Showing posts with label AFGHANISTAN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFGHANISTAN. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

FULL TEXT OF OBAMA'S SPEECH AT WEST POINT ON AFGHANISTAN & B RAMAN'S REBUTTAL !



Good evening. To the United States Corps of Cadets, to the men and women of our armed services, and to my fellow Americans: I want to speak to you tonight about our effort in Afghanistan – the nature of our commitment there, the scope of our interests, and the strategy that my Administration will pursue to bring this war to a successful conclusion. It is an honor for me to do so here – at West Point – where so many men and women have prepared to stand up for our security, and to represent what is finest about our country.

To address these issues, it is important to recall why America and our allies were compelled to fight a war in Afghanistan in the first place. We did not ask for this fight. On September 11, 2001, nineteen men hijacked four airplanes and used them to murder nearly 3,000 people. They struck at our military and economic nerve centers. They took the lives of innocent men, women, and children without regard to their faith or race or station. Were it not for the heroic actions of the passengers on board one of those flights, they could have also struck at one of the great symbols of our democracy in Washington, and killed many more.

As we know, these men belonged to al Qaeda – a group of extremists who have distorted and defiled Islam, one of the world’s great religions, to justify the slaughter of innocents. Al Qaeda’s base of operations was in Afghanistan, where they were harbored by the Taliban – a ruthless, repressive and radical movement that seized control of that country after it was ravaged by years of Soviet occupation and civil war, and after the attention of America and our friends had turned elsewhere.

Just days after 9/11, Congress authorized the use of force against al Qaeda and those who harbored them – an authorization that continues to this day. The vote in the Senate was 98 to 0. The vote in the House was 420 to 1. For the first time in its history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization invoked Article 5 – the commitment that says an attack on one member nation is an attack on all. And the United Nations Security Council endorsed the use of all necessary steps to respond to the 9/11 attacks. America, our allies and the world were acting as one to destroy al Qaeda’s terrorist network, and to protect our common security.

Under the banner of this domestic unity and international legitimacy – and only after the Taliban refused to turn over Osama bin Laden – we sent our troops into Afghanistan. Within a matter of months, al Qaeda was scattered and many of its operatives were killed. The Taliban was driven from power and pushed back on its heels. A place that had known decades of fear now had reason to hope. At a conference convened by the UN, a provisional government was established under President Hamid Karzai. And an International Security Assistance Force was established to help bring a lasting peace to a war-torn country.

Then, in early 2003, the decision was made to wage a second war in Iraq. The wrenching debate over the Iraq War is well-known and need not be repeated here. It is enough to say that for the next six years, the Iraq War drew the dominant share of our troops, our resources, our diplomacy, and our national attention – and that the decision to go into Iraq caused substantial rifts between America and much of the world.

Today, after extraordinary costs, we are bringing the Iraq war to a responsible end. We will remove our combat brigades from Iraq by the end of next summer, and all of our troops by the end of 2011. That we are doing so is a testament to the character of our men and women in uniform. Thanks to their courage, grit and perseverance, we have given Iraqis a chance to shape their future, and we are successfully leaving Iraq to its people.

But while we have achieved hard-earned milestones in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated. After escaping across the border into Pakistan in 2001 and 2002, al Qaeda’s leadership established a safe-haven there. Although a legitimate government was elected by the Afghan people, it has been hampered by corruption, the drug trade, an under-developed economy, and insufficient Security Forces. Over the last several years, the Taliban has maintained common cause with al Qaeda, as they both seek an overthrow of the Afghan government. Gradually, the Taliban has begun to take control over swaths of Afghanistan, while engaging in increasingly brazen and devastating acts of terrorism against the Pakistani people.

Throughout this period, our troop levels in Afghanistan remained a fraction of what they were in Iraq. When I took office, we had just over 32,000 Americans serving in Afghanistan, compared to 160,000 in Iraq at the peak of the war. Commanders in Afghanistan repeatedly asked for support to deal with the reemergence of the Taliban, but these reinforcements did not arrive. That’s why, shortly after taking office, I approved a long-standing request for more troops. After consultations with our allies, I then announced a strategy recognizing the fundamental connection between our war effort in Afghanistan, and the extremist safe-havens in Pakistan. I set a goal that was narrowly defined as disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al Qaeda and its extremist allies, and pledged to better coordinate our military and civilian effort.

Since then, we have made progress on some important objectives. High-ranking al Qaeda and Taliban leaders have been killed, and we have stepped up the pressure on al Qaeda world-wide. In Pakistan, that nation’s Army has gone on its largest offensive in years. In Afghanistan, we and our allies prevented the Taliban from stopping a presidential election, and – although it was marred by fraud – that election produced a government that is consistent with Afghanistan’s laws and Constitution.

Yet huge challenges remain. Afghanistan is not lost, but for several years it has moved backwards. There is no imminent threat of the government being overthrown, but the Taliban has gained momentum. Al Qaeda has not reemerged in Afghanistan in the same numbers as before 9/11, but they retain their safe-havens along the border. And our forces lack the full support they need to effectively train and partner with Afghan Security Forces and better secure the population. Our new Commander in Afghanistan – General McChrystal – has reported that the security situation is more serious than he anticipated. In short: the status quo is not sustainable.
As cadets, you volunteered for service during this time of danger. Some of you have fought in Afghanistan. Many will deploy there. As your Commander-in-Chief, I owe you a mission that is clearly defined, and worthy of your service. That is why, after the Afghan voting was completed, I insisted on a thorough review of our strategy. Let me be clear: there has never been an option before me that called for troop deployments before 2010, so there has been no delay or denial of resources necessary for the conduct of the war. Instead, the review has allowed me ask the hard questions, and to explore all of the different options along with my national security team, our military and civilian leadership in Afghanistan, and with our key partners. Given the stakes involved, I owed the American people – and our troops – no less.

This review is now complete. And as Commander-in-Chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home. These are the resources that we need to seize the initiative, while building the Afghan capacity that can allow for a responsible transition of our forces out of Afghanistan.

I do not make this decision lightly. I opposed the war in Iraq precisely because I believe that we must exercise restraint in the use of military force, and always consider the long-term consequences of our actions. We have been at war for eight years, at enormous cost in lives and resources. Years of debate over Iraq and terrorism have left our unity on national security issues in tatters, and created a highly polarized and partisan backdrop for this effort. And having just experienced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, the American people are understandably focused on rebuilding our economy and putting people to work here at home.

Most of all, I know that this decision asks even more of you – a military that, along with your families, has already borne the heaviest of all burdens. As President, I have signed a letter of condolence to the family of each American who gives their life in these wars. I have read the letters from the parents and spouses of those who deployed. I have visited our courageous wounded warriors at Walter Reed. I have travelled to Dover to meet the flag-draped caskets of 18 Americans returning home to their final resting place. I see firsthand the terrible wages of war. If I did not think that the security of the United States and the safety of the American people were at stake in Afghanistan, I would gladly order every single one of our troops home tomorrow.

So no – I do not make this decision lightly. I make this decision because I am convinced that our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is the epicenter of the violent extremism practiced by al Qaeda. It is from here that we were attacked on 9/11, and it is from here that new attacks are being plotted as I speak. This is no idle danger; no hypothetical threat. In the last few months alone, we have apprehended extremists within our borders who were sent here from the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan to commit new acts of terror. This danger will only grow if the region slides backwards, and al Qaeda can operate with impunity. We must keep the pressure on al Qaeda, and to do that, we must increase the stability and capacity of our partners in the region.

Of course, this burden is not ours alone to bear. This is not just America’s war. Since 9/11, al Qaeda’s safe-havens have been the source of attacks against London and Amman and Bali. The people and governments of both Afghanistan and Pakistan are endangered. And the stakes are even higher within a nuclear-armed Pakistan, because we know that al Qaeda and other extremists seek nuclear weapons, and we have every reason to believe that they would use them.

These facts compel us to act along with our friends and allies. Our overarching goal remains the same: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.

To meet that goal, we will pursue the following objectives within Afghanistan. We must deny al Qaeda a safe-haven. We must reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government. And we must strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan’s Security Forces and government, so that they can take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future.

We will meet these objectives in three ways. First, we will pursue a military strategy that will break the Taliban’s momentum and increase Afghanistan’s capacity over the next 18 months.

The 30,000 additional troops that I am announcing tonight will deploy in the first part of 2010 – the fastest pace possible – so that they can target the insurgency and secure key population centers. They will increase our ability to train competent Afghan Security Forces, and to partner with them so that more Afghans can get into the fight. And they will help create the conditions for the United States to transfer responsibility to the Afghans.

Because this is an international effort, I have asked that our commitment be joined by contributions from our allies. Some have already provided additional troops, and we are confident that there will be further contributions in the days and weeks ahead. Our friends have fought and bled and died alongside us in Afghanistan. Now, we must come together to end this war successfully. For what’s at stake is not simply a test of NATO’s credibility – what’s at stake is the security of our Allies, and the common security of the world.

Taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011. Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground. We will continue to advise and assist Afghanistan’s Security Forces to ensure that they can succeed over the long haul. But it will be clear to the Afghan government – and, more importantly, to the Afghan people – that they will ultimately be responsible for their own country.

Second, we will work with our partners, the UN, and the Afghan people to pursue a more effective civilian strategy, so that the government can take advantage of improved security.

This effort must be based on performance. The days of providing a blank check are over. President Karzai’s inauguration speech sent the right message about moving in a new direction. And going forward, we will be clear about what we expect from those who receive our assistance. We will support Afghan Ministries, Governors, and local leaders that combat corruption and deliver for the people. We expect those who are ineffective or corrupt to be held accountable. And we will also focus our assistance in areas – such as agriculture – that can make an immediate impact in the lives of the Afghan people.

The people of Afghanistan have endured violence for decades. They have been confronted with occupation – by the Soviet Union, and then by foreign al Qaeda fighters who used Afghan land for their own purposes. So tonight, I want the Afghan people to understand – America seeks an end to this era of war and suffering. We have no interest in occupying your country. We will support efforts by the Afghan government to open the door to those Taliban who abandon violence and respect the human rights of their fellow citizens. And we will seek a partnership with Afghanistan grounded in mutual respect – to isolate those who destroy; to strengthen those who build; to hasten the day when our troops will leave; and to forge a lasting friendship in which America is your partner, and never your patron.

Third, we will act with the full recognition that our success in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan.

We are in Afghanistan to prevent a cancer from once again spreading through that country. But this same cancer has also taken root in the border region of Pakistan. That is why we need a strategy that works on both sides of the border.

In the past, there have been those in Pakistan who have argued that the struggle against extremism is not their fight, and that Pakistan is better off doing little or seeking accommodation with those who use violence. But in recent years, as innocents have been killed from Karachi to Islamabad, it has become clear that it is the Pakistani people who are the most endangered by extremism. Public opinion has turned. The Pakistani Army has waged an offensive in Swat and South Waziristan. And there is no doubt that the United States and Pakistan share a common enemy.

In the past, we too often defined our relationship with Pakistan narrowly. Those days are over. Moving forward, we are committed to a partnership with Pakistan that is built on a foundation of mutual interests, mutual respect, and mutual trust. We will strengthen Pakistan’s capacity to target those groups that threaten our countries, and have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe-haven for terrorists whose location is known, and whose intentions are clear. America is also providing substantial resources to support Pakistan’s democracy and development. We are the largest international supporter for those Pakistanis displaced by the fighting. And going forward, the Pakistani people must know: America will remain a strong supporter of Pakistan’s security and prosperity long after the guns have fallen silent, so that the great potential of its people can be unleashed.

These are the three core elements of our strategy: a military effort to create the conditions for a transition; a civilian surge that reinforces positive action; and an effective partnership with Pakistan.

I recognize that there are a range of concerns about our approach. So let me briefly address a few of the prominent arguments that I have heard, and which I take very seriously.

First, there are those who suggest that Afghanistan is another Vietnam. They argue that it cannot be stabilized, and we are better off cutting our losses and rapidly withdrawing. Yet this argument depends upon a false reading of history. Unlike Vietnam, we are joined by a broad coalition of 43 nations that recognizes the legitimacy of our action. Unlike Vietnam, we are not facing a broad-based popular insurgency. And most importantly, unlike Vietnam, the American people were viciously attacked from Afghanistan, and remain a target for those same extremists who are plotting along its border. To abandon this area now – and to rely only on efforts against al Qaeda from a distance – would significantly hamper our ability to keep the pressure on al Qaeda, and create an unacceptable risk of additional attacks on our homeland and our allies.

Second, there are those who acknowledge that we cannot leave Afghanistan in its current state, but suggest that we go forward with the troops that we have. But this would simply maintain a status quo in which we muddle through, and permit a slow deterioration of conditions there. It would ultimately prove more costly and prolong our stay in Afghanistan, because we would never be able to generate the conditions needed to train Afghan Security Forces and give them the space to take over.

Finally, there are those who oppose identifying a timeframe for our transition to Afghan responsibility. Indeed, some call for a more dramatic and open-ended escalation of our war effort – one that would commit us to a nation building project of up to a decade. I reject this course because it sets goals that are beyond what we can achieve at a reasonable cost, and what we need to achieve to secure our interests. Furthermore, the absence of a timeframe for transition would deny us any sense of urgency in working with the Afghan government. It must be clear that Afghans will have to take responsibility for their security, and that America has no interest in fighting an endless war in Afghanistan.

As President, I refuse to set goals that go beyond our responsibility, our means, our or interests. And I must weigh all of the challenges that our nation faces. I do not have the luxury of committing to just one. Indeed, I am mindful of the words of President Eisenhower, who – in discussing our national security – said, “Each proposal must be weighed in the light of a broader consideration: the need to maintain balance in and among national programs.”

Over the past several years, we have lost that balance, and failed to appreciate the connection between our national security and our economy. In the wake of an economic crisis, too many of our friends and neighbors are out of work and struggle to pay the bills, and too many Americans are worried about the future facing our children. Meanwhile, competition within the global economy has grown more fierce. So we simply cannot afford to ignore the price of these wars.

All told, by the time I took office the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan approached a trillion dollars. Going forward, I am committed to addressing these costs openly and honestly. Our new approach in Afghanistan is likely to cost us roughly 30 billion dollars for the military this year, and I will work closely with Congress to address these costs as we work to bring down our deficit.

But as we end the war in Iraq and transition to Afghan responsibility, we must rebuild our strength here at home. Our prosperity provides a foundation for our power. It pays for our military. It underwrites our diplomacy. It taps the potential of our people, and allows investment in new industry. And it will allow us to compete in this century as successfully as we did in the last. That is why our troop commitment in Afghanistan cannot be open-ended – because the nation that I am most interested in building is our own.

Let me be clear: none of this will be easy. The struggle against violent extremism will not be finished quickly, and it extends well beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will be an enduring test of our free society, and our leadership in the world. And unlike the great power conflicts and clear lines of division that defined the 20th century, our effort will involve disorderly regions and diffuse enemies.

So as a result, America will have to show our strength in the way that we end wars and prevent conflict. We will have to be nimble and precise in our use of military power. Where al Qaeda and its allies attempt to establish a foothold – whether in Somalia or Yemen or elsewhere – they must be confronted by growing pressure and strong partnerships.

And we cannot count on military might alone. We have to invest in our homeland security, because we cannot capture or kill every violent extremist abroad. We have to improve and better coordinate our intelligence, so that we stay one step ahead of shadowy networks.

We will have to take away the tools of mass destruction. That is why I have made it a central pillar of my foreign policy to secure loose nuclear materials from terrorists; to stop the spread of nuclear weapons; and to pursue the goal of a world without them. Because every nation must understand that true security will never come from an endless race for ever-more destructive weapons – true security will come for those who reject them.

We will have to use diplomacy, because no one nation can meet the challenges of an interconnected world acting alone. I have spent this year renewing our alliances and forging new partnerships. And we have forged a new beginning between America and the Muslim World – one that recognizes our mutual interest in breaking a cycle of conflict, and that promises a future in which those who kill innocents are isolated by those who stand up for peace and prosperity and human dignity.

Finally, we must draw on the strength of our values – for the challenges that we face may have changed, but the things that we believe in must not. That is why we must promote our values by living them at home – which is why I have prohibited torture and will close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. And we must make it clear to every man, woman and child around the world who lives under the dark cloud of tyranny that America will speak out on behalf of their human rights, and tend to the light of freedom, and justice, and opportunity, and respect for the dignity of all peoples. That is who we are. That is the moral source of America’s authority.

Since the days of Franklin Roosevelt, and the service and sacrifice of our grandparents, our country has borne a special burden in global affairs. We have spilled American blood in many countries on multiple continents. We have spent our revenue to help others rebuild from rubble and develop their own economies. We have joined with others to develop an architecture of institutions – from the United Nations to NATO to the World Bank – that provide for the common security and prosperity of human beings.

We have not always been thanked for these efforts, and we have at times made mistakes. But more than any other nation, the United States of America has underwritten global security for over six decades – a time that, for all its problems, has seen walls come down, markets open, billions lifted from poverty, unparalleled scientific progress, and advancing frontiers of human liberty.

For unlike the great powers of old, we have not sought world domination. Our union was founded in resistance to oppression. We do not seek to occupy other nations. We will not claim another nation’s resources or target other peoples because their faith or ethnicity is different from ours. What we have fought for – and what we continue to fight for – is a better future for our children and grandchildren, and we believe that their lives will be better if other peoples’ children and grandchildren can live in freedom and access opportunity.

