Tuesday, February 17, 2009

SHARIA IN SWAT - VIEWPOINTS FROM PAKISTAN



Before we start looking at things from our perspective and start analysing, it will be prudent to look at this situation from the eyes of Pakistanis. Next article we can look at it from our perspective.

Pakistan agreed to restore strict Islamist law in the Swat valley to pacify a revolt by Taliban militants. The agreement was reached at talks between Islamists and officials of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) government in Peshawar on Monday.


MIAN IFTIKHAR HUSSAIN OF ANP - IN A PENSIVE MOOD

"After successful negotiations ... all un-Islamic laws related to the judicial system, those against the Koran and Sunnah, would be subject to cancellation and considered null and void," said NWFP's Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain, referring to the holy book of Islam and the saying and teachings of the Prophet Mohammad (pbuh).

The Pakistani Spectator is commenting: Well that is not a problem actually. As late as July 28, 1969 Qazi courts were operating in the Swat valley. Then English legal system was introduced by the government in the area which proved extremely inefficient and was rife with irregularities and it only delayed the justice. Government’s half hearted efforts in managing the Swat and FATA area (which is still largely governed by the FCR) made the matters worst over the years.

Abject povert and deprivation of the area, lack of justice and opportunities, apathy of successive governments, clueless Afghan war fighters and some of semi-literate so-called religious leaders are the main reasons behind Swat and FATA unrest. Like it or not, right now Taliban in the Swat region enjoy the support of local population who support the Taliban’s demand of Shariah promulgation in Malakand Agency.

Even the police officers of the area and secular politician have supported this demand. Chief Minister of NWFP Ameer Haider Hoti, Governor Awais Ghani and the Army high command have strongly recommended to enforce the long pending Sharia regulations, which will be called the “Nifaz-e-Adal regulation”.

There is only one solution to the Swat problem and that is political. Government should readily announce the promulgation of Shariah in the Swat region. It will leave Taliban with no plausible demand and they would have no option but to accept the Shariah and it would also place the local population on the side of government. Some Talibans would like to take control of Shariah, but that is not so much bigger problem and could be handled by the government.”

Dr Ghayur Ayub writing in Pak Tribune : Taliban’s Swift Justice.

Dr. Ayub writes - It was during a visit to Peshawar that I met a senior police officer. He narrated a story which was brow-raising. He told of a person from Bannu who lent Rs. 40,000 [approx. U.S. $500] to a man he knew, who promised that he would return it within a specified time. He told the borrower that he had saved up the said amount to help pay for his children's education. When the agreed time lapsed, he asked him to return the amount. The borrower started making excuses and after a few months he flatly refused and challenged the lender to do what ever he could. There is a Pukhtu word for it ‘Laas Da Azaad De’.

The man went from pillar to post to seek justice but with no result. The police proved incapable as the borrower was a powerful man with strong connections. When he tried to knock on the door of the court for justice he was dismayed to hear that it would take months for the case to come to a hearing and years to reach a final judgment. After all that, the chances were that the verdict would go against him as he was up against powerful people. To top it off, he was told he had to pay Rs 1000/ upfront every time he wanted to put his case forward for a hearing. This amount did not include the amount he was going to pay the lawyers. When he calculated it, the approximate amount turned out to be more than the actual amount he was going to seek justice for.

At the end of every day, he would go back home heart broken; cursing his luck to be living in a country where there was no justice for the middle or poor classes. He tried to persuade the borrower by pleading with him, explaining how desperately he needed the money for his children’s education. He even offered a discount or to split the amount into installments, but all in vain. It was like hitting a brick wall. He felt dejected, helpless and powerless to see his children suffering just because he came from a stratum of a society pushed against the wall.

One evening, he heard a knock on the door. He opened it and saw two strangers with bushy beards standing outside. Thinking they were there to collect charity, he asked with irritation what they wanted. They told him that they saw him crying in the mosque and on enquiry they were told that someone was refusing to pay his money back. With a surprised look on his face, he asked them who they were.

“We are local Taliban,” they said. Then they asked if he would let them have his side of story. He saw a ray of hope and ushered them in. After listening to his story, the Taliban told him that the borrower had committed an un-Islamic act, and if he wanted they could persuade him to return the said money. “We want your permission”. His heart jumped with flickering optimism and immense joy and without any hesitation, he gave them his consent. Before they left the premises they asked for 72 hours.

According to the police officer, the Taliban went to the influential man and told him it was un-Islamic not to pay the amount he had borrowed from the man. They threatened that if he did not pay the debt back within 48 hours; he would bear the consequences. They also told him how Taliban had previously dealt with people like him. Shivers went through the spine of the ‘powerful’ man as he knew what their threat meant. With a dry mouth, frightened face and shaking body he nodded his head in agreement, promising he would return the amount. The next day, he went to the house of the lender and paid back the full amount he had refused up until then. He apologized for the delay and requested him to tell the Taliban not to harm him or his family and to let them know that he had returned the money. The Taliban never went back to ask whether he got the money back, but they must had been watching the development. From that day on, according to the police officer, that man became a strong supporter of Taliban. Could anyone blame him?

Another related story about quick and effective justice comes from the Bugti tribe of Balochistan. According to electronic media, a man named Nazim Ali was refused his share in a dispute. According to him, he spent a lot of money to get justice from the court but failed because of corrupt practices. So he went to the tribal chief who referred him to the Jirga. The Jirga decided that he should walk on fire and if he was telling the truth he will not be burned. Nazim Ali agreed to it and in front of onlookers he walked on red hot coal. After the walk, people saw that his soles were not burned. The chief decided in his favor and he was given his due share.

There are countless other stories of parallel justice systems running in Pakistan in the present day. These systems seem to be nippy and effective satisfying their poor clients. Some are Taliban style, others tribal style, sharing one commonality; they are swift, just and not stained with corruption.

In my discussions with different walks of people living in the troubled parts of FATA and NWFP the vast majority agreed that the justice provided by Taliban is fair and quick. They might not agree with other activities related to Talibanization such as discouraging western education, burning of schools, gender discrimination etc; but they do appreciate the provision of justice served at the doorsteps with efficiency, audacity and honesty. Swift justice is the major achievement which attracts the poor people of Pakistan to Taliban.”


A comment from a Pakistani to the above article:

“This is the time when we have to strive to preserve our national interests, we should clearly tell USA that Taliban are our friends, they have never been a threat to Pakistan and they don't have any international agenda like Al Qaeda. We should also clearly tell USA that Afghanistan can only be handled if its administration can be given to Pakistan because we know how to handle afghan issues. At the same time, we should try to make arrangements with Pakistani Taliban, we should tell them that we are not their foes and we do not want them to lose but for this they have to do some overhauling in their ranks and they need to find some hidden hands in their armament supply and they should also seek those people who are using their anger on the state of Pakistan and its forces, we should also tell them that they are unwittingly playing in the hands of our and their foes. "Pushtoon-Nationalism" of anti-Pakistan elements like ANP can only be defeated by the help of Taliban and for this purpose we need to build new relations with them and there should be win-win approach to it.”


