This is a provocative and an out of the box idea. I have my own ideas but I wish this post to be a bit different. I want readers to write for it or against it, giving their own ideas.
Let me write a few points for it:
1. UK has its Islamic terrorists - Hizbut Tahrir headquartered in UK to create mayhem in Central Asia and then some in Afghanistan for their Great Game.
2. USA used Osama bin Laden and mujahiddeen to oust the Russians
3. Pakistan is routinely used by US, UK and China and Pakistan happily sells its mother to the highest bidder
4. Al Qaeda is ideologically linked and not prone to bribes. It is against the infidel Pakistan army elements those who side with the "kafir" Americans.
5. Al Qaeda was never against India - it was sold Kashmir by Pakistan for it to get safe haven in Af-Pak. If India helps Al Qaeda in its fight against Pakistan Army, Kashmir and India will not be in their agenda.
6. Al Qaeda desperately wants India to attack Pakistan so that they are able to use the cracks to come close to nuclear arsenals and power. It already has mass support in lower cadres of the Islamist Pakistan Army and few supporters even in the top echeleons.
7. India tells Al Qaeda, war is a messy affair - we will help you get what you want from sabotage from inside.
8. This will surely ring alarm bells in Israel and US and we can expect them to clean the shit as they are expecting India to clean the shit after US leaves Afghanistan to the mercy of the Taliban. (This time though, its not going to be that easy).
Your comments - ladies and gentlemen :)
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POST COMMENTS:
I think the debate has been v healthy. I will say that it has been good to throw such a provocative idea around.
However, it is just an idea and it is not very practical in the long term perspective.
Yes, there are points which are weak within the LeT to Al-Qaeda system that can be exploited, which I am very sure is being exploited.
However, where India can do much more, is Baloch movement. I really dont think much happening there in military terms!! Time to seriously up the ante :)
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36 comments:
may i say......
very cunning and tempting idea.
ha ha ha ha
an excellent idea. why not give it a try - nothing to lose
wel.. from ur writing these days its hard to believe its the same writer 6 months back! going aggressive..! assassinate hafeez and now get along with terrorists!
but I believe we need to take a long term view of the things if not we might be axing our own foot.. best example'd be US wrt to Al-Qaeda!
Prabhav,
We always take a long term view. We have committees and desks to look at the threat perception. Then there are oversight committees to look upon these too. Then there are expert committees and finally political oversight.
We come up with excellent strategies and not great ones too. In the end, these ideas rot in the files of some IAS officer or at RAW / MI desk.
Coz no one had the guts to do anything about it.
Hence Prabav, we are excellent at taking long term view and SIT ON THEM. Instead we should act, let things fall and let chaos theory take over.
Remember even the mad man knows how to cross the busy street and not get killed :). And Al Qaeda is a rational player.
BuA
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Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said: "If Hizballah attacks, Israel will go after its sponsors."
And if LeT attacks India, we go to S Arabia for mediation.
What the f***
After the LeT strike in Kabul, India is scaling down its ops in Afghanistan.
Advantage Pakistan.
Probably a wise short term move.
I have seen plenty of piggoos full of hatred who just love to talk rubbish and abuse to satisfy their ego and hatred but first time I am seeing an idiot piggoo...this combination is dangerous. idiocy and piggoo character....
take your medicine it is required.
As an out of the box idea it is clearly meant to provoke a reaction.
To the anon above, you should be like Prabhav who wrote earlier, with his thoughts. You are not exactly holding any degree in critiquing for the sake of critiquing. Come back with some solid points and critique.
I know some of the points are weak - but so what - they were deliberately put.
When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible but in the end, they always fall - Think of it, ALWAYS.
M K Gandhi.
Time to go back to the school, boys!
P.S-I'm not tat huge a Gandhian but I believe, a few of his thoughts are timeless.
@Prabhav above:
One Gandhi gem to Chiang Kai Shek when the communists were gaining ground - "When they come to hit you, turn the other cheek. This will shame the communists so much that they will retreat".
Chiang Kai Shek looked at that old man in disbelief. Not that much changed. But please Gandhi's love is overblown as India did not want to honor the real hero - Subhash Ch Bose.
If you want I can write many boo - boos of Gandhi.
For all those who did not get the point...LET ME REITERATE..
