Sunday, March 29, 2009

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH, IRANIAN HELP & PAKISTANI CENTRIFUGES IN COFFIN ABOARD NORTH KOREAN AIRLINES



One of the most important geo-political event to take place in the coming week is the launch of Taepodong 3-stage missile from North Korea.

Let us look back to July 2006 – when North Korea last started preparing to launch Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile.

The US which had trumpeted the need for missile defense, had begun deploying the first interceptors at a base in Alaska. Bush and Rumsfeld ordered the military to try to blow the North Korean missile out of the sky.


ADM. TIMOTHY J KEATING

The man put in charge of the efforts was Adm. Timothy J Keating, the commander of the U.S. Northern Command. For six weeks in the summer of 2006, the military had prepared to launch ground based anti-missile interceptors from Vandenberg Air Force base in central California and from Fort Greely, the Army launch site about 100 miles south east of Fairbanks, Alaska. The idea was to blow up the Taepodong over the Pacific, demonstrating that America’s missile defenses were a real first line of defense against rogue states.


CLICK ON IMAGE FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW

It was a huge risk as tests of missile defense system had often ended in embarrassing failures. Yet, Rusfeld and other enthusiasts of the missile defense system, there might not be another opportunity as good one to test out the system. After all the North Koreans were not shooting up several warheads to overwhelm the missile defense system, nor did the missile have the sophistication to spew out chaff and decoys that could fool the antimissile interceptors.

The main US worry was what was in the cone of the missile – was it a dummy load, a satellite or a weaponized warhead? The US had to assume the worst and were prepared to launch interceptor missiles.

On JuLy 4th 2006, the Taepodong missile left its launchpad – Keating and Rumsfeld had between five and fifteen minutes to decide whether to launch the interceptors to take out the Taepodong. Satellites detected the launch at 4:01 pm, but Keating and Rumsfeld never got to test their prized new system. Forty two seconds into the flight, the Taepodong broke up, either because of a launch failure or because of the North Koreans aborted the flight.

North Koreans tried to cover this embarrassment by calling the Chinese embassy on October 9th the same year of an impending nuclear explosion. At 11:36 am, Pyongyang time, the US Geological Survey picked up a 4.2 magnitude quake on the Korean peninsula. The blast was not much more impressive than the Taepodong launch. It was nearly a dud and many suspect it was not a real bomb at all, but just a small controlled nuclear explosion. The yield was below a kiloton.

The contours of the North Korean nuclear program was hardly a secret to the US. While the plutonium path was known, the US started getting evidence that North Korea was buying equipment for a secret, undeclared program to enrich uranium – an alternative path to the bomb. The CIA had tracked shipments from Russia of aluminum tubes which are critical working part of a modern gas centrifuge. There were close to a hundred other items related to uranium enrichment that analysts had followed. Some of them came aboard a cargo plane commandeered by A.Q. Khan.

In July 2008, AQ Khan publicly stated for the first time about sending centrifuges to North Korea. He told “It was a North Korean plan and the Pakistani army had complete knowledge about it and the equipment.”

In June 2008, the North Koreans blew up the cooling tower at Yongbyon. However, in characteristic North Korean style, they tore the seals off their reprocessing facility and announced they would resume making bomb fuel.

As stated in an earlier article both North Koreans and Pakistanis realized that US / NATO do not mess with countries who have nuclear arsenals and they can pretty much bargain for food / money / aid by feigning to go into abyss from time to time to deflect mounting pressure from US.

Did North Koreans conduct nuclear explosion in Pakistan?

On June 10, 1998, an Air Koryo chartered plane took off the runway of the Islamabad International Airport of Pakistan. No one had anticipated the significance of this Pyongyang-bound flight in the affairs of the Korean peninsula. On board the plane were the 20 North Korean nuclear scientists who had conducted an underground nuclear test at Pakistan's Balochistan nuclear test site. In addition, the plane was loaded with the nuclear test equipment and test data.

Pakistan has conducted six nuclear tests. On May 28, 1998, Pakistan exploded 5 nuclear devices simultaneously at the Chagal Hills (Ras Koh range) nuclear test site. One of the devices was a boosted fission device. Two days later, a 14 KT nuclear device was tested at the Balochistan test site. This device is believed to be a plutonium bomb flown in from North Korea.

