Saturday, June 6, 2009

IS PAKISTAN DOUBLE DEALING OR IS IT THE US ?

Media in India is shouting through the roof that Pakistan's lie has been nailed. I was wondering which lie - cause they lie as a habit and they never accept if they are caught. It seems the media was going overboard on a Pentagon report.

Pakistan has used a substantial amount of military aid from the US meant to fight terrorism to build up its army with modern weapons and equipment for a conventional warfare against India, Pentagon documents have revealed. This is old news ! Barack Obama during his campaign days stated that Paksitan was preparing for a conventional war with India by misusing funds from US and I distinctly remember Arnab sniggering at this Obama remark.

What does the Pentagon "expose" say.

The Pentagon documents also revealed that a major post-9/11 American defence supply to Pakistan under FMF (Foreign Military Financing) had NOTHING to do with its fight against terrorism.

While the Taliban and al-Qaida gained ground in the tribal areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan, Islamabad bought eight P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and their refurbishment worth $474 million. It also placed orders for 5,250 TOW anti-armour missiles worth $186 million. 2,007 of these have already been delivered and the rest are in the process of being supplied.

Besides buying more than 5,600 military radio sets worth $163 million, Pakistan bought six AN/TPS-77 surveillance radars worth $100 million and six C-130E transport aircraft and their refurbishment worth $76 million. Under the Excess Defence Articles (EDA), it was granted 20 AH-1F Cobra attack helicopters, which were then refurbished, according to the Pentagon documents.

Pakistan also used a substantial chunk of America's FMF to purchase up to 60 mid-life update kits for F-16 A/B combat aircraft valued at $891 million. Of this, it paid $477 million from the FMF funds given by the United States.

Similarly, of the $87 million worth order for 115 M-109 self-propelled howitzers, it paid $53 million from FMF. And all this happened while Pakistan's economic situation deteriorated. (All overseen by Bush Jr)

Islamabad also paid a whopping $1.43 billion to the US to purchase 18 new F-16 combat aircraft and another $629 million for F-16 armaments.

Prominent among these are 500 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles; 1,450 2,000-pound bombs; 500 JDAM tail Kits for gravity bombs and 1,600 Enhanced Paveway laser-guided kits, also for gravity bombs. F-16 has not been delivered to date.

Pakistan also paid $298 million for 100 Harpoon anti-ship missiles; $95 million for 500 sidewinder air-to-air missiles and $80 million for six Phalanx close-in-naval guns.

While the Pentagon notified Congress on the possible transfer to Pakistan of three P-3B aircraft as EDA grants that would be modified to carry the E-2C Hawkeye air-borne early warning suite in a deal worth up to $855 million, this effort has not progressed beyond the notification stage.

Major EDA grants since 2001 include 14 F-16A/B combat aircraft and 39 T-37 military trainer jets.

Under Coalition Support Funds -- part of the Pentagon budget -- Pakistan has received 26 Bell 412 utility helicopters, along with related parts and maintenance, valued at $235 million.

Finally, under 1206 and Frontier Corps Authorities, the United States has provided Pakistan with helicopter spare parts, night vision goggles, radios, body armour, helmets, first aid kits, litters and other individual soldier equipment.

QUESTIONS:

Who gave the funds to Pakistan?
Answer: USA

Which country gave majority of the weapons from these funds to Pakistan?
Answer: USA

Did US not know that these armaments are to fight India and not terrorists?
Answer: Yes, even then US supplied weapons.

So, is it really Pakistan whose lie has been nailed as media is shouting?

Or has US, again played the "Great Game" on India by making its ally on war on terror (Pakistan) reach a convention detente with India?


Have been saying again and again, Great Powers will play the Great Game. By watching from the sidelines, will ensure India forever remains an impotent spectator. However, India does have the wherewithal to change the game for US in the region. A certain division of US has realized this folly, and are pro-India. But economic crisis has restrained Washington's choices and China factor has curtailed many of the better ones for both US & India.

Time for India to stand up and be counted !


On 26th December last year, I wrote this article: SO YOU THINK AMERICA WILL HELP INDIA, WAKE UP !. There were 96 replies, some exceptionally good - do read them too.

