Sunday, February 1, 2009

CHABAHAR PORT TO FEED NATO IN AFGHANISTAN - WHY NOT?

The premise looks impossible, given the current state of relations between Iran and US / NATO. However, let us look at this from five perspectives:

1. Infrastructure: Zaranj Delaram Road and Indian connections.
2. NATO: Current hurdles
3. Russia: Imperatives
4. NATO & IRAN – new relations with Obama
5. IRAN’s nuclear ambitions

INFRASTUCTURE – ZARANJ DELARAM ROAD:




On 22nd Jan 2009, INDIA handed over to Afghan authorities ZARANJ - DELARAM highway built by it in the face of stiff resistance from Taliban, vowing that the collaboration between the two countries in the field of development will not stop.

There are approximately 3,000-4,000 Indian nationals working on several reconstruction projects across Afghanistan. The principal projects include, among others:

- Construction of a 220 KV Double Circuit Transmission Line from Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul and a 220/110/20 KV sub-station at Kabul under the North-East Power System project to bring power from neighbouring countries to Kabul (USD 111 million);

- Humanitarian food assistance of one million tons of wheat in the form of high protein biscuits distributed to 1.4 million schoolchildren every day under the School Feeding Programme, administered through the World Food Programme (USD 100 million);

- Construction of a 218 kilometre road from Zaranj to Delaram to facilitate movement of goods and commodities from Afghanistan to Iranian border (USD 175 million – approval for an additional USD 91 million is being sought);

- Reconstruction and completion of Salma Dam Power Project (42 MW) in Herat province (USD 116 million – approval for additional USD 36 million is being sought);

- Construction of Afghan Parliament (USD 83 million);

- Reconstruction of Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health in Kabul in various phases, including reconstruction of surgical ward/polyclinic/diagnostic centre (USD 6.7 million);

- Reconstruction of Habibia School (USD 5.1 million);

- Digging of 26 tube wells in North West Afghanistan (USD 1.2 million);

- Gifting of vehicles (400 buses, 200 mini-buses, 105 municipality and 285 army vehicles) (USD 25 million);

- Setting up of 5 toilet-cum-public sanitation complexes in Kabul (USD 0.9 million);

- Telephone exchanges in 11 provinces connecting to Kabul (USD 11.1 million);

- Expansion of National TV network by providing an uplink from Kabul and downlinks in all 34 provincial capitals, contributing towards greater integration of the country (USD 6.8 million).

The present level of India’s assistance to Afghanistan is USD 750 million, making it the 5th largest bilateral donor after the US, UK, Japan and Germany. According to the Indian Embassy at Kabul, of the total pledge of USD 750 million between 2002 and 2009, the fully committed amount is USD 758.21 million and cumulative disbursement up to 2006-07 has been US $ 278.94 million.

This ambitious project (Zaranj – Delaram), funded and executed by India, will provide Afghanistan a shorter route to the sea, via the Iranian port of Chabahar, than is currently available through Pakistan. Iran, India and Afghanistan had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in January 2003, to improve Afghanistan's access to the coast.

Under this agreement, Iran is building a new transit route to connect Milak in the southeast of the country to Zaranj in Afghanistan, and has already completed an important bridge over the Helmand River.

On its part, India has completed building the new road connecting Zaranj to Delaram, which is on the main Herat-Kandahar road.

These projects will shorten the transit distance between Chabahar and Delaram by over 600 kilometres. (Understand why the Indian embassy was bombed by Taliban (Haqqani group under orders from ISI).

According to the MoU, Afghan goods will have duty-free access to the Iranian port and the trade from Afghanistan will have to pay no more than what is applied to Iranian traders for using Iranian territory for transit purposes.

India is to enjoy similar benefits as Afghanistan at Chabahar port and for transit. Furthermore, India and Iran have also agreed to build a railroad from Chabahar to the Iranian Central Railway Station, thus creating a link to the Karachi-Tehran Railway line, which goes further westwards.

While Afghanistan gains superior access to realize its trade potential, India will be able to prevail over hurdles posed by Pakistan in refusing to allow the transit of Indian goods en route to Afghanistan. Furthermore, India would be able to obtain quicker access (of GAS / HYDROCARBONS) to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Ukraine.



The Zaranj-Delaram project
, consequently, has direct ramifications for the three participating countries, and impacts on Pakistan by default. Afghanistan, the host country that is still a long way away from recovery, continues to be a playground for competing foreign policy agendas and the ‘new great game’ that is evidently being played out on its soil.

The Taliban (actually Pakistan Military and ISI) detests India’s proximity with the Hamid Karzai regime and leaders of the erstwhile Northern Alliance. The Taliban/al Qaeda combine and the transnational jihadi groups headquartered in Pakistan have consequently and continuously targeted Indian nationals and interests since India began reconstruction operations in Afghanistan, particularly in southern Afghanistan and in the Herat area bordering Iran.

Reconstruction efforts and the unfortunate consequence of violence play out amidst the reality of the limited control exercised by the Hamid Karzai Government over southern and eastern Afghanistan. The Taliban, al Qaeda and an assortment of tribal elders and warlords, including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, have de facto control over this region, and some of these entities either operate from their safe sanctuaries within Pakistan or directly secure support from the establishment in Islamabad.

The dangers of anarchy across wide areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border go well beyond the confines of the region, and are seen to be sourced in Pakistan to a far greater extent than in the debilitated state of Afghanistan.

Despite the steadily worsening situation in Afghanistan and the direct attacks against Indian projects and workers, there is no indication that India intends to dilute its presence or commitment to projects in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are strong efforts to further consolidate India-Afghanistan relations beyond the present commitment, which is primarily related to reconstruction and development efforts.

There is, for instance, a proposal for the Indian Army to train the Afghan National Army in counter-insurgency operations (this is ongoing, I believe). While India would remain "actively engaged" in the reconstruction exercise in Afghanistan in the foreseeable future, the next step of military cooperation would unambiguously threaten Pakistan’s attempts to secure dominance and recover strategic depth in Afghanistan.

Though Pakistan is currently wracked by multiple internal convulsions that have, in some measure, undermined its capacities of power projection into Afghanistan, it remains the case that it shares strategic goals with the Taliban in this theatre.

The Taliban and the transnational jihadi groups headquartered in Pakistan’s tribal areas remain the principal instrumentalities of Islamabad’s response to India’s deepening co-operation with Afghanistan – notwithstanding evidence of some radical Islamist activity now being redirected towards Islamabad.