The people of Pakistan were relieved and overjoyed at the news of Pakistani nuclear tests in the aftermath of India's nuclear tests of the same scale (including a boosted bomb) a few days earlier. In stark contrast to the festive mood prevailing in Pakistan, the dark cloud of American spy planes and satellites shadowed the Pakistani nuclear facilities, and a horde of US CIA and DIA agents swarmed to Pakistan's capital.

Pyongyang had no time to celebrate its Balochistan nuclear test success because it had the daunting task of extracting its nuclear scientists, test equipment and test data safely from Pakistan. Hundreds of American spies and agents were out to grab North Korean scientists and nuclear materials. Even if the plane took off safely, it might have been shot down or forced to land by American planes.

North Korea had anticipated dirty plays by the Americans and worked out detailed counter measures for the safe return of its nuclear assets. Little has been published about this super secret operation. Several American news articles have revealed certain aspects of the operation, however.

The Los Angeles Times has published two articles related to the operation. On June 7, 1998, one week after the Balohsitan test, a gunshot rang out in the darkness of the night in the exclusive residential district of Islamabad. The district referred to as "E-7" is for high-ranking military officers and nuclear scientists, and as such, it is highly secured. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani bomb, lives in the district. In fact, the gun was fired only a few meters from Dr. Khan's residence. The victim was Kim Sa-nae, a North Korean woman. There was no eyewitness and Pakistani plainclothes men investigated the incidence. Kim Sa-nae was reportedly well-known for her cold-noodles, a famed North Korean dish.

Kim's death was duly reported on Pakistani newspapers but few paid attention at the time, when the news of the nuclear tests dominated the news at the time. The Pakistanis said that Kim Sa-nae was a North Korean diplomat. Her mysterious murder was forgotten until the Los Angeles Times picked it up one year later. The Los Angeles Times story went far beyond what was reported by the Pakistanis. It had some sinister twists added to the unsolved 'murder'.

1). The Pakistani police refused to disclose the true identity of Kim Sa-nae. The US intelligence claims that Kim was the wife of Kang Thae-yun, a mid-level staff member at the North Korean Embassy in Pakistan, and that Kang was in fact an agent of North Korea's Chang-kwang Trading Company, which sells weapons overseas. The Americans claim that Kang was no diplomat - he was a weapons salesman. Kang left Pakistan one month after Kim's death. On the other hand, the Pakistanis claim that Kim Sa-nae was one of the twenty North Korean nuclear scientists, who were staying at the guest house of Dr. Khan's residence when Kim was shot.

2). The Pakistani police has not disclosed the murderer of Kim Sa-nae. There have been three different speculations. One says that a cook working next door to Dr. Khan borrowed a gun from a guard and fired it by accident. The second story says that one of Dr. Khan's neighbors fired his gun accidentally while cleaning it. Dr. Khan has stated that Kim's death was accidental. In contrast, the American intelligence claims that Kim Sa-nae was an American spy and provided information on North Korea's nuclear tests to the Western intelligence agents, and that she was killed while trying to defect.

3). The Los Angeles Times article claims no autopsy was done on Kim's body and that the Pakistani police was told to close the book on her case. The American intelligence claims that her body was returned to Pyongyang on June 10th, four days after her murder on a Pakistani cargo plane, and that her coffin contained two centrifuge machines for enriching uranium and associated manuals. In those days, Air Koryo had two flights per month to Islamabad. In fact, an Air Koryo plane was at Islamabad at the time of Kim's murder. Then, why would Kim's body be on a Pakistani plane?

The truth is most likely that there was no Kim Sa-nae. She was made up by North Korea to create confusion to cover up the extraction of its nuclear assets. On the other hand, the Americans went along to hammer in their claim that Pakistan provided enriched uranium technology to North Korea (and therefore, North Korea 'has' an enriched uranium nuclear program).

The Kim Sa-nae 'murder' was a fabrication to draw away American spies in Pakistan from the imminent departure of the Air Koryo plane carrying North Korean nuclear scientists, test equipment and test data. It was a cat and mouse game, in which North Korea won.

Cut back to present : March – April 2009.


The new player in the block this time is Japan which is probably trying to test its expensive missile defense shield. Japan's Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada on Friday ordered the Japan Self-Defense Force (SDF) to prepare to destroy any ballistic missile fired from North Korea if it looks like hitting the country.

YASUKAZU HAMADA

Many believe that under the pretext of a satellite launch, North Korea is poised to test-fire a long-range ballistic missile to boost national prestige ahead of the Supreme People's Assembly starting on April 9. This date is also the 16th anniversary of Dear Leader Kim Jong-il's rise to chairman of the National Defense Commission of North Korea.