35 comments:

Prasun K Sengupta said...

What the PTI report does not say (maybe because the writer was totally inept in taking a holistic approach) is how exactly the amount of annual economic aid doled out by the US after 9/11 enabled Islamabad to divert its own financial resources reqd for procuring a wide range of force-multiplier weapon systems and nuclear reactors from China. Only after all this has been factored in will it be possible to do a comprehensive listing of the quantum of Pakistan's financial resources (both domestic and foreign aid) diverted over the past eight years for India-specific military force modernisation.

Raymond Turney said...

Hi,

My guess is the US actions are the result of internal interests in the US. Who do you think pushed through the support for Pakistan? Believers in Pakistan's cause in Congress {all five of them}? Pakistan's sympathizers in the State Department who are a real but weak lobby? Or US arms manufacturers?

All of them did, but let's face it the arms makers provided most of the bribes and most of the political muscle. So the arms makers got most of the loot, in the form of orders for conventional weapons useful against India.

US arms makers will be happy to sell to India also, of course. But if I were an Indian general, admiral or politician, I'd buy my weapons from Israel instead. Whether their weapons are better than US weapons is debatable, but they are clearly competitive {except in aircraft}. On the other hand, if India decides it has to fight Pakistan, the Israelis won't do much to stop it. So Israel is a more reliable weapon supplier for India.

Many people will complain that US policy is either pro-Pakistan or confused. I'd say US policy is mostly in favor of the short term commercial interests of companies headquartered in the US - the US gives tax breaks to companies moving software development to India, and also buys aircraft and missiles for Pakistan's air force. What unites these two things is that they are profitable for US companies in the short term and highly dubious for the US as a whole in the long term.

What I'm saying is don't overestimate the extent to which US government policy is consistent or thought through. Most US policies are in effect designed by narrow but influential private interests, and are neither coordinated with other US policies nor analyzed for their most likely long term effects.

One should also consider that the US policy to arm Pakistan against India is probably supported by the Chinese. When it wracked up the huge debt to China, the Bush administration ended up owing China a lot of favors. Maybe arming Pakistan is one of them.

But whatever the reasons for the US arms aid to Pakistan, if I were Indian it would tick me off too.

But as usual, I've gone on for a while. People who want more from me can read my blog at:

http://www.rememberjenkinsear.
blogspot.com/

For others, thanks for reading this far.

Ray,

Anonymous said...

Prasun,

I read most of your comments in the link of an earlier article BuA has linked (US will not help) - they were excellent.

And are u saying that from the FMF that Pak recd from US, it diverted funds to buy nuclear reactors from China? Pls clarify.

Ray
===

I have read your site and loved your site and insights. Of course its about US interests and arms conglomerates and all that. But did the US factor in India's concerns? Looks like NOT - the big question is WHY NOT?

Of course Israel will be a better supplier as would be Russia. But both countries are slipping up "badly" on delivery timelines.

Anonymous said...

Comment from (another Anon) in previous post:

"I take issue with this comment:

" Now all one needs - is to send a nuke suitcase to US and detonate it.."

That is just plain wrong, ok."
============================

My comment:

It is not WRONG !

That's the only way US will get a message for trying to screw around with INDIA.

And the best part is that for this job, there are many other countries and their intelligence wings ready to do the job !!

Raymond Turney said...

Hi,

Look. the US elite tends to ignore everyone else - most US citizens, whole nuclear armed countries including both India and Pakistan, probably Gandhi. Mohammed and Jesus Christ combined if they were reincarnated - when not doing so would be very inconvenient.

I don't think you should be too upset. R&AW and the senior people in India's government and army have probably known everything in the PTI report for at least two years. The fact that PTI could use the US legal system to pry evidence out of the US government may be news. The facts probably aren't, if R&AW is even halfway competent. This is not the kind of stuff you can really keep secret you know.

That said, it is appropriate for the Indian government to pretend to be upset. It is appropriate for the Indian government and the Indian-American community to try to prevent further US aid to Pakistan. It is definitely time for the US to figure out a way to have a unified and coordinated policy that both serves US interests and is at least arguably beneficial for the rest of the world.

