Tuesday, October 20, 2009

INDIA'S NUCLEAR STRATEGY BUILT ON A LIE



This article is written by Dr PK Iyengar, former Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Chairman.


POKHRAN II

The article by Dr. Iyengar:

Recent revelations by K Santhanam, who was the field director during Pokhran-II, have again brought into focus doubts regarding the thermonuclear test of May 11, 1998. Thermonuclear weapons are crucial to a credible deterrent because they are much lighter than fission weapons and therefore more suitable for deployment on missiles. Thus, fission weapons are sufficient only if your deterrence is restricted to targets located close to you. By contrast, thermonuclear weapons are not only lighter but also have explosive powers ranging from tens of kilotons to megatons, all coming largely from Lithium (Li) which is much cheaper than plutonium used in the fission process. True, a thermonuclear explosion has as its trigger a fission device, but here the quantity of plutonium required is much smaller than in a purely fission weapon of comparable yield.

The basic design of nuclear devices must be validated through underground explosions before weaponising them, underlining the necessity of being absolutely sure that the test carried out is beyond any doubt. Therefore, considering the doubts over the Pokhran-II tests, what’s at stake is the credibility of our nuclear deterrence and, even more importantly, of our strategic decision-making process. No one understands this better than the armed forces, who will be the users of these weapons. Since it’s they who are responsible for national security, they must be convinced about the success of our nuclear tests and our nuclear deterrence — not politicians or bureaucrats. By all accounts, they don’t seem to be in the loop.

A mismatch in yield

At a press conference on September 24, 2009, principal scientific advisor to the government R Chidambaram and chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Anil Kakodkar sought to address the ‘doubts’ raised by Santhanam about the efficacy of the thermonuclear (TN) test. Were their clarifications adequate?

First, the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) claims that the combined yield of the fission and TN devices tested simultaneously was around 57 kilotons (kt). Santhanam, in charge of the measurements at site, claims that the S2 (Shaft-2) site in which the fission device was detonated gave a yield of 25 kt and the TN device in S1 gave much less. International seismologists, with rich experience in operating sophisticated seismic array, all converge on a total yield not greater than 30 kt. The DAE claims that the fission device yielded 12 kt and the TN device 45 kt. It isn’t scientifically possible to reconcile these two claims even though the then NSA convened a meeting to resolve this issue.

Santhanam’s revelations confirm that the fission device created, as expected, a crater, similar to that of Pokhran-I. It’s clear that the shock intensity reaching the ground in the S1 shaft was certainly weaker and was due to the much lesser yield of the TN device compared to what is claimed. Video recording of the ground motion could confirm the poorer up-thrust of ground, but neither the DAE nor the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has released this for the public.

Second, the tele-seismic recordings and their analysis from a large number of stations can’t be ignored. They had reported eight kt for Pokhran-I, which was conducted in 1974, and was close to our own measurements. It’s erroneous to argue that minor variations in the site geology of the 1998 tests could lower the signals to account for reduced yield by as much as half (the DAE’s 57 kt as against the 30 kt of others.)

Third, one of the DAE’s estimates was made on the basis of a comparative study, giving the yield of Pokhran-II relative to that of Pokhran-I. The rationale for this is that since the location was almost the same, many of the uncertainties regarding the soil composition etc, can be removed by such a calculation. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) calculated that the Pokhran-II yield was 4.45 times the Pokhran-I yield. (Others estimated it to be only two to three times.) Taking the Pokhran-I yield as close to eight kt, as I know it as its project head, the total yield of Pokhran-II works to only 36 kt, leaving only 24 kt for the TN device (since the DAE claims 12 KT for the fission test). This is closer to international evaluation, though slightly higher.

