INDIA'S EXTERNAL RESPONSE - OPTIONS

There should be an Indian response – a) quick but well thought out external response and b) the time consuming internal response to the attacks on Mumbai.

This article will deal with India’s options on the external response and I invite readers to post their views / thoughts as to India’s options.

Keep in mind the macro picture:

1.This attack on Mumbai was done by Paskitan Army in conjunction with ISI, SSG and other commando apparatus for training, Lashkar e Tayyiba, Dawood Ibrahim & others.

2. These terrorists were not your “run of the mill mindless terrorists”, these were commando terrorists that have seen the merging of Pakistan Army with Al Qaeda, Taliban and other terrorist organizations. Pakistan Army uses these “deniable” operatives for pursuing its foreign policy agendas

3. There are 2 Shias that Pakistan wants to avoid – Barrack Obama and President Zardari. ISI operatives tried to kill Bill Clinton – the plans were found out by mistake when fire broke out in Manila apartment where the plotters were. And ISI is already plotting to kill both Barrack Obama and President Zardari. (ISI might wait out to see if white supremacists can do the job for them – in case of Obama)

4. Pakistan dearly wants to stop attacking its embedded soldiers in Taliban and wants to get away from the thrashing and backlash it is getting from Taliban in NWFP areas. To stop these "jehadists" from imploding into cities of Pakistan, it desperately wants to employ its soldiers to the “peaceful” Indian front. (Pakistan has factored in the fact that India’s military is not going to cross the LOC for an all our war - a few hot pursuits in POK at most - BASED ON EARLIER ASSESSMENTS AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF INDIA'S POLITICIANS).

President Zardari was clearly out of the loop on this one. There is a battle going on (as usual) between the civilian and military relationship in Pakistan.

Condoleezza Rice pressed on President Zardari to send the ISI Chief to India, but he was snubbed badly by Pakistan Army and Zardari had to hastily rescind the decision. (Much like the earlier abortive move to place ISI under Interior Ministry). She failed in Pakistan and is now coming to India (on 3rd Dec) to cool down India.

Bush successfully cooled down India after the Parliament attacks, and hopes that this time too he can be successful.

Hence, what are India’s options – external actions:

War is not an option now. You do not fight a war on terms and dates set by your adversary. This is much the case this time – a challenge has been thrown to India. If this was asymmetrical warfare from Pakistan, our response should be equally “unique”:

1. Stop water flow to Pakistan from Kashmir. Bleed them and make their land dry
2. Close air / road / rail links to Pakistan
3. Recall Indian Ambassador and stop issuing visas
4. Target killing of Hamid Gul, Mahmood Ahmed, J Nisar, Dawood Ibrahim, Hafiz Sayeed
5. Missile attack on POK training camps of jehadists
6. Blow up Karachi Stock Exchange
7. Blow up Gwadar port - completely
8. Naval blockade – before Kargil war was stopped, Pakistan Army had just 7 days of fuel left. Ensure a similar situation by blowing up of oil dumps.
9. Clearly tell Pakistan, that no troops are being amassed at “present”. Operation Parakram has taught Indian army the drawbacks of time sustained troop buildup. It can today, go for, debilitating strike into enemy territory in a very short period of time.

Last point comes under US pressure to ensure that Pakistan does not move troops from Afghanistan border. Reasons have been stated in earlier article.

Pakistan will surely up the nuclear ante. Time we stood up to that and say, no issues, you drop one bomb and we will annihilate Pakistan (remember our Army General who said this).

Pakistan cannot feed 160 million hungry mouths today – how can it feed 300 million mouths by 2050? Hence India – Pakistan war is INEVITABLE at some point. The longer we wait, the higher will be the casualties. Hence, we will wage war, but at a time of our choosing and it is NOT NOW.

What can you do?

For starters if you are living abroad, then start referring to PAKSITAN as TERRORISTAN. At every conversation with foreigners drill down this new name for our neighbour. And when you come across a Pakistani - after the courtesies are exchanged ask about the safety of his family in TERRORISTAN - the idea is to use psy ops on the Pakistani emigrate population.

Stop calling terrorists - mujahideens or fidayeens. They do not need "romantic" overtures. Call them "takfiris."


MAJOR SANDY UNNIKRISHNAN (1977 - 2008)

SIR, THANK YOU FOR SHOWING WHAT IS SELFLESS SACRIFICE AND COURAGE. I HOPE INDIA DOES NOT LET YOU DOWN.


Let me end by giving two statements made by US President (incumbent and to be), that was laughed at, some time back:

PRESIDENT BUSH – “ JUST WHO IS IN CHARGE OF ISI ?”

PRESIDENT (TO BE) BARACK OBAMA: “PAKISTAN HAS USED USA MONEY MEANT TO COMBAT TERRORISM (USD 11 BILLION) TO BUY WEAPONS (BY DECEIT) AND IS PREPARING TO FIGHT A WAR WITH INDIA.”

DEADLY ATTACKS IN MUMBAI - PAKISTAN SSG COMMANDOS LEAD THE WAY

This was a classic commando raid replete with beach landing et al. It had all the markings of a thorough Pakistani SSG trained operation – which makes it a Pakistani Army action.

This was not your ordinary terrorist operation – our NSG commandos can flush these “terrorists” out in 10 minutes flat – no more. What Mumbai saw, was a sophisticated assault by Pakistan on India.

The total number of terrorists who came to India are rumored to be 40, of which 29 are Pakistani and the rest from Bangladesh. About 20 came in a week before and the rest a few days back from sea. A couple of them were in India for some time, having found jobs in catering divisions of hotels that were attacked to facilitate arms storage and logistics through service areas. Not all, I expect, will be commando trained - neither will the majority be ex-army / commando embedded in LeT (Lashkar e Tayyiba). What is interesting this time - India has captured one terrorist alive and though badly injured, apparently he is being made to SING and SINGING he is. :)

Let’s look at the footprints of a classic commando raid : It had stealth “undetected” entry, speed, precision, accuracy, cohesion, ferocity and aggression, clarity of thought and action, planning and reconnoitering, dry runs and degree of resistance.

What gave them away too was weapons handling, the way to hold and fire assault rifles, the way to throw grenades etc. Like a good martial artist knows another good martial artist, our NSG and MARCOS commandos knew they were up against (mostly) SSG trained commandos.

Whatever our media tells us or puts a spin, make no mistake, this was an out and out classic commando raid.

They took down a NSG officer and a few commandos.

Hence these “terrorists” were not the ordinary terrorists one encounters around the world. They received 3 months standard high end commando training by SSG trainers. A few could have been terrorists drawn from the usual basket, but the best of the best to have to pass the gruelling commando course. Normally, these small groups of commando saboteurs are led by SSG Major and I will not be surprised to see one in this raid too.

