Thursday, January 8, 2009

MUMBAI ATTACKS : PEELING 5 LAYERS - PART 2 OF 2.

Level 5: Bilderberg Group represents the Anglo American empire (AAE). By empire it means mostly "business empire".

People who are intellectually challenged fall prey to conspiracy theories and go for overkill about alleged “we will take control of the world” theories that these secret groups supposedly espouse.

To them I will tell only this: They (incl. people in Bilderberg) are a bunch of royalty, entrepreneurs, businessmen and spymasters who would like to see their monopolistic business interests make super-profit unhindered by exploiting lacunas present in an imperfect world by using their reach, clout and financial dexterity. Occasionally they do indulge in ruthless business “malpractices” including toppling of governments to get “the” deal - and "keep the world a safe place (especially for them).

FACTS::


THE BILDERBERG MEETING


BILDERBERG HOTEL IN NETHERLANDS - WHERE THE GROUP FIRST MET, HENCE DERIVED ITS NAME.

The Bilderberg Group began in the year 1954 as a small network of the high and mighty in Europe and North America who met to discuss the state of the relations between Europe and the US and promote trans-Atlantic cooperation. Joseph Retinger, a Polish political advisor, émigré and founder of the European Movement took the lead in proposing an international conference to promote trans-Atlantic Cooperation. Some of the other leading personalities who supported Retinger included Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands, the then Belgian Prime Minister Paul Van Zeeland, and the head of Unilever at that time, Paul Rijkens. Some of the serial attendees to this annual meet are: Carl Bildt, Philip D Zelikow, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Madeline Albright, Condolizza Rice, etc.

Example of how the system works: Madeline Albright, a Jew who converted to a Catholic to evade Nazi persecution knew Condoleeza Rice from her early days in Denver. Condi Rice was Madeline Albright’s father’s favourite pupil. In early 90’s Chevron was involved in a $10 billion oil field development project in Kazakhstan. Condi knew the President of Kazakhstan well. Albright and Shultz who were Bilderberg members, put forward the candidacy of Condi Rice in the board of Chevron (Shultz was already a Chevron board member). Shultz said that the Chairman & CEO of Chevron "inside of fifteen minutes concluded that Condi Rice would make a terrific board member." She was a good choice. Condi joined the board and traveled to Kazakhstan for Chevron in 1992. She turned thirty-eight years old that year. In the following year Chevron named a 129,000-ton supertanker the SS Condoleezza Rice.

That is how the system works – nothing “uber secret” about guarding “greed”.

The US – European business nexus got itself a military connotation by the creation of NATO to protect the business interests. The reconstruction of Europe at the end of WW II helped US come out of “Depression”. The Marshall Plan (from its enactment, officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was the primary plan of the United States for rebuilding and creating a stronger foundation for the countries of Western Europe, and repelling communism (RUSSIAN influence) after World War II.



There are conspiracy theories in the net - RAND Corporation (where Shultz & Bildt are Bilderberg representatives + Carlyle Group) has stated US needs a WW III to come out of the present recession - however I will request to read this with a pinch of salt.

Level 4: Also a few after after the end of WW II – India got independence from the British but the British divided up the country before moving out. The British wanted two things out of it:

1) They wanted a weak nation (Pakistan, that is), which would depend on Britain for its defense.
2) they wanted that newly-formed weak nation (aka PAKISTAN) to border the oil wells of Central Asia (part of the Soviet Union, then) and to be close to the Muslim-majority, oil-rich nations of the Middle East.

Corollary to the objective was that India, the larger of the two nations then in the subcontinent (now, with the emergence of Bangladesh in 1972, the subcontinent has three nations) must not have any common border with either Afghanistan (the buffer state) or the Soviet Union.Hence, Kashmir state must not go to India in its original form to INDIA and at best, status quo can be maintained.

The British objective to control the oil wells was part of the Great Game to prevent the mighty Russian empire from having access to the oil fields. Former British Governor of the NorthWest Frontier Province during the British Raj days, Sir Olaf Caroe used to say the shadow of the north (meaning: RUSSIA) must not extend over the wells of power. (The Objectives have not changed, hence we look at their genesis)

Cut to the present: At the end of the first Gulf War in 1991, 55 percent of the 20 largest companies in the energy industry by market capitalization were American, and 45 percent were European, according to the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. study.

But in 2007, 35 percent of the 20 largest energy companies are from BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, about 35 percent are European, and about 30 percent are American, the study said.