Fourth, the DAE concedes that the TN device consisted of a boosted-fission trigger and the secondary fusion core. There was also probably a fission ‘spark-plug’ in the core of the TN device (and I say this because this would be a sensible, conservative design for a first TN device; in which case some energy would come from it too. But this hasn’t been revealed). So, part of the TN yield would have come from the boosted-fission trigger and part from the fusion burn. In 2000, I had liberally estimated this ratio to be 1:1. This was later agreed to by S K Sikka as well, who was the scientific head of the BARC design team. With this number for the thermonuclear burn — 12 kt (the other 12 kt coming from the fission trigger in that 1:1 ratio) — I have calculated that only around 250 gm of the LiD (Lithium-6 Deuteride) fusion material would have burnt. I know for sure the BARC has the means to make highly enriched Li-6 from 1970. This amount of LiD translates to a core size of around four centimetre in radius, which is too small for a realistic size of LiD core. It’s more likely that around two kilograms of LiD (eight centimetre radius) was used, in which case the burn efficiency would be around 10 per cent. The shape of the core could have been different from spherical.

Fifth, the DAE has quoted the radiochemical method as an accurate method of estimating the yield. However, it depends upon where the sample came from, and the methodology used. In the un-reviewed paper by BARC published in the BARC Newsletter, where even scales are not marked on the graphs, they have claimed 50 kt as the yield (for the TN device), with an error of ± 10 kt. This error range clearly shows that the methodology is suspect. In the case of atmospheric explosions one could pick the samples from the very centre of the device and thus be more accurate. For the fusion device, one has to rely on activity produced by fusion neutrons. This is difficult because a good part of the fission neutron spectrum also produces the same radioactive isotopes, thus complicating the problem. BARC scientists themselves agree that there are uncertainties regarding the volume of the disturbed zone which is assumed and not measured, thus resulting in an error of ± 20 per cent. I have therefore very little faith in this radio-chemical analysis, a view which is corroborated by senior retired radio-chemists.

Immediate response required

For the same amount of energy release there would be 12 times more fusion than fission events. The fission product Ce144 (Cerium-144) is a small fraction of the fission fragments. The fast fission neutrons and the 14 MeV (million electronic volts) fusion neutrons both produce Mn54 (Manganese 54). Therefore the ratio of Mn54 to Ce144 does not necessarily prove that fusion has occurred in excess of fission. The gamma ray spectrum does not prove anything. It only shows that the detector has good resolution irrespective of how the Mn54 was produced.

There are other questions to be asked. For example, what was the depth at which the devices were placed? After Pokhran-I, we immediately declared the depth to be 107 m, since this had nothing to do with the design of the device. Why is that information about Pokhran-II being kept secret? Secondly, were any measurements made of tritium concentration at the site? If the boosted-fission trigger worked, then the lithium in the LiD would have been converted to tritium by the neutrons. If the fusion worked as designed, the tritium would have fused with the deuterium and formed He-4 (helium-4). Therefore, a large tritium concentration left behind would suggest that the fission trigger worked, but the fusion part is suspect.

These grave doubts about the efficacy of the TN device should be cleared before any attempt at weaponisation. It’s imperative that the government responds to this crisis immediately, with a detailed, if necessary confidential, review by knowledgeable experts. It’s said the AEC has already conducted this review. While the AEC comprises very distinguished bureaucrats and scientists, I’m sure that none of them, except Kakodkar, would call himself an expert on nuclear devices or even nuclear physics. Others argue that it’d be unwise to rake up the issue now, embarrassing as it is for India. Isn’t it worse to build a nuclear strategy on foundations that are suspect?

The Pokhran-II controversy also raises issues about the nature of our policy-making. Plurality of opinions and inputs is essential to the democratic process and for correctly assessing situations and taking right decisions. This ethos is present in most areas; that’s why we are a nation of committees! But when it comes to strategic matters, particularly in scientific matters, there’s a deplorable tendency, in the name of secrecy, to listen to only one opinion. Earlier statements of Brajesh Mishra and even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh only reinforce this impression. The problem is exacerbated by the growing interference of politicians in scientific matters, and perhaps by the growing politicisation of science and scientists. Consequently, you have an impenetrable nexus, which makes scientific decision-making impossible.