Ahmed Quraishi – a well known commentator in Pakistan who sometimes hosts show with the infamous Zaid Hamid had this to say:

“I must say first that this classification, the good Taliban, the bad and the ugly, is to simplify a very complex situation. This classification is a good way to begin to understand the situation. Note that the good Taliban in this classification is the Afghan Taliban alone. The bad and the ugly are the Pakistani Taliban.

The Afghan Taliban is based in Afghanistan and is fighting in Afghanistan. They have not engaged in fighting inside Pakistan. So the question of them fighting the Pakistani Taliban, the bad the ugly, does not arise. Also, the good Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, are focusing their resources on fighting the occupation forces in their own country, Afghanistan. They are not concerned with saving the Pakistani state and fighting Pakistan's own enemies inside Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban are using whatever resources they have to focus on Afghanistan.

Initially the Afghan Taliban were encouraged by the sudden emergence of the Pakistani Taliban. However, they became skeptical when the Pakistani Taliban began to get engaged in suspicious activities, like attacking China's interests inside Pakistan, attacking the Pakistani government and military, and abducting Pakistani civilians and brutally murdering them. That's when Mullah Omar is reported to have publicly rebuked the so-called Pakistani Taliban and distanced the Afghan Taliban from the Pakistanis.

Once again, this is not about secularism or modernity, or liking or disliking the Taliban and their style of governance. This is about proxy wars at the level of intelligence services of several countries. The Pakistani Taliban, the so-called, are good in our books only because they are part of the overall political and military resistance to the occupation in their own country. They have never before or now indulged in terrorism anywhere.

The Pakistani Taliban is an amalgamation of criminal elements, opportunists, and hired sabeteurs leading a bunch of misguided people. They need to be eliminated. Pakistani government and military have ample evidence that shows that suspicious elements, including foreigners with possible links to intelligence agencies of several countries, have been fighting as part of the so-called Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan can decisively eliminate these people.

But these criminals have deliberately entrenched themselves in populated areas in order to provoke the Pakistani military into retaliation resulting in massive civilian casualties. This is a known guerrilla warfare tactic. It aims at discrediting the regular forces at the level of propaganda. Also, another reason why the Pakistani military is not using all-out force is to avoid a possible bait. There is reason to believe that the increased insurgencies in western Pakistani regions since 2005 onwards is deliberate and one of its objectives could be to attract the Pakistani military into an expanded internal civil war in the tribal belt. The Pakistani military might be trying to avoid this large scale war, keeping in mind that the foreign-trained and funded insurgency is tied to the situation in Afghanistan and the role being there by India and the United States, and possible a couple of other European countries that have established intelligence outposts there.


Another Pakistani’s response to Ahmed Quraishi’s (AQ) reply above :

“Sorry, but this article is a load of toss! there can be absolutely no justification for the actions of these so called taliban. Pakistani, or local or whatever u wanna call them. as for AQ's reply, there are several very confusing contradictions, at one point you are calling the pakistani taliban to not be engaged in any terrorist activity, and in the next line you are saying that they are comprised of criminals, hired saboteurs, terrorists, that they are a problem!!!! pakistani army had gained a clear edge in the early stages of operation rah-e-haqq, if it wasnt for those ANP idiots making peace treaties, we'd trapped them and brought enough firepower on them to wipe them out for good. yes, i personally know that we came this close to victory but then stopped short of delivering the killer blow. not once, but twice. now they have re-organized and re-equipped themselves, knowing full well how the army fights, and how to counter it. Things are getting out of hand. and no one is coming forward to accept the responsibility, FATA, Swat, and most likely the NWFP WILL get out hand if ruthless, swift and decisive measures are not taken. It may sound hooliganistic, but there is a need for launching a sustained air campaign in those areas, i am talking about PAF bringing its autonomous firepower to bear against these talibans. Soften them up, then wipe the slate clean. The ground forces should take a secondary role. PAF has the capability to accurately hit these guys. if they are indulging in psy warfare and terror tactics by chopping the heads off and hanging the bodies, then we should pay the favour back in kind. and i tell you, no enemy, no matter how hardcore, can stand against the disuasive effect air power has. Aside from that, i am disappointed to see such an article appearing on AQ's website, the last place I’d expect to see such nonsense glorifying these barbarians.

Another Pakistani response: The government is claiming this to be a big victory. Under the agreement Sharia law is being formally established as the law in the Swat and Malakand region, provided the TNSM helps establish stability there, and also supports a new local administration which will be established in Swat, operating under Sharia law, with the consensus of all players in Swat. The TSNM's militant wing, the Swat Taliban, has also agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and to cease burning down schools. This agreement may I add, has almost no chance of working.

This is not the first attempted peace agreement in Swat. In 2008 a deal was struck with the TNSM, requiring them to “hold the local government…in high esteem, work for the peaceful implementation and enforcement of Sharia law, condemn attacks on the government, and cooperate with the government to establish the law and restore peace." We see, here that this is not the first time we’ve offered them Sharia law as an olive branch. The logic of the Pakistani government would seem to be that, under the new system, the TNSM will get their demand for Sharia law, but this will be Sharia law, to the extent it falls within the limits of the Pakistani constitution, as this region would still be part of the Pakistani state. Hence, this would not be much more than a change in appearance, as all that will happen is, in exchange for peace, judges within these areas, will move from having the title ‘Judge’ to having the title ‘Qazi’, a nominal difference at best. They have attempted this kind of compromise before, and it will not work.

This is because these people do not have any interest in falling under the control of the state and constitution of Pakistan. These are not simple clerics, who feel their religious imperative urges them to establish an Islam-based legal system in Pakistan. This is an armed revolutionary movement bent on control and establishment of their own system under their own supervision.

Moreover, they’ve seen this tactic from the Pakistani government before, and they are wise to it. Sufi Mohammad, the leader of the TNSM has already made clear, that the condition must be added that Sharia court decisions in Swat cannot be verified by or appealed in the courts of the rest of the state judicial system. This, of course, means that without any supervision or provision for appeal, the courts will run based on whatever law the strongest group within Swat, that being the TNSM/Taliban, chooses. The constitution would be irrelevant. This, of course, is a condition that the Pakistani government would never be willing to accept. If it does, they would effectively be partitioning Swat from Pakistan. If it doesn’t, well, the TNSM/Taliban will claim that the government is not committed to true Sharia, and not committed to following with their deal, just as they claimed in the last peace agreement of 2008, and thus will be “compelled” to take up their arms once more, and the terror will resume.

Only this time, it will prove to be even worse. With this level of acceptance from the government, these Jihadis will gain more public legitimacy than ever before. With the government itself accepting their fight as a struggle for Sharia, and further, publicly declaring their demand for Sharia legitimate through this deal, the government is allowing them to shape the public appearance of this conflict. So, when this agreement will fall through, as it inevitably will, the TNSM and Taliban will be able to use the public legitimacy their cause is being given, to blame the government for betraying their legitimate cause of Islamic law, and further fuel public opinion in the rest of Pakistan against the government. Many feel one of the main reasons the government is being driven to this agreement is that the government itself is incurring massive losses and yet does not even have the support of a public mandate for fighting the Taliban militarily. Therefore, they are driven to other solutions. However, this option is doomed to failure. The agreement will not only fall through soon enough, but the agreement will give the Taliban and the TNSM’s position further legitimacy, and give them an opportunity to turn the public opinion even further against the government’s armed solution.