There have been TYRANTS and murderers and for a time they SEEM INVINCIBLE but in the END, they always FALL - Think of it, ALWAYS.
and by tyrants I meant--[frm Wiki] tyrant carries connotations of a harsh and cruel ruler who places his or her own interests or the interests of a small oligarchy over the best interests of the general population..
MAHATMA GANDHI: How MK Gandhi transformed from a “recruiting sergeant” for the British during WW1 to “Mahatma” is engaging reading. However it is his use of non-violence as an all weather solution for all aggression that was ridiculed.
With Japanese invasion imminent in July 1940, Gandhi championed a policy of “non-violent defense” of the sub-continent which, according to him, required that Indians ‘calmly’ allow themselves to be butchered until such time as the “aggressor” gets mentally and even physically tired of killing non-violent resisters, whereupon the Japanese, presumably disgusted with themselves, would withdraw.
To the British whose backs were pushed to the wall, in 1940, Gandhi appealed: “.. to accept the method of non-violence and to fight Nazism without arms”, which involved, he wrote “inviting Herr Hitler and Signor Mussolini to take what they want.” Gandhi continued, “Let them take your possession of your beautiful island, you give it, but you will give neither your souls, nor your minds.”
To Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, in his meeting with Gandhi in Kolkata (Calcutta) in Feb 1942, Gandhi advised: “You will allow yourself to be slaughtered, but you will refuse to owe allegiance to them”.
YEAH, RIGHT !!!!
Understandably Churchill went into an apoplectic fit and Chiang Kai-shek dismissed it airily as being irrelevant for China.
Probably Gandhi got his first lesson when he was hounded out of “Grand Hotel” by Islamists in Kolkata whilst giving his speech there, post India’s independence. He muttered publicly then, that non-violence will probably fail against illiberal regimes. It was too late for Gandhi – he was killed by right wing Hindu groups for giving away Akhand Bharat (undivided India).
and BTW this is not a forum for personal disputes.. lets not make it personal.. my point was for the AUTHOR and HIS view point which seemed to have changed al of a sudden from descriptive to provocative .. and the author I believe has taken in the way it'd to.. if U got any point just make it to the author.. Neither me or U should indulge in 'samaj sewa' of changing the individual perceptions.
BuA,
For the first few points, I was surprised. But I seriously disagree that Al-Q has nothing to do with us. It may consider US/Israel as the primary enemy but if primary enemy goes down, it would consider to take down the others.
Al-Q is a global terror enterprise headquartered in NWFP. To continue it's revenue stream, it needs fighters. Apparently, it's C-level executives and board members (the Saudi clan) does not want their own to die, so they need to hire lesser Muslims (like Yemenis, Ujbeks, Lebanese, Bangaladesis and Pakis) as the fighter for their Arabian speaking God. The surviving fighters always need projects to work on, so a continuous supply of enemies of Islam is necessary. So, even if USA/Israel goes down, they will invent newer ones.
As Rajiv Gandhi's LTTE misadventures would tell you, using insurgencies to promote unrest in another country may not be a good idea in long term. In short term, it may yield tactical benifit, but the benifit would be taken away by long term strategic liability. USA and Pakis are getting an idea about it now-a-days.
@Prabhav,
George Orwell, author of 1984, pointed out that Gandhian philosophy of "appealing to conscience" would only work against an oppressor that has "people of conscience" in it's government. If Hitler was the oppressor of India, would he mind eliminating Gandhi and his few thousands close followers? That man never showed any hesitation in sending millions of Jews and other minority groups like gypsies to gas chamber. Food for thought.
The triumph of "love and truth" is a fantasy that works well in poetry and party manifesto, but a cursory study of history would give you the impression that "might is always right".
wel I never said apply the Gandhian philosophy at the present moment.. but al I was trying suggest was the author who'd been such educator (to me at least..) I thought had turned hasty/provocative! tats was al I suggested.. if u observe I'd specifically mentioned tat "I'm not tat huge a Gandhian" all my views were for the author! and I'm sure going by the present discussion the author understands wat I meant when I quoted M.K Gandhi..
and for others.. thanks for telling me the things which I already know!!
@SID:
Now we are talking. Your points are valid. Now look at the present unfolding scenario:
1. After London summit, US has realized that it has no money to run the Afghan war. It leaned on Pakistan and Pakistan was more than willing.
