The huge gas reserves of Yolotan-Osman gas fields in Turkmenistan has increased the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan. USA is increasing its military strength - putting in an extra 30,000 troops by Mid 2009.
It seems US had only one plan – to keep the trophy of the Central Asian gas to itself. It was looking for partners who will support it in its logistical endeavour, as it was clearly in a land, far away from the mainland USA. With India having a cosy relationship with Russia almost through the 90s, and Pakistan providing the shortest pipeline route to warm waters of these Central Asian gas reserves, it was a no-brainer when USA supported Pakistan over India in geo-political and military matters. USA deliberately overlooked the Pakistani nuclear smuggling network, as its eyes were on the lucrative CARs gases and for that break up the Soviets was absolutely necessary. Pakistan provided the battleground to push the Soviets out of Afghanistan.
It is a fascinating story how Soviet Union was lured into Afghanistan for its ultimate break-up, the BEAR TRAP, but that is not for this blog.
Suffice it to say, the team of Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz were active in oil & gas for much of their lives. These are the people who are / were in very senior positions in George Bush’s government. The names of "oil & energy" companies:Enron, Unocal, Halliburton are synonymous with Rumsfeld, Cheney & Wolfowitz – be it for employment, or for pipeline contracts while in government charge, contributions to Republican party, or even stock-options. Dick Cheney was even on the Kazakstan Oil Advisory Board. These were very interesting connections and again a thesis can be written but I am going to end here.
Add the name of Condolezza Rice to this trio – there was a Chevron oil tanker named “The Condoleeza Rice” prior to her taking charge of NSA in 2001.
RUMSFELD & CHENEY IN 19751976: IRAN & US NUCLEAR PLANTS:
While USA (with Israel) is now trying to bomb suspected nuclear sites in Iran today, in 1976 Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and White House Chief of Staff Dick Cheney unsuccessfully lobbied for the construction of a nuclear reprocessing plant in Iran. The two men devised the scheme because, they say, Iran needs a nuclear power program to meet its future energy needs. This is despite the fact that Iran has considerable oil and gas reserves. The deal would be lucrative for US corporations like Westinghouse and General Electric, which would make $6.4 billion from the project.
The USA today wants to control the flow of oil & gas from Central Asian regions through its pipelines and the ports of its choice. It will not want to sell all to Western nations, but depending on good and "reciprocal" behaviour to Russia and China too. But the control of the gas will be vested with USA. Russia and China have other plans.
The earlier US Plan:
USA wanted a stable partner for Central Asian gas and it found one in Pakistan. After the Soviets left, the Taliban took over in due course. The Taliban was a creation of ISI. At that time, CIA & ISI were “brothers in arms” and things were on course. Unocal took over the de-facto USA plans for pipeline access from CARs through Afghanistan and onto the warm ports of Karachi.
The then US Assistant Secy of State for South Asian Affairs, ROBIN RAPHAEL went on to state – “The Taliban capture of Kabul is a POSITIVE STEP.”
Another senior US Diplomat stated : “The Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did. There will be Aramco, pipelines, an Emir, no parliament and lots of shari’a law. We can live with that.”
On December 4th 1997, the representatives of Taliban were invited guests at the Texas headquarters of UNOCAL to negotiate support for the pipeline. Bill Clinton was the President and George W Bush was the governor of Texas at that point.
The US wanted Taliban to stabilize Afghanistan, wracked as it was in brutal infighting by warring tribes. The US wanted someone – anyone who can bring in stabilization for business to flow uninterrupted.
Unocal was to set up gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. And Halliburton was to provide drilling services in Turkmenistan (Dick Cheney, the Vice President of USA, was the CEO of Halliburton).
US told Pakistan to use ISI and effect a change in Afghanistan – allow Taliban forces to take over and allow Unocal to start business. If that happens, the USA will recognise the TALIBAN government in Afghanistan.
Unocal Vice President John J. Maresca - (later to become a Special Ambassador to Afghanistan) - testifies before the House of representatives that until a single, unified, friendly government is in place in Afghanistan the trans-Afghani pipeline will not be built.
The US viewed the Islamic countries in CARs and Middle East as different states and it needed to be brought into a confederation of states – for oil to flow smoothly. Much like the United States of America, they will be called the United States of Islam. This would be akin to the Islamic Caliphate that the Islamists were dreaming of. US fed Pakistan the dream of taking over this Islamic Caliphate, after all it had the Islamic bomb and its military was running the show for Saudi Arabian air force and UAE too.
USA looked at the Islamic Caliphate as a giant oil MNC and Pakistan as the COO with itself as the CEO. However, Pakistan started thinking, why be the COO when it can become the CEO too?
USA too, soon realized that this United Islamic concept was simply not possible, the inner contradictions of these countries will not allow an Islamic Caliphate to take place. Also ISI started acting out of the confines and tasks given to it and started operating to the detriment of USA and Western forces (discussed before – like Somalia, Bosnia etc). In Bosnia ISI actions of arming Bosnian Muslims with top of the line anti-tank missiles brought upon USA wrath – Bill Clinton was going to declare Pakistan as a terrorist nation which was averted when Pakistan sacked ISI Chief Javed Nasir.
USA realized that the ISI has morphed into a different entity, spawning its own terror units for deniable operations that hurt the US. The honeymoon with ISI started turning sour. On the other hand, ISI moved with impunity across the globe, in Philippines, in South Asia, in Europe. See my article ISI & AL QAEDA.
9/11 changed the contours of USA plans. Sandy Berger, Clinton's National Security Advisor, has stated, "You show me one reporter, one commentator, one member of Congress who thought we should invade Afghanistan before September 11 and I'll buy you dinner in the best restaurant in New York City."