Pakistan’s prospective strategies envisage an augmented share of power for the Taliban at Kabul, in the proximate future, and a return to the status quo ante of a Taliban regime, in the medium term. Preventing the stabilization of the Karzai is an integral element of this broad strategic vision. This orientation is also seen to constitute an existential imperative for Islamabad, since a strong and stable regime at Kabul would immediately put the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan into question, and further destabilize North Balochistan and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Pakistan’s covert assistance to the Taliban in Afghanistan, and its efforts to recover ‘strategic depth’ in that country through this proxy, will inevitably continue, though its scale may be calibrated to ensure that it does not provoke US ire and reprisals.

2. NATO – Current Hurdles

Currently, half of the US supplies passing through Pakistan is pilfered by motley groups of Taliban militants, petty traders and plain thieves. The US Army is getting burgled in broad daylight and can't do much about it. Almost 80% of all supplies for Afghanistan pass through Pakistan. The Peshawar bazaar is doing a roaring business hawking stolen US military ware, as in the 1980s during the Afghan jihad against the Soviet Union. This volume of business will register a quantum jump following the doubling of the US troop level in Afghanistan to 60,000.

To circumvent this pilferage and destruction (Taliban with a wink from Pakistan Army blew up NATO trucks in Peshawar from time to time) the American military has secured agreements to move supplies to Afghanistan from the north, easing the heavy reliance on the transit route through Pakistan. "There have been agreements reached, and there are transit lines now and transit agreements for commercial goods and services in particular that include several countries in the Central Asian states and Russia," Petraeus said.

However, this is wholly not correct as Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, added from Brussels, "We know nothing of Russia's alleged agreement of military transit of Americans or NATO at large. There had been suggestions of the sort, but they were not formalized."

Russia may give the go ahead if it realizes that its stake in the central Asian gas is not “captured” by these NATO / US forces. Any transit to NATO can also work as gas transit routes.


3. RUSSIA – IMPERATIVES


a)Russia is not facing the “bear hating & phobic" neo-con government in US, however it is very clear what the ultimate agenda of US / UK / NATO is in Central Asia. The missile defense and games in Poland have left a bad taste in the mouth of the Russians who saw it explode “2nd degree” by withdrawing gas from Europe through Ukraine ostensibly on “pricing issues”. The political undertone was not lost on anyone.




Russian experts have let it be known that Moscow views with disquiet the US's recent overtures to Central Asian countries regarding bilateral transit treaties with them which exclude Russia. Agreements have been reached with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Moscow feels the US is pressing ahead with a new Caspian transit route which involves the dispatch of shipments via Georgia to Azerbaijan and thereon to the Kazakh harbor of Aktau and across the Uzbek territory to Amu Darya and northern Afghanistan.

Russian experts estimate that the proposed Caspian transit route could eventually become an energy transportation route in reverse direction, which would mean a strategic setback for Russia in the decade-long struggle for the region's hydrocarbon reserves.

b) However, the other "major" thing that the Russians are very worried about is the explosion of militant Islam from Pakistan and into its hinterland.

Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin said,"I can responsibly say that in the event of NATO's defeat in Afghanistan, fundamentalists who are inspired by this victory will set their eyes on the north. First they will hit Tajikistan, then they will try to break into Uzbekistan ... If things turn out badly, in about 10 years, our boys will have to fight well-armed and well-organized Islamists somewhere in Kazakhstan."

Obviously, Russia would not want to fight militant Islamists (Taliban + Al Qaeda elements armed by Pakistan Army) in Uzbekistan.

The ultimate aim of Pakistan is of course to take control of these hydrocarbon reserves in Central Asia – as most of these countries are Islamic and it feels that with the “Islamic bomb” (read: nuclear) it has the de-facto ownership of “strategic reserves” of these Islamic countries.


Russia is very clear on Pakistan’s game plan and it wants to see NATO do the dirty job of eradicating this menace.

4. NATO & IRAN – New relationship under OBAMA



Washington is preparing a letter that will apparently be a reply to the congratulatory letter from Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad to US President Barack Obama on the latter's victory in the November election.

Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton said there is a "clear opportunity for the Iranians" to demonstrate "some willingness to engage meaningfully".

It is fairly clear that Ahmadinejad, who is riding a wave of popular support inside Iran, is all but certain to win a renewed mandate in the forthcoming presidential elections in June. Former president Mohammad Khatami, who was tipped to be a candidate of the reformist camp, has since excused himself from the race.

Thus US will have to deal with Ahmadinejad. And Ahmadinejad extended his hand of friendship first.

The US calculus will also factor in the following facts:

a) Iran can help keep the western, northern and central regions of Afghanistan calm while the US focuses on pacifying the south and southeastern provinces and the Afghan-Pakistan border areas. At the very least, Iran should not meddle with US operations there.

b) US can use Iranian opposition to the Taliban as a bargaining chip to get Pakistan to pare down any excessive claims on power sharing in a future set-up in Kabul.

c) Iran can help to put together any credible loya jirga or other form of inter-Afghan dialogue that is needed to legitimize any new regime in Kabul.

d) US is far better off engaging Iran directly than leaving Tehran to "gang up" with other regional powers (read: India + Russia). Remember the original backers of Northern Alliance (Ahmed Shah Masoud group were and remains : INDIA + IRAN + RUSSIA)

e) Karzai who knows that US is planning to oust him and replace him with Khalilzad, is loathe to hand over power and is actively wooing Russians and Iranians and is not averse to giving space to SCO (Shanghai Cooperation ) too. This will surely rile the US and it will quickly make reassessment of its plans.





5. IRAN’s nuclear ambitions

Every analyst worth his / her salt has discussed and came to two basic conclusions as to the main reasons for Iran’s nuclear ambitions:

a) To ensure that US / NATO do not invade or play in its yard and backyard
b) To ensure that Israel does not attack Iran and it retains the capacity to strike back.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, who is also the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press)gives a refreshing perspective (it has historical connotations - discussed later).

He states: Shi'ite Iran is nervously watching the security and political developments in neighboring Pakistan, which is rife with Sunni extremism. Inevitably, Iranian leaders and policy experts have to confront the question: what happens if some of those ardently anti-Shi'ite extremist groups get their hands on nuclear bombs? As it is, the Shi’ites are getting slaughtered in Pakistan by groups like Lashkar e Jhaghvi which are allied to Al – Qaeda.

It turns out that Iran's tacit consent to the US invasion of Iraq under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction was based primarily on Tehran's fear of Saddam's nuclear threat.