2. As soon as that happened, LeT started its shrill campaign against Kashmir, water etc. Pak politicians railed the talks. Came the Kabul bombing to force India out of Afghanistan.
3. Taliban in some form is going to form govt. with Karzai. Mullah Baradar was talking directly with the US for reconciliation and formation of govt. Pak did not like that and it caught him - in effect told US - look do Afghan business through us and not directly.
4. Karzai comes with the cojoined twins story about Pakistan. (Tho Afghanistan was the only country that opposed Pakistan's entry into UN)
5. After the US leaves, Af-Pak will be awash with Talibs and mujahiddeens with no enemy (as such). Hence they will be bored and Pakistan will utlilize them again against India, Central Asia, Europe etc (remember Bosnia, Chechnya etc).
6. With such an excess supply of bored fighters, Pakistan has to give them new targets, else Pakistan itself gets targetted. Hence Al-Qaeda is targetted as its fighting for mind space of the Pakistanis - its true goal is to take control of Pakistan and its nuclear assets and march the global jehad from Khorasan (mythical place dealt earlier in my blog).
7. If India for short term sides with Al-Qaeda (and this is a v dangerous thing to do, I admit) - it puts to awry the US-Pak plans for the region. With ensuing tugs and pulls - the end situation may benefit India. We expect US / Israel to get creative in the region for the benefit of India (though they will be doing it for themselves - we will be the unintended beneficiary).
8. Al Qaeda is getting stronger in Yemen etc - let that be the worry of others - the Af Pak is the nerve centre for now. It will not be, for too long.
9. In the end remember, neither China (for Xingiang) nor Iran (for Shiites are against Sunni Taliban) will allow a far right religious Taliban to take full control of Afghanistan. Neither Russia, nor Central Asians nor the Northern Alliance Panjshiris will sit idle. India need to worry too much about a Taliban take over or Pakistan having a free lunch without any consequences in Afghanistan, anymore.
It is too much of a complicated subject .Needs time & extreme analysis .Just would like to put forward few points -
1) What is a Covert Action ? Why is it needed ? What are the motives ? Who is/are the enemy ? What is/are its Nature ? How does it impact International community especially allies ? Would it antagonize long-term,short-term friendly Nations ? If it does how bad effect it can cause to the State`s reputation considering the fact that the mission can`t be compromised because it ensures National Security ? What would be the response of State`s own sections of society ,its Media & people ?
2) You could have been more precise to the point . Al-Qaeda is not AQ alone and not an end to itself , it has thousand branches working under thousand aliases .
3)Bin Laden is surely not our option. You could have been more precise by saying Afghan Taliban or The `Bad Taliban` to Pakistan and its `AAA` - Allah , America , Army !
4)There are plenty of options left to tackled Pakistan & its ISI . Doing it so with AQ would prove counter-productive and Pakistan would be able to play a great PSYWAR against India to show the International Community how India plays a role to Counter Pak by shaking hands with AQ, especially to US and to Israel. That is not expectable .
5)Pak has to pay the cost -no matter what , right ? Obviously True.
Are we trying to forget , NA ? Shias ? Non-Punjabi nationalist movements ? Balochs ? Mohajirs ? Pashtuns ?
There is a quote you may would like - "When the Shias of Pakistan are angry, the Pakistani Army & its ISI tremble." Highest example one can have : Zia`s assassination .
Pakistani Society is an answer itself . Later comes its Trade & Economy factor . We can`t forget Karachi , can we ?
Let us try to be more to the point, more analytical , more cunning and less patriotic , less emotional & less jingoistic .
India can do it. Pak has to pay the price and we will make them pay so .
-
Incognito .
BuA,
I understand your scenario but it is not a strong contender for practical feasibility. Here are the reasons:
1. Even if India wants to side with Al-Q, Al-Q would not. What is the tactical benefit are they going to get? Why would someone leave a "friend" for someone they have worked against in the past? It may happen but there must be a strong reason for this move. What would be the price of this alliance?
2. West would never approve of India siding with Al-Q. India still needs to buy significant amount of defence equipments that can be bought with west's approval only. New Delhi would not risk the consequences.
3. Guys at Delhi are so strategically inept that they could not upgrade army equipment in last twenty years. Expect them to negotiate with Al-Q? He he. Joke of the year!!!