According to predictions by a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC )’s head of macroeconomics, John Hawsworth report, the size of India's economy would swell to 90 per cent of that of the US by 2050, while China would be even larger than the US economy, having overtaken it as the largest economy in the world in around 2025.

The above statements were made prior to the US economy tanking. With the current unprecedented economic crisis facing the US and Europe, the real gap of the economy between US vs China and India has shrunk. Though both Chinese and Indian economy have been hit by the global winds of recession, they have not been hurt to the extent the AAE has been hurt. Which means, the Chinese economy may already have inched closer to US economy and India may do so in the next 10 – 15 years.

This is the bleak economic scenario facing the stalwarts of the Anglo American Empire (AAE) who need to protect their turf and business at “all costs”. Amongst the crème de la crème who mirror the interests of this AAE – Bilderberg group takes the cake. It is not an uber secret group like the Illuminati (the respected newsmagazine The Economist says Illuminati exists till date) but it is clearly very powerful.

The security scenario facing the AAE presents it with an unique opportunity. The British, being past masters at espionage and diplomacy, managed to cull out the next big thing for the 21st century by 19th century and given a scientific basis in 1942 via Viceroy’s Study Group - control of oil wells at Central Asia. The US took over from Britain as the military, technical and financial wealth of US soared far above UK post WW II.


MICHAEL VICKERS

We have covered the role of US & Vickers in arming and financing the mujahideens in Afghanistan to drive away the Soviet Union and break it up (Sir Olaf Caroe’s vision of 1942 fructified).

UK’s second vision was to ensure that India did not get a common border with Afghanistan, hence arming and abetteting terror groups like Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) were encouraged by AAE, to create mayhem in Kashmir and keep India tied up. The American vision was also to keep the Chinese and Russians away and they played one against the other, already covered in the Great Game 2 & Ultimate Game 3.

Unfortunately for AAE, the security scenario did not exactly work out the way it wanted to be. It wanted Map 1, the failure of it resulted in revisiting and reinventing Map 2, but what confronts it today is Map 3.

MAP 1.

Genesis of Map 1: Revisiting the UK plan to create Pakistan – so that this new “small” largely Muslim country will be subservient to UK for defense and in return Pakistan will given UK a staging ground to be close to the oil wells of Central Asia (part of the Soviet Union, then) and to be close to the Muslim-majority, oil-rich nations of the Middle East. Pakistan proved to be an able ally of AAE in ousting Soviet Union from Afghanistan.

The US helped ISI prop up Taliban in Afghanistan. The then US Assistant Secy of State for South Asian Affairs, ROBIN RAPHAEL went on to state – “The Taliban capture of Kabul is a POSITIVE STEP.”

On December 4th 1997, the representatives of Taliban were invited guests at the Texas headquarters of UNOCAL to negotiate support for the pipeline.

However in the 1990s, the overall US vision differed from UK vision for the region. US thought Iraq would be the best place to set up a base and run both the Central Asian gas as well as Middle East oil from there. The US abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets left, but the British did not.

Level 4 continues: CIA / MI6 / SAS covert team worked in tandem with ISI to send “terrorist” from Jaish e Mohammad, Lashkar e Taiba, Moro Liberation Front to Chenchneya, Dagestan, Kosovo, Bosnia.

KSA intelligence infiltrated LeT and lent an opening to CIA to run “assets” for its operations. For all this, the AAE gave ISI a free hand to have “fun” in Kashmir. Given, that their partnership with Pakistan was bearing fruit, notwithstanding irritants, the AAE dreamt of controlling the oil wells of Central Asia and Middle East through a unified country to be called the United States of Islam, largely militarily run by Pakistan. Pakistan was encouraged to send in Taliban to take control of Afghanistan as long as the AAE got to construct UNOCAL pipelines to transport Central Asian gas through Afghanistan to warm water ports of Karachi. ISI liked Map 1 too – it was closer to its dream of establishing an Islamic Caliphate.

ZELIKOW AND THE 9/11 COVER-UP:


ZELIKOW & RICE : Co-authors

Important characters of Bilderberg were present in 9/11 commission and primary among them was Philip D Zelikow. With the ISI – CIA relationship being kosher, Zelikow and his team buried the ISI link to 9/11 after Pakistan paid off the members. ZELIKOW even wrote that the US should be embedded in Iraq post 9/11. Read the full article by clicking here.