It is not, I repeat not, anything to detonate atomic bombs over. Even 9/11, which was about ten times as destructive as 11/26, wasn't a reason to detonate an atomic bomb.

Ray,

Anonymous said...

Of course the Indian knew about this. And US were far more provocative in 1971 sending in Destroyer. India cared two hoots at that time, and a far stronger India will care far less even now.

Its just that such news tend to excite the lay people. But its good that lay people too should getting excited about these things - makes India's postures to Pakistan, USA better to pass.

And about the suitcase bomb, there are far better alternatives with far lesser "signatures" to get caught and equally devastating. So, suitcase bomb is not the answer - no need to act like a mad bull for a small bite.

Anonymous said...

A.H.
====

@ BUA -- Pakistan is a mere pawn with 2 masters - US and China. It survives on 2 things - anti-India feeling and Islamic rubbish. And it is slowly going the China way. It is cleverly playing US vs, China card game. And so far quite successfully. After having sucked US as much as it could, it is going to China much to the indignation of US.

@ Raymond Turney -- I completely agree with Raymond Turney. 100%. Israel is something we should look upon more and more.

Russia - We must have a solid contract in place with Russia as an insurance against Chinese belligerence. However we should limit the military outsourcing to them because of their growing incompetence. ( @ Prasun - correct me if I am wrong - I am no weapons expert ). I just go by the various reports in newspapers.

You see we Indians expect US to do justice, have a long term view and all that nonsense. But why the hell we have built up this expectation ? It is precisely this expectation that is the root cause of all our delusions.

US gave us MBA - a structured study into the fine art of management arts. Including marketing and finance. But it also gave unmitigated greed for unimaginable wealth. We had a 1929 stock market crash and now we have a Credit Crisis - both mayhems of immense proportions born out of immense greed of the US. So while the US govt etc seem to be speaking a lot of sense, do they act on them ? They simply dont. Their finance chief ( Head of Fed ) talks damn good sense but their t-bills are financed by China and Japan.

Most likely they act on petty small term selfish interests. And the goddamm US generals are just as corrupt as their Indian counterparts, if not more so. In US, corruption has been legalised. Donations into senator's and various lobby groups are the worst form of organised looting and lobbying the world has ever known.

The problem is people born on or before 1980's in India ( I cannot vouch for all but definitely majority of them ) think of US as something who thinks of the common good and of that common good, the majority share belongs to India - for God know what reason ? Because we are people with good behaviour, we expect people to be fair to us - I really dont know. And without US sanction nothing can move. This kind of thinking has paralysed us for decades.

Anonymous said...

A.H.
====

In short nobody is double dealing - really !! Nobody ! Everyone is following their own agenda and interests. Simple ! We need to understand that agenda and I must congratulate BUA to make a concerted effort to expose those hidden agendas.

It is we Indians, that are living in a self delusional world where we feel that by being goody goody, we will get fair treatment. So why were we shocked at the racial treatment in Australia - we are the most successful expat community across the world, take US or UK or Kenya or Tanzania or Canada or UAE etc. Millions of Indians are repatriating Billions of Dollars back home. But that will surely antagonise people and they will react. Our question should be : how do we fight back ! Not why this is happening !

Who told us that the world is a very fair place with the US being the final arbiter ? Nobody, but we believe it. It was our own stupid thinking that did us in.

So India needs to have an agenda of its own and also a counter strategy to all the threats it is facing. And that agenda should be based on hard facts and realities and not on unfounded assumptions of the goody goody world where you become very successful and expect everyone to clap you. In all probability they will slap you because they think you have taken away their wealth. That is how the world is.

Anonymous said...

So the key question is : Can india play US vs. China game ? If yes, Pakistan is neutralised. For that India needs to play a game where it can take care of both US and Chinese interests. India can gainfully immerse itself into South East Asia through China. But at the same India needs to keep an insurance called Russia and another insurance called Israel should things go wrong.

Anonymous said...

Interesting.. diplomatically outmanouevering pakis will require india to play china vs. US. US takes india for granted - india can make US unhappy by moving closer to China - how? there are various theories. Once that is done India can play hell with pakistan like shutting off the water supply etc. the mullahs will suck their own dicks.

Anonymous said...