These commando terrorists did not hide their faces, and it looks like they wanted to convey a message that they were commandos. Which gives rise to the question – Pakistan wanted to send a message to India – what could that be?

ISI Chief and Gen Kiyani are coming to India(NOW IT TRANSPIRES, THEY ARE NOT AND ARE SENDING "REPRESENTATIVES" (yawn !!). Expect nothing much out of this. The old story will be played out. India will offer “proof of Pakistani involvement” and Pakistan will deny it.

I am making a couple of brazen statement here.

1. Gen Kiyani was involved in the Indian embassy blast in Kabul. He is involved in the Mumbai blasts too. Captured Pakistani terrorists have sung praises of Gen Kiyani for being one of the best “teacher” and a “motivator”.

2. The lines have blurred between Al Qaeda, Taliban and Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army is heavily embedded in both Al Qaeda and Taliban. Earlier Pakistan Army used to lead raids in other countries through the garb of these mujahideen fighters, now it leads as well as runs these from within. These soldiers have gone “native” and dress and move as Al Qaeda / Taliban.

3. A highly trained SSG commando killed Benazir Bhutto. Those in the know say that this tall lithe man stood and fired three steady shots, and after each shot unwaveringly brought the firing position back to same spot to fire again - hallmark of a commando trained for VVIP killings.

4. Killing of 10 French soldiers in Afghanistan and Samba infiltration in India bore all the hallmarks of a SSG commando operation.

Pakistan army is completely at odds with the US Agenda in Afghanistan and does not want to fight the tribals / Taliban in its north west. Because it is akin to fighting one Pakistan army regiment with another and Pakistan army cannot carry on the sham attacks on Taliban for too long. If attacks carry on any longer, these Tribal militias and Taliban operatives that are not drawn out from Pakistan army, will feel "betrayed" by Pakistan Army's offensive on its cadres (already being felt) and this will lead to disastrous destabilising consequences within Pakistan.

It wants to divert the army's attention back to its eastern borders with India - and the Mumbai attacks would increase the Indian threat perception which will entail Pakistan moving its army divisions from Afghanistan border to the Indian border. This will allow Taliban (aka Pakistan army embedded in Taliban) to freely move and mount operations in Afghanistan against NATO / ISAF forces. How convenient?

OPERATIONALLY HOW COULD THIS BE MOUNTED?

It has been a well thought of strategy of Pakistan Army to embed the Taliban and terrorist organizations like Lashkar e Taiyyba, Jaish e Mohammad, Lashkar e Jahagvi with its own soldiers and commandos. These army recruits blend in with Taliban and terror organizations, deemed to have gone "native", maybe without the knowledge of Taliban / terror organizations who are just happy to have received high class "recruits".

Pakistan Army, through ISI, now draws back its own cadres from Taliban and these terror organizations for special operations around the globe. For Mumbai attacks, Lashkar e Taiyyba was chosen - but the actual foot soldiers were ex-army soldiers including SSG commandos (leading the charge) already embedded in these organizations - as well as a few battle hardened fidayeen terrorists. These LeT "terrorists" were given rigourous training by either current or ex-SSG commando trainers (sufficiently bearded to evade detect) who will probably be known as Gen Saab or Gen Mohd (aka John Doe).

After training, the underworld network of Dawood Ibrahim takes over the logistics of ferrying these so called "terrorists" to India and within India. The arms shipment is taken care by a specialized unit of Pakistan Army that affords it complete deniability.

PAKISTAN MILITARY OBJECTIVES:

1. Stop Pakistan Army fight its own cadres in the Taliban along the Afghanistan border where it is actively engaged in destabilising Afghanistan.

2. Create sufficient terror in India to increase the threat to Pakistan from India

3. Shift the Pakistan Army regiments from Afghan border to the Indian border thereby facilitating active sabotage of Afghanistan and ensuring the defeat of NATO / ISAF forces.

4. That Kashmir elections are going on, gives it a perfect cover. People may mistake that this was a LeT operation for Kashmir. RED HERRING.

5. There could be some "terrorists" with foreign passports. Jews were targetted and killed. This to show that this was an Al Qaeda operation and create sound bytes for the media. Make no mistake - these people were trained in Pakistan, and they were part of Pakistani army operation.

MAKE NO MISTAKE: ATTACK ON MUMBAI WAS A PAKISTAN ARMY OPERATION WITH CLEAR MILITARY OBJECTIVES.

What next then?

PM Manmohan Singh is in a bind. He has to take a TOUGH stand (ELCTIONS on the horizon, and few state elections underway) and might have to request Gen Kiyani with folded hands to co-operate : in other words, to allow India a few cross-border hot pursuits, to bolster his party’s soft image before elections (which I DOUBT will be granted. Pakistan may ban LeT and place Hafiz Sayeed in a plush AC accomodation "house arrest" till the heat dies down and it will continue to feign ignorance about whereabouts of Dawood Ibrahim..

INDIA, as usual, will be shortchanged. Expect nothing more than that.

Pakistan has played its card well, and as usual India has NO answers to give.

We do not have national database of criminals, no digital imaging / fingerprinting recognition software, no video surveillance, no dedicated centralized terrorism fighting unit of an adequate size, no uniform “patriot act”, no dedicated helicopters / gunships for ATS, no regular training for ATS, not adequate body armour, antiquated weaponry, no bi-partisan electoral support wracked as it is with vote bank politics – and if we are not a soft target, then what are we?

On top of that, ISRAEL has slammed INDIA for ham handed approach towards rescue operations. I agree. The way media was given latitude to cover the events live was shocking to say the least, it could have given inputs to terrorist inside.

I wish to end with a text message I got from INDIAN ARMY:

“FORGIVING TERRORISTS IS LEFT TO GOD. BUT FIXING THEIR APPOINTMENT WITH GOD IS OUR RESPONSIBILITY.”

JAI HIND !

900% GROWTH OF ISLAMIC POPULATION

The growth of Islamic population, their birth rates etc have been much debated. How does it impact the rest of us? And if the growth rate is alarming, how will it impact India?

I will present this article first with a macro view and then bring in micro view which is India / Pakistan / Bangladesh centric.

Let us look at the macro view – the presence of Muslims around the world.

MACRO VIEW:

Map 1 – shows that Islam is spread all over the world, and the annual growth rate in absence of total growth rate does not give a realistic picture.


Map 2 – This is an important map as it shows the growth of Islam and this is pretty much confined to North Africa / Arab / South & South East Asia.


Map 3 – It shows the percentage of Muslims around the world. India still has overall percentage <15% (but for only a short time – we will come to this later). In a separate article I had written why Islam cannot integrate with host nations – specifically acts of arson / killing go up commensurate with the increasing % of muslims in host nations.