I implore President Zardari to abandon this unwise strategy. You have tried these tactics before. They have not worked. In fact from Musharraf’s countless failed peace deals, to the failed treaties last years, the state has always been weakened further in relation to these terrorists in these deals. Watch their activities. Listen to their rhetoric. They have no real interest in compromising with the government. They have no intentions of subordinating to, or even coexisting with, the Pakistani state. For them, such agreements are only stepping stones towards further legitimacy and further control, and only help ease their path towards the dominant position they wish to take, piece by piece, over the whole of this tottering nation, Pakistan.



Salman, a Pakistani, is an astronomer and Assistant Professor of Integrated Science & Humanities at Hampshire College, Massachusetts. In his blog – Science and Religion News he writes:

The news is bad for three main reasons:

a) The deal was struck after the failure of the military to defeat the militants. Lets be clear: The government was forced into making this deal by people who have been bombing schools and beheading people for the past few months. In return, the militants have a declared a 10 day cease fire. Prior peace deals in the tribal areas have mostly resulted in a stronger militancy - and many doubt that the outcome will be any different here. But this deal primarily gives us a status report of Pakistan army's fight against the militants.

b) Taliban expert, Ahmad Rashid, has been warning about Swat for a while. He suspects that, because of the success of drone attacks, Al-Qaeeda and Taliban leaderships are moving into the Swat district. This area has highly developed infrastructure and is only a 100 miles from Islamabad. But most importantly, it is quite far away from the Afghan border and the tribal areas and so may be safe from the drone attacks. Even if the drones are flying from bases in Pakistan, as Diane Feinstein recently stated, it will still be harder to attack on areas inside main Pakistan. If the Taliban and Al-Qaeeda leadership are indeed moving to Swat, this deal will further allow then to take control of the area.

c) This may be considered a model for other areas. Granted Swat has a peculiar history (all areas in Pakistan have their own peculiar histories), the strategy of terrorizing the population may be implementable in conservative enclaves in major cities, especially in Peshawar and Quetta, not to mention in other smaller districts of NWFP. Thus, the slow march of Taliban toward the more populous areas of Pakistan will continue. Remember, if Iraq with a population of 26 million was hard to control, then what hope do we have in a country of 170 million.


All of these reasons make Swat a crucial test for the battle against the Taliban. But things are not that simple. The people of Swat are relieved at the peace deal. They have been stuck for months between the brutal Taliban and an indiscriminant brute-force Pakistan military. For them, this is the only hope for peace and many are greeting this development with optimism ( And some of them are not spared respite even in New York - see this story about Swati's in New York feeling the Taliban heat. ).



Kamran Shafi writing in DAWN laments: "Let all of us Pakistanis hang our collective head in sorrow and in shame at the dreadful and downright evil and cold-blooded murder of Piotr Stanczek, the Polish geologist who was prospecting for oil in Attock district and who was kidnapped by the so-called Taliban and cruelly beheaded. What has gone wrong with us, I ask? Is this the country I was born in? Is this cruel and ugly place the Pakistan I knew whilst growing up, and going to college in Lahore where boys and girls would cycle to their schools and colleges as a matter of course? Is this tortured land that same land I called mine?"

Incidentally I have been informed that if anyone wants to know about SWAT - he has to read this exceptional article SWAT - A CRITICAL ANALYSIS, written by Dr. Sultan-i-Rome Assistant Professor of History and teaches at the Government Post Graduate Jahanzeb College, in Saidu Sharif, Swat, Pakistan.

PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN - ASIF ZARDARI stating: Pakistan fighting for survival against Taliban.

President Asif Zardari said the Taliban was trying to take over the country after having established its presence in "huge amounts of land" much beyond the tribal areas that form the terror group's original habitat. The official acceptance of the creeping takeover by Taliban would discomfit the powerful Pakistan army-ISI complex that is loath to admit its failure to control territory and has been at loggerheads with Zardari.

HOW CAN I LEAVE OUT THE ISI VIEW POINT:



ISI Directorate chief Lieutenant-General Shuja Pasha hailed jihadist leaders Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Fazlullah, whose depredations have claimed the lives of thousands of Pakistanis, as true patriots for offering to fight India.

Der Spiegel which carried an interview with Shuja Pasha comments: "Many Pakistani military officers do not see the Taliban as their enemy, but rather as a group that secretly promotes Pakistan's interests in its resistance against Kabul and the United States. India, on the other hand, has already been Pakistan's enemy in three wars."

Shuja Pasha also defended the Taliban in an interview with Der Spiegel, stating: "Shouldn't they be allowed to think and say what they please? They believe that jihad is their obligation. Isn't that freedom of opinion?

What else can we expect from the ISI which created the Taliban in the first place?

SWAT - ONCE MORE UP CLOSE. (Switzerland of East or HELL?)



I dont know what you see, but I see that Taliban (ISI proxies) in SWAT is just a hop, skip and jump away from KASHMIR.

Friday, February 13, 2009

UK WAS THE BIGGEST DRUG RUNNER IN 19TH CENTURY? WHO IS IT TODAY AND WHY?

OPIUM IS THE ECONOMIC ASSET TODAY - CENTRAL ASIAN GAS IS THE ECONOMIC ASSET OF TOMORROW.

This article in 3 parts:

1. Economics of Opium trade (Historic + Current context)
2. State of economy in the US and Europe
3. Conclusion


PART 1.
ECONOMICS OF OPIUM - A SHORT HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
While the Dutch introduced Indian opium in tobacco pipes to the Chinese in 1700, it's the British which through East India Company in 1750 took control of the opium trade in India by cultivating in the states of Bengal first and then Bihar.


EAST INDIA EMBLEM:
By 1767 the British East India Company's import of opium to China reaches a staggering two thousand chests of opium per year. By 1793 the British East India Company establishes a monopoly on the opium trade. All poppy growers in India were forbidden to sell opium to competitor trading companies.

In 1817, Britain sold 240 tons of opium into China. Within ten years, the level had risen to 750 tons, and by 1837, just prior to the Opium War, it exceeded 2500 tons.


TYPICAL CHINESE OPIUM DEN

Read Amitav Ghosh's SEA OF POPPIES to get a better insight into the opium world.


R. Mukerji (in Rise and Fall of the East India Company) argued that there were compelling economic imperatives that drew the European India Companies into the path of imperialism. He pointed out that although monopoly rights assured the India Companies of the exclusive privileges of buying and selling, it did not guarantee that they could buy cheap. For that, political control was essential.

A major problem for the East India Company was that their profits were in direct conflict with those of their British-based competitors. Under these circumstances, as long as the profit motive was paramount (which it was), the Battle at Plassey, and the Opium Wars could be seen as logical outcomes of circumstances where continued profits by legal and honorable means were simply not possible. But, had the East Company comprised of "Gentlemen Traders" as some historians have claimed, they could not have switched so easily from trading in Indian Textiles, to trading in Opium for Tea which, in modern language - would surely be described as a form of "drug-running"!