If India can befriend China, then 99% problem solved. Pakistan will be a headless chicken surrounded by Iran and Afghanistan, India and non-compassionate China. We must get our borders back with Afghanistan. How ? Do we do a barter with China ? Give up AP in return for no aggression for annexing Bangladesh and POK ? Interesting possibilities open up if one can force to think on befriending China.

Anonymous said...

Yeh. Reliance should open SEZ in China. Maharashtra govt and Supreme court fucked them badly. Nano got kicked out of West Bengal. And Indian railways to move those goods to indian ocean so gwadar becomes useless

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

PART 1

India has excellent analysts and tacticians in think tanks, in the Armed Forces, and in industry. Where India gets stuck is bureaucracy (recently voted the worst in Asia - why am I not surprised?) and by the short sightedness of our politicians either out of sheer ignorance (Gujral doctrines) or vote bank politics or keeping the chair warm till retirement.

All this means, excellent ideas are doomed but can be found in the dusty files in the corridors of powers. Nothing new ought to be done - one needs to open those old files and dust off the lethargy.

To some commentators, let me state this categorically, India cannot play the China vs US game at all. You see you may sit and think the world for India, but the world does not think too much of the Indians and in a way, they are all scared of India.

Let me come to the first part: The Chinese economy is today 1/4 that of the US economy. In 10 years time Yuan will become the reserve currency replacing dollar - the Russians are saying this. OK - the world powers are acknowledging the rise of China, even Warren Buffet is betting on China (over India). China offered to divide the sea lanes of the world to be divided amongst themselves - while the US has refused this - it does not mean that it will not happen in the future. China owns 1/4 of US debt - and they are slowly getting out of long term US debts - and this is causing longer yield bonds to spike up and its now beyond the control of US Federal Reserve. Which means, China has the US by its balls. China has bought up long term oil contracts from Venezuela, to Nigeria to Central Asian Republics. India is still a babe in the woods. It could have blow the US by signing up with Iran for IPI pipeline. But India had to look at Nuclear deal and Israeli armaments. In short, India, by trying to friendly to A,B &C, lost friends all around. It has to take a stand! It has to show muscle which it is now trying belatedly in its neighbourhood. Hence, India simply cannot play the US vs China game - it does not have the money to do so !! However it can create serious problems for both US & China - and this one should know. (More on this later).

On the second part - even then why are they afraid of India. Look at the globe, India is an island (not literally). Surrounded by Himalayas in the north, and dissected by rivers, it is a brilliant piece of cultivable land. No wonder, civilization thrived here when Europe was a jungle. However, much more than land, Indians as a race were mentally very sharp and by criss crossing the continents over the years, they are in positions of power across the globe. Scientists, doctors, engineers, IT entrepreneurs - you will have serious Indian diaspora in every country in the West. That is a serious pool of talent and forms what is known as HUMAN CAPITAL. That makes India a worrisome country to tackle in future. Our internal economy is strong, our rural economy far stronger than China and our banking is far stronger and better than China. All this makes, India an economic competitor to both US & China. And both would like to see India go down economically - not wholly as they would like the market, but not rise substantially to challenge it. As China pours money to its defunct export houses (as exports continue to fall due to global recession), Chinese banks continue to pump good money after bad business and we all know what will happen to that. India, has a much lesser problem in that front.

For both US & China, therefore Pakistan is a brilliant country to use to contain India, to time and again cause some disruption in the business environment in India.

The game is not to play US vs China.

The game is to take away the excuse of US & China to play the game in India.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

PART 2

The game is not to play US vs China.

The game is to take away the excuse of US & China to play the game in India.

The game is to make Pakistan irrelevant. There is no other option.

How to do that - well ?? Leave it to better people to conjure up the scenario. In the meantime, India should smile and continue to do business with US & China.

Pls note: It does not mean US & China are evil. They are doing, as people noted here, what is good for them and their economy. Its time India did the same - forget about appeasing this and that - do what is good for India.

Jai Hind !

Anonymous said...

Why we fight, 12 part series on youtube.....Relevant to this forum.