Omar Sheikh Sayeed was the alleged person who wired the money to the attackers. There are insinuations that he is a British intelligence asset. The rationale for this stems from the fact that Omar Sayeed went to UK to meet his parents, twice, after being released by India in Kandahar air hijack, and he was not even detained at the airport. That he is under house arrest, is to deny him access to western media / intelligence agencies.
Whatever the truth – USA which had no reason to go back to Afghanistan, had one now. See also how the 9/11 commission covered up Pakistan and ISI’s role in 9/11.
Can USA attack its own country for a stated overseas military objective? If one looks at Operations Northwoods, one will be tempted to say : YES.
OPERATION NORTHWOODS:
This document, titled “Justification for U.S. Military Intervention in Cuba” was provided by the JCS to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara on March 13, 1962, as the key component of Northwoods. Written in response to a request from the Chief of the Cuba Project, Col. Edward Lansdale, the Top Secret memorandum describes U.S. plans to covertly engineer various pretexts that would justify a U.S. invasion of Cuba. These proposals - part of a secret anti-Castro program known as Operation Mongoose - included staging the assassinations of Cubans living in the United States, developing a fake “Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washington,” including “sink[ing] a boatload of Cuban refugees (real or simulated),” faking a Cuban airforce attack on a civilian jetliner, and concocting a “Remember the Maine” incident by blowing up a U.S. ship in Cuban waters and then blaming the incident on Cuban sabotage.
James Bamford himself writes that Operation Northwoods “may be the most corrupt plan ever created by the U.S. government.” Or was it the most corrupt?
ISI and Pakistan army, not satisfied with the Islamic Caliphate, wanted, dreamt and plotted about the break up of India with a 1000 cuts – see these two maps 2012 and 2020 Pakistan maps that was discussed in this article: GREATER PAKISTAN.
A broken India, if at all possible, will be a nightmare for USA in light of hostile Islamic regions surrounding USA if it were to stabilize its role in Afghanistan on one hand and contain China on the other. USA realised, a stronger INDIA is its better bet but not a VERY STRONG India.
USA meantime, too, realized that it had created a monster without the safety valve. ISI has morphed into an untamable monster with an appetite for global jehad and most importantly the means to do so too.
The Mumbai attacks of 26/11 will have dispelled doubts amongst the fence sitters about the intention of Pakistan. Hence these attacks definitely do not help Pakistan and the way the events have unmasked its terror nurseries. At superficial levels it helps Pakistan Army, only if the Indian Army started mobilizing its troops, giving Pak Army reasons to disengage itself from its disastrous military campaign against the Taliban on Afghan border. India, has so far, not played ball.
USA moves onto Plan B.
The Changed US Plan:
USA is not going to give up on access to Central Asian gas. If ISI and Pakistan was not playing ball, it would be made to play ball or it will break up Pakistan. Benazir assassination and the departure of Musharraf paved the way for a pliant Pakistan government, subservient to US.
The US is attacking militant hideouts in NWFP regions of Pakistan with impunity and under coercive diplomacy the Pakistan Army has to take care of militant hiding and operating from its territories. Attacking Taliban has been the biggest “nightmare” for Pakistan Army. As discussed earlier, Taliban was the brain child of ISI and it was made to create strategic depth in Afghanistan. Pakistan Army embedded its soldiers into Taliban – this fact can be easily ascertained from the huge Pakistan Army evacuation of Kunduz when Taliban was surrounded by Northern Alliance forces. Taliban who were supported and mollycoddled by Pakistan Army is up in arms against this “treacherous” role of the Pakistan Army, and this has created a civil war like situation within Pakistan. A situation ripe for working on the ethnic fault lines of Pakistan.
Ahmed Quraishi from Pakistan writes: As part of psych-ops, 40-feet wide billboards that have mysteriously sprung up on the main roads of NWFP showing the map of a new country – Pashtunistan – with meticulously defined borders that incorporate most of northwestern Pakistan. This ‘billboard campaign’ has to be the boldest statement of rebellion and separatism ever made in the history of nation-states anywhere in the world.
The deliberate destabilization of Pakistan through American military and political interference will result in turning large parts of the country against the federal government and increasingly draw the military into a civil war that will bleed us for decades to come in the presence of covert support from Afghan soil.
Ethnic politics, the new Trojan horse of anyone who wants to meddle in our affairs, have to be ended through legislation and by creating more provinces on administrative lines and by strengthening Pakistani nationalism. The question is: Who will do this? The current crop of politicians can’t. The military is not trained to do this, at least not alone. I am afraid we are soon approaching a situation where something will have to be thought of outside the box.
It’s either this or more separatist billboards in the future.”
This is the exact thinking of the Pakistan Army too. It wants to move its soldiers from Western borders of Afghanistan to the Indian border and it needed a reason to do so. The Mumbai attacks gave it a reason – hence one concluded that 26/11 was a Pakistani Army job.
Pakistan military strategists saw that instead of the original plan of becoming the CEO of the Islamic Caliphate the USA, together with India is now instrumental in making Pakistan a smaller entity. And there is no way, any self respecting Pakistani esp., its Army was willing to go down without a fight. Was 26/11 – a “thinking out of the box” strategy?
THE NEW SMALLER PAKISTAN AS PER THE NEO-CONS IN USA:
THE NEW SMALLER PAKISTAN AS PER THE AFGHANS:
Whichever one ultimately comes about, the net loser will be Pakistan. And Pakistan Army, aware of this, wanted to pre-empt the plans. As I have said before, it was helped along as someone played into Pak Army's insecurities.