Had the traders of the East India Company been "men of honour", denied the right to profitable trade, they would have simply gone bankrupt, as so many do in the world of business!

Throughout much of the 19th Century the principal British export to China by this trading company was opium, grown in British colonies in India and Bengal. Opium exceeded in value the total of all other export trade commodities the British were selling in China, despite that opium was illegal under Chinese law.
The trade enriched the British at home and supported their colonies abroad. Hence The issues that sparked the Opium War were economic.

Opium wars is a different subject altogether, however the main points we can infer from the above:

1. The British used opium to profit. If they had not, they would have gone bankrupt. – and even “GOD COULD NOT HAVE SAVED THE QUEEN. THE OPIUM DID.”

2. If the British went bankrupt, they could not keep their colonies intact, or expand and maintain hegemony around the globe and expand their empire.

3. UK became the first official drug runner in the world and a good one at that.


Let us remember the above 3 points and fast forward to present and land in the country called Afghanistan.

OPIUM ECONOMIC - PRESENT:

1. Afghanistan produced 6700 tons of opium in 2006, 8200 tons in 2007 and 7700 tons in 2008. On average, the world demand of opium-based narcotics, including heroin, is only half of this production. Where is the rest of opium going? Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UNODC is convinced that is the only explanation. In a recent bulletin he issues an urgent order: 'Find the missing opium.' "As a priority, intelligence services need to examine who holds this surplus, where it may go, and for what purpose" he says. "We know little about these stockpiles of drugs, besides that they are not in the hands of farmers."

2. British and American forces – this includes all kinds of Americans such regular forces, CIA, Socom and contractors – have been buying and storing all the surplus opium. (See the movie American Gangster to figure out US military complicity in narcotics trade).

3. This report gets credence from the fact that about 70% of all opium production in Afghanistan comes from Helmand province, an area under the direct control of the British and the Americans.

4. The Taliban, when they were in control of Afghanistan, nearly eradicated the opium cultivation in Afghanistan. This was started again and in “enormous quantities” once the British & American troops took control of Hemland province.

See graph below : In 2001 the Taliban nearly eradicated opium from Afghanistan.


5. The Americans who wanted to put in Unocal pipelines when the Taliban were in power put Hamid Karzai as the President of Afghanistan. Incidentally, Hamid Karzai was a consultant to UNOCAL.

6. The biggest drug baron in Afghanistan happens to be Ahmed Wali Karzai. Incidentally, he happens to be the brother of Hamid Karzai. One of the many incidents : When Afghan security forces found an enormous cache of heroin hidden beneath concrete blocks in a tractor-trailer outside Kandahar in 2004, the local Afghan commander quickly impounded the truck and notified his boss.

Before long, the commander, Habibullah Jan, received a telephone call from Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Hamid Karzai, asking him to release the vehicle and the drugs, Jan later told American investigators

7. Mr. Izzatullah Wasifi, a brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, was arrested by the U.S. authorities from Caesars Palace, California, along with his wife Fereshteh Behbahani on July 15, 1987, for the trafficking of high quality heroin. Wasifi was sentenced for three years and eight months while his wife was sentenced to three years probation. However after the formation of Karzai government in Kabul, Izzatullah Wasifi was made the Governor of Farah province of Afghanistan and later, last year, his brother, Hamid Karzai, appointed him as the all powerful Chief of Afghanistan’s General Independent Administration of Anti-Corruption with responsibilities to prevent the Opium growth and Heroin production and its illicit export.

Keeping in view Mr. Wasifi’s past, it is nothing less than stunning to notice that the person who a few years ago was a drug trafficker is today Afghanistan’s chief anti-drug trafficking officer. Wasifi used to be an anchor between the Afghan drug barons and the Western drug buyers and used to run a drug trafficking operations.

8. As per DEA, Dawood Ibrahim is among the top 3 drug runners in the world today. He is most likely in the business together with the people who are mentioned in point 1 (people who are stockpiling the opium). Note that the Americans and British are not at all interested in catching Dawood. And for that matter – neither is India. (yes, neither is India – a host of politicians cutting across political lines are in Dawood’s monthly payout list).

Read this article : WHY THE CIA DOES NOT WANT INDIA TO HAVE DAWOOD?

Also read this article: Dawood Ibrahim fits the billing for one of Cheney’s “unsavory” intelligence sources.

In the above article it is mentioned: "DAWOOD Ibrahim, according to our sources, played an important part in Cheney’s and Rumsfeld’s “shadow war” after 9/11. It was Ibrahim, for example, who used his criminal network to track down the killers of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl in Pakistan. Ibrahim’s men were also used to provide protection for Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai in Pakistan and Afghanistan, especially when the Afghan frequented gay brothels in Pakistan. Ibrahim’s enterprises, called “D-Company,” ensured that U.S. supply ships in the Arabian Sea were protected from attack, that the U.S. embassy in Islamabad was not targeted for terrorist attack, arranged for reasonable port fees to be assessed for U.S. ships in Dubai in support of the Iraq war, that U.S. sailors and contractors in Dubai were protected, and that all the kickbacks for Cheney’s Halliburton and other U.S. contractors were properly laundered through Dubai banks. Ibrahim’s network also ensured that the land route from Karachi to Afghanistan allowed U.S., Indian, and other nations’ goods to move into the landlocked country unimpeded."

9. Incidentally the Russian intelligence said the money and logistics for 26/11 came from Dawood. The contract to kill Ajmal Kazav has been given by ISI to Dawood. And the inference one can draw is that Dawood is working with the British and American intelligence on the drug trade – albeit circutatiously. After all, even after the economic downturn who has the money to buy opium at today’s prices and hoard it? It is the US.


DAWOOD IBRAHIM:



Keep the first 3 points in mind and after reading the 9 points above, what do you think is happening? If the UK did it in 19th century, can the US + UK do it in 21st century? After all, how badly screwed is the western world financially?

Answer is YES
, they can do it. The American did it in 20th century too.. (See American Gangster - the movie based on true story).

PART 2:
But why will they do it? It is because the economy of the western world and US is badly in a tailspin downwards. Here is a picture :

From my article on November 1st:

The official version of US debt which is USD 10 trillion. The actual US debt, including "invisibles" or off balance sheet transactions is closer to USD 58 TRILLION. This includes the staggering USD 1 trillion credit card debt that will most likely see the collapse of Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase. The sub-prime mortgage losses will be closer to USD 3 trillion and not USD 1 trillion.

Such is the extent of "greed" that is boggles the mind. This can be seen if one sees the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) markets. The CDS market is worth a staggering $ 62 trillion up from USD 900 billion in 2000. (Note: USD 1000 billion = 1 trillion). Which means that this (CDS) Wall Street speculation racket is 5 times the size of all holdings in NYSE (New York Stock Exchange).

If this debt is averaged out: EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD IN THE US OWES A DEBT OF USD 500,000 ( half a million dollars) when their average yearly salary is USD 40,000.

This will lead to austerity measures, where the US citizen is going to opt for positive savings, for the first time (instead of feeding his consumption by borrowed money). MORE SAVINGS means less DISPOSABLE INCOME. This will lead to LESS CONSUMPTION, threatening to pull the US economy down further.