As a country, we are not as young – and perhaps not as innocent – as we were when Roosevelt was President. Yet we are still heirs to a noble struggle for freedom. Now we must summon all of our might and moral suasion to meet the challenges of a new age.

In the end, our security and leadership does not come solely from the strength of our arms. It derives from our people – from the workers and businesses who will rebuild our economy; from the entrepreneurs and researchers who will pioneer new industries; from the teachers that will educate our children, and the service of those who work in our communities at home; from the diplomats and Peace Corps volunteers who spread hope abroad; and from the men and women in uniform who are part of an unbroken line of sacrifice that has made government of the people, by the people, and for the people a reality on this Earth.

This vast and diverse citizenry will not always agree on every issue – nor should we. But I also know that we, as a country, cannot sustain our leadership nor navigate the momentous challenges of our time if we allow ourselves to be split asunder by the same rancor and cynicism and partisanship that has in recent times poisoned our national discourse.

It is easy to forget that when this war began, we were united – bound together by the fresh memory of a horrific attack, and by the determination to defend our homeland and the values we hold dear. I refuse to accept the notion that we cannot summon that unity again. I believe with every fiber of my being that we – as Americans – can still come together behind a common purpose. For our values are not simply words written into parchment – they are a creed that calls us together, and that has carried us through the darkest of storms as one nation, one people.

America – we are passing through a time of great trial. And the message that we send in the midst of these storms must be clear: that our cause is just, our resolve unwavering. We will go forward with the confidence that right makes might, and with the commitment to forge an America that is safer, a world that is more secure, and a future that represents not the deepest of fears but the highest of hopes. Thank you, God bless you, God bless our troops, and may God bless the United States of America.

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REBUTTAL BY B. RAMAN

President Barack Obama's Af-Pak policy ----Mark 2 as unveiled by him in his address to US military officer cadets at West Point on December 2,2009, has been marked by critical words for the Afghan Government and soft words for the rulers of Pakistan----- as if evils such as corruption, poor governance, narcotics production and lack of accountability are confined only to Afghanistan and one does not find these evils in Pakistan.

2. It is these evils long tolerated by successive US administrations that have landed Pakistan in the situation in which it finds itself today----- a breeding ground of extremism and sectarianism of every hue. The cancer of extermism and jihadi terrorism did not spread to Pakistan from Afghanistan. It spread from the madrasas of Pakistan to Afghanistan with the encouragement and often at the instance of Pakistan's military and intelligence establishments. The root of this cancer is in Pakistan and not in Afghanistan. The surgery has to start in Pakistan. This harsh reality has been played down in his address.

3. The Taliban, which nourished Al Qaeda and gave it shelter in Afghan territory, was born in Pakistani territory in 1994. Al Qaeda and the leadership of the Afgan Taliban escaped defeat by the US forces post-9/11 by taking shelter in Pakistani territory----- Al Qaeda in the North Waziristan area of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Neo Taliban headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar in the Quetta area of Balochistan.

4. From there, the surviving senior cadres of the two organisations moved to sanctuaries in the non-tribal areas. A recent report of the "Washington Times" has quoted retired US intelligence sources as saying that Mulla Omar and other leaders of the Neo Taliban have shifted to the Karachi area from the Quetta area to escape attacks by US drone (pilotless) planes in the tribal areas.

5. Many senior Al Qaeda leaders operated from the non-tribal areas of Pakistan----some even before 9/11. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM) was reported to have orchestrated the 9/11 strikes in the US from Karachi from where he shifted to Quetta and then to Rawalpindi, where he was ultimately arrested. Abu Zubaidah was caught in Faislabad in Punjab and Ramzi Binalshib in Karachi. One should not be surprised if it ultimately turns out that Osama bin Laden and his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri have also been sheltered in the non-tribal areas and that is why the US has not been able to get at them so far despite offers of huge rewards and the Drone strikes.

6. The command and control of both the Neo Taliban and Al Qaeda are now located in Pakistani territory. Obama said in his address at West Point: "Our overarching goal remains the same: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future. ...... We will strengthen Pakistan's capacity to target those groups that threaten our countries, and have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe-haven for terrorists whose location is known, and whose intentions are clear."

7. Strong words regarding the safehavens for terrorists in Pakistan. As in the past, strong words do not presage strong action to force Pakistan to destroy those safehavens.The Pakistani military operations in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan are meant to counter a threat to Pakistan's internal security from indigenous elements. They are not directed against the external activities of Al Qaeda. Nor are they directed towards facilitating the military operations of the NATO forces and the Afghan National Army in Afghan territory. The safehavens of organisations, which are seen as an asset and not as a threat to Pakistan, are being shifted from place to place to escape detection and action by the US.

8. If Obama is serious about wanting to start withdrawing from Afghanistan in dignity and honour by the middle of 2011, he has only two options. Either force the Pakistani rulers to act against the safehavens whether they are located in tribal or non-tribal areas or act against them with available US capabilities. The Obama Administration like its predecessor lacks the political will to do so.

9. Seeking partnership with a state perpetrator of terrorism is not the way of ending it. That is what Obama has done in his address. That is why his revised Af-Pak policy is unlikely to meet the objectives which he has set for the US and other NATO countries. Obama's West Point address contains the seeds of its pre-destined failure

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

OBAMA TO MEET TWEEDLE DEE & TWEEDLE DUM

Lewis Carol’s Alice in Wonderland is coming alive in US as Obama (Alice) gets to meet Hamid Karzai (Tweedle Dee) and Asif Ali Zardari (Tweedle Dum).


TWEEDLE DEE & TWEEDLE DUM

The US sets date with two figureheads both of whom are mere ornaments that adorn a mantelpiece rather than as executives with real enforceable power. Both Zardari and to a lesser degree Karzai have shown immense prevarication towards governing their countries respectively.

Yet the US cannot do business without the two. Of the two, the interaction the world is watching out for is between Zardari and Obama.

The first ball has already been lobbed – much like a puppet whose strings have been snapped at the sight of big daddy – Zardari shot off the block first.

ZARDARI: I WAS FORCED TO SIGN THE SWAT PEACE ACCORD

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari had opposed inking a peace agreement with Taliban in the Swat Valley but was “forced to agree to it”, US Special Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke has said. And Holbrooke lobbed back: “We support the democratic government led by Zardari and speculation that we are having discussions with Nawaz Sharif is just plain wrong.”

Well, thank you for the curtain raiser – let the actual games begin!

What are the leading journalists saying about it?

Simon Cameron Moore wrting in Reuters (May 3rd) : Pakistanis don't often see their country the same way as American presidents, but the fear spread by Taliban fighters turning up a few hours drive from Islamabad has finally put them on the same page.

When Barack Obama said on Wednesday that the situation in the nuclear-armed Muslim nation warranted "grave concern" there was no dispute in Pakistan.

Politicians of every hue, the media and the public have all been seized by the urgent need to fight back.
"The national mood is changing," said a senior Pakistani official with knowledge of foreign policy and security matters.
"People got scared, which is good. Getting scared is good."

The turnaround is occurring as President Asif Ali Zardari prepares to meet Obama and Afghan counterpart Hamid Karzai in Washington on May 6-7 to discuss how to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Pakistan is suffering the backwash from the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, a price paid, according to critics, for supporting the militants in the past.”


Zaid Hussain on Times Online (May 5th) : Islamabad’s patchy attempts to fight surging militancy will be the focus of Mr Zardari’s talks in Washington later this week. Pakistan’s President is likely to seek increased US help. Analysts said that Mr Obama would present his strategy for defeating al-Qaeda to the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan tomorrow.

The Taleban’s advance from Swat into the neighbouring districts of Buner and Lower Dir heightened fears that the militants were extending their influence. Security forces launched an offensive to expel militants a week ago, with helicopter gunships and ground troops fighting hundreds of armed Taleban.

The renewed military action in Swat will stretch the Pakistani army, which is ill-equipped to fight an insurgency over such a large area. The situation is made more difficult by Pakistan’s insistence on deploying the bulk of its forces on its border with India.


Ahmed Rashid on Washington Post (May 5th) : Pakistan is on the brink of chaos, and Congress is in a critical position: U.S. lawmakers can hasten that fateful process, halt it or even help turn things around. The speed and conditions with which Congress provides emergency aid to Islamabad will affect the Pakistani government and army's ability and will to resist the Taliban onslaught. It will also affect America's image in Pakistan and the region. Pakistanis are looking for evidence of the long-term U.S. commitment about which President Obama has spoken.

In the past, many of these jihadist groups, including the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, have been fostered by Pakistan's army and intelligence services -- at the cost of global security, democracy and civil society. The Bush administration ignored this trend for years while it pumped more than $11 billion into Pakistan. The bulk of that funding went to the military, which bought arms to fight Pakistan's historic enemy, India, rather than the insurgency.