Before Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared India as a nuclear weapon power, and announced no first-use and unilateral moratorium, he and his advisors should have satisfied themselves by referring to experts and not gone entirely by the claims of the two scientists, Chidambaram and A P J Abdul Kalam — particularly after the DRDO raised doubts. Instead, those doubts were buried without being given a scientific hearing. The government also seems to have used those two scientists to influence the approval of Opposition leaders to sign the CTBT.

Decisions on nuclear policies

Weapons design and testing is a specialised field, but it isn’t an exclusive club. Much of the information is nowadays available openly, in books and on the Internet. Also, there exists sufficient expertise within the county to do a genuine peer-review of the thermonuclear test, which will be in the nation’s best interest.

In the broader policy-making context, I propose that the government should immediately form a special, advisory group of experts outside of the administration, and therefore uninfluenced by government, but having a central advisory role in decision-making in sensitive, strategic areas — like the JASON committee in the US. Of course, it’d be easy for the government to constitute this group in a manner that serves its own purposes, but it should realise that it is in the nation’s, and therefore ultimately in the government’s, best interests that such a group is genuinely expert, independent, and unafraid. Governments should realise that though they may have strong political compulsions to act in one manner or another, when it comes to science and technology, individual opinions and diktats don’t matter, and only objectivity and an open-minded approach can find the best way forward for the country. I can foresee that in the near future the government may have to take decisions on nuclear policies which will have grave consequences for India’s future.
==============================================

Kanson, a reader left this comment which I found interesting enough to upload in the main page. Kanson wrote and I quote:

PKI (PK Iyengar) was told indirectly several times that his contention of 1:1 ratio has no substance. He was proved wrong serveral times on the POK-I yield value.

He doesnt seems to show his understanding through his articles that there is no way one can get 100% effeciency for fusion and keeps harping the same thing repeatedly. Here, he goes on to say 250 gms of LiD is needed to get 12 kt which occupies a sphere of 4 cm radius and it is too small - indicating he is expecting 100% fusion burn from this.

From open source lit., max effeciency for fusion fuel in TN dev configuration is stated as 50%. Indeed as he claims, if there is a burn of only 250 gms then for 50% effeciency of that burn the amount of LiD needed is 500 gms. The resulting radius of sphere for 500 gms fuel is ~ 5 cm. If the effeciency is only 25%, possible as this is the first TN device tested, radius comes around to 6.4 cm. How the radius of 6.4 cm is too small for a realistic size of LiD core compared to 8 cm radius as he claims ? As i said before, he doesnt seems to show any understanding on this front. Dont he have to be realistic ? Which systems gives a 100% effeciency ?

While he talk so much on the Thermonuclear design, it is ironic that he devotes no space, so far, to talk on the claim of 25 kt yield for S2 which is based on POK-I to which he was the project leader. But here he adequately compensates for the that loss. He indirectly disproves the 25 kt claim of K.Santhanam and prefers to assign 12 kt yield to S2 than 25 kt. In a round about fashion he choose a total yield (S1+S2) of 30/36 kt and then deduce 12 kt for S2. Why cant he say clearly 25 kt is wrong ? S2 device tested is a weapon manufactured during his tenure in DAE. While he talks so much about the intricate details of TN device, does he tries to say he dont know the yeild of S2 ? He comes as more pathetic in this case.

It is frustrating to see PKI goes on like this. Enough said!

- Kanson

====================================================

BuA - To be fair, I forwarded Kanson's reply to PKI (PK Iyengar) who chose not to reply. I should state this here on record.

66 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its more than Dalai Lama's visit to Tawang that is tingling the Chinese. Its the knowledge that India has no minimum credible nuclear deterrence against the Chinese.

For Indians it will always be Nuclear = Not Clear !!

Prasun K Sengupta said...