4. Despite my respect for Israelis for their fighting capacity, I do not think US/Israel would be doing any pro-bono work in SE Asia. What is the reason for Israel whose resources are tied in Mid-east, to go for a long and costly operation here? As for US, super powers have no friends, they only have points of leverage and opportunities. US would put their foot here only when they want to gain something. What is that thing? There is nothing such visible in short term.
5. Iran could be our only hope. But searching for shia solution of a sunni problem may create strange bed fellows. It may confuse our priorities.
6. China may not like right wing extremists here, but they would be too happy to see that the problem being handled by others. At best, they would not provide sanctuary for terrorists.
7. Pashtun anti-taliban insurgencies have never been very successful, there is no reason to assume that they would be successful in future. The only thing that strengthens those insurgencies was the influence of individual war lords and their combined desire to stay independent of Taliban-i dominance. The US effort has done much to weaken their capacity.
Finally, Al-Q uses a wide gap in approach of the modern governments. Governments, for years, developed big army and strong defence at the cost of better governance and internal security. They thought that enemy would always come from out side and stronger fence implies better security. Now, the very side they ignored for so long, was being used against them. Our response to this menace can not be military only, a better approach to internal security has to be devised. But are we up to the task?
A.H.
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I completely disagree with BUA.
(1) Siding with AlQ is first and foremost a sign of weakness rather than one of strength.
(2) Pakistan is getting a taste of its own medicine already. Anyone can see that. US for sure is tasting that medicine right now. Do we want that taste ?
(3) China will surely get a taste of its own medicine. Its a matter of time. Maybe 20 years - but its written on the wall. For a nation which was living under Japanese rule throughout history, its rise is too fast for it to become a responsible power. So it will continue to be an irresponsible power.
(4) Does that mean we sit and do nothing ? I guess the main things that we should do are the following :-
(i) Beef up Internal Security. Arm our policemen to the teeth. Fight tooth and nail for every inch of land on the border and reclain lost areas.
(ii)Recruit like mad for the armed forces and rival China in all aspects
(iii) Forge more stronger links with Russia so that China always feels that if it goes after India, Russia will go after it.
(iv) Denude Pakistan of its Nuclear assets. Also kill its terrorist leaders including the TRAITOR - Dawood Ibrahim.
(v) Stop being sympathetic to Muslims and remove their citizenship as they are all traitors - except maybe Kalam and maybe one or two more individuals. All MUSLIMS ARE TRAITIORS. They should never be sitting in the armed forces or police or even in the government. They will only make the right noises but they will ALWAYS favor their own.
(6) Institutonalize the Bajrang Dal. the RSS etc and hire the next generation of armed forces from these institutes.
If you can do all of the above, then my dear friend you are talking sense. Building a long term vision and acting on it. It will become glamorous to be a Hindu once again. Hinsuism needs state support or else yours and mine grandchildren will worship the Satan - and be called Abdullah or Mustafa.
Think about it !!!!
One of the reasons we are sympathetic to Muslims is we feel they are our own brothers. They are not. They are wolf in sheep's clothing - ALL OF THEM !!! Annihilating the Nuclear aresenal of Pakistan should be our top most agenda followed by assassination of top terror assets of Pakistan. Its not eay to replace Dawood or Hafeez Saeed.
I think if our intel ppl are worth their salt..they are already on it.
I dont think we shud cuddle with Al-Qaeda proper.Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan & factions of Jaish-e-Mohemmad intent on turning their guns on Pak Army can be helped through proxies like Afghan intelligence & our Muslim diaspora in the middle east. But since the jihadi network is really loose and constantly trying to reinvent each other..we need experts who are hands on dealing and evolving our strategy with them real time. Otherwise, the guys we give explosives and training will be trying out his skills in India or Western countries if we loose track of their evolution.
To eliminate low-lives(Indian Mujahideen,SIMI) frm Azamgargh like ghettos and Nepal..we could co-opt "patriot" mafias like Chotta Rajan/Babloo Shrivastava gangs.To decapitate secured targets like Hafeez Sayeed,ISI/Pak Army officers,Dawood Ibrahim..highly trained special forces are required who can go behind enemy lines. UAV strikes/Cruise missile strikes should also be considered..to hit terror leaders as a tit-for-tat response to terror strikes in India.Israeli Precision Artillery weapons like Jumper 70km range Non-LineOfSightCannon are perfect for hitting infiltration hubs where terrorists gather in numbers before the final push.