In fact I am sure that comparing 9/11 to Operation Northwoods is mere "speculation" and that Carlyle group,CalPers etc made immense profit post 9/11 (and these are entrenched players in Bilerberg group) is mere "coincidence". (Request- read these links)

Level 2: However, minor irritants were creeping in. Paksitan and ISI started acting on their own, away from the wishes of its masters in the AAE.

In Bosnia, CIA used ISI help in sending “jedhais” to fight the Russian backed Serbs. However, without informing the US, Pakistan used military planes to airlift sophisticated anti-tank guided missiles and this forced the Serbs to life the siege, much to the annoyance of the US government.

So incensed was the then US President Bill Clinton that he threatened to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan will be declared a TERRORIST STATE if Sharif did not remove Javed Nisar from top post of ISI. Which Sharif did and averted his nation from being called a Terrorist State.

MAP 2.

Many such incidents, including AQ Khan's nuclear Walmart, made the AAE and its military backers realize that Pakistan was running a different agenda and hoodwinking the interests of AAE. This gave rise to Map 2 which divided up Pakistan along ethnic lines. Baluchistan was an independent country in the 19th century. Pakistan which saw dreams of running Islamic Caliphate envisioned in Map1 suddenly saw its fate as a weak fledgling nation captured in neo-con Map 2. The AAE were not at all happy with Pakistan and they were not going to give up business interests in Central Asian region and see the return of the Russian bear once again. To top it, newer gas fields were being discovered and with the discovery of Yolotan Osman gas reserves in Turkmenistan that was outside the business agreement that Turkmenistan had with Russia, gave AAE immense leverage and rationale to stay put in Afghanistan. Pakistan became important only as a transit route to feed NATO / US forces in Afghanistan. With US now implementing a new route bypassing Pakistan, the importance of Pakistan will come down tremendously.

Pakistan, looking at this, has looked at China to couter the US moves. Pakistan has responded by doing three things:

1. Used its contacts in Afghan Taliban cells of Haqqani, Hekmatyar and Omar to launch assaults in Afghanistan on NATO – to ensure speedy “departure” of these forces.
2. Tried disrupting NATO supplies from its soil from time to time – which will logistically hurt the forces in absence of an alternative supply line currently
3. Opened up Gwadar port in Pakistan in collaboration with China – thus giving Chinese Navy a future berthing facility in Indian Ocean - a scenario not at all welcomed by US & India


MAP 3.

The US wanted to operationalize plans to activate plans to make the Map 2 a reality – however a Map 3 has been thrust in its face. Large tracts of land in between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been captured by Taliban. This poses a serious threat to the plans to AAE.

Pakistan is aware of Map 2 and neo-con plans of US. It has countered by embedding its soldiers with Taliban and other terror groups. This has made Pakistan's western borders impregnable - the hostile terrain adding to the difficulty. Without Pakistan's help, one cannot mount ground operations in this area and win. With Map 3, Pakistan hopes to increase its bargaining powers with the AAE.

The blast of Indian Embassy in Afghanistan was a plan originating from Level 2 – ie ISI and done by Level 1 actors aligned with the Haqqani groups. This was done to damage the India – AAE nexus from growing as Pakistan saw its “importance” being eroded away. India + AAE nexus seriously threatens Pakistan.

Pakistan had to be stopped before it hurt the AAE any more and for that India was chosen to counter balance. India has come a long way from being a Soviet proxy to being embedded with the interests of the AAE – at least that is what Americans would like to believe.

The Mumbai attacks of 26/11 opens up the door for an Indian military intervention in Pakistan. The more help the FBI gives, the more India is cornered into militarily attacking Pakistan.

(Taken from Ultimate Game 3 of 3)
AAE / Vickers / ISI / LeT/ Mumbai attacks – is there a connection then?

Level 3 + Level 1: Vickers - In August 2007 a representative of the jihadi outfit - a burly man in mid thirties with medium-length, thick beard met an American in Sadabahar who was dressed like a Pushtun (covert ops for sure). The meeting lasted more than three hours and the jihadi left with a canvas bag full of cash.

The American could not be identified but the jihadi was traced to a splinter group of LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba). As is known, LeT is not a single entity; it is more like a brand name, used by many groups with diverse objectives and split loyalties.