Yes 26/11 it was indeed a Pakistani Army job, which contracted the work to ISI, which then sub-contracted the work to Laskhar e Taiba.
But how is this connected to the USA and its plans for the Central Asian gas and a greater plan for breaking up Pakistan today?
USA knows the visceral hatred the Pakistan Army and ISI has of India. It just needed to play along these fears.
In comes Michael Vickers with his vast contacts in Afghanistan and Pakistan especially with the Mujahideens. As stated before : Vickers was the principal strategist for covert CIA operations in Afghanistan that resulted in the defeat, and subsequent break up of the Soviet Union. If there is one man who can be credited for the break up of Soviet empire - it is Vickers.
His greatest influence was in the precise way he reassessed the potential of Afghan guerrilla forces and prescribed the right mix of weaponry to attack Soviet weaknesses.
At the height of Afghan operation, he was giving strategic and operational direction to 300 unit commanders, 150,000 full time and 500,000 part time fighters ("mujahideens"). He co-ordinated the efforts of TEN countries and oversaw an annual budget of US $ 2 billion.
Presently, Special Operations Command (SOCOM) which is part of the portfolio that Vickers handles is based in Tampa, FL. It's annual budget is US$ 8 BILLION and more than 60,000 covert and overt personnel are on its payroll. Vickers also sits on 3rd floor of Pentagon "C" Ring.
Is Pakhtunistan Michael Vickers' parting gift for his Afghan Mujahids? Only time will tell.
A sudden spurt of US spies (special operations group_ have been reported in the past one year in Baluchistan and FATA areas. There are "declared" US spies who run operations together with ISI, but these were covert spies operating out of the ISI ambit in Pakistani territory. Was Jude Kenan, an American caught in FATA, one such covert operative?
In August 2007 a representative of the jihadi outfit - a burly man in mid thirties with medium-length, thick beard met an American in Sadabahar who was dressed like a Pushtun. The meeting lasted more than three hours and the jihadi left with a canvas bag full of cash.
The American could not be identified but the jihadi was traced to a splinter group of LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba). As is known, LeT is not a single entity; it is more like a brand name, used by many groups with diverse objectives and split loyalties.
The jihadi went to Karachi and met a colleague in Shah Faisal Colony and apparently gave him some of the cash he received from the American in Quetta. This assumption is based on the fact that the jihadi’s colleague in Shah Faisal Colony purchased a flashy SUV a few days later. And Benazir Bhutto was assassinated a few months later (direct connection not established that it was this money that was used, but people in the know state that this is so).
Again, this LeT is involved in the Mumbai blasts. Let us look at LeT from a different angle.
In 1988, Abu Abdur Rahman Sareehi, a Saudi and a deputy of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, founded an organization in the Afghan Kunar Valley which recruited Afghan youths and Pakistanis in Bajaur Agency to fight the Soviets. Sareehi was the brother-in-law of Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi, (ALLEGED MASTERMIND OF MUMBAI 26/11 ATTACKS) now named by the US Treasury and the Security Council as chief of operations for the LET. Seed money for the training camps was provided by Bin Laden.
BAHAZIQ A SAUDI INTELLIGENCE PROXY:
Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq, (described by the US Treasury as the main LET financier in the 1980s and 1990s and now named by the Security Council as a terrorist) was a Saudi intelligence proxy planted in the network.
He built up his influence in the network with Saudi money and eventually established Markaz Dawa wal Irshaad. The name related to a renowned Saudi office for preaching Islam.
MARKAZ HIJACKED BY RSA INTELLIGENCE AND CIA:
This organization was then COMPLETELY HIJACKED by Saudi intelligence and the CIA and later operated under the name Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). To be fair to USA & RSA (Repuplic of Saudi Arabia), their intention was more to infiltrate the LeT than to use it for terror purposes.
CIA and Pakistan establishment never went after LeT - as LeT never attacked Pakistan and any US interests. The ban on LeT was laughable at best.
After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US, it renamed itself Jamaatut Dawa and clearly distanced itself from al-Qaeda.
The above statements are all facts. There is a connection of LeT to CIA & Saudi intelligence. There is a connection of LeT to Mumbai blasts. LeT was infiltrated by the CIA and RSA (Saudi) intelligence. What can this mean?
The 10 terrorists that attacked Mumbai were supposed to go to Kashmir. The ISI forward station head in Karachi and Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi changed their destination to Mumbai. Why was this done and under whose orders?
Russia stated that Dawood Ibrahim’s drug money was used in 26/11. Dawood is listed as the top 3 drug barons of the world by USA. And India recently said, it is more interested in Masood Azhar than Dawood Ibrahim – is this not strange?
Hamid Karzai’s brother is the largest drug baron in Afghanistan. And Afghanistan produced 6000 tons of opium in 2006, 8200 tons in 2007 and 7700 tons in 2008. On average, the world demand of opium-based narcotics, including heroin, is only half of this production. Where is the rest of opium going?
American forces – this includes all kinds of Americans such regular forces, CIA, Socom and contractors – have been buying and storing all the surplus opium. (See the movie American Gangster to figure out US military complicity in narcotics trade).
This report gets credence from the fact that about 70% of all opium production in Afghanistan comes from Helmand province, an area under the direct control of the Americans.
What would the Americans do with all this opium?
Experts are of the view that this opium, in raw or refined form, would be spread in the neighbouring countries (Pakistan, India, Iran, Central Asia and China). Some of it would go to Russia also.