Map 4 & 5 – Shows the actual Muslim population in countries. See the huge number of Islamic population in the Indian sub-continent.


CLICK ON THE ABOVE MAP FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW.

On top of such a huge and growing population the Islamic states are blessed with oil. Hence, it has been the dream of some Islamic scholars and strategists that the Islamic nations should form a confederation of states and come under one banner and control this precious commodity through Unites States of Islam (USI) – a de facto Caliphate. It is interesting to see the US version of this Caliphate and the Islamic version of this Caliphate, 2050 AD. In the US version – Afghanistan and Iraq are under US control. Of course, the Islamic version has no such pretensions. I believe, if this Caliphate comes about – it will mirror the Islamic version.

Map 6 – US version on Caliphate


Map 7 – Islamic version of Caliphate


The US version feels that there is tremendous conflict within Islam and sectarianism (fight within Sunni & Shia) will never make this Caliphate a reality.

Map 8 - Distribution of Sunnis & Shias in this world.


If Sunni & Shia can be termed as brothers – there is an old Persian saying. Me, my brother and our cousin against the stranger. Then me and my brother against our cousin. Lastly, it will be me against my brother. (Hence, what is stopping brothers from making common cause against an “identified” enemy – the stranger).

If you look at both the versions – India, it seems is out of this Caliphate. However, dreamers of this Caliphate in Pakistan, view it differently - they very much see portions of India in this Caliphate.

Map 9 - World Map by population. Look at this very interesting map. The map of the world has been redrawn with same borders but with different bulge – greater the population, bigger the bulge. Look at India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh – they are huge.

CLICK ON THE ABOVE MAP FOR AN ENLARGED VIEW.

Herein, lies the second part of the story. The declining population of Europe, Japan and Russia.

To maintain a steady population, a country has to have a birth rate of 2.10. However, Western Europe has a birth rate of 1.5 – which is 30% below replacement. For a nation obsessed with sex, they are producing less children. Other than a shrinking population, these countries will see shrinking economies and a far higher tax burden on the younger generation. Europe is trying to tackle this issue by importing Muslim labourers. France and Germany today have 10% Muslim population that are growing at a far higher rate than is the “host” Christian population. This affects foreign policy of nations. Germany and France did not support the US invasion of Iraq, simply out of the fear that their Muslim population will implode on them.

Japan which has an even lower birth rate of 1.3 has tackled its issues differently. They stand to lose 60 million of its population in the next 30 years. Japan does not import labour. It simply shuts down schools and businesses. Till date, Japan has closed 2000 schools and the rate of school closure is 300 / year.

For Russia the problem has taken catastrophic proportions. Its birth rate is so low, that by 2050, THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OF YEMEN. Russia sits on 1/6 of the global available land and one cannot defend such a huge territory with such a small population.

MICRO PICTURE:

Let us look at India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Even though Bangladesh was part of Pakistan in 1947, for reasons of statistics, I am taking it as a separate country. I will show the population that was there in 1947 and expected population of these countries in 2050. All figures taken from World Bank.

PAKISTAN: Population in 1947 = 30 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 300 million. A 900% growth over 103 years.

BANGLADESH: Population in 1947 = 32 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 280 million. A 775% growth over 103 years.

INDIA: Population in 1947 = 345 million. Expected Population in 2050 = 1630 million. A mere 373% growth over 103 years.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh have overwhelmingly Islamic population, hence growth is wholly attributed to them.

In case of India, there is a difference of Islamic population growth rate and the Hindu population growth rate. Muslims in India accounted for 9.9% of India’s total population in 1951, 10.8% in 1971, 11.3% in 1981, 12.1% in 1991. (CENSUS FIGURES - ACTUAL FIGURE HIGHER).

Let us look at the scientific data, and try to figure out when India’s muslims become 25% of India’s total population. Will come to why this 25% is important.

Total Indian Population in 1991 = 816 million.

Indian Muslim Population in 1991 = 101 million (12.1% of total).

% Increase in Total Population since 1981 = 23.8
%
Increase in Muslim Population since 1981 = 32.8
%.

We now make a few rough, order-of-magnitude calculations of the numbers involved and their actual consequences. Using t for time, with origin at 1991, T for total Indian population and M for the population of Indian Muslims, the relevant exponential equations are:

T(t)=T(0)exp(0.24t), with T(0)=816mil
M(t)=M(0)exp(0.24t), with M(0)=101mil

Our first calculation is based on the admittedly ad-hoc assumption that India can't support a population more than double the present one. The time for population to double is obtained by solving T(t)=2T(0), and we get t=2.89. Since we are measuring time in decades, this is about 30 years. Now we find that M(2.89)=262mil, while the total will double to 1632mil, and so the Muslim fraction will be only about 16%.

Now let us look at what it would take for the Muslim fraction to reach 25%. The relevant equation is:

M(0)exp(0.33t)=0.25T(0)exp(0.24t)

Solving for t, we get t=7.81, which is about 80 years i.e. 2070.

It is reliably argued (IN BOARDROOMS) that when the Muslim population of India will reach 25% of the total population, there will be a third partition of India. (The first two gave birth to Pakistan and Bangladesh).

Which area is vulnerable to such a scenario?

A quick look will point to Assam, West Bengal and Bihar. The present population ratio of Muslims is calculated to be 28% in Assam and 25% in W. Bengal.


I am quoting from a brilliant article written by Arun Shourie – which is a must read. He states: “West Bengal accounted for 56 per cent in South and North Parganas, 48 per cent in Nadia, 52 per cent in Murshidabad, 54 per cent in Malda and about 60 per cent in Islampur sub-division of West Dinajpur. (For those who are not in the know – the above mentioned named eg: West Dinajpur etc are districts within the state of West Bengal)

A study of the border belt of West Bengal yields some telling statistics: 20-40 per cent villages in the border districts are said to be predominantly Muslim. There are indications that the concentration of the minority community, including the Bangladesh immigrants, in the villages has resulted in the majority community moving to urban centres. Several towns in the border districts are now predominantly inhabited by the majority community but surrounded by villages mostly dominated by the minority community. Lin Piao’s theory of occupying the villages before overwhelming the cities comes to mind, though the context is different. However, the basic factor of security threat in both the cases is the same.

‘‘...Figures have been given showing the concentration of Muslim population in the districts of West Bengal bordering Bangladesh starting from 24 Parganas and going up to Islampur of West Dinajpur district and their population being well over 50 per cent of the population. The Kishanganj district (of Bihar) which was part of Purnea district earlier, which is contiguous to the West Bengal area, also has a majority of Muslim population. The total population of the districts of South and North 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Nadia, Malda and West Dinajpur adds up to 27,337,362. If we add the population of Kishanganj district of Bihar of 986,672, the total comes to 28,324,034. (All figures are based on the 1991 Census.) This mass of land with a population of nearly 2.8 crores has a Muslim majority. The total population of West Bengal in 1991 was 67.9 million and of these, 28.32 million are concentrated in the border districts, with about 16-17 million population of minority community being concentrated in this area. This crucial tract of land in West Bengal and Bihar, lying along the Ganges/Hughly and west Bangladesh with a population of over 28 million, with Muslims constituting a majority, should give cause for anxiety for any thinking Indian.’’

