Wednesday, January 7, 2009


Truth or deception is couched in many layers, but for simplicity, let us look at 5 layers. The Russian dolls best describe the situation India is facing today.

Level 1: The biggest structure looking down at us are the terrorist outfits / jehadis. They are not the brains - but are the foot soldiers to carry out a mission without question. Lashkar e Taiba, various factions of Taliban, Jaish e Mohammad etc form the first layer. Their leaders are akin to the "head" of the dolls. Think of these organizations as giving the "biggest bang for the buck" - hence they are the biggest doll that we see. Some of us think that "surgical" strikes against these "Level 1" actors will solve India's problems. Far from truth.

Level 2: ISI & Pakistan Army. They remain hidden behind Level 1 players but are the actual "brains" and "logistical arm". Al Qaeda moves in between Level 1 & 2, depending on the “country of attack”. For India, they are in Level 1 and subservient to ISI.

Level 3: Michael Vickers gets to occupy this slot. He is the “doer”. He brings in his vast resources to increase / decrease levels of insurgency in Pakistan / Afghanistan / Kashmir. He was the paymaster of the Afghan Mujahids during Soviet occupation and the major arms suppliers to covert groups for covert operations. He retains a first name basis relationship with many of these mujahids who are now in control of different factions of Taliban. As recently as Feb 2008, he was instrumental in “Doubling” the size of Pakistan SSG Commandos. His actions have a direct bearing in the region. If there is one man responsible for the defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan that led to its subsequent break up – it is Michael Vickers. Hence, this individual reserves the right to be included as an individual – though he brings with him his vast resources.(Note: The Pakistan terrorists were trained by SSG Commandos and (retd.) Major of SSG Alavi was shot dead last month because he was going to expose links of SSG Generals with Taliban.)

Level 4: This would comprise CIA / MI6 and a host of other myriad intelligence arms of Anglo-American empire. This level also embodies the different arms of the government of these countries. This includes NSA etc. These people formulate execution strategies that may /may not pass through Vickers. Current discussion on Viceroy’s Studies Group falls in this category. To complicate matters, there are intelligence agencies of Iran, Russia etc in the region whose aims and objectives run counter to the Ango-American ones, but they too end up cultivating “jehadi groups” to sow dissention or harm interests of Anglo – American empire in the region. Since they do not affect Indian interests “directly” – have not included them.

Level 5: The smallest doll but the most dangerous - the one who thinks “through” it all. Again these are a myriad of think tanks, uber secret groups. Let me just take one name – Bilderberg Group. These people are the “thinkers” who strategize a scenario which is future “win win” for the Anglo American empire. Once the scenario has been chalked out – the mission plan is handed down to Level 4 and then onwards.

Note: All this is not seamless and not all planning comes from Level 5. Also there are many important “players” outside the ambit of classification given above, but to maintain simplicity, they can be included in any of the 5 Levels mentioned above. (Eg: Crime / Drug syndicate of Dawood to help in logistics, gun running etc etc).

There are independent plans at Level 2 too which are carried out by Level 1, completely out of the ambit of Level 5 / Level 4.

Hence, when an operation happens in India by Level 1 player (eg: LeT), it is important for India to find out whether the planning originated at Level 2 (which is then localized and a local response will be enough) or did it originate at Level 4 or 5 (which would bind India’s arms – and India should then quickly ascertain the motive of Level 4 / 5 players).

Two players who are completely dependent and do not work alone are Level 1 & Level 3. None of these (Level 1 & Level 3) mount any “strategic” strikes without being given the “green signal” from Levels above it.

Taking out Level 1 (surgically or otherwise) will not matter as Level 2 will breed other clones to take place of lost Level 1 “foot soldiers”.

To solve India’s problem, Level 2 needs to be “eradicated” or its capabilities “seriously impaired”.