The army's recent counteroffensive against the Taliban was prompted in part by U.S. pressure and, more significant, by a dramatic shift in public opinion toward opposing the Taliban. Many people are beginning to see the country threatened by a bloody internal revolution. This public pressure can lead to a major change in army policies toward India and Afghanistan.

Certainly the United States can demand that its money be used for good purposes. The original Biden-Lugar bill introduced last year had the mix just right, setting down three strategic benchmarks -- that Pakistan be committed to fighting terrorism, that Pakistan remain a democracy (in other words, the army must not seize control), and that both nations provide public and official accountability for the funds.

For three decades, I have written about the fire that Islamic militancy has lit in this region. I do not want to see my country go down because Congress is more concerned with minutiae than with the big picture. Yes, there must be a sea change in attitudes and policies in the army, intelligence services and civilian government. But tomorrow may be too late. Pakistan needs help today.”

WHERE THE HECK ARE YOUR NUKES ZARDARI?

Beyond the rhetoric – the US will want to know – where are the Pakistani nukes? Of course Zardari is not qualified to know this, for that US will have to seek answers from Kiyani and Kidwai. However, the game starts here.

David Sanger, the author of Inheritance, whom I have quoted widely and has one of the best eyes and ears on the “ground” writes in New York Times (May 3rd) : “As the insurgency of the Taliban and Al Qaeda spreads in Pakistan, senior American officials say they are increasingly concerned about new vulnerabilities for Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, including the potential for militants to snatch a weapon in transport or to insert sympathizers into laboratories or fuel-production facilities.

The officials emphasized that there was no reason to believe that the arsenal, most of which is south of the capital, Islamabad, faced an imminent threat. President Obama said last week that he remained confident that keeping the country’s nuclear infrastructure secure was the top priority of Pakistan’s armed forces.

But the United States does not know where all of Pakistan’s nuclear sites are located, and its concerns have intensified in the last two weeks since the Taliban entered Buner, a district 60 miles from the capital. The spread of the insurgency has left American officials less willing to accept blanket assurances from Pakistan that the weapons are safe.

Pakistani officials have continued to deflect American requests for more details about the location and security of the country’s nuclear sites, the officials said.

Mr. Zardari heads the country’s National Command Authority, the mix of political, military and intelligence leaders responsible for its arsenal of 60 to 100 nuclear weapons. But in reality, his command and control over the weapons are considered tenuous at best; that power lies primarily in the hands of the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the former director of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s intelligence agency.

For years the Pakistanis have waved away the recurring American concerns, with the head of nuclear security for the country, Gen. Khalid Kidwai, dismissing them as “overblown rhetoric.”

Even as Pakistan faces instability, it is producing more plutonium for new weapons, and building more production reactors.
In the current climate, with Pakistan’s leadership under duress from daily acts of violence by insurgent Taliban forces and organized political opposition, the security of any nuclear material produced in these reactors is in question.” The Pakistanis, not surprisingly, dismiss those fears as American and Indian paranoia, intended to dissuade them from nuclear modernization. But the government’s credibility is still colored by the fact that it used equal vehemence to denounce as fabrications the reports that Abdul Qadeer Khan, one of the architects of Pakistan’s race for the nuclear bomb, had sold nuclear technology on the black market.

In the end, those reports turned out to be true.

Some of the Pakistani reluctance, they said, stemmed from longstanding concern that the United States might be tempted to seize or destroy Pakistan’s arsenal if the insurgency appeared about to engulf areas near Pakistan’s nuclear sites. But they said the most senior American and Pakistani officials had not yet engaged on the issue, a process that may begin this week, with President Asif Ali Zardari scheduled to visit Mr. Obama in Washington on Wednesday.

Ergo, the sub-heading – where the heck are your nukes buddy?

MUST READ: Pakistan's nuclear scenarios and US options - in New York Times (5th May'09). As the Pakistani military launched a new offensive against the Taliban in the country’s North-West Frontier Province, officials and former officials in Washington continued to discuss what the American response should be to the heightened conflict. How should the United States respond? And how secure are Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?

Discussed by:

Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, former Energy Department official Karin von Hippel, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute
Ellen Laipson, Stimson Center
Parag Khanna, New America Foundation

Of the five, I am giving the op-ed written by Danielle Pletka of AEI.


AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

"American South Asia policy is terminally afflicted by strategic attention deficit disorder (SADD). In the three decades since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the United States has trusted the Pakistanis (and allowed the ISI to run mujahedeen operations), mistrusted the Pakistanis (and sanctioned them for developing the nuclear weapons they developed five years before the sanctions), trusted the Pakistanis (and climbed into bed with Pervez Musharraf as the terror fighting hero of the post 9/11 era), dumped Musharraf, embraced Benazir Bhutto and then her widower, and now we’re about to dump the widower.

Neither Bush or Obama were interested in scrutinizing where U.S. aid goes and what it achieves, preferring to trumpet mere expenditure as policy.
In light of the fact that successive American directors of the C.I.A. have labeled South Asia the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint, the fact that 9/11 was plotted in the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan, that Islamists affiliated with al Qaeda now dominate significant swaths of Pakistani territory, and that we have two nuclear armed nations eying each other warily, the administration’s confusion is staggering.

What’s the nightmare scenario? This is it. We have another president in Washington who believes that if he only finds the right president (of Pakistan, Afghanistan, whatever), the situation on the ground will improve. Another president who believes that more troops equals better strategy. Another president who believes that nuclear weapons and the creeping domination of territory is something that can be managed by better diplomacy. Another president that has been persuaded, as Secretary Gates said today, that Saudi Arabia can help manage our problems.

These problems aren’t going to be solved by having special envoys with better titles, or subcontracting American defense to Saudi Arabia. We need clear indications of long term American commitment to the region, training and equipping of the Pakistani military, and effectively integrated military and aid programs. And what of the billions that have already been spent?

Like soldiers, money should not be obligated without a strategy. Neither Bush or Obama were interested in scrutinizing where U.S. aid goes and what it achieves, preferring to trumpet the mere expenditure as policy. Absent these changes, we are inviting our enemies to believe again in American weakness. And we know where that led the last time
."

Thoughts to carry home: Does PAKISTAN have “actionabale and usable nukes?”

Friday, April 10, 2009

PAKISTAN'S SEARCH FOR A MAHDI - (PART 1 of 3)

TRIVIA: Which was the only country that objected to Pakistan's entry into the UN? Answer at the end of this article.

Pakistan is trying to manipulate the Hadiths to further its nefarious agenda. Having seen that democracy is not the binding force, the military is loathe to hand over power to civil society and watch in horror as free press undermines their illegal rule. This free press has not shown any leniency while reporting on the greed for lucre, thus taking the sheen off military rulers. Even the independent judiciary with its incessant probe into missing persons, questioning financial deals involving the military have become an anathema of sorts to the military. (Note: Pervez Musharraf made money in the Pakistan Steel Mills deal - more on that in another article.)

The Pakistan Army in turn has created the Taliban (and of course the myriad terror organizations) - the brainwashed warriors of Allah – to subdue civil society, wage irregular warfare in neighbouring countries, gain strategic depth in Afghanistan, keep the Indian Army bogged down in Kashmir and essentially keep the Pakistan Army in a position of permanent power.

While the military logic was sound, the Pakistan Army itself got deeply mired in religion. Gen Zia started the Islamization of forces and this has come a full circle today. The Pakistani forces, the ISI are today more radicalized than ever before – the distinction between Taliban and ISI is perhaps erased forever.

As I have said before, democracy gave greater voice to people and people in Pakistan voiced it to show the utter disregard the Punjabi population was having on the rest of the Pakistanis – Balochis, Sindhis etc and Sunni extremists over the Shia population. The Ahmediyya community were massacred in Pakistan and are considered non-Muslims in Pakistan.

Sufi Mohammad has categorically said (Mar 18, 2009)that democracy is not permissible under Sharia. And I have stated before that Nawaz Sharif is committed to bringing Sharia over Pakistan, if and when he is elected with a comfortable majority.

Hamid Gul mentioned in the TV interview given in the previous article: “previous wars with India were fought without the fervor of jehad. But the next war will be a real war and our warriors and mujahids who will all come together in case India attacks Pakistan, and this fight will be fought with utmost religious fervor under the aegis of a jehad.”

The role of religion in warfare is an old subject. It is well known that invoking religion gives the highest self-belief to a warrior to fight in the just war – so that he fights without care and beyond patriotism.

Pakistan is trying to manufacture jehad for its “war of wars” by further manufacturing these soldiers of Allah – the Taliban – giving them the “as has been mentioned in Hadith headgear and flag” black flag.

I had briefly mentioned the Hadith of Ghazwatul Hind – which I will carry in greater detail in part 2. In this part (part 1) I will deal with Pakistan’s real intent and the main points concerning the coming of the Mahdi.

ISLAM according to PAKISTAN.