And what if, from these figures, I had advanced two warnings.

First: ‘‘There is a distinct danger of another Muslim country, speaking predominantly Bengali, emerging in the eastern part of India in the future, at a time when India might find itself weakened politically and militarily.’’

And second "that the danger is as grave even if that third Islamic State does not get carved out in the sub-continent into a full-fledged country.”

I agree 100% with Shourie and would like to draw attention back to 2070 when this might become a reality as per statistics. However, the reality will be different. The plotters in Pakistan have re-drawn the India map and they want to see it fructify in their lifetime – and most of these are old warhorses are into their late 60s and 70s. Which means – in the next 15 years.

I have kept this article deliberately simple. There are many scenarios which can seriously complicate the above assumptions, for example:

1) detonation of a dirty bomb in Gujarat
2) nuclear attack on Israel
3) increasing riots in city centres as food becomes scarce following a draught, population keeps increasing but land mass does not
4) Shrinking shorelines due to global warming and consequent rise in water level. Will push millions of Bangladeshis in Bengal.

I give 15 years before we see very interesting and intriguing developments in our neighbourhood. Some of our politicians are hastening this process by shamelessly indulging in vote-bank politics.

And the game has started unfolding in Assam and Bengal. I had written an earlier article : BEHEADING IN BENGAL - WHAT NEXT? Another article I wrote : IS THERE A GORKHALAND? I believe this Gorkhaland agitation has been funded by ISI to wrest the "Chicken neck".

To exacerbate the split:

1)The serial blasts have taken place in Guwahati. The blasts want to split the community along religious lines - makes it easier for a future split.

2) Logically, therfore, blasts are imminent in Kolkata, Siliguri in West Bengal. It should be mentioned, Assam, Bengal and Kerela are the most communally sensitive states (as per poll). Hence, blasts here will have the desired result.

3) SIMI etc will carry on mindless killing of innocents to push forward the message: We can strike anywhere at our will and your police and intelligence are worthless in protecting you. This will psychologically wilt the population and drive it against police / army / political forces, hastening the divide.

WHAT NEXT? AND OUR RESPONSE?

BEFORE THE NEXT 9/11 - PAY THE SENATORS OFF!!

There was damning evidence linking ISI with Al Qaeda and 9-11. In fact, there has been serious evaluation and part of US Intelligence even stated that ISI masterminded 9-11, Al – Qaeda was a mere facilitator.

A few comments here, as I will deal with this in details in a later blog.

Arnaud de Borchgrave, editor of Washington Times stated: “ Former Pakistani intelligence officers knew beforehand all about Sept – 11 attacks. They even advised Osama bin Laden (OBL) and his cohorts how to attack key targets in the US with hijacked civilian aircraft. And bin Laden has been undergoing periodic dialysis treatment in a military hospital in Peshawar, Pakistan.”

CIA officer Gary Schroen who spearheaded US’ search for OBL in Afghanistan stated: “ISI officials – probably at the colonel level, are very well aware of OBL’s presence in Pakistan tribal areas. Musharraf was so afraid of the internal political consequences of finding OBL that he doesn’t want to know his whereabouts. I think the philosophy of the Taliban, this fundamentalist view , is popular there. So Bin Laden, I think, strikes them as heroic. He fought a jihad against the Russians, and he’s bloodied America’s nose time and again.”

THE MOST DIRECT LINK- WHICH FBI CONFIRMS: ISI wired money to 9-11 lead hijacker, through Omar Sheikh. Why then is Omar Sheikh not being dealt with when he is already under sentence of death? Astonishingly his appeal to a higher court against the sentence was adjourned for the 32nd time and has since been adjourned indefinitely. This is all the more remarkable when this is the same Omar Sheikh who, at the behest of General Mahmood Ahmed, head of the ISI, wired $100,000 to Mohammed Atta, the leading 9/11 hijacker, before the New York attacks, as confirmed by Dennis Lormel, director of FBI's financial crimes unit.


GEN. MAHMOOD AHMED

OMAR SHEIKH

When Mahmood Ahmed, head of ISI, was exposed by the Wall Street Journal as having sent the money to the hijackers, he was forced to "retire" by President Pervez Musharraf.

Bruce Reidel, the then National Security Council senior director for South Asia in the Bill Clinton administration stated: “If there was a state sponsor of al-Qaeda, it was the Pakistani army, acting through its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)".

The following report was received by the 9-11 commission from “the” anonymous well connected Pakistani source : “The core issue of instability and violence in South Asia is the character, activities and persistence of the militarized Islamist fundamentalist state in PAKISTAN. No cure for this canker can be arrived at through any strategy of negotiations, support and financial aid to the military regine, or by a regulated transition to democracy. The imprints of every major act of international Islamist terrorism invariably passes through Pakistan, right from September – 11 ( 9-11) – where virtually all the participants had trained, resided or met in, coordinated with, or received from or through Pakistan – to major acts of terrorism across South Asia and South East Asia, as well as major networks of terror that have been discovered in Europe.”

Given that the 9-11 commission had extra-ordinary proof to implicate ISI and Pakistan for 9-11 along with Al-Qaeda, the final report does not find any reference to either ISI, Pakistan or indeed Saudi Arabia.

What transpired?

It seems the Pakistan foreign office paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to lobbyists in USA to get the “anti-Pakistan” references dropped from the 9-11 inquiry commission report.

Pakistan weekly, THE FRIDAY TIMES claimed, its story is based on disclosures made by foreign service officials to the Public Accounts Committee at a secret meeting in Islamabad (March 2006).

The sensational claim was – “some of the 9-11 commission members were also BRIBED to prevent them from including DAMAGING information about PAKISTAN. The disclosure sheds doubt about the integrity and honesty of the members of the 9-11 inquiry commission and, above all, the authenticity of the information in their final report.”

The report quoted an officer as saying that dramatic changes were made in the final draft of inquiry commission after the lobbyists got to work.

FRIDAY TIMES claimed, A LOT OF MONEY WAS USED TO SILENCE MEMBERS.

According to the report, the lobbyists also helped Pakistan win sympathy of 75 US Congressmen as part of its strategy to guard Islamabad’s interests in Washington.

This resulted in a complete U-Turn and Pakistan emerged as front runner in the fight against terrorism and US pumped in Billions of dollars to a doddering Pakistan economy on the brink of collapse.

