MUMBAI ATTACKS - THE INDIAN HAND. WHAT NEXT?

There were SIM cards purchased locally, Mumbai college ID cards, recon etc all of which had to have local Indian contacts. Other than the known Dawood name – the name of Tauqir (Indian Mujahideen) is doing the rounds.

Syed Saleem Shahzad, reporting from Pakistan, is claiming that the Mumbai attacks relied on local Indian al Qaeda linked militant group – Indian Mujahideen specially Abdus Subhan Qureshi (Tauqir).

It seems Tauqir had “information” that the Jewish community centre that was attacked, was being used by Israeli intelligence services – Mossad. The killers used the most brutal method of killing the Israeli citizens.

What is alarming to learn is that Tauqir had planned other attacks on Indian strategic targets immediately after the Mumbai attack, but Kasab’s (the lone terrorist alive) arrest prevented this from going through.

The Russian intelligence, is however pointing out that DAWOOD IBRAHIM's network could have played a far bigger role than Tauqir's Indian Mujahideen.

The role of LeT (founded by ex- ISI men) is iron clad now that USA has enough signint to nail end to end connections that is being / has been provided to Pakistan - including names of trainers from ISI.

Of these, two names of LeT that are doing rounds for their “hands on” approach to the Mumbai attacks are :

1) Yusuf Muzammil – LeT’s controller from Lahore
2) Zaki – ur – Rahman – LeT’s operational commander

However, the role of a section of ISI and Pakistan Army’s role are being probed, as “proof” is pouring in. I had given 3 points in earlier post – which I am again posting here:

1. The external section of ISI which reported to DG – ISI routinely executed plans of Army General A Kiyani and trained a few dozen Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) militants near Mangla Dam (close to Islamabad). And guess what : PAKISTAN'S SSG COMMANDO UNIT IS BASED THERE. These Mumbai attackers were part of this group.

2. In a major reshuffle of ISI a couple of months back the Director of External wing was changed placing the "game" in the hands of a low level ISI forward section head (a major) and the LeT's commander in chief - ZAKIUR RAHMAN, aka Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi. Zakiur was personally in Karachi to oversee the operation. Zaikur and ISI’s forward section in Karachi approved of the plan under which more than 10 men took Mumbai hostage for nearly 3 days and successfully established a reign of terror.

3. The PNS Iqbal – a naval commando unit in Karachi – was the main outlet of militants to be given training and through deserted points they were launched into the Arabian sea and on into the Indian region of Gujarat.


Given that as discussed the over riding wish of the Pakistan Army is to run away from Afghanistan border as it wants to stop attacking Taliban, one needs to understand two things – a) who are these Taliban and b) why does Pakistan want to run away


The 100 or so groups that roam the tribal areas and are called “Taliban” and which have been loosely labelled as Good and Bad can be further bi-furcated into 4 groups (by Pakistan):

1. Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Omar (MO), Jalaluddin Haqqani (JH) and Gulbadin Hekmatyar (GH). These are all Afghans and none of them have ever declared war against Pakistan

2. The local “good Taliban” who were Pakistanis and had sympathies with Afghan Taliban but were not against the State of Pakistan and never wanted to fight the Pakistan army or the State. Peace deals were signed with Nek Muhemmed (killed in US airstrike) in south Waziristan, Mullah Nazir in south Waziristan and Haji Gul Bahadur in North Waziristan.

3. The “Bad Taliban”who were only fighting the State of Pakistan and not the U.S. inside Afghanistan. Baitullah Mehsud (BM), Mullah Fadlullah (MF) and Lal Masjid brigade fell in this category.

4. Fourth category of militants were local brigands, gangsters, criminals and highway men who were exploiting the local environment and made their own gangs in the name of Taliban but were neither fighting the Americans nor wished to face Pakistan army. They just harassed local population and fought sectarian wars within. Mangal Bagh near Peshawar is one such case to be noted.

Groups 1 & 2 are ISI assets – hence considered “good” by Pakistan.
Group 3 – not controlled by ISI – hence deemed “bad”

The good Taliban, as described by Pakistan are all waging a war against NATO / US forces in Afghanistan and is not attacking any assets in Pakistan.

The bad Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud's group, are waging a war against the state of Pakistan and not against NATO / US forces in Afghanistan.

And ISI controls the good Taliban. Which means ISI is orchestrating the so called “good Taliban” team of JH, GH & MO to fight the US / NATO forces. Therefore Pakistani Army is complicit in this. Pakistan, as usual is saying one thing (supporting the US/NATO initiative in Afghanistan) and doing exactly the opposite through its proxies.

A curious case of bombing is playing out in the Afghan border. Pakistan is bombing the bases of Baitullah Mehsud and carrying out no bombings in the bases of JH, GH and MO. Whereas USA is carrying out the bombing of Taliban aligned to ISI – bases of MO, GH & GH – much to the annoyance of Paksitan.