To kickstart the economy, the US Govt will have pump in huge Investments, CROWDING OUT private investments. Lower interest rates will give the catalyst for the investments. This is the begining of a worldwide recession that is expected to last until at least late 2009 (Paul Krugman is saying 10 years). Keep an eye on 3 things:


1. CDS Market : It is currently at US $ 62 TRILLION. The higher it goes, longer will be the pain.

2. PRICE OF GOLD: If the price of Gold is US $ 700 or begins to go down, then US will be in DEFLATIONARY PERIOD.

3. DOLLAR INDEX : If this index holds above 70 - the US can prints its way out of the recession (pretty much what it had been doing). However, if the index falls below 70, future growth will be killed as this will lead to higher interst rates and inflation (hence no crowding out effect as govt will not be able to raise cheap debt)


To avoid a long recession, deflation - the US is fighting on many fronts.

Bretton Woods I gave rise to NATO - the hedge against a Russian invasion. Bretton Woods I became a political program and not an economic one. When loans to fund Western Europe's re-development failed to stimulate growth - the LOANS became GRANTS - aka the MARSHALL PLAN. Today , the US cannot afford any Marshall Plans.

The question naturally arises on the primacy of the dollar. Can EURO take over. The answer is NO. The EURO is only a DECADE old and is not backed either by i) SOVREIGN TAXING POWER or by ii) A CENTRAL BANK WITH VAST AUTHORITY. Relying on a currency (EURO) that is dependant on the will of 15 disparate countries DOES NOT MAKE FOR A RELIABLE RESERVE CURRENCY. Hence CHINA, JAPAN, GERMANY, FRANCE etc will ensure that the PRIMACY OF THE US DOLLAR REMAINS.

As on Feb’09 – the US Fed is pumping in money into the US economy in double digits clearly opening it to hyper inflation if things go out of hand. However as stated in point 3 above, as long as the dollar index holds above 70 the US can print its way out of trouble.

BUT: "The Fed is sending a message that it will print money to an unlimited extent until it starts to see the economy expanding," William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed said.

Well, it's about time that Ben "Printing Press" Bernanke lived up to his moniker. With a Fed rate cut to zero percent, the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) era begins. But Japan has already tried that and all they got was a "lost decade" of deflation, and a yen carry trade that contributed to a bunch of grand global distortions after that.

A US commentator stated: The USDX has crashed below the critical level of 80 in what looks like a classic if not very pronounced head-and-shoulders formation. That has pulled gold prices up to $850, which is also a critical level, being the famed Jan 1980 resistance level. We are balanced on the proverbial knife edge now, with gold and the US dollar sitting at over 20-year resistance/support levels.

This is the trigger event that many in the contrarian community have been waiting for. The community has called for US hitting zero interest rates years ago in advance of the fact. What happens next is the trillion-dollar question. The deflationists are pointing at Japan, while the inflationists are pointing at Zimbabwe. The community consensus for now seems to be Japan-style deflation for the short term, *followed by* Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation further out.

Let me present : Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute.

I may not believe all that Celente says but he is hard to dismiss as another crackpot doomsdayer. He comes with serious “credibility”.

He is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events. The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November 2007 that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "financial giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others.

He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent. (WOW – 90%)


His interview in Fox News


Fox is a neo-con channel and Celente is anything but a neo-con. American pay a huge premium to background for interviews. By interviewing Celente in a pub, Fox is trivializing the message Celente gives. All this is, of course, deliberate.

Now, if what Celente says has a probability of 10% - then it’s a huge financial conundrum that US and Western world is looking into. (we will not look at effect on China and India to complicate this article).

Also read The Telegraph article of 16th Feb, written by KP Nayar: DESOLATE & DEVASTATED IN AMERICA.

PART 3:
Suffice to say, does the opium trade and US & UK complicity now make “economic” sense?

Hence Opium is the economic asset of today, the Central Asian gas is the economic asset of tomorrow (Central Asian gas has been covered extensively in Great Game and Ultimate Game articles, earlier).

The US & UK are not going to move out of Afghanistan, come what may and see the collapse of their empire exacerbated.

Monday, February 9, 2009

PAKISTAN'S PREVARICATION IS UPSTAGED BY INDIA'S PUSILLANIMITY

Prevaricate(verb) – speak or act evasively or misleadingly.

Pusillanimous (adj) – lacking courage, timid.

Two words that came to my mind the moment I saw the news tonight (Times Now, 9th Feb) where the Pakistani guest (PG) was facing off ex-Indian diplomat G. Parthasarathy. The conversation went something like this:

P.G – Pakistan’s dossier is ready but only just. We have further questions to ask India. After all, we were not called at the site of the incident (26/11), nor did we question Ajmal Kasav.

G. Parthasarthy: Pakistan is lying. They were invited and were granted consular access to Ajmal Kasav but Pakistan till date have been denying that Kasav is a Pakistani even though their Geo TV interviewed his parents. (Parthasarty missed the point about the sacking of Durrani on this count).

P.G. – The basic contours of the report to be handed over to India will state three things:

1. 26/11 was planned outside of Pakistan in an European country, a country which is itself a victim of terrorism.

2. The money for 26/11 came from a rich Middle eastern nation.

3. Indian RAW had advance knowledge of this attack and still did not do anything.


G.Parthasarthy – All this is to whitewash the real perpetrators. Why does not Pakistan look at where the terrorists came from? Why have the families of all 10 terrorists (of 26/11) been shifted and hidden? Indian government does not have the gumption to take strong diplomatic action. They just blow hot and cold. I would want an immediate withdrawal of High Commissioner from Pakistan and the Pak High Commissioner should be sent back.

BuA: In Indian leadership lost opportunities I wrote:

India cannot afford another weak kneed Prime Minister at its helm, who should read “Foreign Affairs for Dummies” before taking on the wheel of the nation. Foreign leaders have assailed Indian leaders in public and private (Kissinger tapes etc) and this was not without reason.

India’s defensive stance in the global platform was built around non-alignment and non-violence, as if that would give India a high moral ground. The question people forgot to ask: High moral ground from whom – from the marauding Chinese, expansionist Russia or the interventionist USA? Or were we trying to impress the plethora of smaller African and South American nations whose standing in the international forum counted for nothing. Nobody likes a weakling – they are not given respect.

India today, deserves respect.

India today, has to chart its path out from the venomous snake pits of jehadism, Chinese and Pakistani confabulations, global economic meltdown and other myriad contentious issues – and for that we need a strong Prime Minster.


We have had eminent leaders with global perspective whose vision has been world betterment. Whilst the cause is certainly noble and I salute it, India has had to sacrifice its ‘strength’ on the socialist alter.