Iran had no fear of Pakistan's bombs when they were directed against India. But today the threat of those same bombs falling in the wrong hands is shaping Tehran's national security calculus.

With northwest Pakistan now lawless and its government unable to stem the tide of al-Qaeda and Sunni extremism, Iran's worry is that sooner or later this will infect the Pakistani army. If Pakistan's top military command were infiltrated, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal would be in jeopardy.

Historical connotation: Muslim world believes that in the end, the world will be largely Islamic through conquests etc, and the last fight will be between Sunnis and Shias. Iran cannot ensure victory for Shias if Sunni Pakistan has the atomic bomb. Hence, either it too will have the bomb or Pakistan should be "denuded" of its atomic arsenal. (US/NATO/INDIA/RUSSIA favour the "denuded" option - rather than seeing a nuclear IRAN).

Hence what can one take after reading the 5 issues:

The NATO supply route through Pakistan is all but over and the one suggested by US through Central Asia will require time and approval by Russia (which it might get with a time frame)

Iran’s anti-Taliban stance and its fear of Pakistani loose nukes fit well with the US rationale.



The shortest route to Afghanistan from a port, outside of Pakistan, to reach Afghanistan, lies through Chabahar port. The port and the road in Afghanistan has been built by India. (Note: How close is the Chabahar port to Gwadar (Pakistan). Gwadar is built with Chinese help to station Chinese Navy).

India can swing a deal for NATO, if agreements are reached between NATO / US and IRAN on imperatives in Afghanistan. It would need a tacit approval of Russia too.

This situation is dire enough to warrant serious consideration from Tehran about direct security dialogue with Washington on the entire gamut of regional issues: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and nuclear terrorism.

BuA analysis: Makes for a good point to start thinking about NATO shipments through Chabahar. The financial investments made on the port and the roads can be made in under a year by just transporting NATO goods.

Interesting side note: If Indian troops were to be stationed in Afghanistan, surely this will be the feeder route.


However, in statistical analysis of probability based on "random walk", the equations always carry an epsilon denoting "error" probability. In this analysis - ISRAEL and its concerns have not been taken into account. ISRAEL is the "epsilon" in the above analysis - one whose actions can throw everything out of gear.

376 comments:

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Kannan,India said...

picking up from that
....But bombing Iran would do no good for Israel.Since, it has genuine scientific talent unlike pakis..they will get up and running the program more vigorously and with vengeance. What I recommend? is to let Iran develop its nuclear weapons until some sort of common ground is reached like Libya,South Africa. In turn,Israel should be given an unconditional nuclear umbrella by US-NATO or absorb Israel into NATO. If Iran looses whatever gray matter that is left and attacks Israel,it should be nuked wholesale.The fixing of best X-band radar with American crew in Israel points to this twin American goals:
1) Prevent a surprise Israeli attack
(We will never know..Israelis have many Eitan Hawks with an obsession for Mission Impossible IV)
2) SOS Signal to Iran that we can live with another overt weapon state provided the pakis wont loose nukes to jehadis who really intent to use it ASAP.
If Americans give serious attention to diplomacy with Tehran, they will eventually cut-off oxygen to Hezbollah and Hamas. This ensuing calm will reduce Israeli itchiness to take down Iran. Seeing Iran hobnobbing with "Great Satan", Syrians will feel suddenly out of fashion and jump into the party. Syrians have recently started getting nervous about elements of their radical Islamic dogs meant for Israel turning on them. I think that triggered the secret negotiations with Israel with Turkey as mediator. I think we must seriously befriend loony Amhadinejad(whom we abandoned in Bush Era) since that is the in-thing with our strategic partner the "Great Satan". Besides, if we can rope in Iranians who have trained complete morons like Hezbollah into excellent terrorists, we can speed up our covert action capability in Paki-land. Baloch nationalism is Iran's problem too, but no harm in trying..Phew!

S.K, said...

@Kannan - well said.

India needed the nuclear umbrella hence had to side with Bush and against IRAN in UN - which the Iranians "understood" but never "appreciated".

India has got its act together. If US / Saudi try to activate "moderate" Taliban elements, India + Iran (with Russian blessings) will unleash the "non-moderate" Northern Alliance. That much is clearly understood by all.

There is too much at stake for the "civilized" world - for US to pull off the "Taliban" stunt once more.

Anonymous said...

Bro:

Welcome back. Excellent analysis...

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@Kannan:

Israel will see things with one view only - if it feels that Iran has become an "existential" threat to itself it will attack Iran irrespective of global geopolitical compulsions.

It never had the reach to reach Pakistan earlier, otherwise it may not have waited for Indian help either. They were even planning on one way suicide missions at one stage.

Israel is surrounded by enemies, and it said it will have to behave like a rabid mad dog, if it has to survive. Hence, what Israel will do, is anybody's guess. But making Iran go nuclear, might cross their threshold of tolerance.

However, the need is surely to engage Iran and understand its issues. Even being an oil economy, at the best of times, it was engaged in heavily subsidizing its economy (a la Venezuela) to keep dissenters at bay in Iran. But it had to pay a heavy price and with oil going down, its leverage has reduced greatly.

It's concerns are real and legitimate. They are an ancient and proud civilization - not like Pakistan and look upon themselves as proud inheritors of a bygone era. And why not?

US should engage Iran - it will calm the region. Then all of us can tackle the menace in Pakistan.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

A.H. - U went missing. Your comments were expected in Sir Caroe article - I thought that was right up your sleeve.

Cheers

BuA

Anonymous said...

To all Indians - spread this message:

An ingenious example of speech and politics occurred recently in the United Nations Assembly that made the world community smile.

A representative from India began: 'Before beginning my talk I want to tell you something about Rishi Kashyap of Kashmir, after whom Kashmir is named. When he struck a rock and it brought forth water, he thought, 'What a good opportunity to have a bath.' He removed his clothes, put them aside on the rock and entered the water. When he got out and wanted to dress, his clothes had vanished. A Pakistani had stolen them.'

The Pakistani representative jumped up furiously and shouted, 'What are you talking about? The Pakistanis weren't there then.'

The Indian representative smiled and said, 'And now that we have made that clear, I will begin my speech. 'And they say Kashmir belongs to them................................................

This is one SPEECH I recommend to be shared with 'ALL INDIANS'....... including the world at large.

Kannan,India said...