Hence, all categories of Taliban are very upset and angry with the state of Pakistan and Pakistan Army is facing a severe backlash in the tribal areas from Taliban. Taliban forces aligned to ISI are upset with Pakistan with the fact that Pakistan is unable to protect them from US drone attacks.

In fact the losses of Pakistan Army have been substantial and there were serious desertations from Paksitan Army on the grounds of “we will not fight fellow Muslims”.

Pakistan Army is faced with a civil war as well as serious loss of morale in the Army due its fight against the Taliban. All this is spiraling out of control, so much so, that Taliban is making inroads into Pakistan cities and not the other way around.

Talibans have penetrated Karachi, Islamabad and are entrenched in Peshawar and Quetta. In July 2008, the Taliban surrounded Peshawar and started bombing music stores and warned barbers against shaving their clients beards. They were pushed back by Pakistan Army, only to have come back strongly. No foreigner can move around in Peshawar without armed escort and even then there is no guarantee of life. American, Afghan and Chinese nationals have been abducted and killed. The civil society is petrified of them and the local police helpless, outgunned and out numbered.

In the days after Mumbai blasts, 60 people have been abducted from Peshawar by these militants – most of them were retired Army officers and relatives of ANP (leftist leaning party – which rules the province). In Karachi, during the Mumbai blasts an all out fight broke out between ANP and MQM supporters in which many were killed.

40 containers going to NATO were attacked and destroyed, in the middle of Peshawar.

Pakistan Army feels, if they carry on attacks and are unable to stop the US drones from attacking the Taliban who are aligned to it, it will face a civil war. It rapidly wishes to get out this war and in all likelihood executed the Mumbai blasts to heighten threat perception from India to achieve these exact objectives.

In these circumstances, Pakistan is even more helpless to act against LeT – if it does the threat of civil war inside Pakistan will be IMMEDIATE.

In non-taliban category falls Laskhar e Taiba (LeT) who are wholly supporters of the state of Pakistan and form the first line of defense for the country (as was its charter and rationale of ISI to form the group).


LeT which was banned morphed into Jamaatut Dawa. It’s chief Hafiz Md Saeed was in Sukkur, a city 363 kms north of the southern port city of Karachi and on Nov 26th was scheduled to travel to Karachi. But after the Mumbai attacks, he was urgently summoned to Rawalpindi, the garrison city to attend a high profile meeting held in the Office of Strategic Organization. He was told that Indian Air Force was on high alert and what plans does he have if India unleashed a war. Saeed assured that the LeT would be the first line of defense against the Indian navy in the Arabian sea through its marine operations, and that it would simultaneously escalate activities in India, specially in Kashmir. Most importantly he will advise militants to hold their fire in NWFP against the Pakistani forces.

Jamaatut Dawa (LeT) with its well defined vertical structure under the leadership of Hafeez Saeed could commit its several thousand members, virtually a para – military force to fight against INDIA (exactly as was planned by original ISI planners)

Pakistan can never crackdown on LeT. Cracking a whip of LeT will bring civil war into the bedrooms of Pakistan and there is no way Pakistan is even going to consider this.

All LeT militant training camps were deserted in the wake of impending Indian strikes.

News from NWFP – all militant groups who were against the state of Pakistan stated in case of war with India, they will cease all hostilities with the state of Pakistan and arrange for their mujahideens to fight India instead.

Music to the ears of Pakistan Army. As far as Pakistan Army was concerned – the attacks on Mumbai was the perfect crime.

However, while everything went according to plan, the arrest of the lone terrorist did not and this is playing out very badly against the Pakistani establishment.

Given that, an Indian attack, will directly play into the military objectives of Pakistani Army, the Indian state has taken the right step not to escalate tensions FOR NOW!

Pakistan, in all likelihood and as stated before, will “arrest” Hafeez Sayeed and put him under house arrest (with all plush facilities) – like it has done for another LeT personality – Dr A Q Khan. However, Hafeez Saeed will be given far greater latitude to interact with people than is being given to Dr Khan (as Dr Khan’s revelations of Pakistan state’s complicity in Nuclear Walmart will devastate Pakistan). There is absolutely NO QUESTION of Pakistan handing over Hafeez Sayeed over Mumbai blasts.

Other than the Pakistan angle for the blasts there is an Indian angle too. This deals with recruitment of future jehadis for LeT and Indian Mujahideen. The success of these blasts will be sold to them over and over again - our 10 mujadhids paralysed a city for 3 days and it took 1200 Indian force to subdue and look at the crores of damage they have done to Indian landmarks. Over and above monetary benefits, the glory of martyrdom and the dream of 72 virgins on arrival at paradise will be sold to them.

However, here is my question: WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS ANOTHER ATTACK OF SIMILAR / MORE MAGNITUDE IN INDIA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS / WEEKS?