In the article : With limited military options what can India do – I laid BARE the duplicitousness of our PM and Foreign Minister and wrote
:

1. India planned to attack at terrorist camps surgically. With most of the camps emptied out, these strikes would have been only symbolic. The aggressive stance of Pranab Mukherjee and the submissive stance of Manmohan Singh is calibrated to fit the proverbial "bad cop good cop" game theorizing. Indian elections are due in 2009 and if the Congress party is not seen to do anything, then their election prospects will be "doomed". Notice, how AR Antulay keeps his job, just to pander to "vote bank politics"


2. India asked USA to get Pakistan's approval for the surgical strikes, so that Pakistan does not retaliate. It is precisely for this reason Adm. Mike Mullen went to Pakistan to ask Pakistan to lay low when India strikes at terrorist training camps of LeT and others in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and near Lahore. It seems the civilian government gave its nod for "limited" Indian attacks in POK but not in mainland Pakistan, which includes areas near Lahore.


3. Mike Mullen fails in this as COAS Kiyani made it clear that regardless of how the civilan government chooses to respond to the US request to allow Indian ’surgical strikes’, Pakistan Army will not accept any Indian intrusion. The scrambling of jets over Lahore and Islamabad was part of this and the armed forces are alert and ready to defend against any Indian action.

Kiyani is also said to have told US Michael Mullen that in event of any aggression from India, the US and NATO can ‘forget about’ using Pakistan territory to supply their forces in Afghanistan as all resources will be diverted to defending against India on the eastern border.

Mike Mullen tells India, he fails in his effort.


We are thinking the US will solve our problems for us. Why ? Read this article : So you think the Americans will help India – WAKE UP !!

Two things need to be done immediately.

1. Snap diplomatic ties

2. Render Indus Water Treaty null and void and squeeze the Chenab tap from Himachal (far away from Pak army / airforce reach)


And lastly we need to get rid off this present government who has tried to hoax us by playing this game with us. Must say, Pranab Mukherjee does put up a good act. With elections coming, there will be sabre rattling, but no action on the ground. This government does not have an appetite for a war.

We have given too much time to one dynasty - one family, who has put our name and pride down the gutter.

Will not dwell on this much in this post, but I want to point out I have nothing "major" against Congress Party per se - except for two "major" issues: i) dynasty politics - much better people are not elevated to govern and ii) vote bank politics - will keep all these for a later post, before the elections
. At the same time these pseudo-rightwingers like MNS and Ram Sene attacking and behaving like louts deserve thrashing and jail sentences. We have every right to drink in moderation or move around with our girlfriends - holding hands if need be, as long as we maintain decency and I must say this - have not seen an indecent couple loitering around in Indian roads - ever!)

Last but not the least - LOOK WHO IS THREATENING INDIA NOW

AL-QAEDA:


"India should know that it will have to pay a heavy price if it attacks Pakistan," Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, believed to be al-Qaida's military commander in Afghanistan and ranked behind No 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Mujahideen will sunder your armies into the ground, like they did to the Russians in Afghanistan. They will target your economic centres and raze them to the ground."

Oh by the way, Pakistan Army claimed to have killed Mustafa Abu al Yazid just 6 months back to the US - and probably got cash for it too !!

TALIBAN (LeT, Lashkar e Jhangvi etc):


Baitullah Mehsud announced full support to the army against archrival India if it makes any aggression against the country. “Thousands of our well-armed Mujahideen are ready to fight alongside the (Pakistan) army if any war is imposed on Pakistan. Baitullah Mahsud said, hundreds of would-be bombers were given Martyrdom jackets and explosives-laden vehicles for protection of the border in case of any aggression by the Indian forces. “Our Mujahideen would be in the vanguard if fighting broke out. Our fighters will fall on the enemy like thunder."

ISI :


Ahmed Shuja Pasha declared Baitullah Mehsud as a TRUE PATRIOT.

Excuse me, were you not fighting against him and calling him a terrorist? Apparently not - the "deception" continues.

Al Qaeda + Taliban(& LeT etc) + ISI = TRUE Face of Pakistan ARMY. They are one and the same - the three muskateers.

INDIA - BOMB THE ECONOMIC INTERESTS OF PAK ARMY, PALATIAL HOUSES OF CURRENT AND EX PAK ARMY PERSONNEL AND BOMB THEIR PALACES IN MACAU TO RUBBLE.

We need a government that will give us the “FINAL SOLUTION” (= extermination of extremism) that will lead to peace and stability in the region.

Friday, February 6, 2009

PAKISTAN RELEASES A.Q.KHAN, GOING TO DECLARE HUJI-B AS 26/11 MASTERMINDS !

Two important decisions that Pakistan will take in the week (one already taken):

1. Freeing Abdul Qadeer Khan.

Known for his nuclear proliferation, Khan walked free from the “house arrest” in a pre-arranged deal reached earlier with the Musharraf government. That AQ Khan was not responsible for the logistics of the “nuclear” trade was well known to the intelligence community. The entire deal was swung by Pakistan Army (after all PAF planes were used too) in a quid pro quo deal with both China and North Korea.

If A.Q. Khan was not released, his elder daughter who had earlier ferreted out papers which implicated the Pakistan Army and ISI in the clandestine nuclear “Wal Mart”, would have released them, causing severe embarrassment and worse, international sanctions on Pakistan.

At a time, when it desperately needs cash, Pakistan would have buckled under.

From China, Pakistan received ready made nuclear devises and China even tested one for the Pakistanis at Lop Nor. From the North Koreans the Pakistanis received missiles which were just painted over with Pakistani colors.

North Korea received nuclear technology and parts. China received the superior Dutch enriching technology which AQ Khan stole.

Lashkar e Taiba and A.Q. Khan:

In April 2001, the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) held its annual public meeting in Pakistan. Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan attended the meeting as an honored guest. Accompanying Khan at the podium was Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, another Pakistani nuclear scientist who had met with Osama bin Laden the year before. He met with bin Laden again shortly before 9/11 and advise him on how to build a “dirty bomb”.

French journalist Bernard Henri-Levy, the author of a book about Pakistani militant Saeed Sheikh, will later claim in the Wall Street Journal that A Q Khan was a secret member of LeT.

Bernard Henri-Levy goes onto write in Wall Street Journal (9th Dec, 2008):
Far from concentrating only on the cause of Kashmir's independence, and most of all, far from existing only in the notorious and officially ungovernable "tribal zones" on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Lashkar-e-Taiba is an all-terrain group with great political influence. It includes militants in every city of the country: Peshawar, Muzaffarabad, Lahore and even Karachi (Pakistan's economic capital).

Since its creation 15 years ago, the Lashkar-e-Taiba has been linked to the ISI, the formidable Inter-Services Intelligence agency that operates like a state within a state in Pakistan. Obviously, this link is not widely publicized.

However, from the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl to the July 2005 attack on the Ayodhya Hindu temple in Uttar Pradesh, there is abundant evidence that the jihadist wing of the ISI has assisted the Lashkar-e-Taiba in the planning and financing of various operations.

Worse yet, the Lashkar-e-Taiba is, as I discovered while researching and reporting my book on Daniel Pearl, a group of which A.Q. Khan, the inventor of Pakistan's atomic bomb, was a longtime friend. Mr. Khan, one may recall, spent a good 15 years trafficking in nuclear secrets with Lybia, North Korea, Iran and, perhaps, al Qaeda, before confessing his guilt in early 2004.