BuA,
But there must be a hard-nosed objective behind a military action. What will the bombing do.Even they could not find out substantial portion of Hezbollah rockets and dismantle its ever expanding bunkers and tunnel networks.How would they do that in Iran where they have constructed their nuclear facilities underground and spread out exactly keeping in mind Israeli capabilities and intentions. To hit Iran,they would need lots of sorties with mid-air refueling,Jerichos,bunker busting nuclear weapons and use of Turkish or Iraqi air space.Iran could close down Gulf of Homultz with Akula subs and coastal batteries of C-802s in response.If suppose Americans go all out on Iran and bomb everything that moves..who will pay for Iran reconstruction in a recession period?
Its a mess we are talking about, I am not saying its not possible..but there is a consensus in US that they cannot rollback nuclear weapons program by kinetic warfare alone.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@Kannan - I agree which is why Israel has not bombed Iran. Russia wanted to skew the war by giving Iran advanced S-300 anti aircraft missiles, which the NATO stated would be a game changer in the region.

Israel, however, said If Russia goes through with the sale of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will use an electronic warfare device now under development to neutralize it and as a result present Russia as vulnerable to air infiltrations. IMAGINE THAT.

Now, Israel has some sophisticated bunker busting bombs (mini nukes too) - but yes you are right, an Israeli attack will set back the Iranian nuclear program but will not STOP it.

A mad dog one can handle .. but a rabid mad dog ... I am not sure :)

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

I must admit though - I am an ardent admirer of Israel. I have been since I was 7 yrs old (why that is so, is inexplicable - as a child I mean ) - but it remains strong.

TTV INDIA said...

I would agree with BuA on the part that engaging Iran and providing it a larger Pie Share in Afghanistan would solve a lot of trouble for the region. It will also give India a further depth in Afghanistan and mitigate Pakistan Army's/IsI's interestes and collusion with Taliban/Al-Q. Also, a more entwined Iran and US bonding would more peace for the region.
What am not sure about is, that is the US/Nato willing to befriend Iran? All and sundry know the reason of US or A befriending India after almost 50 years of ignoring its potential. So while USA has conviniently made its SHORT/MEDIUM/LONG Term goals/ambitions/strategies, would Iran suit its Med/Long term plans for the region, even it it suits its shorter term plans?
My feeling at this point is that India should go all out in extending its friendship towards Iran even after the UN debacle, am sure there is no love lost between both these old friends. We should be following an Independant Foreign Policy specifically focussed on Iran and its interests, even if it means that sign a treaty with them to provide them support in case of a Nuclear attack on it (which does not mean providing it with nuclear arsenal and you can infer whatever you like out of it). Iran does have some extremely important resources which are critical to India in its progress and hence Iran's independence and stability are key to us in more ways than one. Iran is a key player in the GREAT GAME as per BuA and hence, having a key player by your side make a hell of a lot of difference. Infact, we may even be able to neuter US of A to some extent by simply getting larger roles for Iran. Getting Iran into the ALLIED forces would mean that there is lesser disturabnce on the GAZA as well and as Kannan mentioned has the potential of turning Hezbollah and Hamas into assets for Allied. I agree with the epsilon mentioned by BuA again, the worst thing to control on the planet today are the actions of the State of Israel. But then, it is key to their own survival and India should also understand that there are only two ways of its survival, one like a RABID MAD DOG and other, having independant foreign policies with key allies in the right places.

TTV INDIA said...
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TTV INDIA said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

BUA.. y ould the chahbahar route require ''Russia's Tacit Approval''???

Kannan,India said...

@TTV
I couldn't disagree more..
Israel is our true friend in need and have a natural crush on each other. Iran is so different from our make-up and worse we are infidels(in the long term at least).
From your venom for Israelis, I guess you are either a classroom marxist or a Islamic pseudo-liberal pseudo-secular nut job likes the ones we find in twocircles.net.(sorry of being personal ;-))
But Iran and India currently have an intersection of strategic interests in Afghanistan and its a odd Shia encircled by Sunni brethren.We should only use Iran as a condom(and vice-versa)..since it is as ugly as Pakis in state sponsor of terrorism like funding genocidal organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas which target kill innocent Israeli civilians. Since, pakis have ganged up with Saudis and China..with US as cold as fish to our paki problem..Iran is a necessary evil.
I think we should give Israeli jews automatic Indian citizenship as gesture of goodwill,so that when there is conflict in Israel, they can safely stay in India or permanently settle here.

Kannan,India said...

BuA,
I think its not a jamming device as such, more like hacking into the air-defence network using something similar to Bae Suter communications network attack system. But, from the indications available they haven't been able to develop an exploit vector for S-300 systems yet. The indication is that they have means to spoof and penetrate current Iranian air-defense but if S-300 is brought into the picture, it will have to spent more time and resources finding a counter-measure and precious time will be lost. And the threat that they are making is when they will find one(and share it with US/NATO), Russia's deterrence value and its market for those missiles will be in jeopardy.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Anon 3:53 AM

Russia is the current president of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to which Iran seeks full membership.

While moving toward allied relations, Russia can develop cooperation with Iran in virtually all areas, including nuclear power engineering. Russia can earn tens of billions of dollars on the construction of nuclear power plants in Iran alone. Tehran can receive not only economic, but also political support from Russia in the development of its own atomic energy sector.

For forming a Gas OPEC (a non starter really), Russia + Iran are the two major nations. With Yolotan Osman gas reserves being more than Iran's total gas reserves in Turkmenistan - it too may get into the game.

Russia + Iran together with India were hand in glove in arming the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

Iran expects Russian S-300 missiles

There are many many close co-operations between Iran and Russia and Iran knows the animosity and suspicion RUssia has towards US/ NATO intentions in Central Asia.

Hence, even if Iran agrees for the NATO transportation route, it will not undertake business without getting a Russian consent.

(According to me - while this looks feasible and makes for good reading, the reality of seeing NATO supplies landing in Chabahar is really very remote).

I will like to see it happen though. :)

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Response from VIUS (Very Important US Source) to this article.

"Not impossible at all. However you are wrong about Karzai and Khalilzad. There is no US candidate for President of Afghanistan. Zal is not going to run. "

BuA reply: Thanks VIUS. I had no inkling that Zal (I am guessing, he meant KHalilzad) is not going to stand for elections. In fact every think tank is shouting from the roof tops stating that Karzai is going to be replaced by Khalilzad. Guess, VIUS knows better. THANKS, VIUS.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@TTV

It will not be prudent to go and embrace IRAN whole heartedly. They too like people with power projections and regard us as an ancient civilization too. With Islamic nations if you were to go all out, they take that as a sign of weakness. Their religion is testosterone based, hence every action is seen and assessed based on your strength and weakness and not from the fondness of heart - in Islamic nations there is no concept of fondness of heart. Whenever, India has shown "fondness of heart" by extending a hand of friendship without counter guarantees - it has been stabbed. And this is the nature of the beast - mature countries deal with Islamic nations based on this. India is still learning the ropes.