While we have been told that Islam literally means “peace” and it is forbidden for any Muslim to forcibly convert a non-Muslim into a Muslim, yet we see that most Islamic countries are in midst of infighting, and there have been forced conversions over the ages and it continues till this day.

DEOBAND IDEOLOGY BINDS PAKISTAN ARMY, ISI, TALIBAN AND TERROR GROUPS TOGETHER:

Most of the Pakistani Military, ISI, Taliban and terror organizations belong to the Deobandi school – President Musharraf himself is a product and he deftly hides his religious fascism behind western suits.


Deoband appears to approve the use of force to spread religion
. Its syllabus states: “When the Muslims enter the enemy’s country and besiege the cities or strongholds of the infidels, it is necessary to invite them to embrace the faith, because Ibn Abbas relates of the Prophet that he never destroyed any without previously inviting them to embrace the faith. If, therefore, they embrace the faith, it is unnecessary to war with them, because that which was the design of the war is then obtained without war. The Prophet, moreover, has said we are directed to make war upon men only until such time as they shall confess, “There is no God but one God.”

Arif Mohammad Khan
goes on to write : “The Deoband’s syllabus on jihad is clearly in conflict with the Quran, the book that is believed by Muslims to be the divine word. It is based on the Hedaya, a 12th century compilation of Muslim law, not on the statute books of any Muslim country today, although in India its provisions regarding personal law are still referred to!”

Sohail Abbas, a leading Pakistani psychologist, in his recently published study based on personal interviews of 517 mujahideen arrested in Afghanistan and later lodged in two Pakistani jails, asserts that “the figures on rural/urban jihadis become even more interesting as all the jihadis, barring just a few, belonged to the DEOBANDI school of thought”.

So what is Deoband teaching the Talibs? After all, this is the source – the fountain of knowledge and succor for the militants.

MUST NOTE AND REMEMBER: Jamaat-i-Islaami - JeI (FOUNDED BY DEOBAND) initially opposed the creation of Pakistan for fear that Muhhamad Ali Jinnah was creating another secular state like Turkey, though they eventually accepted the partition.

Note: For all his love for Ataturk, Musharraf is a product of Deoband and one must also remember that Musharraf’s candidacy was forwarded to Gen Zia by Jamaat I Islami (he was the blue eyed fundamentalist to the JeI – and he can never espouse to be a secularist – and if one views his tenure one sees that the militants and extremists only gained in strength in his tenure. If he did not target the Red Mosque under intense pressure, he would never have been target of assassins).

Ray Harris wrote an excellent piece “The myth of Islam as a religion of peace": and makes the following points:

Muslims have said that 'Islam' means peace, or that Islam is a religion of peace. Unfortunately this is just plain wrong.

Islam is derived from the Arabic aslama, which means 'surrender' (to the will of Allah). Muslim means 'one who has surrendered to the will of Allah'. And unfortunately, violence, under certain conditions, is a legitimate means to affect that surrender.

In saying that Islam means peace Islamic apologists are simply indulging in word play in order to put as positive a spin on things as they can. It is an attempt to argue that Islam promotes non-violence. As we will see such a peace is only available to one who has first surrendered to Allah and it is denied to those who refuse to surrender. Mohammed would sign his treaty offers with the words, aslem taslam, 'surrender and you will be safe'.

The Taliban were the students of Deobandi madari. Salafi money has gone to support the madari and the war in Afghanistan saw a coalition of Salafi and Deobandi jihadi.

Sayyid Mawdudi, a scholar of Deobandism and founder of the Pakistan party Jemaat e-Islamiya (party of Islam). He puts it this way:

Islam wants the whole earth and does not content itself with only a part thereof. It wants and requires the entire inhabited world. It does not want this in order that one nation dominates the earth and monopolizes its sources of wealth, after having taken them away from one or more other nations. No, Islam wants and requires the earth in order that the human race altogether can enjoy the concept and practical program of human happiness, by means of which God has honoured Islam and put it above the other religions and laws. In order to realize this lofty desire, Islam wants to employ all forces and means that can be employed for bringing about a universal all-embracing revolution. It will spare no efforts for the achievement of this supreme objective. This far-reaching struggle that continuously exhausts all forces and this employment of all possible means are called jihad.

Hamid Gul, Gen Pervez Musharraf, Gen Zia ul Haq, the Taliban and terror groups like Laskhar e Taiba (LeT), Lashkar e Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) and TNSM of Sufi Mohammad are all followers of Salafi / Deobandi school of thought.

Hamid Gul very recently stated: (Mar 28th 2009) “We should be ready to lead the world and for this, we need ideological educational institutions," he said, maintaining that there were lot of schools pushing students against the ideology of Islam and Pakistan.

In such circumstances, there was need for ideological institutions across Pakistan, he underlined. He said Pakistan was not formed for economic gains or other petty reasons rather it was formed to lead the world after providing a practical and workable Islamic model to govern people. He said his aim of life was to promote this idea and he was not retired or tired and the enemies of Pakistan knew it well. "Pakistan and Islam are tied to each other," he concluded.

How will Pakistan lead the world? How is Pakistan and Islam tied to each other that will bring this about?

The first steps have been accomplished. Taliban has been created. It is being armed and trained to fight wars in all terrain. Divisions of Pakistan army regulars are “deserting” (officially) and joining the ranks of Taliban or various terrorist organizations (LeT etc).

Second comes the religious indoctrination that goes before they become warriors – that is being provided by the Deobandi madrassas
.

Third is being part of “The Holy Book” by erasing their atrocities under the garb of “The Holy War”.


In this part let us look at the End Times & Islam and coming of the Mahdi.

MAHDI
:

Mahdi is one who leads people to truth. He will have 3 basic tasks.

1. Overthrow of philosophical system that deny God and supports Atheism

2. Putting an end to practices that are not part of the religion but are portrayed so.

3. Revealing true Islamic moralities based on Quran starting with his own nation.


Note: Interesting if you see the following:

a. Attempt by Taliban to enforce Sharia where it rules (Afghanistan it tried and now Swat, Buner and gradually to the whole of Pakistan)

b. Mahdi is a more user-friendly term for the Shias than for the Sunnis, yet Pakistan saw recent cases of “false prophets”

c. FALSE PROPHET, YUSUF ALI KAZZAB, (a must read article for those who have not and see the intense hatred it created if you see the comments) who was arrested and sentenced to death by the Lahore High Court and then murdered in Kot Lakhpat jail by a fellow prisoner - this guy Zaid Hamid was known as ZAID ZAMAN at that time and was the KHALIFAH of that Kazzab.


d. Mr ZZ Hamid has been promoted to a position of "security analyst" with ISPR. Now, ISPR -Inter Services Public Relations Directorate is the official mouthpiece of the Pakistan Army. If ZZ Hamid speaks - one can assume he is speaking on behalf and with the blessings of Pakistan Army.

e. Interesting Zaid Hamid talks of greater Pakistan which consists of parts of India.


BuA: (my comments I write as BuA – Bengal under Attack) : Personally I feel Pakistan has abandoned the search for Mahdi and it is a controversial subject and was proving difficult to enforce. The followers of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad – self professed Mahdi, known as Ahmeddiyas face persecution in Pakistan. The last one – Yusuf Kazzab – met with a gory death. Yet Kazzab’s khalifah – Zaid Hamid is also has a website: www.brasstacks.pk.

However, to better understand what was going on in the minds of Pakistani Generals – it might be better to write this article and then go to the next part (Part 2) which they are implementing now. The “famed warriors of Allah wearing black turbans and with black flags rising from the land of Khorasan.” The search for the leader of this famed warriors is on.

Hence what are the incidents that fortell the coming of the Mahdi?

1. The halting of the Euphrates
.
God’s messenger said, “The Hour will not come to pass before the river Euphrates dries up to unveil the mountain of gold for which people will fight. 99 out of 100 will die fighting and every man amongst them will say “Perhaps, I may be the one to be alive.”

Explained by Islamic scholars as : In 1975, a dam was built that cut the flow of Euphrates. Because of this, the land became as valuable as gold. Also as per satellite photos there are piles of gold in Euphrates’ river bed. Many people lost their lives fighting for this land as well as well gold in the river bed.

BuA : This analysis is so far fetched that it defies logic. However, how are we going to tell the foot soldiers the virtues of logic. Imagine this logic being given in a feverish sermon by Hafeez Saeed to his LeT cadres – I can bet my bottom dollar all of them will be sitting enthralled at his oratory and will believe every single word. Hence, from next point on, I am not giving any analysis but asking the reader (you) to place yourself as the brain washed, blinkers on Taliban listening in.

2. Two eclipses in Ramadan before the Mahdi emerges (both solar and lunar)

The occurrence of two eclipses before Ramadan is indeed a rare phenomena. Yet, it has occurred twice :

1981 : 17th July – Lunar eclipse and 31st July Solar eclipse
1982: 6th July – Lunar eclipse and 20th July Solar eclipse.

