. One of my friends from India who was not on full scholarship, was working part time, illegally in a lawyer's office downtown Manhattan. That lawyer specialized in getting green cards done for illegals - by cooking up stories on farming etc. But alarming thing was there were blank Indian passports in that office which came from "Sikhs" in Canada and USA. One senior Indian diplomat came to our University to talk about India and after his power point and Q&A, I took him aside and showed him the blank Indian passport. He did not bat an eyelid and told me to report this to FBI as this was outside his jurisdiction. I thought - excuse me - don't you want to know where this is coming from, don't you want to alert RAW. But he just walked away, not bothering to even ask my name. I was actually stunned at the callousness. I kept quiet for a couple of weeks and after my friend left the job at lawyers' office, I rang up the FBI from a payphone and gave details. They raided the place in a matter of days and closed shop and arrested the errant "lawyer". FBI did its job but my country did not.