The jihadi went to Karachi and met a colleague in Shah Faisal Colony and apparently gave him some of the cash he received from the American in Quetta. This assumption is based on the fact that the jihadi’s colleague in Shah Faisal Colony purchased a flashy SUV a few days later. And Benazir Bhutto was assassinated a few months later (direct connection not established that it was this money that was used, but people in the know state that this is so).

Again, this LeT is involved in the Mumbai blasts. Let us look at LeT from a different angle.

In 1988, Abu Abdur Rahman Sareehi, a Saudi and a deputy of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, founded an organization in the Afghan Kunar Valley which recruited Afghan youths and Pakistanis in Bajaur Agency to fight the Soviets. Sareehi was the brother-in-law of Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi, (ALLEGED MASTERMIND OF MUMBAI 26/11 ATTACKS) now named by the US Treasury and the Security Council as chief of operations for the LeT. Seed money for the training camps was provided by Bin Laden.

BAHAZIQ A SAUDI INTELLIGENCE PROXY:

Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed Bahaziq, (described by the US Treasury as the main LET financier in the 1980s and 1990s and now named by the Security Council as a terrorist) was a Saudi intelligence proxy planted in the network. 



He built up his influence in the network with Saudi money and eventually established Markaz Dawa wal Irshaad. The name related to a renowned Saudi office for preaching Islam.

MARKAZ HIJACKED BY KSA INTELLIGENCE AND CIA:

This organization was then COMPLETELY HIJACKED by Saudi intelligence and the CIA and later operated under the name Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). (Very very important point to be Noted)

CIA and Pakistan establishment never went after LeT - as LeT never attacked Pakistan and any US interests. The ban on LeT was laughable at best.

After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US, it renamed itself Jamaatut Dawa and clearly distanced itself from al-Qaeda.

The above statements are all facts. There is a connection of LeT to CIA & Saudi intelligence. There is a connection of LeT to Mumbai blasts. LeT was infiltrated by the CIA and RSA (Saudi) intelligence. What can this mean?

The 10 terrorists that attacked Mumbai were supposed to go to Kashmir. The ISI forward station head in Karachi and Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi changed their destination to Mumbai. Why was this done and under whose orders?


MAP 2 (Neo-Con map).

Benefits of bifurcating Pakistan: From American point of view, there are many benefits in creating an independent Balochistan:

1.An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

2.Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean.

3.An independent Balochistan will be the place from where Americans can maintain permanent pressure on Iran, even in the remote possibility that they may have to eventually leave Iraq.

4.China and Russia will be denied any access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.

5.The Gulf countries will remain dependent on the USA for export routes of their hydrocarbon products.

6.Full control of the entrance to the Gulf will enable USA to allow or deny oil flow by tankers to any country in the world.

7.Central Asia is a land-locked region and the whole region would be on the mercy of the United States.

If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, the rest of Pakistan is likely to exist as a perpetually unstable entity, creating a permanent source of trouble for India. This fits nicely with other American plans because India has come very close to becoming an economic rival of the United States.


Also:

1. One logical consequence is that India and Pakistan would probably go to war or at least move their forces to the borders in a position of war readiness. Every expert knows that keeping forces ready for war is nearly seven to eight times more expensive than keeping them in the barracks. This is an excellent way to make sure that Indian and Pakistani economies would be crippled for a long time to come.

2. India and Pakistan are negotiating for two gas pipelines, one from Iran and the other from Turkmenistan. There are also plans to put oil pipelines from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to South Asia. USA would use every method to deny India the energy resources of Central Asia and IranIndia is not what USA has in mind. The tide has reversed already and it is not to the liking of the Americans. Students from the United States are now coming to India, Indian businessmen are giving tough time to American corporations worldwide, and India has entered some of the export markets that were traditionally dominated by the west. In short, a weak India will be acceptable as a friend but a strong India will be a pain in the neck for Americans.



Bill Kristol, a Fox Television commentator and arch American neoconservative revealed recently what many had long suspected was US thinking about the current international situation.

Kristol recounts that in a 90-minute, mostly off-the-record meeting with a small group of journalists in early July, President Bush “conveyed the following impression, that he thought the next president's biggest challenge would not be Iraq, which he thinks he'll leave in pretty good shape, and would not be Afghanistan, which is manageable by itself… It’s Pakistan.” We have “a sort of friendly government that sort of cooperates and sort of doesn’t. It's really a complicated and difficult situation.” Right on cue, presidential candidate Barack Obama took the baton from Bush in his speech on July 15, in which he argued that more focus and resource were required on both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US would like Iraq to be ‘stable’ but not too stable, ‘independent’ but not too independent, have an ‘effective’ military but not too effective.