First part link::

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xm1B7x5JZfE&feature=related

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

To Anon @ June 6, 2009 7:55 PM:

Nuke suitcase or other forms of WMD attack on US is not the answer. I will have to agree with other commentators that US needs to be tackled intelligently and not by brawn. It is a declining power. Many of its defunct or bankrupt companies make a sizeable profit in the Indian sub-continent.

One example: American Express Bank and its TRS (Travel Related Services) division. They make over 70% of their global profits from this region.

Try to see what hurt the Americans - its money more than bombs !! Be smart and not do things when angry :).

marty said...

Pakistan knows it is being wooed by both US & China. Actually while the US may be loathe to do business with Pakistan, if it does not do so, it will ensure that Pakistan lands in the lap of the Chinese. A far worse outcome for US.

And India has been asked not to spoil that important relationship. For India, Pakistan under US umbrella is a far better outcome than Pakistan under a Chinese umbrella.

Liked BuA's assessment - Make Pakistan irrelevant as a land mass and these competing superpowers (US & China) will have lost the will to play their games.

The game may move to a FREE Balochistan - in which case US is a 100% winner and China a 100% loser.

Anonymous said...

Make Pakistan irrelevant - fine ! Then what. What is clear is that Pakistan is just a tool. Not the end. The idea is to destabilise India by US and China by using Pakistan.. right ? By making Pakistan irrelevant, you just take away a tool. Then what ?

Anonymous said...

I agree with BuA and Marty here. But i have a feeling that we have lost that opportunity. We no longer have that strong a case anymore to push through. Sooner or later, Af-Pak is going to Ap-Fak for Unc Sam and that is when he'd comrpomise to the hilt with all and sundry (The Talib's, The Army, The ISI... etc etc.)

We have lost an opportunity and we are not a nation which builds them. Balochistan is the only opportunity it has to settle all miseries, the K's (Kashmir and Khalistan) for once and for ever.

TTV India

Anonymous said...

Let us assume for a moment that Beloochistan or Baluchistan is freed from Pakistan. Great for US - its pipeline comes through without much hassle - or does it ? There is still a restive Afghanistan to deal with. It immediately loses interest in playing the Paki card on India at least. Or does it ? It will loose interest in Pakistan for sure. But China will not. I dont see any difference if Baluchistan is made free - from India's perspective. I really do not see any difference in US or Chinese approach towards India if Baluchistan is freed. Except thumbing up Pakistan, what do we really gain ? A bunch of angry Islamic Punjabis ? Who are anyway angry at India for removing Bangladesh from their territory. And today they want to take away Kashmir and cause unrest in India because they have not forgotten and will never forget what we did to them in 1971 and previously when we took away Kashmir in the first war ?

Anonymous said...

Its a minus sum game for US to ever allow the breakup of Pakistan.It will have to deal with an unknown govt then. Now they know whom they have to deal with - an indebted Pakistan who will ensure that US's oil and gas pipelines are fine and that the India-Pakistan-Iran pipeline never come through. China will also not want this to happen - they have more to loose. Pakistan will not give up Baluchistan - and who will force them to ? India ! Laughable. So the liberation of Baluchistan is a pipe dream.

Anonymous said...

The only way out - the way I see it, is for India to deal with and ensure US and Chinese interests in the region. And it will take a leader of much stronger calibre than Manmohan Singh to achieve that.Today a broken India - lets say India is broken into 10 countries is what will suit US and China very well. Not a broken Pakistan. However having said this, it is not so easy to break India into 10 countries except through religious divides. India, unknown to many, has withstood invasion after invasion including the Hun invasion ( maybe thanks to Himalayas and all that but let us not belittle ourselves for that ) much more successfully than the mighty Roman Empire. The religious invasion is what divided us. We were as divided as any other nation including the Islamic nations themsleves - so let us not repeat that we are divided as a nation. Look anywhere - people are as divided, if not more.

Breaking up Pakistan may give us gooes bumps but what will ensure peace is ensuring the interests of the bigger nations - China & US. Till such time we are able to tackle them. Then we can say - go to hell. Till then we have to paly it smartly.

Anonymous said...

The way the world energy reserves are being cornered by US and China, nobody wants India to join the party. Everyone will want India to be as far away from the spoils as possible - meaning mainly US and China. If that means Kashmir going to Pakistan, then US will be quite ok with it. So any intention of India to take its borders as far as Afghanistan will be met with huge force from both China and US. Quite an interesting piece of tangle we are in !