There is widespread speculation among military experts that North Korea will launch a third-stage version of the newly developed Taepodong-2 missile, which has a range of up to 8,000 kilometers. Many countries, such as the United States and South Korea, are concerned that a successful test-firing will provide Pyongyang with the capability for inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force is deploying the Kongou and the Chokai - the two Aegis-equipped ballistic missile defense (BMD) destroyers fitted with SM-3 missiles among Japan's six Aegis-equipped destroyers - to the Sea of Japan. One Japanese Aegis-equipped destroyer called Kirishima will also be sent to the Pacific to detect and track the North Korean projectile's path and to collect data on it to figure out whether it is a satellite or a missile. Kirishima has no ability to intercept it.

The Japan Air Self-Defense Force will shift its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) ground-based interceptor missiles currently deployed at the Hamamatsu base in Shizuoka prefecture to Japan Ground Self-Defense Force bases in Akita and Iwate prefectures in northeastern Japan, where rocket debris from a failed launch might fall.

Japan's BMD Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) can intercept inter-continental ballistic missiles at an altitude of about 100 kilometers and the PAC-3 has a range of about 20 kilometers. Thus, the ground-based PAC-3 is responsible for the lower range of the shield and is designed to intercept incoming missiles the SM-3 misses.

Hence the difference this time (2006 LAUNCH VS 2009):

1. Japan is the front runner to shoot down the missile this time, with US giving backup
2. Probably a 3 stage Taepodong and a more confident North Koreans this time


THE IRANIAN HELP THIS TIME - THE OTHER MAJOR DIFFERENCE:

Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper claimed that a 15-strong delegation from Tehran has been in the country advising the North Koreans since the beginning of March 2009.

The experts include senior officials from the Iranian rocket and satellite producer Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, the newspaper said.

The Iranians brought a letter from President Ahmadinejad to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il stressing the importance of co-operating on space technology.


If the missile is a failure or is aborted, this will result in serious embarrassment for the North Koreans. And if the launch is a success and Japan and US fail to intercept the missile – it will be an embarrassment for them.

Either which way, someone is going to be embarrassed with this launch going ahead . We will have to wait and see what happens.

Assuming that the launch is a success and Japan manages to shoot the missile down, the region can very quickly descend into an abyss with unknown consequences. While North Korea will not launch any nuclear strike as the military leadership there knows (as I suspect our Pakistani military counterparts know) that in that event their life expectancy will be like that of a FIREFLY.

What North Koreans might well do is to have another nuclear blast, this time going above the 1 kiloton level to regain respectability. And when it does, the world can clap the Pakistanis for it.


CHAKLALA AIRBASE - CLOSE TO J&K

While the world pays attention to AQ Khan, the person more important is Khalid Kidwai – the keeper of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals. Kidwai oversees the entire security structure meant to keep Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and fuels out of the hands of its enemies. Kidwai is based about three-quarters of a mile down the road from Chaklala military base, within the walls of the garrison and barely marked in a small compound for Strategic Plans.

His schooling was from Sargodha – a place that remains important to him as Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is stored there and nearby. Sargodha airbase can be seen on the map above, to the left of Lahore.

KHALID KIDWAI

On Nov . 23, 1971 when war broke out with India, Kidwai then a young second lieutenant was captured and held as a prisoner of war for two years in Allahabad.

And the world is paying the price for India releasing one more Pakistani from its jails.

One must remember that Bush included North Korea in the axis of evil only to make it look kosher – as he is supposed to have said – we cannot have all three countries in Axis of Evil to be coming from the Islamic world. Pakistan which gave the nuclear technology to the so-called Axis of Evil, itself continues to dodge the stigma of an evil empire – however it knows and the world knows how Pakistan is being looked at in the hushed corridors of powers.




The success or failure of Taepodong will reverberate in the corridors of India and Pakistan too – it will be fascinating to watch for the drama to unfold in the next few days.

73 comments:

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Anonymous said...

nvr heard about khalid kidwai. thanks for bringing him to surface. he surely potrays a low profile succesfully

TTV INDIA said...

Interesting... You know when we read all this, it seems that as a nation, we are consciously getting sucked into this global mess. The risks Involved to India to survive as a nation is high.

We have leaders who become PM's to get their weak knees reparied or their 2nd third bypasses done for free.