=======================================
BuA analysis:

The AAE agenda looks like:

1. Break up Pakistan as per Map 2, essentially grab Baluchistan and take control of Gwadar.
2. Requires Indian help to deliver Map 2
3. Stage an attack on India by Level 1 (LeT) Pakistan actor and show complicity of “State actors” of Level 2 (ISI). Give all intelligence help and intercept details to India to tie up the case.
4. India to militarily defeat Pakistan and make it weak. Probable US / Israel help
5. Ensure India does not make a massive win or grab territories that will make it redraw boundaries and be next to Afghanistan.
6. To ensure above, AAE to militarily help Pakistan with weapons to counter India.
7. The AAE would like INDIA to be ‘stable’ but not too stable, ‘independent’ but not too independent, have an ‘effective’ military but not too effective.
8. Ensure India becomes economically weaker so that it does not overtake the AAE empire anytime soon, yet be an effective counter to China’s ambitions in the region
9. Ensure that the smaller "Pakistan" remains firmly with AAE and does not become a Chinese satellite.


The Pakistan agenda: (agenda within the AAE agenda) Other than the agenda of cutting India with a thousand wounds and dismembering India, Pakistan Army had compelling reasons of ingress and egress :

1. INGRESS : Attack on Indian Parliament on 13th December 2001 - By racheting up tensions and deploying its forces on the Indian border, Pakistan left its western borders open - ostensibly to draw in its soldiers and Taliban militants that got trapped in Afghanistan post 9/11 surge by Northern Alliance. Not all soldiers could be evacuated in Kunduz.

2. EGRESS: Attack on Mumbai on 26th November 2008 - By racheting up tensions and deploying its forces on the Indian border, Pakistan hopes to replicate the Dec 13th scenario and keep its western borders "relatively open". This time to facilitate sending across the Taliban and embedded Pakistan soldiers under the guise of Taliban to attack NATO / ISAF forces in Afghanistan.

Neo-con vision which is reflected in Map 2 is only a vision and while "forces" are moving from various angles to make it a reality, this is not a guarantee. Pakistan Army, the custodian of the "idea" of Pakistan along with its "Islamist cadres and terrorist groups" have everything to lose if this Map 2 comes about and have in their own way gone about increasing the "variables" to make the "probability of success for the AAE" difficult.

TWO VARIABLES AND CURIOUS CASE OF TIMING:

1. KARGIL WAR was foisted by Pakistan Army after the civilian government in Pakistan moved ahead with peace plans with India.

2. MUMBAI terror was foisted by Pakistan Army (at least as the end of the chain of command - coordinator), after President of Pakistan Zardari stated "no use of nuclear weapons in war doctrine".


Internally, Pakistan Army is "slowly" killing off traces of AAE as cleanly as possible. Balusa is a group that is involved in Track II Diplomacy to bring peace in India & Pakistan - hence an anathema to Pakistan Army which owes its importance and sustenance on the aura of "hostility" between the two nations. Pakistan was was due on Thursday (8th Jan 2009) to launch a crackdown against the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other jihadi organizations. But the operation, which was to be coordinated by the Ministry of Interior, police and the Intelligence Bureau, was halted at the 11th hour by the Pakistani military establishment. And instead, powerful National Security Advisor retired Major General Mahmood Durrani was fired. Incidentally, Durrani is a member of Balusa.

Clipping the wings of ISI has been a main agenda of AAE for some time now. Durrani had a close rapport with American decision-makers on South Asian affairs and had been involved in backchannel American-sponsored efforts on disputed Kashmir and on Afghanistan. He was for a time Pakistan's ambassador in Washington. After the Mumbai attack, a move was made to establish a National Intelligence Authority as a counterweight to the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence, which has consistently been accused of dragging its feet in the "war on terror". A Pakistani professor at Harvard, who used to work as Zardari's staff officer and once was in the police service, was suggested to head this new body, but on the military's intervention the scheme was shelved.

Provincial Home Departments prepared lists of wanted militants and action was about to start on Thursday after Durrani and others had set the scene by admitting that Qasab was Pakistani.

This was too much for the military leaders and they issued a "note of advice" to the president and Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani that Durrani had to go immediately. The government buckled, and Washington has lost a vital point man as it prepares for a new phase in Afghanistan.