If Israel does not behave like a mad dog, it will be eaten within a day and thrown into the river. Have you seen how small the country is? One can go up and down in a day. Imagine trying to keep it safe in an area surrounded by terrorists (OK - Jordan is calm and Egypt is "dependable").

India too, should learn to behave and arm itself to fight two wars simultaneously.

The moment I hear India can defensively maintain position to Chinese attacks - I feel a defeatist attitude has crept in. I had written earlier, that China has deep seated fears in its soft underbelly. India should pro-actively look at attacking those and China can do fig all - if we handle it covertly.

It is all about threat projection. The days of "love" are over and it was never respected between nations and never will be. GIVE & TAKE.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@KANNAN: I will assume that to be correct. By electronic warfare it could mean hacking too or jamming too. That is the veiled threat to Russia - "we will find a way into your systems and disable it and sell off information to US / NATO".

TTV INDIA said...

@ Kannan ; Sorry to disappoint you. Am neither. I am not as erudite as you or BuA neither do I follow any such sites except a few blogs like this one. I do agree that Israel would be a good ally and should not be ignored or done away with. We need Israel for support on terrorism, but we also need Iran for its resources to fulfill our energy requirements. Also, to neuter Gwadar, wee need to make sure that they are on our right side. Also, what I mean by Nuke Support to Iran is something what the west has done with Pakistan, give them to KEEP it. Albeit, my suggestion is not to give it to them for keeping. I agree with the Condom Theory of yours. As for Jews being given citezenship etc etc.... I would beg to differ with you on this one. I feel that any such collusion with Israel would make life even more miserable for us as the entire Islamic community would then be directly our enemies too including the ones in India. And we have a sizeable community. What with BuA's analyitical report on How the country's size and shape changes with the % of Islamic growth. I think, India should act as Independently as possible. Using tactical support from Israel to countre terrorism and their advanced weaponery is what we should look at.

Anonymous said...

RED HOT OFF THE PRESS:

PAKISTAN TO BLAME BANGLADESH BASED HUJI-B AND EXTREMISTS BASED IN SOUTH ASIA. CONVENIENTLY FORGETS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LeT AND HUJI-B.

Pakistan’s premier law enforcement agency, the Federal Investigation Agency, which is probing the Mumbai terror attacks has found that one of the terrorists involved in the November 26 carnage was of Bangladesh origin.

FIA investigators probing the Mumbai attacks are closing in on a Bangladesh connection to the terrorist strike where they have evidence not only of the involvement of a banned militant organisation Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B), but also of its part in the planning of the attack and training of the terrorists.

A reference to this regard is likely to be made in the FIA’s report that would be shared soon with India as findings of the preliminary investigations, The Dawn reported.

The keenly awaited report is likely to say that the Mumbai attacks were handiwork of “international network of Muslim fundamentalists” present in South Asia and spreading all the way to Middle East; and may build the case for regional anti-terror cooperation.

Although, the details of the report are being kept as a tightly guarded secret by the Interior Ministry, but those privy to it say that it would emphasise that the Mumbai incident is not strictly a Pakistan-India issue.

The investigators are intensely probing if at least one of the Mumbai attackers was of Bangladesh origin.

Although, this Bangladesh connection has recently come up quite prominently in the investigations, but there are also clear indications that some of the planning for the attacks was done in Dubai and there is also an element of local Indian support as well.

Sources close to the investigations say the two sets of questions given to India by Pakistan also touched on this aspect.

India has responded to only one set of questions and that also indirectly through US Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), while reply to the second set of questions is still awaited.

The investigators further suggest that the attack may be remotely linked to al-Qaeda’s international terror network.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@TTV - I find your arguments valid.

Everyone has their own reasoning and in geopolitics there is no right or wrong answer - just what works. It's as simple as that.

Hence, your point of view is always welcome. After all, I may be completely off the mark with an article like this. But that will not stop me from airing my views.

So, keep writing.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

And remember while we are engaging the US, the reason our Brahmos missile failed the Army trials could be the US.

Here's a theory.

Brahmos missiles depend on GPS for seeking targets. The GPS data comes from US satellites that orbit above. On that date of testing, suddenly the US satellites went blank over Pokhran - causing the missile to overshoot the target by a kilometer.

True or not, just imagine in a war - how vulnerable we are at just GPS data from US or any foreign satellite.

Max said...

@BuA - 8:58 AM

I kind of agree that if the US uses Chahbahar as a route to get supplies to Afghanistan, they may not consider Russia's tacit approval.

The main reason why Iran wants to gain membership into SCO is to counter their enemies: USA and co. The main players of SCO (Russia and China) are both anti-US while the rest largely dance according to Russia's tune. Moreover with the beginning of new dimension within the SCO that calles for joint military exercises (since 2003), it is in Iran's interest to get in because joint military exercises between 2 biggies and Iran would surely be a silent blow to USA and Israel.

If US & co. start engaging with Iran, which they ought to do for their own interests, they would easily overpower Russia on Iran's turf by supplying whatever Iran wants from Russia, be it SAMs or anything else including hard cash.

(Remember, US will be willing to bargain even with the devil if it has to)

The last thing USA would want is a mighty Iran that is close to China, Russia and India. While it may be a tall order to attack Iran, the US may try to win them over, a more logical and beneficial move.

After all Iran was America's turf during the time of the Shahs not Russia's. The reason why Iran is keeping itself in the good books of Russia, China and India is solely to counter the threat of US & co. If this threat doesn't exist, there'll be no pressing need to continue with Russia, China and India if the US can satisfy their desire.

If the US sets its sight on Iran as an ally it will do anything, including closing one eye to their nuclear program as how they did in the 80s and 90s when it was obvious to the world that Pakistan was acquiring nuclear weapons. After all the US knows it would not be the target of any of Iran's nukes in the foreseeable future.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@MAX:

Agree. However think about the Israel factor. Even if US is willing to wink at Iran's nuclear program like it did with Pakistan's, Israel is a different kettle of fish than India.

And my VIUS did not throw this theory out the window which is to suggest, this must have been debated with seriousness.