No, this is not a dream -- it is reality. Pakistan is home to a man both father of his country's nuclear program and known sympathizer of an Islamist group whose latest demonstration (26/11) has netted at least 188 dead and several hundred wounded.

The Lashkar-e-Taiba is, ultimately, one of the constitutive elements of what is conventionally called al Qaeda. For too long we've told ourselves that al Qaeda no longer exists except as a brand; that it is only a pure signifier, "franchised" by local organizations independent of one another. Yet there indeed exists in our world what Osama bin Laden called the "International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders," which is like a constellation of atoms aggregated around a central nucleus. These atoms find themselves, for the most part, clustered in this new zone of tempests that forms the whole of Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.”

Taking it from here: the Bangladesh connection.

Read this very important article: Pakistan's forgotten Al Qaeda nuclear link. The connection of AQ Khan, ISI, Osama bin Laden and charity front Ummah Tameer e Nau (Hamid Gul was attached to this too).

2. It seems that Pakistan is all set to blame HuJI-B elements in Bangladesh and muslims in India for the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, clearly shifting the burden of proof from Pakistan.


If this is true, then the fiction coming out of Pakistan in recent years, will truly beat Aesop’s fables.

HuJI-B, ISI and LeT:

Agents of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, under the guise of HuJI-B cadres impart military training for three months to youths of both Bangladesh and India from bases in the Kurigram and Rangpur areas of Bangladesh, near the Coochbehar border.

Similar training camps reportedly also exist in Rangmari, Sundermari, Masaldanga and in other villages, where training is imparted in the use of sophisticated arms and setting off blasts. After training, the youth infiltrate into India and spread to various locations in West Bengal and States in the Northeast region, including Assam.

HUJI-B’s ‘operations commander’ and a key suspect in the plot to assassinate the then Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, in July 2000, Mufti Abdul Hannan, after his arrest in October 2005 admitted to have passed out of the Gouhardanga Madrassa in Pakistan. Police records in Gopalganj district also says that Hannan was trained in the Pakistani city of Peshawar and then sent to Afghanistan to fight the erstwhile Soviet Army.

The HuJI-B reportedly receives financial assistance from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan through Muslim Non-Governmental Organisations in Bangladesh, including the Adarsa Kutir, Al Faruk Islamic Foundation and Hataddin. It is also generously financed by the ISI of Pakistan.

Pratham Alo (Bangladesh newspaper) reported that the HuJI-B used to supply grenades to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) to carry out attacks in India.

An arrested HuJI-B leader Abu Zandal has told the police during his interrogation in Dhaka that the outfit had sent several consignments of grenades to the LeT operating in India until 2004.

The last such consignment however, could not be delivered as the LeT representative who was supposed to receive it was killed in an encounter with Border Security Force (BSF) near Bangladesh's Kaliganj frontier. Zandal reportedly told the interrogators that the LeT leader Yazdani, who was killed in 2006 by the Delhi Police, used to maintain links with the detained HuJI-B ‘operations commander’ Mufti Abdul Hannan. Zandal also claimed that the supply of ‘Arges’ grenades were being received from a fugitive, Maulana Tazuddin, believed to be hiding in South Africa.

Among the first incidents of HuJI-B's operations in India to come into the limelight was the August 1999 arrest of four persons at Guwahati. The arrested persons were identified as Muhammad Faisullah Hussaini of Hyderabad in Pakistan's Sindh province, Muhammad Javed Wakhar of Karachi, Maulana Hafiz Wakhar of Kupwara in Kashmir, and Qari Salim Muhammad of Muzaffarnagar in UP.

Interrogations revealed that all four had arrived in Dhaka from Karachi and had crossed over into India through the Karimganj border. They left behind a consignment of explosives in a mosque in Bangladesh for collection later, to be used for future operations in India. Intelligence sources used a decoy to bring this consignment into India. It consisted of 34 kilograms of RDX, nine timer devices and 30 detonators. They further revealed that the HuJI-B had recruited and sent a number of young immigrant Muslims from Assam to Pakistan via Bangladesh. Assam Police subsequently arrested Muhammad Muslimudeen, the Chief Organiser of the HuJI. Investigations also led to the finding that the Naib Amir (Deputy Chief) of HuJI-B in India, Muhammad Fakruddin, was an immigrant Bengali Muslim from Goalpara District in Assam and was based in Pakistan.

Waliullah, the 32 + yrs old Pesh Imam of a mosque in Phulpur near Allahabad, had gone to Pakistan for arms training. Waliullah, a former SIMI cadre, was HuJI-B's area commander for eastern UP. Waliullah's interrogation threw further light on the October 29, 2005, explosions at New Delhi. He revealed that one of three Bangladeshis, involved in the Varanasi attack was in fact a part of the team that carried out the blasts in New Delhi as well, along with cadres from LeT.

HuJI-B was actively involved in assassination plot of Awami League leader and current PM of Bangladesh – Sheikh Hasina. She remains their target more so than ever, fuelled by funds and logistics by ISI.

The important points to note:

A. NATO may be shifting logistics out from Pakistan sooner than later and the unintended beneficiary could well be India and Iran (Chabahar port, Zaranj Delaram highway et al)

B. Awami League is in power in Bangladesh. Any crackdown on HuJI-B in Bangladesh, could move the ISI to assassinate Sheikh Hasina ( hoping not to fail this time)

C. Shift the attention and stall time and focus away from ISI. The role of US remains dubious, as it has withdrawn its demands to interrogate AQ Khan.

D. ISI is short of funds and is concentrating on core activities. Hence coffers of Hurriyats are going empty and its offices are getting closed. Which means the monthly pension to the families of terrorists will also be affected. ISI will move core activities to Pakistan Army and LeT.

E. J-e-M supremo Azhar Mehmood is now being sheltered by Haqqani group (the same group that ISI paid to blow up the Indian embassy in Kabul).

F. Jamaat ud Dawa openly held rallies praising the 26/11 attacks in Islamabad, with the civilian government and police watching and guarding.

And all Indian foreign office said: “We are disappointed with Pakistan.”

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE : THE COMING DISASTER IN BANGLADESH AND WHAT ARE INDIA'S OPTIONS?

The article is divided into 8 (small) parts.

1. What are Green House Gases (GHG)
2. What is Green house effect
3. Carbon Sinks
4. Connection of GHG to climate change
5. Impact of Climate Change
6. Kyoto Protocol
7. INDIA
8. Coming disaster in Bangladesh


Green House Gases

Green House Gases (GHG) are essentially made up of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitric Oxides (NOx) and Fluorocarabons, in the following proportion:



Since carbon di-oxide is the main component of GHG, let us concentrate on reducing this (FCs are dangerous too – but let us not make this article complicated).

What is Green house effect?

The sun’s rays hits the surface of the earth and is bounced back into the atmosphere. The Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming solar radiation. The remaining 70% is absorbed, warming the land, atmosphere and ocean.

Simply put, GHG which covers the exo-atmosphere of earth, helps retain some of the rays of the sun that is bounced back from the surface of the earth, thus keeping the earth warm. The more the concentration of GHG, the more its ability to lock heat, thus heating up the earth’s temperature. Without the GHG cover, the earth’s average temperature could be as low as −18 °C (−0.4 °F). Hence GHG is a good thing – but having too much of it is also dangerous for earth.