So, to answer a few question:

Q1. Was the Mumbai attacks a Level 5 ops?
Answer: Cannot be sure

Q2: Can the Mumbai plans originate from Level 5?
Answer : Sure

Q3: Can an India – Pakistan war help the AAE objectives?
Answer: Very much so. (See opium and farmgate price manipulations for the region too)


The Indian agenda should only be points 1, 2,4 and 9 above – hence join hands with AAE today. And ensure victory that does not deliver AAE aims only, but is able to carve out a significant geo-political victory for India. A strong India can counter both AAE and Chinese designs in the region from an even wicket without compromising its security.

If India plays the ball intelligently, it will say to AAE - we are not here to clean up the "shit" after you created the "mess" in the first place. We need AAE troop involvement too. Now, what would make AAE commit its troop to fight in Pakistan? Well, for starters a Mumbai like operation in mainland USA will surely trigger the AAE fury onto Pakistan. And look what media is reporting : "Mumbai like attack can happen in US: Bush aide."

Thus the terrorist attacks in Mumbai have dramatically damaged Pakistan’s image in the United States where a consensus seems to be emerging that the terrorists may be planning a Mumbai-like attack on the US as well and that if such an attack happens, it will originate in Pakistan. (AAE blitz in cornering Pakistan complete, and India should be happy with this)

And these were not unnamed intelligence officials who in the past discussed such scenarios with the US media on the condition that they remained anonymous.

These were all senior officials and lawmakers -- such as Gen David H. Petraeus, the new head of the US Central Command; Ken Wainstein, the White House national security adviser; and Senator Joe Lieberman, chairman Senate Homeland and Governmental Affairs Committee. And they were all speaking on the record.


Coincidence, I say :).

I also feel that the attack on Hamas was well timed by Israel to clean up its house before :

a) Obama administration comes in
b) Undertaking a serious “action” elsewhere.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

@ BuA,
Your analysis on the AAE agenda is an eye opener for people who arent experts in this field. Highly complex and highly plausible. Independant Baluchistan is an alarming thought.

India does seem to have a tight rope to walk on, especially when it means having to be an ally of AAE for now.

SM

Anonymous said...

Very interesting and intriguing. Had no clue of this Belusa group. If Pak army is killing off AAE traces, it means it either has Chinese support or it has calculated the response from AAE + India to be inadequate which can be contained by it.

Ray Lightning said...

BuA

I think some of your points are valid, but the rest are pure speculation which don't have too much merit. For example, the Muslim nation plan could never be in the geopolitical interest of the USA. Principally, a vast union of diverse regions ensures stability and propagates democracy and populist awareness (as has happened in India). Small isolated countries are prone to foreign intervention and geopolitical games. This is particularly true if the countries are under military control or dictatorships. It suits US interests that mineral-rich regions are under small countries with dictators in control. This is the reason why the Arabs themselves (not to mention the whole Muslim community) cannot unite into a single country. Israel is a prop by the US to prevent this union.

However, geopolitical strategies are changing rapidly due to the depletion of world's oil reserves. Even net-exporters of oil and gas are keeping the reserves for themselves because their own internal economies have grown.

The entire developed (western) world is getting conscious of the necessity of being energy independent. So massive investment in alternative (renewable + nuclear) energies is underway.

In your analysis, one issue which is specifically overhyped is the importance of central Asian gas reserves. They are valuable, but not as vast as the reserves in Russia, Iran or even Canada (which themselves are dwindling and approaching peak productions). They are not clearly the centre of attention.

Most of the world's energy needs are bound to be catered by nuclear power in the future (coal is another quick substitute, but should be avoided due to global warming concerns). When nuclear power becomes the energy of choice, there are no constraints on fuel supply, and there by no need for the required geopolitical games.

More information (www.prescriptionfortheplanet.com)


The geopolitical strategies of big-powers have a huge inertia as they maintain a continuum with the past. The US and UK strategy is still suffering under this inertia : from the period when Afghanistan was criticial to counter expanding Sovietic influence.

In the current era, it is in the interests of everyone to have larger unions run by secular and democratic governments (such as the European Union). India should be very wary of breaking up Pakistan. Any small country will be prone to dictatorships, foreign intervention and sponsorship of terrorism. So India should take an active role in preserving the unity of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to build a larger union in the South Asian region on the lines of the EU. That will be a major plus to the geopolitical interests of India (and also by extension to the USA). China would be wary of this development, but has nothing which is harmful to its own national integrity (only to its geopolitical interests abroad). Similarly, India & EU should encourage similar greater-unions in the Arab countries, Africa and South America. These should serve as counterweights to the USA in a multipolar world, the emergence of which is inevitable.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Ray, good questions and thanks for reading the “long post”. Let me try to answer them.

