Friday, September 17, 2010


2020 - status quo scenario

Pakistan’s population has grown to 220 million in 2020, 80% of children coming out from madrassas spewing venom on US, Israel and India. Poverty, climate change and militancy have taken firm grip with the military ruling either directly or indirectly.

Gilgit and northern areas have become a district in Pakistan and China military presence is fixed. Gwadar port has become a Chinese Navy docking point.

With above, Pakistan will with impunity engage in terrorism inside India knowing fully well that India has been finally surrounded by Chinese forces and will not be able to do much. And Pakistan will up the ante across the length and breadth of India, bleeding the economic progress and reducing the Indian elephant into a cancerous carcass exacerbated by incompetent, pliant and corrupt politicians too busy to look at the large picture.

If the above scenario is not acceptable to us, then one has to act today – so that in future our children have a better and safer India to live in.

2020 - the way forward

Today, Pakistan is not a country but a piece of land ruled by the military. PERIOD !

While India looks at cracks in Pakistan based on religious divisions (sunni, ahmediya, shia etc) or entho-linguistic division (Sindhi, Punjabi, Balochi, Pushtun) – it has overlooked a major crack inside Pakistan that can be exploited. India has been trying to weakly exploit the ethno-liguistic divisions in Pakistan but different PMs and Home Ministers of India have had differences of opinion on the policy driven by what they deemed “we can live in peaceful co-existence”. How do you live in peace when the vast majority of Pakistani population is fed a daily diet of hatred -which enslaves people to this ideology which is then exploited by the army through its various arms including terrorist groups under its wings?

Hence, Paksitan is a bane to the civilized world as it exists today. The people of Pakistan are like any other people around the world – if they are well educated, well rounded individuals. But Pakistan today, is a basket case of terrorism, spewing cheap foot soldiers dreaming of creating Khorasan and starting wars over the world through Ghazwatul Hind.

Read Ghazwatul Hind before proceeding further by clicking on the link.

The biggest crack Pakistan has is Gini co-efficient. The mix of wealth and the organized poverty it is leading to. More poverty = more terrorist foot soldiers. Wealth and land is in the hands of 1000 or so feudal lords and their extended family. Such is their clout that they are the politicians, the judges, the senior bureaucrats. Justice system for the poor simply do not exist and this alienation too is exploited by the terrorists.

Gini Co-efficient:

A Gini Coefficient of 0 would indicate equal income for all earners. A Gini Coefficient of 1 would mean that one person had all the income and nobody else had any. Thus, a lower Gini Coefficient indicates more equitable distribution of wealth in a society, while higher a Gini Coefficient means that wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people. Sometimes, the Gini Coefficient is multiplied by 100 and expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100 ('Gini Index').

According to a US State Department report, released in 2006, the Gini Coefficient for Pakistan is 68.0 Such high rates are deemed good for revolutions.

The single most devastating factor for increased income and wealth inequalities in Pakistan remains the regressive tax system. Incidence of tax on the poor in the last 10 years has increased substantially (by about 35 per cent), while the rich are paying almost no direct tax on their colossal income and wealth. A study conducted by the Centre for Research on Poverty and Income Distribution (CRPID), 63 per cent of poor in Pakistan fall in the category of 'transitory poor'. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has also admitted in its annual reports that the standard definition of 'transitory poor' includes those households that are below the poverty line for most of the time, but not always, during a defined period.

The remaining 32 per cent and five per cent of the population that subsist below the poverty line are 'chronic' and 'extremely poor', respectively. 'Chronic' and 'extremely' poor are those households that are below the poverty line all the time during a defined period. Similarly, on the other side, 13 per cent and 21 per cent of total non-poor (above the poverty line) are classified as 'transitory vulnerable' and 'transitory non-poor', respectively.

This portrays an alarming situation, as more and more people are moving from the 'transitory' category to the 'chronic category', courtesy inequitable distribution of income and wealth, monopoly over assets and regressive tax policies.

Ayman Al Zawahari is not wrong when he calls on the poor of Pakistan to start the revolution against this feudal class. They have done precious little during the floods, and most likely siphoned off millions of aid dollars into their overseas slush funds. It is strange how the short term goals of Indian intelligence and Al-Qaeda are similar – mainly overthrow of Pakistan Army and its feudal class. That is where our goals merge and end.

India has spectacularly failed to rally these poor peasants into an insurgency group tackling the rich feudal lords. Islam does not lend itself to Maoist philosophy, however right against wrong through Quran was not exploited. India has seen Maoist insurgencies in swathes of land where this income distribution is at its worst.

Click to read leftist view emanating from within Pakistan

That being said, it is a question of liquidating 1000+ soft targets in Pakistan to bring about social anarchy – much to the glee of Al-Qaeda. Let super powers fret whether Al-Qaeda will be able to exploit this and get their hands on nukes. India should not be worried about this.

Shaking the ground below the US / EU:

As long as the situation remains under the control of Pakistan Army, no Western nation will come to India’s aid to the rot it faces on its western border. Only if the situation appears to slip from the grasp of Pakistan Army will these countries wake up and dust off contingency plans that were prepared a while back. It is India’s duty to bring in social anarchy inside Pakistan without a single missile being fired from this side and to let the West sweat as Pakistan Army loses grip over Pakistan.