This would bring several advantages to the Americans:
1. By increasing drug addiction in target countries, Americans would sap the economies of these countries and produce the generations of junkies that would be long-term liabilities for their countries;
2. If the opium is mostly consumed in the neighbourhood, less of it would be left for export to the American markets;
3. Narcotics are a traditional source of additional revenues for the American forces, especially the CIA. However, in this case, the US is not making money as it is subsidizing sales in CARs, INDIA, PAKISTAN & RUSSIA for a "different" reason (explained in points 1 & 2 above).
The suspicion that the American want to spread drug addiction in the neighbouring countries is also supported by the fact that even though the ‘farm-gate’ price of opium has remained stable at nearly US $ 70 per kilo, it is becoming available in the neighbouring countries at around US $ 40 per kilo. Clearly, the Americans are subsidizing the export.
Coming back to Pakistan, the latest NIE (of USA ) describes Pakistan as – No money, no energy and no government.
If USA now wants to break Pakistan, it cannot do so alone. There has to be military participation of India to break Pakistan’s strong army. Someone has to play the game for USA and that attack on Mumbai can be looked at that game changing scenario that broke the stupour of Indian politicians and let it be aligned with Indian Army’s vision which matched the US vision for the region.
USA wants to de-fang Iran but is in no position to do so itself. It has to show as an existential thereat to Israel and Israel will then attack Iran alone.
USA wants to India to tackle Pakistan and Israel to tackle Iran.
The next game changer will either be an attack inside India or more likely an attack within USA that will fast forward the military option and pincer attacks on Pakistan from two fronts.
My point – even if USA was involved in 26/11, albeit in a circuitous way, it has done India more good than harm. (Some commentators may disagree, but its ok – this is after all a view).
While India should be aligned with the short term vision of USA today, it is the long term vision of USA that India needs to be wary of. Before looking at these long term visions, USA has showed India two cards it will not hesitate to play, should India not play along with USA in these plans:
1.Open the Kashmir card – which US alluded to, it might do by sending Bill Clinton as a special representative
2. Last week of September 2008, USA brokered a meeting in Mecca. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hosted the talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban militant group, according to a source familiar with the talks.
India, together with Russia and Iran pumped in money and armaments to Northern Alliance force that fought the Taliban in Afghanistan. Any talks with Taliban will raise the hackles of these three countries.
Obviously, both the above options have “deadly” consequences for India. And India will see to it, that the above two do not come about. And US knows that it will continue to prick India with these uncomfortable situations to bring it “in line” to its game plan in the Great Game.
THE PAKISTANI VIEWPOINT:
Mushahid Hussain, General Secretary of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Foreign Relations committee made the following statements about the current Indo-Pak relations, in Indian Express: - a few of his comments:
1. I feel American clout in the region has weakened. America as a superpower is not all that powerful. Now there’s a resurgent Russia, a rising China, emerging India, a stronger Iran and Pakistan is a regional power. But among our political and military elite, there’s infatuation with America. Still, the Americans told us to join the war in Iraq, we refused. They opposed the Iran pipeline, we didn’t agree. We recognize the Hamas government in Palestine, they don’t. We made the bomb despite American opposition. We have close relations with China despite American opposition.
2. Pakistan’s future is linked with China. The 21st century will be an Asian century. For me, the interesting question is: which way will India go? Will it play the role of the frontman for USA against China or will it go with the tide of the Asian century?
The contours of Mushahid’s statements cannot be more “clearer” - which is also the Pakistan military view. Pakistan is at the cusp of moving from American arms into the waiting arms of China – lock, stock and barrel. A fact, that will not at all go well with the strategic planners in USA.
CONCLUSIONS:
The US military is burning nearly 600000 gallons of fuel per day. More than 80% of this comes from Pakistan, through 700 or so road tankers that are vulnerable to all kinds of attacks on their long journey from facilities in Pakistan to American bases in Afghanistan. And ISI has increased the attacks to these NATO convoys through Taliban in their depots in Peshawar. However, there are people who say that these attacks on NATO convoys are the work of Taliban who are carrying out orders from non-ISI masters (whatever that means).
The reserves in Afghanistan will suffice for only two weeks if the supply line is disrupted.
Aware of this, the Americans have been trying to create an alternate route through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Even if the alternate route is opened fully, it is very long and inefficient and there are risks that Americans are not in a position to counter at present.
There is need to abandon the Pakistan route but there is nothing to replace it.
Benefits of bifurcating Pakistan: From American point of view, there are many benefits in creating an independent Balochistan:
1.An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
2.Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean.
3.An independent Balochistan will be the place from where Americans can maintain permanent pressure on Iran, even in the remote possibility that they may have to eventually leave Iraq.
4.China and Russia will be denied any access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
5.The Gulf countries will remain dependent on the USA for export routes of their hydrocarbon products.
6.Full control of the entrance to the Gulf will enable USA to allow or deny oil flow by tankers to any country in the world.
7.Central Asia is a land-locked region and the whole region would be on the mercy of the United States.
If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, the rest of Pakistan is likely to exist as a perpetually unstable entity, creating a permanent source of trouble for India. This fits nicely with other American plans because India has come very close to becoming an economic rival of the United States.
Also:
1. One logical consequence is that India and Pakistan would probably go to war or at least move their forces to the borders in a position of war readiness. Every expert knows that keeping forces ready for war is nearly seven to eight times more expensive than keeping them in the barracks. This is an excellent way to make sure that Indian and Pakistani economies would be crippled for a long time to come.