Pakistan is militarily desperate to run away from its western borders and its coffers are nearly empty. If India remains cool – Pakistan Army might initiate a second attack to force India’s hand.

INDIA SHOULD WATCH OUT AND HAVE ESCALATION STRATEGIES IN PLACE.

Counter intelligence has to be at an all time high. The Dawood “business syndicate” in India should be closed down – a lot of politicians and police bosses will lose out on hefty month end payouts, but there is no alternative to this.

Indian Mujahideen cells to be located and destroyed. A look out for madrassa students passing out specially from Deobandi schools. All unregistered madrassas to be destroyed. No new madrassa to come up in India.

We may talk of Hindu – Muslim unity but I am making a claim here – Muslims coming out of Madrassas are not here for any unity. They are here to snatch what they FEEL this is their LEGITIMATE due. The madrassa teaching tells them HINDUS ARE YOUR ENEMIES - how can you expect them to merge? They will not merge and will not live under Uniform Civil Code. Hindus are expected to live under Islamic laws in their countries, under a unified law in developed countries - why two separate systems in INDIA? We exacerbate this divide by our "vote bank politics".

AN EXAMPLE : Kolkata airport needs upgradation but due to one single mosque near the runway – where only 30 people go to worship, this cannot be done. Why? Because our so called Muslim “friends” will not allow the mosque to shift. Read this Indian Express article on this issue.

Friendship and unity happens when the other side too takes out a hand to shake and not to slap.

While airports and western sea coasts are better protected today, the port of Kolkata is open to terrorist sneak ins including merchandise, specially from Bangladesh. The port of Kolkata, its handlers are all Dawood aide or aligned to Ansari or the myriad Muslim gangs making ingress easy. Corrupt police officers guarding the gates make a mockery of security arrangements.

Two months back a couple of us went inside the Kolkata port to meet the captain of a merchant vessel who happened to be a bro-in-law of a friend. When we were leaving, the Captain got expensive artefacts out of his ship – in our car which was driven inside to the port and parked near his ship. The merchandise was put in the boot of the car and all he paid was Rs 50 and a carton of cigarettes to the lone policeman. He just nodded us on – it was as easy as that.

Its time we fell in love with CCTVs and install them all over major cities, strategic infrastructures etc.

Set up an organization like NSA and install the best code breakers. Install top of line sigint that can even decode packets from VoiP, Sat phone conversations from Thuraya etc and any future enhancements in telecom sector globally.

What is more important is setting up poles on either side of roads, through which trucks pass – these poles can “sniff” radioactive / arms material in cargoes / containers. These poles should be put around port areas as well as international border points where container laden trucks move in and out. And this should be IMMEDIATE.

Police, our first line of offense, is the weakest link and we have to delink them from our even more corrupt politicians.

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IN THE END - A COUNTER VIEW: SINCE THE ULTIMATE USA NIGHTMARE SCENARIO IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PAKISTANI NUKES FALLING IN THE HANDS OF AL QAEDA - WE CAN MAKE THIS A REALITY BY ATTACKING PAKISTAN TODAY AND DESTABILIZING IT. USA STOPPED INDIA WHEN IT WAS GOING TO ATTACK PAK'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES. LET USA NOW DEAL WITH THE SITUATION - WHICH IT WILL WITH ALACRITY IF INDIA CHOOSES TO ATTACK PAKISTAN. :)

B. RAMAN (Cabinet Secy Retd) in his blog mentions the following and I quote him:

"The more the evidence we collected, the stronger the rejection---particularly from the US. Not sufficient enough. Does not directly implicate the Government of Pakistan. That was the stock reply we received repeatedly.

The US was interested only in protecting the lives and property of its citizens and in preventing another 9/11 in the US homeland from Pakistani territory. So long as Pakistan was co-operating with the US in action against Al Qaeda, the US closed its eyes and continues to close its eyes to Pakistani support for acts of jihadi terrorism directed against India.

We should stop demeaning ourselves as a nation by going to the Americans and others with evidence. I am shocked by suggestions that we should produce the evidence before the UN Security Council. I cannot think of a more naïve idea. It is as stupid as the advice given by the British to Jawaharlal Nehru to take the Kashmir issue to the UN Security Council with a promise that it would do justice by India.

The time for action against Pakistan has come. Action based on our conviction that the terrorists came from a Pakistani terrorist organization, which enjoys the patronage of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

STEP No.1: Downgrade the diplomatic relations with Pakistan

STEP No. 2: Revive immediately the covert action capability of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), which was wound up by Inder Gujral, when he was the Prime Minister in 1997, and empower it to impose prohibitive costs on Pakistan till it stops using jihadi terrorism against India.

A divided Pakistan, a bleeding Pakistan, a Pakistan ever on the verge of collapse without actually collapsing----that should be our objective till it stops using terrorism against India."

I AGREE SIR !!