The flood would have shown Indian military planners the devastation it can cause to 1/5 of land mass of Pakistan. It knows what non-military vice grip it can hold over Pakistan. Time to open the tap towards social anarchy and leading to liquidation to over 1000+ feudal landlords to be blamed on rising peasant resentment and exploitation.

At the same time, India knows if there is Mumbai 2 – it will have to act, notwithstanding Peter Bergen’s version. But then India will be acting on Pakistan’s time (or even on US time – David Headley was an US asset) . India knows Mumbai 2 will happen – is waiting to happen.

Question is - Do we let another Mumbai 2 happen – assuming the best vigilance can stop 96 out of 100 attempts ( a fairy tale – but even assume this to be true) – 4 will never be detected. But do we wait for this to happen on their time when they are ready?

Integration of PoK:

Or dare I write here, we make Mumbai 2 happen on our time, on our terms. Its so easy to run an operation inside Pakistan against India through contacts inside Afghanistan. Any of the groups will be eager for shahadat. I am willing to extend here and hope that the next Mumbai 2 be known to us – so that we act and achieve a goal. The goal is not to eliminate terrorist camps – but to take over PoK and integrate it with India.

Chinese interest:

However, we must let Chinese interest remain – let the Karakoram highway be there and allow movement of oil & gas into China. The leverage of the road opening will be directly linked to Chinese behaviour on our border. If the Chinese are quiet, the road remains open. But the road will not allow Chinese arms to come to Pakistan – that is clear. It’s a one way energy corridor for China, be it oil or gas grid. But it will pass through Indian Kashmir – and yes token transit costs that can be swapped with Indian tourists going to Kailash Mansarovar.

Iran & Gilgit:

Iran will not have forgotten the brutality with which Pakistan, then under Pervez Musharraf joined hands with Osama bin Laden to kill local Shias of Gilgit and bring in hordes of Sunnis to settle down to have a better ratio skewed towards to Sunnis. India on liberating, PoK must ensure that these Punjabi Sunnis return to their lands in Pakistan and India allows opening of a consular office of Iran in Gilgit. We must return the Zahedan favour.

In one shot, India will have locked China & Pakistan in a game that will be based on equality and based on mutual respect. Paksitan will greatly feel the pinch of all water originating regions falling into India – the Indus water treaty notwithstanding. Climate change can be blamed for man-made disasters too – to keep Pakistan guessing.

If we are able to pull this off, 2020 will see a better neighbourhood that is based on hard geopolitics and leverages.


Anonymous said...

Frankly we should stop worrying about US pressure of what it feels India's movements will do for its Afghanistan policies. I mean who care a f***?

Let Americans take care of their issues, we have our issues to take care of.

India first!!

Jai Hind

Madhav said...

The way events are in progress, India will have to eliminate the Pakistan threat. There is no other alternative.For two reasons:

It will settle once and for all the Chinese plans to deny India it's cordon sanitaire

It will curb adventurism by our other neighbours and check Chinese designs in the Indian Ocean.

The only issue is when is this to be done. The more the delay, the more the likelihood of getting strangled by the Diamond Necklace.

My guess: After the US leaves Afghanistan, the Pakis may get reckless and give us a chance. That would be a chance for India to settle the mess once and for all in it's favour.

Anonymous said...

If India checkmates China in PoK - and re-integrate it into India, there is not much that Pakistan can do.

It is a disputed land, after all. Most importantly it is India's land. We cant let foreign powers sit on our land and dictate policies to us. No self respecting nation can allow that. Specially not India, if it has to show the world it is a rising power.

Knowledgeable One said...

Unorthodox and intelligent out of the box analysis.

Anonymous said...

Anjan da, a post resquest from me. Would like to read your take on the Sunni Islamist Seperatists holding our country to ransom.
Also, if you artenot not on twitter, then please sign up ASAP - pretty engaging debates across the spectrum take place there

Anonymous said...

BuA - I like it that you have a view and go about nailing it. It is a very engaging article and two things that stand out for me - the way you have highlighted post PoK gains. By keeping open Karakoram highway India gives cognizance to Chinese interests and by opening Iranian consulate in Gilgit will stop Sunni interference from Pakistan and S Arabian funded madrassas.

Brilliant. But will India ever have the guts to retake Pakistan occupied Kashmir?

Sid said...