2. India and Pakistan are negotiating for two gas pipelines, one from Iran and the other from Turkmenistan. There are also plans to put oil pipelines from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to South Asia. USA would use every method to deny India the energy resources of Central Asia and IranIndia is not what USA has in mind. The tide has reversed already and it is not to the liking of the Americans. Students from the United States are now coming to India, Indian businessmen are giving tough time to American corporations worldwide, and India has entered some of the export markets that were traditionally dominated by the west. In short, a weak India will be acceptable as a friend but a strong India will be a pain in the neck for Americans.
The game changers and the current situation sits well with the Neo-Cons who have ensured that Obama is tied to the events and plans as envisaged by the Neo - Cons.
Obama has kept Robert Gates as defense secretary. And Bill Richarson comes in as Energy Secretary - the same Bill Richardson who as US Ambassador to the UN in 1988 met the Taliban officials in Kabul (illegally as US did not recognize the Taliban as legitimate Afghanistan government) - all for pipeline through Afghanistan. Which means - under Obama - Afghanistan policy will not change.
MICHAEL VICKERS in 2006 said: "Again, Pakistan is a critical ally in the war on terror, but life’s not perfect. But again, what’s the alternative—invade the Northwest Frontier Provinces? Good luck. You know—and so there’s a—you know, there’s a time and place."
The time is now INDIA - it is NOW!
However, Pakistan feels at most India will precision bomb the terrorist training camps (which are anyway emptied out) in POK and nothing more. All this "bravado" that Congress is showing is only for elections that are due in 2009 to steal the thunder from BJP. Are they correct?
MY 2 CENTS WORTH : This article to show the importance of USA and how India must hedge its bet in the Great Game. The villain is not USA, it is PAKISTAN. Pakistan attacked because it wanted to. Pakistan's aims and designs on India remain the same - To bleed India by 1000 cuts and use home grown "jehadis" for terrorism. Mumbai attacks have opened an avenue for Indian military action - let us not shy away from this moment. CARPE DIEM - SIEZE THE DAY. JAI HIND!
(CLICK ON THE MAP FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW). This map is drawn by an American, so please excuse their lack of knowledge of the map of J&K. If I were to remove this map, on the basis of this serious error, I will not be able to present their plans to you - the detailed NATO bases. Also you will have noticed the derogatory term used "hillbillies" which connotes to people who dwell in remote "mountainous" areas. (earlier referred to American Indian tribes of Appalachia and Ozarks).
38 comments:
well, i really really hope this comes true... a broken pakistan will surely work in our favor... but we must ensure that these nasty americans dont break us in future as they r capable... hence we must thread cautiously
@B.U.A
Makes sense. Balochistan is a very strategically located region, especially for America's great game. By annexing Balochistan, USA kills a flock of birds with one stone. Here are some other points:
1. USA may take over Gwadar; which effectively cuts China's stake in the Indian Ocean. (For maximum usefullness, USA should support India's claim over Kashmir to completely cut China's border with Pakistan, denying them any access to the warm waters of the Indian ocean)
2. Encircles Iran effectively. Iran will be sanwitched between Balochistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, all US strongholds. In this case, Pakistan would have no border with Iran. Hence there's no chance of Iranian gas going anywhere to Asia proper (that includes India) since it will have to pass some US controlled territory. At the same time, America can control Iran's trade (especially import of essentials from Asia proper - e.g. Taftan route). Apart from the land route, the sea route to Iran will be under American control, as you mentioned.
3. Balochistan has large reserves of Gold and Copper (Saindak) and this is currently controlled by the Chinese. I'm sure the US would like to grab the pie (instead of "dipping its finger"). Apart from these precious metals, Balochistan has significant reserves of other resources including natural gas. A large proportion of gas and coal that is supplied to Pakistan's powerhouses (Punjab & Sindh) are from Balochistan. The region is believed to hold the biggest chunk of Pakistan's energy reserves but little efforts have been put into exploration for new reserves by Pakistan's defunct government. By controlling Balochistan, US will have direct control over Pakistan's energy supplies, together with a considerable bounty of other resources.
It's to India's benefit if we play along to the tune to create a seperate Balochi nation. Remember, Pakistani loss is India's gain -in almost every scenario. Balochistan's loss will be a great one for Pakistan (greater than East Bengal). It's strategic value to Pakistan is immense. But as I said earlier, we should know when and where to draw the line ones the game is over, or we'll be the next Pakistan.
One question though: You said CIA and other American organisations fund their operations using money from their Afghan drug trade. How is that so when you go on to say that drugs being pushed to Central Asia, South Asia, China etc. are subsidised? How can subsidised drugs bring direct monetary gains to the "subsidiser"?
@B.U.A.
Welcome :)
Regarding the opium prices, you wrote the farm-gate price is $70, which gave an impression that the US buys it at $70 from the Afghan farmers (as farm-gate price signifies the price at which a commodity is sold by the farm / farmer, i.e. excluding all middle-men mark-ups). If you mean $70 is the prevailing selling price for opium, you should substitute "farm-gate price" with "market price".
game over 4 pak
@MAX - Checked back and here is the version. My mistake.
Farm gate price is US$ 70 and the US is subsidising the final sale at US$ 40. Farm gate price is as you described - farmer's gate price.
Hence, narcotics, which is a traditoinal source of revenue for CIA, is not so in this case, as US is subidising its sales in CIS, India, Russia for other gains and "notional" benefits for not making junkies in USA. However, CIA is not bothered about notional benefits - hence one can look at it as collateral benefits.
I will go and add this line in the article. Thanks again, for reading the article in details, and pointing out.
BuA
@B.U.A.