The main point is there is lots of room between Al-Qaeda and Taliban.
Once such group is TTP. We could create "helpful" Taliban groups with the help of Afghan intelligence and Israeli intelligence. All we need is fake mullahs..frothing conspiracy theories & create disillusion, anguish & frustration in recruits.
The foot soldier may be genuine believer but they dont have to know real patrons.Another strategy is to create fissures withing Punjabi Taliban groups like LeT loyal to Pak Army.Dont know if we will be able to infiltrate command structure of jehadists to create fissures.. It will be too heavy duty for our careerist,job hopping,short tenure intelligence officers.
This is playing with fire. If Osama Bin Laden can turn against america, they will turn against India just like that. And today the anger against India is minimal. We are not US. We will be witnessing the same blasts that Pakistan is witnessing on a daily basis within months. This is suicidal and certainly should not be even considered. What should be considered is what our army can do. Our Mullahs are certainly no patriots. Its a foolish thought. The Muslim diaspora in Middle East are mostly sold to Pakistan than to India. There are certain Muslim patriots no doubt but they are far and few between.
As per the 2001 census, the percentage of hindus in bengal was ~72 per cent.
However that same census gave the per centage of Under 6 hindus as ~65 per cent.
In some districts muslims are already 50 per cent of the population.
SO I have a simple question to ask all Bengali Hindus-
when East Bengal was lost to Islam you came to West Bengal.
But where will you go if trouble starts brewing here?
When will you stop running away ?
Good question above. Its not that just the Bengali Hindus ran away, all Hindus ran away in phases whenever Muslim persecution started. That Hinduism has sustained for so long against Muslim onslaught is to be lauded. How long it can sustain ? Well I dont think beyond 2 centuries. By then the Hindu diaspora would have interspersed among various civilizations. Islamic India - now that will be something !!! Islamic India with 200 Atom Bombs - wow !! Can US and China even contemplate living with an Islamic India or lets say 10 Pakistans. Good i will not live to see that.
The only question that remains is this :- Will Hindus go the Parsi way or the Jewish way ? With no recruitment / conversion policy to swell its ranks, with very little pride left in it, Hindusim is certainly on its way out. It served well during the Puranic times, its outdated now. Its time is numbered unless and until the old pride is revived. But we need a very strong person to do that. Where is she ? I deliberately wrote she.
Why blame Hindus alone ? Even Christians have fled Islamic genocides. Take modern Iraq for example or modern day Pakistan or even modern day Nigeria - Christians are getting butchered there by the hundreds in each of these countries. Christians are fleeing Lebanon and Egypt from Islamic genocides. The level and intensity of such genocides are very very low but they are much there. The cleansing of various societies of faiths other than Islam by Islam carries on inexorably at a slow but steady pace. What the hell can you do ? Even in China the same thing is slowly happening from Uighur province. The Hans are still strong so the cleansing is not yet evident. But its happening. The difference between Islamic genocide and Christian / Jewish genocide is this - the genocide by Islam is slow, gradual and builds up pace with some violent orgies once in a while. While genocide by Christian / Hindu / Jews are in one shot and never in stages and never in continuity. The former is more lethal - its like the chinese water torture.
ISLAMIC GENOCIDE - The Slow and Steady method. Like Tortoise.
HINDU GENOCIDE - Once in a hundred years like the hare.
Who will win ?
I think the debate has been v healthy. I will say that it has been good to throw such a provocative idea around.
However, it is just an idea and it is not very practical in the long term perspective.
Yes, there are points which are weak within the LeT to Al-Qaeda system that can be exploited, which I am very sure is being exploited.
However, where India can do much more, is Baloch movement. I really dont think much happening there in military terms!! Time to seriously up the ante :)
Al Qaeda is ideologically linked and not prone to bribes. It is against the infidel Pakistan army elements those who side with the "kafir" Americans.
my arse they are not prone to bribes. how do u think RAW is already controlling so many al-qaeda offshoots to forment trouble in balochistan, now even punjab, if not for money? u think al-qaeda has shares in coke and microsoft so they don't need funds from any tom, dick and harry to fund their silly wars?
they reason they are against pak army and americans is because after creating them, the two are coming down upon al-qaeda. and they r more angry with pakistan since it's acting like both an enemy and a traitor of islam.
offshoots of al - qaeda are not really core al-qaeda.
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