We emit CO2 in atmosphere when we burn fossil fuel by driving cars, using electricity, burning coal, run inefficient factories etc. As economies grow, so does its capacity in releasing CO2 in the atmosphere.

There were natural carbon sinks that used to absorb the excess CO2. However the capacity of absorption has come down.

Natural Carbon Sinks:

The main natural carbon sinks are plants, the ocean and soil. Plants grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to use in photosynthesis; some of this carbon is transferred to soil as plants die and decompose. The oceans are a major carbon storage system for carbon dioxide (as much as 33%). Marine animals also take up the gas for photosynthesis, while some carbon dioxide simply dissolves in the seawater.

Combined, the Earth’s land and ocean sinks absorb about half of all carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. But these sinks, critical in the effort to soak up some of our greenhouse gas emissions, may be stopping up, thanks to deforestation (eg. Amazon jungle), and human-induced weather changes that are causing the oceanic carbon dioxide “sponge” to weaken.

About half of the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from human activities are absorbed by natural "sinks" on land and the oceans but the new study shows that the efficiency of these sinks has fallen significantly over the past half century. Fifty years ago, for every tonne of CO2 emitted, 600kg were removed by natural sinks. In 2006, only 550kg were removed per tonne and that amount is falling. The study also found that the amount of CO2 released into the air from human activities has accelerated in recent years not just because of the growth of the global economy but because, for the first time in a century, the efficiency with which fossil fuels are used has stagnated.

Linking GHG to Climate Change: (Stern Review)

Atmospheric concentration of GHGs are already at 430 ppm (parts per million), compared to 280 ppm before the Industrial revolution, and are slated to reach 550 ppm by 2050 at current emission levels. With accelerating emissions (very likely scenario), 550 ppm will be reached by 2035 bringing in a 77% chance of exceeding 2 degree average temperature rise. This is the maximum, scientists believe we can reach before dangerous climate change impact kicks in.

Earlier we have stated, how higher the concentration of GHG, higher is the “heat trapping” ability – with the consequence of heating up the earth – known as global warming or climate change.

Average temp rise as calibrated by scientists:



Impact of Climate Change:

A temperature rise of only 3 – 4 degrees (celcius) include the following:

- Entire regions experiencing major declines in crop yields
- Sea level rise (polar ice melt due to rise in temperature) threatening whole of Bangladesh, London, Shanghai, New York, Tokyo, Cairo etc
- Collapse of Amazon rain forest
- Collapse of Gulf Stream and irreversible climate feedbacks eg – methane release
- Collapse of all the world’s major glaciers and major flood risks
- Loss of 40% of world’s species
- Major health epidemics
- Losing at least 5% global GDP each year, now and forever.


KYOTO PROTOCOL(Treaty):

The treaty is intended to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by "Annex I" (industrialized) nations, as well as general commitments for all member countries. As of 2008, 183 parties have ratified the protocol.

However the biggest emitters are not legally binded to reduce GHG (USA - yet to join, China and India exempted as they are developing nations). This is the treaty's MAJOR drawback. Most nations have not been able to curb their emissions and it will be prudent to think that while this is a step forward, this may not work.

INDIA:

Between 1998 and 2007, India has lost more people due to extreme weather events caused by climate change than any other country, with an average of 4,532 people killed every year, a well-known German NGO has calculated.

The monetary losses were an average of $12 bn a year in terms of purchasing power parity, representing 0.62 percent of India's GDP.

Stern warned that temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees – well the news is that the effect of climate change on India could be far worse than previously estimated.

Latest projections indicate that after 2050, temperatures would rise by 3-4 degrees over current levels. Given the dire warnings, this will have cataclysmic effect on INDIA. However, the country to suffer more will be our immediate neighbour – BANGLADESH.

BANGLADESH:

Bangladesh is a low-lying country with three of the greatest rivers of the world - the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. It is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with its people living in very crowded conditions in a delta of rivers that empty into the Bay of Bengal. Poverty is widespread; almost half of the population live on less than one dollar a day, and are landless.

The population of Bangladesh which was 30 million in 1947, is 157 million today.

The climate scientist predict Bangladesh will be wiped out as a nation due to flooding as a consequence of global warming, due to increase in sea level rise. Polar Ice Caps will melt exacerbating this issue. Look at the picture below:


POLAR ICE CAP MELT

The danger to Bangladesh (and yes to parts of Bengal too - certainly KOLKATA)


BANGLADESH - IN GRAVE DANGER

Look at the consequent rise in sea levels given below.



Climate change is likely to heavily hit Bangladesh by breaking down agricultural systems, which would seriously affect Bangladesh, leaving large sections of people facing malnutrition, worsening freshwater scarcity, increasing risks of fatal diseases, and triggering mass displacement due to recurring severe floods and storms like the recent Cyclone Sidr.

With sea levels rising and rivers swelling in the coming decades, vast areas of the country would disappear, sparking an exodus of climate refugees. The terrible question is, where will they go?...

THEY WILL COME TO INDIA.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO INDIA IF THIS REFUGEE MIGRATION OCCURS – THIS WILL BE A HUMANITRIAN DISASTER AND HOW CAN INDIA STOP THIS FLOW?

As it is, Assam's demographic profile has changed, Bengal is getting infiltrated massively. All these present a "vote bank", but more than that, Muslims today have a say in over 200 seats. And I am not talking about domiciled Indian Muslims only who have the right to exercise their franchise - I am talking about the vast number of illegal migrants from Bangladesh that have been given voters ID card by Congress Party in Assam and by CPI (M) in Bengal who have together brought about this situation in India today (facts acknowledged by papers).

Imagine if they could influence over 350 seats, this nation will be under Muslim rule. The day is not far when these Muslims (illegal migrants + locals) will float a Jamaat party pan India and fight elections and get a majority. What then?

To both Congress Party and CPI (M) : When you brought in illegal migrants and gave them voters ID card to win elections - did you not realize the dangers they pose to the country. And in over 50 - 60 years they will be such large numbers that they can and will float a Jamaat like political party (see this happening in different states already) - which will have pan India character. Your grand children will not forgive you for the sins of today and neither will INDIA.

Read an equally important article : 900% of Islamic growth in India's neighbourhood and its consequences.

But who will care for all this in face of an impending humanitarian disaster?

Of course the Bangladeshis need to survive too. But what India can do or should do today … next blog. Please give your ideas too !

As MAX commented - what is happening to fencing? Well, here's what the fencing looks like in most of the stretch.



Hardly any resistance to any infiltrators. I have been to Agartala recently and Bangladeshis openly cross over during the day, ply their hand held carts / rickshaws, earn daily wage and by evening cross back into Bangladesh. All this very openly and in connivance with the BSF. In fact, the open smuggling across the border has both BSF (India) and BDR (Bangladesh) connivance. Home Minister Chidambaram said that India needs to speed up on border fencing. Hon'ble Home Minister, with such blatant violations, what is the point of having these flimsy fencing?

What is needed is "Great Wall of INDIA".

This is far too important a topic I feel.