1. The Muslim nation plan could never be in the geopolitical interest of the USA.

Ans: Yes, you are right. This has been dumped in the dustbins, where this absurd idea actually belongs. But there was a time when this idea was espoused and backed by a strong group of people in Washington who liked the economic “oligopolistic structure” that this entity brings (albeit in different blocks and not a contagious version as presented in the map). The plan was that oil being the “raw material” will be run like MNC having “single authorities” in each of these blocks, the smaller ones merely subservient to the “stronger” ones and everyone makes money – as long as US retains the marketing and pipeline rights. However, this was a non-starter and the idea flopped.

2. The entire developed (western) world is getting conscious of the necessity of being energy independent. So massive investment in alternative (renewable + nuclear) energies is underway.

Ans: I am very closely associated with international finance, oil & gas & renewable energy. And I can talk and talk about the will of nations to change and how it gets stymied by the oil lobby.

Can you tell me other than Nordic countries, and a couple of smaller nations, which other nation has cut down its dependence to oil by switching to alternative fuel which other developed nation has done it?

Al Gore has given a plan to US to completely switch over to renewable sources in 10 years, but the oil lobby is not dead yet to let Gore interfere in their matters.

Giving you very recent news : In a claim that would surely shock the world, especially the oil importing poor countries, the Energy Watch group asserted on 9th Jan 2009 that the International Energy Agency (IEA) was obstructing a global switch to renewable power because of its ties to the oil, gas and nuclear sectors.

Experts from the Energy Watch group say the IEA publishes misleading data on renewables, and that it has consistently underestimated the amount of electricity generated by wind power in its advice to governments. They say the IEA shows “ignorance and contempt” towards wind energy, while promoting oil, coal and nuclear as “irreplaceable” technologies.

3. One issue which is specifically overhyped is the importance of central Asian gas reserves. They are valuable, but not as vast as the reserves in Russia, Iran or even Canada (which themselves are dwindling and approaching peak productions).

Ans: Currently the largest gas reserves are in Russia with 48 TCM, followed by Iran with 28 TCM. However, all this is changing and will continue to change. With the discovery of Yolotan Osman gas field in Turkmenistan in October 2008, the gas equation and dynamics have changed. Preliminary indications are the gas reserves in Turkmenistan is around 38.4 TCM – far more than Iran and just 20% lower than Russia. And this means immense geopolitical movements around this neighbourhood.

Hence Ray – Yolotan Osman gas reserves are themselves greater than the gas reserves of Iran (certified). And there are other gas fields in Turkmenistan, yet to be explored but has shown huge “deposits” in aerial mapping.

Let me state here, that India is keen to exploit the greatest energy source of all, Helium 3 – however that is not available in “marketable” quantity on earth. However, they are “supposed” to be in huge quantity around moon and one of the prime reason for Chandrayaan’s voyage has been to look for traces of Helium – 3. To give you a peek into the quantum to energy ratio of Helium 3 : one container load of Helium 3 is enough to light the whole of USA for 1 year and India for 10 years.


4. Any small country will be prone to dictatorships, foreign intervention and sponsorship of terrorism. So India should take an active role in preserving the unity of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to build a larger union in the South Asian region on the lines of the EU.

Ans: First part correct – but terrorism can be controlled or diverted for “use”. Second part cannot agree (preserving unity of Pakistan) at all.

US is not going to give up Afghanistan – let us not get into the Great Game debate. Russia, Iran and US all want Pakistan to be cut to size for various reasons and it suits India just fine. How has Pakistan been a good neighbor to us at all? They have been an irritant, a spoke in our growth wheel, a haven for terrorism that bleeds India and a nuclear blackmailer to boot. Other than Punjab province of Pakistan (which is where the bulk of the Pak Army, its ISI and terror groups originate), the rest of Pakistan provinces are “controllable” or “in good terms with India”.

It is India’s interests that we help “anyone” break up Pakistan and de-fang its terror farm. Because the “world” deserves it.