Did not the 9-11 commission members have a patriotic duty to find the truth? The answer to that is NO. There were many skeletons in the closet.

Andrew Rice, chair of the 9-11 commission Committee of the Sept 11 Families For Peaceful Tomorrow organization is among millions of terribly frustrated Americans and he stated: “This official 9-11 commission was “fixed in” from the beginning.”

A senior EU Diplomat stated: “They (the 9-11 commission) seem to be interested in putting up a good show as a coverup; and of course they’re very worried about damage control.”

THE 9-11 INQUIRY COMMISSION – A FEW MEMBERS.

This commission comprised nine men and a woman, five Republicans and five Democrats.


Chairman Thomas Kean: His was the case of most devastating conflict of interest. The US $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of Sept 11 included TWO FORMER business partners of Kean – Saudi Billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz (brother in law of OBL) and Mohd. Hussein al-Almoudi. Mahfouz transferred millions of dollars from a Saudi Pension Fund to bank accounts in London and New York linked to Al-Qaeda. He is also the former director of BCCI – the Pakistani bank in the centre of $12 billion bankruptcy scandal and terrorist links.

KHALID BIN MAHFOUZ

A little digression to show the hand of Khalid Bin Mahfouz in India's terrorist funding too. See chart below. Click on it to view enlarged version.


(Note: Bush himself had business links with Mahfouz – various investments in Houston, TX).


Philip D Zelikow – ultimate Bush insider, who worked with Jim Baker. Co-wrote two books with Condolizza Rice. Mr Zelikow, a former academic, once tried to push through wording in a draft report that suggested a greater tie between Osama bin Laden and Iraq, in line with White House claims but not with the views of the commission's staff. Read this Telegraph UK article.


Jamie S Gorelick – very close to CIA director George Tenet. This means no chance for the commission to investigate dubious covert operations by the CIA which may forment terrorism instead of fighting it.


John Lehman – ex Navy secretary under Reagan and served alongside two of commissions’ key witnesses: Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former counterterrorism head Richard Clarke. Lehman is Kissinger’s man in the commission (de-facto Bilderberg group oversight).

It's unlikely fellow members at the 9-11 Commission will ask Kean to reveal to what extent he was aware of Mahfouz's links to al-Qaeda.

As to the 28 pages of the joint congressional committee detailing Saudi support to al-Qaeda, they also seem to have vanished into thin air.

The commission, for instance, also will not investigate the foreign policy that started it all in the late 1970s and early 1980s: the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA's) full support to the hardcore international Islamic brigades which joined the jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan - and then turned against the US after the first Gulf War in 1991. This would mean that the commission would have to seriously investigate Secretary of State Colin Powell and his number two, Richard Armitage, key players in those 1980s proceedings.

Former national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, also one of the key members of the Council on Foreign Relations, was the mastermind behind the building of an Islamic network in Afghanistan - as part of a huge, covert CIA operation. To a large extent, the modern Islamic jihad exists thanks to Brzezinski. There are four members of the Council on Foreign Relations in the commission. There's hardly any chance of them investigating their fellow Brzezinski.

The commission report was anyway going to get whitewashed with or without Pakistan lobbyists pumping in money. Pakistan just helped itself get a clear name in the bargain. If the BIG BOYS were anyway going to play dirty, why not PAKISTAN?

The US always stated that the warlords in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal areas can be bought by the highest bidder. They forgot the mention that they too could be bought !

PAKSITAN – MONEY FLOW AFTER 9/11

The lobbyists not only got the name of Pakistan and ISI out of the final 9-11 commission report, it also helped Pakistan win sympathy of 75 US Congressmen as part of its strategy to guard Islamabad’s interests in Washington. It was a matter of time before the money came in.

Dr Farrukh Saleem, noted economist in Pakistan commented: “ The US Department of Defense has been depositing a cool $100 million a month in our treasury for the last four years. The US forgave $3 billion worth of bilateral debt, and then convinced the Paris Club lender nations to reschedule a large portion of $38 billion bilateral debt on easy terms. Add it all up – and thank OSAMA – for the total bonanza is going to be a colossal $40 BILLION.”

No wonder, in Pakistan, Al Qaeda is known as Al Faeda.
Faeda in Urdu means = BENEFIT.

Readers are free to draw their conclusions from this.

I only wonder, why Colin Powell is a friend of Pakistan (forget the military liking the military – is there a money trail, I wonder?)

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USA - SKELETONS IN THE CLOSET?

NOT AT ALL, IT WAS FOR A GOOD CAUSE - WHY SHY AWAY FROM THEM ?!!


Zbigniew Brzezinski: "What was more important in the world view of history? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet empire? A few stirred up Muslims or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?"


Senator Orrin Hatch: "It was worth it. Those were very important, pivotal matters that played an important role in the downfall of the Soviet Union."

Osama bin Laden was the creation of Saudi Intelligence (Prince Turki) and CIA.

Dr. Azzam and al-Zawahari had fought for the CIA in Lebanon and Palestine.

Moro Islamic Liberation Front (milf) was funded by Al Qaeda and trained by ISI. These were Islamists in southern Philippines. You would expect USA to take good care of this overwhelmingly Christian island. But its eyes were locked on to Soviet demise and so "anything went". CIA cover flights had flown 200 MILF mujahidden from Chittagong (BANGLADESH) to Karachi (PAKISTAN), in the garb of special flights for HAJ pilgrims to fight in Afghanistan.

Small contingent of US Special Forces helped ISI airlift Pakistani mujahidden to GEORGIA anad adjoining ARMENIA. Some jihadis were also transferred by boat from TURKMENISTAN to SOUTHERN DAGESTAN from where they traversed to CHECHNYA. These were also favourite arms supply routes for the ISI and the CIA.

While Pakistan and Al Qaeda were focussed on creating an Islamic Caliphate, the US need not have worried about as Brzezinski said " A FEW STIRRED UP MUSLIMS" !!

INDIAN LEADERSHIP : LOST OPPORTUNITIES

India cannot afford another weak kneed Prime Minister at its helm, who should read “Foreign Affairs for Dummies” before taking on the wheel of the nation. Foreign leaders have assailed Indian leaders in public and private (Kissinger tapes etc) and this was not without reason.

India’s defensive stance in the global platform was built around non-alignment and non-violence, as if that would give India a high moral ground. The question people forgot to ask: High moral ground from whom – from the marauding Chinese, expansionist Russia or the interventionist USA? Or were we trying to impress the plethora of smaller African and South American nations whose standing in the international forum counted for nothing. Nobody likes a weakling – they are not given respect.

India today, deserves respect.

India today, has to chart its path out from the venomous snake pits of jehadism, Chinese and Pakistani confabulations, global economic meltdown and other myriad contentious issues – and for that we need a strong Prime Minster.