Incidentally, IBN live carried a hilarious article yesterday about the PM in waiting. He has finaly got an agenda for the forthcoming elections. BLACK MONEY STASHED in SWISS A/c's. It is as if he too read the article on this blog and decided that this was his Poll "PARCHAM". I mean first it was Ram Mandir, then It was TERROR, with Varun Gandhi episode it seemed that they'd get into the Hindutva Mode, and finally the 82 year old veteran has settled for bringing back that money from switzerland.

At this stage if a prime ministerial candidate is unclear what his poll plank would be, then shame on us as a nation.

fa said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOyCG6zKRXA&feature=channel_page

now even the world is learning the truth that who is carrying out terrorism in pakistan and who really carried out the mumbai attacks.

And our commandos flushed out the militants today in a total of 9 hours.

and the pathetic indian police and and army took 3 days to battle with 10 terrorists in mumbai. at least according to the official story.

Anonymous said...

Stupid Fa:

The attackers attacked a police outside for ****'s sake and not a high end 5 star hotel with unarmed and foreign guests.

Its amazing that you guys are trying to earn brownie points out of deaths and killing done by "MURDERERS".

Pathetic !

Anonymous said...

you say japan has nukes earlier, or is developing them. please elaborate bengal

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

I knew "someone" will ask me on the Japanese nuclear point - well Anon above - thanks for asking.

Point 1. Japan plans to increase the proportion of electricity generated from nuclear to 42% by 2010. As it is, Japan ranks third worldwide in installed nuclear capacity, behind the United States and France.

Point 2. Japan has one of the most sophisticated missile technology, rocket science and nuclear scientists in the world.

Point 3. Possession of nuclear weapons is not forbidden in the constitution.

Point 4. After US, the most potent navy force in the world belongs to Japan and it has missiles that can be dubbed "nuclear missiles" (warhead carrying capacity) that can be submarine launched (India is yet to perfect Sagarika etc).

Point 5. Japan has been at it since WW II. The Institute of Physical and Chemical Research, or Rikken, was assigned the project under the direction of Yoshio Nishina. The Japanese Navy was also diligently working to create its own "superbomb" under a project was dubbed F-Go, headed by Bunsaku Arakatsu at the end of World War II. The F-Go program [or No. F, for fission] began at Kyoto in 1942.The German submarine U-234, which surrendered to US forces in May 1945, was found to be carrying 560 kilograms of Uranium oxide destined for Japan's own atomic program. The oxide contained about 3.5 kilograms of the isotope U-235, which would have been about a fifth of the total U-235 needed to make one bomb. After Japan surrendered on 15 August 1945, the occupying US Army found five Japanese cyclotrons, which could be used to separate fissionable material from ordinary uranium. The Americans smashed the cyclotrons and dumped them into Tokyo Harbor.

Japan's nuclear technology and ambiguous nuclear inclinations have provided a considerable nuclear potential, becoming a "paranuclear state." Japan would not have material or technological difficulties in making nuclear weapons. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a week's time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as, as a virtual nuclear weapons state.

NOTE: As long as US is a superpower - Japan is safe with US fleet guarding it. However the economic meltdown is seriously going to downgrade the US global outreach in its policing duties.

With China's rise and its huge arms spending year on year and a cagey North Korea with missiles and probably "nuclear" payloads, Japan is not going to outsource its security to the US anymore. It is in all probability a nuclear country and has several hundred warheads.

If it actually does, at least, I am not going to be surprised!

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

A diversion:

Lahore attacks - that the Al-Qaeda backed militants (be it Lashkar e Jhangvi or Baitullah Mehsud run agents) - they are attacking the Punjabi bastion and are attacking the very heart of Punjab - attacking police training or attacking cricketers to demoralize the police / paramilitary outfits.

The last attack in Lahore is probably done by the Fedayeen-e-Islam a group believed to be comprised of members of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, or Army of the Prophet Mohammed, a banned terror group that operates in South Waziristan.

Wait a minute: Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) of Masood Azhar fame - the same chappie India is looking for and Pakistan is claiming he is not to be found after Interior Minister said he is under house arrest. And isnt JeM a front of ISI?

As I said before: ISI / Al-Qaeda / Taliban = no difference. These people want to take over Pakistan.

But to what end? Why?

In this article I said something about Sarghoda airbase. That it is the place Pakistan has stashed its nuclear weapons. And it is just west of Lahore.