3. Before He comes, a comet spreading light will come from the East. The birth of that star will follow the eclipse of Sun & Moon.

Muslim scholars – Haley’s comet fit the bill and it travelled from East to west.

4. People will go to Hajj with no Imam at their head. When they descend into Mina, the tribes will savage each other like dogs and there will be great wars, to such an extent that feet will be covered in a lake of blood. There will be great sin right by Kaaba.

Muslim scholars point to Nov 21, 1979 when over 1000 people died during Hajj.
BuA: The group that took over the mosque was led by Saudi preacher Juhayman Al-Utaybi, a former corporal in the Saudi National Guard, and consisted of several hundred gunmen from many countries. It had the apocalyptic vision of a global clash of civilizations that would lead to the triumph of true Islam and the end of the world as we know it. The group abhorred the Saudi state and other Arab regimes as infidel, and bitterly objected to any Western presence in the Arabian Peninsula. The battle for the Grand Mosque started on November 20, 1979—at the first dawn of Islam's year 1400—and lasted precisely two weeks.

Saudi troops refused to fight in the holy shrine—and for that the royal family had to promise the clerics that it would reverse the slow modernization that had been occurring in the kingdom up until then. The royals fulfilled their promise. In the weeks after the siege ended, female newscasters were taken off television; the enforcement of the ban on alcohol became much more severe; and vast amounts of oil money started flowing into the clerics' Wahhabi proselytizing campaign around the world.

(Was this therefore stage managed to fulfill one of the prophecies?)

5. A fire will engulf you. That fire is currently extinguished in the valley called Berehut. People will be enfolded in that fire with terrible suffering. That fire will burn and destroy people and belongings. 8 days it will rage and the heat of the night will be fiercer than that of the morning. There will be lots of thunder and fire will reach the sky.

Muslim scholars: Berehut is the name of an oil well. And indeed it was set on fire during the Iraq Kuwait conflict and the fire did burn for 8 days and reach the sky with thunderous noise.

6. Before the appearance of Mahdi, widespread slaughter will come to pass and great strife will be seen, where innocents will be massacred.

Muslim scholars cite the death and destruction of life in WW I & II.

7. Inhabitants of Egypt will kill their rulers & abandon his commands.

1981: Anwar Sadat (Egypt) killed

BuA: The two eclipses also happened for the first time in 1981. Was this a coincidence or a forced occurrence ?

8. Pity poor Taliqan – a region in Afghanistan – that at that place are treasures of GOD. But they are not GOLD & SILVER but consists of people who have recognized GOD as they should have.

BuA: And voila – TALIBAN are born with the help of ISI & Pakistan ARMY .


Narrated by Hazrat Abdullah bin Masood (RA) that Prophet (SAW) said:

A Nation will come from the east with black flags and they will ask for some “Khair” (because of them being needy) but the people will not give them, then, they will fight and win over those people (who did not give them what they asked). Now the people will give them what they asked for but they will not accept it until they will hand it over to a person from my progeny who will fill this earth with justice just as it was previously filled with oppression and tyranny. So if anyone of you finds this nation (i.e. from the east with black flag) then you must join them even if you have to crawl over ice.

Geographically there are only three Muslim countries, today, precisely east of Saudi Arabia i.e. Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. So it becomes easy to establish that whoever this army of black flags is, it belongs to one or more of these three countries.

BuA: Voila – The war flag of Taliban is black.

Pakistan Army & ISI are the creators of Taliban and various other terror groups like LeT. They are children and hence slave to the doctrine of Deobandi teachings that talks of the coming of Mahdi, Ghazwatul Hind, Khorasan and the final wars. And as stated above, as per Deoband: Islam wants the whole earth and does not content itself with only a part thereof. And reiterating the point that as per the latest interview of Hamid Gul: “Pakistan was not formed for economic gains or other petty reasons rather it was formed to lead the world after providing a practical and workable Islamic model to govern people. He said his aim of life was to promote this idea and he was not retired or tired and the enemies of Pakistan knew it well. "Pakistan and Islam are tied to each other.”

And US just cannot state the contacts ISI has with Taliban or even the terror organizations should cease. There are deep religious ties and Hadiths and DEOBAND schools that tie them up. It is a dangerous bond and a belief of “weak” Hadiths, but a belief that cannot be wished away.

Pakistan is blaming India now on the Lahore attacks on Sri Lankans. And credible reports are pouring in that Sirajuddin Haqqani network is about to take over Islamabad in concert with Baitullah Mehsud.

One cannot get closer than Haqqani network for the ISI. The best relation that ISI has is with the Haqqnani network. And if Taliban takeover of Pakistan is going to be orchestrated by the Haqqani network – then it is ISI driven. SIMPLE !

Pak Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani is on tape referring to Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani’s Taliban as a “strategic asset.”

NSA started picking up intercepts that Pakistani raid parties were giving advance warning to the Talibans of their arrival. “It was like, ‘Hey, we’re going to hit your place in a few days, so if anyone important is there, you might want to tell them to scram.’” But, leave a few weapons around, Haqqani’s operatives were told, so that it would not look as if the Pakistani Army had come up with nothing. They needed a few trophies to bring back. “Oh, and they warned them that there would be a lot of smoke bombs and stuff, but they shouldn’t worry too much.”

Its not Taliban that is taking over Pakistan. It is Hamid Gul, ex-ISI stalwarts taking over Pakistan facilitated by Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army is hardly giving any resistance to the “alleged threat of Taliban”. All stage managed !

Logically the next target should be the judiciary – after all Sharia cannot be enforced otherwise. The ISI-Pak Army-Taliban clique will want Sharia in Pakistan and they have Nawaz Sharif ready to do their bidding.

REPEAT NOTE: THE DREAM TO MAKE PAKISTAN INTO A STRICT ISLAMIC STATE WAS AGREED UPON BY SHARIF AND BROKERED BY HAMID GUL & OSAMA BIN LADEN.

NAWAZ SHARIF TO OSAMA: I LOVE JEHAD ! (CLICK HERE TO READ ARTICLE)

NAWAZ TRIED IMPOSING SHARIA IN 1998:

Pakistan can thank a few dogged senators in 1998 who blocked Nawaz Sharif’s 15th amendment bill which was to make Sharia Pakistan’s supreme law. Read this article in Jang newspaper - click here.

Excerpts from the above Jang article:

1. The introduction to the 15th amendment reads: "Whereas sovereignty over the entire universe belongs to Almighty Allah alone and the authority which He has delegated to the State of Pakistan through its people for being exercised through their chosen representatives within the limits prescribed by Him is a sacred trust."

2. The Holy Quran and Sunnah of the Holy Prophet (peace be upon him) shall be the supreme law of Pakistan.


When Hamid Gul, in the same interview cited above (Mar 28, 2009) states: No super power can change destiny - I hope you all get a sense of what destiny he is talking about.

Many readers have told me that Hamid Gul is a fruitcake - trust me the intelligence communities think of him as a very capable "fruitcake".

Mainstream media is going apoplectic with stories of Taliban encircling Islamabad and about to take over Pakistan. No where I am yet to see the simple logic - that this is all being orchestrated by Paksitan Army.

And as we speak, NEWSWEEK is breaking the story about BAITULLAH MEHSUD's ISI connections and hands of renegade ISI members (re: HAMID GUL & Co) in helping Mehsud assassinate Benazir Bhutto. Click here to read the story.

Next article on Ghazwatul Hind.

Answer to trivia: AFGHANISTAN.

Based on its objections to the Durand border, Afghanistan cast the sole vote against Pakistan's entry into the United Nations. From 1893 on, British India's and later Pakistan's policies toward Afghanistan have been greatly influenced by anxiety over the Afghans' claim to a ''Pashtunistan'' that would unite the Pashtuns of both countries and give Afghanistan easier access to the Indian Ocean.

Friday, April 3, 2009

TALIBAN FLOGGING 17 YR GIRL - PAR FOR COURSE !

President Obama – a peek at your Good Taliban.

A 17-year-old Pakistani girl is punished in a horrific flogging by Taliban militants for being seen with a man who is not her husband.



Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan claimed responsibility for the flogging.He said it was the Taliban's right to thrash women and that the girl was being punished for coming out of her house with another man who was not her husband.

Mobile phone footage shows the girl begging for mercy as she receives 37 lashes at the hands of her brother while two others hold her down.

'Please stop it,' she begs but the men completely disregard her desperate pleas and pathetic attempts to defend herself.

But some claim the commander ordered the flogging to get revenge after the girl refused to accept a marriage proposal.

Indian Express reported: The Taliban have now issued new dictum in the areas under their sway asking parents of the grown up daughters to marry them to militants or ‘face dire consequences’.

This new force-marriage campaign is being run in most of the areas in the Pakistan's troubled NWFP through regular announcements made in mosques to congregations.