First, ISI deserves more "credit" than we are often prepared to give. Even outside subcontinent it is known as a very ruthless, efficient and capable organization (perhaps the only organization in Pakistan that works!!). Who do you think represent the interests of feudal class? Army and ISI. This army-ISI complex has many faces. One that deals with America and plays it well. Another that deals with Al-Quaeda and keeps it in check. Al-Q knows that after US blocked it's world wide assets it does not have any place other than Pakistani tribal area and ISI plays it well. Another face uses myriads of Islamic orgnaisations and builds up an Islamic force using the anger of the peasant class. Another face creates Jihad against India. All these faces are however controlled by a single brain: a group of generals heading different branches of army and intelligence. These generals always come from feudal class (mostly Panjabi), there does not exist a single instance where peasant class or middle class ever contributed a general. Multiple faces ensure that enemy has no idea which one is the real face. These faces also give the brain an advantage to play all sides - a critical factor for survival. So even when Indian intelligence try to play the anger of the peasant class it can not because the representatives of peasant class (Islamic madrassas and charity organisations) are controlled by feudal classes.
Second, social anarchy is possible only when there is a concept of cohesive society. What Pakistan has is a group of tribal societies. You can play Panjabis against Pashtuns or Balochs against Sindhis. In tribal societies, loyalty to clan has supreme precedence, you just can not go and play Panjabis against Panjabis. The class difference would not cut clan loyalties. Playing one tribal clan against another may be a good idea (i.e. encouraging independent Baloch or Pashtunland). Since main power is concentrated in the hand of Panjabis, reducing Pakistan to west Panjab would only yield limited result.
Third, from China's perspective, Pakistan is infinitely more preferred to India. Pakistan could never grow to challenge China's power and influence. India can and it has such ambition. Do you want a friend that can turn hostile in future or do you have a negotiable but hostile entity but not capable of demanding friendship on the basis of equality in future? Chinese thinking is very hierarchy oriented.
Fourth, Iran's hands are full. It can not care less about Pakistani designs right now. US & UK would be out soon. If democrats loose this coming election in US, president would like to pull out as soon as possible.
India? Who are they?

Anonymous said...

Simply letting and hoping that Pakistan collapses is not enough. Working towards a truncated Pakistan (Punjab only) is the best way to frustrate / ruin China's plans. Tossing the "Gujral doctrine" out the window is a good start.

Jai Hind indeed.

ravinder said...

The earlier Indians attack the better on counts and for everybody involved. That much goes without saying.

Their are however three big problems with your analysis. Please bear with me.

1) The fight can be fought only after the other powers and their interests have been taken cognizance of. That has not been done till date. Remember even in 71 (when India had virtually all the advantages that it does not have now) the Indiraji's team were busy preparing the world and the country for the fight. Right now the Congressis are busy making money in CWG. So that implies that we have to wait for BJP to come in before we can do anything. Congressis are all sold outs. To cut to the chase, most of the war is actually fought before the war.

2) You have shown only half the fight. There is nothing to suggest what Indians should do when the fight gets extended to say beyond the short crisp war that your scenario demands. IMO we should be prepared for an extended war. The manpower for the war is there with all the countries involved.

3) The benefits highlighted are only geo-political and the real existential benefits have simply gotten eclipsed in your analysis. Let me put it like this. If the earlier invaders killed 80 million Indians and converted 170 million into something that lies in the zone of hyphenated patriots to potential traitors to a significant minority of outright traitors........then what do you get when the populations all across have increased say 100 times. We have to be prepared to let go of 10-20-30... million Indian souls if we can keep the likes of Jihadis and Chinese and Evangelists out. The co-existence of India and Pakistan may not be as easy to achieve or even beneficial as is usually held out to be.

Personally I am of the view that if start on the process right now starting with building up a massive covert footprint on the subcontinent with everything inside Pakistan being within our hit range (both overt and covert), then we may not even have to fight the war but if we persist with being a lackey of the US then surely the great Ghazwa will visit us all and the results may not be predictable at all for anybody...

Ritvvij Parrikh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.

Sid, Ravinder, Ritvvij et al - I will reply post Friday - got seriously busy on the work for which I get a salary :)

Anonymous said...

By 2020, if India can maintain the status quo of its territories, rest assured it will be at peace. Pakistan is already in tatters today and the only thing that can happen is that it will go from bad to worse - much of the terrorism will feed on itself, it will engulf Pakistan even more that it does today. ISI has shot itself in the foot and is deep in trouble. China is too insecure a nation to make India its friend, so forget that at least for the next x years. But by 2020, hopefully China will mature as a nation and realize that peace is what it must have with India. It has and is doing a great job in building its economy and hopefully their insecurities will not come in that way. The only thing that India should do is strengthen its army / infrastructure / RSS / supporting institutions. That is all - India's pvt sector is entrepreunial enough to propel India in the big league and we are seeing signs of that anyway.

Anonymous said...

There is a movement within Islam ( and it is coming from the Middle Eastern Countries ) to a more moderate and tolerant Islam. This is of course not present in Pakistan. But even Saudi Arabia will pressurise Pakistan to toe the line of tolerant Islam. Fact of life is Pakistan is doomed big time. But that does not mean India is doomed. High time Hindusim is accepted as a state identity with state support. Just watch re-conversion into Hindusim once this happens. A strong RSS is also required. Beleive me China is a growing threat but it still understands that war is not an option - and Pakistan its dog, is no longer a reliable ally. Let 10 years go and lets see what the population of Muslims in Pakistan become. Ok, its true that all Muslims are not terrorists but all terrorists are Muslims. So Muslims in China will start creating trouble. India's biggest challenge is security and stability. If it can maintain that and also grow our army and infrastructure, trust me in 10 years we will be in a much better position than we are today.

Jai Hind !

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