Even then I highly doubt that the farm-gate price is as high as $70. I'm quite positive that the US is making a profit (perhaps not substantial, but sustainable) from this trade, and the ISI is the prime distributor to India, hence ISI should also be getting "something" as they don't have the financial capability to do it free. Subsidising narcotics would be a huge burden to the American government (in addition to the massive boulders they're carrying at present) and they wouldn't be in for it. It would be less of a headache to just dispose the surplus drugs (should they fear it will end up in American shores) than to pay others to consume it.
If the US is pumping it into other countries at $40, perhaps the farm gate price may be $20, while the prevailing retail price of such narcotics are ~$70. So it's a discount, but not subsidy. And not to forget a large quantity of these also find their way into Iran (though I'm not sure who's the "marketing agent" for Iran; Taliban or CIA).
On another note, I personally rule out one of 26/11's target was to slow down India's economic growth. Yes we all know the US economy is currently in some phase of a free-fall; but even in the most optimistic scenario, the Indian economy will not surpass USA's anytime before 2025. A terror strike of that scale is not gonna cause any substantial economic loss to a trillion dollar economy, and the US will be wise enough to understand that. If they wanna bring down our economy, they're other more effective means they can use (e.g. taxing Indian exports to the US etc.)
Just my take on it.
@ Max & others - I am trying to get authorization to upload an article by a Pakistani journalist on India's military options.
He said : India has neither economic nor political leverage over Pakistan and is thus using the Uncle Sam to pressurise Pakistan. India’s military options are limited. The Indian Army, with 1.3 million active service personnel, the third largest army on the face of the planet, has little or no supply of Guided Bomb Units (GBUs) or Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs) and thus has little or no surgical strike capability.
Basically Pakistanis are saying: Congress is shouting to steal the thunder from BJP for the upcoming elections and other than a few token strikes at now empty terror camps, India just can do NOTHING.
Your views.
Thanks
BuA
@MAX : See this link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2008/10/map_of_the_week_the_mystery_of.html
It states: Theory 2: Vast quantities of heroin and morphine are being stockpiled. Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UNODC is convinced that is the only explanation. In a recent bulletin he issues an urgent order: 'Find the missing opium.' "As a priority, intelligence services need to examine who holds this surplus, where it may go, and for what purpose" he says. "We know little about these stockpiles of drugs, besides that they are not in the hands of farmers."
Further credibility is given to the stockpiling theory in that 'farm-gate' prices for opium remain pretty stable at about $70 per kilo.
So where are the thousands of tonnes of drugs that the UNODC describe as a "time bomb"?
However, in other reports, it states that the farmgate price has crashed to below US$ 50.
Probably you are right and I think so too - US is in no position to bankroll deficits per se - it will be at least at cost.
@BuA
====
Funny that you put Mushahid Hussain. I was watching him on TV yesterday and he clearly pooh poohed American sermons coming to Pakistan to do more, specially from Condoleeza Rice.
He said - Condoleeza Rice is history. We now await the new Obama team.
He said it with ease and elan. You are right, I think, they are not at all getting pushed around by the US.
Btw - the picture of the Chevron oil tanker with Condi Rice name written on it is "awesome" - simply puts "dollars" in front of their agenda.
bro, that last map is wrong...... northern areas belongs to india!!!!!!!
To BuA & Anon above:
The last map states - J&K ceded to India but northern areas are not there.
The map is drawn by the Americans and I think they would never have heard of Gilgit. So we can forgive them. LOL
Ceded - how patronising for something that belongs to us.
they have always said we cannot do things... right from 65 war when they thought chinese had weakened us and lost the war... to 71 when they thought they had usa and china on their side... to 1999 when musharraf confidently went ahead to hoist pak flag on srinagar assembly thinking india wouldnt be prepared and would lose... in all attempts they flunked... but i agree with the paks, congress is just a barking dog and wont do a thing even if they had everything.... we can get precision guided bombs from israel within 24 hours (like how they gave us uav in just 24 hrs during kargil)... we have strike fighters... we have superior pilots... only thing lacking is balls under manmohans dick... hightime he leaves... like thackery said, only indira gandhi did india some real justice
and above, yes, the whole northern areas until wakan corridor belongs to india as it was under the rule of hari singh. bua, please change your map. since when did afghanistan claim northern areas as theirs???? its ours .
this comment comes from renouned defence analyst, Prasun K Sengupta. You can access his blog at http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com
he gave me a prompt answer to my question on whether the article in THE NEWS (on India's inability to carry out precision strikes in Pakistan)is justified, and as usual got a fantastic reply.
note: this guy has no 'pro-indian bias'. if something sux, he says it sux!
---------------------------------
Prasun K Sengupta
---------------------------------
The report in THE NEWS is erroneous on several counts, but the term surgical air strike refers to an air campaign with limited specific objectives that is not part of an all-out war on a sustained basis. Can such air strikes be mounted by the IAF? Definitely yes, and you don;t need precision-guided munitions (PGM) for this, even gravity bombs can be used for such strikes. But will they achieve anything? No, they will just be punitive, that's all. Now, talking about PGMs, India definitely has the upper hand as its inventory of LGBs, LGMs and PGMs using optronic target acquisition systems (like the Popeye-Lite) is much bigger than what the PAF has. I can perfectly understand why Pakistan's armed forces are on the edge and that is because, unlike its Indian counterparts, it does not have access to strategic surveillance/intelligence-gathering tools like overhead recce satellites or MALE UAVs. In terms of the air force, the IAF today, thanks to aerial refuelling capability, can activate a strike package deep within India's interior, with its final destination being a target deep inside Pakistan. And all this is done without giving any indication whatsoever of an impending air attack since PAF air defence/early warning radars cannot look deep within Indian airspace. Therefore, the IAF can launch an offensive air campaign with virtually no warning (leave alone 4 hours or 2 days as is being said in the media). The IAF has had enough time since November 26 to activate its already wargamed contingency strike plans and this is what is now giving the PAF endless headaches. Therefore, due to all of the above, the PAF is only engaging in second-guessing the IAF's intent and capabilities, and this is what we called 'estimates-based warfare', whereas the IAF, thanks to its superior early warning-cum-battlefield surveillance systems, is ideally placed to wage 'knowledge-based warfare'.