Did u know that Khalilzad is not getting propped by the US? any ideas who they are propping then? Or is it going to be Karzai, unopposed.

Cheers.

Max said...

@BUA

It would be almost impossible for Israel to attack a nuclear Iran but if you ask whether Israel has anything to fear that Iran would launch a nuclear strike against Israel unprovoked, in line with their "wipe Israel from the map" motto, I doubt so. Any country would know the consequences of starting a nuclear war and they'd not be foolish enough to do so unless they're provoked or are on the brink.

However to maintain superiority over Iran it would be in Israel's interest to take out Iran's nuclear plants (and I really hope they do just that).

I presume right now the US is playing a "wait and see" game.

Well I don't know who's your VIUS but if he's brainy and indeed "very important" he wouldn't confirm nor would he dismiss any theory in the open even if such plans are already on. So don't rely too much on his reaction.

There has been some hype in the media on Khalilzad running for presidency. There wouldn't be smoke without fire I believe. To add on there have been several assasination attempts on Karzai. Who know what they're planning?

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@MAX:

I am sure about this fact - Iran will not nuke Israel unprovoked - and even then its existence has to be at imminent threat - a level I am sure Israel would not allow it to reach.

It all depends what Iran does with its proxies in the region - Hezbollah etc.

Note that Al Qaeda has more stated more often that it has to fight Hezbollah some time into the future.

There are many permutations and combinations - but yes, there is not much Israel can achieve by bombing Iran today.

Yes, my source is very high up - but you are absolutely right - he will keep the US agenda and will not tell me "anything" more than a view. And certainly not anything "top secret". Yet a line to him is important.

Also, I would very much love to hear your reaction to my latest article. Thanks

Anonymous said...

BuA
===

News on 4th Feb - along the lines u wrote:

A human-rights activist and 2003 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Ebadi called for broad-based engagement between Iran and the US. She emphasized dialogue between non-government actors such as ordinary people and members of civil society.

"There is a history of friendship between Iranian people and American people," Ebadi said through a translator at a packed conference room at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The US State Department announced that a US women's badminton team would go to Iran to participate in a tournament there.

Interesting eh ... ;)

Ray Lightning said...

BuA, Kanna, TTV, Max :

Very interesting analyses. Firstly, thanks to BuA for compiling all this information at one place.

Let's say the central character in this geopolitical game is the Taliban.

It is very clear who are against the Taliban : USA, India, Russia, Iran & (remotely) Israel

It is clear who are in support of the Taliban : Pakistan, Saudi Arabia & (tacitly) China

The parties in support of the Taliban have their interests very well aligned. In contrast, the parties which are against the Taliban have several conflicting interests. Whatever arrangement is obtained between them is bound to be very dynamic. In capturing this dynamic, I think there are a few issues you might have overlooked.

1) Most arrangements will not happen between sovereign states. It is very likely that some countries (USA) will meddle in the internal politics of the others, when they can afford to do so.

2) It is in the interest of some countries to perpetuate instability in other countries. One very simple example is that Pakistan's interest is well-served by fostering instability in Afghanistan : whatever that instability be. Islamabad can lower its target of hoisting a favorable regime in Kabul, by a smaller goal of keeping Kabul unstable (that will serve its interests equally well). Similar to this example, it is in American interest at this moment to
make Iran & India unstable. And it is in greater interest to make Pakistan unstable.

3) When unnatural partners get together to vanquish a common enemy, the dialogue happens via a series of carrots and sticks. USA has several sticks to help in its dialogue with Iran (Baluchistan + Shah), India (Kashmir) and Russia (Ukraine, Poland, blah blah blah).

4) It is sometimes in the interest of a country to ensure that the dissent/instability in another country remains in the form of peaceful protests, and at other times it turns a violent sectarian movement. For example, currently it is in Pakistani interest that the unrest in Afghanistan remains violent, so that military force can be shamelessly deployed in NWFP. Similarly, it is in Israeli interest that the unrest in Palastine remains violent(and Hamas stays at the helm), so that military attacks can be justified. On the other hand, it is in American interest that the instability in Iran & India remains in the form of peaceful protests, and that in Pakistan to turn violent.

India should take note of all this calculus to make its move. According to India's interest :

a) It requires instability in Pakistan (but only in the peaceful manner because violence will spill over the border).

b) It requires that Iran be strong and stable (with no instability whatsoever).

c) It requires Afghanistan be strong and stable (with no instability whatsoever).

d) A stronger cooperation between Russia and USA towards the guardianship of central Asia (because India's foreign policy is anchored in both these countries' support)

e) That Israel remains strong but distinctly away from central Asian or south Asian politics.

Anonymous said...

its interesting to wonder why the VIUS, although generally looking and commenting at the article from a glance, seemed to pick out a relatively insignificant sector of the article -> USA propping Khalilzad

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

ARTICLE WHICH APPEARED TODAY 5TH FEB'09 ON THIS ISSUE:

THE REPORT:

NATO's top military commander in Afghanistan, General John Craddock, admitted that the alliance would not oppose individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan. To quote Craddock, a four-star American general who is also NATO's supreme allied commander, "Those would be national decisions. Nations should act in a manner that is consistent with their national interest and with their ability to resupply their forces. I think it is purely up to them."

NATO is keen to use the new highway built by the Indian government from central Afghanistan to the Iranian border at Zaranj, which would allow access to Iran's deep-sea Persian Gulf port at Chabahar. The road is largely unused. The Indians completed work on the highway hardly a fortnight ago.
NATO is scrambling. It must somehow reduce dependence on Pakistani supply routes, which are currently used for ferrying about 80% of supplies. The irony cannot be lost on onlookers. NATO seeks an Iranian route when Tehran is demanding a US troop pullout from Afghanistan.

Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dropped a bombshell on Tuesday by demanding the closure of the US military base in Manas, which is used for ferrying supplies for Afghanistan. He said this after talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, during which Moscow pledged to Bishkek that it was writing off $180 million debt and would also provide Kyrgyzstan with a $2 billion soft loan and an outright grant of $150 million.

NATO's envoy to Central Asia, Robert Simmons, rushed to Bishkek in a last-ditch attempt to stall the Kyrgyz move, but only to regret the development and admit that NATO's Afghan operations would be adversely affected. Washington still hopes to salvage the situation, but that involves taking Moscow's help.