The thermonuclear warhead issue will come under greater critical scrutiny once the home-grown MIRV technologies for ballistic missiles begin evolving. With existing unitary fission-based warheads on board IRBMs and MRBMs the weight factor isn't worrying at all, but with the introduction of MIRV-based warheads, the thermonuclear warhead reqmt will be of paramount importance. Also to be factored in is the SFC's desire to make the majority of the nuclear arsenal 'survivable' for a retaliatory strike. That being the case the bulk of the MIRVs will have to go on board the projected SLBMs. While some like RADM (ret'd) Raja Menon have elaborated more on this issue, the great majority seem to have, for the moment, a semblance of misguided self-assurance based on the proven success of the fission-based n-devices.

Anonymous said...

Prasun,

Could not agree more with u on this one! So what are India's options - another round of Buddha smiling.

And if yes - does Indian quickly sign CTBT and NPT to avoid sanctions?

Kanson said...

PKI was told indirectly several times that his contention of 1:1 ratio has no substance. He was proved wrong serveral times on the POK-I yield value.

He doesnt seems to show his understanding through his articles that there is no way one can get 100% effeciency for fusion and keeps harping the same thing repeatedly. Here, he goes on to say 250 gms of LiD is needed to get 12 kt which occupies a sphere of 4 cm radius and it is too small - indicating he is expecting 100% fusion burn from this.

From open source lit., max effeciency for fusion fuel in TN dev configuration is stated as 50%. Indeed as he claims, if there is a burn of only 250 gms then for 50% effeciency of that burn the amount of LiD needed is 500 gms. The resulting radius of sphere for 500 gms fuel is ~ 5 cm. If the effeciency is only 25%, possible as this is the first TN device tested, radius comes around to 6.4 cm. How the radius of 6.4 cm is too small for a realistic size of LiD core compared to 8 cm radius as he claims ? As i said before, he doesnt seems to show any understanding on this front. Dont he have to be realistic ? Which systems gives a 100% effeciency ?

While he talk so much on the Thermonuclear design, it is ironic that he devotes no space, so far, to talk on the claim of 25 kt yield for S2 which is based on POK-I to which he was the project leader. But here he adequately compensates for the that loss. He indirectly disproves the 25 kt claim of K.Santhanam and prefers to assign 12 kt yield to S2 than 25 kt. In a round about fashion he choose a total yield (S1+S2) of 30/36 kt and then deduce 12 kt for S2. Why cant he say clearly 25 kt is wrong ? S2 device tested is a weapon manufactured during his tenure in DAE. While he talks so much about the intricate details of TN device, does he tries to say he dont know the yeild of S2 ? He comes as more pathetic in this case.

It is frustrating to see PKI goes on like this. Enough said!

- Kanson

Kanson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kanson said...

If PKI cant get this understanding, it is not hard to guess why R. Chidambaram shows no willingness to clarify his doubts.

Anonymous said...

Kanson - intrigued by your answers .... are you with Indian nuclear energy task force? If so, why dont you tell us your "informed guess" about whether India actually possesses the Thermonuke or not?

And BuA - get PKIs counter view to Kanson's

Anonymous said...

I think Kanson is R Chidambaram, or certainly a close associate.

Anonymous said...

To Anon above - u r bonkers !!

Prasun K Sengupta said...

To Anon@1:45AM: At least two more underground tests for thermonuclear weapons need to be conducted to verify beyond reasonable doubt the robustness and reliability of the weaponised device. But I don't see any mounting pressure on India in the near future to sign the CTBT and certainly not the NPT as no UN-sponsored sanctions are likely to folow in the event of India's abstenance. Even if India inks the CTBT there's a cluase within the treaty which states that any signatory can withdraw from the treaty anytime and resume conducting nuclear weapon tests for as long as it is in the concerned country's supreme national interest. Inking the NPT is, however, out of the question for the moment as both the US and China are insisting that India come on board as a non-nuclear weapons state, something no one in India will agree to.

Anonymous said...

NPT as a non nuclear state - are the US / CHINA off their rockers ???

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