I am a British native. Muslims r the most ungrateful buggers on earth.
Yasin Hassan Omar, the Somali asylum-seeker, is the London Warren Street bomber caught on tape on 7/7/05. Omar shared a flat with the No 26 bus bomber, Ibrahim, who moved in with him 2 years ago. Omar had been getting a £88/week housing benefit to pay for a council property flat since 1999, and also received substantial income support, immigration officials say. So for six years British taxpayers have financed Omar’s preparations to kill to the tune of £27,456 ($47,789) in rent, plus even more in other support. As it turns out all 4 bombers had been the ungrateful recipients of significant ‘welfare’ payments. Apparently violently inclined Muslim immigrants are quite savvy at exploiting such programs.
That reply by Prasun Sengupta is good. Thanks for bringing him and his blog to light. The content in it is good.
Can he tell us what type of LGBs, LGMs and PGMs India uses? Are they local or of Israeli origin? Our Jaguar strike fighters can do the job of delivery. Thanks
bengal attack, please change the last image or remove it. FANA is ours, you crazy bugger!
Will someone please tell me when Pakistan will acknowledge Kasab as one of their own? And what is India doing about it?
SM
To all Anons who have "scolded" me for putting the last map - I have added this to the main "article":
This map is drawn by an American, so please excuse their lack of knowledge of the map of J&K. If I were to remove this map, on the basis of this serious error, I will not be able to present their plans to you - the detailed NATO bases. Also you will have noticed the derogatory term used "hillbillies" which connotes to people who dwell in remote "mountainous" areas. (earlier referred to American Indian tribes of Appalachia and Ozarks).
Avid Historian ?
Guys,
I have got authorization from Farrukh Saleem to upload his article, which I will sometime today.
We can debate Laser Guided Munitions, Russian make which has been tested successfully.
Request we keep all discussions on this at abeyance till I host that article.
Let us deal with the "Ultimate Game" and our posturing here. Thanks
BUA
BUA
===
Let's assume that due to circumstances, Balochistan and Pashtunistan comes about. Who will be guarding their borders? Pakistan Army, even if badly wounded, will be more than a match for these new fledgling states.
You seem to suggest some sort of NATO troops or bases will give them military backing. But Baluchistan Liberation Army is a Soviet creation and together with India they played many a game in the region. Do you suggest that Russia and India will meekly watch as US / NATO corner gas fields around its regions.
I think this is not going to happen. Yes, Pakistan may be de-nuclearised under some "pretext", but the break up of Pakistan looks improbable.
Let me know your views.
since this bengal boy put a silly map of indian integral area as afganistan, we shd burn it like how nokia was burned
owh i didnt see his apology
@B.U.A.
That sounds more likely. The farm-gate price may be well below $70 even even at its peak (i.e. before the price crash) as bulk purchases by influential, regular buyers will surely be given preferential prices. The narcotics trade is almost entirely controlled by cartels, and these cartels are "price makers". The farmers will have to sell their produce only to these cartels; and nobody else, at the prices they dictate. When the US is in a position to make quick bucks (at these dire times), would they think of losing?
@MAX - I have not known US to make a "net" loss in drug deals.
Dawood has diversifies his drug business to Africa, where he has now dipersed his labs. Wonder if he is a "collaborator" or a "competitor".
This is one aspect, I am not clear about.
I'm of the opinion he's a collaborator. Perhaps a silent one. It's not easy for Dawood to compete with Uncle Sam.
So Max:
If Dawood is a collaborator and India has asked for JeM chief Masood Azhar and not Dawood - what kind of machinations are happening?
It seems India included the name of Hamid Gul in the list of wanted names only after US insisted India put it. Does it mean there could have been some kind of "pressure" when India verbally asked for Masood Azhar and not Dawood.
I find this posturing "intriguing". It's not as if India has already "got" hold of Dawood "somehow" or hot in his "tail"...
MAX:
Stratfor is reporting on 24th Dec:
Prior to the attacks, India’s increasingly precarious security situation and the inability of Indian security forces to effectively address the deteriorating situation had already made the country less attractive to businesses. A series of bombing attacks throughout the country in 2008, attacks against executives and above all, the Mumbai attack, all have showcased the danger of doing business in the South Asian country at present. And if military confrontation between India and Pakistan erupts in the wake of the Mumbai attacks , multinational corporations quite possibly could face a number of new threats from militant groups in addition to more traditional security problems. Because the exact nature and locations of potential Indian military action against Pakistan are not known, the specific problems multinational corporations might face cannot fully be predicted. Regardless, corporations should be prepared to respond to a number of problems with the potential to disrupt their operations and the security of their personnel.
Does something sound familiar ??
A H
====
@ BUA - I am absorbing these scary realties at present.
A.H. - Read this too !
Google Dr Brobst, Ohio University, Great Game. There are wonderful flow charts for pre-partition and post partition India scenarios in great game.
My dears...very very intelligent fellows this is your ultimate right to see dreams because you ate too much rich food in dinner and these in-digestive dreams must came to you.
These Dreams never be true..