India does not have the leverage to deal, currently, with Levels 3, 4 and 5. However, India should be alert to the game plan of Level 4 & 5 and watch the “movements” of Level 3 (i.e.Vickers and his covert team). Any flurry of activity by Level 3 in the region will give a “whiff” of major action in the region. India must realize the game plan of Level 5 players only.

One of the major rationales for involvement of Level 5 in the region has been discussed in the Great Game. Level 5 wants Anglo American business empire to be entrenched in Central Asia and they are not budging from Afghanistan.

India needs to know whether the plans for Mumbai attacks originated at Level 2 or were it a Level 5 operation? Whether or not it was a Level 5 operation, does not “absolve” Levels 1 & 2 whose aim to dismember and maim India remains firm as ever.

Now, dismembering India is not in the interest of Levels 3,4 & 5. Keeping that in mind, we must get to see what is driving Level 4 / 5 (if they are involved) and if so why?

Part 2 will take off from here.


Anonymous said...

Very interesting analysis. Especially the Level 3 and Level 5 bit...Unsure if Michael Vickers can be solely attributed to Level 3, though you have written about his importance in your previous blogs . The Bilderberg Link was an interesting read - makes one think of the racy novel - The Whole Truth - by David Baldacci.
Hope India gets to track the truth soon enough...and then what?


Anonymous said...


Levels 3 to 5 has to help India if it needs to help itself. That is the "simple truth"



Firstly SM - Welcome back.

Secondly, the last thing I want is any of my "articles" to read like a racy novel - but if it does, then it is entirely my fault, and was not the intent.

Coming back to the point and I agree with you - Micheal Vickers cannot solely be attributed to Level 3 - but his "work" and his "organization" does.

ichael G. (“Mike”) Vickers was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict & Interdependent Capabilities) on July 23, 2007. He is the senior civilian advisor to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense on the capabilities and operational employment of special operations forces, strategic forces, and conventional forces. He is also the senior civilian advisor on counterterrorism strategy, irregular warfare, and force transformation.

Special Operations Command (SOCOM) which is part of the portfolio that Vickers handles is based in Tampa, FL. It's annual budget is US$ 8 BILLION and more than 60,000 covert and overt personnel are on its payroll. Vickers also sits on 3rd floor of Pentagon "C" Ring.


Vickers was the principal strategist for covert CIA operations in Afghanistan that resulted in the defeat, and subsequent break up of the Soviet Union. If there is one man who can be credited for the break up of Soviet empire - it is Vickers.

His greatest influence was in the precise way he reassessed the potential of Afghan guerrilla forces and prescribed the right mix of weaponry to attack Soviet weaknesses. (According to me, he is simply an asset of platinum class for any country to have - period.)

At the height of Afghan operation, he was giving strategic and operational direction to 300 unit commanders, 150,000 full time and 500,000 part time fighters ("mujahideens"). He co-ordinated the efforts of TEN countries and oversaw an annual budget of US $ 2 billion.

Ray Lightning said...

Indian apathy has to end

Innocent people are being murdered in Swat. The Pakistani army is acting in cohorts with the Taliban : a targeted massacre of educated and intelligent people is occuring. The very events before their eyes remind the Pashtuns of the Babrra massacre. No one is paying attention !

We Indians betrayed the Pashtuns during the partition, we cannot afford to do it again. The Mumbai attacks were clearly a ploy to divert attention from the murders in the western front of Pakistan. Who is behind this ? The Taliban ? The hardline Islamists ? The Al-Qaeda ? The Pak military strategists ?

It does’t matter. The war in Swat is India’s war.

Letter from Swat :

by Zubair Torwali

The main town of Swat, Mingora, has now virtually fallen to the militants. The police are escorted by army officials and come out from their ‘hide-outs’ only for a couple of hours. One of the busiest squares, Grain chowk, was renamed by the shopkeepers as ‘Khooni chowk’ because when they come to their shops in the morning on each day they find four or five dead bodies hung over the poles or the trees. They see dead bodies scattered along the foot path in the morning. The bodies are usually headless. The practice goes thus with an average of four deaths daily in the square. Similarly on each morning there are found bodies with their throats slit in Qambar, Kabal, Matta, Khawza Khela and Charbagh. This practice has been going on for weeks; and unfortunately does not seem to stop.