I am sorry, this EU kind of Pak-India pact is utopian and will be a security nightmare. It is time we said what we are ashamed to say - "Islam only like to deal when in charge, it does not consider anyone an equal. I am sorry I am not about to become subserivient to a small blackmailing terrorist nation for market logistics that will put a heavy price on our security".

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

MAX/ A.H. / Shilpa / JB / Others - Come with your views too. They are valubale and welcome.

Ray Lightning said...

BuA,

Since energy seems to be the main reason for all kinds of geopolitics, let's be clear in our understanding.

I haven't heard of this new Yolatan reserve, but I suspect if it would yield much greater than Iran's reserves. Usually, natural gas is found near to oil fields, and we have already discovered the most of the world's reserves.

Regarding future energy technologies, nuclear power has significant advantages as compared to renewable technologies. I have spent quite some time understanding this area. Renewables such as wind and solar have huge requirements on land and metals. Their environmental impact (not to mention economic costs) are much higher than nuclear power.

Reference : www.withouthotair.com

Nuclear power is one of the most misunderstood topics. Most people connote this with nuclear weapons, which is very misleading. Nuclear power is one of the cheapest power sources that we have today, and its track record of safety is amongst the highest (even considering the Chernobyl disaster). New versions of nuclear reactors, known as 4th generation reactors, have no long-term nuclear waste problem. They use 100% of the Uranium instead of < 1% that is used by the current reactors. USA has aborted a greatly successful nuclear reactor project (Integral Fast Reactor) in 1994 due to pressure from oil and natural gas industry. Before termination, IFR project has tested and validated all this technology. This technology is not rocket-science. Nations across the globe have developed fast reactors.India is one of the nations which is at the forefront of this technology. With the Indo-US nuclear deal, if the IFR project is revived (as several climate scientists are recently urging the US government to do) and if the US cooperates with the sharing of this knowledge (which is necessary if India has to cut back its coal consumption), India can accelerate its 3-stage nuclear power programme as visualized by Dr Homi Bhabha. Apart from the IFR, there is another promising reactor known as Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) which shares all the advantages of IFR : no nuclear waste, inherently safe (no meltdown possible due to laws of physics), proliferation resistant, cheap, fuel which runs for millenia.

With 4th generation nuclear power, fuel is not an issue. But India does have enormous reserves of Thorium. This will last for several millenia of power use.

www.energyfromthorium.com
www.prescriptionfortheplanet.com
www.skirsch.com/politics/globalwarming/ifr.htm

About a broader Pakistan-India union on the lines of EU, I respect your perspective. But my analysis remains as before. Let's respectfully disagree :)

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

@RAY:

We agree to disagree.

Many years back, at work, I gave my Country Head a card which stated: "If you and I always agree, then one of us is not needed."

Hence, I always welcome diverse views because they are / can be valuable.

Cheers !

Anonymous said...

Hamid Gul, the past head of ISI has said in a publication recently: Pakistan, wracked by terrorism and a deep economic crisis, an environment in which anti-Americanism is thriving, is facing collapse, Gul warned.

The implications of this situation for the fight against terrorism and the security of the country's nuclear arsenal, are dire, he said.

"The risk is real, there could be a civil war, even a revolution along the lines of the Iranian one. Personally, I hope for a revoultion but a soft one, like that the one born in America during the Vietnam war or like pacifist movements in Europe against the war in Iraq, " Gul stated.

All points very "double edged".

Anonymous said...

An Islamic revolution on the likes of Iran is very much a possibility for Pakistan.

There were hoardes of Pakistanis waiting to storm the US embassy in Karachi.

Artistes are being bombed, theaters are getting closed down.

I am betting my bottom dollar, that Islamic revolution aka Khoemini will overtake Pakistan aided and abetted by Pak military.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

It is strange that I get this letter from the above Anon. My next article is based on this fact.... :)

Ray Lightning said...

This will be major shit if an Islamic revolution happens in pakistan. Going by US track record, it is very much a possibility.

BENGAL UNDER ATTACK said...

Ray,

A few articles back I wrote about these Yolotan Osman and the Great Game.

http://bengalunderattack.blogspot.com/2008/12/great-game-in-central-asia.html

Anonymous said...

fuck usa bithces

Max said...

@BuA

Sorry for the silence. I'm tied down with some work but managed to pop in and browse through your article. As I said before, all India needs to know is where and when to draw the line when dealing with AAE / Anglo-American entities and we'll be the winners. Or else we're doomed. A well-thought analysis though.

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