Salma, who teaches in a primary school in Peshawar, told the influential ‘Dawn’ newspaper that Taliban have told families to declare in mosques if they have unmarried girls so that their hand could be given in marriage, most probably to militants.

If they did not do so, the girls would be forcibly married off; the newspaper quoted the 30-year-old widow as saying.

She also said the Taliban in the Swat valley of NWFP have threatened women with dire punishment, if they are found outside their homes without identity cards and a male relative accompanying them.

Couples should also carry 'Nikah Nama' or marriage certificates with them when they venture out of home or they will be in trouble, she said.

"I have heard that Taliban have announced that if a girl above the age of seven is found outside her house, she would be slaughtered," Salma said.

Daily Times, Pakistan, carried an interview with Sufi Mohammad. This one is a gem.

Daily Times: You said in a 2005 interview with us that what Al Qaeda and the Taliban are doing in Pakistan is haram. Are Maulana Fazlullah’s activities over the last sixteen months also haram?

Sufi Muhammad: Yes, I said that about Al Qaeda, but not about the Taliban. Let me say...that debate on past happenings is disallowed in Islam. A hadith sharif says, what has happened in the past should not be discussed.

But how can we proceed without debating the past?

The hadith sharif says a Muslim should not discuss past happenings because he may not remember all the [details] and, therefore, he may...sin by not speaking the truth.


Imagine this scenario – As per Sufi Muhammad, one can commit crime, probably murder, but can cite hadith sharif and say “Hey, you know what, I do not remember much, and since I may lie, under Hadith sahrif, I am allowed not to discuss past happenings”. Wow! Let the floggings and killings start !

On a more serious note, DAWN newspaper is reporting: “The result of this glorification of jihad for decades is that once the militants turned their guns on Pakistan itself, which was inevitable for anyone willing to acknowledge the facts, people were completely unprepared. Yesterday’s ‘heroes’ had seemingly overnight become the new enemy, and for no convincing reason. But there are plenty of reasons to worry about militancy. One, territorial control is a key aim of the militants.

There is a historical explanation though for the climate of denial. For a generation, Pakistanis were led to believe that armed jihad was a noble cause, first of course in Afghanistan and later in Kashmir, because our security establishment deemed it necessary for the pursuit of its own narrow definition of national interest. The result: a nation with a warped sense of right and wrong.


For the American perspective on the Af-Pak issue, click here. One of the observations: “The Bush strategy was maximalist only in its rhetoric,” comments one Hill Democratic foreign policy staffer. “It promised the Marshall plan but never delivered.” Obama’s plan “is trying to have a more flexible approach, to try and see what works. They don’t come in with an over-arching ideology. Be prepared to have one strategy in Kandahar and another strategy in Helmand. And one strategy in Kandahar when it has a good governor, and a different strategy if a corrupt one.”

Sharon Chadha sums it up best when she states: “As unbelievable as this may seem, Admiral Mullen still apparently hopes that he can count on support from Islamabad. As he told the Times reporter, "I’m completely convinced that the vast majority of the leaders in Pakistan understand the seriousness of the threat.”

Really. Is he smoking opium or what?”

Conclusion:

Information Minister for NWFP Iftikhar Hussain said on Thursday that 95 per cent of Pakistan’s problems could be resolved if the country (meaning : PAKISTAN) ‘stopped interfering in Afghan affairs’ and that Talibanisation is a ‘foreign-funded agenda supported by Pakistani agencies (meaning ISI) which has facilitated blood bath across Pakistan.’ ‘Its strange that we put others (meaning AFGHANISTAN, INDIA) in trouble and think all will be well here, if we kill them its Jihad, if we destroy their schools its Jihad, if we destroy their country it is termed jihad and if all this bounces on us than we wonder why it happened.’

Hamid Gul, the old veterans of ISI and Army who control Taliban and are themselves thoroughly immersed in the Taliban ideology - this is their biggest battle to survive.

Long War Journal reports: "A senior Lashkar-e-Taiba military commander behind the Mumbai terror assault and thought to be in Pakistani custody is directing complex military operations into India-held Kashmir.

Yusuf Muzammil, the senior operations director for the banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has been overheard by Indian intelligence requesting Hizbul Mujahideen Chief Syed Sallahuddin "to push a large number of militant cadres into the state" of Jammu & Kashmir."

Dawn report & Information Minister for NWFP Iftikhar Hussain were talking about these exact machinations of Pakistan Army & ISI. If Hamid Gul & team wins - its apocalypse now !

Friday, February 13, 2009

UK WAS THE BIGGEST DRUG RUNNER IN 19TH CENTURY? WHO IS IT TODAY AND WHY?

OPIUM IS THE ECONOMIC ASSET TODAY - CENTRAL ASIAN GAS IS THE ECONOMIC ASSET OF TOMORROW.

This article in 3 parts:

1. Economics of Opium trade (Historic + Current context)
2. State of economy in the US and Europe
3. Conclusion


PART 1.
ECONOMICS OF OPIUM - A SHORT HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
While the Dutch introduced Indian opium in tobacco pipes to the Chinese in 1700, it's the British which through East India Company in 1750 took control of the opium trade in India by cultivating in the states of Bengal first and then Bihar.


EAST INDIA EMBLEM:
By 1767 the British East India Company's import of opium to China reaches a staggering two thousand chests of opium per year. By 1793 the British East India Company establishes a monopoly on the opium trade. All poppy growers in India were forbidden to sell opium to competitor trading companies.

In 1817, Britain sold 240 tons of opium into China. Within ten years, the level had risen to 750 tons, and by 1837, just prior to the Opium War, it exceeded 2500 tons.


TYPICAL CHINESE OPIUM DEN

Read Amitav Ghosh's SEA OF POPPIES to get a better insight into the opium world.


R. Mukerji (in Rise and Fall of the East India Company) argued that there were compelling economic imperatives that drew the European India Companies into the path of imperialism. He pointed out that although monopoly rights assured the India Companies of the exclusive privileges of buying and selling, it did not guarantee that they could buy cheap. For that, political control was essential.

A major problem for the East India Company was that their profits were in direct conflict with those of their British-based competitors. Under these circumstances, as long as the profit motive was paramount (which it was), the Battle at Plassey, and the Opium Wars could be seen as logical outcomes of circumstances where continued profits by legal and honorable means were simply not possible. But, had the East Company comprised of "Gentlemen Traders" as some historians have claimed, they could not have switched so easily from trading in Indian Textiles, to trading in Opium for Tea which, in modern language - would surely be described as a form of "drug-running"!

Had the traders of the East India Company been "men of honour", denied the right to profitable trade, they would have simply gone bankrupt, as so many do in the world of business!

Throughout much of the 19th Century the principal British export to China by this trading company was opium, grown in British colonies in India and Bengal. Opium exceeded in value the total of all other export trade commodities the British were selling in China, despite that opium was illegal under Chinese law.
The trade enriched the British at home and supported their colonies abroad. Hence The issues that sparked the Opium War were economic.

Opium wars is a different subject altogether, however the main points we can infer from the above:

1. The British used opium to profit. If they had not, they would have gone bankrupt. – and even “GOD COULD NOT HAVE SAVED THE QUEEN. THE OPIUM DID.”

2. If the British went bankrupt, they could not keep their colonies intact, or expand and maintain hegemony around the globe and expand their empire.

3. UK became the first official drug runner in the world and a good one at that.


Let us remember the above 3 points and fast forward to present and land in the country called Afghanistan.

OPIUM ECONOMIC - PRESENT:

1. Afghanistan produced 6700 tons of opium in 2006, 8200 tons in 2007 and 7700 tons in 2008. On average, the world demand of opium-based narcotics, including heroin, is only half of this production. Where is the rest of opium going? Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UNODC is convinced that is the only explanation. In a recent bulletin he issues an urgent order: 'Find the missing opium.' "As a priority, intelligence services need to examine who holds this surplus, where it may go, and for what purpose" he says. "We know little about these stockpiles of drugs, besides that they are not in the hands of farmers."

2. British and American forces – this includes all kinds of Americans such regular forces, CIA, Socom and contractors – have been buying and storing all the surplus opium. (See the movie American Gangster to figure out US military complicity in narcotics trade).

3. This report gets credence from the fact that about 70% of all opium production in Afghanistan comes from Helmand province, an area under the direct control of the British and the Americans.

4. The Taliban, when they were in control of Afghanistan, nearly eradicated the opium cultivation in Afghanistan. This was started again and in “enormous quantities” once the British & American troops took control of Hemland province.

See graph below : In 2001 the Taliban nearly eradicated opium from Afghanistan.


5. The Americans who wanted to put in Unocal pipelines when the Taliban were in power put Hamid Karzai as the President of Afghanistan. Incidentally, Hamid Karzai was a consultant to UNOCAL.