We have had eminent leaders with global perspective whose vision has been world betterment. Whilst the cause is certainly noble and I salute it, India has had to sacrifice its ‘strength’ on the socialist alter.

A LITTLE HISTORY NEVER HURT ANYONE:

MAHATMA GANDHI: How MK Gandhi transformed from a “recruiting sergeant” for the British during WW1 to “Mahatma” is engaging reading. However it is his use of non-violence as an all weather solution for all aggression that was ridiculed.
With Japanese invasion imminent in July 1940, Gandhi championed a policy of “non-violent defense” of the sub-continent which, according to him, required that Indians ‘calmly’ allow themselves to be butchered until such time as the “aggressor” gets mentally and even physically tired of killing non-violent resisters, whereupon the Japanese, presumably disgusted with themselves, would withdraw.

To the British whose backs were pushed to the wall, in 1940, Gandhi appealed: “.. to accept the method of non-violence and to fight Nazism without arms”, which involved, he wrote “inviting Herr Hitler and Signor Mussolini to take what they want.” Gandhi continued, “Let them take your possession of your beautiful island, you give it, but you will give neither your souls, nor your minds.”

To Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, in his meeting with Gandhi in Kolkata (Calcutta) in Feb 1942, Gandhi advised: “You will allow yourself to be slaughtered, but you will refuse to owe allegiance to them”.

YEAH, RIGHT !!!!

Understandably Churchill went into an apoplectic fit and Chiang Kai-shek dismissed it airily as being irrelevant for China.
Probably Gandhi got his first lesson when he was hounded out of “Grand Hotel” by Islamists in Kolkata whilst giving his speech there, post India’s independence. He muttered publicly then, that non-violence will probably fail against illiberal regimes. It was too late for Gandhi – he was killed by right wing Hindu groups for giving away Akhand Bharat (undivided India).


JAWAHARLAL NEHRU: Nehru refused to believe that the Chinese were an enemy and was completely taken in by “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” (Hindus i.e Indian and Chinese are brothers) chants that the Chinese propagated. He rubbished the news emanating from Lhasha and forward posts. His Defense Minister taken in by this, even ordered ordinance factories to make coffee percolators and toasters as he deemed that they would have spare capacity to do so. The Chinese attacked and Nehru was taken by surprise!

After the 1962 debacle, Nehru’s health deteriorated. His sister Vijayalakshmi Pandit advised him rest, but Nehru replied: “What for; to what end should I recover my strength?”

Nehru’s shock can be gauged from a parliamentary debate in March 1963. Asked if India planned to do anything about the road the Chinese had built linking Sinkiang with Western Tibet, a dispirited Nehru replied; “I can do nothing.”


MORARJI DESAI: Possibly no one harmed India more other than this PM. He believed that India could drive out any enemy without the “bomb” (nuclear bomb). At every moment he would state: “I don’t believe that Ramanna even made the bomb.” He went on to say that he did not care what happened to India, but for reasons of morality the country should not have nuclear weapons!

India almost terminated its nuclear weapons program under Morarji Desai, with help from (SURPRISE SURPRISE) Atal Behari Vajpayee. Ironically AB Vajpayee, then Minister of External Affairs (who later became India’s PM from BJP) represented the right wing nationalist Bharatiya Jan Sangh party, which was sworn to acquire nuclear weapons for the country. So, why did Vajpayee run counter?

The Cabinet was convened to discuss preparations for nuclear testing and weaponising. At the end of the discussion, the Cabinet voted by a vote of 3 – 2 and approved nuclear testing and weaponsing. The two NAY-sayers were Morarji Desai and AB Vajpayee. Later on Mr Vajpayee defended his position by saying : “INDIA SHOULD NOT OFFER PROVOCATION TO THE PAKISTANIS”.



Whether Vajpayee was doing it on his will or was pressured by anti-nulclearist Jagat Mehta, he exorcised his ghost when he became PM and gave orders for nuclear testing. There is a side story to that too – it was probably the Russian intelligence that informed India that Pakistan was preparing to to test nuclear weapons and India did not want to be upstaged. He remains my second favourite Indian PM (after Indira Gandhi) - however it is during the last part of his tenure that there were uncomfortable questions aptly brought out by TIME in its article : Asleep at the Wheel?

However the worst crime of Morarji Desai: According to the September 18-24, 1988 issue of the weekly Indian Magazine Sunday, RAW agents claimed that in early 1978, they were on the verge of obtaining the plans and blueprint for Kahuta nuclear plant that was built to counter the Pokharan atomic blast, but the then Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai not only refused to sanction the $ 10,000 demanded by the RAW agent, but informed Pakistan of the offer. According to the report, Pakistanis caught and eliminated the RAW mole.

One of the commentators MAX stated the following : "Regarding Desai, the reason he exposed RAW's plans to Pakistan is because he was with loggerheads with Indira Gandhi, and he felt RAW was Indira's puppets that is intended to protect her arse. That's why from day one he was dead against RAW."


INDIRA GANDHI: Probably the best Prime Minister India ever had. She was sabotaged by her minister and in the second instance she failed to take advantage of a situation.

India had readied plans to strike the Pakistani nuclear plant (Kahuta). With the strike imminent, the US intelligence was alerted by source(s) on the staff of PC Alexander, Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister. Washington, in turn, informed Pakistan of the attack plans and the latter’s airforce , in turn, readied to strike Trombay. Prime Minister Gandhi could still go ahead, but developed cold feet and called off the strike.

After the end of the 1971 war, India held 90,000 Pakistan soldiers as POWs. India let go of these POWs without getting anything in return. Indira Gandhi could have solved the vexed Kashmir problem then and there. POWs in exchange for Pakistan held Kashmir and signing that the whole of Kashmir belonged to India. A truly historic blunder, which continues to flummox war historians.


PV NARASIMHA RAO: He turned down an invitation by Moscow to absorb the best and brightest from the Soviet defense science and industry into the Indian strategic armaments projects, as the crumbling Soviet government could not afford to pay them, because the piddling sums in hard currency the Russian scientists were ready to settle for, in rupee terms amounted to more than what the highest civil servants drew as salary in Indian currency. The deal amounted to chosen Russian scientists getting free lodging, transportation etc, a salary of Rs 10,000 (USD1 = Rs 24 at that time, now Rs 48) per month, plus USD 200 in hard currency. After the Indian snub, the best amongst the Russian experts were then grabbed by CHINA.

WHY A STRONG NATION IS RESPECTED & FEARED : Whether its big as CHINA or small as ISRAEL.

CHINA: In 1996, the US tried to frighten Beijing into easing military pressure on the island State by ordering a nuclear carrier task force from its Seventh Fleet into Taiwan Straits. Instead of being intimidated the Chinese fired missiles literally across the bows of the advancing American ships, claiming they were conducting missile tests. A chastened US quickly re-routed its flotilla out of harm’s way and the crisis was defused.