Anonymous said...

Article 370 stays as is. US wants it to stay. Hindus ( read Indians ) not allowed into Kashmir anymore, except for one or two pilgrimages. Muslims have 100% access right and they all want to accede to pakistan. India to recede further from the spoils of the century.

The pieces are falling into place.

Raymond Turney said...

Hi,

This is interesting, but I think it considerably overestimates the coherence of US strategy. So let's review how things look here in the US:

Some people want to make a loose alliance with China and support Pakistan. These people gain a lot of strength from the fact that US policy has traditionally supported Pakistan, and even more from the fact that the orthodox view is that the US cannot afford to tick off China right now.

Some people want to make an alliance with India to contain China. To the extent that the Chinese are aware of this, this probably actually weakens India's position, because the Chinese will do what is necessary to veto it. On the other hand, a lot of people in the US want to contain China. So this may be an angle that India can exploit.

US arms manufacturers want to sell to both India and Pakistan. They're interested in things like keeping their factories running and their stock prices high, and not much else. Many people in the arms industry are probably in the faction that wants to make an alliance with India to contain China - and most of them probably haven't realized that as long as the US is arming Pakistan, India probably won't be rushing to make an alliance with the US. The arms industry is supported by balance of trade guys, who are convinced that arms are a strongly desired US export. Also, with the US economy in a mess right now, much of the US feels that anything which provides employment for US workers is good, which means they're for selling weapons to both India and Pakistan {and Israel and Egypt, etc}.

A lot of people in the US are convinced that we're in a vaguely religious war against Muslims who think the US is bad. They're concerned that we might be losing in Afghanistan and they tend to favor buying off Pakistan. Most of these people are unaware that Pakistan's government thinks the Taliban has a case in Afghanistan and also that every member of the Taliban who goes to Afghanistan and is killed by the US is one less member of the Taliban fighting to overthrow the government of Pakistan.

The US military, and particularly the army, is looking for a way to get out of the wars the Bush administration got us into, without giving AQ a chance to detonate an atomic bomb somewhere in the US. This problem is non-trivial, to say the least. We keep telling ourselves that the US government has effective control of Pakistan's nukes, but we're not sure how much we believe it. Also, if Pakistan is taken over by hard-line Islamists they will have both the army and the nukes. For this reason, plus the tendency to inertia, the US military tends to support Pakistan.

There is a small but well organized Indian-American lobby. These people are mostly associated with the BJP in India and are fairly well off over here. They consciously model their lobbying efforts on AIPAC, the mostly Jewish lobby that supports Israel.

This mess is very hard to simplify. It is not clear who will win any given battle. That said, the arms industry is the strongest player and has the clearest objective. So you have to figure that it will probably push supplying weapons to Pakistan through. If course, since they also want to supply India, probably more than they want to arm Pakistan {there's more money in India}, they could probably be squeezed and bought off. But if you buy US weapons, you will then be exposed to the vagaries of the other groups affecting US Pakistan policy. On balance, if I were running India in a war game, I wouldn't buy US weapons.

Raymond Turney said...

Hi,

The above lengthy comment raises the issue of how to respond. I have some idea to offer:

If I were playing India in a war game, I would favor building up the Indian-American lobby and making an example of a couple of politicians who too strongly favor Pakistan. Once the Indian American lobby is as feared in US political circles as AIPAC, US support for Pakistan would decline sharply.

I would also see if I could lean on US weapon suppliers, buy small quantities of weapons, etc. The idea here is to avoid making India's forces dependent on US weapons, but to make it look like there is a good enough chance that India will buy US weapons to moderate enthusiasm for Pakistan in the arms industry. You never know, India's weapon requirements are so great that US arms companies might even force the US government to switch sides. If that happens, it might even make sense to buy US arms.

I would start talking with the Chinese about border issues. This would do three things: reduce Chinese anxiety about the effect of India's rise on India's border issues with China; inform the people in the US who want to make an alliance with India against China that the US had better be willing to make a better offer than China does, and give the Chinese a chance to wonder whether the Taliban will help the Uighur against China. It might even cause the Pakistanis to wonder if China is thinking about switching sides. Also, you never know, China may make a good enough offer that it is worth India's while to accept it.