6. The biggest drug baron in Afghanistan happens to be Ahmed Wali Karzai. Incidentally, he happens to be the brother of Hamid Karzai. One of the many incidents : When Afghan security forces found an enormous cache of heroin hidden beneath concrete blocks in a tractor-trailer outside Kandahar in 2004, the local Afghan commander quickly impounded the truck and notified his boss.

Before long, the commander, Habibullah Jan, received a telephone call from Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Hamid Karzai, asking him to release the vehicle and the drugs, Jan later told American investigators

7. Mr. Izzatullah Wasifi, a brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, was arrested by the U.S. authorities from Caesars Palace, California, along with his wife Fereshteh Behbahani on July 15, 1987, for the trafficking of high quality heroin. Wasifi was sentenced for three years and eight months while his wife was sentenced to three years probation. However after the formation of Karzai government in Kabul, Izzatullah Wasifi was made the Governor of Farah province of Afghanistan and later, last year, his brother, Hamid Karzai, appointed him as the all powerful Chief of Afghanistan’s General Independent Administration of Anti-Corruption with responsibilities to prevent the Opium growth and Heroin production and its illicit export.

Keeping in view Mr. Wasifi’s past, it is nothing less than stunning to notice that the person who a few years ago was a drug trafficker is today Afghanistan’s chief anti-drug trafficking officer. Wasifi used to be an anchor between the Afghan drug barons and the Western drug buyers and used to run a drug trafficking operations.

8. As per DEA, Dawood Ibrahim is among the top 3 drug runners in the world today. He is most likely in the business together with the people who are mentioned in point 1 (people who are stockpiling the opium). Note that the Americans and British are not at all interested in catching Dawood. And for that matter – neither is India. (yes, neither is India – a host of politicians cutting across political lines are in Dawood’s monthly payout list).

Read this article : WHY THE CIA DOES NOT WANT INDIA TO HAVE DAWOOD?

Also read this article: Dawood Ibrahim fits the billing for one of Cheney’s “unsavory” intelligence sources.

In the above article it is mentioned: "DAWOOD Ibrahim, according to our sources, played an important part in Cheney’s and Rumsfeld’s “shadow war” after 9/11. It was Ibrahim, for example, who used his criminal network to track down the killers of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl in Pakistan. Ibrahim’s men were also used to provide protection for Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai in Pakistan and Afghanistan, especially when the Afghan frequented gay brothels in Pakistan. Ibrahim’s enterprises, called “D-Company,” ensured that U.S. supply ships in the Arabian Sea were protected from attack, that the U.S. embassy in Islamabad was not targeted for terrorist attack, arranged for reasonable port fees to be assessed for U.S. ships in Dubai in support of the Iraq war, that U.S. sailors and contractors in Dubai were protected, and that all the kickbacks for Cheney’s Halliburton and other U.S. contractors were properly laundered through Dubai banks. Ibrahim’s network also ensured that the land route from Karachi to Afghanistan allowed U.S., Indian, and other nations’ goods to move into the landlocked country unimpeded."

9. Incidentally the Russian intelligence said the money and logistics for 26/11 came from Dawood. The contract to kill Ajmal Kazav has been given by ISI to Dawood. And the inference one can draw is that Dawood is working with the British and American intelligence on the drug trade – albeit circutatiously. After all, even after the economic downturn who has the money to buy opium at today’s prices and hoard it? It is the US.


DAWOOD IBRAHIM:



Keep the first 3 points in mind and after reading the 9 points above, what do you think is happening? If the UK did it in 19th century, can the US + UK do it in 21st century? After all, how badly screwed is the western world financially?

Answer is YES
, they can do it. The American did it in 20th century too.. (See American Gangster - the movie based on true story).

PART 2:
But why will they do it? It is because the economy of the western world and US is badly in a tailspin downwards. Here is a picture :

From my article on November 1st:

The official version of US debt which is USD 10 trillion. The actual US debt, including "invisibles" or off balance sheet transactions is closer to USD 58 TRILLION. This includes the staggering USD 1 trillion credit card debt that will most likely see the collapse of Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. The sub-prime mortgage losses will be closer to USD 3 trillion and not USD 1 trillion.

Such is the extent of "greed" that is boggles the mind. This can be seen if one sees the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) markets. The CDS market is worth a staggering $ 62 trillion up from USD 900 billion in 2000. (Note: USD 1000 billion = 1 trillion). Which means that this (CDS) Wall Street speculation racket is 5 times the size of all holdings in NYSE (New York Stock Exchange).

If this debt is averaged out: EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD IN THE US OWES A DEBT OF USD 500,000 ( half a million dollars) when their average yearly salary is USD 40,000.

This will lead to austerity measures, where the US citizen is going to opt for positive savings, for the first time (instead of feeding his consumption by borrowed money). MORE SAVINGS means less DISPOSABLE INCOME. This will lead to LESS CONSUMPTION, threatening to pull the US economy down further.

To kickstart the economy, the US Govt will have pump in huge Investments, CROWDING OUT private investments. Lower interest rates will give the catalyst for the investments. This is the begining of a worldwide recession that is expected to last until at least late 2009 (Paul Krugman is saying 10 years). Keep an eye on 3 things:


1. CDS Market : It is currently at US $ 62 TRILLION. The higher it goes, longer will be the pain.

2. PRICE OF GOLD: If the price of Gold is US $ 700 or begins to go down, then US will be in DEFLATIONARY PERIOD.

3. DOLLAR INDEX : If this index holds above 70 - the US can prints its way out of the recession (pretty much what it had been doing). However, if the index falls below 70, future growth will be killed as this will lead to higher interst rates and inflation (hence no crowding out effect as govt will not be able to raise cheap debt)


To avoid a long recession, deflation - the US is fighting on many fronts.

Bretton Woods I gave rise to NATO - the hedge against a Russian invasion. Bretton Woods I became a political program and not an economic one. When loans to fund Western Europe's re-development failed to stimulate growth - the LOANS became GRANTS - aka the MARSHALL PLAN. Today , the US cannot afford any Marshall Plans.

The question naturally arises on the primacy of the dollar. Can EURO take over. The answer is NO. The EURO is only a DECADE old and is not backed either by i) SOVREIGN TAXING POWER or by ii) A CENTRAL BANK WITH VAST AUTHORITY. Relying on a currency (EURO) that is dependant on the will of 15 disparate countries DOES NOT MAKE FOR A RELIABLE RESERVE CURRENCY. Hence CHINA, JAPAN, GERMANY, FRANCE etc will ensure that the PRIMACY OF THE US DOLLAR REMAINS.

As on Feb’09 – the US Fed is pumping in money into the US economy in double digits clearly opening it to hyper inflation if things go out of hand. However as stated in point 3 above, as long as the dollar index holds above 70 the US can print its way out of trouble.

BUT: "The Fed is sending a message that it will print money to an unlimited extent until it starts to see the economy expanding," William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed said.

Well, it's about time that Ben "Printing Press" Bernanke lived up to his moniker. With a Fed rate cut to zero percent, the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) era begins. But Japan has already tried that and all they got was a "lost decade" of deflation, and a yen carry trade that contributed to a bunch of grand global distortions after that.

A US commentator stated: The USDX has crashed below the critical level of 80 in what looks like a classic if not very pronounced head-and-shoulders formation. That has pulled gold prices up to $850, which is also a critical level, being the famed Jan 1980 resistance level. We are balanced on the proverbial knife edge now, with gold and the US dollar sitting at over 20-year resistance/support levels.

This is the trigger event that many in the contrarian community have been waiting for. The community has called for US hitting zero interest rates years ago in advance of the fact. What happens next is the trillion-dollar question. The deflationists are pointing at Japan, while the inflationists are pointing at Zimbabwe. The community consensus for now seems to be Japan-style deflation for the short term, *followed by* Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation further out.

Let me present : Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute.

I may not believe all that Celente says but he is hard to dismiss as another crackpot doomsdayer. He comes with serious “credibility”.

He is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events. The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November 2007 that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "financial giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.

He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent. (WOW – 90%)


His interview in Fox News


Fox is a neo-con channel and Celente is anything but a neo-con. American pay a huge premium to background for interviews. By interviewing Celente in a pub, Fox is trivializing the message Celente gives. All this is, of course, deliberate.

Now, if what Celente says has a probability of 10% - then it’s a huge financial conundrum that US and Western world is looking into. (we will not look at effect on China and India to complicate this article).

Also read The Telegraph article of 16th Feb, written by KP Nayar: DESOLATE & DEVASTATED IN AMERICA.

PART 3:
Suffice to say, does the opium trade and US & UK complicity now make “economic” sense?

Hence Opium is the economic asset of today, the Central Asian gas is the economic asset of tomorrow (Central Asian gas has been covered extensively in Great Game and Ultimate Game articles, earlier).

The US & UK are not going to move out of Afghanistan, come what may and see the collapse of their empire exacerbated.