ISRAEL: On June 8th 1971, A convoy of Indian peacekeeper soldiers, flying the blue UN flag from their jeeps and trucks, were on their way to Gaza, when they met an Israeli tank column on the road. As the Israelis approached, the UN observers pulled aside and stopped to get out of the way. One of tanks rotated its turret and opened fire a few feet away. The Israeli tank then rammed its gun through the windshield of an Indian jeep and decapitated the two men inside. When the other Indians went to the aid of their comrades, they were mowed down by machine gun fire. Another Israeli tank thrust its gun into a UN truck, lifted it, and smashed it to ground, killing or wounding all occupants. In Gaza, Israeli tanks blasted 6 rounds into UN headquarters, which was flying the UN flag. 14 UN members were killed in these incidents.

Israel had a war to win, a nation to save and anything that went against that was obliterated.

Even a US warship. USS Liberty was a NSA snooping machine that was trying to catch the Israeli war as it happened. Ariel Sharon and his men were at their heinous best in Egypt and not knowing what intelligence NSA has picked up, would have reason to suspect the worst – that the agency had recorded evidence of the numerous atrocities committed in Egypt. This would be devastating evidence of hundreds of serious war crimes, approved by senior Israeli commanders. Israel gave the go-ahead to attack USS Liberty. For the first time since WW II, a US Ship was attacked so blatantly.

Without warning the Israeli jets struck - swept wing Dassault Mirage IIICs. The aircrafts had no markings. The Mirages raked the ship. As soon as the Mirages pulled away, they were replaced by super Mystere fighters. There were 821 separate hits to the hull and superstructure. In addition to rocket, canon and machine gun fire, the Mysteres attacked with 1000 lb bombs and napalm. Not over, the Israelis unleashed 4 torpedoes of which 1 hit with devastating blow.

32 American crew died (2 more to die later). 2/3 of the rest were wounded.
Israel informed the US naval attaché in Tel Aviv, that Israeli air forces have attacked the USS Liberty in error.

Yeah, right !!!

The US accepted a paltry US $6 million in damages from Israel. The US Johnson administration and Congress covered up the entire incident. The State Department even asked the Israeli ambassador if his government had any objections to Mc Gongale (Captain of USS Liberty) getting the “Congressional medal of honour”. “Certainly not”, Israel said.

Two recent events in 2008.

The US is pounding away suspected terror sites in Pakistan.

Russia attacked two provinces of Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia because it was in their supreme national interest to do so. This had two immediate effect. Israel moved out of the war zone a week before the hostilities started and lay prostate at the Russian premier's feet asking for forgiveness (Israel war arming Georgia and did not want Russia to arm Iran with missiles). Germany too lay prostate at the Russian premier's feet and promised them that Germany will not support NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia. For Russia - other than pipeline advantages, political milestones were accomplished too with this one act.

India too, needs to understand, that strength and resolve are rewarded and given obeisance to. It keeps mute to all the internal bombings and the current political shenanigans are busy trying to subvert India by indulging in shameless vote bank politics. The episode of Amar Singh is so nauseous that I could puke at his puffy face: He is apparently trying to pay the Islamic terrorists of Batla House Rs 1 lakh each. If this is not treason what is?

What INDIA needs today is not another idealistic, jelly kneed PM but a pragmatic, strong PM able to deal with current pressures. India is at an inflection point with its recent phenomenal success with the moon mission and nuclear deal. We now need a team of leaders who will catapult India to a new stratosphere of strength and readiness.

My Choice:


CONGRESS PARTY : PM – PRANAB MUKHERJEE and DyPM – KAMAL NATH


BJP : PM – LK ADVANI and Dy PM – NARENDRA MODI

To Rahul Gandhi – Learn the ropes for 10 years and then we will see.

TIME TO TEACH CHINA A LESSON

13th November 2008 : China made a direct request to India for blocking the proposed six-day meeting organised by the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala from November 17 to discuss the future of Tibet. Significance of Tibet.

Qin Gang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: “Anyone who participates in the meeting being organised by the Dalai Lama will not be liked by the Chinese people. The Chinese government is against anyone trying to split the nation or raise such an issue in the international arena. The Indian government has made solemn commitment about not allowing any anti-China activities on its soil. We hope that the commitment will be implemented.”


The Dalai Lama invoked article 59 of the Tibetan Charter that empowers him to call a 'Special Meeting' to discuss the future course of action as his envoys returned empty handed after secret meetings with Chinese government representatives. The past few weeks has seen the Tibetan leader complaining that he had "given up" on China and that his "faith in the Chinese government is thinning."

The "special meeting" to be held in Dharamshala will be attended by past and present members of the cabinet in his government-in-exile, past and present members of the Tibetan parliament in exile, representatives of non-government organisations and intellectuals interested in the Tibetan issue.

INDIA MUST NOT STOP THIS “SPECIAL MEETING”.

Chinese aggression on ground and verbal diktats are no longer welcome. It is time India behaved like a powerful nation and rapped the knuckles of these "interfering" Chinese.

30TH September 2008: The wall of mistrust continues to be an impediment in Indo-China relations. Intrusions by the Chinese forces continue unabated into Indian territory despite attempts by a red-faced South Block to brush them under the carpet.

The most recent incursion occurred on September 30 at the Burste post in the Ladakh sector along the Sino-Indian boundary. Soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered 15 km into India.

While the transgression itself was unacceptable, the Chinese captured the patrolling base hut of Indian forces who were not present at the outpost. The patrolling base was burnt and rations and other equipment stolen. In another incident a fortnight ago, the Chinese PLA confronted Indian soldiers and asked them to “vacate Chinese sovereign territory”.

THE CHINESE AUDACITY IS A DIRECT FUNCTION OF INDIA'S IMPOTENT RESPONSE.

Recent example of this. Chinese Premier himself gave assurances to the Indian Prime Minister that China will not obstruct India's entry in the Nuclear Supplier's Group but it did exactly that. Instead of being in the forefront, China aligned itself with countries that were opposing India's entry into the NSG by playing an active role inside the room with these dissenting nations. When Indian PM tried calling up the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao - Jiabao refused to take the call - such was the audacity. It was only when George Bush telephoned the Chinese Premier, that China relented.

While an all out war with China is a very remote possibility,more so to do with Himalayas and geography (as opposed to history), however there are clear Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 of possible local "war" with China.

Alarmingly, according to a report sent to National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, the incursions tally has increased to 213 incidents, up from 170 reported last year. While the Chinese continue to maintain an aggressive posture, India’s diplomatic response has been weak and tardy, which is certainly not the way an aspiring power behaves.”