And Al-Qaeda's aim is to gain control of Pakistan's nuclear assets.

Therefore ..... ???

Anonymous said...

BuA

Interesting analysis on the Koreans n Japs.

By the time i saw your latest post, The lahore incident happend. Was looking forward to your take on that.

"n this article I said something about Sarghoda airbase. That it is the place Pakistan has stashed its nuclear weapons. And it is just west of Lahore."

So, Is it possible for the Jihadis to get hold of the nukes. It looks likes it will not take a more than a commando of more than 20 odd people to plan and execute the nuclear hijack.

Does pakistan or India or the world have a fail safe policy?

cheers,
clemenza

Anonymous said...

The coffin-gate is most intriguing. I have heard about it earlier - but thanks for the detailed presentation.

Reminds me when Zia ul Haq told a visiting foreign leader who wanted to know what was happening in the "yet to be completed" nuclear plant in Kahuta - Zia said without blinking an eyelid - bicycle parts.

You gotta give it to these Pakistanis for their craft of deceit. And Taliban is their latest deceit to beg from US.

tru-d said...

to the above answer to an anon

Point 1 - OK

Point 2 - OK

Point 3 - Wrong. Japan's constitution DOES NOT allow development and deployment of WMDs or any OFFENSIVE material. Infact Japan is the only country with a constitution that BANS IT from waging a war.

Point 4 - Wrong. It's the French Navy. They have a nuclear carrier and a fleet of ICBM armed nuclear subs. Then comes the Royal navy and Russian navy. What makes Japan's navy one of the most potent in ASIA is US umbrella and US armed Aegis battleships. A comparable navy would be Australia's. While the ships are built in Japan, the defense systems and missiles are either US built or Japan built with US technology.

Point 5 - That's history. Japan was, at that era a warmonger. Today they have a new constitution thanks to the bitter pill they were shafted.

You wrote: "Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons."

Agree that Japan has the tech know how and capital for a venture. They can do it in a month. Please elaborate what raw material Japan has. Uranium? Plutonium? Oil? They don't have any. They have ACCESS to raw material (imported) though. Yea but they do have vast supplies of depleted uranium worthy to be reprocessed.

generally, Japan is a girl under US umbrella. A very powerful one though. And the US and gang (includes China and Russia for this account) will ensure that Japan stays away from the bomb as the world knows what's it like facing a rogue Japan.

WW2 scars haven't faded. Not in Pearl harbor, not in Nanjing, not in Burma.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Tru-D

Point no. 3:

On December 25, 2006: the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun published a government document dated December 20 about Japan's intention to develop small nuclear warheads. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki immediately refuted the report's authenticity, saying, "The government does not know anything about the existence of the document." Nevertheless, the question of a Japanese nuclear bomb remains open.

Speaking at a meeting of the House of Representatives security committee on November 30, 2006: Foreign Minister Taro Aso said: "Japan has the technology to produce nuclear weapons, but it is not going to use it."

He added that the constitution does NOT PROHIBIT Japan from having nuclear weapons. "Article 9(1) of the constitution does not ban the possession of a small quantity of arms for the purpose of self-defense. Even nuclear weapons are not outlawed if their quantity falls under this definition," the minister specified.

Also NOTE that at present Japan has the ability to develop nuclear weapons using both uranium and plutonium. As of late March of 2005, it had 43.8 metric tons of plutonium, 5.9 tons of which are stored in Japan and 37.9 tons in Britain and France. Experts have estimated that this is enough for almost 5,475 warheads, considering that one such weapon requires eight kilos of plutonium. There are reports to the effect that it would take Japan no more than six weeks to develop nuclear weapons, and not some primitive devices, but state-of-the-art nuclear armaments - either aerial bombs or warheads.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Nothing fascinating after all !!

North Korea had a successful missile test. They disguised it to carry a satellite (it carried a dummy one) - however it was a missile thru and thru.

Many people are saying that this test was a failure as N Korea failed to put a satellite in orbit.

Heck, North Korea never wanted to put any satellite in orbit. They just wanted to take advantage of loopholes in space laws to launch / test a missile under the guise of a satellite launch.

In that sense, North Korea won. No one tried to intercept the missile - well they could not be sure and if the interceptors missed the mark - that would have invited more ridicule and trouble.

North Korea takes advantage in round table talks. It also has a missile to sell. Bring on more coffins to transport missiles etc.

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