We need Peace for Entire World.
Kindly dont take Rich food in Dinner.
Regards
Dr.Aadil Saeed
Gastroenterologist
http://pandurabox.livejournal.com
Ha Ha Ha.... If only it were that easy! Balochis tried and failed to get Balochistan! America didn't came to help them get a homeland LOL The taliban tried and failed to get Swat and Northern Areas! You fools! Uncle Sam knows that 400 Atom Bombs in the possession of Pakistan are armed and ready! This is not 1971! Its 2010 and 400 bombs are enough to wipe out Israel, India both! Do you really think America will play a nuclear game with Pakistan when ISI is in control of both the Army and civilian government! Look carefully General Kiyani is getting is army service extended, Army is in power even when Musharaf is gone. Idiots think for yourself! No one is willing to fight Pakistan in any kind of a war except a covert one! And even this is a risk! Any wrong moves and Pakistan blows up New Delhi or Israel in revenge! Now this is a chess game I would like to see from the side lines, because there will be no winners, only casualties of war, India, Pakistan, Israel, Afghanistan, America and whoever else joins the party! LOL
Ha Ha Ha.... If only it were that easy! Balochis tried and failed to get Balochistan! America didn't came to help them get a homeland LOL The taliban tried and failed to get Swat and Northern Areas!
You fools! Uncle Sam knows that 400 Atom Bombs in the possession of Pakistan are armed and ready! This is not 1971! Its 2010 and 400 bombs are enough to wipe out Israel, India both! Do you really think America will play a nuclear game with Pakistan when ISI is in control of both the Army and civilian government! Look carefully General Kiyani is getting is army service extended, Army is in power even when Musharaf is gone.
Idiots think for yourself! No one is willing to fight Pakistan in any kind of a war except a covert one! And even this is a risk! Any wrong moves and Pakistan blows up New Delhi or Israel in revenge!
Now this is a chess game I would like to see from the side lines, because there will be no winners, only casualties of war, India, Pakistan, Israel, Afghanistan, America and whoever else joins the party! LOL
If India has any sense then it should side with the Ease not the West! Believe it or not! The best ally India could ever find is Pakistan! With upto million soldiers, both regular and reserves, Pakistan shares a common border with India! What a waste! Rather than fighting Pakistan, India should get Pakistan as a friend!
If India could get Pakistan as a ally it would mean a direct challenge to China, America and Russia! Think for yourselves India and Pakistan have combined Army of 2.5 million! That is the largest Army in the world! They share the same language and culture so there will be very little difficulty to share common goals! Pakistanis love Indian culture and television! So ask yourselves why do they hate India! Just because of Kashmir! Ha ha ha, that shows how big a fool we truly are! If Kashmir is solved There is no hate between India and Pakistan! Think why is America not trying to solve the Kashmir Issue? Because that keeps the Indian and Pakistani army in both sides of Kashmir and waste their resources on each other! What if these precious military resources are not wasted in Kashmir?
Now think why did the British split Pakistan from India! Because if India was freed in its original state then I would have become a world power! It was better for them to divide India and Keep the two Parts fighting! If only India and Pakistan make some sort of military deal like NATO! Now that would make India a superpower! I being a Pakistani wish that Pakistan and India become friends! And That India become a superpower! Like Iqbal said "Saray Jahan say Acha, Hindustan Hamara!"
Being a Pakistani I say "JAY JAY HIND!" Dudes lets get this friendship started! And Soon we the Bahartis (Pakistani, Indians and Bangalis) become friends we will be the superpower unmatched!
Yours Truly
A Pakistani Indian Raja!
Ha Ha Ha.... If only it were that easy! Balochis tried and failed to get Balochistan! America didn't came to help them get a homeland LOL The taliban tried and failed to get Swat and Northern Areas!
Now this is a chess game I would like to see from the side lines, because there will be no winners, only casualties of war, India, Pakistan, Israel, Afghanistan, America and whoever else joins the party! LOL
If India has any sense then it should side with the Ease not the West! Believe it or not! The best ally India could ever find is Pakistan! With upto million soldiers, both regular and reserves, Pakistan shares a common border with India! What a waste! Rather than fighting Pakistan, India should get Pakistan as a friend!
If India could get Pakistan as a ally it would mean a direct challenge to China, America and Russia! Think for yourselves India and Pakistan have combined Army of 2.5 million! That is the largest Army in the world! They share the same language and culture so there will be very little difficulty to share common goals! Pakistanis love Indian culture and television! So ask yourselves why do they hate India! Just because of Kashmir! Ha ha ha, that shows how big a fool we truly are! If Kashmir is solved There is no hate between India and Pakistan! Think why is America not trying to solve the Kashmir Issue? Because that keeps the Indian and Pakistani army in both sides of Kashmir and waste their resources on each other! What if these precious military resources are not wasted in Kashmir?
Now think why did the British split Pakistan from India! Because if India was freed in its original state then I would have become a world power! It was better for them to divide India and Keep the two Parts fighting! If only India and Pakistan make some sort of military deal like NATO! Now that would make India a superpower! I being a Pakistani wish that Pakistan and India become friends! And That India become a superpower! Like Iqbal said "Saray Jahan say Acha, Hindustan Hamara!"
Being a Pakistani I say "JAY JAY HIND!" Dudes lets get this friendship started! And Soon we the Bahartis (Pakistani, Indians and Bangalis) become friends we will be the superpower unmatched!
Yours Truly
A Pakistani Indian Raja!
Thank you for this article, pretty helpful information.
It will not succeed as a matter of fact, that is what I consider.
I found a lot of helpful info here!
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