The Chinese foreign ministry recently challenged external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee's claim that Arunachal is an integral part of India. Foreign Minister Qin said that Mukherjee's statement was contrary to historical facts as China does not accept the MacMohan Line and the border between the two nations has not yet been demarcated.


McMahon Line : The McMahon line runs through the eastern Himalayas and constitutes a psychological border between India and China. Drawn up and agreed to during by British India and Manchu China, its subsequent repudiation by China made it the major irritant plaguing the relations the two countries. Sir Henry McMahon, British India’s foreign secretary, drew this 1,360km border on a map at the 1914 Simla Convention attended by British, Tibetan and Chinese delegates, thereby adding 129,500 sq km to India. Though Mr Chen I-fan, the Chinese representative, initialled the map, his government disavowed it. China has never recognised the McMahon Line.

Chinese duplicity is its stock foreign policy. For example China’s stance on India’s annexation of Sikkim: the Chinese government did not accept India’s annexation of Sikkim for over two decades in spite of the fact that Sikkim was nowhere near the McMahon line which China first accepted and then unilaterally repudiated.



Bhutan incursions: There is a deep-seated fear in Indian defense circles that Chinese troop movements in Bhutan near the strategic Chumbi Valley are dangerously close to the Siliguri Corridor, aka India's chicken neck, which separates India proper from its restive northeast and is a mere 13 miles to 25 miles wide, making India extremely vulnerable to a territorial cutoff. A Chinese move into Dolam means that India’s border with China gets distorted at Sikkim’s tri-point with Bhutan. It also means that Chinese forces move a few kilometres south from where they originally were. It brings them closer to North Bengal’s Siliguri Corridor. China has always laid claim to Dolam. There is a suspicion that it has now extended its claim line.

TIBET:

Through out the brief history of territorial dispute between India and China, India chose to be on the defensive side for all the wrong reasons. India failed to use the ‘Tibet card’ as a bargaining chip in the territorial negotiation with China. China knows it very well that India would not dare raise the issue of Tibet either on international plate form or in bilateral talks. The Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh was based on the history of Tibet, not on Chinese history. Historically Tibet owned the large territories of present day Arunachal Pradesh, especially the Tawang district. However, India on the other hand also has a historically attested reason to claim over Arunachal Prasesh. Ironically it is also based on Tibetan history.

With the demise of the Manchu dynasty in China in 1912, the Thirteenth Dalai lama drove out the Ambans, the Manchu emperor’s representatives in Tibet and their security forces out of Tibet and declared Tibet as an independent sovereign nation.


ARUNACHAL PRADESH:

In 1914 British tried to mediate a negotiation between Tibet and China to settle the political status of Tibet and territorial dispute between Tibet and China. China declined to sign the treaty. With a failure to resolve Sino-Tibet dispute, British decided to settle the Indo-Tibet border directly with Tibet. On July 3rd 1914 the British foreign secretary Sir Henry McMohan and the Tibetan government representative Lonchen Shatra signed the Simla Convention. They accepted the McMohan Line, which accorded Tawang to British India, as an officially accepted boundary between the two nations. The actual map showing the McMohan Line as a boundary between Tibet and India was published by Survey of India in 1937. In 1954 India officially called the territories accorded to her side of the McMohan Line NEFA- North East Frontier Agency. To consolidate her claim over NEFA, in 1972 India gave it an Indian name, Arunachal Pradesh, which remained a Union Territory of the Central Government of India until 1987. In 1987 Arunachal Pradesh formally became an Indian state.

AGGRESSIVE DIPLOMACY:

India must be aggressive diplomatically with a fresh and more insightful foreign policy in dealing with China. The best card India can use to bargain with China is Tibet. Nothing perturbs China diplomatically more than Tibet and Tibet is not a dead issue yet. India is a host nation to Tibetan government in Exile and home to the Dalai Lama, accepted leader of the Tibetan people inside and outside Tibet. With India’s initiative more and more countries will come forward to join India to raise Tibet on the international platform. Hollywood is smitten with Tibet - need to bring it to realistic levels to choke CHINA.

BACK TO 1962: Nehru was smitten into the "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" concept. The Govt of India, with Krishna Menon as Defence Minister, was least interested in defence preparedness - he and Nehru refused to believe that China is an enemy. Ordnance factories were manufacturing coffee percolators and toasters, because they had “extra spare capacity”. (CAN YOU IMAGINE THIS - COFFEE PERCOLATORS AND TOASTERS AND NOT AMMUNITION).

AGGRESSIVE POSTURING:


Look at the population map of China above. See how sparsely it is populated around Tibetian region. The Chinese fear is this: If China were to withdraw from Tibet, and there were no military hindrance to population movement, Beijing fears this population could migrate into Tibet. If there were such a migration, Tibet could turn into an extension of India and, over time, become a potential beachhead for Indian power.

It is the Chinese fear that is forcing them to behave aggressively around their weakness. India should play around these Chinese fears and make it a reality for them.

8 steps :

1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)

2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done

3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening

4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.

5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims. Tibetians have a valid fear : that the Chinese have tried to alter the demographic balance of Tibet by settling Han Chinese there, that it wishes to assimilate the religious and cultural distinctiveness of Tibetan identity into a larger Chinese identity.

6. Give Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).

7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissension.

8. How can India take over Mt Kailash – ordained as a religious site in Indian Vedic texts, now in Tibet (China)? Well India will not, Tibet will. And Tibet being hostlile to China will lease or hand over the region to India. Hence India should start preparing the Tibetians for armed struggle against the Chinese. Tibet is the soft underbelly and a strong guirella force of 50,000 battle hardened (taken from ITBP and infiltrated back to China) would cause enough unrest. Simultaneously help mass uprisings in Chinese villages against mainland city centric China. India's goal should be Tibetian independence.


Chinese navy is today weaker than Japanese navy and of course the US Navy. However, in 15 years, Chinese navy will be a force to reckon with. Gwadar is a port in Pakistan that can base Chinese naval ships and play three roles:

i) safeguard Chinese oil shipment to mainland China,
ii) threaten Indian navy and mainland India and
iii) provide a security blanket around Pakistan.

Do we wait for this to play out and forever alter our dealings not only with China but also Pakistan? The clear answer = NO.

Ancient Indian thinkers produced two schools of war, diplomacy and interstate relations; the dharmayuddha (ethical warfare) school; and the kutayuddha (devious warfare) school. The two schools were, however, not mutually exclusive. Chanakya scores of Sun Tzu many times over.

Buddhism is India’s cultural gift to Tibet and China. We win nations through culture and that is our primary way. Kutayuddha as a means of last resort - with China we have come to that last resort !


FLAG OF INDEPENDENT TIBET.

THE GOAL IS : TIBETIAN INDEPENDENCE. ANYTHING LESS IS NOT IN INDIA’S LONG TERM INTERESTS.