Moscow is willing, as always - provided the US is prepared to shelve its untimely geopolitical agenda to broaden and deepen its (and NATO's) strategic presence in Central Asia on the pretext of developing new supply routes for Afghanistan. Plainly put, Moscow feels irritated about Washington's abrasive diplomacy in Central Asia in recent weeks.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said, "We hope that we and the United States will hold special and professional talks on this issue [of transit routes to Afghanistan] in the near future. We will see how effectively we can cooperate ... The US, Central Asia, China - we are all interested in a successful anti-terrorism operation in Afghanistan

Meanwhile, the shadow of US-Russian relations falls on the Hindu Kush. The Russian media reported that a high-level Afghan military delegation is expected in Moscow in the "near future". With a growing possibility that Obama may withdraw support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Moscow will be weighing its options.

WHEW !!

Anonymous said...

@ Zaranj Dilaram project is
condemned to be destroyed
totally. They are waiting for
the right moment.


L.T.Thomas Australia

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Mr Z Harris = L T Thomas. We know who you are.

You say your chappies will destroy the Delaram Zaranj connection. The Taliban tried it, the ISI tried it, I guess your boys can have a go at it too.

From a geo political angle, what is Pakistan's problem with Afghanistan trying to export out from a different country. Afghanistan is not beholden to blackmails from Pakistan.

Cheers and keep yourself to the Zaid Hamid blog.

Anonymous said...

Even the Russians read this article..

Times of India:

MOSCOW: Russia said on Friday that it will start allowing US military supplies for

Afghanistan to cross its territory, while Kyrgyzstan said
it will not reverse its decision to
close a key US air base.

Kyrgyzstan's National Security Council chief appeared to dash any US hopes of securing a last-minute reprieve for the Manas air base. Russia's move is unlikely to make up for the loss of the base, home to air operations like refueling and medical evacuation.

But Russia's opening of routes for non-lethal supplies could provide an important alternative to roads through Pakistan that are increasingly threatened by militant attacks.

Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov did not specify if Russia would provide land or air corridors but the US and other NATO have mostly been interested in land routes that would let them to more cheaply move bulky cargo.

By welcoming the transit of US supplies, Lavrov appeared to send a signal to Washington that Russia is ready to help on Afghanistan if the US deals with Moscow when it comes to Central Asia.

Russia last year signed a framework deal with NATO for transit of non-lethal cargo for coalition forces in Afghanistan and has allowed some alliance members, including Germany and Spain to move supplies across its territory.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@ANON above:

Surely you jest.

VIUS told me that this was being talked about in NATO corridors for quite a long time and this was the reason why India rushed to complete the Zaranj-Delaram highway. The Iranians are doing the same on their part too.

I am of course, not privy to NATO corridors - hence feels good that this article has not been "trashed".

Anonymous said...

u r another one believing what ur VIUS says is gospel truth come on man dont be so guillable that guy just giving u his opinion thats all....u dont have to buy everything he says is whats happening!! unless u have a strong personal relationship with him like relative/brother etc but if u r bengali then i dont know any bengali VIUS in the hot seat ... unless ur VIUS is a cpi marksist guy>>??

Anonymous said...

so just take what he say with a pinch of salt no worries k bro..

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

TO Anon above:

Of course I take what VIUS says with a healthy dosage of latitude. He is a "GORA" American and not an Indian or of Indian descent.

VIUS will speak from US view and I understand that. However, I thought it is better to air his views (right / wrong / misleading) than not at all.

Thanks

BuA

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@RAY :

You caught one nuance bang on:

"The parties in support of the Taliban have their interests very well aligned. In contrast, the parties which are against the Taliban have several conflicting interests. Whatever arrangement is obtained between them is bound to be very dynamic."

For (e) to happen, you need to assuage Israel's "rightful" worries and I am sorry, I do not see that happening. It seems Israel will meet Obama soon and "apprise" Obama of the "grave dangers" Iran poses to humanity (right or wrong - that is going to be the Israel stance).

Anonymous said...

BuA
===

Congratulations from us. Saw "intellibriefs" carry this article on their site.

All the best.

Keep blogging.

N. Khan, Lahore said...

The Zergham-Dilaram road was supposed to have been opened amid much fanfare by Prime Minister Singh who had been planning a secret trip to Kabul to meet with the “Mayor of Kabul” Mr. Karzai. Well it didn’t happen as planned. Prime Minister Singh is recuperating from a heart bypass surgery and Mr. Karzai is about to be replaced.

The road that was supposed to have heralded a new area of influence in Afghanistan is a sad state of disrepair and is unusable. The insurgent forces have targeted the roads and the supply chains. This is how they won the war against the USSR. They are using the same tactics against the NATO-ISAF occupation.

The road a symbol of US-Bharati and Bharati-Afghan cooperation is already a skeleton of what was planned. Neither ISAF nor NATO dare use the road.

Iran is least interested in any venture with Bharat afer Delhi stabbed it in the back by throwing it to the wolves of the IAEA and then firing an Iran specific satellite for Isreal. Delhi Tehran relations are on ice and have been in cold storage for a few years.

The Bharati plan to link Chahbahar to Kabul has failed due to a few reasons.

1) The “Taliban” (and 38 other anti-occupation forces) now control about 70% of Afghanistan.

2) ISAF and NATO does not control the famous Ring Road around Afghanistan

3) The Bharati built Zergham-Dilaram road has fallen into huge pothole og Afghan politics. It cannot be used and many of the bridges have already been blown up

4) Delhi and Teheran have fallen apart and there is no incentive in Iran to guve Bharat access to Kabul and beyond.

5) Instead Iran is working with Islamabad on building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.

Anonymous said...

N.Khan

Well, you copy pasted what Rupeenews said:

1) The “Taliban” (and 38 other anti-occupation forces) now control about 70% of Afghanistan.

- True but these Taliban forces are highly factionised and not a part of any steadfast union. There is a loosely joint coalition between some Taliban groups but again they are extremely loose and war often erruptsbetween them. To complicate the matter Taliban from being an Islamic grouping is now becoming more and more fanatic in terms opf ethnicity. We're seeing a rise in Tajik Taliban. Then there are the Pashtun warlords that claim almost all of Pakistan and 3 provinces of Pakistan. On top of that the Baluchis allign themselves differently although some Baluch groups are alligned to the Tajiks and a fewer number to the newly derived "Punjabi Taliban" that keeps appearing in Pakistani media. Each of these Taliban groups are not fighting for a single course but for ethnicity, intertwined with Sharia and their own customs - all of which make them very very messy. And its because the Pakistanis are not dealing with one or two organised Taliban groups, but many scaterred and messy ones with loose bounds around them, they seem to blame all strikes in Pakistani soil on RAW, who they believe India has penetrated. Of course I'm not ruling out that as since there are virtually 500 Taliban groups, it wouldn't be too difficult for the Indians to penetrate a fair share that's of use to them. One may say the Taliban disrupted the road progress, but the disruption was at best on par with that incurred on infrastructure development by non hostile states like South Korea and Japan.