Jan 15 is the deadline set by the militants to close all schools, especially those of girls. As the deadline approaches people are getting more and more terrified. The government’s writ is all but absent. Nazims have been killed, women are not allowed to visit bazaars (which are deserted), NGOs have stopped working and children play a ‘Fauji Taliban’ game. The people live a miserable life in the cold. Most bridges have been damaged and beyond the main town phones have been dead for months. Most people live in darkness at night because the fighting has badly affected the power infrastructure as well.

Curfew is imposed constraining the people inside for days on end. And security forces personnel sometimes fire indiscriminately. The residents can do nothing – they cannot protest against the high-handedness of the military or stand up to the militants. The Taliban gain from strength to strength, partly aided by the use of FM radio. Various checkposts set up by the security forces seem to be no little use. Scores of militants entered Kalam last week in spite of six checkposts set up from from Bagh Dahri to Bahrain. It is quite clear that for now the victors in the war are the Taliban – and the losers the people of Swat.

But who cares about that in the rest of the country. The government seems too busy dealing with the aftermath of the Mumbai carnage. That said, the predicament of the people of Swat is worse than even of the people of Gaza. In Gaza the enemy is well known but in Swat the people know not who the enemy is and whom to hold responsible.

The civil society of any country is regarded as a great force to mobilize the general public against the violation of civil rights and liberty. It is considered as a bulwark against the violation of human rights. It is deemed as the upholder of people’s rights where the state fails to deliver. Its mettle was tested in the lawyers’ movement but we in Swat wonder why it is silent now? We hear no voice raise against the atrocities committed in Swat. No civil society organization has its voice against the plight of the women and children in Swat. We have not seen a single demonstration in the big cities against the monster of militancy in Swat, or in FATA for that matter. The media also seems apathetic about the plight. The print media does well to some extent but their scope is limited.

The people of Swat ask you to come out on their behalf and mobilize the general public against the war tearing the valley. We implore you to come out of your drawing rooms and stage protests so that the government does something about our plight.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Shocking news this..about the atrocities in Swat. The general public in India isn't even aware of it..


Anonymous said...

@RAY - Why and how did we Indians betray the Pashtuns during partition.

Frontier "Gandhi" -the current ANP are its descendants - are a faction of Pashtuns and I am sure you are speaking of Pashtuns as a whole.

Pls clarify. Thanks

Ray Lightning said...


Indians have forced the Pashtuns to agree to a referendum where the only options given were (a) India (b) Pakistan. There was no logical choice of joining Afghanistan, or the choice of being independent.

Bacha Khan and his followers (the major political force in the valley) absconded the vote saying the referendum is meaningless. There were only 10 people who voted, of which 9 chose Pakistan. So NWFP became a part of Pakistan. But no Afghan government has yet recognized the Durand Line. Pakistan has a strategic interest in keeping Afghanistan unstable and keeping the Pashtun nationalism under check.

Indians had too many problems in their own country to pay attention to what's going on in NWFP. In the Babrra massacre, 1400 unarmed Pashtuns were murdered under state orders. The khudai khidmatgar movement was violently suppressed. The Pak government (army) has a long history of supporting violent Islamists. The Taliban are a continuation of this policy.

Taliban have no populist support in the Pashtun regions. The recent elections in both NWFP and Afghanistan are won by secular and democratic parties. The war being waged in Pashtun regions is India's war. It is time India ended its apathy.

Ray Lightning said...

About NWFP vote, there were 500,000 people present in the electoral college of which 51% voted. The result was in favor of Pakistan 9:1. This was neither a vote decided by the provincial government nor a true populist vote.

Anonymous said...

Ray : Interesting and valid points...thanks for this update.