I would pick one medium sized subsidiary of a US company that sold weapons to Pakistan, and launch a boycott of it in India. Of course, this assumes there is such a thing, but I'd guess that some US multinational is both supplying arms to Pakistan and selling something else in India. This boycott would both mobilize support in India and cause a lot of senior managers in the other US multinationals to wonder what might happen if they pissed off India.

Finally, I would get ready for all hell to break loose in Pakistan. Ahmed Rashid is always thinking that all hell is about to break loose in Pakistan, maybe he will be right for once. My cynical inclinations lead me to think that the intense US interest in Pakistan is more likely to destabilize Pakistan than improve the situation.

In short, there are a number of things that Indians can do to pressure the divided US elite to adopt a more pro-Indian position. Why not do them, rather than fantasizing about atomic bombs? After all, killing a lot of people sounds attractive when you are very frustrated, but it seldom gets what you want.

Ray,

Anonymous said...

We have a problem with thinking that China is a monster that cannot be dealt with. And so we run here and there or simply bury our head in statistics. It is same like Pakistan's approach to India today - Pakistan was bashed by India and India was bashed by China. We carry the wrong notions. It is good sense to try and win over China. That will solve 99% of all problems if we can make peace with that country.

Anonymous said...

if u can't lick them - join them. It will be easier to make friends with China because of lack of religious divide - unlike Pakistan where the religious divide will pop up every now and then. Its just that the mistrust is extremely deep but not something that cannot be dealt with.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

There has been a medical emergency in the family, hence I might not be able to reply to all for a few days.

However, it might be important to read an earlier article I wrote:

TIME TO TEACH CHINA A LESSON

http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2008/11/time-to-teach-china-lesson.html

Anonymous said...

Hi BuA,

Liked your Part1 , Part 2 analysis, the China vs India economy and the idea of making Pakistan irrelevant - though how? .

The Raymond Turney assesment on the US motivations being totally short term and commercial makes for a perfectly logical analysis.

SM

Kannan,India said...

Pak is like an anti-matter to India(matter). There is no way to reconcile with them. Same for Israel with Arabs(& Arabs vs US).Its about cultural and identity inferiority complex and less about land issues.I think Obama know all this Muslim inferiority complex but wants to avoid a possible 9/11 with a-bomb, so that he can get another term in the office.The Cairo speech shows that desperation against the inevitable another 9/11 when madrassahs in Saudi Arabia,Pakistan & other nut countries are churning out millions of military age "good-for-nothing-productive" brainwashed youth including from madrassahs India and Bangladesh. I think as soon as we get the required numbers of artillery and close-support air-assets in place for our pro-active strategy(cold-start)..we gotta go for smack-down Pakistan.China is a long-term problem but they will not be stupid to invade us..if we have enough counter-attack assets in place which we are slowing moving to its border.I think China will play the waiting game..to become super power and then come to kick our ass and Taiwan's..:-) But in 2-4 years we will be able to built up enough firepower to change their mind.

Kannan,India said...

The Achilles heel of China is free flow of information.The only weapon we can beat with them is information.They are desperately building billion-dollar firewall capabilities and hardware based filters to keep inconvenient information out of public view. The best way for us is to exploit vulnerabilities in their firewall and host proxy servers, proxy email-relays like TOR and decentralised censorship evading peer-2-peer networks like Freenet..so that Chinese/Tibetans people can know what the hell is going on.I think we must also immediately train Tibetan youth Congress workers in different parts of the world in anonymous communications..much like what Al-Qaeda media wing is doing but better.A democratically elected China will be our biggest ally. No need to fight it. Coz our real enemy is not Chinese people but fascist-Oligarchic Communist Party apparatus and PLA leadership.

Anonymous said...

@ Kanan...

Nice reading your comment. Something which we are good at. Play to our strengths. Exactly what we are never doing.

TTV Inda

Anonymous said...

@Kannan

Thats one solid piece of information we should be working one.

Great one dude !!

Anonymous said...

I am reading this article second time today, you have to be more careful with content leakers. If I will fount it again I will send you a link