2) ISAF and NATO does not control the famous Ring Road around Afghanistan

-Who does? As I said above its a loosely knit group of warring lords who all proclaim themselves as Taliban.

3) The Bharati built Zergham-Dilaram road has fallen into huge pothole og Afghan politics. It cannot be used and many of the bridges have already been blown up

-The road was only recently opened and as a TV station editor I edited an entire 6 hours of footage by my colleagues on the ground who covered the event of the construction of the road. The road looks surprisingly good. They visited most of the crucial links of that road and although they face problems such as theft of metal surbs, guards and lighting, the road itself is in a spanking new state.

4) Delhi and Teheran have fallen apart and there is no incentive in Iran to guve Bharat access to Kabul and beyond.

-Not really. India made the vote not favouring Iran in 2005. One year later India was awarded the bid to develop Chahbahar.

2003 - According to unconfirmed Indian reports, an accord signed between India and Iran on January 19 will allow New Delhi to use Iranian military bases in the event of a war with Pakistan. The agreement will also boost Indian armament exports to Iran and base Indian intelligence, security and military experts in Iran to train their Iranian counterparts. Appropriately, the “strategic alliance” came just days ahead of the January 26 visit to India of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami.

Indo-Iranian ties are too strong to be hampered by this vote because India has vast investments in Iran. Here's one example: Reliance, Indias largest company has been a major supplier of refined petroleum products for Iran. Reliance at times has provided as much as 30 per cent of Iran's need for imported petroleum. Other companies that supply to Iran include ONGC and Bharat Petroleum. Iran in return has provided India with large gas exploration blocks.

Plus Chahbahar route not only enforces and consolidates Irans position with the US it also makes US dependant on it. Iran is happy to do business with India so long it doesn't hurt its interest. And business with India has never hurt Irans interest.

5) Instead Iran is working with Islamabad on building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.

Well Iran never said it doesn't want to supply to India. Iran has been inviting and is inviting India but Indian government is faultering because they don't want to be in Pakistans grip as far as energy is concerned. Its nothing of concern. Whoever wants gas, Iran will supply be it Pakistan or China or whoever.

In future in case India has to cut water supplies to Pakistan, Pakistans natural response would be to cut natural gas. And thats why the government barged ahead to sign the nuclear agreement so that none of this situation needs to arise. And right away it has ordered EPRs from France and is starting up its FBR next year. Note that the agreement provides India legal provisions to stockpile nuclear fuel for the entire life of the reactor! And an EPR has a on-paper life of 75 years (thats how much fuel India can stockpile) although theoratically it may run for no more than 50 years. That's 25 years of excess fuel!! India has already signed agreements with South Africa, Kazakhstan, Russia, France and Canada for uranium fuel. Within the next 10 years India's thorium reactors should go critical and that leaves it with massive energy reliability in addition to the stockpiled uranium (India has enough Thorium to last it for at least 5 centuries). Such being the case it's wise for India to hesitate on this raw deal that only increases your country's hold over ours. Once we gain energy sovereignity (through nuclear means / stockpiling) we will be self sufficient without having any country controlling a trigger for water or energy.

To Pakistanis: advice: find an alternative way to supply yourselfs with water. Because if India shuts the floodgates you're doomed. We know what happened when India just partially closed it for few hours losses worth crores were incurred on you guys. But sorry to say you cannot find an alternative route for water supply.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

It is for informed comments like yours that makes this alive. Not that stupid nut job Zaid Hamid = Z Harris (though he provided fun for some time).

Anonymous said...

--> agree. taliban is

(1) too messed up for anybody to control in full.

(2) has no clear ideology. whether religion or culture or language they themselves dont know.
actually the issue is territory nothing more or less.

(3) everchanging mindsets. u support them today and brainwash them tomorrow against yourself and they'll gladly follow. dogs are smarter.

(4) desperate for money. this is the dangerous situation. anybody be they firangis or hindustanis or even yahudis give them money they will accept and work for them.

(5) never united. another problem. each wants their own power. people living in places like Peshawar, Mardhan etc will know that talibans can be friends or even brothers today and fight each other tomorrow because of $100 or because of betting or drinks.

and owing to this situation pakistan has become their playground. even our govt cannot know which of the hundreds of Talibans are behind the freqent bombings here. it may be raw or mossad or cia? who know? because talibans will sell their services as traitors to anybody.

well i been seeing z.harris (who is undoubtedly zaid hamid) who is a nuinsance here. i will not apologise on his behalf because i never consider zaid hamid as a pakistani or muslim because i have heard much much more about this sinner but dont want to reveal it here.



Sohail Abro


Larkana

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@SOHAIL

We welcome your comments here. Do enrich it with "sensible" (can be caustic too as long as it makes sense) from the other side.

Thanks for dropping by.

BuA

Anonymous said...

wellcome bro

you are a pakistan basher but nevertheless your articles are quite informative.


Sohail

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Sohail,

That was a broad brush - a Pakistan basher.

I rather see myself as "an extremism basher" and anyone who supports them as a foreign policy gets the boot too.

Incidentally I have spoken against loutish behaviour of Hindu so-called utlra right-wings too - MNS, Ram Sene (in latest article).

I am right of centre, no doubt.

I have zero hostility towards the average Pakistani citizen who does not wear his / her religion up the sleeve and is concerned more about developing Pakistan than put his/her nose in global ummah.

Live peacefully, happily, develop Pakistan - why should anyone have a problem with that?

Netaji said...

posts are interesting, but remember nukes are tools for criminal mass-murderers.Its not funny to make a mental exercise on nukes

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Olsonalrx said...

And remember while we are engaging the US, the reason our Brahmos missile failed the Army trials could be the US. Here's a theory. Brahmos missiles depend on GPS for seeking targets. The GPS data comes from US satellites that orbit above. On that date of testing, suddenly the US satellites went blank over Pokhran - causing the missile to overshoot the target by a kilometer. True or not, just imagine in a war - how vulnerable we are at just GPS data from US or any foreign satellite.

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