Wednesday, January 7, 2009
MUMBAI ATTACKS : PEELING 5 LAYERS - PART 1 of 2
Truth or deception is couched in many layers, but for simplicity, let us look at 5 layers. The Russian dolls best describe the situation India is facing today.
Level 1: The biggest structure looking down at us are the terrorist outfits / jehadis. They are not the brains - but are the foot soldiers to carry out a mission without question. Lashkar e Taiba, various factions of Taliban, Jaish e Mohammad etc form the first layer. Their leaders are akin to the "head" of the dolls. Think of these organizations as giving the "biggest bang for the buck" - hence they are the biggest doll that we see. Some of us think that "surgical" strikes against these "Level 1" actors will solve India's problems. Far from truth.
Level 2: ISI & Pakistan Army. They remain hidden behind Level 1 players but are the actual "brains" and "logistical arm". Al Qaeda moves in between Level 1 & 2, depending on the “country of attack”. For India, they are in Level 1 and subservient to ISI.
Level 3: Michael Vickers gets to occupy this slot. He is the “doer”. He brings in his vast resources to increase / decrease levels of insurgency in Pakistan / Afghanistan / Kashmir. He was the paymaster of the Afghan Mujahids during Soviet occupation and the major arms suppliers to covert groups for covert operations. He retains a first name basis relationship with many of these mujahids who are now in control of different factions of Taliban. As recently as Feb 2008, he was instrumental in “Doubling” the size of Pakistan SSG Commandos. His actions have a direct bearing in the region. If there is one man responsible for the defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan that led to its subsequent break up – it is Michael Vickers. Hence, this individual reserves the right to be included as an individual – though he brings with him his vast resources.(Note: The Pakistan terrorists were trained by SSG Commandos and (retd.) Major of SSG Alavi was shot dead last month because he was going to expose links of SSG Generals with Taliban.)
Level 4: This would comprise CIA / MI6 and a host of other myriad intelligence arms of Anglo-American empire. This level also embodies the different arms of the government of these countries. This includes NSA etc. These people formulate execution strategies that may /may not pass through Vickers. Current discussion on Viceroy’s Studies Group falls in this category. To complicate matters, there are intelligence agencies of Iran, Russia etc in the region whose aims and objectives run counter to the Ango-American ones, but they too end up cultivating “jehadi groups” to sow dissention or harm interests of Anglo – American empire in the region. Since they do not affect Indian interests “directly” – have not included them.
Level 5: The smallest doll but the most dangerous - the one who thinks “through” it all. Again these are a myriad of think tanks, uber secret groups. Let me just take one name – Bilderberg Group. These people are the “thinkers” who strategize a scenario which is future “win win” for the Anglo American empire. Once the scenario has been chalked out – the mission plan is handed down to Level 4 and then onwards.
Note: All this is not seamless and not all planning comes from Level 5. Also there are many important “players” outside the ambit of classification given above, but to maintain simplicity, they can be included in any of the 5 Levels mentioned above. (Eg: Crime / Drug syndicate of Dawood to help in logistics, gun running etc etc).
There are independent plans at Level 2 too which are carried out by Level 1, completely out of the ambit of Level 5 / Level 4.
Hence, when an operation happens in India by Level 1 player (eg: LeT), it is important for India to find out whether the planning originated at Level 2 (which is then localized and a local response will be enough) or did it originate at Level 4 or 5 (which would bind India’s arms – and India should then quickly ascertain the motive of Level 4 / 5 players).
Two players who are completely dependent and do not work alone are Level 1 & Level 3. None of these (Level 1 & Level 3) mount any “strategic” strikes without being given the “green signal” from Levels above it.
Taking out Level 1 (surgically or otherwise) will not matter as Level 2 will breed other clones to take place of lost Level 1 “foot soldiers”.
To solve India’s problem, Level 2 needs to be “eradicated” or its capabilities “seriously impaired”.
India does not have the leverage to deal, currently, with Levels 3, 4 and 5. However, India should be alert to the game plan of Level 4 & 5 and watch the “movements” of Level 3 (i.e.Vickers and his covert team). Any flurry of activity by Level 3 in the region will give a “whiff” of major action in the region. India must realize the game plan of Level 5 players only.
One of the major rationales for involvement of Level 5 in the region has been discussed in the Great Game. Level 5 wants Anglo American business empire to be entrenched in Central Asia and they are not budging from Afghanistan.
India needs to know whether the plans for Mumbai attacks originated at Level 2 or were it a Level 5 operation? Whether or not it was a Level 5 operation, does not “absolve” Levels 1 & 2 whose aim to dismember and maim India remains firm as ever.
Now, dismembering India is not in the interest of Levels 3,4 & 5. Keeping that in mind, we must get to see what is driving Level 4 / 5 (if they are involved) and if so why?
Part 2 will take off from here.